Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 2.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.2%, FCF Yield is 12%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -0.2%, Dist 3Y High is -0.2%
Key risks
SRCE key risks include [1] elevated credit risk due to its significant concentration in commercial and commercial real estate loans.
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -81%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -13%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -37%
 
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 48%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 26%
  
4 Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%
Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 15%
  
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and Wealth Management Technology.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 2.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.2%, FCF Yield is 12%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -81%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 48%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 26%
4 Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%
Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 15%
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and Wealth Management Technology.
6 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -0.2%, Dist 3Y High is -0.2%
7 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -13%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -37%
8 Key risks
SRCE key risks include [1] elevated credit risk due to its significant concentration in commercial and commercial real estate loans.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SRCE Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the stock movement for 1st Source (SRCE) for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025: 1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Performance: The company reported strong third-quarter results, exceeding analysts' expectations for both net interest income and earnings per share (EPS). Specifically, 1st Source announced quarterly earnings results on October 24, 2025, beating EPS expectations by $0.12.

2. Increase in Quarterly Dividend: On October 28, 2025, 1st Source announced an increase in its dividend to $0.40 per share. A higher dividend often signals financial strength and can attract investors, contributing to positive stock movement.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SRCE Return-20%26%10%6%9%16%50%
Peers Return
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SRCE Win Rate58%67%33%50%42%67% 
Peers Win Rate 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SRCE Max Drawdown-47%-2%-12%-23%-13%-8% 
Peers Max Drawdown 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NEWT, ATLO, CBC, HYNE, NU.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSRCES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-31.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven46.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven439 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-47.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven90.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven654 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-34.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven52.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,402 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-56.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven127.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,745 days1,480 days

Compare to NEWT, ATLO, CBC, HYNE, NU


In The Past

1st Source's stock fell -31.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/10/2022. A -31.9% loss requires a 46.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About 1st Source (SRCE)

Better Bets than 1st Source (SRCE)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SRCE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.6%14.6%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.2%-4.2%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.4%4.4%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-10.5%-10.5%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.6%14.6%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.2%-4.2%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.4%4.4%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-10.5%-10.5%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for 1st Source

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SRCENEWTATLOCBCHYNENUMedian
Name1st Sour.NewtekOneAmes Nat.Central .Hoyne Ba.Nu  
Mkt Price66.2012.0823.7123.3113.7015.8619.59
Mkt Cap1.60.30.2--77.51.0
Rev LTM42126963-149,600269
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM187-52019--23,66619
FCF 3Y Avg189-22916--1,968102
CFO LTM201-51920--14,04020
CFO 3Y Avg198-22818--2,188108

Growth & Margins

SRCENEWTATLOCBCHYNENUMedian
Name1st Sour.NewtekOneAmes Nat.Central .Hoyne Ba.Nu  
Rev Chg LTM10.5%21.8%18.0%--22.3%19.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg7.0%31.6%0.3%--62.1%19.3%
Rev Chg Q13.0%20.7%22.9%-37.1%30.2%22.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.1%4.7%5.2%-7.8%7.1%5.2%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM47.8%-193.4%31.5%--10.8%42.1%31.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg50.6%-91.8%31.1%--21.7%26.4%
FCF/Rev LTM44.3%-193.4%30.8%--15.9%38.2%30.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg48.3%-91.9%27.1%--18.7%22.9%

Valuation

SRCENEWTATLOCBCHYNENUMedian
Name1st Sour.NewtekOneAmes Nat.Central .Hoyne Ba.Nu  
Mkt Cap1.60.30.2--77.51.0
P/S3.61.12.9--8.13.2
P/EBIT-------
P/E10.14.911.2--30.610.7
P/CFO7.5-0.69.1--19.28.3
Total Yield12.3%20.2%12.9%--3.3%12.6%
Dividend Yield2.5%0.0%4.0%--0.0%1.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg14.5%-76.1%-----30.8%
D/E0.12.6----1.3
Net D/E-0.81.8----0.5

Returns

SRCENEWTATLOCBCHYNENUMedian
Name1st Sour.NewtekOneAmes Nat.Central .Hoyne Ba.Nu  
1M Rtn10.9%23.4%14.5%--1.7%12.7%
3M Rtn5.2%2.2%17.2%---0.6%3.7%
6M Rtn13.5%19.4%40.0%--29.6%24.5%
12M Rtn8.8%-2.1%49.7%--35.6%22.2%
3Y Rtn35.2%-21.9%21.2%--306.7%28.2%
1M Excs Rtn10.2%22.7%13.8%--0.9%12.0%
3M Excs Rtn0.9%-3.3%14.5%---2.2%-0.7%
6M Excs Rtn1.1%7.0%27.6%--17.2%12.1%
12M Excs Rtn-3.9%-19.5%37.0%--21.8%8.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-36.6%-87.9%-50.4%--226.1%-43.5%

FDIC Bank Data

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Commercial Banking369355337330325
Total369355337330325


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity180,262
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520253.0%
Average Daily Volume67,595
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.67
Basic Shares Quantity24,472,035
Short % of Basic Shares0.7%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/23/20253.6%1.8%6.2%
7/24/2025-1.8%-3.5%4.0%
4/24/20253.2%5.3%6.9%
1/23/2025-0.0%9.2%12.4%
10/24/2024-3.4%-0.4%12.1%
7/25/20244.9%0.2%-1.4%
4/25/20240.4%-0.7%-0.8%
1/18/20244.8%5.5%0.8%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141215
# Negative10129
Median Positive2.6%5.4%8.1%
Median Negative-1.5%-3.2%-1.4%
Max Positive12.1%16.6%16.7%
Max Negative-8.0%-5.5%-6.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251023202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025724202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025424202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024218202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241024202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024725202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024425202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023220202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231019202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023720202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023420202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022216202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221020202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022721202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022421202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021217202210-K 12/31/2021