1st Source (SRCE)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $66.165 | Market Cap: $1.6 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks
1st Source (SRCE)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $66.165Market Cap: $1.6 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Regional Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 2.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.2%, FCF Yield is 12% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.2%, Dist 3Y High is -0.2% | Key risksSRCE key risks include [1] elevated credit risk due to its significant concentration in commercial and commercial real estate loans. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -81% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -13%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -37% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 48%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% | ||
| Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 15% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and Wealth Management Technology. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 2.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.2%, FCF Yield is 12% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -81% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 48%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% |
| Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 15% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and Wealth Management Technology. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.2%, Dist 3Y High is -0.2% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -13%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -37% |
| Key risksSRCE key risks include [1] elevated credit risk due to its significant concentration in commercial and commercial real estate loans. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SRCE Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the stock movement for 1st Source (SRCE) for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Performance: The company reported strong third-quarter results, exceeding analysts' expectations for both net interest income and earnings per share (EPS). Specifically, 1st Source announced quarterly earnings results on October 24, 2025, beating EPS expectations by $0.12.
2. Increase in Quarterly Dividend: On October 28, 2025, 1st Source announced an increase in its dividend to $0.40 per share. A higher dividend often signals financial strength and can attract investors, contributing to positive stock movement.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SRCE Return | -20% | 26% | 10% | 6% | 9% | 16% | 50% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SRCE Win Rate | 58% | 67% | 33% | 50% | 42% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SRCE Max Drawdown | -47% | -2% | -12% | -23% | -13% | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NEWT, ATLO, CBC, HYNE, NU.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SRCE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -31.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 439 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -47.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 90.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 654 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -34.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,402 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -56.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 127.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,745 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to NEWT, ATLO, CBC, HYNE, NU
In The Past
1st Source's stock fell -31.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/10/2022. A -31.9% loss requires a 46.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SRCE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.2% | -4.2% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.4% | 4.4% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.5% | -10.5% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.2% | -4.2% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.4% | 4.4% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.5% | -10.5% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for 1st Source
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 19.59 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.0 |
| Rev LTM | 269 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 19 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 102 |
| CFO LTM | 20 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 108 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 19.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 19.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 22.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 31.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 26.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 30.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.0 |
| P/S | 3.2 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 10.7 |
| P/CFO | 8.3 |
| Total Yield | 12.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -30.8% |
| D/E | 1.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 12.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 3.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 24.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 22.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 28.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 12.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -0.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 12.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 8.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -43.5% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/23/2025 | 3.6% | 1.8% | 6.2% |
| 7/24/2025 | -1.8% | -3.5% | 4.0% |
| 4/24/2025 | 3.2% | 5.3% | 6.9% |
| 1/23/2025 | -0.0% | 9.2% | 12.4% |
| 10/24/2024 | -3.4% | -0.4% | 12.1% |
| 7/25/2024 | 4.9% | 0.2% | -1.4% |
| 4/25/2024 | 0.4% | -0.7% | -0.8% |
| 1/18/2024 | 4.8% | 5.5% | 0.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 12 | 15 |
| # Negative | 10 | 12 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 2.6% | 5.4% | 8.1% |
| Median Negative | -1.5% | -3.2% | -1.4% |
| Max Positive | 12.1% | 16.6% | 16.7% |
| Max Negative | -8.0% | -5.5% | -6.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10232025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7242025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2182025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10242024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7252024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2202024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10192023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7202023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4202023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10202022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7212022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4212022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2172022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
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