Mastercard (MA)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $542.31 | Market Cap: $492.4 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Mastercard (MA)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $542.31Market Cap: $492.4 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 58% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -18%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -12% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 17x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 30x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 30x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 38x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 56%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 52%, CFO LTM is 17 Bil, FCF LTM is 16 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, E-commerce & Digital Retail, AI in Financial Services, Cybersecurity, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 58% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 56%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 52%, CFO LTM is 17 Bil, FCF LTM is 16 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, E-commerce & Digital Retail, AI in Financial Services, Cybersecurity, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -18%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -12% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 17x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 30x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 30x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 38x |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Mastercard's stock performance between August 31, 2025, and December 5, 2025, shows a mix of positive financial results and some fluctuations in stock price. However, the available information does not indicate an overall decline of -8.8% for the entire period. Instead, it highlights strong operational performance and a generally positive outlook. For instance, as of December 3, 2025, Mastercard's stock was trading at $552.51, up 1.21% on the day, with its market capitalization exceeding $496 billion. Similarly, on December 4, 2025, the stock closed just under $545, down about 1.6% on the day, but analysts still projected high-teens percentage upside over the next 12 months.
Here are key points from the approximate time period that could influence stock movement:
1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Performance. Mastercard reported robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) of $4.38, surpassing analyst estimates. Quarterly revenue also increased by 16.7% year-over-year to $8.60 billion, exceeding consensus estimates. Net revenues rose 15% year-over-year on a non-GAAP currency-neutral basis, driven by a 22% surge in value-added services and solutions. This marked the 20th consecutive quarter that Mastercard exceeded analyst consensus for net revenue.
2. Proposed Merchant Settlement. In early November 2025, Mastercard and Visa announced a proposed settlement with merchants to resolve 20 years of antitrust litigation. The settlement includes lowering swipe fees by 0.1% for five years and allowing merchants to implement surcharges for higher-fee cards. It also eliminates the "honor all cards" rule, enabling merchants to honor cards within specific categories. This proposed settlement is viewed as a positive development.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MA Return | 20% | 1% | -3% | 23% | 24% | 4% | 88% |
| Peers Return | 30% | 14% | -22% | 22% | 37% | 7% | 106% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MA Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 42% | 67% | 67% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 58% | 38% | 60% | 67% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MA Max Drawdown | -32% | -14% | -21% | -1% | -2% | -9% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -37% | -11% | -31% | -8% | -4% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: V, AXP, COF, PYPL, MA. See MA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 272 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -41.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 155 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -22.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 64 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -62.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 168.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 925 days | 1480 days |
Compare to V, AXP, COF, PYPL, MA
In The Past
Mastercard's stock fell -28.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/2/2022. A -28.6% loss requires a 40.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
| 10312022 | MA | Mastercard | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 16.1% | 15.4% | -5.8% |
| 04302022 | MA | Mastercard | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -9.0% | 5.2% | -21.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
| 10312022 | MA | Mastercard | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 16.1% | 15.4% | -5.8% |
| 04302022 | MA | Mastercard | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -9.0% | 5.2% | -21.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Mastercard
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 327.10 |
| Mkt Cap | 256.8 |
| Rev LTM | 40,000 |
| Op Inc LTM | 17,645 |
| FCF LTM | 18,944 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 16,904 |
| CFO LTM | 21,139 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 18,801 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 58.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 58.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 46.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 50.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 43.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 46.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 256.8 |
| P/S | 3.3 |
| P/EBIT | 17.8 |
| P/E | 22.0 |
| P/CFO | 10.9 |
| Total Yield | 4.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.6% |
| 6M Rtn | -7.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 6.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 56.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -10.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -22.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -9.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -12.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payment Solutions | 25,098 | ||||
| Payment network | 14,358 | 11,943 | |||
| Value-added services and solutions | 7,879 | 6,941 | |||
| Cross-border volume fees | 3,512 | 5,606 | |||
| Domestic assessments | 6,656 | 6,781 | |||
| Other revenues | 4,717 | 4,124 | |||
| Rebates and incentives (contra-revenue) | -8,315 | -8,097 | |||
| Transaction processing | 8,731 | 8,469 | |||
| Total | 25,098 | 22,237 | 18,884 | 15,301 | 16,883 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2122025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2132024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2142023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2112022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
