Tearsheet

Mastercard (MA)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $542.31 | Market Cap: $492.4 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services

Mastercard (MA)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $542.31
Market Cap: $492.4 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 58%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -18%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -12%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 17x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 30x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 30x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 38x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 56%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 52%, CFO LTM is 17 Bil, FCF LTM is 16 Bil
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 22%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, E-commerce & Digital Retail, AI in Financial Services, Cybersecurity, Show more.
  
0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 58%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 56%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 52%, CFO LTM is 17 Bil, FCF LTM is 16 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 22%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, E-commerce & Digital Retail, AI in Financial Services, Cybersecurity, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -18%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -12%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 17x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 30x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 30x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 38x

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MA Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Mastercard's stock performance between August 31, 2025, and December 5, 2025, shows a mix of positive financial results and some fluctuations in stock price. However, the available information does not indicate an overall decline of -8.8% for the entire period. Instead, it highlights strong operational performance and a generally positive outlook. For instance, as of December 3, 2025, Mastercard's stock was trading at $552.51, up 1.21% on the day, with its market capitalization exceeding $496 billion. Similarly, on December 4, 2025, the stock closed just under $545, down about 1.6% on the day, but analysts still projected high-teens percentage upside over the next 12 months. Here are key points from the approximate time period that could influence stock movement:

1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Performance. Mastercard reported robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) of $4.38, surpassing analyst estimates. Quarterly revenue also increased by 16.7% year-over-year to $8.60 billion, exceeding consensus estimates. Net revenues rose 15% year-over-year on a non-GAAP currency-neutral basis, driven by a 22% surge in value-added services and solutions. This marked the 20th consecutive quarter that Mastercard exceeded analyst consensus for net revenue.

2. Proposed Merchant Settlement. In early November 2025, Mastercard and Visa announced a proposed settlement with merchants to resolve 20 years of antitrust litigation. The settlement includes lowering swipe fees by 0.1% for five years and allowing merchants to implement surcharges for higher-fee cards. It also eliminates the "honor all cards" rule, enabling merchants to honor cards within specific categories. This proposed settlement is viewed as a positive development.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MA Return20%1%-3%23%24%4%88%
Peers Return30%14%-22%22%37%7%106%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MA Win Rate58%58%42%67%67%60% 
Peers Win Rate60%58%38%60%67%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MA Max Drawdown-32%-14%-21%-1%-2%-9% 
Peers Max Drawdown-37%-11%-31%-8%-4%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: V, AXP, COF, PYPL, MA. See MA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMAS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-28.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven272 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-41.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven69.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven155 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-22.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven28.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven64 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-62.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven168.5%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven925 days1480 days

Compare to V, AXP, COF, PYPL, MA


In The Past

Mastercard's stock fell -28.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/2/2022. A -28.6% loss requires a 40.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Mastercard (MA)

Better Bets than Mastercard (MA)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
15.2%15.2%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.5%-2.5%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.2%-6.2%-11.0%
MA_10312022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312022MAMastercardMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
16.1%15.4%-5.8%
MA_4302022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper04302022MAMastercardMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-9.0%5.2%-21.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
15.2%15.2%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.5%-2.5%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.2%-6.2%-11.0%
MA_10312022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312022MAMastercardMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
16.1%15.4%-5.8%
MA_4302022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper04302022MAMastercardMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-9.0%5.2%-21.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Mastercard

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MAVAXPCOFPYPLMedian
NameMasterca.Visa American.Capital .PayPal  
Mkt Price542.31327.10371.15229.7161.73327.10
Mkt Cap492.4423.3256.8146.858.6256.8
Rev LTM30,24140,00070,42848,23132,86240,000
Op Inc LTM17,64526,556--6,29617,645
FCF LTM15,86721,57718,94420,8455,56518,944
FCF 3Y Avg12,41219,98916,90421,0635,26516,904
CFO LTM16,95323,05921,13922,3356,42621,139
CFO 3Y Avg13,56621,25518,80122,2595,97218,801

Growth & Margins

MAVAXPCOFPYPLMedian
NameMasterca.Visa American.Capital .PayPal  
Rev Chg LTM14.6%11.3%9.1%25.4%4.5%11.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg13.2%10.9%11.6%13.4%6.7%11.6%
Rev Chg Q16.8%11.5%10.8%54.4%7.3%11.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.0%2.8%2.6%12.7%1.8%2.8%
Op Mgn LTM58.3%66.4%--19.2%58.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg58.2%66.8%--17.9%58.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.3%-0.1%--0.1%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM56.1%57.6%30.0%46.3%19.6%46.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg50.4%58.9%29.2%55.1%19.0%50.4%
FCF/Rev LTM52.5%53.9%26.9%43.2%16.9%43.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg46.0%55.4%26.3%52.2%16.8%46.0%

Valuation

MAVAXPCOFPYPLMedian
NameMasterca.Visa American.Capital .PayPal  
Mkt Cap492.4423.3256.8146.858.6256.8
P/S17.111.03.32.81.93.3
P/EBIT30.117.8--9.817.8
P/E38.022.021.896.013.022.0
P/CFO30.519.210.96.19.910.9
Total Yield2.6%5.3%4.6%2.0%7.7%4.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.8%0.0%0.9%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.7%4.6%10.7%36.3%7.5%7.5%
D/E0.00.10.30.40.20.2
Net D/E0.00.00.0-0.10.00.0

Returns

MAVAXPCOFPYPLMedian
NameMasterca.Visa American.Capital .PayPal  
1M Rtn-1.9%-3.7%3.0%4.5%-6.4%-1.9%
3M Rtn-8.8%-6.6%12.5%1.9%-9.6%-6.6%
6M Rtn-7.1%-10.5%26.0%20.4%-14.6%-7.1%
12M Rtn4.7%6.3%24.0%25.4%-30.7%6.3%
3Y Rtn55.0%56.6%146.8%154.6%-16.0%56.6%
1M Excs Rtn-3.2%-5.0%1.7%3.2%-7.6%-3.2%
3M Excs Rtn-12.8%-10.3%8.3%-1.7%-15.2%-10.3%
6M Excs Rtn-22.6%-25.9%10.6%5.0%-30.1%-22.6%
12M Excs Rtn-10.7%-9.4%10.7%10.7%-41.9%-9.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-12.4%-13.2%76.2%63.8%-93.6%-12.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Payment Solutions25,098    
Payment network 14,35811,943  
Value-added services and solutions 7,8796,941  
Cross-border volume fees   3,5125,606
Domestic assessments   6,6566,781
Other revenues   4,7174,124
Rebates and incentives (contra-revenue)   -8,315-8,097
Transaction processing   8,7318,469
Total25,09822,23718,88415,30116,883


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6,383,599
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120252.5%
Average Daily Volume2,330,474
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.74
Basic Shares Quantity908,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares0.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024212202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024731202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024501202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023213202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231026202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022214202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221027202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022428202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021211202210-K 12/31/2021