Mastercard (MA)
Market Price (12/22/2025): $570.0 | Market Cap: $517.6 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Mastercard (MA)
Market Price (12/22/2025): $570.0Market Cap: $517.6 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 58% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.3%, Dist 3Y High is -4.3% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 17x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 30x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 31x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 38x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 56%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 52%, CFO LTM is 17 Bil, FCF LTM is 16 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -6.5%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -8.2% | Key risksMA key risks include [1] global legal and regulatory challenges targeting its core interchange fee model and [2] potential disintermediation by emerging payment technologies like digital wallets and real-time payment rails. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, E-commerce & Digital Retail, AI in Financial Services, Cybersecurity, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 58% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 56%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 52%, CFO LTM is 17 Bil, FCF LTM is 16 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, E-commerce & Digital Retail, AI in Financial Services, Cybersecurity, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.3%, Dist 3Y High is -4.3% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -6.5%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -8.2% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 17x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 30x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 31x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 38x |
| Key risksMA key risks include [1] global legal and regulatory challenges targeting its core interchange fee model and [2] potential disintermediation by emerging payment technologies like digital wallets and real-time payment rails. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
I cannot provide a definitive explanation for a -3.7% stock movement for Mastercard (MA) between August 31, 2025, and December 22, 2025, as this period is in the future. However, I can highlight recent news and analyses regarding Mastercard's performance and outlook around that time, which may indicate potential influencing factors for stock movements.
1. Q4 2024 Earnings and 2025 Outlook: Mastercard reported strong Q4 2024 earnings, with net revenue increasing by 16% and adjusted net income rising by 19% on a non-GAAP currency-neutral basis. The company projected revenue growth in the high end of the low double digits to low teens for 2025, driven by steady consumer and commercial spending and strategic initiatives. This generally positive outlook for 2025 could create upward pressure, making a -3.7% drop potentially attributable to other factors or short-term market reactions.
2. Stock Repurchase Program and Dividend Increase: In December 2025, Mastercard announced a new share repurchase program of up to $14 billion and increased its quarterly dividend by 14% (from $0.76 to $0.87 per share). These capital return initiatives reflect confidence in the company's financial health and are typically positive for investor sentiment, potentially counteracting a stock decline.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MA Return | 20% | 1% | -3% | 23% | 24% | 8% | 96% |
| Peers Return | 30% | -6% | -20% | 20% | 33% | -17% | 29% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MA Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 42% | 67% | 67% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 52% | 42% | 58% | 63% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MA Max Drawdown | -32% | -14% | -21% | -1% | -2% | -9% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -33% | -20% | -29% | -7% | -8% | -34% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: V, AXP, PYPL, FISV, GPN. See MA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 272 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -41.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 155 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -22.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 64 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -62.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 168.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 925 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to V, AXP, COF, PYPL, MA
In The Past
Mastercard's stock fell -28.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/2/2022. A -28.6% loss requires a 40.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.5% | 13.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.0% | 2.0% | -0.5% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.8% | -4.8% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.8% | 5.8% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.1% | -12.1% | -12.1% |
| 10312022 | MA | Mastercard | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 16.1% | 15.4% | -5.8% |
| 04302022 | MA | Mastercard | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -9.0% | 5.2% | -21.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.5% | 13.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.0% | 2.0% | -0.5% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.8% | -4.8% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.8% | 5.8% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.1% | -12.1% | -12.1% |
| 10312022 | MA | Mastercard | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 16.1% | 15.4% | -5.8% |
| 04302022 | MA | Mastercard | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -9.0% | 5.2% | -21.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Mastercard
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 215.05 |
| Mkt Cap | 158.7 |
| Rev LTM | 31,552 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,296 |
| FCF LTM | 10,716 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 8,838 |
| CFO LTM | 11,690 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 9,769 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 28.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 27.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 31.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 26.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 24.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 158.7 |
| P/S | 2.8 |
| P/EBIT | 8.7 |
| P/E | 17.0 |
| P/CFO | 10.6 |
| Total Yield | 6.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 4.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -9.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 29.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -23.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -46.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payment Solutions | 25,098 | ||||
| Payment network | 14,358 | 11,943 | |||
| Value-added services and solutions | 7,879 | 6,941 | |||
| Cross-border volume fees | 3,512 | 5,606 | |||
| Domestic assessments | 6,656 | 6,781 | |||
| Other revenues | 4,717 | 4,124 | |||
| Rebates and incentives (contra-revenue) | -8,315 | -8,097 | |||
| Transaction processing | 8,731 | 8,469 | |||
| Total | 25,098 | 22,237 | 18,884 | 15,301 | 16,883 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/30/2025 | -0.2% | -0.2% | -1.9% |
| 7/31/2025 | 1.3% | 1.8% | 5.6% |
| 5/1/2025 | -0.3% | 3.3% | 6.8% |
| 1/30/2025 | 3.1% | 3.2% | 5.0% |
| 10/31/2024 | -2.7% | 1.4% | 3.7% |
| 7/31/2024 | 3.6% | 0.2% | 5.4% |
| 5/1/2024 | -2.0% | 0.4% | -2.0% |
| 1/31/2024 | 0.9% | 3.4% | 6.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 16 | 15 |
| # Negative | 12 | 8 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 2.3% | 3.0% | 6.8% |
| Median Negative | -1.5% | -2.6% | -3.4% |
| Max Positive | 7.2% | 15.1% | 15.1% |
| Max Negative | -8.1% | -6.8% | -10.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2122025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2132024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2142023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2112022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
