Mastercard (MA)


Market Price (8/6/2026): $570.02 | Market Cap: $502.8 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Financials | Industry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services

Mastercard (MA)


Market Price (8/6/2026): $570.02
Market Cap: $502.8 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 60%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 50%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%, CFO LTM is 17 Bil, FCF LTM is 16 Bil

Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 35 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 22%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, E-commerce & Digital Retail, AI in Financial Services, Cybersecurity, Show more.

Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.2%, Dist 3Y High is -4.2%

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -15%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -21%

Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 14x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 24x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 29x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 31x

Key risks
MA key risks include [1] global legal and regulatory challenges targeting its core interchange fee model and [2] potential disintermediation by emerging payment technologies like digital wallets and real-time payment rails.

0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 60%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 50%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%, CFO LTM is 17 Bil, FCF LTM is 16 Bil
2 Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 35 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 22%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, E-commerce & Digital Retail, AI in Financial Services, Cybersecurity, Show more.
5 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.2%, Dist 3Y High is -4.2%
6 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -15%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -21%
7 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 14x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 24x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 29x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 31x
8 Key risks
MA key risks include [1] global legal and regulatory challenges targeting its core interchange fee model and [2] potential disintermediation by emerging payment technologies like digital wallets and real-time payment rails.

MA in ETFs

Weight = MA's share of each fund

SPY0.70%
VOO0.64%
IVV0.73%
VTI0.58%
ITOT0.64%
IWB0.68%
RSP0.23%
VUG1.1%
+34 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 8/1/2026

Mastercard (MA) stock has gained about 15% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Strong Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Beat: Mastercard reported robust financial results for its fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 2026), with adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $5.04, surpassing the consensus estimate of $4.77 by 5.7%. Net revenue also exceeded expectations, reaching $9.28 billion against a forecast of $9.08 billion, representing a 14.1% year-over-year increase. Profit climbed 21.0% in the quarter.

2. Robust Growth in Core Payment Network and Cross-Border Volumes: The company's core payment network demonstrated strong performance, with worldwide gross dollar volume (GDV) increasing 8% year-over-year on a local-currency basis to $2.88 trillion. Crucially, cross-border volume surged 12% in local currency, primarily driven by resilient international travel spending and an increase in card-not-present transactions.

Show more
Updated on 8/1/2026

Mastercard (MA) stock has gained about 15% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Strong Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Beat: Mastercard reported robust financial results for its fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 2026), with adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $5.04, surpassing the consensus estimate of $4.77 by 5.7%. Net revenue also exceeded expectations, reaching $9.28 billion against a forecast of $9.08 billion, representing a 14.1% year-over-year increase. Profit climbed 21.0% in the quarter.

2. Robust Growth in Core Payment Network and Cross-Border Volumes: The company's core payment network demonstrated strong performance, with worldwide gross dollar volume (GDV) increasing 8% year-over-year on a local-currency basis to $2.88 trillion. Crucially, cross-border volume surged 12% in local currency, primarily driven by resilient international travel spending and an increase in card-not-present transactions.

3. Expansion and Strong Performance of Value-Added Services: Mastercard's diversification strategy proved successful, as revenue from its value-added services and solutions segment grew 20% year-over-year. This growth outpaced the core payment network, highlighting the increasing contribution of these services to the company's overall revenue and profitability.

4. Significant Share Repurchase Program: The company actively returned capital to shareholders through a substantial share repurchase program. Mastercard repurchased $4.9 billion of its stock during fiscal Q2 2026, with an additional $700 million bought back through late July 2026. These buybacks contributed approximately $0.14 to adjusted EPS, enhancing per-share earnings by reducing the outstanding share count.

5. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Raised Price Targets: Following the impressive fiscal Q2 2026 results, numerous financial analysts reiterated "Buy" ratings and increased their price targets for Mastercard stock. This positive sentiment was reflected in an average price target that implied approximately 15% potential upside, indicating strong confidence in the company's continued growth trajectory.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 13.6% change in MA stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 7.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)43020268052026Change
Stock Price ($)502.08570.4813.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)33,93935,0833.4%
Net Income Margin (%)45.9%46.3%1.0%
P/E Multiple28.731.07.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)8918821.0%
Cumulative Contribution13.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2026 to 8/5/2026
ReturnCorrelation
MA13.6% 
Market (SPY)7.1%-11.5%
Sector (XLF)11.3%52.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The 6.2% change in MA stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 11.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)13120268052026Change
Stock Price ($)536.97570.486.2%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)31,47435,08311.5%
Net Income Margin (%)45.3%46.3%2.3%
P/E Multiple34.031.0-9.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)9038822.4%
Cumulative Contribution6.2%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2026 to 8/5/2026
ReturnCorrelation
MA6.2% 
Market (SPY)11.5%13.8%
Sector (XLF)9.1%60.2%

Fundamental Drivers

The 1.3% change in MA stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 16.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)73120258052026Change
Stock Price ($)562.96570.481.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)30,24135,08316.0%
Net Income Margin (%)44.9%46.3%3.1%
P/E Multiple37.631.0-17.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)9088822.9%
Cumulative Contribution1.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2025 to 8/5/2026
ReturnCorrelation
MA1.3% 
Market (SPY)22.8%20.6%
Sector (XLF)12.1%64.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The 47.3% change in MA stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 48.7% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)73120238052026Change
Stock Price ($)387.31570.4847.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)23,59035,08348.7%
Net Income Margin (%)43.4%46.3%6.9%
P/E Multiple35.831.0-13.6%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)9468827.3%
Cumulative Contribution47.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2023 to 8/5/2026
ReturnCorrelation
MA47.3% 
Market (SPY)74.1%50.2%
Sector (XLF)71.5%69.3%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
MA Return1%-3%23%24%9%1%65%
Peers Return-6%-21%20%33%-18%-0%-2%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%13%106%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MA Win Rate58%42%67%67%58%38% 
Peers Win Rate52%42%58%63%45%45% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MA Max Drawdown-22%-28%-13%-12%-17%-18% 
Peers Max Drawdown-31%-36%-21%-16%-39%-26% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: V, AXP, PYPL, FISV, GPN. See MA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/5/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventMAS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-15.6%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven18.5%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven31 days79 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-23.2%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven30.1%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven89 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-41.0%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven69.5%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven154 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-21.6%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven27.6%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven60 days105 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-17.3%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven20.9%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven70 days62 days
2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash
  % Loss-26.5%-15.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven36.0%18.2%
  Time to Breakeven301 days125 days

Compare to V, AXP, PYPL, FISV, GPN

In The Past

Mastercard's stock fell -15.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventMAS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-23.2%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven30.1%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven89 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-41.0%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven69.5%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven154 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-21.6%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven27.6%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven60 days105 days
2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash
  % Loss-26.5%-15.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven36.0%18.2%
  Time to Breakeven301 days125 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-42.9%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven75.1%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven217 days1085 days
Summer 2007 Credit Crunch
  % Loss-23.1%-8.6%
  % Gain to Breakeven30.1%9.5%
  Time to Breakeven77 days47 days

Compare to V, AXP, PYPL, FISV, GPN

In The Past

Mastercard's stock fell -15.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Mastercard (MA)

Mastercard (MA) is a global technology company that serves as a vital intermediary in the electronic payment ecosystem. Its core business involves facilitating the processing of payment transactions, which includes critical steps like authorization, clearing, and settlement. Essentially, Mastercard provides the underlying infrastructure and technology that allows consumers, merchants, and financial institutions to conduct secure and efficient digital transactions worldwide.

Beyond its fundamental transaction processing, Mastercard offers a comprehensive suite of products and value-added services. These include various consumer and commercial credit and debit payment solutions, prepaid card programs, and systems that enable access to funds in deposit and other accounts. The company also provides advanced services such as cyber and intelligence solutions for enhanced security, proprietary data insights, analytics, consulting, loyalty programs, and payment gateway solutions for e-commerce. Furthermore, Mastercard is developing innovative platforms in areas like open banking and digital identity. Its widely recognized brands include MasterCard, Maestro, and Cirrus.

Mastercard operates internationally, serving a broad and diverse customer base. Its primary clients include financial institutions that issue payment cards, merchants who accept payments, individual account holders (consumers), businesses, and governmental organizations. By offering a robust portfolio of payment-related technologies and services, Mastercard empowers these various entities to participate in and benefit from the global digital economy.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Mastercard is like **Visa**, a global network and technology provider that processes credit and debit card payments between banks and merchants.
  • Mastercard is like **AT&T** or **Verizon** for money, building and maintaining the essential global network infrastructure that enables card transactions to flow.
  • Mastercard is like **Amazon Web Services (AWS)** for payments, providing the fundamental digital infrastructure and services that power card transactions worldwide.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Payment Transaction Processing: Facilitates the authorization, clearing, and settlement of payment transactions for various stakeholders.
  • Credit and Debit Payment Products: Offers a range of solutions for consumers and businesses, including credit, debit, and prepaid programs.
  • Value-Added Services:
    • Cyber & Intelligence Solutions: Provides security-focused solutions to enable safe and secure transactions.
    • Data & Analytics Services: Delivers proprietary insights, analytics, consulting, and test-and-learn services based on payment data.
    • Loyalty Solutions: Offers programs and services designed to enhance customer loyalty.
    • E-commerce Gateway Solutions: Provides processing and payment gateway services tailored for online merchants.
  • Platform Services:
    • Open Banking Platforms: Facilitates secure data exchange and interoperability within the financial ecosystem.
    • Digital Identity Platforms: Offers services for the verification and management of digital identities.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Mastercard (MA) primarily sells its payment processing technology, products, and services to other companies and organizations, rather than directly to individual consumers. Its major customers include:

  • Financial Institutions: These are banks, credit unions, and other financial entities that issue Mastercard-branded credit, debit, and prepaid cards to consumers and businesses. They also act as acquirers, processing transactions from merchants. Major examples include:
    • JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)
    • Bank of America Corp. (BAC)
    • Citigroup Inc. (C)
  • Merchants: Businesses of all sizes that accept Mastercard payments. Mastercard provides the underlying network and processing capabilities that enable merchants to accept payments, and also offers payment gateway solutions for e-commerce merchants.
  • Governments and Other Organizations: Mastercard provides payment solutions and services to various government entities and other large organizations.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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AI Analysis | Feedback

Michael Miebach, Chief Executive Officer

Michael Miebach has served as the Chief Executive Officer of Mastercard since January 2021, and he is also a member of the company's board of directors. He joined Mastercard in 2010 and previously held roles as Chief Product Officer and President. Before his tenure at Mastercard, Miebach gained extensive experience in financial services and payments through senior positions at Citibank, starting his professional career there in 1994, and Barclays Bank. At Mastercard, he initially led operations for the Middle East and Africa region, contributing to financial inclusion efforts. He has been instrumental in expanding Mastercard's offerings from a card-centric business to a broader payment platform encompassing real-time payments, open banking, and digital identity. His leadership includes overseeing acquisitions like Vocalink and Finicity, which expanded Mastercard's payment flows. Miebach is also active on the boards of organizations such as IBM, the World Resources Institute, the American Red Cross, and the Metropolitan Opera. He is also a member of the U.S. Treasury Advisory Committee on Racial Equity and serves on the board of the non-profit Accion.

Sachin Mehra, Chief Financial Officer

Sachin Mehra is the Chief Financial Officer for Mastercard, a role he has held since April 2019. He is a member of the company's Executive Leadership Team and Management Committee. Mehra joined Mastercard in June 2010 and has over 20 years of financial leadership experience. Prior to Mastercard, he held senior treasury and finance positions at Hess Corporation, General Motors, and GMAC, with a career that included international assignments in New York, Singapore, Belgium, and Shanghai. He currently serves on the board of Salesforce.

Jorn Lambert, Chief Product Officer

Jorn Lambert serves as Mastercard's Chief Product Officer, a position he assumed in May 2024, and is a member of the company's Management Committee. He joined Mastercard in 2002 and has held various leadership roles, including Chief Digital Officer (2020–2024), EVP Digital Solutions (2018–2020), EVP Digital Channels (2013–2018), and Group Head, Emerging Payments, Europe (2002–2013). Before joining Mastercard, Lambert spent several years in capital markets, where he held management positions in product development, product management, and corporate strategy. He is responsible for developing innovative and secure payment solutions and leads the Core Payments team, which focuses on advanced payment products and platforms.

Raja Rajamannar, Chief Marketing & Communications Officer, President of Healthcare business

Raja Rajamannar is the Chief Marketing & Communications Officer for Mastercard and also serves as the President of the company's healthcare business. He joined Mastercard in 2013, bringing with him over 30 years of experience as a global executive across diverse industries including consumer packaged goods, financial services, healthcare, payments, and utilities. His previous roles include Chief Transformation Officer at Elevance (formerly Anthem) and Chief Innovation & Marketing Officer at Humana. Rajamannar also held senior management positions at Unilever and Citibank, and notably served as Chairman and CEO of Diners Club, North America, where he led its turnaround. He is the author of "Quantum Marketing" and is President of the World Federation of Advertisers (WFA).

Chiro Aikat, Co-President, United States

Chiro Aikat is the Co-President, United States, for Mastercard. In this role, he oversees U.S. acceptance, which includes merchants, acquirers, governments, processors, and fintechs, as well as the commercial center of excellence and public sector engagement in the U.S. Aikat has been with Mastercard for two decades, playing an integral role in implementing various products and programs across the U.S. market. He previously led the U.S. market development and product and engineering teams, focusing on key initiatives such as Mastercard Instalments, open banking, real-time payments, and cybersecurity services. Early in his career, he was part of the efforts to transition the U.S. market to the EMV chip standard and introduce contactless payments in North America.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Competition and Technological Disruption: Mastercard faces intense competition from established payment networks like Visa, as well as an increasing number of fintech companies, digital wallets, and alternative payment methods. The emergence of new technologies such as real-time payments, blockchain-based solutions, and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) could disrupt traditional payment rails, potentially reducing the reliance on card-based transactions and impacting Mastercard's transaction volumes and market share.
  • Regulatory and Legal Risks: The global payments industry is highly regulated, and Mastercard is subject to a complex and evolving landscape of laws and regulations related to interchange fees, data privacy (e.g., GDPR, CCPA), anti-money laundering, and antitrust. Adverse regulatory changes, increased scrutiny of business practices, or negative outcomes from legal proceedings could lead to significant fines, restrictions on operations, and reduced profitability.
  • Cybersecurity and Data Breaches: As a critical facilitator of financial transactions and a holder of vast amounts of sensitive financial and personal data, Mastercard is a prime target for cyberattacks. A significant data breach or cybersecurity incident could lead to severe reputational damage, loss of customer trust, financial penalties from regulators, costly litigation, and a substantial impact on its operational integrity.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs): Many central banks globally are actively exploring or developing Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). Should these digital currencies gain widespread adoption for retail payments, they could enable direct digital transactions between consumers and merchants, potentially bypassing traditional payment networks for authorization, clearing, and settlement and diminishing Mastercard's intermediary role.

Widespread Adoption of Real-Time Payment Networks: The increasing global adoption and expansion of instant or real-time payment networks (such as FedNow in the United States, UPI in India, and SEPA Instant Credit Transfer in Europe) present an emerging threat. These systems facilitate immediate bank-to-bank transfers, often at lower costs than traditional card networks, which could divert a significant volume of transactions away from Mastercard's proprietary rails, particularly for bill payments, peer-to-peer transfers, and business-to-business transactions.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Mastercard (symbol: MA) operates in several large addressable markets for its main products and services:

  • Payment Processing Solutions: The global payment processing solutions market size was valued at approximately USD 66.8 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to about USD 198.9 billion by 2034.
  • Credit, Debit, and Prepaid Card Payments: The global card payments market, which includes credit, debit, and prepaid cards, was valued at USD 28.6 trillion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 56.4 trillion by 2033. Specifically, the global credit card payments market size was estimated at USD 622.76 billion in 2024 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 1,433.49 billion by 2034.
  • Cyber and Intelligence Solutions: The global cybersecurity market size was valued at USD 301.91 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 878.48 billion by 2034.
  • Open Banking Platforms: The global open banking market size was estimated at USD 31.61 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 135.17 billion by 2030.
  • Digital Identity Platforms: The global digital identity solutions market size was expected to be USD 64.44 billion in 2025 and is forecast to reach USD 168.75 billion by 2031.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Mastercard (MA) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies and market trends:

  1. Growth in Core Payment Network Transactions: Mastercard anticipates continued revenue expansion from increases in both domestic and cross-border transaction volumes. This is driven by healthy consumer spending and a surge in cross-border travel, which fuels higher-margin transactions. For instance, cross-border volumes were projected to jump significantly, and switched transactions have shown consistent growth.
  2. Expansion of Value-Added Services and Solutions: A significant driver of revenue growth comes from the strong demand for Mastercard's value-added services (VAS). These include cyber and intelligence solutions, data analytics, consulting services, loyalty solutions, and digital authentication services. This segment has consistently delivered robust growth and is a key focus for diversification beyond traditional card processing.
  3. Development of New Payment Flows: Mastercard is actively expanding its reach into new payment areas beyond traditional consumer card transactions. This includes growth in account-to-account (A2A) payments and commercial payment flows, where the company leverages its network to facilitate various business and government transactions.
  4. Strategic Partnerships and Increased Market Penetration: Forming and renewing strategic partnerships with financial institutions and merchants globally helps drive card issuance, portfolio conversions, and overall transaction volume on Mastercard's network. Examples include major debit portfolio flips and continued expansion of contactless payment penetration.
  5. Innovation and Pricing for Value: Mastercard's ongoing investment in innovation, such as new digital payment technologies, tokenization, and credit intelligence solutions, enables it to deliver enhanced value to its customers. The company maintains a strategy of pricing its services based on the value delivered, contributing to revenue growth from new offerings and improvements to existing ones.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Repurchases

  • Mastercard's Board of Directors approved a new share repurchase program in December 2025, authorizing the company to repurchase up to $14 billion of its Class A common stock, effective upon completion of the prior $12 billion program.
  • As of December 5, 2025, approximately $4.2 billion remained under the previously approved share repurchase program.
  • The company's annual share buybacks amounted to $11.727 billion in 2025, $11.035 billion in 2024, and $9.032 billion in 2023.

Share Issuance

  • Mastercard's shares outstanding have consistently declined year-over-year, with a 2.27% decrease in 2025 from 2024, a 2.01% decrease in 2024 from 2023, and a 2.57% decrease in 2023 from 2022, indicating that share repurchases have generally exceeded issuances.
  • The net common equity issued/repurchased was -$11.524 billion in 2025, -$10.73 billion in 2024, and -$8.795 billion in 2023.

Outbound Investments

  • In September 2024, Mastercard agreed to acquire the cybersecurity company Recorded Future for $2.65 billion, a transaction that closed earlier than expected in Q4 2024. This acquisition aims to enhance the company's cybersecurity and fraud prevention capabilities.
  • Mastercard has made other strategic acquisitions to strengthen its value-added services, including Minna Technologies (October 2024), Baffin Bay Networks (March 2023), Dynamic Yield (December 2021), Arcus (November 2021), CipherTrace (September 2021), Aiia (September 2021), and Ekata (April 2021 for $850 million).

Capital Expenditures

  • Mastercard's capital expenditures averaged $436.6 million for the fiscal years ending December 2021 to 2025.
  • Annual capital expenditures were $489 million in 2025, $474 million in 2024, $371 million in 2023, $442 million in 2022, and $407 million in 2021.
  • These expenditures primarily focus on supporting the company's strategic initiatives, including investments in digital payments, security, and expanding its value-added services.

Better Bets vs. Mastercard (MA)

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MAVAXPPYPLFISVGPNMedian
NameMasterca.Visa American.PayPal Fiserv Global P. 
Mkt Price570.48368.54348.9957.9354.1187.48218.24
Mkt Cap503.2693.1236.650.828.923.6143.7
Rev LTM35,08344,48875,95234,12821,09010,23134,606
Op Inc LTM20,99229,189-6,2825,1589906,282
FCF LTM15,97521,01315,0526,5864,12782310,819
FCF 3Y Avg14,27920,68516,4856,1934,1621,78510,236
CFO LTM17,43722,58018,4757,4756,0131,65812,456
CFO 3Y Avg15,52122,09318,8896,9525,7752,49111,236

Growth & Margins

MAVAXPPYPLFISVGPNMedian
NameMasterca.Visa American.PayPal Fiserv Global P. 
Rev Chg LTM16.0%14.4%10.7%5.7%1.9%32.5%12.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg14.2%11.8%10.0%6.1%5.2%6.0%8.1%
Rev Chg Q14.1%14.4%10.0%4.8%-2.0%68.6%12.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.4%3.4%2.4%1.2%-0.5%15.2%2.9%
Op Inc Chg LTM19.0%12.9%-2.0%-15.1%-40.4%2.0%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg15.6%11.0%-9.8%11.3%-13.0%11.0%
Op Mgn LTM59.8%65.6%-18.4%24.5%9.7%24.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg58.9%66.4%-18.3%26.7%17.9%26.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.4%-1.4%--0.5%-2.4%-2.5%-1.4%
CFO/Rev LTM49.7%50.8%24.3%21.9%28.5%16.2%26.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg50.6%56.3%27.7%21.4%28.2%31.7%30.0%
FCF/Rev LTM45.5%47.2%19.8%19.3%19.6%8.0%19.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg46.6%52.8%24.3%19.1%20.3%23.1%23.7%

Valuation

MAVAXPPYPLFISVGPNMedian
NameMasterca.Visa American.PayPal Fiserv Global P. 
Mkt Cap503.2693.1236.650.828.923.6143.7
P/S14.315.63.11.51.42.32.7
P/Op Inc24.023.7-8.15.623.823.7
P/EBIT24.125.0-8.05.416.516.5
P/E31.030.720.710.49.0-25.315.5
P/CFO28.930.712.86.84.814.213.5
Total Yield3.8%4.0%5.9%10.1%11.1%-2.9%4.9%
Dividend Yield0.6%0.7%1.0%0.5%0.0%1.1%0.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.1%3.4%8.5%11.9%8.2%8.4%8.3%
D/E0.00.00.20.31.01.00.3
Net D/E0.00.00.10.01.00.80.0

Returns

MAVAXPPYPLFISVGPNMedian
NameMasterca.Visa American.PayPal Fiserv Global P. 
1M Rtn7.2%3.2%-2.0%28.5%4.5%13.0%5.8%
3M Rtn16.2%15.8%8.7%25.6%-3.6%26.1%16.0%
6M Rtn3.4%12.2%-0.7%42.1%-9.4%24.4%7.8%
12M Rtn1.4%10.1%18.9%-13.9%-59.7%13.0%5.7%
3Y Rtn48.4%57.8%118.5%-6.9%-56.6%-26.4%20.8%
1M Excs Rtn4.6%1.7%-3.1%24.0%-0.3%9.8%3.1%
3M Excs Rtn8.6%8.3%4.4%18.6%-11.9%20.0%8.4%
6M Excs Rtn-7.7%0.9%-11.2%28.2%-18.5%19.4%-3.4%
12M Excs Rtn-21.3%-13.5%-3.9%-36.1%-82.3%-9.7%-17.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-21.0%-9.7%45.7%-91.2%-125.4%-86.4%-53.7%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Payment Solutions32,79128,16725,09822,237 
Payment network    11,943
Value-added services and solutions    6,941
Total32,79128,16725,09822,23718,884


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil2025202420232022
Payment Solutions14,96812,87411,1959,930
Total14,96812,87411,1959,930


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$570.48 
Market Cap ($ Bil)503.2 
First Trading Date05/25/2006 
Distance from 52W High-4.2% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$517.96$526.53
DMA Trendindeterminateup
Distance from DMA10.1%8.3%
 3M1YR
Volatility22.9%22.2%
Downside Capture-78.6426.79
Upside Capture1.7021.84
Correlation (SPY)-8.6%19.3%
MA Betas & Captures as of 7/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.100.02-0.190.260.360.67
Up Beta-0.350.390.220.360.460.72
Down Beta0.740.260.380.760.550.78
Up Capture90%32%-13%10%17%28%
Bmk +ve Days11223567138427
Stock +ve Days13253466127416
Down Capture-87%-72%-105%2%33%79%
Bmk -ve Days11212859114326
Stock -ve Days9182960125337

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with MA
MA0.7%22.2%-0.05-
Sector ETF (XLF)13.1%14.6%0.6264.2%
Equity (SPY)23.1%12.9%1.3419.4%
Gold (GLD)25.4%28.3%0.79-9.8%
Commodities (DBC)29.5%19.8%1.19-17.1%
Real Estate (VNQ)14.4%13.7%0.7422.6%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-44.6%42.9%-1.256.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with MA
MA8.9%24.0%0.32-
Sector ETF (XLF)11.6%18.4%0.4968.2%
Equity (SPY)13.4%17.2%0.6063.1%
Gold (GLD)18.2%18.6%0.791.1%
Commodities (DBC)8.1%19.6%0.316.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)2.5%18.9%0.0349.7%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)9.9%53.0%0.3723.4%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with MA
MA20.5%26.9%0.72-
Sector ETF (XLF)13.7%22.1%0.5768.1%
Equity (SPY)15.3%17.9%0.7373.4%
Gold (GLD)12.0%16.2%0.602.5%
Commodities (DBC)7.1%18.0%0.3120.6%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.9%20.7%0.2056.5%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)58.2%66.2%0.9817.7%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date7152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity9.1 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 630202616.9%
Average Daily Volume3.2 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.8 days
Basic Shares Quantity882.0 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares1.0%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 8/4/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
7/30/20262.5%  
4/30/2026-4.2%-6.3%-5.9%
1/29/20264.3%6.2%-0.8%
10/30/2025-0.2%-0.2%-1.9%
7/31/20251.3%1.8%5.6%
5/1/2025-0.3%3.3%6.8%
1/30/20253.1%3.2%5.0%
10/31/2024-2.7%1.4%3.7%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121413
# Negative12910
Median Positive2.6%2.7%6.6%
Median Negative-1.8%-3.1%-3.3%
Max Positive4.8%15.1%12.2%
Max Negative-8.1%-6.8%-8.5%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
7/30/20262.5%  
4/30/2026-4.2%-6.3%-5.9%
1/29/20264.3%6.2%-0.8%
10/30/2025-0.2%-0.2%-1.9%
7/31/20251.3%1.8%5.6%
5/1/2025-0.3%3.3%6.8%
1/30/20253.1%3.2%5.0%
10/31/2024-2.7%1.4%3.7%
7/31/20243.6%0.2%5.4%
5/1/2024-2.0%0.4%-2.0%
1/31/20240.9%3.4%6.6%
10/26/2023-5.6%-2.2%6.8%
7/27/2023-2.0%-3.1%-1.2%
4/27/20231.9%2.2%0.9%
1/26/2023-1.3%-2.2%-7.7%
10/27/2022-0.0%0.1%9.9%
7/28/20222.7%3.2%0.4%
4/28/20224.8%1.9%-3.2%
1/27/20221.7%15.1%7.1%
10/28/2021-0.8%-1.9%-3.4%
7/29/20211.4%-4.0%-8.0%
4/29/2021-1.7%-6.7%-8.5%
1/28/20212.8%5.5%12.2%
10/28/2020-8.1%-6.8%7.6%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121413
# Negative12910
Median Positive2.6%2.7%6.6%
Median Negative-1.8%-3.1%-3.3%
Max Positive4.8%15.1%12.2%
Max Negative-8.1%-6.8%-8.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202607/30/202610-Q
03/31/202604/30/202610-Q
12/31/202502/11/202610-K
09/30/202510/30/202510-Q
06/30/202507/31/202510-Q
03/31/202505/01/202510-Q
12/31/202402/12/202510-K
09/30/202410/31/202410-Q
06/30/202407/31/202410-Q
03/31/202405/01/202410-Q
12/31/202302/13/202410-K
09/30/202310/26/202310-Q
06/30/202307/27/202310-Q
03/31/202304/27/202310-Q
12/31/202202/14/202310-K
09/30/202210/27/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202607/30/202610-Q
03/31/202604/30/202610-Q
12/31/202502/11/202610-K
09/30/202510/30/202510-Q
06/30/202507/31/202510-Q
03/31/202505/01/202510-Q
12/31/202402/12/202510-K
09/30/202410/31/202410-Q
06/30/202407/31/202410-Q
03/31/202405/01/202410-Q
12/31/202302/13/202410-K
09/30/202310/26/202310-Q
06/30/202307/27/202310-Q
03/31/202304/27/202310-Q
12/31/202202/14/202310-K
09/30/202210/27/202210-Q
06/30/202207/28/202210-Q
03/31/202204/28/202210-Q
12/31/202102/11/202210-K
09/30/202110/28/202110-Q
06/30/202107/29/202110-Q
03/31/202104/29/202110-Q
12/31/202002/12/202110-K
09/30/202010/28/202010-Q
06/30/202007/30/202010-Q
03/31/202004/29/202010-Q
12/31/201902/14/202010-K
09/30/201910/29/201910-Q

Insider Activity

Updated 8/4/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Miebach, MichaelPresident & CEODirectSell8042026580.0016,6289,644,24063,257,538Form
2Miebach, MichaelPresident & CEODirectSell8042026567.6816,6289,439,38365,805,875Form
3McLaughlin, Edward GrundePresident & CTO, MA TechDirectSell7152026534.8719,80010,590,34720,720,387Form
4Arkell, Sandra AControllerDirectSell7152026540.0014477,7601,500,103Form
5Arkell, Sandra AControllerDirectSell7152026540.00200108,0001,577,863Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Miebach, MichaelPresident & CEODirectSell8042026580.0016,6289,644,24063,257,538Form
2Miebach, MichaelPresident & CEODirectSell8042026567.6816,6289,439,38365,805,875Form
3McLaughlin, Edward GrundePresident & CTO, MA TechDirectSell7152026534.8719,80010,590,34720,720,387Form
4Arkell, Sandra AControllerDirectSell7152026540.0014477,7601,500,103Form
5Arkell, Sandra AControllerDirectSell7152026540.00200108,0001,577,863Form
6Arkell, Sandra AControllerDirectSell7082026540.00200108,0001,685,863Form
7Arkell, Sandra AControllerDirectSell7082026540.00200108,0001,793,863Form
8Seshadri, RajChief Commercial Pmts OfficerDirectSell7022026529.731,9771,047,2768,703,109Form
9Seshadri, RajChief Commercial Pmts OfficerDirectSell7022026525.004,8282,534,7008,625,398Form
10McLaughlin, Edward GrundePresident & CTO, MA TechDirectSell7022026525.1914,2607,489,18720,345,481Form
11Ling, HaiPresident, AP, Europe, MEADirectSell2252026495.714,4852,223,26912,723,796Form
12Ling, HaiPresident, AP, Europe, MEADirectSell2252026502.694,4862,255,04512,902,774Form
13Sachin, J. MehraChief Financial OfficerDirectSell9032025591.0017,26310,202,45818,459,102Form
14Ling, HaiPresident, AP, Europe, MEADirectSell8252025600.004,4852,691,00015,507,424Form
15Sachin, J. MehraChief Financial OfficerDirectSell8202025586.8917,81610,456,01618,330,657Form
16Sachin, J. MehraChief Financial OfficerDirectSell8062025566.466,7583,828,16417,692,711Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Aug 6, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Valley Forge Capital Management, LP$743.2 Mil22.0%7Hold13F
Akre Capital Management LLC$1.1 Bil18.6%19TRIM -24.1%13F
Spinecap SAS$36.1 Mil13.3%15ADD +106.0%13F
OAKMONT Corp$62.3 Mil11.8%31Hold13F
Camrose Capital Investment Partners LLP$89.7 Mil11.7%10ADD +94.7%13F
MFF Capital Investments Ltd$164.9 Mil10.9%19Hold13F
Atalan Capital Partners, LP$117.2 Mil10.8%10Hold13F
Seilern Investment Management Ltd$88.9 Mil10.6%24TRIM -18.8%13F
Rothschild & Co Wealth Management UK Ltd$675.8 Mil10.3%25Hold13F
XXEC, Inc.$57.8 Mil10.1%23New13F
Metropolis Capital Ltd$290.8 Mil9.8%16ADD +23.7%13F
Torque Asset Management LLC$24.6 Mil9.7%12TRIM -12.3%13F
Park Presidio Capital LLC$135.6 Mil9.5%13ADD +31.7%13F
RIT Capital Partners PLC$34.0 Mil9.1%12Hold13F
Soroban Capital Partners LP$1.2 Bil8.8%27ADD +30.5%13F
Cryder Capital Partners LLP$122.8 Mil8.0%10ADD +8.6%13F
Styrax Capital, LP$112.4 Mil7.9%17Hold13F
BLS Capital Fondsmaeglerselskab A/S$224.2 Mil7.6%11ADD +7.5%13F
GUARDCAP ASSET MANAGEMENT Ltd$132.4 Mil7.6%27TRIM -45.4%13F
Ycg, LLC$78.2 Mil7.1%42Hold13F
Gavilan Investment Partners LLC$24.7 Mil6.6%14ADD +6.5%13F
Ithaka Group LLC$31.2 Mil6.5%38Hold13F
PineStone Asset Management Inc.$904.6 Mil6.4%44ADD +6.7%13F
Altarock Partners LP$261.2 Mil6.3%8Hold13F
L1 Capital International Pty Ltd$101.1 Mil6.0%23Hold13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
XXEC, Inc.$57.8 Mil10.1%23New13F
Two Creeks Capital Management, LP$45.3 Mil4.8%21New13F
Maestria Partners LLC$15.5 Mil5.7%13New13F
Spinecap SAS$36.1 Mil13.3%15ADD +106.0%13F
Camrose Capital Investment Partners LLP$89.7 Mil11.7%10ADD +94.7%13F
Park Presidio Capital LLC$135.6 Mil9.5%13ADD +31.7%13F
Soroban Capital Partners LP$1.2 Bil8.8%27ADD +30.5%13F
Metropolis Capital Ltd$290.8 Mil9.8%16ADD +23.7%13F
Cryder Capital Partners LLP$122.8 Mil8.0%10ADD +8.6%13F
Bowie Capital Management, LLC$106.8 Mil5.1%29ADD +8.2%13F
BLS Capital Fondsmaeglerselskab A/S$224.2 Mil7.6%11ADD +7.5%13F
PineStone Asset Management Inc.$904.6 Mil6.4%44ADD +6.7%13F
Gavilan Investment Partners LLC$24.7 Mil6.6%14ADD +6.5%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQAs OfFiling
Teewinot Capital Advisers, L.L.C.$67.7 Mil5.0%31ExitedDec 31, 202513F
GCQ FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY Ltd$51.5 Mil7.1%10ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Cypress Funds LLC$42.7 Mil7.1%14ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Hillman Co$39.6 Mil13.7%16ExitedDec 31, 202513F
America First Investment Advisors, LLC$25.4 Mil4.6%42ExitedDec 31, 202513F
J. Stern & Co. LLP$59.3 Mil5.7%49TRIM -99.8%Mar 31, 202613F
BlueSpruce Investments, LP$35.2 Mil5.6%10TRIM -83.8%Mar 31, 202613F
GUARDCAP ASSET MANAGEMENT Ltd$132.4 Mil7.6%27TRIM -45.4%Mar 31, 202613F
Akre Capital Management LLC$1.1 Bil18.6%19TRIM -24.1%Mar 31, 202613F
Seilern Investment Management Ltd$88.9 Mil10.6%24TRIM -18.8%Mar 31, 202613F
Vulcan Value Partners, LLC$191.5 Mil5.1%33TRIM -14.7%Mar 31, 202613F
Torque Asset Management LLC$24.6 Mil9.7%12TRIM -12.3%Mar 31, 202613F
Firetrail Investments PTY LTD$12.5 Mil4.3%28TRIM -9.3%Mar 31, 202613F
Bristol Gate Capital Partners Inc.$70.8 Mil4.6%31TRIM -6.9%Mar 31, 202613F
Weitz Investment Management, Inc.$73.5 Mil5.1%49TRIM -5.7%Mar 31, 202613F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Soroban Capital Partners LP$1.2 Bil8.8%27ADD +30.5%13F
Akre Capital Management LLC$1.1 Bil18.6%19TRIM -24.1%13F
PineStone Asset Management Inc.$904.6 Mil6.4%44ADD +6.7%13F
Valley Forge Capital Management, LP$743.2 Mil22.0%7Hold13F
Rothschild & Co Wealth Management UK Ltd$675.8 Mil10.3%25Hold13F
Mirova US LLC$478.5 Mil5.4%42Hold13F
Marshfield Associates$299.9 Mil6.0%17Hold13F
Metropolis Capital Ltd$290.8 Mil9.8%16ADD +23.7%13F
Altarock Partners LP$261.2 Mil6.3%8Hold13F
BLS Capital Fondsmaeglerselskab A/S$224.2 Mil7.6%11ADD +7.5%13F
Vulcan Value Partners, LLC$191.5 Mil5.1%33TRIM -14.7%13F
MFF Capital Investments Ltd$164.9 Mil10.9%19Hold13F
Park Presidio Capital LLC$135.6 Mil9.5%13ADD +31.7%13F
GUARDCAP ASSET MANAGEMENT Ltd$132.4 Mil7.6%27TRIM -45.4%13F
Cryder Capital Partners LLP$122.8 Mil8.0%10ADD +8.6%13F
Atalan Capital Partners, LP$117.2 Mil10.8%10Hold13F
Styrax Capital, LP$112.4 Mil7.9%17Hold13F
Bowie Capital Management, LLC$106.8 Mil5.1%29ADD +8.2%13F
L1 Capital International Pty Ltd$101.1 Mil6.0%23Hold13F
Camrose Capital Investment Partners LLP$89.7 Mil11.7%10ADD +94.7%13F
Seilern Investment Management Ltd$88.9 Mil10.6%24TRIM -18.8%13F
Ycg, LLC$78.2 Mil7.1%42Hold13F
Weitz Investment Management, Inc.$73.5 Mil5.1%49TRIM -5.7%13F
Bristol Gate Capital Partners Inc.$70.8 Mil4.6%31TRIM -6.9%13F
OAKMONT Corp$62.3 Mil11.8%31Hold13F

MA Trade Sentinel


Stock Conviction

Constructive

CONVICTION RATIONALE

Mastercard's core thesis is intact, driven by a rapidly growing, high-margin services business that reinforces its powerful network. Value-added services revenue grew 22% in the last quarter. While a slowdown in cross-border travel creates a near-term headwind, the company's pricing power is strong and management has outlined a path to reacceleration in the second half of 2026.

STOCK ARCHETYPE
Transactional Toll Road

(Gross Dollar Volume x Assessment Rate) + (Number of Switched Transactions x Fee per Transaction) + Value-Added Services Revenue Growth in high-margin cross-border transactions and the expansion of the differentiated, fast-growing Value-Added Services business.

Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the Trefis High Quality Portfolio.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Can the high-growth services business create a superior compounding machine?

Evidence suggests yes. The fast-growing, data-driven services arm enhances the core network, driving share gains and expanding margins.

Mechanism: Value-added services revenue grew 22% in Q1, outpacing the network's 12% growth. This mix shift, combined with pricing power that added 5-6 percentage points to revenue growth over volume, expands the company's 59.5% operating margin. Recent wins include the American Airlines and Amazon small business co-brand cards.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Value-added services revenue grew 22% in Q1 2026.
  • Trailing-twelve-month operating margin expanded to 59.5% from 58% a year ago.
  • Pricing drove a 5 point spread between cross-border revenue and volume growth.
  • Trailing-twelve-month revenue growth of 16.8% outpaced its primary peer.
  • Secured the U.S. Amazon small business co-brand card portfolio.
PRIMARY RISK
Decelerating High-Margin Travel Volume

A slowdown in lucrative cross-border transactions, which fell to 13% growth in Q1, could signal the end of post-pandemic travel recovery, pressuring revenue growth and margins. Management has guided for a further slowdown in Q2 before a potential recovery.

Mechanism: A failure to show re-accelerating cross-border volume in Q3 guidance would confirm the slowdown is structural, not temporary.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Cross-border volume growth decelerated to 13% in Q1 from 15% two quarters prior.
  • Management guided Q2 revenue growth to the 'low end of low double digits'.
  • Geopolitical tensions are cited as a direct pressure on cross-border travel.
  • Accounts receivable grew 19% in the latest quarter, outpacing revenue growth.
Key KPI Watchlist
KPI Status Rationale
Cross-Border Volume Growth13% year-over-year growth in Q1 2026 - DeceleratingThe year-over-year growth in Cross-Border Volume has decelerated for three consecutive quarters. Management attributed the most recent slowdown to the conflict in the Middle East, which began to impact cross-border travel in March, as well as portfolio shifts. Despite this, the company characterized overall cross-border volume as remaining healthy.
Switched Transactions Growth9% year-over-year growth in Q1 2026 - DeceleratingReported Switched Transactions growth slowed slightly in the latest quarter. However, management stated that excluding the impacts from the migration of a major debit portfolio, growth would have been 10%. This indicates the underlying trend is stable, with the reported deceleration caused by a specific, known portfolio loss.
Gross Dollar Volume (GDV) Growth (Local Currency)7% (Q1 2026)Measures the total dollar volume of activity (purchases and cash) on Mastercard-branded cards, indicating the overall health of consumer and business spending flowing through the network.
Core Investment Debate

Services Growth vs. Cross-Border Slowdown

BULL VIEW

The 22% growth in value-added services is a durable, structural driver that more than offsets temporary, geopolitically-driven softness in cross-border travel. This powerful combination is fueling market share gains and margin expansion.

CORE TENSION

Can 22% services growth offset the cross-border slowdown to 13%, which prompted a cautious Q2 guide and a -6.0% stock reaction last quarter?


PREVAILING SENTIMENT
CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

The bull view is favored. Management's strong execution record and reiterated full-year guidance suggest the cross-border issue is a manageable, temporary headwind, not a break in the model.

BEAR VIEW

The slowdown in high-margin cross-border volume to 13% growth is the primary signal. It indicates a maturing recovery and exposes the business to macro shocks, which the services business cannot fully insulate from.

Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
Timeline Event & Metric To Watch
July 30, 2026
Cross-Border Revenue Miss
Watch: Q2 results and Q3 guidance for any revision to the cross-border recovery timeline.
July 30, 2026
Sustained Gross Margin Pressure
Watch: Q2 gross margin result and management commentary on cost of revenue and mix.
July 30, 2026
Q2 2026 Earnings Report
Watch: Company to release second quarter 2026 financial results and hold conference call.
8/6/2026
Intensifying Peer Competition
Watch: Peer Fiserv's results, particularly commentary on competitive dynamics and new contract wins in processing.
10/23/2026
Peer American Express Earnings
Watch: Peer American Express (AXP) is scheduled to report earnings.
11/2/2026
Peer Global Payments Earnings
Watch: Peer Global Payments (GPN) is scheduled to report earnings.
November 2026
Senior Notes Principal Maturity
Watch: Earliest debt maturity of $750 million of principal is scheduled to occur.
Key Events in Last 6 Months
Date Event Stock Impact
2026-07-23
Expanded into Creator Economy
Details: On July 23, 2026, creator-focused banking platform Manifest Finance launched a debit card in partnership with Mastercard, targeting creators operating as full-scale businesses.
+1.4%
$531.98 -> $539.66
2026-06-10
Launched Agent Pay for Machines
Details: On June 10, 2026, the company launched a new payment class for AI agents to transact with each other at machine speed, including microtransactions.
-1.8%
$494.41 -> $485.70
2026-05-27
Received NYDFS BitLicense
Details: On May 27, 2026, Mastercard Transaction Services (U.S.) LLC was granted a BitLicense, reflecting engagement with regulators for its evolving payments systems.
+0.2%
$492.18 -> $492.92
2026-04-30
Q1 2026 Earnings and Outlook
Details: Reported Q1 net revenue growth of 16% and diluted EPS growth of 21%. However, the stock reacted negatively (-6.0%) as management discussed impacts from Middle East conflict on cross-border travel.
-5.7%
$524.35 -> $494.63
2026-03-16
Crypto Partner Program Expands
Details: In March 2026, the company announced that both TRON and Modern Treasury joined its Crypto Partner Program, connecting traditional financial infrastructure with digital asset payments.
+1.7%
$496.30 -> $504.86
2026-02-18
Enhanced Digital Money Movement Partnership
Details: On February 18, 2026, the company and Ericsson announced a collaboration to simplify access to advanced money movement solutions for telecom providers, fintechs, and banks.
-0.3%
$520.16 -> $518.50
2026-01-29
Q4 2025 Earnings Beat
Details: The company reported fourth-quarter adjusted profit that topped expectations, with adjusted EPS of $4.76. The two-day stock reaction was positive at 3.0%.
+3.3%
$519.60 -> $536.97
Risk Management
Position Sizing

5% - 7%

NORMAL POSITION

Sizing is volatility-based: MA trades at roughly 25% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 15% for the S&P 500 (1.7x the market), around the 77th percentile of its own trailing year. A 5% - 7% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.

Diversification Alternatives
V - Visa
Incumbent Market Leader

Visa offers superior scale, with revenue 1.3 times that of Mastercard, and a higher operating margin of 67.1% versus Mastercard's 59.5%, indicating greater profitability.

Core Thesis: An investment in the largest global payments network, which benefits from the same secular shift to digital payments with a more profitable business model.
AXP - American Express
Premium Consumer Focus

American Express has a unique, closed-loop network and a strategic focus on the premium consumer segment, offering a different exposure concentrated on affluent spending.

Core Thesis: A play on high-end consumer spending through a company with a powerful brand and a business model focused on premium travel and lifestyle benefits.
How Is The Market Pricing MA?

A high-margin global toll road for digital payments that is successfully layering a fast-growing, data-driven services business on top of its network infrastructure.

Mastercard operates a virtuous cycle: its vast payment network generates proprietary data, which powers a differentiated and rapidly growing suite of value-added services (VAS) in security and data analytics. These services, in turn, help win and retain core network deals. This model allows the company to capture the secular shift to digital payments while also expanding into higher-growth, adjacent markets, creating a resilient and compounding growth engine.

What will confirm the thesis

Continued double-digit growth in the Value-Added Services segment, major co-brand wins citing services as a differentiator, and successful monetization of new payment flows like B2B, agentic commerce, and stablecoins.

What will damage the thesis

A sustained downturn in cross-border travel, significant market share loss to a competitor like Visa on a major portfolio, or impactful government regulation that mandates network routing or caps fees.

Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis

Minor quarterly fluctuations in Gross Dollar Volume (GDV) due to holiday timing or short-term macro shifts, as the long-term secular trend remains the key driver.

Repricing Catalyst

Continued execution and strong growth in the high-margin Value-Added Services business, and demonstrating a clear leadership role and monetization path in emerging areas like agentic commerce and stablecoins.

What MA Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on the twelve months through fiscal Q1 2026
MA Evolution: Price Return by Era
Pre-2021 · Core Network Dominance
+3%
The business was primarily defined by its global payment network, generating revenue from transaction volumes and cross-border activity. While services existed, the core network was the overwhelming focus of the business model.
2021-2025 · Rise of Value-Added Services
+67%
A strategic shift to significantly grow, diversify, and build out the Value-Added Services & Solutions business. Revenue from this category grew from 2,818 to 3,450, a much faster rate than the core payment network, establishing it as a major, distinct growth engine for the company.
Market Appears To Be Cautiously Supportive
Price structure is mildly positive. The trend shows early signs of health but hasn't fully committed. Relative to SPY: Decisively outperforming and improving. Potential evidence of active institutional rotation. Volume and momentum are strongly confirming. The institutional accumulation is evident and momentum is accelerating. Earnings history is neutral. The market reaction and subsequent drift do not give a clear directional signal.
① Structure
+1
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
+3
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
0
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
4 / 12
1 Price Structure & Trend Potential Bottoming · -
2 Momentum Accelerating
3 Relative Strength vs. SPY Strong Outperformance
4 Institutional Footprint & Volume Mild Accumulation
5 Volatility Normal
6 Key Price Levels Range · Vol Rising
7 Earnings Reaction History Inconsistent
8 How the Verdict Is Derived Three Pillars
Core Cache Last Updated: 8/5/2026