Dynex Capital (DX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $13.91 | Market Cap: $1.9 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Mortgage REITs
Dynex Capital (DX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $13.91Market Cap: $1.9 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Mortgage REITs
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.9%, FCF Yield is 7.3% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.9%, Dist 3Y High is -0.9% | |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -29% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -8.7% | |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 87% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 53%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 53% | ||
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -34% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 19% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Capital Markets & Investment. Themes include Fixed Income Investing, Real Estate Debt Markets, and Interest Rate Risk Management. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.9%, FCF Yield is 7.3% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -29% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 87% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 53%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 53% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -34% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 19% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Capital Markets & Investment. Themes include Fixed Income Investing, Real Estate Debt Markets, and Interest Rate Risk Management. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.9%, Dist 3Y High is -0.9% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -8.7% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
DX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining Dynex Capital (DX)'s stock movement for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Dynex Capital reported mixed but ultimately positive Third Quarter 2025 earnings on October 20, 2025. While the company missed revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates, its book value per common share increased to $12.67 from $11.95 in the prior quarter, and it achieved a total economic return of $1.23 per common share, representing 10.3% of beginning book value.
2. The market reacted with "modest approval" and "positive momentum" following the Q3 2025 earnings announcement. Dynex Capital's shares showed positive movement in pre-market trading, and the company's one-month performance as of October 20, 2025, was reported at +9.05%, indicating strong investor confidence despite the earnings miss.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DX Return | 17% | 2% | -15% | 12% | 14% | 28% | 65% |
| Peers Return | -28% | 9% | -20% | 0% | 3% | -4% | -37% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DX Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 50% | 50% | 67% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 57% | 48% | 43% | 55% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DX Max Drawdown | -48% | -4% | -29% | -16% | -6% | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -71% | -7% | -36% | -24% | -12% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TWO, IVR, RC, LOAN, NLY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -52.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 112.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -57.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 136.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 402 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 160 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -40.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 619 days | 1480 days |
Compare to TWO, IVR, RC, LOAN, NLY
In The Past
Dynex Capital's stock fell -52.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/9/2021. A -52.9% loss requires a 112.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to DX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Dynex Capital
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 9.20 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.8 |
| Rev LTM | 151 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 140 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 133 |
| CFO LTM | 140 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 223 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 41.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 33.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 85.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 51.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 119.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 434.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 92.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 434.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.8 |
| P/S | 7.5 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 9.0 |
| P/CFO | 3.9 |
| Total Yield | 10.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 6.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 9.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 4.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -0.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -3.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -4.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -65.1% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10272025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7282025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10282024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7262024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4262024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2262024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11062023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7282023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4282023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10312022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8012022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5022022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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