Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.9%, FCF Yield is 7.3%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
 
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -29%
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -6.6%
 
2 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 87%
  
3 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 53%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 53%
  
4 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -34%
  
5 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 19%
  
6 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Capital Markets & Investment. Themes include Fixed Income Investing, Real Estate Debt Markets, and Interest Rate Risk Management.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.9%, FCF Yield is 7.3%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -29%
2 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 87%
3 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 53%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 53%
4 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -34%
5 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 19%
6 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Capital Markets & Investment. Themes include Fixed Income Investing, Real Estate Debt Markets, and Interest Rate Risk Management.
7 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
8 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -6.6%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

DX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The stock of Dynex Capital (DX) experienced notable movements between August 31, 2025, and December 8, 2025, driven by several key factors.

1. Positive Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Report and Market Reaction. Dynex Capital announced its Q3 2025 financial results on October 20, 2025, which, despite missing EPS estimates, were met with modest market approval due to solid operational performance and a positive outlook. Key highlights included a rise in book value to $12.67 per common share from $11.95 in the previous quarter, and a total economic return of $1.23 per common share. The market reaction saw the stock showing positive momentum in pre-market trading, with a 9.05% gain over one month, suggesting growing investor confidence.

2. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cut and Favorable Market Conditions. Management attributed the company's Q3 2025 success to favorable market conditions, specifically citing declining Treasury rates and tightening mortgage spreads. A significant factor was the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut in September 2025, which management anticipated would lead to continued improvement in financing rates during Q4 2025. This outlook for lower interest rates is generally positive for mortgage REITs like Dynex Capital.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
DX Return17%2%-15%12%14%28%65%
Peers Return-28%9%-20%0%3%-3%-37%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
DX Win Rate67%58%50%50%67%60% 
Peers Win Rate52%57%48%43%55%54% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
DX Max Drawdown-48%-4%-29%-16%-6%-8% 
Peers Max Drawdown-71%-7%-36%-24%-12%-22% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TWO, IVR, RC, LOAN, NLY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/5/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventDXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-52.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven112.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-57.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven136.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven402 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-24.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven31.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven160 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-40.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven67.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven619 days1480 days

Compare to TWO, IVR, RC, LOAN, NLY


In The Past

Dynex Capital's stock fell -52.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/9/2021. A -52.9% loss requires a 112.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Dynex Capital (DX)

Better Bets than Dynex Capital (DX)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to DX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.4%7.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
12.2%12.2%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.8%-0.8%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.4%0.4%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.8%-7.8%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.4%7.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
12.2%12.2%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.8%-0.8%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.4%0.4%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.8%-7.8%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Dynex Capital

Peers to compare with:

Financials

DXTWOIVRRCLOANNLYMedian
NameDynex Ca.Two Harb.Invesco .Ready Ca.Manhatta.Annaly C. 
Mkt Price14.0310.228.402.624.6922.879.31
Mkt Cap1.91.10.60.40.115.00.8
Rev LTM230395722271,703151
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM122-17815947251,953140
FCF 3Y Avg716419632951,260133
CFO LTM122-4915947252,857140
CFO 3Y Avg7125119632951,976223

Growth & Margins

DXTWOIVRRCLOANNLYMedian
NameDynex Ca.Two Harb.Invesco .Ready Ca.Manhatta.Annaly C. 
Rev Chg LTM87.1%254.9%-29.9%-73.3%-3.5%473.5%41.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg63.4%-11.5%241.0%-52.8%2.5%143.3%33.0%
Rev Chg Q309.0%144.1%27.8%-29.1%-9.2%637.1%85.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM113.8%329.7%21.1%-45.4%-2.2%81.6%51.4%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM52.8%-12.5%220.1%2,181.7%71.0%167.8%119.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg77.6%-790.7%851.6%70.9%-434.2%
FCF/Rev LTM52.8%-45.2%220.1%2,181.7%71.0%114.7%92.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg77.6%-790.7%851.6%70.8%-434.2%

Valuation

DXTWOIVRRCLOANNLYMedian
NameDynex Ca.Two Harb.Invesco .Ready Ca.Manhatta.Annaly C. 
Mkt Cap1.91.10.60.40.115.00.8
P/S7.32.67.129.38.87.87.5
P/EBIT-------
P/E9.0-5.49.6-2.011.98.99.0
P/CFO13.7-20.93.21.312.44.63.9
Total Yield11.1%-0.7%10.4%-27.7%16.8%11.3%10.7%
Dividend Yield0.0%17.7%0.0%21.4%8.4%0.0%4.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg6.8%3.2%40.1%36.2%8.5%11.4%9.9%
D/E0.01.30.06.00.22.20.8
Net D/E-0.30.5-0.15.70.22.20.4

Returns

DXTWOIVRRCLOANNLYMedian
NameDynex Ca.Two Harb.Invesco .Ready Ca.Manhatta.Annaly C. 
1M Rtn4.3%5.6%8.1%-10.9%-4.7%4.4%4.4%
3M Rtn13.0%2.1%10.1%-37.0%-11.0%7.1%4.6%
6M Rtn25.1%2.9%21.2%-35.5%-2.9%28.8%12.0%
12M Rtn29.8%-0.5%18.7%-59.9%-6.8%32.7%9.1%
3Y Rtn61.7%-3.0%10.7%-69.7%11.5%60.6%11.1%
1M Excs Rtn4.6%4.6%7.7%-14.9%-5.0%4.3%4.4%
3M Excs Rtn7.1%-2.9%5.6%-44.1%-16.1%1.0%-0.9%
6M Excs Rtn10.6%-11.6%6.7%-50.0%-17.4%14.3%-2.5%
12M Excs Rtn18.2%-13.3%8.6%-72.6%-20.4%19.8%-2.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-6.6%-72.9%-60.1%-139.2%-64.0%-8.8%-62.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Investing in Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and funding these investments with repurchase27177128200-137
Total27177128200-137


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity8,503,538
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120255.6%
Average Daily Volume4,542,328
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.87
Basic Shares Quantity135,952,339
Short % of Basic Shares6.3%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/20/20250.4%1.4%3.5%
7/21/20250.1%3.1%0.9%
4/21/2025-1.8%6.3%8.6%
1/27/20251.2%5.1%11.1%
10/21/2024-0.6%-0.7%-0.1%
7/22/20241.0%0.1%1.5%
4/22/2024-1.0%2.9%8.3%
1/29/20241.2%-2.8%-2.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive161615
# Negative9910
Median Positive1.5%4.0%6.6%
Median Negative-3.2%-2.4%-2.6%
Max Positive9.6%14.6%12.2%
Max Negative-5.6%-8.9%-10.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251027202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025728202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025430202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241028202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024726202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024426202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023226202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231106202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023728202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023428202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221031202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022801202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022502202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Popenoe Smriti LaxmanCo-CEO and President9292025Buy12.164,20051,0574,951,034Form
1COLLIGAN ROBERT SCFO and COO9292025Buy12.124,20050,9041,464,787Form