Blue Owl Technology Finance (OTF)
Market Price (10/9/2026): $9.395 | Market Cap: $4.3 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Blue Owl Technology Finance (OTF)
Market Price (10/9/2026): $9.395Market Cap: $4.3 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 23%, Dividend Yield is 15%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 20% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Private Credit, and Online Banking & Lending. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -69%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -114% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 163% Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 9.7x Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -20%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -21% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -357%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -357% Key risksOTF key risks include [1] its concentration in high-risk, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 23%, Dividend Yield is 15%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 20% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Private Credit, and Online Banking & Lending. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -69%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -114% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 163% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 9.7x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -20%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -21% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -357%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -357% |
| Key risksOTF key risks include [1] its concentration in high-risk, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Blue Owl Technology Finance (OTF) stock has lost about 5% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Concerns over Dividend Coverage and Increased Leverage. Blue Owl Technology Finance's adjusted net investment income of $0.30 per share in fiscal Q2 2026 fell short of its $0.35 base dividend, with management guiding that full coverage from net investment income is not expected until mid-2027. This concern was further intensified by new debt financings, including a $150 million private placement of notes in September 2026, bringing total debt raised since June 30, 2026, to $800 million. Concurrently, the company's net debt-to-equity increased to 0.93x in fiscal Q2 2026 from 0.85x in fiscal Q1 2026, and investments on non-accrual at cost rose from 0.3% to 0.6% over the same period.
2. Macroeconomic Headwinds from Surging Interest Rates. Long-term interest rates surged to decades-long highs during fiscal Q3 2026, driven primarily by Federal Reserve rate hikes and massive debt borrowing to fund AI data centers, broadly pressuring rate-sensitive business development companies (BDCs) and the financial sector. The 10-year Treasury yield, specifically, rose above 5.3%, contributing to a risk-off sentiment in the market.
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Blue Owl Technology Finance (OTF) stock has lost about 5% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Concerns over Dividend Coverage and Increased Leverage. Blue Owl Technology Finance's adjusted net investment income of $0.30 per share in fiscal Q2 2026 fell short of its $0.35 base dividend, with management guiding that full coverage from net investment income is not expected until mid-2027. This concern was further intensified by new debt financings, including a $150 million private placement of notes in September 2026, bringing total debt raised since June 30, 2026, to $800 million. Concurrently, the company's net debt-to-equity increased to 0.93x in fiscal Q2 2026 from 0.85x in fiscal Q1 2026, and investments on non-accrual at cost rose from 0.3% to 0.6% over the same period.
2. Macroeconomic Headwinds from Surging Interest Rates. Long-term interest rates surged to decades-long highs during fiscal Q3 2026, driven primarily by Federal Reserve rate hikes and massive debt borrowing to fund AI data centers, broadly pressuring rate-sensitive business development companies (BDCs) and the financial sector. The 10-year Treasury yield, specifically, rose above 5.3%, contributing to a risk-off sentiment in the market.
3. Impact of Ex-Dividend Date. The company's stock experienced typical downward pressure after its quarterly dividend of $0.35 per share went ex-dividend on September 30, 2026.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -7.0% change in OTF stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -9.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.95 | 9.25 | -7.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 484 | 438 | -9.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 87.3% | 85.7% | -1.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.9 | 11.4 | 3.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 464 | 461 | 0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -7.0% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OTF | -7.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.1% | 31.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | 0.3% | 19.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -19.3% change in OTF stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -43.8% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 10072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 11.47 | 9.25 | -19.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 779 | 438 | -43.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 92.4% | 85.7% | -7.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 7.4 | 11.4 | 52.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 468 | 461 | 1.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -19.3% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OTF | -19.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.8% | 27.6% |
| Sector (XLF) | 9.3% | 24.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -23.2% change in OTF stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -19.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 10072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 12.05 | 9.25 | -23.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 544 | 438 | -19.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.2 | 11.4 | 1.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 465 | 461 | 0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -23.2% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OTF | -23.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.6% | 29.8% |
| Sector (XLF) | 1.0% | 32.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OTF | ||
| Market (SPY) | 88.1% | 28.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | 69.2% | 30.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OTF Return | - | - | - | - | -5% | -28% | -32% |
| Peers Return | 28% | -14% | 37% | 12% | -0% | -1% | 68% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OTF Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 29% | 20% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 68% | 45% | 68% | 65% | 55% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OTF Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -29% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -10% | -33% | -17% | -15% | -23% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: HTGC, TRIN, HRZN, ARCC, OBDC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/7/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
OTF has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.
| Event | XLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -15.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 80 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -10.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 26 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -16.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.1% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 270 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -22.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 467 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -42.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 289 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -19.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 123 days | 105 days |
In The Past
State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -15.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
OTF has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.
| Event | XLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -22.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 467 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -42.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 289 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -21.4% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.3% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 272 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.3% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 162 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -78.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 359.8% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2329 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -15.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Blue Owl Technology Finance (OTF)
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Direct Lending: Blue Owl Technology Finance provides debt capital directly to private technology companies.
- Senior Secured Loans: The company primarily offers senior secured loans, which are debt instruments typically collateralized by the borrower's assets and hold a priority position in their capital structure.
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Blue Owl Technology Finance (OTF) operates as a Business Development Company (BDC) specializing in direct lending to technology companies. As such, its "customers" are the companies to which it provides debt financing and, occasionally, equity investments.
The company primarily sells its financial services (capital) to other companies. However, due to its diversified lending strategy, it does not typically have one or a few "major customers" that account for a significant portion of its revenue in the way a vendor might. Instead, it maintains a broad portfolio of borrowers.
Blue Owl Technology Finance serves the following categories of customer companies:
- Middle-Market Technology Companies: These are typically private, U.S.-based software, internet, and technology-enabled businesses that are seeking capital for growth initiatives, acquisitions, recapitalizations, or other strategic purposes.
- Growth-Stage Technology Companies: Companies that have demonstrated strong growth potential and are looking for flexible financing solutions to scale their operations without necessarily pursuing traditional equity financing exclusively.
- Sponsor-Backed Technology Companies: Many of its portfolio companies are backed by private equity sponsors, which often provides an additional layer of diligence and support.
Given the nature of a diversified lender, specific individual customer companies are not disclosed as "major customers" in the traditional sense, and symbols are not applicable as most are private entities.
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Craig Packer, Chief Executive Officer
Mr. Packer is a Co-President of Blue Owl Capital Inc. and Head of the Credit platform, also serving as a Co-Chief Investment Officer for each of the Blue Owl Credit Advisers. He previously co-founded Owl Rock Capital Partners, the predecessor firm to Blue Owl's Credit platform. Prior to co-founding Owl Rock, Mr. Packer was a Partner and Co-Head of Leveraged Finance in the Americas at Goldman Sachs & Co. He joined Goldman Sachs & Co. in 2006 as a Managing Director and Head of High Yield Capital Markets and was named Partner in 2008. Before his time at Goldman Sachs & Co., he was the Global Head of High Yield Capital Markets at Credit Suisse First Boston, and earlier worked at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette.
Jonathan Lamm, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer
Mr. Lamm is Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer of each of the Blue Owl BDCs and a Senior Managing Director of Blue Owl. Prior to joining Owl Rock, the predecessor firm to Blue Owl's Credit platform, in April 2021, he served as the Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer of Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. (“GSBD”) from April 2013 through March 2021. In this role, he was responsible for building and overseeing GSBD's finance, treasury, accounting, and operations functions, including during its initial public offering in March 2015. He also held senior finance roles across GSAM Credit Alternatives and Goldman Sachs from 1999–2021.
Erik Bissonnette, President
Mr. Bissonnette is a Senior Managing Director at Blue Owl and a member of the Direct Lending Investment Team. He is also President of OTF and OTIC, Co-Head of Technology Investment, and a member of the Investment Committee for Blue Owl Technology Credit Advisors. In his role, he oversees strategies with over $16 billion in AUM, focused on making debt and equity investments in established enterprise software and technology companies. Before joining Blue Owl, Mr. Bissonnette was a Managing Director and Head of Technology Leveraged Finance at Capital Source from 2009 to 2017.
Alexis Maged, Chief Credit Officer
Mr. Maged is Chief Credit Officer of Blue Owl's Credit platform and a member of the Investment Committee, as well as Vice President of each of the Blue Owl BDCs and a Senior Managing Director of Blue Owl. Prior to joining Owl Rock, the predecessor firm to Blue Owl's Credit platform, he was Chief Financial Officer of Barkbox, Inc. from 2014 to 2015. Before that, Mr. Maged was a Managing Director with Goldman Sachs & Co. from 2007 until 2014.
Neena Reddy, Chief Legal Officer & Secretary
Ms. Reddy is Vice President and Secretary of each of the Blue Owl BDCs and Chief Legal Officer of each of the Blue Owl Credit Advisers. She also serves as the General Counsel, Chief Legal Officer, and Secretary of Blue Owl, and as a member of Blue Owl's Operating Committees. Prior to joining Owl Rock, the predecessor firm to Blue Owl's Credit platform, Ms. Reddy was associate general counsel at Goldman, Sachs & Co LLC from June 2010 to April 2019, where she was dedicated to Goldman Sachs Asset Management L.P. (GSAM) and responsible for GSAM-managed direct alternative products, including private credit.
```AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Blue Owl Technology Finance (OTF) primarily stem from its specialized investment focus and the inherent nature of its business as a Business Development Company (BDC).
- Concentrated Exposure to the Technology Sector and Potential for Loan Defaults: Blue Owl Technology Finance strategically focuses on originating and making debt and equity investments primarily in U.S. technology-related companies, with a significant emphasis on enterprise software. While this specialization offers potential benefits, it also creates a concentrated sector risk. A significant downturn in the technology sector, the emergence of disruptive technologies, intense competition, shifts in technology trends, or a wave of defaults among software-as-a-service (SaaS) companies could materially impact the quality of OTF's investment portfolio and its net asset value (NAV).
- Relatively Illiquid Investments: As a BDC, OTF primarily invests in loans and equity of private companies, meaning its investments are generally illiquid. This illiquidity can make it challenging to sell assets quickly or at desirable prices if the need for liquidity arises, potentially limiting its flexibility in managing its portfolio.
- Uncertain Economic Environment and High Interest Rates: General macroeconomic factors, including an uncertain economic environment, high base interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical risks, pose a significant risk. These conditions can increase the likelihood of non-accruals (defaults) among OTF's portfolio companies, negatively impacting the company's earnings performance and overall asset quality.
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Blue Owl Technology Finance (OTF) operates as a specialty finance and business development company (BDC) primarily focused on providing debt and equity investments to U.S. technology-related companies, with a strategic emphasis on software, within the upper middle-market.
The addressable market for Blue Owl Technology Finance's main products and services can be primarily understood within the broader U.S. private credit and direct lending markets, given their investment strategy. The U.S. private credit market has seen substantial growth, with estimates placing its size between approximately $1.3 trillion and $2.1 trillion.
Direct lending is identified as the dominant strategy within the private credit market. This market is driven by strong demand for customized financing, particularly for middle-market companies and capital-intensive sectors such as technology. The technology sector is a leading area within private credit, attracting lenders due to strong demand, recurring revenue, and long-term growth trends.
More specifically, the software industry, which is a key focus for Blue Owl Technology Finance, accounts for approximately 20% of outstanding loans for private direct lenders. Applying this percentage to the U.S. private credit market provides an estimated addressable market for direct lending to software companies ranging from approximately $260 billion to $420 billion in the U.S. (based on 20% of the $1.3 trillion to $2.1 trillion U.S. private credit market). This market focuses on U.S. middle-market companies.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Blue Owl Technology Finance (OTF) over the next 2-3 years:
- Increased Deployment of Capital and Loan Origination: Blue Owl Technology Finance, as a business development company (BDC), generates revenue primarily through interest income from its debt investments. The company's ability to continue deploying capital into new loans and investments is a key driver. OTF recently deployed $2.3 billion in new commitments in Q4 2025, with a backlog of approximately $900 million expected to fund in the next quarter, indicating a robust pipeline for future investment activity. This increased investment activity is expected to translate into improving returns and higher Net Investment Income (NII) per share over time.
- Strategic Focus and Growth in the Technology and Software Sector: OTF specializes in originating and making debt and equity investments in U.S. technology-related companies, with a significant emphasis on enterprise software. This focused strategy allows OTF to capitalize on the growth dynamics of the tech sector. The company's software borrowers have consistently demonstrated low to mid-teens revenue and EBITDA growth, which is among the strongest in its direct lending strategy and supports continued demand for its financing solutions. Approximately 70% of OTF's portfolio is in software, with a focus on mission-critical "systems of record" having high switching costs.
- Enhanced Scale and Diversification from Strategic Mergers: The merger with Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. II (OTF II) significantly increased the company's scale and investment capacity. This merger created one of the largest BDCs and the largest dedicated software-focused BDC by total assets, with a combined portfolio exceeding $11.5 billion at fair value as of December 31, 2024 (pro-forma for the merger). This expanded scale allows OTF to undertake larger commitments and potentially access a broader range of investment opportunities, which is expected to be accretive to net investment income.
- Leverage Optimization Towards Target Range: Blue Owl Technology Finance has a target leverage range of 0.9x to 1.25x. As of Q4 2025, the company's net leverage was 0.75x, below its target. Management's plan to increase leverage towards this target range is expected to support higher net investment income per share, as increased debt can be used to fund more income-generating investments.
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Share Repurchases
- Blue Owl Technology Finance repurchased approximately $64.6 million of its common stock during the fourth quarter of 2025.
- In February 2026, the company's board approved a new share repurchase program authorizing up to $300 million of common stock buybacks, replacing a prior $200 million authorization.
- During November through early December 2025, over $15 million in common stock was acquired through open market purchases by executives and employees of Blue Owl Capital Inc. or under Blue Owl Technology Finance's existing share repurchase program.
Share Issuance
- In March 2025, Blue Owl Technology Finance completed its merger with Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. II, where OTF II shareholders received 0.9113 shares of OTF common stock for each OTF II share, significantly increasing OTF's outstanding shares, with former OTF II shareholders holding approximately 54% of the combined entity.
Outbound Investments
- For the year ended December 31, 2025, Blue Owl Technology Finance made new investment commitments totaling $5.6 billion, with $4.3 billion in principal amount funded, across 58 new and 58 existing portfolio companies.
- For the year ended December 31, 2024, new investment commitments amounted to $2.7 billion across 54 new and 34 existing portfolio companies.
- As of December 31, 2025, the company's investment portfolio had an aggregate fair value of $14.3 billion across 199 portfolio companies, primarily focusing on debt and equity investments in U.S. upper middle-market technology companies.
Peer Outperformance in Asset Management & Custody Banks
null| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reinsurance | 6 | 12.0% | 63.7% | 110.0% | SPNT 162% · RGA 133% · RNR 127% |
| Investment Banking & Brokerage | 13 | -5.0% | 101.1% | 91.5% | IBKR 403% · SNEX 199% · HOOD 162% |
| Diversified Banks | 12 | 26.4% | 123.8% | 89.8% | CM 133% · RY 122% · JPM 119% |
| Life & Health Insurance | 20 | 8.1% | 47.8% | 83.5% | JXN 496% · UNM 283% · MFC 167% |
| Multi-Sector Holdings | 4 | 4.0% | 52.0% | 71.3% | JONE 361% · BRK-B 78% · VOYA 64% |
| Property & Casualty Insurance | 42 | 4.0% | 72.0% | 57.1% | ASIC 2546900% · HRTG 393% · UVE 307% |
| Multi-line Insurance | 9 | 5.0% | 68.4% | 48.8% | GNW 134% · L 87% · AIZ 79% |
| Regional Banks | 263 | 23.9% | 87.0% | 46.3% | GCBC 332% · ESQ 289% · PBAM 247% |
| Financial Exchanges & Data | 15 | -0.5% | 17.0% | 27.2% | VIRT 174% · CBOE 138% · CME 65% |
| Consumer Finance | 30 | 0.1% | 85.7% | 18.1% | ENVA 411% · EZPW 269% · FCFS 158% |
| Diversified Financial Services | 4 | -5.8% | 21.2% | 15.5% | FRHC 173% · EQH 91% · TMS -60% |
| Asset Management & Custody Banks ← | 82 | -10.8% | 17.2% | 9.1% | WT 352% · SII 262% · VCTR 255% |
| Insurance Brokers | 16 | -25.6% | -8.3% | 8.4% | LIFE 294% · ARX 88% · CRD-A 62% |
| Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance | 13 | -55.3% | 15.3% | -5.1% | FNMA 434% · FMCC 411% · ACT 175% |
| Specialized Finance | 3 | 8.0% | 36.6% | -13.4% | EFC 16% · CACC -13% · HASI -14% |
| Mortgage REITs | 33 | -15.7% | -1.7% | -35.2% | NREF 45% · RITM 28% · DX 16% |
| Transaction & Payment Processing Services | 17 | -3.7% | -5.7% | -41.2% | V 68% · MA 65% · CPAY 53% |
| Diversified Capital Markets | 20 | -45.6% | 12.4% | -60.1% | OPY 162% · LPLA 99% · GOLD 41% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Can Blue Owl Technology Finance Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 13.36 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.7 |
| Rev LTM | 406 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | -293 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -223 |
| CFO LTM | -292 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -223 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -6.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | -32.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -11.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | - |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | - |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -28.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -44.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -28.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -44.9% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $9.25 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 4.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/12/2025 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -29.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $10.38 | $12.22 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | -10.9% | -24.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 30.5% | 33.8% |
| Downside Capture | 108.30 | 101.51 |
| Upside Capture | 57.98 | 51.06 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 32.6% | 30.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.95 | 1.30 | 0.98 | 0.77 | 0.80 | 0.02 |
| Up Beta | 2.15 | 2.42 | 1.17 | 0.68 | 0.79 | -0.14 |
| Down Beta | 0.43 | 1.43 | 1.11 | 0.50 | 0.86 | -0.24 |
| Up Capture | 37% | 96% | 82% | 49% | 48% | 4% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 18 | 27 | 55 | 114 | 149 |
| Down Capture | 196% | 91% | 102% | 129% | 99% | 61% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 24 | 36 | 66 | 132 | 166 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with OTF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTF | -25.1% | 33.7% | -0.82 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 1.3% | 14.8% | -0.13 | 32.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.8% | 13.0% | 0.92 | 30.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 3.2% | 29.5% | 0.11 | 0.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 44.6% | 20.9% | 1.66 | -13.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.6% | 13.7% | -0.13 | 18.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -31.7% | 44.2% | -0.73 | 23.2% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with OTF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTF | -7.6% | 31.4% | -0.93 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 8.9% | 18.3% | 0.35 | 30.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.8% | 17.1% | 0.62 | 28.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.4% | 18.9% | 0.79 | -1.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.3% | 19.6% | 0.40 | -13.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.8% | 18.8% | -0.07 | 19.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 15.5% | 52.2% | 0.46 | 20.6% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with OTF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTF | -3.9% | 31.4% | -0.93 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 12.9% | 22.1% | 0.53 | 30.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 28.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.5% | 16.4% | 0.57 | -1.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 18.1% | 0.38 | -13.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.2% | 20.7% | 0.16 | 19.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 64.0% | 66.2% | 1.04 | 20.6% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/8/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/5/2026 | 8.7% | 10.5% | 9.7% |
| 5/6/2026 | -6.0% | -7.2% | -3.8% |
| 2/18/2026 | -2.5% | -9.0% | 0.2% |
| 11/5/2025 | -2.9% | -4.6% | 0.9% |
| 8/6/2025 | -0.7% | -1.4% | -1.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| # Negative | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| Median Positive | 8.7% | 10.5% | 0.9% |
| Median Negative | -2.7% | -5.9% | -2.7% |
| Max Positive | 8.7% | 10.5% | 9.7% |
| Max Negative | -6.0% | -9.0% | -3.8% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/5/2026 | 8.7% | 10.5% | 9.7% |
| 5/6/2026 | -6.0% | -7.2% | -3.8% |
| 2/18/2026 | -2.5% | -9.0% | 0.2% |
| 11/5/2025 | -2.9% | -4.6% | 0.9% |
| 8/6/2025 | -0.7% | -1.4% | -1.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| # Negative | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| Median Positive | 8.7% | 10.5% | 0.9% |
| Median Negative | -2.7% | -5.9% | -2.7% |
| Max Positive | 8.7% | 10.5% | 9.7% |
| Max Negative | -6.0% | -9.0% | -3.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/06/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/06/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/13/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/11/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/12/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/08/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/06/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/06/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/13/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/11/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/12/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/08/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/11/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/11/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/10/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/12/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/11/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/05/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/12/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/11/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/12/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/26/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/06/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/4/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Base Dividend | Reported | 0.35 | 0.0% | Same New | Guidance: 0.35 for Q2 2026 | |||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Dividends | Reported | 0.35 | 0 | Same New | Actual: 0.35 for Q1 2026 | |||
| 2026 Share Repurchases | Reported | 250.00 Mil | ||||||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/18/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Regular Dividend | Reported | 0.35 | 0 | Same New | Guidance: 0.35 for Q4 2025 | |||
| Q1 2026 Special Dividend | Reported | 0.05 | 0 | Same New | Guidance: 0.05 for Q4 2025 | |||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/5/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Regular Dividend | Reported | 0.35 | 0 | Same New | Actual: 0.35 for Q3 2025 | |||
| Q4 2025 Special Dividend | Reported | 0.05 | 0 | Same New | Actual: 0.05 for Q3 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 8/31/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaye, Eric A | Direct | Buy | 8312026 | 11.37 | 1,000 | 11,370 | 34,110 | Form | |
| 2 | Temple, Chris | Direct | Buy | 5272026 | 10.71 | 7,000 | 74,970 | 128,520 | Form | |
| 3 | Weiler, Melissa | Direct | Buy | 5142026 | 10.90 | 10,000 | 109,000 | 109,000 | Form | |
| 4 | Kaye, Eric A | Direct | Buy | 5122026 | 10.74 | 1,000 | 10,740 | 21,480 | Form | |
| 5 | Kaye, Eric A | Direct | Buy | 4272026 | 11.44 | 1,000 | 11,441 | 11,441 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaye, Eric A | Direct | Buy | 8312026 | 11.37 | 1,000 | 11,370 | 34,110 | Form | |
| 2 | Temple, Chris | Direct | Buy | 5272026 | 10.71 | 7,000 | 74,970 | 128,520 | Form | |
| 3 | Weiler, Melissa | Direct | Buy | 5142026 | 10.90 | 10,000 | 109,000 | 109,000 | Form | |
| 4 | Kaye, Eric A | Direct | Buy | 5122026 | 10.74 | 1,000 | 10,740 | 21,480 | Form | |
| 5 | Kaye, Eric A | Direct | Buy | 4272026 | 11.44 | 1,000 | 11,441 | 11,441 | Form | |
| 6 | Temple, Chris | Direct | Buy | 2252026 | 11.49 | 5,000 | 57,450 | 57,450 | Form | |
| 7 | Bissonnette, Erik | President | Direct | Buy | 1302026 | 14.70 | 10,000 | 147,000 | 2,447,918 | Form |
| 8 | Bissonnette, Erik | President | Direct | Buy | 11202025 | 13.27 | 12,500 | 165,824 | 2,076,445 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Oct 9, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cliffwater LLC | $73.2 Mil | 19.4% | 20 | Hold | 13F |
| Regents of the University of California | $540.5 Mil | 18.0% | 12 | New | 13F |
| Capricorn Investment Group LLC | $69.8 Mil | 11.6% | 7 | Hold | 13F |
| GCM Grosvenor Holdings, LLC | $17.5 Mil | 1.9% | 22 | ADD +228.2% | 13F |
| Pine Ridge Advisers LLC | $12.7 Mil | 0.9% | 39 | ADD +100.0% | 13F |
| Active Manager |
|---|
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regents of the University of California | $540.5 Mil | 18.0% | 12 | New | 13F |
| Cliffwater LLC | $73.2 Mil | 19.4% | 20 | Hold | 13F |
| Capricorn Investment Group LLC | $69.8 Mil | 11.6% | 7 | Hold | 13F |
| GCM Grosvenor Holdings, LLC | $17.5 Mil | 1.9% | 22 | ADD +228.2% | 13F |
| Pine Ridge Advisers LLC | $12.7 Mil | 0.9% | 39 | ADD +100.0% | 13F |
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
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| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
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