Blue Owl Technology Finance (OTF)
Market Price (12/25/2025): $14.45 | Market Cap: $6.7 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Blue Owl Technology Finance (OTF)
Market Price (12/25/2025): $14.45Market Cap: $6.7 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 4.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.7%, FCF Yield is 6.9% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 69% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 90% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 9.9x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 68%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 68% | Key risksOTF key risks include [1] its concentration in high-risk, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Private Credit, and Online Banking & Lending. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 4.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.7%, FCF Yield is 6.9% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 90% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 68%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 68% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Private Credit, and Online Banking & Lending. |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 69% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 9.9x |
| Key risksOTF key risks include [1] its concentration in high-risk, Show more. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
For the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 25, 2025, Blue Owl Technology Finance (OTF) experienced downward pressure on its stock, with a notable decline of 3.07% following its Q3 2025 earnings report.1. Q3 2025 Earnings Report and Subsequent Stock Decline
On November 5, 2025, Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF) announced its financial results for the third quarter of 2025. Despite reporting an adjusted net investment income of $0.32 per share, which met analyst expectations, the stock's performance immediately following this announcement saw a decline of 3.07%.
2. Investor Sentiment Despite Meeting Earnings Expectations
While the company's Q3 2025 earnings met expectations and reported an increase in Net Asset Value per share to $17.27, along with maintaining a 9.3% dividend yield, the negative market reaction suggests that investors may have been looking for stronger performance indicators or perceived other aspects of the report as less favorable. The mere act of meeting expectations might not have been sufficient to stimulate positive growth or prevent selling pressure from investors.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 1.9% change in OTF stock from 9/24/2025 to 12/24/2025 was primarily driven by a 22.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| 9242025 | 12242025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.85 | 14.11 | 1.89% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 544.15 | 665.69 | 22.33% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 91.86% | 92.42% | 0.61% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.89 | 10.70 | -16.94% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 465.12 | 466.72 | -0.34% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 1.89% |
Market Drivers
9/24/2025 to 12/24/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OTF | 1.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.4% | 37.0% |
| Sector (XLF) | 4.0% | 40.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -3.6% change in OTF stock from 6/25/2025 to 12/24/2025 was primarily driven by a -98.3% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| 6252025 | 12242025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 14.64 | 14.11 | -3.63% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 344.94 | 665.69 | 92.99% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 88.85% | 92.42% | 4.02% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.24 | 10.70 | -4.80% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 235.35 | 466.72 | -98.31% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -96.77% |
Market Drivers
6/25/2025 to 12/24/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OTF | -3.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.0% | 25.8% |
| Sector (XLF) | 8.8% | 27.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
12/24/2024 to 12/24/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OTF | ||
| Market (SPY) | 15.8% | 27.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | 14.9% | 30.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
12/25/2023 to 12/24/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OTF | ||
| Market (SPY) | 48.9% | 27.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | 53.2% | 30.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OTF Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | -14% | 37% | 12% | -2% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 18% | 115% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OTF Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 70% | 45% | 68% | 65% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OTF Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -26% | -4% | -7% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HTGC, TRIN, HRZN, ARCC, OBDC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/24/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
OTF has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.
| Event | XLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 525 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -43.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 295 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -83.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 515.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4,470 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Blue Owl Technology Finance (OTF):
- JPMorgan for private tech company loans.
- Blackstone or KKR for private tech debt.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Senior Secured Loans: Provides direct loans to private companies, primarily taking senior secured positions in the capital structure.
- Unitranche Debt: Offers blended debt facilities that combine senior and junior debt into a single loan, simplifying the capital structure for borrowers.
- Equity & Preferred Equity Investments: Makes minority equity investments or invests in preferred shares, typically alongside debt financing provided to portfolio companies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlBlue Owl Technology Finance (OTF) is a Business Development Company (BDC) that primarily sells to other companies by providing debt and equity financing. Its core business involves making first-lien senior secured term loans to private, high-growth technology and software companies, predominantly in North America.
Due to the nature of a BDC's diversified investment strategy, its 'major customers' (i.e., portfolio companies receiving financing) consist of a broad range of private, middle-market technology and software firms. The company's investment portfolio is designed to be diversified across numerous such private entities, rather than concentrated in a few 'major' ones.
While OTF's portfolio is highly diversified, some of its largest current debt investments, representing its 'major customers' by capital deployed as of December 31, 2023, include:
- ServiceTitan, Inc.
- SmartRecruiters, Inc.
- Appfire Technologies, LLC
- Gainsight, Inc.
- Everlaw, Inc.
Please note that all of the listed companies are private and therefore do not have public stock symbols. OTF primarily targets private companies for its lending activities.
```AI Analysis | Feedback
- Deloitte & Touche LLP
- State Street Corporation (STT)
- Kirkland & Ellis LLP
AI Analysis | Feedback
Craig Packer, Chief Executive Officer
Craig Packer is the Chief Executive Officer of all Blue Owl Business Development Companies (BDCs), including Blue Owl Technology Finance, and a Co-President of Blue Owl Capital Inc.. He also serves as Head of the Credit platform and Co-Chief Investment Officer for Blue Owl Credit Advisers. Packer co-founded Owl Rock Capital Partners, the predecessor firm to Blue Owl's Credit platform. Before co-founding Owl Rock, he was a Partner and Co-Head of Leveraged Finance in the Americas at Goldman Sachs & Co.. He previously held the position of Global Head of High Yield Capital Markets at Credit Suisse First Boston and worked at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette.
Jonathan Lamm, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer
Jonathan Lamm is the Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer of each of the Blue Owl BDCs, including Blue Owl Technology Finance, and a Senior Managing Director of Blue Owl. Prior to joining Owl Rock, the predecessor firm to Blue Owl's Credit platform, in April 2021, Mr. Lamm served as the Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer of Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. ("GSBD"). He was responsible for establishing and overseeing GSBD's finance, treasury, accounting, and operations functions from April 2013 through March 2021, a period that included its initial public offering in March 2015.
Michael Rees, Co-President
Michael Rees is a Co-President of Blue Owl Capital Inc. and Head of the GP Strategic Capital platform. He co-founded Dyal Capital, which merged with Owl Rock Capital to form Blue Owl in 2021. Dyal Capital, now Blue Owl GP Strategic Capital, is known for acquiring minority stakes in over 60 other private equity firms. Before founding Dyal Capital, Rees was a founding employee and shareholder of Neuberger Berman Group, transitioning from Lehman Brothers as part of a management buyout in May 2009. He served as the first Chief Operating Officer of Neuberger's alternatives business and held various roles at Lehman Brothers from 2001 to 2009, including Head of Asset Management Strategy.
Alexis Maged, Chief Credit Officer
Alexis Maged is the Chief Credit Officer of Blue Owl's Credit platform, a member of the Investment Committee, and Vice President of each of the Blue Owl BDCs. He is also a Senior Managing Director of Blue Owl. Before joining Owl Rock, the predecessor firm to Blue Owl's Credit platform, Maged was Chief Financial Officer of Barkbox, Inc. from 2014 to 2015. Prior to that, he was a Managing Director with Goldman Sachs & Co. from 2007 to 2014, where he held leadership positions including Chief Operating Officer of the investment bank's Global Credit Finance businesses. Maged's career also includes roles at Credit Suisse as Head of the Bridge Finance Group and at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette. He was also a founding member of the Loan Syndication Group at Swiss Bank Corporation.
Erik Bissonnette, President
Erik Bissonnette is the President of Blue Owl Technology Finance (OTF) and another BDC (OTIC), Co-Head of Technology Investment, and a member of the Investment Committee for Blue Owl Technology Credit Advisors. In his role, he oversees strategies exceeding $16 billion in assets under management, focusing on debt and equity investments in established enterprise software and technology companies. Before joining Blue Owl, Bissonnette served as a Managing Director and Head of Technology Leveraged Finance at Capital Source from 2009 to 2017.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Blue Owl Technology Finance (OTF) primarily revolve around its investment strategy, regulatory status, and potential conflicts of interest inherent in its advisory structure.
- Concentration in Payment-in-Kind (PIK) and Recurring Revenue Loans to Unprofitable Businesses: Blue Owl Technology Finance exhibits a notable concentration in Payment-in-Kind (PIK) income and investments in recurring revenue loans, particularly to businesses that are EBITDA-negative. This strategy, while potentially offering outsized yields, introduces higher risk due to the less reliable nature of PIK income compared to cash interest and the inherent risks associated with lending to unprofitable companies. This concentration has been cited as a factor contributing to the stock's "depressed territory."
- Risk to Regulated Investment Company (RIC) Status: A significant risk for the business is the potential inability to qualify for and maintain its tax treatment as a Regulated Investment Company (RIC) under Subchapter M of the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. If Blue Owl Technology Finance fails to meet the requirements for RIC status, it would become subject to U.S. federal income tax at corporate rates, which could materially and adversely affect its net income and distributions to shareholders.
- Conflicts of Interest with Adviser and Affiliates: Blue Owl Technology Finance faces potential conflicts of interest arising from its relationship with its investment adviser and affiliated entities. The company may compete for capital and investment opportunities with other funds and entities managed by its adviser or its affiliates. Furthermore, the adviser and its affiliates may have incentives to favor their other accounts and clients over Blue Owl Technology Finance, potentially leading to decisions that are not solely in the best interest of OTF and its shareholders.
AI Analysis | Feedback
null
AI Analysis | Feedback
Blue Owl Technology Finance (OTF) operates as a Business Development Company (BDC) primarily focused on originating and providing loans and making debt and equity investments in technology-related companies, with a particular emphasis on enterprise software, predominantly within the United States.
The addressable market for Blue Owl Technology Finance's main products and services, which are direct lending and debt/equity investments to technology companies, can be estimated by looking at the broader U.S. private credit and direct lending markets.
The U.S. private credit market was estimated to be between $1.1 trillion (as of November 2025) and $1.25 trillion (as of June 2024). Direct lending constitutes a significant portion of this market, ranging from approximately 36% (as of March 2024) to 50% (in 2025) of the total private credit assets under management. This suggests the U.S. direct lending market is roughly in the range of $400 billion to $625 billion.
Within the direct lending sector, the technology and healthcare industries collectively accounted for 38% of all direct loans in 2025. Based on this, the addressable market for direct lending specifically to U.S. technology companies is estimated to be approximately $150 billion to $238 billion. This market size is for the U.S. region.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Blue Owl Technology Finance (OTF) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
- Strategic Focus on Technology Direct Lending: Blue Owl Technology Finance maintains a strategic focus on upper middle-market software direct lending and making debt and equity investments in U.S. technology-related companies, particularly within the software sector. This approach is considered a core driver, with CEO Craig Packer emphasizing software as an asset class that transcends sectors and serves all end markets.
- Continued Portfolio Growth and Deal Flow: The company has demonstrated confidence in its ability to grow its portfolio and generate deal flow. Total portfolio investments reached $12.7 billion in Q2 2025 and $13 billion in Q3 2025, supported by new investment commitments totaling $1.0 billion in Q3 2025 across both new and existing portfolio companies.
- Expansion through Strategic Mergers and Diversification: Strategic mergers, such as the integration of Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. II (OTF II), are anticipated to drive expansion. These mergers aim to increase market share, diversify investment portfolios, and enhance operational capabilities, positioning OTF as a top-five Business Development Company (BDC) by total assets.
- Investments in AI and Data Center Infrastructure: Blue Owl Technology Finance is actively exploring new investment opportunities in emerging areas like artificial intelligence (AI) and data center infrastructure. President Eric Bissonnette has highlighted AI as a "profound paradigm shift," indicating its potential to contribute significantly to future growth.
- Focus on Recession-Resilient End Markets: The company's ongoing strategy includes optimizing its portfolio mix and concentrating on recession-resilient end markets and mission-critical software solutions. This focus is intended to strategically position the company for sustained future growth.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Blue Owl Technology Finance (OTF) announced a $200 million share repurchase program, effective for 18 months following its listing on the NYSE around June 12, 2025.
- The program allows for purchases at management's discretion through open-market transactions.
Share Issuance
- In March 2025, Blue Owl Technology Finance completed a merger with Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. II (OTF II), where OTF II shareholders received 0.9113 shares of OTF common stock for each OTF II share, along with cash for fractional shares.
- Following the merger, legacy OTF shareholders held approximately 46% of the combined company, while former OTF II shareholders held about 54%.
Inbound Investments
- The merger with Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. II in March 2025 significantly increased OTF's total assets to over $12 billion on a pro forma combined basis as of December 31, 2024.
Outbound Investments
- Blue Owl Technology Finance is a business development company focused on making debt and equity investments in U.S. technology-related companies, particularly in software.
- The aggregate fair value of investments in portfolio companies grew from $3.8 billion across 90 companies as of December 31, 2023, to $12.9 billion across 185 companies as of September 30, 2025.
- The portfolio primarily consists of senior secured debt investments, representing 80% of total investments as of September 30, 2025.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Can Blue Owl Technology Finance Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to OTF. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.8% | 13.8% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.5% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.4% | -4.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 7.6% | 7.6% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -11.2% | -11.2% | -12.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Blue Owl Technology Finance
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 14.62 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.9 |
| Rev LTM | 535 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | -146 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -81 |
| CFO LTM | -146 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -81 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 35.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 36.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 9.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -98.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -40.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -98.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -41.1% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5122025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3062025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3062024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11132023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8112023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5122023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3082023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8112022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3112022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.