Hercules Capital (HTGC)
Market Price (4/23/2026): $15.82 | Market Cap: $2.9 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Hercules Capital (HTGC)
Market Price (4/23/2026): $15.82Market Cap: $2.9 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 23%, Dividend Yield is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 19% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Credit. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -35%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -3.6% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 78% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -97%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -97% Key risksHTGC key risks include [1] credit deterioration within its concentrated and volatile tech and life sciences portfolio, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 23%, Dividend Yield is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 19% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Credit. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -35%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -3.6% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 78% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -97%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -97% |
| Key risksHTGC key risks include [1] credit deterioration within its concentrated and volatile tech and life sciences portfolio, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Broad BDC Sector Downturn Driven by Macroeconomic Concerns. The overall Business Development Company (BDC) market experienced a significant downturn in Q1 2026, with a 40% year-over-year slump in capital formation and retail sales, marking the sharpest contraction in the sector's history. This decline was primarily influenced by increasing private credit default rates, which climbed to a record 9.2% by the end of 2025 for privately monitored ratings, spooking investors and leading to a flight of capital from the sector. Additionally, anticipated interest rate cuts in 2026 created concern among investors regarding potentially lower earnings from floating-rate loans, a common structure within BDC portfolios. The Federal Reserve paused further easing after 75 basis points of cumulative rate cuts in late 2025, maintaining the federal funds rate in a 3.50%-3.75% range, with expectations for at least one or two more cuts in 2026, contributing to market uncertainty.
2. Impact of AI Disruption and High Software Loan Exposure. The BDC sector, including Hercules Capital, faced heightened volatility in early 2026 due to concerns over AI-driven software disruption and a subsequent software sell-off. Hercules Capital is particularly vulnerable to this trend, as a high 35% of its portfolio is exposed to software loans. This significant concentration likely amplified the negative impact on the stock as investors reacted to the sector-wide worries.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -13.3% change in HTGC stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -19.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 18.24 | 15.81 | -13.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 405 | 439 | 8.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 76.7% | 77.5% | 1.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.6 | 8.5 | -19.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 180 | 183 | -1.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -13.3% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HTGC | -13.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 39.3% |
| Sector (XLF) | -4.7% | 48.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -11.4% change in HTGC stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -30.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 17.85 | 15.81 | -11.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 350 | 439 | 25.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 74.1% | 77.5% | 4.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.2 | 8.5 | -30.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 177 | 183 | -3.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -11.4% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HTGC | -11.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 38.6% |
| Sector (XLF) | -2.7% | 49.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -8.2% change in HTGC stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -21.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 17.23 | 15.81 | -8.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 354 | 439 | 24.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 74.3% | 77.5% | 4.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.8 | 8.5 | -21.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 165 | 183 | -9.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -8.2% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HTGC | -8.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 57.2% |
| Sector (XLF) | 5.9% | 60.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 70.0% change in HTGC stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 137.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.30 | 15.81 | 70.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 185 | 439 | 137.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 55.3% | 77.5% | 40.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.9 | 8.5 | -28.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 131 | 183 | -28.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 70.0% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HTGC | 70.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 51.4% |
| Sector (XLF) | 69.6% | 56.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HTGC Return | 26% | -10% | 43% | 33% | 4% | -14% | 93% |
| Peers Return | 30% | -8% | 32% | 17% | -3% | -8% | 64% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 3% | 88% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HTGC Win Rate | 75% | 50% | 75% | 83% | 67% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 75% | 47% | 68% | 72% | 50% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HTGC Max Drawdown | -1% | -24% | -10% | 0% | -17% | -24% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -2% | -18% | -2% | -2% | -15% | -17% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ARCC, OBDC, FSK, GBDC, TSLX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/22/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HTGC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -39.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 65.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 573 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -58.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 140.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 327 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -22.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 64 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -75.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 311.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,611 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to ARCC, OBDC, FSK, GBDC, TSLX
In The Past
Hercules Capital's stock fell -39.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -39.5% loss requires a 65.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Hercules Capital (HTGC)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Hercules Capital (HTGC):
The Silicon Valley Bank for venture debt to tech and life sciences companies.
A venture capital firm that primarily offers loans instead of taking large equity stakes.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Venture Debt with Warrants: Structured debt financing, often with an equity component through warrants, provided to privately held venture capital-backed companies.
- Senior Secured Loans: Loans secured by a borrower's assets, offering a lower risk profile.
- Growth Capital Financing: Funding solutions for corporate expansion, acquisitions, recapitalizations, management buy-outs, and other strategic initiatives.
- Asset-Based Financing: Loans specifically collateralized by a company's assets, such as accounts receivable, equipment, or inventory, including revolving lines of credit.
- Bridge Financing: Short-term loans designed to provide capital to companies nearing a major liquidity event like an IPO or merger/acquisition.
- Equity Investments: Direct investments in the equity of portfolio companies, sometimes seeking a controlling interest, typically alongside debt.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Hercules Capital (HTGC) is a business development company that provides financing primarily to other companies, rather than individuals. The provided background description does not list specific names of its customer companies (portfolio companies). However, it describes the categories of companies it serves:
- Privately Held Venture Capital-Backed Companies: Hercules Capital specializes in providing venture debt, senior secured loans, and growth capital to privately held companies, ranging from startups to expansion-stage businesses. These companies are typically backed by venture capital firms and operate across technology, energy technology, sustainable and renewable technology, and life sciences sectors.
- Select Publicly Listed Companies: The firm also provides financing solutions to a select number of publicly traded companies that require additional capital for various purposes, such as asset growth, production capacity, or pre-IPO financing.
- Select Special Opportunity Lower Middle Market Companies: Hercules Capital serves established-stage companies in the lower middle market that need capital to fund acquisitions, recapitalizations, and refinancing, as well as those requiring solutions for management buy-outs, corporate spin-outs, or strategic acquisitions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Scott Bluestein, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer
Scott Bluestein was named chief executive officer and president, and appointed to the board of directors in July 2019. He was appointed chief investment officer in 2014 and continues to serve in that role. He joined Hercules in 2010 as chief credit officer. Before joining Hercules, he served as founder and partner of Century Tree Capital Management, a fund focused on senior secured debt investments with warrants and equity co-investments in small and micro-cap public and private companies. Prior to that, he was managing director at Laurus - Valens Capital Management, where he managed a structured debt with equity investment portfolio. Bluestein also worked at UBS Investment Bank as a member of the Financial Technology Coverage Group.
Seth Meyer, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Accounting Officer
Seth Meyer joined Hercules in March 2019 as the Chief Financial Officer and Chief Accounting Officer. He brings over 30 years of international business management and strategic planning experience in the financial services industry. Most recently, he served as the CFO of Swiss Re's Commercial Insurance business unit for over six years, leading a global finance team. Meyer joined Swiss Re in 2000, holding roles such as Group Tax Director and Finance Division Operating Officer before being promoted to CFO in 2011. He also worked at PricewaterhouseCoopers as a Senior Tax Manager and began his finance career as a senior tax accountant at KPMG Peat Marwick.
Christian Follmann, Chief Operating Officer
Christian Follmann was promoted to Chief Operating Officer in February 2022. He has a long tenure of over 19 years at Hercules Capital, having joined as an analyst intern in July 2006. He held various positions including associate and director of investment analysis and strategy, and Sr. Director of Operations and Strategic Projects.
Kiersten Zaza Botelho, General Counsel and Chief Compliance Officer
Kiersten Zaza Botelho was appointed General Counsel and Chief Compliance Officer in January 2022. Previously, she served as a vice president and associate general counsel in the Boston office of Bain Capital Credit, LP, where she advised private credit and structured credit groups and had specific responsibility for Bain's business development company. Prior to Bain, she was a vice president in the New York legal department of BlackRock, Inc.
Charlie Vandis, Chief Credit Officer
Charlie Vandis was promoted to Chief Credit Officer in February 2022. He joined Hercules in 2017 to lead the East Coast Credit Team and became the sole lead for Hercules Credit in 2021. Before joining Hercules, Charlie spent 16 years at GE Capital, primarily as an underwriter and portfolio manager supporting Private Equity and strategic buyouts, recapitalizations, acquisitions, and refinancings. He also spent two years in GE Capital Corporate as part of the leadership team of Global Credit Risk Review.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Hercules Capital (HTGC) are:
- Deterioration in Credit Quality and Rising Credit Losses: Hercules Capital's business is heavily reliant on the health of its venture-backed portfolio companies, particularly in the technology and life sciences sectors. An increase in loans graded as lower-credit quality, as seen in mid-2025, along with realized losses, indicates a significant risk. If the broader venture ecosystem experiences a downturn or funding slows, portfolio companies may struggle to repay loans, leading to increased defaults, write-downs, and a decline in new loan originations.
- High Leverage and Liquidity Concerns: The company's net debt/EBITDA ratio is significantly higher than the market average, and its free cash flow yield has been negative. This high leverage magnifies the potential for loss on investments and increases the risk of investing in the company's securities, making it more vulnerable if funding conditions tighten or margins are squeezed.
- Reliance on Payment-in-Kind (PIK) Income: A substantial portion of Hercules Capital's interest income comes from non-cash Payment-in-Kind (PIK) interest. While PIK income boosts reported earnings, it does not generate immediate cash, which raises questions about the sustainability of dividend payments and can signal underlying financial distress within portfolio companies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
null
AI Analysis | Feedback
Hercules Capital, Inc. operates within several large addressable markets, primarily focused on providing financing to privately held, venture capital-backed companies in the United States. The main products and services offered, including venture debt, senior secured loans, and growth capital, fall under the broader categories of private credit and direct lending.
Market Sizes:
- U.S. Private Credit Market: The U.S. private credit market is substantial, reaching approximately $1.3 trillion as of late 2024. Some estimates place the U.S. private credit market at around $1.6 trillion as of June 2023. This market is poised for continued expansion, with predictions that it could double to over $3 trillion in assets under management by 2028.
- North American Direct Lending Market: Direct lending, which includes senior secured loans, is a dominant strategy within private credit. The North American direct lending market was estimated to be around $1.5 trillion in 2024, with projections to reach nearly $2 trillion by the end of the decade. The U.S. middle-market direct lending segment specifically was estimated at $1.0 trillion as of March 2022.
- U.S. Venture Debt Market: The U.S. venture debt market has experienced significant growth. In 2024, U.S. venture debt deals reached $53.3 billion in investments. This figure continued to rise, with U.S. venture debt funding reaching $62.4 billion in deal value in 2025.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Hercules Capital (HTGC)
Over the next 2-3 years, Hercules Capital (HTGC) is expected to drive future revenue growth through several key strategies:
- Robust Originations and Net Debt Portfolio Growth: Hercules Capital anticipates a very robust new business environment, leading to continued strong originations and growth in its net debt portfolio. The company's focus on high-growth technology and life sciences companies provides a consistent pipeline for these investments.
- Expansion of Private Credit Funds and Platform Capabilities: The firm is expanding its platform capabilities, including the successful launch of its fourth private credit fund and ongoing discussions for future vehicles. This expansion allows Hercules Capital to manage a larger volume of assets and generate additional income beyond its public BDC structure.
- Increased Strategic M&A and Capital Markets Activity: Management expects an acceleration in strategic mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and capital markets activity in 2026. This environment can lead to higher early loan repayments, fee income, and realized gains from equity investments.
- Maintenance of Strong Core Yields: Hercules Capital aims to maintain its core yield within a healthy range, historically between 12% and 12.5%. Consistent high yields on its debt investment portfolio directly contribute to elevated investment income.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Hercules Capital, Inc. has an approved $50 million open market share repurchase program.
Share Issuance
- As of June 30, 2025, the company's Net Asset Value (NAV) per share increased, primarily attributed to accretion from At-The-Market (ATM) issuance.
- In June 2025, Hercules Capital closed an upsized underwritten public offering of $350.0 million in aggregate principal amount of 6.000% unsecured notes due June 2030.
- The company's 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders included authorization for the company to sell or issue shares of its common stock at a price below its then-current net asset value per share.
Outbound Investments
- For the full year 2025, Hercules Capital reported record total new debt and equity commitments of $3.92 billion and record total fundings of $2.28 billion.
- In the fourth quarter of 2025, the company delivered $1.06 billion in gross new debt and equity commitments and approximately $0.5 billion in gross new funding.
- During the first three quarters of 2025, Hercules originated over $2.87 billion in new commitments, with Q3 2025 gross fundings exceeding $504 million.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to HTGC.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03312026 | HBAN | Huntington Bancshares | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03312026 | NP | Neptune Insurance | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | JKHY | Jack Henry & Associates | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 03202026 | MKTX | MarketAxess | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.2% | -5.2% | -5.7% |
| 03202026 | RYAN | Ryan Specialty | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -2.7% | -2.7% | -8.5% |
| 03062026 | HTGC | Hercules Capital | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.6% | -0.6% | -6.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 14.54 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.3 |
| Rev LTM | 400 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 437 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 117 |
| CFO LTM | 437 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 117 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -3.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 40.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | -28.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -7.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | - |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | - |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 158.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 40.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 158.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 40.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.3 |
| P/S | 8.8 |
| P/Op Inc | - |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 10.5 |
| P/CFO | 3.9 |
| Total Yield | 21.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 10.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| D/E | 1.3 |
| Net D/E | 1.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -10.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -4.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 1.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 40.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -13.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -35.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -33.7% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $15.81 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 2.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/09/2005 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -14.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $14.91 | $16.94 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 6.0% | -6.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 34.9% | 22.8% |
| Downside Capture | 0.55 | 0.36 |
| Upside Capture | 76.71 | 57.06 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 38.7% | 36.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.13 | 1.18 | 1.01 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.79 |
| Up Beta | -2.31 | 0.60 | 0.74 | 0.51 | 0.70 | 0.65 |
| Down Beta | 0.37 | 0.35 | 0.79 | 0.62 | 0.84 | 0.93 |
| Up Capture | 240% | 96% | 60% | 64% | 47% | 59% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 16 | 26 | 61 | 127 | 409 |
| Down Capture | 108% | 183% | 151% | 119% | 98% | 94% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 25 | 36 | 63 | 121 | 326 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HTGC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HTGC | 2.8% | 22.8% | 0.05 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 15.6% | 15.1% | 0.76 | 47.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 26.7% | 12.5% | 1.77 | 39.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 38.9% | 27.4% | 1.19 | -6.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 23.5% | 16.2% | 1.32 | 5.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 15.6% | 13.6% | 0.82 | 29.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -12.8% | 42.6% | -0.21 | 29.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HTGC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HTGC | 10.2% | 25.7% | 0.37 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 10.0% | 18.7% | 0.42 | 56.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 10.5% | 17.1% | 0.48 | 52.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.5% | 17.8% | 0.99 | 3.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.7% | 18.8% | 0.47 | 19.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.6% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 44.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 3.8% | 56.4% | 0.29 | 19.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HTGC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HTGC | 13.8% | 27.8% | 0.51 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 12.9% | 22.2% | 0.53 | 54.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.8% | 17.9% | 0.66 | 52.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.9% | 15.9% | 0.73 | 3.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.1% | 17.6% | 0.38 | 25.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 50.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.1% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 14.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/12/2026 | -6.1% | -4.1% | -12.6% |
| 10/30/2025 | 1.9% | 1.1% | 7.2% |
| 7/31/2025 | 2.1% | 3.0% | 6.6% |
| 5/1/2025 | -0.9% | -1.2% | 1.3% |
| 2/13/2025 | 1.0% | 2.0% | -8.5% |
| 10/30/2024 | -0.7% | -0.6% | -2.5% |
| 8/1/2024 | -11.7% | -13.5% | -7.7% |
| 5/2/2024 | 0.7% | 2.9% | 5.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 16 | 13 |
| # Negative | 8 | 7 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.5% |
| Median Negative | -1.2% | -2.9% | -6.1% |
| Max Positive | 9.0% | 10.2% | 22.7% |
| Max Negative | -11.7% | -13.5% | -19.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/22/2022 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Closed Commitments | 894.80 Mil | 61.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 554.40 Mil for Q4 2025 | |||
| Q1 2026 Pending Commitments | 587.50 Mil | 38.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 425.50 Mil for Q4 2025 | |||
| 2026 Supplemental Cash Distribution | 0.28 | ||||||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/30/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Closed Commitments | 554.40 Mil | 1154.3% | Higher New | Actual: 44.20 Mil for Q3 2025 | |||
| Q4 2025 Pending Commitments | 425.50 Mil | -11.4% | Lower New | Actual: 480.00 Mil for Q3 2025 | |||
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.