Trinity Capital (TRIN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $14.765 | Market Cap: $973.2 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Trinity Capital (TRIN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $14.765Market Cap: $973.2 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 28%, Dividend Yield is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 24% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -18% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 111% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 55% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -197%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -197% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Credit. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 28%, Dividend Yield is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 24% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 55% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Credit. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -18% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 111% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -197%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -197% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TRIN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, Trinity Capital (TRIN) experienced a stock movement of -5.8%, primarily influenced by the following key points:
1. Trinity Capital's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Report (November 5, 2025)
Despite reporting a year-over-year increase of 22.3% in total investment income to $75.6 million and a 25.9% increase in net investment income (NII) to $37.0 million, the stock saw a decline following the release of its Q3 2025 financial results. Trinity Capital's shares dipped 4.68% in pre-market trading and 4.3% in morning trading on November 5, 2025. While the earnings per share (EPS) of $0.52 matched analyst forecasts, investor sentiment appeared cautious.
2. Sequential Dip in Net Investment Income Per Share
Although overall Net Investment Income for Q3 2025 grew year-over-year, the NII per share of $0.52 represented a slight sequential decrease from $0.53 in the second quarter of 2025. This minor sequential dip, even if anticipated, may have contributed to investor caution regarding the company's growth trajectory.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TRIN Return | - | - | -27% | 54% | 15% | 11% | 44% |
| Peers Return | 23% | 18% | -13% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 42% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TRIN Win Rate | - | 73% | 42% | 58% | 67% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 35% | 56% | 48% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TRIN Max Drawdown | - | - | -35% | -0% | -6% | -3% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -13% | -31% | -11% | -12% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTS, SLRC, DHIL, GEG, BLKS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TRIN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -49.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 96.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to VRTS, SLRC, DHIL, GEG, BLKS
In The Past
Trinity Capital's stock fell -49.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/29/2022. A -49.1% loss requires a 96.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TRIN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Trinity Capital
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 16.02 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.9 |
| Rev LTM | 152 |
| Op Inc LTM | 44 |
| FCF LTM | -9 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 16 |
| CFO LTM | -9 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 17 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -1.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | -2.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -21.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -23.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.9 |
| P/S | 3.4 |
| P/EBIT | 3.6 |
| P/E | 8.1 |
| P/CFO | -2.3 |
| Total Yield | 21.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 5.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| D/E | 1.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.9 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -14.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 0.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 31.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -18.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -14.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -8.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -43.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3062024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3022023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3032022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11042021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |