Blue Owl Capital (OBDC)
Market Price (10/21/2026): $9.93 | Market Cap: $4.9 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Blue Owl Capital (OBDC)
Market Price (10/21/2026): $9.93Market Cap: $4.9 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 21%, Dividend Yield is 15%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 17%, FCF Yield is 45% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 589%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 589%, CFO LTM is 2.2 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.2 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Equity, and Private Credit. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -48%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -73% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 156% Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 13x Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -50%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -23%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -44% Key risksOBDC key risks include [1] vulnerability from an elevated long-term debt-to-capital ratio and [2] investment valuation and markdown concerns highlighted by its terminated merger with Blue Owl Capital Corporation II. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 21%, Dividend Yield is 15%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 17%, FCF Yield is 45% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 589%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 589%, CFO LTM is 2.2 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.2 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Equity, and Private Credit. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -48%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -73% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 156% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 13x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -50%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -23%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -44% |
| Key risksOBDC key risks include [1] vulnerability from an elevated long-term debt-to-capital ratio and [2] investment valuation and markdown concerns highlighted by its terminated merger with Blue Owl Capital Corporation II. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Blue Owl Capital (OBDC) stock has lost about 5% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Dividend Reduction and Adjusted Net Investment Income. Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) announced a reduction in its base quarterly dividend from $0.37 to $0.31 per share for fiscal Q2 2026, which was subsequently declared again for fiscal Q3 2026. This 16% cut, announced around August 4, 2026, coincided with the fiscal Q2 2026 earnings release and reflected an earnings gap, as the adjusted net investment income (NII) for fiscal Q2 was approximately $0.31 per share, excluding certain non-recurring income. Such a significant dividend reduction can diminish investor confidence, particularly for a Business Development Company (BDC) where income generation and distribution are primary investor attractions.
2. Decline in Net Asset Value and Increase in Non-Accrual Loans. As of June 30, 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026), OBDC reported a 5.1% year-over-year decline in its Net Asset Value (NAV) per share, which stood at $14.26. Additionally, the company disclosed that seven portfolio companies were on non-accrual status, representing $428.7 million at cost, or 2.8% of the total portfolio, and $126.4 million at fair value, or 0.8%. These factors, released with the fiscal Q2 2026 results, signaled potential underlying weakness in the portfolio and raised concerns about asset quality and future profitability among investors.
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Blue Owl Capital (OBDC) stock has lost about 5% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Dividend Reduction and Adjusted Net Investment Income. Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) announced a reduction in its base quarterly dividend from $0.37 to $0.31 per share for fiscal Q2 2026, which was subsequently declared again for fiscal Q3 2026. This 16% cut, announced around August 4, 2026, coincided with the fiscal Q2 2026 earnings release and reflected an earnings gap, as the adjusted net investment income (NII) for fiscal Q2 was approximately $0.31 per share, excluding certain non-recurring income. Such a significant dividend reduction can diminish investor confidence, particularly for a Business Development Company (BDC) where income generation and distribution are primary investor attractions.
2. Decline in Net Asset Value and Increase in Non-Accrual Loans. As of June 30, 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026), OBDC reported a 5.1% year-over-year decline in its Net Asset Value (NAV) per share, which stood at $14.26. Additionally, the company disclosed that seven portfolio companies were on non-accrual status, representing $428.7 million at cost, or 2.8% of the total portfolio, and $126.4 million at fair value, or 0.8%. These factors, released with the fiscal Q2 2026 results, signaled potential underlying weakness in the portfolio and raised concerns about asset quality and future profitability among investors.
3. Broader Macroeconomic Headwinds from Federal Reserve Interest Rate Hikes. The Federal Reserve increased its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points in September 2026, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the first rate hike since July 2023. While OBDC's portfolio is predominantly composed of floating-rate investments (96% as of June 30, 2026), which can benefit from rising rates, the broader impact of a tightening monetary policy and higher borrowing costs across the economy can increase financial pressure on the middle-market companies to which BDCs lend. This macroeconomic shift can lead to increased default risks or slower growth among portfolio companies, contributing to investor caution and downward pressure on the stock.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -5.9% change in OBDC stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/20/2026 was primarily driven by a -15.7% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 10.54 | 9.92 | -5.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 445 | 375 | -15.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 81.1% | 77.0% | -5.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.6 | 17.0 | 16.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 499 | 495 | 0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -5.9% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OBDC | -5.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.0% | 41.7% |
| Sector (XLF) | 3.9% | 32.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -4.9% change in OBDC stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/20/2026 was primarily driven by a -47.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 10202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 10.43 | 9.92 | -4.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 710 | 375 | -47.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 88.4% | 77.0% | -12.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 8.4 | 17.0 | 102.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 507 | 495 | 2.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -4.9% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OBDC | -4.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 18.6% | 37.4% |
| Sector (XLF) | 13.3% | 29.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -12.1% change in OBDC stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/20/2026 was primarily driven by a -49.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 10202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 11.29 | 9.92 | -12.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 743 | 375 | -49.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 90.2% | 77.0% | -14.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 8.6 | 17.0 | 97.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 511 | 495 | 3.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -12.1% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OBDC | -12.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.4% | 45.3% |
| Sector (XLF) | 4.7% | 38.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 1.6% change in OBDC stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 282.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302023 | 10202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.77 | 9.92 | 1.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 928 | 375 | -59.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 92.1% | 77.0% | -16.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 4.5 | 17.0 | 282.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 390 | 495 | -21.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 1.6% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OBDC | 1.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.1% | 55.2% |
| Sector (XLF) | 75.4% | 55.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OBDC Return | 22% | -9% | 44% | 15% | -8% | -13% | 46% |
| Peers Return | 34% | -11% | 29% | 27% | -4% | -7% | 76% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 104% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OBDC Win Rate | 75% | 58% | 75% | 75% | 50% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 80% | 40% | 70% | 73% | 50% | 42% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OBDC Max Drawdown | -7% | -28% | -11% | -13% | -20% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -9% | -24% | -10% | -11% | -22% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ARCC, BXSL, MAIN, FSK, GBDC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/20/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | OBDC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 99 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -21.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -47.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 92.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 340 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Blue Owl Capital's stock fell -17.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 21.8% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | OBDC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -21.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -47.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 92.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 340 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Blue Owl Capital's stock fell -17.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 21.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Blue Owl Capital (OBDC)
Blue Owl Capital (OBDC) operates as a Business Development Company (BDC) primarily focused on providing capital solutions to middle market companies. Its core activity involves making strategic investments predominantly in various forms of debt and equity securities. This structure allows individual investors to gain exposure to private credit markets and the growth potential of privately held businesses.
OBDC's main products are a diverse range of loans and equity investments tailored to meet the specific needs of its portfolio companies. This includes senior secured or unsecured loans, subordinated loans, and mezzanine financing. Additionally, the company considers equity-related securities such as warrants and preferred stocks, and sometimes common equity investments. These investments are typically aimed at supporting growth initiatives, funding acquisitions, facilitating market or product expansion, and assisting with refinancings or recapitalizations for its client companies.
The primary customers for OBDC's capital are middle market companies based within the United States. The fund specifically targets businesses with annual EBITDA generally ranging between $10 million and $250 million, and/or annual revenues between $50 million and $2.5 billion at the time of investment. By focusing on this segment, OBDC plays a crucial role in providing financing to established, yet still growing, private companies that may have limited access to traditional public capital markets.
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It's like a JPMorgan Chase for growing, mid-sized private companies seeking loans.
It's like a debt-focused Blackstone that provides capital to middle-market private businesses.
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- Senior Secured/Unsecured Loans: Provides debt financing that holds a primary or secondary claim on a company's assets, depending on whether it is secured or unsecured.
- Subordinated and Mezzanine Loans: Offers flexible debt financing that is junior to senior debt, often including an equity component.
- Equity Investments: Makes direct capital investments in the form of preferred equity, common equity, or warrants to gain an ownership stake in companies.
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Major Customers of Blue Owl Capital (OBDC)
Blue Owl Capital (OBDC), operating as a business development company (BDC), provides financing primarily to middle-market companies through various types of loans and equity investments. In this business model, its "customers" are the companies that receive these investments and loans.
Based on its latest available public filings (as of December 31, 2023), the largest of these portfolio companies by fair value, and thus its major customers, include:
- Enact Holdings, Inc. (Symbol: EHIC)
- Acrisure LLC
- Hexion Holdings LLC
- Integra LifeSciences Holdings Corporation (Symbol: IART)
- USIC Holdings, Inc.
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- Blue Owl Capital Inc. (OWL)
- State Street Corporation (STT)
- Deloitte
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Craig Packer, Chief Executive Officer, Blue Owl Capital Corporation
Craig Packer is the Chief Executive Officer of Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) and a Co-President of Blue Owl Capital Inc.. He co-founded Owl Rock Capital Partners, which was the predecessor firm to Blue Owl's Credit platform. Prior to co-founding Owl Rock, Mr. Packer was a Partner and Co-Head of Leveraged Finance in the Americas at Goldman Sachs & Co., where he became a Managing Director and Head of High Yield Capital Markets in 2006 and a Partner in 2008. Before joining Goldman Sachs, he served as the Global Head of High Yield Capital Markets at Credit Suisse First Boston and previously worked at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette.
Jonathan Lamm, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer, Blue Owl Capital Corporation
Jonathan Lamm serves as the Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer of Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) and the other Blue Owl BDCs. He is also a Senior Managing Director at Blue Owl. Before joining Owl Rock, the predecessor to Blue Owl's Credit platform, in April 2021, Mr. Lamm was the Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer of Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. (GSBD). He was responsible for establishing and overseeing GSBD's finance, treasury, accounting, and operations functions, including its initial public offering in March 2015. Mr. Lamm spent 22 years at Goldman Sachs in various finance roles, including Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer at GSAM Credit Alternatives. He began his career in public accounting at Deloitte & Touche.
Michael Rees, Co-President, Blue Owl Capital Inc.
Michael Rees is a Co-President of Blue Owl Capital Inc. and Head of the GP Strategic Capital platform. He founded Dyal Capital, which was the predecessor firm to Blue Owl's GP Strategic Capital platform. Dyal Capital merged with Owl Rock to form Blue Owl Capital in 2021. Under his leadership, Dyal Capital focused on acquiring minority stakes in private equity firms. Prior to founding Dyal Capital, Mr. Rees was a founding employee and shareholder of Neuberger Berman Group, transitioning from Lehman Brothers as part of a management buyout, and served as the first Chief Operating Officer of Neuberger's alternatives business. He was an employee of Lehman Brothers from 2001 to 2009, holding roles such as Head of Asset Management Strategy and being responsible for strategic acquisitions for the Investment Management Division.
Doug Ostrover, Co-Chief Executive Officer, Blue Owl Capital Inc.
Doug Ostrover is a Co-Chief Executive Officer of Blue Owl Capital Inc. and the Chairman of the firm's board of directors. He co-founded Owl Rock Capital Partners, the predecessor firm to Blue Owl's Credit platform. Before co-founding Owl Rock, Mr. Ostrover was a founder of GSO Capital Partners (GSO), Blackstone's alternative credit platform, and was a Senior Managing Director at Blackstone until 2015. Prior to co-founding GSO in 2005, he was a Managing Director and Chairman of the Leveraged Finance Group at Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB). He joined CSFB in 2000 following its acquisition of Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette (DLJ), where he was a Managing Director in charge of High Yield and Distressed Sales, Trading, and Research, and had been a member of DLJ's high-yield team since 1992.
Marc Lipschultz, Co-Chief Executive Officer, Blue Owl Capital Inc.
Marc Lipschultz is a Co-Chief Executive Officer of Blue Owl Capital Inc.. He also co-founded Owl Rock Capital Partners, the predecessor firm to Blue Owl's Credit platform. Before co-founding Owl Rock, Mr. Lipschultz spent more than two decades at KKR, where he served on the firm's Management Committee and was the Global Head of Energy and Infrastructure. His experience includes leadership roles in private credit, private equity, and infrastructure, demonstrating extensive involvement in alternative investments.
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- Credit Risk and Loan Defaults: Blue Owl Capital Corporation faces significant credit risk due to its investments in loans to middle-market companies. This risk is particularly pronounced given its substantial exposure to sectors like internet software and services, which comprise a notable portion of its portfolio. Higher interest rates exert pressure on these portfolio companies, increasing the likelihood of loan defaults and bankruptcies, which can directly impact OBDC's interest income and ability to sustain dividends.
- Systemic Contagion Risk in the Private Credit Sector: The company is susceptible to broader systemic issues within the private credit market. If problems in private credit spread to other financial sectors, it could lead to reduced lending capacity and a diminished willingness of other financial institutions to provide capital to companies like OBDC. This "contagion risk" can also result in downward pressure on the market valuation of private credit assets, affecting OBDC's financial health.
- Vulnerability to Declining Interest Rates: While Blue Owl Capital Corporation's portfolio is predominantly composed of floating-rate debt investments (approximately 96% of its debt investments), which generally provides protection against rising rates, a prolonged period of declining interest rates could negatively impact its net investment income. Additionally, a recessionary environment with low interest rates could present challenges for reinvesting capital at attractive returns.
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Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) primarily operates within the U.S. private credit market, focusing on direct lending to middle-market companies.
The addressable market for Blue Owl Capital's main products and services, which include senior secured or unsecured loans, subordinated or mezzanine loans, and equity-related securities for middle-market companies, is primarily the U.S. private credit market. This market is substantial and growing:
- The U.S. private credit market is currently estimated to be approaching $1.3 trillion and some estimates place it between $1.5 trillion and $2.1 trillion. Projections indicate that this market could double to more than $3 trillion by 2028.
- More specifically, the U.S. direct lending market, a core component of private credit where Blue Owl Capital is active, stands at approximately $1 trillion in size. This market has seen significant growth, increasing from around $400 billion in 2019.
- Business Development Companies (BDCs), such as Blue Owl Capital Corporation, collectively represent $500 billion of the U.S. private credit market.
Blue Owl Capital's target clientele, U.S. middle-market companies, represents a significant segment of the U.S. economy, encompassing nearly 200,000 businesses that contribute one-third of the private sector's GDP and employ approximately 50 million people. These companies often turn to private credit providers like Blue Owl Capital due to limited financing options from traditional banks.
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Share Repurchases
- Blue Owl Capital Corporation repurchased approximately $148 million of common stock in the fourth quarter of 2025.
- In February 2026, the Board approved a new share repurchase program of up to $300 million, replacing a prior $200 million authorization.
- A $200 million stock repurchase program was approved on November 4, 2025, which was later replaced.
Share Issuance
- Blue Owl Capital's shares outstanding increased to 0.506 billion in 2025, representing a 29.75% increase from 2024.
Outbound Investments
- For the year ended December 31, 2025, new investment commitments totaled $4.3 billion across 43 new and 81 existing portfolio companies.
- For the year ended December 31, 2024, new investment commitments were $7.3 billion across 93 new and 68 existing portfolio companies.
- In February 2026, Blue Owl Capital Corporation sold $400 million of direct lending investments as part of a larger $1.4 billion asset sale across certain Blue Owl BDCs to institutional investors.
Peer Outperformance in Asset Management & Custody Banks
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reinsurance | 6 | 29.0% | 73.5% | 119.6% | SPNT 175% · RNR 149% · RGA 146% |
| Diversified Banks | 12 | 28.1% | 143.6% | 87.2% | CM 137% · JPM 122% · RY 122% |
| Life & Health Insurance | 20 | 12.4% | 61.6% | 81.1% | JXN 472% · UNM 280% · MFC 177% |
| Investment Banking & Brokerage | 13 | -12.0% | 102.4% | 68.8% | IBKR 354% · SNEX 177% · GS 145% |
| Property & Casualty Insurance | 42 | 14.2% | 80.2% | 66.6% | TRV 174% · PGR 162% · ACGL 150% |
| Multi-line Insurance | 9 | 8.3% | 66.9% | 59.7% | GNW 99% · L 95% · AIZ 87% |
| Multi-Sector Holdings | 3 | 6.4% | 55.8% | 52.3% | BRK-B 88% · VOYA 52% · JEF 31% |
| Regional Banks | 264 | 29.4% | 97.9% | 49.9% | CBC 230% · FCNCA 153% · OFG 144% |
| Financial Exchanges & Data | 15 | 8.1% | 35.0% | 30.1% | CBOE 165% · VIRT 158% · CME 70% |
| Consumer Finance | 30 | 2.5% | 86.6% | 21.1% | ENVA 397% · EZPW 320% · FCFS 154% |
| Insurance Brokers | 15 | -6.1% | 7.9% | 18.3% | LIFE 375% · ARX 88% · AJG 68% |
| Diversified Financial Services | 4 | -2.6% | 23.6% | 6.4% | FRHC 161% · EQH 81% |
| Asset Management & Custody Banks ← | 84 | -13.0% | 22.7% | 3.3% | WT 293% · AAMI 257% · VCTR 245% |
| Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance | 15 | -53.5% | 34.8% | -4.5% | FNMA 333% · FMCC 289% · ACT 154% |
| Specialized Finance | 3 | 8.8% | 36.6% | -13.5% | CACC -13% · HASI -23% |
| Mortgage REITs | 34 | -21.0% | -3.0% | -34.3% | RITM 26% · DX 17% · AGNC 7% |
| Transaction & Payment Processing Services | 17 | 2.1% | 8.2% | -35.9% | V 82% · MA 79% · CPAY 49% |
| Diversified Capital Markets | 20 | -48.9% | 12.8% | -62.8% | LPLA 89% · TW 45% · RIOT -56% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 15.30 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.0 |
| Rev LTM | 358 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 534 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 172 |
| CFO LTM | 534 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 172 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -48.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | -37.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -13.4% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | - |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | - |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 43.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 43.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.0% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $9.92 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 4.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/18/2019 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -16.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $10.70 | $10.64 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -7.3% | -6.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 20.6% | 24.0% |
| Downside Capture | 83.13 | 107.45 |
| Upside Capture | 52.88 | 78.10 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 38.5% | 46.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.69 | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.73 | 0.88 | 0.74 |
| Up Beta | 0.68 | 1.31 | 0.52 | 0.37 | 1.02 | 0.86 |
| Down Beta | 0.95 | 1.05 | 1.08 | 0.71 | 0.81 | 0.85 |
| Up Capture | 48% | 83% | 99% | 67% | 65% | 24% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 19 | 30 | 61 | 121 | 371 |
| Down Capture | 109% | 96% | 113% | 107% | 100% | 86% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 22 | 33 | 63 | 126 | 363 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with OBDC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OBDC | -11.0% | 24.0% | -0.55 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 8.1% | 14.5% | 0.31 | 36.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.8% | 12.7% | 0.93 | 45.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | -2.9% | 29.3% | -0.10 | 11.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 52.5% | 20.7% | 1.93 | -11.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 13.8% | 0.11 | 31.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -23.7% | 43.6% | -0.50 | 29.1% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with OBDC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OBDC | 4.0% | 21.1% | 0.11 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 9.5% | 18.3% | 0.38 | 56.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.6% | 17.1% | 0.61 | 56.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.1% | 18.9% | 0.77 | 8.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.7% | 19.5% | 0.38 | 14.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.4% | 18.9% | -0.03 | 48.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.7% | 51.7% | 0.33 | 26.8% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with OBDC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OBDC | 3.5% | 26.8% | 0.20 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 13.0% | 22.1% | 0.53 | 57.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 55.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.4% | 0.60 | 5.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 20.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 54.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 62.9% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 22.6% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/8/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/5/2026 | 3.1% | 6.4% | 3.9% |
| 5/6/2026 | -3.1% | -5.0% | -6.3% |
| 2/18/2026 | -1.0% | 3.1% | -1.0% |
| 11/5/2025 | -5.3% | -5.3% | 4.1% |
| 8/6/2025 | -0.2% | 1.9% | 1.8% |
| 5/7/2025 | 1.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% |
| 2/19/2025 | -0.7% | -3.1% | -3.3% |
| 11/6/2024 | -1.9% | -2.1% | 1.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 17 |
| # Negative | 11 | 10 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 1.3% | 3.0% | 3.3% |
| Median Negative | -1.6% | -3.3% | -2.8% |
| Max Positive | 3.5% | 9.5% | 14.3% |
| Max Negative | -6.6% | -9.5% | -6.8% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/5/2026 | 3.1% | 6.4% | 3.9% |
| 5/6/2026 | -3.1% | -5.0% | -6.3% |
| 2/18/2026 | -1.0% | 3.1% | -1.0% |
| 11/5/2025 | -5.3% | -5.3% | 4.1% |
| 8/6/2025 | -0.2% | 1.9% | 1.8% |
| 5/7/2025 | 1.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% |
| 2/19/2025 | -0.7% | -3.1% | -3.3% |
| 11/6/2024 | -1.9% | -2.1% | 1.7% |
| 8/7/2024 | -0.7% | -2.7% | 0.3% |
| 5/8/2024 | -0.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| 2/21/2024 | 1.3% | 0.3% | 3.3% |
| 11/8/2023 | 1.8% | 4.9% | 8.0% |
| 8/9/2023 | 0.0% | -2.8% | -2.2% |
| 5/10/2023 | 1.7% | 3.2% | 8.5% |
| 10/5/2022 | -1.6% | -3.5% | 14.3% |
| 7/6/2022 | 1.0% | 0.2% | 2.4% |
| 5/4/2022 | -6.6% | -9.5% | -6.8% |
| 2/23/2022 | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.3% |
| 11/3/2021 | 1.0% | -0.6% | -1.7% |
| 8/4/2021 | 1.2% | 1.9% | 3.4% |
| 5/5/2021 | -2.1% | -5.8% | 1.4% |
| 2/23/2021 | 0.9% | 3.0% | 0.4% |
| 11/4/2020 | 3.5% | 9.5% | 10.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 17 |
| # Negative | 11 | 10 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 1.3% | 3.0% | 3.3% |
| Median Negative | -1.6% | -3.3% | -2.8% |
| Max Positive | 3.5% | 9.5% | 14.3% |
| Max Negative | -6.6% | -9.5% | -6.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/23/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/23/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/19/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/30/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/4/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Base Dividend | Reported | 0.31 | 0.0% | Same New | Guidance: 0.31 for Q2 2026 | |||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Dividends | Reported | 0.31 | -16.2% | Lower New | Actual: 0.37 for Q1 2026 | |||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/18/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Dividends | Reported | 0.37 | 0 | Affirmed | Actual: 0.37 for Q4 2025 | |||
| 2026 Share Repurchases | Reported | 300.00 Mil | 50.0% | Raised | Actual: 200.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/5/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Dividends | Reported | 0.37 | Affirmed | Actual: 0.37 for Q3 2025 | ||||
| 2025 Share Repurchases | Reported | 200.00 Mil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 8/31/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaye, Eric A | Direct | Buy | 8312026 | 11.34 | 1,000 | 11,340 | 251,113 | Form | |
| 2 | Nicholson, Logan | President | Direct | Buy | 8212026 | 11.29 | 2,325 | 26,249 | 739,292 | Form |
| 3 | Nicholson, Logan | President | Grantor Retained Annuity Trust | Buy | 8212026 | 11.29 | 675 | 7,621 | 288,098 | Form |
| 4 | Nicholson, Logan | President | Direct | Buy | 6032026 | 11.31 | 2,600 | 29,406 | 714,306 | Form |
| 5 | Nicholson, Logan | President | Grantor Retained Annuity Trust | Buy | 6032026 | 11.31 | 400 | 4,524 | 280,974 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaye, Eric A | Direct | Buy | 8312026 | 11.34 | 1,000 | 11,340 | 251,113 | Form | |
| 2 | Nicholson, Logan | President | Direct | Buy | 8212026 | 11.29 | 2,325 | 26,249 | 739,292 | Form |
| 3 | Nicholson, Logan | President | Grantor Retained Annuity Trust | Buy | 8212026 | 11.29 | 675 | 7,621 | 288,098 | Form |
| 4 | Nicholson, Logan | President | Direct | Buy | 6032026 | 11.31 | 2,600 | 29,406 | 714,306 | Form |
| 5 | Nicholson, Logan | President | Grantor Retained Annuity Trust | Buy | 6032026 | 11.31 | 400 | 4,524 | 280,974 | Form |
| 6 | Kaye, Eric A | Direct | Buy | 5122026 | 11.21 | 1,000 | 11,210 | 237,024 | Form | |
| 7 | Kaye, Eric A | Direct | Buy | 4272026 | 11.91 | 1,000 | 11,913 | 239,984 | Form | |
| 8 | Nicholson, Logan | President | Direct | Buy | 3022026 | 11.32 | 5,525 | 62,543 | 685,505 | Form |
| 9 | Nicholson, Logan | President | Trust | Buy | 3022026 | 11.32 | 4,475 | 50,657 | 276,695 | Form |
| 10 | Reddy, Neena | Vice President and Secretary | Direct | Buy | 11282025 | 13.06 | 7,890 | 103,065 | 103,065 | Form |
| 11 | Nicholson, Logan | President | Direct | Buy | 11192025 | 11.75 | 25,000 | 293,690 | 646,494 | Form |
| 12 | Packer, Craig | Chief Executive Officer | Trust | Buy | 11192025 | 11.75 | 83,200 | 977,924 | 488,962 | Form |
| 13 | Temple, Chris | Direct | Buy | 11142025 | 12.03 | 8,000 | 96,240 | 709,770 | Form | |
| 14 | Weiler, Melissa | Direct | Buy | 11112025 | 11.99 | 10,000 | 119,900 | 596,311 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Oct 21, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
Industry Resources
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| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
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