Osisko Gold (OGG)
Market Price (8/3/2026): $2.395 | Market Cap: $289.3 MilSector: Materials | Industry: Gold
Osisko Gold (OGG)
Market Price (8/3/2026): $2.395Market Cap: $289.3 MilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Gold
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, and Global Economic Resilience. Themes include Precious Metals Royalties & Streaming, and Inflation & Volatility Hedging. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -31%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -57% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -57 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1242% Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -86%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is null Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 75% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1147%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1943% Key risksOGG key risks include [1] severe shareholder dilution stemming from its critical dependency on financing, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, and Global Economic Resilience. Themes include Precious Metals Royalties & Streaming, and Inflation & Volatility Hedging. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -31%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -57% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -57 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1242% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -86%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is null |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 75% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1147%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1943% |
| Key risksOGG key risks include [1] severe shareholder dilution stemming from its critical dependency on financing, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Osisko Gold (OGG) stock has gained about 5% since it went public on 7/20/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Successful Rebranding and Market Debut.
Osisko Gold Group Inc. commenced trading under its new "OGG" ticker on both the NYSE and TSXV on July 20, 2026, following its name change from Osisko Development Corp. This rebrand to a more explicitly gold-focused identity likely contributed to increased investor visibility and generated positive sentiment immediately following its market debut.
2. Strategic Project Development Agreement for Cariboo Gold Project.
The company announced on July 22, 2026, a Support and Benefits Agreement with the District of Wells, British Columbia, for its Cariboo Gold Project, effective July 21, 2026. This agreement demonstrates strong local support, which is crucial for project advancement and de-risks future operational phases.
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Osisko Gold (OGG) stock has gained about 5% since it went public on 7/20/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Successful Rebranding and Market Debut.
Osisko Gold Group Inc. commenced trading under its new "OGG" ticker on both the NYSE and TSXV on July 20, 2026, following its name change from Osisko Development Corp. This rebrand to a more explicitly gold-focused identity likely contributed to increased investor visibility and generated positive sentiment immediately following its market debut.
2. Strategic Project Development Agreement for Cariboo Gold Project.
The company announced on July 22, 2026, a Support and Benefits Agreement with the District of Wells, British Columbia, for its Cariboo Gold Project, effective July 21, 2026. This agreement demonstrates strong local support, which is crucial for project advancement and de-risks future operational phases.
3. Positive Exploration Results from Cariboo Gold Project.
On July 23, 2026, Osisko Gold Group reported final results from its infill drilling program in the Lowhee Zone of the Cariboo Gold Project. Positive exploration results, such as these, can significantly enhance investor confidence in the project's resource potential and the company's future production capabilities.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OGG | ||
| Market (SPY) | 3.9% | 35.7% |
| Sector (XLB) | -2.0% | -30.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OGG | ||
| Market (SPY) | 8.3% | 35.7% |
| Sector (XLB) | 2.8% | -30.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OGG | ||
| Market (SPY) | 19.2% | 35.7% |
| Sector (XLB) | 16.6% | -30.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OGG | ||
| Market (SPY) | 68.9% | 35.7% |
| Sector (XLB) | 24.2% | -30.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OGG Return | - | - | - | - | - | 6% | 6% |
| Peers Return | 6% | 10% | -4% | 11% | 90% | -4% | 127% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OGG Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 54% | 39% | 50% | 67% | 43% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OGG Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -24% | -37% | -31% | -18% | -18% | -34% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: FNV, RGLD, TFPM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/31/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
OGG has limited trading history. Below is the Materials sector ETF (XLB) in its place.
| Event | XLB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 84 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -12.5% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.3% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -23.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 456 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -36.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -18.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 101 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -17.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.7% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 62 days |
In The Past
State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -17.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 20.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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OGG has limited trading history. Below is the Materials sector ETF (XLB) in its place.
| Event | XLB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -23.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 456 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -36.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 140 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -23.8% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.2% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 171 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -28.2% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.3% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 459 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -56.6% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 130.3% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 701 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -17.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 20.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Osisko Gold (OGG)
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1. A REIT for gold mines.
2. A toll collector for gold production.
3. A franchisor for gold mines.
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- Gold Royalties: Financial interests that provide a percentage of future gold production or revenue from mining properties.
- Gold Streams: Agreements to purchase a fixed percentage of future gold production from specific mines at a predetermined, low price.
- Silver Royalties and Streams: Financial interests and purchase agreements related to future silver production, often acquired as part of broader precious metals deals.
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Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd (symbol: OGG) is a royalty and streaming company, meaning it provides upfront financing to mining companies in exchange for a percentage of future production (a royalty) or the right to purchase a fixed percentage of future production at a pre-set low price (a stream). When OGG receives physical precious metals (like gold or silver) through its streaming agreements, it sells these metals into the global commodity market.
Therefore, Osisko Gold primarily sells to other companies in the wholesale precious metals market, rather than directly to individuals. Its major customers are typically institutional buyers that facilitate the flow of gold in the global market. Given the highly liquid and commoditized nature of gold sales, specific long-term "major customers" are usually not disclosed by companies like Osisko Gold. However, the types of companies that purchase gold from OGG when it sells its metal include:
- Precious Metal Refiners: These companies purify raw or semi-processed gold into high-purity bullion. They are crucial intermediaries in the supply chain. Examples of major refiners include Valcambi, PAMP, Heraeus, and Metalor. These are often private companies or specialized divisions within larger groups.
- Bullion Banks: Large financial institutions with dedicated precious metals trading desks that act as market makers, facilitators, and distributors of gold to various clients (e.g., investors, jewelers, central banks, industrial users). Examples include JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM), HSBC Holdings plc (LSE: HSBA / NYSE: HSBC), and UBS Group AG (SIX: UBSG / NYSE: UBS).
- Large Commodity Trading Houses: Specialized firms that buy and sell large quantities of commodities, including precious metals, often facilitating trades between producers and end-users.
Due to the transactional nature of commodity sales in a deep and liquid market, Osisko Gold Royalties does not typically name specific "major customers" with whom it has long-term off-take agreements for its gold sales. The buyers are varied institutional participants in the global gold market.
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Sean E. Roosen, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer
Sean E. Roosen was appointed CEO in November 2020 and is a founder of Osisko Gold Group Inc.. He was a co-founder of Osisko Mining Corp., which developed and sold the Canadian Malartic mine in 2014 to Agnico Eagle Mines Limited and Yamana Gold Inc.. Mr. Roosen was also a co-winner of the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada (“PDAC”)'s “Prospector of the Year Award” for 2007.
Alexander Dann, C.P.A., Chief Financial Officer and Vice President, Finance
Alexander Dann was appointed Director of Finance/CFO in February 2021. He is a Chartered Professional Accountant (C.P.A.).
Chris Lodder, President
Chris Lodder has over 30 years of experience in exploration and mine development. He served as President, CEO, and a Director of Barkerville Gold Mines from 2016 until its acquisition by Osisko Gold Royalties in 2019.
David Rouleau, Vice President, Project Development
David Rouleau is the Vice President, Project Development for Osisko Gold Group Inc..
Laurence Farmer, General Counsel, Vice President, Strategic Development and Corporate Secretary
Laurence Farmer serves as the General Counsel, Vice President, Strategic Development and Corporate Secretary for Osisko Gold Group Inc..
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- Financing and Capital Access Risks: Osisko Gold's ability to execute its development and exploration activities is heavily dependent on securing adequate financing. The company has explicitly stated that its available capital resources have been insufficient to fund planned activities, necessitating additional funding. Shareholders have experienced substantial dilution in the past year, with a 123% increase in shares outstanding. Recent financing through convertible senior notes also led to a stock decline due to dilution concerns. Furthermore, the company has operated certain test mining activities, such as those at the Trixie test mine, without the benefit of a feasibility study, increasing the uncertainty of achieving anticipated recovery levels or costs and carrying a higher risk of economic and technical failure. This financial dependency and potential for dilution pose a significant risk to the company's future growth and stability.
- Operational and Project Development Risks: The company faces considerable operational risks associated with developing its mining projects, including obtaining and maintaining necessary third-party approvals and permits from governmental bodies. There is also a risk that exploration activities may not accurately predict mineralization, and management's geological modeling could contain errors. The company's test mining operations, such as those at Trixie, have been subject to suspensions, highlighting the precarious nature of early-stage production. A fatal incident at the Cariboo Gold Project in early 2026 also underscores the critical safety risks and potential for operational disruptions in mining development.
- Commodity Price Volatility: Osisko Gold's future revenues and profitability are directly exposed to the fluctuations in global metal and commodity prices, particularly gold. Adverse movements in these prices could significantly impact the economic viability of its projects and overall financial performance.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Osisko Gold (OGG)
Osisko Gold Group (OGG) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years primarily through the advancement of its flagship projects, particularly the Cariboo Gold Project, coupled with ongoing exploration and development of its broader asset portfolio. The company, which recently changed its name from Osisko Development Corp., is focused on converting gold discoveries into producing assets in North America.
- Ramp-up of Production at the Cariboo Gold Project: The Cariboo Gold Project in British Columbia is Osisko Gold Group's flagship asset, and its progression from development to full-scale production is a key driver for future revenue. The company is actively engaged in site activities, construction management, and drilling programs to advance the project.
- Successful Exploration and Resource Expansion: Osisko Gold Group continues to conduct extensive exploration and infill drilling programs across its properties, including within and adjacent to the Cariboo Gold Project. These efforts aim to expand existing mineral resources, delineate new discoveries, and extend mine life, thereby supporting long-term production growth.
- Advancement of Other Precious Metals Development Properties: Beyond the Cariboo Gold Project, Osisko Gold Group is focused on the development of other precious metals resource properties within its North American portfolio. The successful advancement of these additional projects through various stages of development to eventual production will contribute to a diversified and growing revenue stream.
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Share Repurchases
- Osisko Gold Group (formerly Osisko Development Corp.) had a 3-Year Share Buyback Ratio of -50.00% as of March 2026, indicating net share issuance rather than repurchases over that period.
Share Issuance
- Osisko Gold Group reported a net issuance of stock totaling $344.95 million for the fiscal year 2025.
- The company completed private placements for approximately US$203.1 million in gross proceeds during the third quarter of 2025.
- An additional private placement for approximately US$60.2 million (C$82.5 million) in gross proceeds was completed subsequent to Q3 2025.
Inbound Investments
- During Q3 2025, Osisko Gold Group drew approximately US$100.0 million under a US$450 million senior secured project loan credit facility from funds advised by Appian Capital Advisory Limited, designated for the development and construction of the Cariboo Gold Project.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for Osisko Gold Group were approximately -$103.18 million for the fiscal year 2025.
- Annual capital expenditure for Osisko Development Corp. (now Osisko Gold Group) was -C$144.2 million for December 2025.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures has been on advancing pre-construction activities and underground mine development at the Cariboo Gold Project.
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 113.56 |
| Mkt Cap | 16.8 |
| Rev LTM | 880 |
| Op Inc LTM | 555 |
| FCF LTM | -167 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 101 |
| CFO LTM | 611 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 432 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 62.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 36.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 77.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 16.1% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 79.4% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 39.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 61.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 54.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 72.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 74.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -19.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.1% |
Price Behavior
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -1.42 | -1.10 | 0.43 | -2.53 | 2.45 | 3.54 |
| Up Beta | 3.32 | 1.71 | -5.81 | -2.10 | 5.27 | 4.02 |
| Down Beta | -5.38 | -4.48 | 6.90 | -9.47 | -7.64 | -5.31 |
| Up Capture | 268% | 113% | 70% | 29% | 13% | 1% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Down Capture | 153% | 64% | 55% | 29% | 19% | 11% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with OGG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGG | 6.7% | 96.9% | 2.26 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 15.2% | 17.7% | 0.65 | -30.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 18.8% | 12.9% | 1.07 | 35.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.6% | 28.1% | 0.74 | 28.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 30.2% | 19.7% | 1.22 | 2.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.7% | 13.9% | 0.69 | -7.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -46.8% | 43.0% | -1.34 | 49.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with OGG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGG | 1.3% | 96.9% | 2.26 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 6.3% | 19.1% | 0.22 | -30.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.6% | 17.1% | 0.56 | 35.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.1% | 18.5% | 0.75 | 28.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.0% | 19.5% | 0.35 | 2.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.5% | 18.9% | 0.03 | -7.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 13.4% | 53.3% | 0.43 | 49.8% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with OGG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGG | 0.7% | 96.9% | 2.26 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 9.7% | 20.6% | 0.42 | -30.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 35.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.3% | 16.1% | 0.57 | 28.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.3% | 18.0% | 0.32 | 2.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 20.7% | 0.20 | -7.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 57.6% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 49.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Industry Resources
| Materials Resources |
| Chemical & Engineering News (C&EN) |
| Mining.com |
| Plastics News |
| Gold Resources |
| Kitco News |
| World Gold Council |
| Mining Journal |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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