Aya Gold & Silver (AYA)
Market Price (7/6/2026): $19.7 | Market Cap: $2.8 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Silver
Aya Gold & Silver (AYA)
Market Price (7/6/2026): $19.7Market Cap: $2.8 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Silver
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 321% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 46% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precious Metals & Strategic Minerals, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Silver Supply Dynamics, Responsible Mining & ESG, Show more. | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 118% Significant short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 19.07 |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 321% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 46% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precious Metals & Strategic Minerals, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Silver Supply Dynamics, Responsible Mining & ESG, Show more. |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 118% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 19.07 |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Updated on 7/1/2026
Aya Gold & Silver (AYA) stock has gained about 30% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Aya Gold & Silver reported exceptional financial and operational results for its fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026), significantly surpassing prior-year figures. Revenue surged by 247% year-over-year to $117 million, net income climbed by 600% to $49 million, and operating cash flow increased by 785% to $70 million. Consolidated silver equivalent production rose by 40% year-over-year to 1.5 million ounces.
2. The company benefited from a substantial increase in its average net realized silver equivalent price during fiscal Q1 2026, which directly boosted its top-line growth. The average net realized silver equivalent price reached $82.22 per ounce, representing a 158% increase year-over-year. This strong pricing, combined with a 34% year-over-year increase in consolidated silver equivalent ounces sold to 1.4 million, fueled record revenues.
Show more
Aya Gold & Silver (AYA) stock has gained about 30% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Aya Gold & Silver reported exceptional financial and operational results for its fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026), significantly surpassing prior-year figures. Revenue surged by 247% year-over-year to $117 million, net income climbed by 600% to $49 million, and operating cash flow increased by 785% to $70 million. Consolidated silver equivalent production rose by 40% year-over-year to 1.5 million ounces.
2. The company benefited from a substantial increase in its average net realized silver equivalent price during fiscal Q1 2026, which directly boosted its top-line growth. The average net realized silver equivalent price reached $82.22 per ounce, representing a 158% increase year-over-year. This strong pricing, combined with a 34% year-over-year increase in consolidated silver equivalent ounces sold to 1.4 million, fueled record revenues.
Show more
Updated on 7/1/2026
Aya Gold & Silver (AYA) stock has gained about 30% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Aya Gold & Silver reported exceptional financial and operational results for its fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026), significantly surpassing prior-year figures. Revenue surged by 247% year-over-year to $117 million, net income climbed by 600% to $49 million, and operating cash flow increased by 785% to $70 million. Consolidated silver equivalent production rose by 40% year-over-year to 1.5 million ounces.
2. The company benefited from a substantial increase in its average net realized silver equivalent price during fiscal Q1 2026, which directly boosted its top-line growth. The average net realized silver equivalent price reached $82.22 per ounce, representing a 158% increase year-over-year. This strong pricing, combined with a 34% year-over-year increase in consolidated silver equivalent ounces sold to 1.4 million, fueled record revenues.
3. Enhanced investor visibility and market access were achieved through key corporate developments during the period. Aya Gold & Silver commenced trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market on May 4, 2026, which was expected to improve its profile and broaden access for U.S. and international investors. Further boosting its market presence, the company was added to the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) on June 19, 2026, a move anticipated to increase share liquidity and awareness among global investors.
4. Positive exploration results and ongoing project development underscored the company's growth pipeline. Drilling programs at the Zgounder Silver Mine and the Boumadine polymetallic project confirmed high-grade mineralization continuity and identified new mineralized structures. For instance, the 2026 program at Boumadine includes an ambitious 200,000 meters of drilling, supporting potential for continued resource growth and scale.
Show less
Aya Gold & Silver (AYA) stock has gained about 30% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Aya Gold & Silver reported exceptional financial and operational results for its fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026), significantly surpassing prior-year figures. Revenue surged by 247% year-over-year to $117 million, net income climbed by 600% to $49 million, and operating cash flow increased by 785% to $70 million. Consolidated silver equivalent production rose by 40% year-over-year to 1.5 million ounces.
2. The company benefited from a substantial increase in its average net realized silver equivalent price during fiscal Q1 2026, which directly boosted its top-line growth. The average net realized silver equivalent price reached $82.22 per ounce, representing a 158% increase year-over-year. This strong pricing, combined with a 34% year-over-year increase in consolidated silver equivalent ounces sold to 1.4 million, fueled record revenues.
3. Enhanced investor visibility and market access were achieved through key corporate developments during the period. Aya Gold & Silver commenced trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market on May 4, 2026, which was expected to improve its profile and broaden access for U.S. and international investors. Further boosting its market presence, the company was added to the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) on June 19, 2026, a move anticipated to increase share liquidity and awareness among global investors.
4. Positive exploration results and ongoing project development underscored the company's growth pipeline. Drilling programs at the Zgounder Silver Mine and the Boumadine polymetallic project confirmed high-grade mineralization continuity and identified new mineralized structures. For instance, the 2026 program at Boumadine includes an ambitious 200,000 meters of drilling, supporting potential for continued resource growth and scale.
Show less
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 28.2% change in AYA stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 41.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 15.30 | 19.62 | 28.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 202 | 286 | 41.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.5% | 30.5% | 35.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 48.3 | 32.3 | -33.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 144 | 143 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 28.2% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AYA | 28.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.5% | 54.8% |
| Sector (XLB) | 4.1% | 49.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 36.5% change in AYA stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 1579.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 14.37 | 19.62 | 36.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 136 | 286 | 109.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.8% | 30.5% | 1579.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 806.6 | 32.3 | -96.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 139 | 143 | -3.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 36.5% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AYA | 36.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.5% | 44.6% |
| Sector (XLB) | 15.2% | 54.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 118.1% change in AYA stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 320.7% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.99 | 19.62 | 118.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 68 | 286 | 320.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 17.4 | 9.8 | -43.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 131 | 143 | -8.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 118.1% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AYA | 118.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 21.6% | 38.7% |
| Sector (XLB) | 20.2% | 44.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 205.6% change in AYA stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 622.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 6.42 | 19.62 | 205.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 40 | 286 | 622.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.3% | 30.5% | 225.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 199.4 | 32.3 | -83.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 115 | 143 | -19.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 205.6% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AYA | 205.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.0% | 27.6% |
| Sector (XLB) | 32.5% | 35.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AYA Return | 148% | -11% | 10% | 2% | 92% | 33% | 536% |
| Peers Return | -25% | -19% | -14% | 12% | 217% | -1% | 83% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 99% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AYA Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 25% | 50% | 58% | 71% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 37% | 48% | 47% | 48% | 70% | 51% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AYA Max Drawdown | -38% | -54% | -41% | -48% | -35% | -42% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -47% | -52% | -45% | -38% | -29% | -43% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PAAS, AG, HL, CDE, SSRM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/2/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AYA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 12 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -14.3% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.7% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 9 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.7% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -46.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 85.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 256 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -48.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 29 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -41.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 655 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Aya Gold & Silver's stock fell -25.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 33.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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| Event | AYA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 12 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.7% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -46.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 85.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 256 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -48.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 29 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -41.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 655 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Aya Gold & Silver's stock fell -25.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 33.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 18.72 |
| Mkt Cap | 9.9 |
| Rev LTM | 1,734 |
| Op Inc LTM | 703 |
| FCF LTM | 486 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 178 |
| CFO LTM | 714 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 368 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 94.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 43.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 97.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 17.4% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 283.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 376.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 39.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 5.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 45.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 25.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 31.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.1% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production - Zgounder | 200 | 39 | 43 | 38 | 34 |
| Exploration - Boumadine | 2 | ||||
| Exploration - Others | 0 | ||||
| Corporate unallocated costs | 0 | ||||
| Exploration, evaluation, and development | 0 | 0 | |||
| Corporate | 0 | 0 | |||
| Exploration, evaluation, and development (Mauritania) | 0 | ||||
| Exploration, evaluation, and development (Morocco) | 0 | ||||
| Total | 202 | 39 | 43 | 38 | 34 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production - Zgounder | 77 | 3 | 15 | 10 | 16 |
| Exploration - Others | 6 | ||||
| Exploration - Boumadine | 2 | ||||
| Corporate unallocated costs | -22 | -14 | |||
| Exploration, evaluation, and development | -28 | -1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corporate | -9 | -8 | -10 | ||
| Total | 63 | -39 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production - Zgounder | 387 | 283 | 218 | 87 | 50 |
| Corporate | 127 | 54 | 34 | 86 | |
| Exploration - Boumadine | 102 | ||||
| Exploration - Others | 16 | ||||
| Corporate unallocated costs | 44 | ||||
| Exploration, evaluation, and development | 73 | 36 | 26 | ||
| Exploration, evaluation, and development (Mauritania) | 26 | ||||
| Exploration, evaluation, and development (Morocco) | 35 | ||||
| Total | 632 | 400 | 333 | 157 | 161 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $19.62 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 2.8 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -9.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $18.68 | $15.50 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 5.0% | 26.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 79.3% | 82.8% |
| Downside Capture | 456.53 | 313.59 |
| Upside Capture | 323.91 | 342.01 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 54.9% | 39.0% |
AYA Betas & Captures as of 6/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.32 | 3.68 | 3.31 | 2.74 | 2.55 | 1.24 |
| Up Beta | 1.34 | 0.58 | 1.59 | 1.69 | 1.85 | 1.00 |
| Down Beta | 3.48 | 4.36 | 4.31 | 2.30 | 1.48 | 1.07 |
| Up Capture | 390% | 540% | 492% | 635% | 1233% | 500% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 23 | 35 | 67 | 139 | 392 |
| Down Capture | 356% | 376% | 381% | 227% | 183% | 108% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 18 | 27 | 57 | 111 | 352 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AYA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AYA | 117.7% | 82.3% | 1.30 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 17.2% | 17.5% | 0.75 | 45.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.7% | 12.5% | 1.29 | 38.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.1% | 27.7% | 0.73 | 68.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 21.3% | 18.6% | 0.90 | 15.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.6% | 13.8% | 0.68 | 13.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -42.0% | 42.7% | -1.15 | 30.9% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AYA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AYA | 20.4% | 69.2% | 0.56 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 6.9% | 19.0% | 0.25 | 34.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.3% | 17.1% | 0.60 | 26.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.9% | 18.3% | 0.79 | 56.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.9% | 19.5% | 0.25 | 25.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.1% | 18.9% | 0.06 | 19.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.2% | 53.8% | 0.41 | 16.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AYA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AYA | 25.0% | 80.1% | 0.79 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 10.3% | 20.7% | 0.44 | 28.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 23.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.1% | 0.61 | 46.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.7% | 18.0% | 0.25 | 27.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.5% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 19.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 59.0% | 66.2% | 0.99 | 14.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 7/5/2026