Aya Gold & Silver (AYA)
Market Price (6/16/2026): $20.32 | Market Cap: $2.9 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Silver
Aya Gold & Silver (AYA)
Market Price (6/16/2026): $20.32Market Cap: $2.9 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Silver
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 321% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 46% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precious Metals & Strategic Minerals, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Silver Supply Dynamics, Responsible Mining & ESG, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.5%, Dist 3Y High is -4.5% | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 113% Significant short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 16.15 |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 321% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 46% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precious Metals & Strategic Minerals, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Silver Supply Dynamics, Responsible Mining & ESG, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.5%, Dist 3Y High is -4.5% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 113% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 16.15 |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Aya Gold & Silver (AYA) stock has lost about 5% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Macroeconomic - Significant Decline in Silver Prices. The price of silver experienced a notable decline in fiscal Q2 2026, particularly from May to mid-June. Silver fell by 10.07% in the month leading up to June 16, 2026, trading at $69.84 USD/t.oz on that date. This broad commodity price weakness directly impacted silver producers like Aya Gold & Silver.
2. Company-Specific - Intermittent Operational Disruptions at Zgounder. Although Aya Gold & Silver reported record financial results for fiscal Q1 2026 (ending March 31, 2026), the company faced intermittent milling disruptions at its Zgounder mine during that quarter. These operational challenges led to an 8% quarter-over-quarter decrease in Zgounder's production, which may have tempered investor sentiment despite an overall strong financial performance.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -4.5% change in AYA stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -97.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 21.63 | 20.65 | -4.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 136 | 286 | 109.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.8% | 30.5% | 1579.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 1,214.3 | 34.0 | -97.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 139 | 143 | -3.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -4.5% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AYA | -4.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.3% | 65.4% |
| Sector (XLB) | -1.3% | 57.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 49.1% change in AYA stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 1579.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.85 | 20.65 | 49.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 136 | 286 | 109.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.8% | 30.5% | 1579.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 777.6 | 34.0 | -95.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 139 | 143 | -3.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 49.1% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AYA | 49.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.1% | 45.7% |
| Sector (XLB) | 18.6% | 53.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 140.3% change in AYA stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 320.7% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.59 | 20.65 | 140.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 68 | 286 | 320.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 16.6 | 10.4 | -37.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 131 | 143 | -8.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 140.3% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AYA | 140.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 29.5% | 38.3% |
| Sector (XLB) | 24.0% | 44.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 198.0% change in AYA stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 622.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 6.93 | 20.65 | 198.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 40 | 286 | 622.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.3% | 30.5% | 225.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 215.2 | 34.0 | -84.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 115 | 143 | -19.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 198.0% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AYA | 198.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 87.7% | 27.4% |
| Sector (XLB) | 48.4% | 34.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AYA Return | 148% | -11% | 10% | 2% | 92% | 30% | 523% |
| Peers Return | -25% | -19% | -14% | 12% | 217% | 0% | 86% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AYA Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 25% | 50% | 58% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 37% | 48% | 47% | 48% | 70% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AYA Max Drawdown | -38% | -54% | -41% | -48% | -35% | -42% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -47% | -52% | -45% | -38% | -29% | -43% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PAAS, AG, HL, CDE, SSRM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/15/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AYA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 12 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -14.3% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.7% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 9 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.7% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -46.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 85.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 256 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -48.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 29 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -41.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 655 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Aya Gold & Silver's stock fell -25.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 33.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | AYA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 12 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.7% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -46.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 85.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 256 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -48.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 29 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -41.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 655 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Aya Gold & Silver's stock fell -25.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 33.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 19.77 |
| Mkt Cap | 10.2 |
| Rev LTM | 1,734 |
| Op Inc LTM | 703 |
| FCF LTM | 486 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 178 |
| CFO LTM | 714 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 368 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 94.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 43.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 97.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 17.4% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 283.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 376.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 39.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 5.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 45.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 25.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 31.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 10.2 |
| P/S | 5.8 |
| P/Op Inc | 15.1 |
| P/EBIT | 13.9 |
| P/E | 27.7 |
| P/CFO | 13.1 |
| Total Yield | 3.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 0.4% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -6.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -10.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 14.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 120.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 230.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -15.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -22.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 0.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 96.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 141.0% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production - Zgounder | 200 | 39 | 43 | 38 | 34 |
| Exploration - Boumadine | 2 | ||||
| Exploration - Others | 0 | ||||
| Corporate unallocated costs | 0 | ||||
| Exploration, evaluation, and development | 0 | 0 | |||
| Corporate | 0 | 0 | |||
| Exploration, evaluation, and development (Mauritania) | 0 | ||||
| Exploration, evaluation, and development (Morocco) | 0 | ||||
| Total | 202 | 39 | 43 | 38 | 34 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production - Zgounder | 77 | 3 | 15 | 10 | 16 |
| Exploration - Others | 6 | ||||
| Exploration - Boumadine | 2 | ||||
| Corporate unallocated costs | -22 | -14 | |||
| Exploration, evaluation, and development | -28 | -1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corporate | -9 | -8 | -10 | ||
| Total | 63 | -39 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production - Zgounder | 387 | 283 | 218 | 87 | 50 |
| Corporate | 127 | 54 | 34 | 86 | |
| Exploration - Boumadine | 102 | ||||
| Exploration - Others | 16 | ||||
| Corporate unallocated costs | 44 | ||||
| Exploration, evaluation, and development | 73 | 36 | 26 | ||
| Exploration, evaluation, and development (Mauritania) | 26 | ||||
| Exploration, evaluation, and development (Morocco) | 35 | ||||
| Total | 632 | 400 | 333 | 157 | 161 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $20.65 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 3.0 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -4.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $18.18 | $15.00 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 13.6% | 37.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 82.3% | 81.6% |
| Downside Capture | 457.30 | 329.84 |
| Upside Capture | 361.59 | 327.14 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 63.8% | 38.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 4.79 | 3.12 | 2.97 | 2.43 | 2.26 | 1.13 |
| Up Beta | -1.35 | 0.14 | 1.99 | 1.98 | 1.73 | 0.97 |
| Down Beta | 11.27 | 10.19 | 2.87 | 1.74 | 0.81 | 0.96 |
| Up Capture | 556% | 399% | 343% | 503% | 967% | 329% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 25 | 32 | 69 | 140 | 393 |
| Down Capture | 605% | 590% | 338% | 214% | 186% | 107% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 6 | 15 | 30 | 54 | 108 | 351 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AYA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AYA | 114.0% | 81.3% | 1.29 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 21.2% | 17.5% | 0.94 | 44.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 26.6% | 12.4% | 1.62 | 39.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 27.1% | 27.5% | 0.86 | 68.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 28.6% | 19.1% | 1.19 | 13.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.2% | 13.5% | 0.60 | 13.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -40.1% | 42.2% | -1.10 | 29.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AYA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AYA | 19.7% | 69.0% | 0.55 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 5.9% | 19.0% | 0.21 | 33.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.9% | 17.1% | 0.63 | 26.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.5% | 18.2% | 0.78 | 55.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.9% | 19.4% | 0.30 | 25.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.5% | 18.8% | 0.03 | 19.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 13.7% | 54.4% | 0.44 | 16.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AYA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AYA | 25.6% | 80.1% | 0.80 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 10.3% | 20.7% | 0.44 | 28.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 23.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.8% | 16.1% | 0.66 | 45.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.4% | 18.0% | 0.28 | 26.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 19.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 59.8% | 66.8% | 1.00 | 13.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
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