United States Lime & Minerals (USLM)
Market Price (5/17/2026): $104.07 | Market Cap: $3.0 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Construction Materials
United States Lime & Minerals (USLM)
Market Price (5/17/2026): $104.07Market Cap: $3.0 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Construction Materials
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Wastewater Management, Show more. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.7% Key risksUSLM key risks include [1] heavy reliance on cyclical industries such as construction, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Wastewater Management, Show more. |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.7% |
| Key risksUSLM key risks include [1] heavy reliance on cyclical industries such as construction, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Weaker than expected Q1 2026 Financial Results.
United States Lime & Minerals reported first quarter 2026 revenues of $87.8 million, a 3.7% decrease from $91.3 million in Q1 2025, and net income of $30.6 million ($1.06 diluted earnings per share), a 10.4% decrease from $34.1 million ($1.19 diluted earnings per share) in Q1 2025. These results fell short of analyst expectations, who projected $102.0 million in revenue and $1.20 earnings per share.
2. Decreased Sales Volumes from Key Customer Segments.
The decline in Q1 2026 revenues was primarily attributed to decreased sales volumes. Specifically, the company experienced reduced demand from its construction, oil and gas services, and roof shingle customers.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -13.7% change in USLM stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/16/2026 was primarily driven by a -13.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 120.46 | 104.00 | -13.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 365 | 369 | 1.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 35.8% | 35.4% | -1.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.4 | 22.8 | -13.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 29 | 29 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -13.7% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| USLM | -13.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.1% | 33.1% |
| Sector (XLB) | 2.5% | 27.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -11.2% change in USLM stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/16/2026 was primarily driven by a -11.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 117.09 | 104.00 | -11.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 365 | 369 | 1.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 35.8% | 35.4% | -1.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.7 | 22.8 | -11.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 29 | 29 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -11.2% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| USLM | -11.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.0% | 39.5% |
| Sector (XLB) | 18.6% | 35.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 11.5% change in USLM stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/16/2026 was primarily driven by a 16.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 93.31 | 104.00 | 11.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 318 | 369 | 16.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 34.3% | 35.4% | 3.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.5 | 22.8 | -7.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 29 | 29 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 11.5% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| USLM | 11.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 34.8% | 41.2% |
| Sector (XLB) | 22.3% | 39.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 225.9% change in USLM stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/16/2026 was primarily driven by a 84.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 31.91 | 104.00 | 225.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 236 | 369 | 56.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.2% | 35.4% | 84.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.9 | 22.8 | 14.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 28 | 29 | -1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 225.9% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| USLM | 225.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 84.7% | 47.4% |
| Sector (XLB) | 32.5% | 43.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| USLM Return | 14% | 10% | 64% | 189% | -10% | -10% | 382% |
| Peers Return | 42% | -30% | 69% | 8% | 9% | 6% | 111% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| USLM Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 42% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 73% | 35% | 65% | 60% | 62% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| USLM Max Drawdown | -27% | -22% | -14% | -19% | -36% | -24% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -14% | -41% | -17% | -20% | -29% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: RMIX, CRH, VMC, MLM, JHX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/15/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | USLM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 65 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -11.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.5% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 45 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -21.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 28 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -10.9% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.3% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 97 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -14.8% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.3% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 62 days | 62 days |
In The Past
United States Lime & Minerals's stock fell -17.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 21.3% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | USLM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -21.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 28 days | 140 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.4% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 293 days | 15 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -36.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.9% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 20 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
United States Lime & Minerals's stock fell -17.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 21.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About United States Lime & Minerals (USLM)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are a few analogies to describe United States Lime & Minerals (USLM):
- Like Vulcan Materials, but focused on lime and limestone products instead of aggregates.
- A specialized version of Cemex, providing foundational lime and limestone materials for various industries.
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- Pulverized Limestone: Limestone that has been crushed and ground into a fine powder, used in various construction and industrial applications.
- Quicklime: A high-calcium lime produced by heating limestone, primarily used in steel production, environmental applications, and construction.
- Hydrated Lime: A white powder created by adding water to quicklime, utilized in environmental treatment, construction, and industrial processes.
- Lime Slurry: A mixture of lime and water, often used in water treatment, pH adjustment, and other industrial applications.
- Oil and Gas Royalty Interests: Revenue generated from royalty and non-operating working interests in natural gas wells located in the Barnett Shale Formation.
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Major Customers of United States Lime & Minerals (USLM)
United States Lime & Minerals (USLM) sells its products primarily to other companies.
The provided company description does not list the names of specific customer companies. Instead, it identifies major customer categories, which include:
- Construction customers, such as highway, road, and building contractors.
- Industrial customers, including paper and glass manufacturers.
- Environmental customers, comprising municipal sanitation and water treatment facilities, and flue gas treatment processes.
- Steel producers.
- Oil and gas services companies.
- Roof shingle manufacturers.
- Poultry and cattle feed producers.
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Timothy W. Byrne, President & Chief Executive Officer
Mr. Byrne rejoined United States Lime & Minerals, Inc. as President and Chief Executive Officer in December 2000, positions he had previously held from 1997 to 1998. He has served various other roles within the company, including Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Vice President of Finance and Administration from 1990 to 1998. Prior to rejoining in 2000, Mr. Byrne was president of Rainmaker Interactive, Inc., an Internet services and communications company focused on strategy, marketing, and technology. He also previously served as a Partner at a consulting and accounting firm in Washington, D.C. Mr. Byrne is a past president of the National Lime Association.
Michael L. Wiedemer, Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Wiedemer has served as Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of United States Lime & Minerals, Inc. since September 18, 2017. In this capacity, he is responsible for the company's overall financial strategy and management, overseeing aspects such as accounting, financial planning and analysis, treasury, tax, and investor relations. Prior to this role, he served as Corporate Controller for TearLab Corporation.
Nathan M. O'Neill, Vice President of Production
Mr. O'Neill joined United States Lime & Minerals, Inc. in 2008 as the Quality Control Manager of Arkansas Lime Company. He then served as the Vice President and Plant Manager of Arkansas Lime Company from 2012, with responsibility for all on-site operations, including major capital projects and customer interfacing. Mr. O'Neill was promoted to Vice President – Production in February 2023. His career in the lime industry began at Linwood Mining as a quality control chemist.
Timothy Wade Stone, Vice President of Sales & Marketing
Mr. Stone holds the position of Vice President of Sales & Marketing at United States Lime & Minerals, Inc.
M. Michael Owens, Secretary & Treasurer
Mr. Owens has served as Secretary and Treasurer at United States Lime & Minerals, Inc. since August 9, 2002. He also previously held the positions of Chief Financial Officer and Vice President from August 9, 2002, to September 18, 2017, and served as Principal Accounting Officer for the company. Additionally, Mr. Owens served as Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer, Vice President, Secretary, and Treasurer of IonSpec Corporation. Before joining United States Lime & Minerals Inc., he was Vice President of Finance at Sunshine Mining and Refining Company, a silver mining company, where he held various financial and accounting officer positions from 1983 to 2002. Mr. Owens possesses over 25 years of financial and accounting experience.
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Key Risks to the Business of United States Lime & Minerals (USLM)
- Exposure to Cyclical End Markets: A significant portion of United States Lime & Minerals' revenue is derived from industries highly sensitive to economic fluctuations, including construction (highway, road, building contractors, roof shingle manufacturers), steel production, and oil and gas services companies. Downturns or reduced activity in these sectors can lead to decreased demand for their pulverized limestone, quicklime, hydrated lime, and lime slurry products, thereby impacting sales volumes and profitability.
- Volatility of Energy Costs: The manufacturing process for lime is energy-intensive. Significant fluctuations or increases in energy costs, particularly natural gas which is a primary fuel source for lime kilns, can directly impact the company's operating expenses and compress profit margins for its core lime and limestone products.
- Natural Gas Price Volatility Affecting Royalty Income: United States Lime & Minerals holds various royalty and non-operating working interests in natural gas wells in the Barnett Shale Formation. Fluctuations in natural gas commodity prices directly influence the revenue generated from these interests, introducing an element of volatility to the company's overall income.
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The global energy transition away from fossil fuels, driven by climate change concerns, advancements in renewable energy technologies, and increasing regulatory and investor pressure, represents a clear emerging threat to the long-term value and profitability of the company's oil and gas royalty and non-operating working interests.
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United States Lime & Minerals (USLM) operates within several addressable markets in the United States, primarily for its lime and limestone products. The key markets and their estimated sizes are as follows:
U.S. Lime Market
The overall U.S. lime market, which includes quicklime, hydrated lime, pulverized lime, and lime slurry, was valued at approximately USD 2.3 billion in 2024. This market is projected to grow to USD 3.4 billion by 2032, demonstrating a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5.1% from 2025 to 2032. Another estimate places the U.S. lime market at USD 2.21 billion in 2025, with a projection to reach USD 3.13 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 3.94% from 2026 to 2034. The market is significantly driven by demand from the construction, steel manufacturing, environmental sciences, and agriculture sectors.
U.S. Quicklime Market
Quicklime constitutes the largest segment within the U.S. lime market, holding a 68.3% share in 2025. The U.S. quicklime market was valued at USD 2.6 billion in 2024 and is forecast to reach USD 3.7 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 3.0% in value. The demand for quicklime is substantial in industrial and environmental applications, including steel manufacturing, where it's crucial for impurity removal.
U.S. Hydrated Lime Market
The U.S. hydrated lime market is estimated to be valued at USD 970.2 million in 2025. It is anticipated to grow to USD 1.5 billion by 2035, at a CAGR of 4.2% over the forecast period of 2025 to 2035. This segment is expected to experience growth due to factors such as tightening federal water quality mandates.
U.S. Pulverized Limestone Market (Limestone Products)
The broader U.S. limestone market, which includes products like pulverized limestone, was estimated at USD 9.30 billion in 2023. This market is projected to reach USD 19.57 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 7.72% from 2023 to 2033. The building & construction sector accounted for the largest share of this market in 2023, with over 81% of the revenue, driven by limestone's durability, weather resistance, and versatility. The limestone powder market, a component of this, is also seeing significant activity, with North America contributing substantially to its growth.
U.S. Lime Slurry Market
Specific market sizing for lime slurry as a standalone product is not readily available, but it is a product type included in the overall U.S. lime market.
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United States Lime & Minerals (USLM) is expected to experience future revenue growth over the next two to three years driven by several key factors:
- Strong Demand from Construction and Infrastructure Projects: The company anticipates continued robust demand from its construction customers, including highway, road, and building contractors, with particular emphasis on significant projects such as large data centers. This broad demand for construction and infrastructure is a primary driver for its lime and limestone products.
- Increased Average Selling Prices: United States Lime & Minerals has demonstrated pricing power, with higher average selling prices for its core lime and limestone products contributing significantly to revenue growth and margin expansion.
- Growth in Sales Volumes: Alongside price increases, the company expects to see growth in sales volumes, fueled by strong market demand across its diverse customer base, including the construction, environmental, and steel sectors.
- Rising Demand from Environmental Applications: The increasing focus on environmental sustainability is leading to growing demand for lime and limestone products used in municipal sanitation, water treatment facilities, and flue gas desulfurization processes.
- Strategic Capacity Expansion and Modernization Initiatives: To meet anticipated demand, USLM is undertaking strategic modernization and expansion efforts in its operations, particularly in regions such as Texas, Arkansas, and Oklahoma, which are expected to bolster its competitive standing and market reach. These initiatives aim to enhance production capacity and operational efficiency.
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Share Repurchases- United States Lime & Minerals has engaged in quarterly share buybacks, totaling approximately $2.66 million in 2025, $3.50 million in 2024, $1.23 million in 2023, $0.76 million in 2022, and $0.73 million in 2021.
- The company performs modest and occasional share repurchases.
- The number of shares outstanding for United States Lime & Minerals has remained relatively stable, generally around 28-29 million shares between 2020 and 2025.
- A 5:1 stock split occurred on July 15, 2024.
- The company confirmed an annual capital expenditure budget of approximately $22 million, primarily allocated to operational modernization and equipment upgrades, including a significant investment in a new kiln in Texas.
- In the first quarter of 2025, capital investments were easily funded by robust cash generation, including a budgeted $65 million for a new vertical kiln at the Texas Lime Company subsidiary.
- For the full fiscal year 2024, investing cash flow, which encompasses capital expenditures, was -$26.86 million.
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| 12312024 | USLM | United States Lime & Minerals | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -22.9% | -9.6% | -35.8% |
| 10312023 | USLM | United States Lime & Minerals | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 56.9% | 171.3% | -2.7% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 103.60 |
| Mkt Cap | 33.7 |
| Rev LTM | 6,552 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,487 |
| FCF LTM | 1,034 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 838 |
| CFO LTM | 1,794 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,593 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 10.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 35.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 22.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 33.7 |
| P/S | 4.3 |
| P/Op Inc | 19.4 |
| P/EBIT | 20.9 |
| P/E | 22.8 |
| P/CFO | 18.8 |
| Total Yield | 4.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -7.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -17.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -4.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -0.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 50.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -12.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -25.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -16.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -23.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -27.3% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $104.00 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 3.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/26/1990 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -25.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $123.24 | $122.04 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -15.6% | -14.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 52.6% | 40.3% |
| Downside Capture | 115.09 | 176.83 |
| Upside Capture | 64.02 | 129.23 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 25.0% | 41.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.43 | 1.38 | 1.53 | 1.55 | 1.46 | 1.26 |
| Up Beta | 1.88 | 1.23 | 1.12 | 1.26 | 1.36 | 1.22 |
| Down Beta | 9.31 | 0.86 | 1.47 | 1.21 | 0.96 | 0.92 |
| Up Capture | 67% | 174% | 181% | 193% | 212% | 491% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 20 | 32 | 66 | 133 | 394 |
| Down Capture | 499% | 128% | 157% | 160% | 144% | 107% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 32 | 58 | 118 | 357 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with USLM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USLM | 0.8% | 40.2% | 0.12 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 20.3% | 16.7% | 0.94 | 40.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 27.4% | 12.1% | 1.71 | 41.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 42.5% | 26.8% | 1.30 | 13.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 45.4% | 18.5% | 1.88 | -9.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.5% | 13.5% | 0.56 | 25.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -23.7% | 41.8% | -0.54 | 29.7% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with USLM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USLM | 30.6% | 35.8% | 0.82 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 4.9% | 18.9% | 0.16 | 41.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.6% | 17.1% | 0.63 | 43.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.4% | 17.9% | 0.88 | 6.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.9% | 19.4% | 0.45 | 10.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.9% | 18.8% | 0.06 | 31.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.2% | 55.9% | 0.34 | 18.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with USLM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USLM | 26.9% | 36.3% | 0.76 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 10.3% | 20.6% | 0.44 | 46.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 47.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.0% | 16.0% | 0.67 | 3.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 17.9% | 0.38 | 14.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 39.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.4% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 14.2% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/29/2026 | -16.0% | -16.6% | |
| 2/2/2026 | -4.4% | -12.8% | 3.5% |
| 10/29/2025 | -4.0% | -11.1% | -7.8% |
| 7/30/2025 | -10.7% | -4.3% | 13.3% |
| 4/30/2025 | 4.8% | 4.0% | 10.0% |
| 2/3/2025 | 1.7% | -5.6% | -16.7% |
| 10/30/2024 | 5.3% | 28.2% | 42.9% |
| 7/31/2024 | -0.1% | -18.6% | -7.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 14 | 17 |
| # Negative | 11 | 10 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 3.2% | 4.2% | 10.0% |
| Median Negative | -2.7% | -7.1% | -7.4% |
| Max Positive | 6.3% | 28.2% | 42.9% |
| Max Negative | -16.0% | -18.6% | -16.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/28/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duhe, Sandra C | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 120.45 | 1,277 | 153,815 | 271,494 | Form | |
| 2 | Byrne, Timothy W | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 9052025 | 119.50 | 12,100 | 1,445,896 | 10,328,236 | Form |
| 3 | Byrne, Timothy W | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 9052025 | 121.05 | 27,425 | 3,319,724 | 11,927,040 | Form |
USLM Trade Sentinel
OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The calculated probability-adjusted skew of 2.76x places USLM firmly in Tier 1. The investment thesis hinges on the belief that the company's powerful regulatory moat and superior operational efficiency (Widening Moat) are durable enough to withstand the forecasted cyclical headwinds. The high upside probability is assigned because these company-specific factors are deemed more impactful than the macro-cyclical risks, which may already be partially reflected in the decelerating growth trend.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Cyclical / CommodityThe business is fundamentally tied to the price and volume of lime and limestone. Its revenue drivers are cyclical end-markets like construction and steel, and its primary risk is a sector-wide downturn. The 'Commodity Extractor' revenue archetype confirms this classification.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The market is underestimating the durability of USLM's exceptional margins due to a powerful, underappreciated regulatory moat. The extreme difficulty in permitting new quarries creates a structural supply constraint, granting USLM significant pricing power, especially in high-growth regions like Texas. This allows the company to sustain high returns on capital even as top-line growth moderates with the industrial cycle.
- Gross margin expanded from 48.2% to 51.2% YoY in Q3 2025, demonstrating pricing power is outpacing costs.
- Permitting new limestone quarries is exceptionally difficult, creating an insurmountable barrier to entry for new supply.
- Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) of 24% is double the industry average of 12%, indicating a superior business model.
- The market balance is bullish, with tight supply and solid demand supporting a strong pricing environment.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary risk is a cyclical downturn in USLM's key end-markets, which appears imminent based on leading indicators. The Architecture Billings Index (ABI), a reliable 9-12 month predictor for nonresidential construction, has been in contraction for 14 consecutive months. Combined with muted steel demand forecasts (1.8% growth), this points to a high probability of slowing volumes and a potential guidance cut in early 2026, which would pressure the stock's multiple.
- The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) has been below 50 for 14 consecutive months, signaling a future decline in construction.
- U.S. steel demand growth for 2026 is forecast at a sluggish 1.8%.
- Company management warned of a 'more mixed demand picture' in its Q3 2025 earnings report.
- Revenue growth has decelerated sequentially from 26.4% in Q1 2025 to 14.1% in Q3 2025.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Sales Volume Growth (YoY) | Maintain positive growth (>0%) | This is the primary indicator of end-market demand. A deceleration is expected, but a contraction would confirm the bear case and signal that pricing power may not be enough to offset volume declines. |
| Gross Margin % | Sustain above 48% | The entire long thesis rests on the durability of industry-leading margins. A compression below the prior year's level (48.2%) would indicate pricing power is eroding and the moat is less powerful than believed. |
| Architecture Billings Index (ABI) | Reclaim a reading > 50 | As the key leading indicator for the nonresidential construction market, a return to expansionary territory would invalidate the core bear thesis and signal a cyclical upswing is 9-12 months away, likely causing the stock's multiple to expand in anticipation. |
Peak Cycle vs. Durable Compounder
BULL VIEW
Bulls see a durable compounder with a regulatory moat, sustained pricing power, and demand from resilient segments like data centers, justifying its premium margins.
CORE TENSION
Whether USLM's record margins and growth are sustainable or a cyclical peak driven by temporary pricing power, vulnerable to a construction and industrial slowdown.
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
YoY revenue growth has decelerated for three consecutive quarters (Q1 2025: 26.4%, Q2: 19.6%, Q3: 14.1%), supporting the Bear case that momentum has peaked.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see decelerating revenue growth, softening demand commentary, and leading economic indicators pointing to a cyclical downturn that will compress industry-leading margins.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late April 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings & Guidance Watch: Revenue growth rate vs. prior deceleration trend and any formal revision to FY26 guidance. Focus on gross margin sustainability. |
Ongoing / Next 6 Months | Nonresidential Construction Data Watch: Architecture Billings Index (AIA) readings and monthly Value of Construction Put in Place reports from the U.S. Census Bureau. |
Ongoing / Next 6 Months | U.S. Steel Demand Updates Watch: Updates on steel production, capacity utilization, and forward-looking statements from major steel producers who are key customers. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-08-13 | 52-Week High Details: The stock continued its strong summer rally, reaching a new 52-week high, driven by positive sentiment in the broader construction and infrastructure materials sector. | Rose significantly by 3.57% $118.43 -> $122.66 |
2025-09-30 | Insider Stock Sales Details: President & CEO, Timothy W. Byrne, continued a pattern of stock sales, selling a significant block of shares during September 2025. | Muted (-0.33%) $131.48 -> $131.05 |
2025-10-29 | Q3 2025 Earnings Release Details: Reported Q3 EPS of $1.35, beating estimates. However, revenue growth decelerated to 14.1%, and management warned of a 'more mixed demand picture,' likely causing the negative stock reaction. | Fell notably by -4.0% $127.64 -> $122.53 |
2026-02-02 | Q4 2025 Earnings Release Details: Reported Q4 revenue of $87.9M (+9.8% YoY) and EPS of $1.06. Noted strong demand from construction and steel customers, offset by weakness in oil/gas services. | Rose significantly by 2.55% $120.53 -> $123.61 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
The combination of 'Low' near-term visibility and a clear trend of decelerating growth mandates a conservative position. While the moat is strong, we cannot expose significant capital until the growth trajectory stabilizes.
Diversification Alternatives
EXP
INDUSTRYEagle Materials has a more diversified business, with segments in Gypsum Wallboard and Cement, which can smooth cyclicality. USLM is a pure-play on lime, making it more vulnerable to a specific downturn.
SUM
INDUSTRYSummit Materials has a vertically integrated model and greater geographic diversity, with a strategic focus on high-growth markets and benefiting from public infrastructure spending (IIJA).
United States Lime & Minerals is a regionally-focused commodity producer whose strategic quarry locations and high-purity reserves create a geographic moat, resulting in pricing power and consistently high margins for its essential, non-substitutable lime and limestone products sold into construction and industrial end-markets.
Filter all news through the lens of regional industrial and construction demand, particularly in the U.S. south-central region, and any changes in energy input costs.
Announcements of new large-scale industrial projects (e.g., steel mills, data centers) in their operating territory; sustained or increased state/federal infrastructure spending; environmental regulations requiring greater use of lime for flue gas treatment or water purification.
A significant downturn in U.S. construction or steel production; a sustained spike in natural gas prices that cannot be passed on to customers; new, lower-cost competitor quarries opening within their key geographic markets.
Minor fluctuations in quarterly volumes due to weather; general commodity market commentary not specific to lime/limestone in the south-central U.S.; minor acquisitions or divestitures of non-core assets.
Repricing Catalyst
The primary catalyst is the continued strong demand from construction customers, especially those building large data center projects, which is driving both higher sales volumes and increased average selling prices. This allows the company to capitalize on its operational efficiency to expand its already high gross margins.
Lime & Limestone Products
$372730.0B TTM (99% of Total) · 50.6% MarginWhat It Is
Quicklime (calcium oxide), hydrated lime, and lime slurry from high-purity limestone reserves.
Who Pays & How
Customers in construction, steel production, and environmental services pay for high-purity, specification-critical lime products. USLM's strategically located quarries create a geographic moat, as lime is expensive to transport, locking in regional customers.
Competition
Natural Gas Interests (Non-Core)
$3765.0B TTM (1% of Total) · -99% MarginWhat It Is
Revenue from interests in natural gas wells.
Who Pays & How
Energy markets. This segment is primarily used to help offset energy costs in lime production.
Competition
External Quote Links
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| FinViz |
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