United States Lime & Minerals (USLM)
Market Price (2/9/2026): $108.73 | Market Cap: $3.1 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Construction Materials
United States Lime & Minerals (USLM)
Market Price (2/9/2026): $108.73Market Cap: $3.1 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Construction Materials
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11% | Key risksUSLM key risks include [1] heavy reliance on cyclical industries such as construction, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 42% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Wastewater Management, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 42% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Wastewater Management, Show more. |
| Key risksUSLM key risks include [1] heavy reliance on cyclical industries such as construction, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
United States Lime & Minerals (USLM) stock has lost about 5% since 10/31/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Q4 2025 Earnings and Revenue Miss.
United States Lime & Minerals reported fourth quarter 2025 revenues of $87.9 million and diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.06, which fell short of analyst expectations of $97.0 million in revenue and $1.13 in EPS. This earnings shortfall contributed to dampened investor sentiment despite overall year-over-year growth.
2. Cautious Q1 2026 Outlook and Operational Headwinds.
Management provided a cautious outlook for the first quarter of 2026, noting that a widespread winter storm in January 2026 caused temporary shipment interruptions. Additionally, the company observed continued weaker demand from its roof shingle customers, tempering near-term optimism for its operational performance.
Show more
1. Q4 2025 Earnings and Revenue Miss.
United States Lime & Minerals reported fourth quarter 2025 revenues of $87.9 million and diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.06, which fell short of analyst expectations of $97.0 million in revenue and $1.13 in EPS. This earnings shortfall contributed to dampened investor sentiment despite overall year-over-year growth.
2. Cautious Q1 2026 Outlook and Operational Headwinds.
Management provided a cautious outlook for the first quarter of 2026, noting that a widespread winter storm in January 2026 caused temporary shipment interruptions. Additionally, the company observed continued weaker demand from its roof shingle customers, tempering near-term optimism for its operational performance.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -7.3% change in USLM stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/8/2026 was primarily driven by a -7.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 117.16 | 108.55 | -7.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 365 | 365 | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 35.8% | 35.8% | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.7 | 23.8 | -7.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 29 | 29 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -7.3% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| USLM | -7.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.3% | 61.0% |
| Sector (XLB) | 20.3% | 45.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 9.1% change in USLM stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 4.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 2082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 99.48 | 108.55 | 9.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 352 | 365 | 3.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 35.6% | 35.8% | 0.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.7 | 23.8 | 4.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 29 | 29 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 9.1% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| USLM | 9.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.6% | 56.2% |
| Sector (XLB) | 18.0% | 49.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -1.6% change in USLM stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/8/2026 was primarily driven by a -25.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312025 | 2082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 110.34 | 108.55 | -1.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 303 | 365 | 20.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 32.6% | 35.8% | 9.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 31.9 | 23.8 | -25.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 29 | 29 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -1.6% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| USLM | -1.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.8% | 57.6% |
| Sector (XLB) | 17.7% | 53.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 260.8% change in USLM stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 89.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312023 | 2082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 30.08 | 108.55 | 260.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 224 | 365 | 62.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 18.9% | 35.8% | 89.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.2 | 23.8 | 17.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 28 | 29 | -0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 260.8% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| USLM | 260.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 76.2% | 48.4% |
| Sector (XLB) | 28.4% | 43.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| USLM Return | 14% | 10% | 64% | 189% | -10% | -11% | 379% |
| Peers Return | 46% | -28% | 66% | 11% | 4% | 7% | 117% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -1% | 81% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| USLM Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 73% | 35% | 65% | 58% | 62% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| USLM Max Drawdown | -1% | -20% | -4% | -6% | -36% | -11% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -3% | -40% | -3% | -7% | -21% | -1% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: JHX, CRH, VMC, MLM, EXP.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/6/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | USLM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 129 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -33.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 152 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -30.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 294 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -59.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 143.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 131 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to JHX, CRH, VMC, MLM, EXP
In The Past
United States Lime & Minerals's stock fell -34.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/10/2021. A -34.0% loss requires a 51.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About United States Lime & Minerals (USLM)
United States Lime & Minerals, Inc. manufactures and supplies lime and limestone products in the United States. It extracts limestone from open-pit quarries and an underground mine, and processes it as pulverized limestone, quicklime, hydrated lime, and lime slurry. The company supplies its products primarily to the construction customers, including highway, road, and building contractors; industrial customers, such as paper and glass manufacturers; environmental customers comprising municipal sanitation and water treatment facilities, and flue gas treatment processes; steel producers; oil and gas services companies; roof shingle manufacturers; and poultry and cattle feed producers. It also has various royalty interests and non-operating working interests with respect to oil and gas rights in natural gas wells located in Johnson County, Texas in the Barnett Shale Formation. The company was incorporated in 1950 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The Vulcan Materials (VMC) or Martin Marietta (MLM) of lime and limestone.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```html- Quicklime: A high-calcium product primarily used in steel manufacturing, road construction, and water treatment.
- Hydrated Lime: Produced by adding water to quicklime, used in various applications including water treatment, soil stabilization, and chemical processes.
- Pulverized Limestone: Ground limestone used as an additive in animal feed, asphalt, and as a filler in various industrial applications.
- Aggregates: Crushed stone and sand products used extensively in construction for roads, concrete, and building foundations, offered through a joint venture.
AI Analysis | Feedback
United States Lime & Minerals (USLM) - Major Customers
United States Lime & Minerals (USLM) primarily sells its products to **other companies** (business-to-business model) rather than directly to individuals. USLM's SEC filings (Form 10-K) consistently state that **no single customer accounts for more than 10% of its consolidated revenues** for recent fiscal years. This indicates a diversified customer base and means there are no specific "major customers" by name that the company is required to disclose, or chooses to disclose, publicly. Therefore, we cannot list specific customer company names or their stock symbols. Instead, USLM's major customers are found across various industrial sectors that utilize lime and limestone products. These key customer categories (industries) include:- Construction Industry: Customers include companies involved in infrastructure projects, road building, soil stabilization, asphalt paving, and ready-mix concrete production. They use USLM's products for road bases, foundations, and various building materials.
- Environmental Applications: This segment serves municipal water and wastewater treatment facilities, industrial waste treatment operations, and companies involved in flue gas desulfurization (e.g., power plants) and acid mine drainage treatment.
- Industrial and Manufacturing Sector: This broad category includes customers in diverse manufacturing processes such as steel production (lime as a flux), paper manufacturing, glass manufacturing, and chemical processing.
- Mining Industry: Lime is used for pH control, flotation, and other processing activities in various mining operations.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Timothy W. Byrne President & Chief Executive Officer
Mr. Byrne was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of United States Lime & Minerals in December 2000, a role he previously held from 1997 to 1998. He has served as a director since 1991 and held various positions with the company, including Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Vice President of Finance and Administration, from 1990 to 1998. Before rejoining United States Lime & Minerals in 2000, Mr. Byrne was the president of Rainmaker Interactive, Inc., an Internet services and communications company focused on strategy, marketing, and technology. He also served as a Director at Firstmark Corp. Mr. Byrne is a past president of the National Lime Association.
Michael L. Wiedemer Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Wiedemer serves as the Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of United States Lime & Minerals. He joined the company in 2002. Prior to his tenure at United States Lime & Minerals, Mr. Wiedemer was the Vice President of Finance at Sunshine Mining and Refining Company, a silver mining company, where he held various financial and accounting officer positions from 1983 to 2002. He also served as the Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer, Vice President, Secretary, and Treasurer of IonSpec Corporation. Mr. Wiedemer has over 25 years of financial and accounting experience.
Russell W. Riggs Vice President – Production
Mr. Riggs joined United States Lime & Minerals in 2006 as Vice President – Production. He brings over 35 years of experience in the lime and limestone industry. Before 2005, Mr. Riggs held various plant and operations management positions with Chemical Lime Company, which is now known as Lhoist North America. In 2005, he worked as a consultant for several engineering companies and as a project manager for a specialty minerals-based company.
John J. Gagnon Vice President – Business Development
Mr. Gagnon joined United States Lime & Minerals in 2014 as a Technical Sales & Business Development Representative and was promoted to Vice President – Business Development in 2022. He possesses more than 27 years of experience in the mining industry. Prior to joining United States Lime & Minerals, Mr. Gagnon held various plant, sales, and operations management positions with Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.
Timothy W. Stone Vice President – Sales and Marketing
Mr. Stone joined United States Lime & Minerals in 2018. He was promoted to Vice President – Sales and Marketing in April 2022, having previously served as the Director – Sales and Marketing since June 2019. Before joining the company, Mr. Stone spent 18 years at another company.
AI Analysis | Feedback
United States Lime & Minerals (USLM) faces several key risks to its business operations:- Market Dependence and Cyclicality: The company's revenue is heavily reliant on the demand for lime and limestone products, which are sensitive to general economic conditions and specific economic cycles within industries such as construction, steel manufacturing, and oil and gas services. Downturns in these sectors can lead to reduced demand for USLM's products. Additionally, a decrease in demand from coal-fired utility plants due to ongoing retirements of such facilities also poses a risk.
- Volatile Energy and Transportation Costs: United States Lime & Minerals' operations are significantly impacted by fluctuations in the prices of critical energy sources, including coal, petroleum coke, diesel, and natural gas, as well as transportation costs. The company's ability to fully offset these increased costs by passing them on to customers or through hedging activities may be limited, potentially affecting profitability.
- Regulatory and Environmental Changes: The company is exposed to risks associated with evolving environmental laws and regulations. Changes in these regulations could result in increased compliance costs, necessitate operational adjustments, and potentially impact the company's ability to operate its facilities, thereby affecting its financial performance.
AI Analysis | Feedback
null
AI Analysis | Feedback
United States Lime & Minerals (USLM) manufactures and supplies a range of lime and limestone products, including high calcium quicklime, hydrated lime, limekiln dust, lime slurry, and high calcium limestone. The company primarily serves markets in the Central United States.
Addressable Market Sizes for Main Products:
- Lime Products (including Quicklime, Hydrated Lime, Limekiln Dust, and Lime Slurry): The U.S. lime market was valued at approximately USD 2.23 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 3.17 billion by 2033, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.80%. Other estimates place the U.S. lime market at USD 2.3 billion in 2024, expected to increase to USD 3.4 billion by 2032 with a CAGR of 5.1%. Within the U.S. lime market, quicklime is a dominant segment, accounting for a significant share.
- Quicklime: The North America quicklime market was valued at USD 1.54 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 2.22 billion by 2032. It is also expected to reach approximately USD 3.22 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 4.0% in North America. Quicklime is extensively used in steel manufacturing, environmental treatment, and construction activities.
- Hydrated Lime: The global hydrated lime market was valued at USD 17.93 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 31.32 billion by 2035, at a CAGR of 5.2%. Hydrated lime is utilized in various applications such as soil stabilization, mortar, and plaster, as well as in water treatment solutions.
- Limestone (including High Calcium Limestone and Pulverized Limestone): The U.S. limestone market was valued at USD 9.34 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 7.3% from 2024 to 2030. Another source indicates the U.S. limestone market is estimated to reach USD 17.23 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 7.5% from 2024 to 2031. Limestone is widely used in industries such as construction, agriculture, and water treatment.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for United States Lime & Minerals (USLM) over the next 2-3 years:
- Sustained Demand in Key End Markets: United States Lime & Minerals is expected to benefit from continued strong demand for its lime and limestone products, particularly from the construction, environmental, and steel sectors. Recent financial results indicate that increases in sales volumes have been principally driven by these customer groups.
- Strategic Pricing Power: The company has demonstrated an ability to implement and sustain increases in the average selling prices of its lime and limestone products. This strategic pricing has been a consistent contributor to revenue growth in recent quarters and is anticipated to continue.
- Operational Efficiency and Margin Expansion: While not a direct revenue driver, the company's improved gross profit and EBIT margins, driven by operational efficiency, enhance its overall financial health. This profitability allows for reinvestment into the business and strengthens its competitive position, indirectly supporting sustainable revenue growth.
- Organic Expansion and Potential for Strategic Acquisitions: United States Lime & Minerals boasts a debt-free balance sheet and significant cash reserves, positioning it well for future investments. This strong financial standing enables organic expansion initiatives and potential targeted acquisitions to further grow its market presence and product offerings.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- The Board of Directors extended a repurchase program for up to $10,000,000 of its common stock, with $7,151,226 remaining available under the program.
- In the third quarter of 2024, the company repurchased 801,287 shares for approximately $4.8 million.
- For the full year 2024, United States Lime & Minerals repurchased $3.5 million worth of its common stock.
Share Issuance
- A 5-for-1 stock split was announced on May 6, 2024, and became payable on July 12, 2024, increasing the total outstanding shares from 5.7 million to 28.5 million.
Outbound Investments
- In 2022, United States Lime & Minerals acquired Mill Creek Dolomite for $5.6 million.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were $26.8 million in 2022 and $34.3 million in 2023, with a guided sustaining capital expenditure of approximately $22 million per year.
- The company is undertaking a major investment in a new kiln in Texas, with an estimated construction cost of $65 million, which began in 2024 and is expected to be completed in 2025.
- As of September 30, 2025, $24.8 million had been incurred on the Texas kiln project, with $22.1 million paid in cash, and $28.8 million was committed for open purchase orders related to this project.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 176.49 |
| Mkt Cap | 27.6 |
| Rev LTM | 5,706 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,161 |
| FCF LTM | 653 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 342 |
| CFO LTM | 1,201 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 771 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 22.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 23.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 23.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 27.6 |
| P/S | 4.4 |
| P/EBIT | 22.0 |
| P/E | 30.4 |
| P/CFO | 19.7 |
| Total Yield | 3.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 12.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 6.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 10.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 88.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 9.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 9.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -0.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -6.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 18.8% |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $108.55 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 3.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/26/1990 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -19.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $124.46 | $115.70 |
| DMA Trend | up | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | -12.8% | -6.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 34.7% | 38.2% |
| Downside Capture | 276.23 | 159.55 |
| Upside Capture | 202.12 | 137.99 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 65.2% | 57.5% |
USLM Betas & Captures as of 1/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.03 | 1.81 | 1.58 | 1.65 | 1.11 | 1.17 |
| Up Beta | 1.75 | 1.74 | 1.40 | 2.39 | 1.03 | 1.19 |
| Down Beta | 1.54 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 0.87 |
| Up Capture | 225% | 249% | 216% | 210% | 168% | 362% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 34 | 71 | 142 | 430 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 24 | 35 | 66 | 126 | 395 |
| Down Capture | 278% | 238% | 184% | 161% | 127% | 104% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 54 | 109 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 25 | 58 | 124 | 354 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with USLM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USLM | -2.6% | 38.3% | 0.01 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 17.4% | 20.7% | 0.67 | 53.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 19.4% | 0.61 | 57.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 73.9% | 24.8% | 2.19 | 5.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.9% | 16.6% | 0.34 | 14.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.6% | 16.5% | 0.10 | 37.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -27.1% | 44.7% | -0.57 | 34.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with USLM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USLM | 33.9% | 34.8% | 0.91 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 9.6% | 18.9% | 0.40 | 43.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.4% | 17.0% | 0.68 | 45.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.4% | 16.9% | 1.03 | 4.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.5% | 18.9% | 0.49 | 14.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 18.8% | 0.17 | 31.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 16.1% | 58.0% | 0.49 | 18.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with USLM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USLM | 27.1% | 35.6% | 0.78 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 12.4% | 20.7% | 0.54 | 47.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 47.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.7% | 15.5% | 0.84 | 1.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 17.6% | 0.37 | 16.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.0% | 20.7% | 0.25 | 40.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.7% | 66.7% | 1.08 | 13.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/2/2026 | |||
| 10/29/2025 | -4.0% | -11.1% | -7.8% |
| 7/30/2025 | -10.7% | -4.3% | 13.3% |
| 4/30/2025 | 4.8% | 4.0% | 10.0% |
| 2/3/2025 | 1.7% | -5.6% | -16.7% |
| 10/30/2024 | 5.3% | 28.2% | 42.9% |
| 7/31/2024 | -0.1% | -18.6% | -7.3% |
| 4/30/2024 | 3.4% | 19.9% | 11.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 14 | 16 |
| # Negative | 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 3.2% | 4.2% | 10.6% |
| Median Negative | -2.4% | -5.6% | -7.6% |
| Max Positive | 6.3% | 28.2% | 42.9% |
| Max Negative | -10.7% | -18.6% | -16.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/10/2022 | 10-K |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Byrne, Timothy W | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 9052025 | 121.05 | 27,425 | 3,319,724 | 11,927,040 | Form |
| 2 | Byrne, Timothy W | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 9052025 | 119.50 | 12,100 | 1,445,896 | 10,328,236 | Form |
| 3 | Duhe, Sandra C | Direct | Sell | 2252025 | 94.61 | 3,157 | 298,684 | 201,330 | Form |
USLM Trade Sentinel
Core Investment Debate
Peak Cycle vs. Durable Compounder
BULL VIEW
Bulls see a durable compounder with a regulatory moat, sustained pricing power, and demand from resilient segments like data centers, justifying its premium margins.
CORE TENSION
Whether USLM's record margins and growth are sustainable or a cyclical peak driven by temporary pricing power, vulnerable to a construction and industrial slowdown.
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
NEUTRAL
YoY revenue growth has decelerated for three consecutive quarters (Q1 2025: 26.4%, Q2: 19.6%, Q3: 14.1%), supporting the Bear case that momentum has peaked.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see decelerating revenue growth, softening demand commentary, and leading economic indicators pointing to a cyclical downturn that will compress industry-leading margins.
Potential Catalysts
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late April 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings & Guidance Watch: Revenue growth rate vs. prior deceleration trend and any formal revision to FY26 guidance. Focus on gross margin sustainability. |
Ongoing / Next 6 Months | Nonresidential Construction Data Watch: Architecture Billings Index (AIA) readings and monthly Value of Construction Put in Place reports from the U.S. Census Bureau. |
Ongoing / Next 6 Months | U.S. Steel Demand Updates Watch: Updates on steel production, capacity utilization, and forward-looking statements from major steel producers who are key customers. |
Key Events in Last 6 Months
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-02-02 | Q4 2025 Earnings Release Details: Reported Q4 revenue of $87.9M (+9.8% YoY) and EPS of $1.06. Noted strong demand from construction and steel customers, offset by weakness in oil/gas services. | Rose significantly by 2.55% |
2025-10-29 | Q3 2025 Earnings Release Details: Reported Q3 EPS of $1.35, beating estimates. However, revenue growth decelerated to 14.1%, and management warned of a 'more mixed demand picture,' likely causing the negative stock reaction. | Fell notably by -4.0% |
2025-09-30 | Insider Stock Sales Details: President & CEO, Timothy W. Byrne, continued a pattern of stock sales, selling a significant block of shares during September 2025. | Muted (-0.33%) |
2025-08-13 | 52-Week High Details: The stock continued its strong summer rally, reaching a new 52-week high, driven by positive sentiment in the broader construction and infrastructure materials sector. | Rose significantly by 3.57% |
Risk Management
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
The combination of 'Low' near-term visibility and a clear trend of decelerating growth mandates a conservative position. While the moat is strong, we cannot expose significant capital until the growth trajectory stabilizes.
Diversification Alternatives
EXP
INDUSTRYEagle Materials has a more diversified business, with segments in Gypsum Wallboard and Cement, which can smooth cyclicality. USLM is a pure-play on lime, making it more vulnerable to a specific downturn.
Core Thesis: EXP is a low-cost producer in cement and wallboard with strong market positions. Its commitment to shareholder returns via buybacks and dividends, combined with a solid balance sheet, makes it a resilient operator.
SUM
INDUSTRYSummit Materials has a vertically integrated model and greater geographic diversity, with a strategic focus on high-growth markets and benefiting from public infrastructure spending (IIJA).
Core Thesis: A vertically integrated construction materials leader with strong pricing power in aggregates and cement, poised to benefit from long-term infrastructure investment. The recent Argos USA merger enhances scale and synergies.
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.