Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.0%, Dist 3Y High is -2.0%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.0%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 37%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -4.8%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -2.0%
 
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, Sustainable Infrastructure, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 37%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, Sustainable Infrastructure, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more.
3 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.0%, Dist 3Y High is -2.0%
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -4.8%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -2.0%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.0%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

STLD Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Steel Dynamics (STLD) experienced a notable period from late August 2025 to early December 2025. Here are key points explaining the stock's movement: **1. Strategic Acquisition of New Process Steel.** Steel Dynamics completed the acquisition of the remaining 55% ownership interest in New Process Steel on December 1, 2025, bringing its total stake to 100%. This strategic move is aimed at strengthening Steel Dynamics' value-added manufacturing capabilities and deepening its commercial relationship with New Process Steel, which was its largest flat-rolled steel customer. The acquisition is expected to enhance exposure to differentiated and higher-margin opportunities within the value-added manufacturing space and bolster the company's market positioning. **2. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results.** Steel Dynamics reported robust third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 20, 2025, with net sales of $4.8 billion and net income of $404 million, or $2.74 per diluted share. This represented a significant improvement compared to the sequential second quarter 2025 net income of $299 million, or $2.01 per diluted share. The strong performance was driven by record steel shipments of 3.6 million tons and metal spread expansion, as scrap raw material costs declined more than average realized steel selling values. **3. Positive Analyst Ratings and Price Target Increases.** Several financial institutions issued positive updates and increased price targets for Steel Dynamics during this period. For instance, in late November 2025, Bank of America raised its price target to $185 from $155, maintaining a Buy rating. Similarly, in October 2025, Jefferies Financial Group increased its price target from $165.00 to $180.00 with a "buy" rating, and Citigroup lifted its target from $150.00 to $180.00, also with a "buy" rating. These positive analyst sentiments and revised targets likely contributed to investor confidence. **4. Fourth Quarter 2025 Cash Dividend Announcement.** On November 7, 2025, Steel Dynamics announced its board of directors declared a fourth-quarter 2025 cash dividend of $0.50 per common share, payable on or about January 9, 2026. This consistent return of capital to shareholders, along with a track record of raising dividends for 13 consecutive years, demonstrates financial discipline and can attract investors. **5. Debt Refinancing and Financial Flexibility.** In November 2025, Steel Dynamics completed a debt financing transaction, issuing $650 million of 4.000% Notes due 2028 and $150 million of 5.250% Notes due 2035. The proceeds were intended to redeem $400 million of 5.000% Notes due 2026 and for general corporate purposes. Fitch Ratings assigned a 'BBB+' rating to the new senior unsecured notes, reflecting expectations of maintaining strong financial metrics. This active management of the capital structure and strong financial health can be viewed positively by the market.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
STLD Return12%71%60%23%-2%49%454%
Peers Return6%47%34%46%15%59%457%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
STLD Win Rate58%67%58%50%67%70% 
Peers Win Rate52%57%55%55%53%72% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
STLD Max Drawdown-54%-7%-15%-6%-8%-4% 
Peers Max Drawdown-62%-9%-18%-5%-25%-18% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NUE, ATI, CLF, STLD, CRS. See STLD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSTLDS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-32.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven48.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven289 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-54.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven119.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven240 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-51.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven104.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven675 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-87.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven677.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven3305 days1480 days

Compare to NUE, ATI, CLF, STLD, CRS


In The Past

Steel Dynamics's stock fell -32.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/3/2023. A -32.5% loss requires a 48.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Steel Dynamics (STLD)

Better Bets than Steel Dynamics (STLD)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to STLD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.4%3.4%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.0%1.0%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
29.7%29.7%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
9.9%9.9%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.2%5.2%-2.5%
STLD_3312023_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%03312023STLDSteel DynamicsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-4.4%33.0%-18.7%
STLD_8312022_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%08312022STLDSteel DynamicsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
61.3%34.2%-13.7%
STLD_9302021_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%09302021STLDSteel DynamicsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
43.8%23.5%-9.9%
STLD_1312020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield01312020STLDSteel DynamicsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.2%19.1%-48.1%
STLD_11302018_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11302018STLDSteel DynamicsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-27.6%-1.3%-27.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.4%3.4%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.0%1.0%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
29.7%29.7%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
9.9%9.9%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.2%5.2%-2.5%
STLD_3312023_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%03312023STLDSteel DynamicsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-4.4%33.0%-18.7%
STLD_8312022_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%08312022STLDSteel DynamicsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
61.3%34.2%-13.7%
STLD_9302021_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%09302021STLDSteel DynamicsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
43.8%23.5%-9.9%
STLD_1312020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield01312020STLDSteel DynamicsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.2%19.1%-48.1%
STLD_11302018_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11302018STLDSteel DynamicsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-27.6%-1.3%-27.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Steel Dynamics

Peers to compare with:

Financials

STLDNUEATICLFCRSMedian
NameSteel Dy.Nucor ATI Clevelan.Carpente. 
Mkt Price168.11162.54100.4012.75314.74162.54
Mkt Cap24.737.513.86.315.815.8
Rev LTM17,63530,8064,58318,6222,89317,635
Op Inc LTM1,5192,143631-1,539561631
FCF LTM311-385444-1,547269269
FCF 3Y Avg1,0183,115153141162162
CFO LTM1,5243,130679-921439679
CFO 3Y Avg2,5625,842372804282804

Growth & Margins

STLDNUEATICLFCRSMedian
NameSteel Dy.Nucor ATI Clevelan.Carpente. 
Rev Chg LTM-1.5%-5.8%7.7%-6.8%2.4%-1.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-8.0%-10.4%8.6%-7.2%14.6%-7.2%
Rev Chg Q11.2%4.7%7.1%3.6%2.2%4.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.8%1.2%1.6%0.9%0.6%1.2%
Op Mgn LTM8.6%7.0%13.8%-8.3%19.4%8.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg13.7%13.9%12.4%-1.9%13.6%13.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.5%-0.0%0.2%0.3%1.1%0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM8.6%10.2%14.8%-4.9%15.2%10.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg13.8%17.0%8.4%3.6%9.9%9.9%
FCF/Rev LTM1.8%-1.2%9.7%-8.3%9.3%1.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.4%8.7%3.3%0.3%5.7%5.4%

Valuation

STLDNUEATICLFCRSMedian
NameSteel Dy.Nucor ATI Clevelan.Carpente. 
Mkt Cap24.737.513.86.315.815.8
P/S1.21.02.40.34.31.2
P/EBIT13.813.716.1-3.921.513.8
P/E18.223.125.1-3.629.723.1
P/CFO13.49.516.4-6.628.013.4
Total Yield6.9%6.1%4.0%-27.7%3.7%4.0%
Dividend Yield1.4%1.7%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg5.6%7.7%0.9%0.5%1.7%1.7%
D/E0.20.20.21.30.10.2
Net D/E0.10.10.11.30.00.1

Returns

STLDNUEATICLFCRSMedian
NameSteel Dy.Nucor ATI Clevelan.Carpente. 
1M Rtn10.9%12.6%4.6%19.4%2.7%10.9%
3M Rtn28.9%12.6%30.1%21.2%31.1%28.9%
6M Rtn28.2%38.0%21.3%79.6%27.6%28.2%
12M Rtn20.8%10.8%67.6%2.5%62.5%20.8%
3Y Rtn64.7%12.5%230.4%-19.2%679.6%64.7%
1M Excs Rtn9.6%11.4%3.3%18.1%1.4%9.6%
3M Excs Rtn19.5%5.0%23.5%6.1%21.5%19.5%
6M Excs Rtn12.8%22.6%5.9%64.1%12.2%12.8%
12M Excs Rtn4.5%-7.6%54.8%-14.0%48.8%4.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-2.0%-57.7%177.4%-89.0%633.8%-2.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Steel Operations13,06815,10114,0237,4568,234
Metals Recycling Operations4,1594,3964,5902,4032,494
Steel Fabrication Operations2,8074,2571,765906963
Other1,1721,2881,267501401
Aluminum Operations2860   
Eliminations-2,695-2,781-3,236-1,665-1,627
Total18,79522,26118,4099,60110,465


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Steel Operations1,8823,0934,3608891,031
Steel Fabrication Operations1,5932,425365121119
Metals Recycling Operations481161823316
Aluminum Operations17-2   
Eliminations654-55-77
Other-395-594-552-189-186
Total3,1515,0924,301847987


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Steel Operations8,6508,6168,6866,2885,171
Other3,2492,8131,5241,5711,849
Aluminum Operations1,444186   
Metals Recycling Operations1,3401,3211,2671,116940
Steel Fabrication Operations7901,3491,195377386
Eliminations-566-125-141-87-71
Total14,90814,16012,5319,2668,276


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,695,394
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202529.2%
Average Daily Volume1,225,086
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.02
Basic Shares Quantity146,947,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251024202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025811202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025512202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024510202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221026202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022802202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022429202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021