Tearsheet

Nutrien (NTR)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $60.04 | Market Cap: $29.2 Bil
Sector: Materials | Industry: Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals

Nutrien (NTR)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $60.04
Market Cap: $29.2 Bil
Sector: Materials
Industry: Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 3.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.9%, FCF Yield is 7.5%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.7%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -11%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 4.2 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.1 Bil
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -27%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -90%
 
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 28%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, Hydrogen Economy, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Resource Efficiency Solutions, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 3.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.9%, FCF Yield is 7.5%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 4.2 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.1 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 28%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, Hydrogen Economy, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Resource Efficiency Solutions, Show more.
4 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.7%
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -27%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -90%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -11%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NTR Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Strong Global Demand for Crop Nutrients and Firm Prices. Nutrien benefited from healthy demand for crop nutrients, supported by strong global agricultural markets and tight inventories expected to keep crop prices firm throughout 2025. This demand extended across potash, phosphate, and nitrogen fertilizers in key markets, including North America, India, and Brazil. 2. Record Potash Sales and Increased Guidance for 2025. The company achieved record potash sales volumes in the first nine months of 2025, driven by robust consumption in North America and major offshore markets. Consequently, Nutrien raised its potash sales volume guidance for 2025 to 14-14.5 million tons.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NTR Return6%62%-1%-20%-16%38%57%
Peers Return6%49%6%-22%-3%-0%28%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NTR Win Rate50%75%42%33%42%60% 
Peers Win Rate53%60%55%40%52%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NTR Max Drawdown-48%0%-9%-27%-18%0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-49%-6%-13%-36%-17%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CF, FMC, IPI, CTVA, NTR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNTRS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-54.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven117.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-48.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven92.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven252 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-24.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven32.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven812 days120 days

Compare to CF, FMC, IPI, CTVA, NTR


In The Past

Nutrien's stock fell -54.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/18/2022. A -54.0% loss requires a 117.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Nutrien (NTR)

Better Bets than Nutrien (NTR)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NTR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.4%3.4%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.0%1.0%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
29.7%29.7%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
9.9%9.9%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.2%5.2%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.4%3.4%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.0%1.0%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
29.7%29.7%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
9.9%9.9%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.2%5.2%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Nutrien

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NTRCFFMCIPICTVAMedian
NameNutrien CF Indus.FMC Intrepid.Corteva  
Mkt Price60.0580.2313.2925.6666.2960.05
Mkt Cap29.212.91.70.345.012.9
Rev LTM26,6246,7363,60827817,4696,736
Op Inc LTM3,5782,09743372,7162,097
FCF LTM2,1321,710-409282,6691,710
FCF 3Y Avg2,4491,574-4091,4211,421
CFO LTM4,1532,633-318543,2192,633
CFO 3Y Avg4,7892,60962611,9901,990

Growth & Margins

NTRCFFMCIPICTVAMedian
NameNutrien CF Indus.FMC Intrepid.Corteva  
Rev Chg LTM0.3%12.6%-13.4%8.9%5.0%5.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-10.6%-13.5%-13.6%-6.1%0.8%-10.6%
Rev Chg Q12.3%21.1%-49.1%-7.5%12.6%12.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.5%4.5%-12.7%-1.5%1.7%1.7%
Op Mgn LTM13.4%31.1%12.0%2.5%15.5%13.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg13.7%33.2%15.4%1.6%13.0%13.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM2.0%1.9%-4.8%0.9%0.9%0.9%
CFO/Rev LTM15.6%39.1%-8.8%19.6%18.4%18.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg17.0%38.5%1.2%22.3%11.6%17.0%
FCF/Rev LTM8.0%25.4%-11.3%10.0%15.3%10.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg8.7%22.3%-1.2%3.7%8.3%8.3%

Valuation

NTRCFFMCIPICTVAMedian
NameNutrien CF Indus.FMC Intrepid.Corteva  
Mkt Cap29.212.91.70.345.012.9
P/S1.12.11.21.42.61.4
P/EBIT8.86.51,913.81,515.218.418.4
P/E15.810.5-7.9-2.028.610.5
P/CFO6.95.5-13.37.314.36.9
Total Yield10.1%11.9%-9.2%-49.0%3.7%3.7%
Dividend Yield3.7%2.3%3.5%0.0%0.3%2.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg9.0%10.1%-2.1%2.3%3.2%3.2%
D/E0.50.21.10.00.10.2
Net D/E0.50.11.0-0.20.00.1

Returns

NTRCFFMCIPICTVAMedian
NameNutrien CF Indus.FMC Intrepid.Corteva  
1M Rtn12.0%-4.5%-0.9%-0.1%6.3%-0.1%
3M Rtn6.4%-4.1%-63.7%-12.5%-8.5%-8.5%
6M Rtn1.5%-12.0%-67.3%-32.3%-6.4%-12.0%
12M Rtn30.3%-10.2%-76.2%-5.2%9.5%-5.2%
3Y Rtn-13.5%-16.9%-88.6%-25.5%6.5%-16.9%
1M Excs Rtn10.7%-5.8%-2.2%-1.3%5.1%-1.3%
3M Excs Rtn1.6%-10.3%-70.0%-15.5%-13.9%-13.9%
6M Excs Rtn-14.0%-27.5%-82.7%-47.8%-21.9%-27.5%
12M Excs Rtn17.7%-23.1%-89.7%-19.7%-5.8%-19.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-89.9%-92.4%-161.5%-101.6%-68.7%-92.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Retail23,05624,45122,38720,52619,990
Potash13,57113,92113,14811,70711,696
Nitrogen11,46611,80711,09310,07710,991
Corporate and Others2,8182,6222,2663,9172,129
Phosphate2,4382,6611,6991,3882,198
Eliminations-600-876-639-423-205
Total52,74954,58649,95447,19246,799


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,489,477
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-0.5%
Average Daily Volume2,315,984
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.94
Basic Shares Quantity485,583,000
Short % of Basic Shares0.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
9302025110620256-K 9/30/2025
630202580720256-K 6/30/2025
331202550820256-K 3/31/2025
12312024228202540-F 12/31/2024
9302024110720246-K 9/30/2024
630202480820246-K 6/30/2024
331202450920246-K 3/31/2024
12312023301202440-F 12/31/2023
9302023110120236-K 9/30/2023
630202380320236-K 6/30/2023
331202351120236-K 3/31/2023
12312022224202340-F 12/31/2022
9302022110320226-K 9/30/2022
630202280420226-K 6/30/2022
331202250320226-K 3/31/2022
12312021225202240-F 12/31/2021