Kinross Gold (KGC)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $27.9 | Market Cap: $33.9 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Gold
Kinross Gold (KGC)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $27.9Market Cap: $33.9 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Gold
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.3%, FCF Yield is 7.4% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.1%, Dist 3Y High is -2.1% | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 194% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 68% | |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 40% | Key risksKGC key risks include [1] operational headwinds leading to higher all-in sustaining costs and [2] potential permitting delays for significant development projects, Show more. | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 52%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, CFO LTM is 3.3 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.2 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precious Metals & Global Resources. Themes include Gold Mining & Production, and Sustainable Mining Practices. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.3%, FCF Yield is 7.4% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 40% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 52%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, CFO LTM is 3.3 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.2 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precious Metals & Global Resources. Themes include Gold Mining & Production, and Sustainable Mining Practices. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.1%, Dist 3Y High is -2.1% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 194% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 68% |
| Key risksKGC key risks include [1] operational headwinds leading to higher all-in sustaining costs and [2] potential permitting delays for significant development projects, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
KGC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Kinross Gold (KGC) experienced a 33.9% stock movement from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, driven by several key factors:
1. Significant Increase in Gold Prices: The price of gold saw a substantial rise during this period, reaching an all-time high of $4,381.58 per troy ounce in October 2025 and maintaining elevated levels through December 2025, climbing from around $3,447.73 per ounce at the end of August 2025 to $4,332.45 per ounce by December 18, 2025. This sustained increase provided a strong tailwind for Kinross Gold, a major gold producer.
2. Strong Third-Quarter 2025 Financial Performance: Kinross Gold reported robust results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, including a record free cash flow of approximately $700 million and an increase in margins by 54% to $2,310 per gold equivalent ounce sold compared to Q3 2024. The company's reported earnings of $0.48 per share and adjusted net earnings of $0.44 per share, along with revenue of $1.82 billion, surpassed analyst consensus estimates.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| KGC Return | 56% | -19% | -28% | 52% | 56% | 202% | 551% |
| Peers Return | 99% | 44% | -0% | -3% | 10% | 102% | 516% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| KGC Win Rate | 42% | 42% | 25% | 75% | 67% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 56% | 58% | 50% | 78% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| KGC Max Drawdown | -27% | -30% | -46% | -16% | -21% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -13% | -28% | -22% | -21% | -9% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NEM, GOLD, AEM. See KGC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | KGC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -62.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 167.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 713 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -41.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -50.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 101.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 267 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -71.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 250.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 6,197 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to NEM, FCX, HL, AEM, B
In The Past
Kinross Gold's stock fell -62.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/17/2021. A -62.6% loss requires a 167.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to KGC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 42.2% | 42.2% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.0% | 15.0% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 42.2% | 42.2% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.0% | 15.0% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Kinross Gold
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 66.08 |
| Mkt Cap | 59.0 |
| Rev LTM | 11,256 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,916 |
| FCF LTM | 2,943 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,658 |
| CFO LTM | 4,593 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,131 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 29.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 24.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 30.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 7.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 42.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 24.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 47.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 38.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 31.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 59.0 |
| P/S | 4.5 |
| P/EBIT | 11.3 |
| P/E | 20.9 |
| P/CFO | 9.5 |
| Total Yield | 5.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 13.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 24.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 63.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 130.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 192.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 12.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 22.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 51.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 116.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 122.7% |
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 10,543 | ||||
| Tasiast | 3,082 | 2,973 | 2,912 | 2,700 | 2,312 |
| Paracatu | 1,973 | 1,974 | 2,017 | 2,226 | 2,024 |
| Great Bear | 1,498 | 1,401 | |||
| Fort Knox | 1,334 | 826 | 750 | 720 | 633 |
| Corporate and other | 892 | 1,259 | 1,532 | 2,076 | 1,089 |
| Round Mountain | 731 | 827 | 1,074 | 1,028 | 847 |
| La Coipa | 520 | 637 | |||
| Bald Mountain | 513 | 500 | 586 | 857 | 862 |
| Chirano | 407 | 430 | 255 | ||
| Discontinued operations | 1,151 | ||||
| Kupol | 897 | 1,053 | |||
| Total | 21,087 | 10,396 | 10,428 | 10,933 | 9,076 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3272025 | 40-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3272024 | 40-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3312023 | 40-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3312022 | 40-F 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |