Tearsheet

USA Rare Earth (USAR)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $13.61 | Market Cap: $1.4 Bil
Sector: Materials | Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining

USA Rare Earth (USAR)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $13.61
Market Cap: $1.4 Bil
Sector: Materials
Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -15%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Battery Technology & Metals. Themes include Rare Earth Elements.
  Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -28 Mil
2   Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 45403%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17%
4   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 62148%
5   Key risks
USAR key risks include [1] significant pre-commercial hurdles stemming from its key project's low-grade geology and unproven extraction processes, Show more.
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -15%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Battery Technology & Metals. Themes include Rare Earth Elements.
2 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
3 Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -28 Mil
5 Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 45403%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17%
7 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 62148%
8 Key risks
USAR key risks include [1] significant pre-commercial hurdles stemming from its key project's low-grade geology and unproven extraction processes, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

USAR Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the -9.1% stock movement for USA Rare Earth (USAR) from approximately August 31, 2025, to today:

1. Disappointing Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results: On November 6, 2025, USA Rare Earth reported a net loss of $156.7 million for the third quarter of 2025, significantly exceeding analyst expectations of a $0.10 loss per share with an actual adjusted net loss of $0.25 per share. The company reported no sales for the period, leading to a negative market reaction that saw the stock fall over 7% in after-market trading.

2. China's Pause on Rare Earth Export Controls: Following an initial surge in USA Rare Earth's stock in October due to China's announcement of new rare earth export restrictions, the stock experienced a significant downturn in November. This reversal occurred when China decided to pause these export controls, leading many investors to withdraw their investments and contributing to a 30.8% crash in the stock during November.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
USAR Return0%0%0%0%0%50236%50236%
Peers Return41%-17%5%-31%177%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
USAR Win Rate0%0%0%0%0%67% 
Peers Win Rate44%44%38%44%40%65% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
USAR Max Drawdown0%0%0%0%0%0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-9%-28%-24%-43%-15% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MP, UUUU, NB, MTRN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

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In The Past

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Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About USA Rare Earth (USAR)

Better Bets than USA Rare Earth (USAR)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to USAR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.9%5.9%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.6%0.6%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
45.1%45.1%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
17.1%17.1%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.6%6.6%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.9%5.9%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.6%0.6%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
45.1%45.1%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
17.1%17.1%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.6%6.6%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for USA Rare Earth

Peers to compare with:

Financials

USARMPUUUUNBMTRNMedian
NameUSA Rare.MP Mater.Energy F.NioCorp .Materion  
Mkt Price13.5652.0313.475.28124.2113.56
Mkt Cap1.49.13.10.52.62.6
Rev LTM02337901,73479
Op Inc LTM-28-185-102-23145-28
FCF LTM-26-230-145-3182-31
FCF 3Y Avg--225-87-2038-53
CFO LTM-13-78-109-17160-17
CFO 3Y Avg--1-51-15133-8

Growth & Margins

USARMPUUUUNBMTRNMedian
NameUSA Rare.MP Mater.Energy F.NioCorp .Materion  
Rev Chg LTM-26.4%103.7%-3.9%26.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg--18.7%91.8%-0.3%0.3%
Rev Chg Q--14.9%337.6%-1.9%1.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM--3.9%21.0%-0.5%0.5%
Op Mgn LTM--79.5%-129.6%-8.4%-79.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg--45.2%-97.1%-8.1%-45.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM--14.5%2.3%-0.2%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM--33.7%-138.7%-9.2%-33.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg--5.3%-84.6%-7.8%-5.3%
FCF/Rev LTM--98.8%-183.6%-4.7%-98.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg--99.3%-164.2%-2.2%-99.3%

Valuation

USARMPUUUUNBMTRNMedian
NameUSA Rare.MP Mater.Energy F.NioCorp .Materion  
Mkt Cap1.49.13.10.52.62.6
P/S-50.445.4-1.445.4
P/EBIT-7.3-87.7-35.0-39.7-21.1
P/E-7.7-99.8-36.5-8.8129.1-8.8
P/CFO-135.7-149.7-32.7-30.415.7-32.7
Total Yield-13.1%-1.0%-2.7%-11.4%1.0%-2.7%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg--5.4%-4.9%-1.6%-4.9%
D/E0.00.10.0-0.20.0
Net D/E-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.1

Returns

USARMPUUUUNBMTRNMedian
NameUSA Rare.MP Mater.Energy F.NioCorp .Materion  
1M Rtn-6.2%-8.7%-10.0%-5.2%10.0%-6.2%
3M Rtn-12.6%-22.1%-4.3%-3.3%6.0%-4.3%
6M Rtn7.0%39.8%133.4%99.2%61.4%61.4%
12M Rtn45,403.4%183.2%142.7%266.7%17.2%183.2%
3Y Rtn45,403.4%81.9%126.4%19.9%48.3%81.9%
1M Excs Rtn-6.9%-9.4%-10.7%-5.9%9.3%-6.9%
3M Excs Rtn-18.7%-29.2%-5.8%-9.4%0.5%-9.4%
6M Excs Rtn-5.4%27.4%121.1%86.9%49.0%49.0%
12M Excs Rtn45,392.3%157.5%114.6%250.6%1.9%157.5%
3Y Excs Rtn45,334.9%-2.7%50.9%-48.6%-19.0%-2.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil2024
Vertically integrated, domestic rare earth element magnet production supply chain0
Total0


Assets by Segment
$ Mil2024
Vertically integrated, domestic rare earth element magnet production supply chain67
Total67


Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity12,656,070
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202550.0%
Average Daily Volume8,231,440
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.54
Basic Shares Quantity102,589,000
Short % of Basic Shares12.3%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/6/20259.7%-6.1%10.7%
8/11/202523.3%1.7%-10.2%
5/14/20256.4%3.6%48.9%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive322
# Negative011
Median Positive9.7%2.6%29.8%
Median Negative -6.1%-10.2%
Max Positive23.3%3.6%48.9%
Max Negative -6.1%-10.2%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025811202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025515202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024331202510-K 12/31/2024
630202411122024S-4 6/30/2024
123120231062025S-4/A 12/31/2023