USA Rare Earth (USAR)
Market Price (12/24/2025): $14.12 | Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining
USA Rare Earth (USAR)
Market Price (12/24/2025): $14.12Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Diversified Metals & Mining
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -18% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Battery Technology & Metals. Themes include Rare Earth Elements. | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -28 Mil | |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 47249% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -20% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 62148% | ||
| Key risksUSAR key risks include [1] significant pre-commercial hurdles stemming from its key project's low-grade geology and unproven extraction processes, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -18% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Battery Technology & Metals. Themes include Rare Earth Elements. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -28 Mil |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 47249% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -20% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 62148% |
| Key risksUSAR key risks include [1] significant pre-commercial hurdles stemming from its key project's low-grade geology and unproven extraction processes, Show more. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. USA Rare Earth reported a wider-than-expected net loss for Q3 2025, missing analyst expectations and causing the stock to fall by 6.28% in after-hours trading on November 6, 2025.2. News on August 18, 2025, indicated that Chinese exports of rare earth minerals had returned to their highest levels since January, leading to a 7.7% drop in USAR stock due to concerns about decreased demand for USA Rare Earth's services.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -21.0% change in USAR stock from 9/23/2025 to 12/23/2025 was primarily driven by a -10.6% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| 9232025 | 12232025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 17.85 | 14.11 | -20.95% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0.00 | 0.00 | � |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | � |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 92.77 | 102.59 | -10.59% |
| Cumulative Contribution | � |
Market Drivers
9/23/2025 to 12/23/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| USAR | -21.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.7% | 23.2% |
| Sector (XLB) | 1.6% | 19.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 11.1% change in USAR stock from 6/24/2025 to 12/23/2025 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| 6242025 | 12232025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 12.70 | 14.11 | 11.10% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 0.00 | � |
| P/S Multiple | � | ∞ | � |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 59.42 | 102.59 | -72.64% |
| Cumulative Contribution | � |
Market Drivers
6/24/2025 to 12/23/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| USAR | 11.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.7% | 15.2% |
| Sector (XLB) | 4.9% | 5.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 47249.0% change in USAR stock from 12/23/2024 to 12/23/2025 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| 12232024 | 12232025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 0.03 | 14.11 | 47248.99% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0.00 | 0.00 | � |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | � |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 59.42 | 102.59 | -72.64% |
| Cumulative Contribution | � |
Market Drivers
12/23/2024 to 12/23/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| USAR | 47249.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.7% | -5.6% |
| Sector (XLB) | 9.1% | -4.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
12/24/2023 to 12/23/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| USAR | 47249.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 48.4% | -5.6% |
| Sector (XLB) | 10.4% | -4.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| USAR Return | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 47014% | 47014% |
| Peers Return | � | 41% | -17% | 5% | -31% | 185% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 114% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| USAR Win Rate | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 44% | 44% | 38% | 44% | 40% | 67% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| USAR Max Drawdown | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | -9% | -28% | -24% | -43% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MP, UUUU, NB, MTRN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/23/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
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nullIn The Past
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-2 brief analogies to describe USA Rare Earth (USAR):
- Albemarle for rare earth elements.
- A domestic Rio Tinto for rare earth elements.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Rare Earth Oxides (REOs): These are refined chemical compounds extracted from rare earth minerals, serving as foundational materials for various industrial applications.
- Rare Earth Metals: Purified metallic forms of elements like neodymium and praseodymium, essential for manufacturing high-performance magnets and other advanced technologies.
- Neodymium Iron Boron (NdFeB) Permanent Magnets: High-strength magnets critical for electric vehicles, wind turbines, defense applications, and various electronics, which the company aims to produce domestically.
AI Analysis | Feedback
USA Rare Earth (symbol: USAR) is an early commercial stage company focused on the development of a full domestic rare earth supply chain. As such, it sells primarily to other companies (B2B) rather than directly to individuals.
While specific major customer names are not publicly disclosed by USA Rare Earth in its financial filings or press releases, the company has indicated that it anticipates selling its rare earth oxides and metals to the following types of companies:
- Magnet Manufacturers: These companies utilize rare earth elements like Neodymium and Praseodymium to produce high-performance permanent magnets essential for electric vehicle motors, wind turbines, and various electronic devices.
- Automotive Companies: Particularly those involved in the production of electric vehicles (EVs), which rely heavily on rare earth magnets for their motors and other components.
- Defense Contractors: Rare earth elements are critical components in many defense technologies, including precision-guided munitions, radar systems, and communication equipment.
- Other Technology Companies: This broad category includes manufacturers of a wide range of high-tech products, such as consumer electronics, catalysts, and specialized alloys that incorporate rare earth elements.
As an "early commercial stage company," USA Rare Earth is currently generating limited revenue from the sale of certain rare earths from its Fort IND Production Plant, with expectations for growth in these customer categories in the future.
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- Hatch
- SGS S.A. (SGSN.SW)
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Barbara Humpton
Chief Executive Officer
Barbara Humpton was appointed CEO of USA Rare Earth, effective October 1, 2025. She previously served as President and CEO of Siemens USA for 14 years, where she was responsible for developing organic initiatives and integrating numerous large acquisitions, growing the company into a major industrial entity with over $20 billion in revenues. Prior to her tenure at Siemens, Humpton held senior positions at Booz Allen Hamilton and Lockheed Martin Corporation. She also served on the Board of Directors of Triumph Group until its acquisition in 2025 by private equity firms Warburg Pincus and Berkshire Partners.
William Robert (Rob) Steele Jr.
Chief Financial Officer
William Robert (Rob) Steele Jr. was appointed Chief Financial Officer of USA Rare Earth, effective March 24, 2025. He brings over three decades of experience in finance and investment banking, having led more than $28 billion in capital raises and M&A transactions across both private and public markets. Before joining USA Rare Earth, Steele served as Global CFO at Mujin Corp., an industrial robotics software company. He also held a senior leadership role as Managing Director at Bank of America Securities, where he was responsible for public and private equity, debt, and M&A transactions.
David Bushi
Senior Vice President of Manufacturing
David Bushi was appointed Senior Vice President of Manufacturing for USA Rare Earth, effective June 5, 2025. He leads the company's manufacturing operations at its Stillwater, Oklahoma, sintered neodymium magnet production facility. Bushi has over 25 years of large-scale manufacturing experience, most recently serving as Vice President of Manufacturing for CoorsTek, a ceramics manufacturer. His background includes expertise in high-volume manufacturing across the automotive, defense, and aerospace industries.
David Thomas Kronenfeld
Chief Legal Officer & Company Secretary
David Thomas Kronenfeld serves as the Chief Legal Officer and Company Secretary for USA Rare Earth.
Lionel C. McBee
Vice President of Investor Relations
Lionel C. McBee holds the position of Vice President of Investor Relations at USA Rare Earth.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key risks to USA Rare Earth (USAR):- Geopolitical Risks and Chinese Dominance: USA Rare Earth faces substantial risks due to its exposure to the dynamics of U.S.-China trade, including potential Chinese export controls and market volatility in the rare earth sector. China currently dominates the rare earth supply chain, especially in processing (70-80%), which poses a significant challenge to USAR's efforts to establish a self-sufficient domestic supply chain. While U.S. policy aims to reduce reliance on Chinese rare earths, the company is vulnerable to geopolitical shifts, policy execution risks, and trade deals that could ease Chinese supply concerns and potentially undermine the strategic necessity of domestic alternatives.
- Operational and Financial Risks from Pre-Commercial Stage: The company is currently in developmental phases, with its Round Top project in Texas facing geological challenges such as low-grade mineralization and complex extraction requirements. This raises concerns about the commercial viability of its cost structures compared to established players. USA Rare Earth has reported significant net losses, indicating financial strain due to high operational costs and the lack of extensive non-Chinese processing infrastructure. The absence of validated separation processes and proven mineral beneficiation insights further exacerbates these operational risks.
- Market Volatility and Dependence on Government Support: USA Rare Earth's stock performance is highly susceptible to policy announcements and geopolitical tensions rather than its operational achievements. The company's valuation is significantly influenced by government industrial policy and the timing of federal partnerships, with investor sentiment often driven by whether USAR is selected for government backing. Instances where other companies received federal funding have led to considerable stock declines for USAR, highlighting investor impatience and the critical reliance on favorable government policies and contracts.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Development of Non-Rare Earth Magnet Technologies
A clear emerging threat for USA Rare Earth (USAR) is the accelerating research and development into high-performance permanent magnets that do not rely on rare earth elements. Governments (e.g., the U.S. Department of Energy, European Union) and private entities are investing heavily in technologies such as iron nitride and manganese-based magnets. The explicit strategic goal of these initiatives is to reduce global reliance on rare earth metals, particularly for critical applications like electric vehicle motors and wind turbines. While these technologies are not yet commercially dominant, the increasing pace and funding of their development represent an emerging and direct threat to the long-term demand for the rare earth elements that USA Rare Earth aims to produce for magnet applications. Should these alternative magnet technologies prove viable, scalable, and cost-effective, they could significantly erode the future market for rare earth magnets, impacting USAR's potential revenue and market position.
AI Analysis | Feedback
USA Rare Earth (USAR) operates in several critical minerals and rare earth elements markets. The addressable market sizes for their main products and services are as follows:
- Rare Earth Elements (REEs) / Rare Earth Oxides (REOs): The global rare earth elements market was valued at approximately USD 12.44 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 37.06 billion by 2033, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.83%. Another estimate places the global rare earth oxides market at USD 6.2 billion in 2024, projected to grow to USD 18.2 billion by 2034. The U.S. rare earth elements market is projected to reach an estimated value of USD 394.39 million by 2032.
- Neodymium-Iron-Boron (NdFeB) Magnets: The global NdFeB permanent magnets market size was estimated at USD 30.54 billion in 2024 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 59.74 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 6.94%. Other estimates show the global market at USD 20.38 billion in 2024, projected to grow to USD 37.18 billion by 2032.
- Lithium: The global lithium market size was valued at USD 37.43 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 164.77 billion by 2033, registering a CAGR of 17.9%. The U.S. lithium market was worth USD 4.24 billion in 2022 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 20.7% during the forecast period (2023-2030).
- Gallium: The global gallium market size was valued at USD 364.49 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 533.62 million by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 4.3%. Another report indicates worldwide revenue from gallium sales is projected to increase from USD 2.45 billion in 2024 to USD 21.53 billion by the end of 2034. The North American gallium market is forecasted to expand at a 27.8% CAGR from 2024 to 2034.
- Hafnium: The global hafnium market size reached 87.9 tons in 2024 and is expected to reach 136.4 tons by 2033, exhibiting a growth rate (CAGR) of 5.01%. Another estimate states the global hafnium market was valued at 127.75 metric tons in 2024, with revenue expected to reach nearly 221.14 metric tons by 2032. North America led the global hafnium market in 2024.
- Beryllium: The global beryllium market size reached USD 179.5 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 266.8 million by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 4.5%. Another source projects the global market at USD 281.65 million in 2024, expected to reach USD 492.01 million by 2032. North America accounted for over 90% of global consumption in 2016 and dominated the market in 2024.
- Zirconium: The global zirconium market size reached USD 2.1 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 3.6 billion by 2033, exhibiting a growth rate (CAGR) of 6.32%. Another report estimates the global zirconium market size at USD 2.08 billion in 2024, predicted to increase to approximately USD 4.41 billion by 2034. Asia Pacific exhibits clear dominance in the zirconium market.
AI Analysis | Feedback
USA Rare Earth (USAR) is poised for significant future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven primarily by the following key initiatives:
- Commissioning and Ramp-Up of Stillwater Magnet Manufacturing Facility: USA Rare Earth plans to commission its rare earth magnet manufacturing facility in Stillwater, Oklahoma, in the first quarter of 2026. The initial phase aims for a production capacity of 1,200 metric tons per annum (tpa) for neo magnets, with further expansion plans to reach 5,000 tpa in subsequent phases. This ramp-up in domestic magnet production is a core component of the company's "Mine-to-Magnet" strategy and is expected to meet growing demand across various industries, including defense, automotive, and technology.
- Acquisition and Integration of Less Common Metals (LCM): The acquisition of Less Common Metals (LCM), a UK-based manufacturer of specialized rare earth metals and alloys, is expected to close by the end of 2025. This strategic acquisition significantly enhances USA Rare Earth's vertical integration by providing in-house metal-making and strip-casting capabilities. LCM's current capacity of 1,500 metric tons of NdFeB strip cast is projected to expand to 2,000 metric tons in 2026, directly supporting the Stillwater magnet production and contributing to revenue growth.
- Development of the Round Top Project: The Round Top project in West Texas, a significant heavy rare earth deposit, is progressing with a pre-feasibility study (PFS) targeted for completion in the second half of 2026. This project is crucial for establishing a secure, domestic supply chain for rare earth elements, reducing reliance on foreign sources. Successful development and eventual mining and processing at Round Top are anticipated to be long-term revenue drivers, supplying feedstock for the company's downstream manufacturing.
- Strategic Partnerships and Expanding Customer Base: USA Rare Earth has been actively securing strategic partnerships and customer agreements. The company has signed memoranda of understanding (MoU) and joint development agreements (JDA) with various potential customers, including Enduro Pipeline Services and ePropelled, Inc., for the delivery of neo magnets. The company has indicated strong customer interest, stating it has the potential to sell out its initial 1,200-ton production line even before full commissioning. These partnerships and growing customer demand are expected to translate directly into future sales.
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Share Issuance
- Shareholders approved the issuance of up to 10,714,286 shares of common stock in July 2025, related to a warrant issued to an institutional investor in a private placement in May 2025.
- USA Rare Earth received approximately $163 million from warrant exercises since the end of Q3 2025, with an additional $123 million expected from the redemption of remaining outstanding warrants.
- In connection with the acquisition of Less Common Metals Ltd. (LCM), USA Rare Earth plans to issue 6.74 million shares of common stock, valued at approximately $100 million.
Inbound Investments
- USA Rare Earth received a $125 million common equity investment at the end of the third quarter of 2025.
- In April 2025, the company secured $75 million in equity capital through a private investment in public equity (PIPE) agreement with a new institutional investor.
- The company has raised over $100 million in total funding since the beginning of 2025 to support its operations.
Outbound Investments
- USA Rare Earth entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Less Common Metals Ltd. (LCM), a UK-based rare earth metal and alloy producer, for $100 million in cash and 6.74 million shares of USAR common stock. This acquisition is expected to close in Q4 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- USA Rare Earth plans significant capital expenditures of over $60 million in the second half of 2025 to advance its strategic initiatives.
- Approximately $100 million is being spent to bring the magnet manufacturing facilities in Stillwater, Oklahoma, into production mode for Q1 2026, with plans to expand capacity to 5,000 metric tons by 2028.
- Capital is also being allocated towards the Round Top development project, aiming for a Pre-Feasibility Study completion in the second half of 2026.
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| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.0% | 7.0% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.5% | -0.5% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 51.7% | 51.7% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 30.0% | 30.0% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.3% | 5.3% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons for USA Rare Earth
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 15.18 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.7 |
| Rev LTM | 79 |
| Op Inc LTM | -28 |
| FCF LTM | -31 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -53 |
| CFO LTM | -17 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -8 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 26.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -79.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -45.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -33.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -5.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -98.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -99.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8112025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5152025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3312025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 6302024 | 11122024 | S-4 6/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 1062025 | S-4/A 12/31/2023 |
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