Tearsheet

USA Rare Earth (USAR)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $16.53 | Market Cap: $1.7 Bil
Sector: Materials | Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining

USA Rare Earth (USAR)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $16.53
Market Cap: $1.7 Bil
Sector: Materials
Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -15%
Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Battery Technology & Metals. Themes include Rare Earth Elements.
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -28 Mil
2  Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 46947%
3  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17%
4  High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 62148%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -15%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Battery Technology & Metals. Themes include Rare Earth Elements.
2 Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -28 Mil
4 Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 46947%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17%
6 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 62148%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

USAR Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are key points highlighting why USA Rare Earth (USAR) stock moved by approximately -6% during the period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:

1. Disappointing Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Report: On November 6, 2025, USA Rare Earth announced its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, reporting a GAAP net loss of $156.68 million and a loss per diluted share of $(1.64). This significantly missed the consensus earnings per share estimate of $(0.06), leading to a 6.28% drop in the stock during after-hours trading.

2. Continued Steep Net Losses and Negative EBITDA: Throughout the third quarter of 2025, the company consistently reported substantial financial losses, including a steep net loss of approximately $156.68 million and negative Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA). This indicated ongoing challenges with profitability and cost management despite an increase in demand for rare-earth minerals.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
USAR Return0%0%0%0%0%45672%45672%
Peers Return28%15%14%-4%-3%33%108%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
USAR Win Rate0%0%0%0%0%70% 
Peers Win Rate37%28%33%32%34%65% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
USAR Max Drawdown0%0%0%0%0%0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-35%-6%-9%-13%-12%-26% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WRN, XPL, CRML, NEXM, TECK.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

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In The Past

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About USA Rare Earth (USAR)

Better Bets than USA Rare Earth (USAR)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to USAR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.4%3.4%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.0%1.0%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
29.7%29.7%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
9.9%9.9%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.2%5.2%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.4%3.4%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.0%1.0%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
29.7%29.7%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
9.9%9.9%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.2%5.2%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for USA Rare Earth

Peers to compare with:

Financials

USARWRNXPLCRMLNEXMTECKMedian
NameUSA Rare.Western .Solitari.Critical.NexMetal.Teck Res. 
Mkt Price14.022.520.608.283.8144.456.04
Mkt Cap1.40.50.1--21.71.0
Rev LTM000-010,4840
Op Inc LTM-28-8-5--461,243-8
FCF LTM-26-24-5--45-328-26
FCF 3Y Avg--22-4--40-894-31
CFO LTM-13-3-5--431,508-5
CFO 3Y Avg--4-4--312,675-4

Growth & Margins

USARWRNXPLCRMLNEXMTECKMedian
NameUSA Rare.Western .Solitari.Critical.NexMetal.Teck Res. 
Rev Chg LTM-----29.1%29.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg------12.0%-12.0%
Rev Chg Q-----18.4%18.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-----5.3%5.3%
Op Mgn LTM-----11.9%11.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-----13.2%13.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-----0.5%0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM-----14.4%14.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-----26.0%26.0%
FCF/Rev LTM------3.1%-3.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg------7.9%-7.9%

Valuation

USARWRNXPLCRMLNEXMTECKMedian
NameUSA Rare.Western .Solitari.Critical.NexMetal.Teck Res. 
Mkt Cap1.40.50.1--21.71.0
P/S-----2.02.0
P/EBIT-7.3-48.2-11.6--11.6-9.4
P/E-7.7-105.8-12.8--17.1-10.2
P/CFO-135.7-115.4-13.1--14.2-64.2
Total Yield-13.1%-0.9%-7.8%--7.0%-4.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%--1.2%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg--8.0%-8.1%---3.9%-8.0%
D/E0.00.00.0--0.40.0
Net D/E-0.1-0.1-0.1--0.2-0.1

Returns

USARWRNXPLCRMLNEXMTECKMedian
NameUSA Rare.Western .Solitari.Critical.NexMetal.Teck Res. 
1M Rtn-17.1%23.5%-4.4%-24.3%-4.5%4.1%-4.4%
3M Rtn1.9%66.9%-25.5%41.5%-30.6%32.1%17.0%
6M Rtn35.5%100.0%-10.9%471.0%-19.8%35.5%
12M Rtn46,947.0%131.2%0.1%7.3%--2.8%7.3%
3Y Rtn46,947.0%47.4%-4.7%--23.3%35.3%
1M Excs Rtn-17.1%23.6%-4.3%-24.2%-4.5%4.2%-4.4%
3M Excs Rtn-6.0%63.8%-33.8%39.2%-34.3%30.6%12.3%
6M Excs Rtn20.7%85.3%-25.6%456.3%-5.1%20.7%
12M Excs Rtn46,933.4%113.5%-15.2%8.0%--17.5%8.0%
3Y Excs Rtn46,874.2%-2.5%-65.7%---31.9%-17.2%

Financials

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity8,436,270
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-7.7%
Average Daily Volume11,496,515
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1
Basic Shares Quantity102,589,000
Short % of Basic Shares8.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025811202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025515202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024331202510-K 12/31/2024
630202411122024S-4 6/30/2024
123120231062025S-4/A 12/31/2023