Tearsheet

USA Rare Earth (USAR)


Market Price (10/31/2025): $19.91 | Market Cap: $1.8 Bil
Sector: Materials | Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining

USA Rare Earth (USAR)


Market Price (10/31/2025): $19.91
Market Cap: $1.8 Bil
Sector: Materials
Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0  Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
1   Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -14 Mil
2   Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 104%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 65940%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.7%
4   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 62148%
0 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
1 Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -14 Mil
3 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 104%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 65940%
4 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.7%
5 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 62148%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

USAR Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
USAR Return0%0%0%0%0%65940%78994%
Peers Return34%3%14%-7%-11%50%96%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%110%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
USAR Win Rate0%0%0%0%0%67% 
Peers Win Rate33%27%32%32%28%76% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%67% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
USAR Max Drawdown0%0%0%0%0%0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-32%-10%-9%-15%-17%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VALE, WRN, XPL, ALM, CRML.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/30/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

null

null


In The Past

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About USA Rare Earth (USAR)

Better Bets than USA Rare Earth (USAR)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to USAR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
AXTA_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025AXTAAxalta Coating SystemsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.8%
GPK_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025GPKGraphic PackagingDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-17.9%-17.9%-17.9%
FCX_9302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09302025FCXFreeport-McMoRanMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
6.8%6.8%-0.9%
KWR_7312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield07312025KWRQuaker HoughtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.3%10.3%0.0%
TGLS_6302025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%06302025TGLSTecnoglassQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-23.9%-23.9%-23.9%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
AXTA_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025AXTAAxalta Coating SystemsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.8%
GPK_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025GPKGraphic PackagingDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-17.9%-17.9%-17.9%
FCX_9302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09302025FCXFreeport-McMoRanMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
6.8%6.8%-0.9%
KWR_7312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield07312025KWRQuaker HoughtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.3%10.3%0.0%
TGLS_6302025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%06302025TGLSTecnoglassQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-23.9%-23.9%-23.9%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for USA Rare Earth

Financials

USARVALEWRNXPLALMCRMLMedian
NameUSA Rare.Vale Western .Solitari.Almonty .Critical. 
Mkt Price19.6811.892.100.696.7612.889.32
Mkt Cap1.850.80.40.1--1.1
Rev LTM036,6000028-0
Op Inc LTM-149,986-8-6-20--8
FCF LTM-191,957-22-5-55--19
FCF 3Y Avg-4,519-23-4-42--13
CFO LTM-118,104-5-5-20--5
CFO 3Y Avg-10,455-4-4-13--4

Growth & Margins

USARVALEWRNXPLALMCRMLMedian
NameUSA Rare.Vale Western .Solitari.Almonty .Critical. 
Rev Chg LTM--13.0%--9.9%--1.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg--7.8%--4.6%--1.6%
Rev Chg Q--11.2%---9.4%--10.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM--3.0%---2.6%--2.8%
Op Mgn LTM-27.3%---71.3%--22.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-32.4%---42.8%--5.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM--1.1%---39.7%--20.4%
CFO/Rev LTM-22.1%---69.9%--23.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-26.3%---50.4%--12.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-5.3%---193.7%--94.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-11.2%---160.1%--74.4%

Valuation

USARVALEWRNXPLALMCRMLMedian
NameUSA Rare.Vale Western .Solitari.Almonty .Critical. 
Mkt Cap1.850.80.40.1--1.1
P/S-1.4----1.4
P/EBIT-20.86.8-50.5-9.9---15.4
P/E-24.19.7-118.7-10.9---17.5
P/CFO-160.76.3-89.0-11.8---50.4
Total Yield-4.1%10.3%-0.8%-9.2%---2.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%--0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-8.9%-9.7%-7.8%---7.8%
D/E0.00.40.00.0--0.0
Net D/E-0.10.3-0.1-0.2---0.1

Returns

USARVALEWRNXPLALMCRMLMedian
NameUSA Rare.Vale Western .Solitari.Almonty .Critical. 
1M Rtn14.5%9.5%6.6%-0.7%12.1%107.1%10.8%
3M Rtn54.8%29.0%70.7%0.4%83.2%241.6%62.8%
6M Rtn103.7%33.1%90.9%12.0%-731.0%90.9%
12M Rtn65,940.3%19.3%94.4%2.1%-99.1%94.4%
3Y Rtn65,940.3%17.5%59.1%28.3%--43.7%
1M Excs Rtn5.2%6.6%4.4%-0.3%11.0%80.0%5.9%
3M Excs Rtn31.8%17.2%65.6%-8.2%70.4%228.7%48.7%
6M Excs Rtn82.0%11.3%69.2%-9.8%-709.2%69.2%
12M Excs Rtn65,923.1%-0.0%65.5%-16.5%-89.6%65.5%
3Y Excs Rtn65,863.5%-64.6%-17.7%-48.5%---33.1%

Financials

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity10,608,474
Short Interest: % Change Since 930202551.5%
Average Daily Volume30,125,737
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1
Basic Shares Quantity92,769,000
Short % of Basic Shares11.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/11/202523.3%1.7%-10.2%
5/14/20256.4%3.6%48.9%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive221
# Negative001
Median Positive14.9%2.6%48.9%
Median Negative  -10.2%
Max Positive23.3%3.6%48.9%
Max Negative  -10.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025811202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025515202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024331202510-K 12/31/2024
630202411122024S-4 6/30/2024
123120231062025S-4/A 12/31/2023

Insider Activity

Expand for More