USA Rare Earth (USAR)
Market Price (10/31/2025): $19.91 | Market Cap: $1.8 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining
USA Rare Earth (USAR)
Market Price (10/31/2025): $19.91Market Cap: $1.8 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Diversified Metals & Mining
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 | |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -14 Mil | ||
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 104%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 65940% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.7% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 62148% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -14 Mil |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 104%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 65940% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.7% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 62148% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
USAR Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| USAR Return | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 65940% | 78994% |
| Peers Return | 34% | 3% | 14% | -7% | -11% | 50% | 96% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 110% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| USAR Win Rate | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 33% | 27% | 32% | 32% | 28% | 76% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| USAR Max Drawdown | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -32% | -10% | -9% | -15% | -17% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VALE, WRN, XPL, ALM, CRML.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/30/2025 (YTD)
In The Past
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to USAR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09302025 | AXTA | Axalta Coating Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.8% |
| 09302025 | GPK | Graphic Packaging | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -17.9% | -17.9% | -17.9% |
| 09302025 | FCX | Freeport-McMoRan | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.8% | 6.8% | -0.9% |
| 07312025 | KWR | Quaker Houghton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.3% | 10.3% | 0.0% |
| 06302025 | TGLS | Tecnoglass | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -23.9% | -23.9% | -23.9% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09302025 | AXTA | Axalta Coating Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.8% |
| 09302025 | GPK | Graphic Packaging | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -17.9% | -17.9% | -17.9% |
| 09302025 | FCX | Freeport-McMoRan | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.8% | 6.8% | -0.9% |
| 07312025 | KWR | Quaker Houghton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.3% | 10.3% | 0.0% |
| 06302025 | TGLS | Tecnoglass | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -23.9% | -23.9% | -23.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for USA Rare Earth
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 9.32 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.1 |
| Rev LTM | 0 |
| Op Inc LTM | -8 |
| FCF LTM | -19 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -13 |
| CFO LTM | -5 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -4 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -1.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | -10.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -2.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -22.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -5.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -20.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -23.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -12.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -94.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -74.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.1 |
| P/S | 1.4 |
| P/EBIT | -15.4 |
| P/E | -17.5 |
| P/CFO | -50.4 |
| Total Yield | -2.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -7.8% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 10.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 62.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 90.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 94.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 43.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 48.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 69.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 65.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -33.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8112025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5152025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3312025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 6302024 | 11122024 | S-4 6/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 1062025 | S-4/A 12/31/2023 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |