Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.0%, FCF Yield is 8.6%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -1.0%, Dist 3Y High is -1.0%
 
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%
  
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Solar Energy Generation, and Wind Energy Development.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.0%, FCF Yield is 8.6%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Solar Energy Generation, and Wind Energy Development.
3 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -1.0%, Dist 3Y High is -1.0%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

HBM Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Hudbay Minerals (HBM) experienced a significant stock movement of approximately 45% between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, driven by several key factors: 1. Strong Second Quarter 2025 Financial Performance and Strategic Partnership. Hudbay reported robust second-quarter 2025 results, demonstrating substantial free cash flow generation and industry-leading cost margins, coupled with diversified exposure to copper and gold. A pivotal announcement included a $600 million joint venture agreement with Mitsubishi for a 30% stake in the Copper World project, which significantly de-risked the project and reduced the company's future funding requirements. This news, released on August 13, 2025, likely set a positive trajectory for the stock entering the specified period.

2. Favorable Analyst Upgrades and Price Target Increases. During this period, Hudbay Minerals received positive attention from analysts. Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a "Buy" rating and a C$19.30 price target on September 8, 2025. Shortly after, on September 10, 2025, RBC Capital Markets upgraded its price target from C$19 to C$20, maintaining an "outperform" rating. Later, on October 17, 2025, Jefferies Financial Group further increased its target price from C$25.00 to C$28.00. These successive positive revisions from prominent financial institutions bolstered investor confidence and contributed to the stock's appreciation.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
HBM Return70%4%-30%9%47%103%303%
Peers Return68%48%-14%17%14%84%422%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
HBM Win Rate67%58%25%50%50%70% 
Peers Win Rate55%48%43%48%47%68% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
HBM Max Drawdown-67%-24%-56%-19%-8%-25% 
Peers Max Drawdown-58%-10%-45%-15%-12%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SCCO, FCX, ERO, TGB, HBM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventHBMS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-65.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven190.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven670 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-67.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven205.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven147 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-70.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven233.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1722 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-46.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven86.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven43 days1480 days

Compare to SCCO, FCX, ERO, TGB, HBM


In The Past

Hudbay Minerals's stock fell -65.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/11/2021. A -65.6% loss requires a 190.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About Hudbay Minerals (HBM)

Better Bets than Hudbay Minerals (HBM)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to HBM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Hudbay Minerals

Peers to compare with:

Financials

HBMSCCOFCXEROTGBMedian
NameHudbay M.Southern.Freeport.Ero Copp.Taseko M. 
Mkt Price17.39138.5944.5325.215.2525.21
Mkt Cap6.9114.064.02.61.76.9
Rev LTM2,20212,33526,0025885792,202
Op Inc LTM5926,1996,93417846592
FCF LTM3603,4801,6254376360
FCF 3Y Avg2553,0351,419-16149255
CFO LTM7734,6186,353327220773
CFO 3Y Avg5964,1126,142203159596

Growth & Margins

HBMSCCOFCXEROTGBMedian
NameHudbay M.Southern.Freeport.Ero Copp.Taseko M. 
Rev Chg LTM8.3%12.7%1.4%26.7%-0.6%8.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg16.2%7.1%4.1%10.5%11.5%10.5%
Rev Chg Q26.1%15.2%2.7%41.9%-15.7%15.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM5.3%3.8%0.7%9.7%-3.6%3.8%
Op Mgn LTM26.9%50.3%26.7%30.3%7.9%26.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg18.2%47.3%27.3%24.8%14.5%24.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM3.7%0.8%-0.1%-2.3%-3.3%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM35.1%37.4%24.4%55.6%38.1%37.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg31.8%36.6%24.7%39.7%29.0%31.8%
FCF/Rev LTM16.4%28.2%6.2%7.2%13.1%13.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg12.5%27.0%5.6%-37.1%7.9%7.9%

Valuation

HBMSCCOFCXEROTGBMedian
NameHudbay M.Southern.Freeport.Ero Copp.Taseko M. 
Mkt Cap6.9114.064.02.61.76.9
P/S1.98.12.23.61.72.2
P/EBIT6.915.77.911.537.611.5
P/E14.526.127.215.2-35.415.2
P/CFO5.421.68.96.44.56.4
Total Yield7.0%6.1%5.2%6.6%-2.8%6.1%
Dividend Yield0.1%2.3%1.5%0.0%0.0%0.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg7.6%3.8%2.3%-8.7%5.0%3.8%
D/E0.30.10.20.30.80.3
Net D/E0.10.00.10.30.70.1

Returns

HBMSCCOFCXEROTGBMedian
NameHudbay M.Southern.Freeport.Ero Copp.Taseko M. 
1M Rtn9.9%0.9%8.1%22.3%17.2%9.9%
3M Rtn39.7%38.2%-3.3%69.7%54.4%39.7%
6M Rtn85.7%50.0%9.7%58.6%112.6%58.6%
12M Rtn95.3%40.9%3.1%64.7%156.1%64.7%
3Y Rtn199.3%150.7%15.2%92.3%262.1%150.7%
1M Excs Rtn9.9%0.9%8.2%22.4%17.2%9.9%
3M Excs Rtn34.9%33.0%-8.3%66.4%50.9%34.9%
6M Excs Rtn71.0%35.3%-5.0%43.8%97.8%43.8%
12M Excs Rtn81.3%28.7%-11.3%52.1%141.3%52.1%
3Y Excs Rtn155.1%96.8%-44.8%47.6%243.9%96.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Copper1,066838873564786
Gold463325247181120
Molybdenum7955372631
Zinc77223301264285
Amortization of deferred revenue - gold4036382832
Silver3625272629
Amortization of deferred revenue - silver3336343960
Pricing and volume adjustments6-14-99-12
Amortization of deferred revenue - variable consideration adjustments - prior periods5127-16
Other05765
Treatment and refining charges-114-69-55-57-83
Total1,6901,4611,5021,0921,237


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,909,612
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120259.2%
Average Daily Volume6,752,976
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1
Basic Shares Quantity395,085,907
Short % of Basic Shares1.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
331202551320256-K 3/31/2025
12312024327202540-F 12/31/2024
9302024111420246-K 9/30/2024
630202481320246-K 6/30/2024
331202451420246-K 3/31/2024
12312023328202440-F 12/31/2023
9302023110920236-K 9/30/2023
630202380920236-K 6/30/2023
331202350920236-K 3/31/2023
12312022331202340-F 12/31/2022
9302022110320226-K 9/30/2022
630202280920226-K 6/30/2022
331202251020226-K 3/31/2022
12312021329202240-F 12/31/2021
9302021110420216-K 9/30/2021
630202181020216-K 6/30/2021