Hudbay Minerals (HBM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $17.44 | Market Cap: $6.9 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Copper
Hudbay Minerals (HBM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $17.44Market Cap: $6.9 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Copper
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.0%, FCF Yield is 8.6% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.0%, Dist 3Y High is -1.0% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Solar Energy Generation, and Wind Energy Development. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.0%, FCF Yield is 8.6% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Solar Energy Generation, and Wind Energy Development. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.0%, Dist 3Y High is -1.0% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
HBM Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Hudbay Minerals (HBM) experienced a significant stock movement of approximately 45% between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, driven by several key factors:
1. Strong Second Quarter 2025 Financial Performance and Strategic Partnership.
Hudbay reported robust second-quarter 2025 results, demonstrating substantial free cash flow generation and industry-leading cost margins, coupled with diversified exposure to copper and gold. A pivotal announcement included a $600 million joint venture agreement with Mitsubishi for a 30% stake in the Copper World project, which significantly de-risked the project and reduced the company's future funding requirements. This news, released on August 13, 2025, likely set a positive trajectory for the stock entering the specified period.
2. Favorable Analyst Upgrades and Price Target Increases.
During this period, Hudbay Minerals received positive attention from analysts. Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a "Buy" rating and a C$19.30 price target on September 8, 2025. Shortly after, on September 10, 2025, RBC Capital Markets upgraded its price target from C$19 to C$20, maintaining an "outperform" rating. Later, on October 17, 2025, Jefferies Financial Group further increased its target price from C$25.00 to C$28.00. These successive positive revisions from prominent financial institutions bolstered investor confidence and contributed to the stock's appreciation.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HBM Return | 70% | 4% | -30% | 9% | 47% | 103% | 303% |
| Peers Return | 68% | 48% | -14% | 17% | 14% | 84% | 422% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HBM Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 25% | 50% | 50% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 48% | 43% | 48% | 47% | 68% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HBM Max Drawdown | -67% | -24% | -56% | -19% | -8% | -25% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -58% | -10% | -45% | -15% | -12% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SCCO, FCX, ERO, TGB, HBM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HBM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -65.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 190.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 670 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -67.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 205.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 147 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -70.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 233.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1722 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -46.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 43 days | 1480 days |
Compare to SCCO, FCX, ERO, TGB, HBM
In The Past
Hudbay Minerals's stock fell -65.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/11/2021. A -65.6% loss requires a 190.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to HBM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Hudbay Minerals
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 25.21 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.9 |
| Rev LTM | 2,202 |
| Op Inc LTM | 592 |
| FCF LTM | 360 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 255 |
| CFO LTM | 773 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 596 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 26.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 24.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 37.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 31.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.9 |
| P/S | 2.2 |
| P/EBIT | 11.5 |
| P/E | 15.2 |
| P/CFO | 6.4 |
| Total Yield | 6.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 9.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 39.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 58.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 64.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 150.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 9.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 34.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 43.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 52.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 96.8% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper | 1,066 | 838 | 873 | 564 | 786 |
| Gold | 463 | 325 | 247 | 181 | 120 |
| Molybdenum | 79 | 55 | 37 | 26 | 31 |
| Zinc | 77 | 223 | 301 | 264 | 285 |
| Amortization of deferred revenue - gold | 40 | 36 | 38 | 28 | 32 |
| Silver | 36 | 25 | 27 | 26 | 29 |
| Amortization of deferred revenue - silver | 33 | 36 | 34 | 39 | 60 |
| Pricing and volume adjustments | 6 | -14 | -9 | 9 | -12 |
| Amortization of deferred revenue - variable consideration adjustments - prior periods | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -16 |
| Other | 0 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 5 |
| Treatment and refining charges | -114 | -69 | -55 | -57 | -83 |
| Total | 1,690 | 1,461 | 1,502 | 1,092 | 1,237 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 3312025 | 5132025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3272025 | 40-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11142024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8132024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5142024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3282024 | 40-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3312023 | 40-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3292022 | 40-F 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11042021 | 6-K 9/30/2021 |
| 6302021 | 8102021 | 6-K 6/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
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