Collective Mining (CNL)
Market Price (12/29/2025): $15.4 | Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Gold
Collective Mining (CNL)
Market Price (12/29/2025): $15.4Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Gold
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Battery Technology & Metals, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Advanced Battery Components, and Battery Storage & Grid Modernization. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 14.85 | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -34 Mil | |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 277% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.6% | ||
| Key risksCNL key risks include [1] the speculative success of its exploration activities as a pre-revenue company and [2] operational and political uncertainties related to its jurisdiction in Colombia. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Battery Technology & Metals, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Advanced Battery Components, and Battery Storage & Grid Modernization. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 14.85 |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -34 Mil |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 277% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.6% |
| Key risksCNL key risks include [1] the speculative success of its exploration activities as a pre-revenue company and [2] operational and political uncertainties related to its jurisdiction in Colombia. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Collective Mining's stock reached new 52-week highs.
By December 22, 2025, the stock hit a 52-week high of $15.28 and C$20.96. This achievement followed a substantial 238.59% increase over the past year and an impressive 235.34% gain year-to-date.
2. Significant discoveries and expansions at the Apollo project drove investor interest.
The company announced the expansion of its Apollo system with the discovery of a new mineralized area, the Hanging Wall Vein Zone, yielding notable intercepts. Additionally, Collective Mining extended the high-grade Ramp Zone with new drill holes, including a particularly rich intercept of 24.80 meters at 29.42 g/t gold within 63.90 meters at 13.46 g/t gold. In September 2025, the company also reported the discovery of a new silver-rich deposit at its X target in Colombia.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 9.0% change in CNL stock from 9/28/2025 to 12/28/2025 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| 9282025 | 12282025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 14.17 | 15.45 | 9.03% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0.00 | 0.00 | � |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | � |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 78.71 | 84.85 | -7.80% |
| Cumulative Contribution | � |
Market Drivers
9/28/2025 to 12/28/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CNL | 9.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.3% | 29.0% |
| Sector (XLB) | 3.8% | 31.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 47.1% change in CNL stock from 6/29/2025 to 12/28/2025 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| 6292025 | 12282025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 10.50 | 15.45 | 47.14% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0.00 | 0.00 | � |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | � |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 78.71 | 84.85 | -7.81% |
| Cumulative Contribution | � |
Market Drivers
6/29/2025 to 12/28/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CNL | 47.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.6% | 22.1% |
| Sector (XLB) | 5.4% | 19.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 276.8% change in CNL stock from 12/28/2024 to 12/28/2025 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| 12282024 | 12282025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.10 | 15.45 | 276.83% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0.00 | 0.00 | � |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | � |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 68.27 | 84.85 | -24.29% |
| Cumulative Contribution | � |
Market Drivers
12/28/2024 to 12/28/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CNL | 276.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.0% | 9.9% |
| Sector (XLB) | 10.2% | 15.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 705.7% change in CNL stock from 12/29/2022 to 12/28/2025 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| 12292022 | 12282025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.92 | 15.45 | 705.74% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0.00 | 0.00 | � |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | � |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 47.68 | 84.85 | -77.96% |
| Cumulative Contribution | � |
Market Drivers
12/29/2023 to 12/28/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CNL | 381.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 48.4% | 13.6% |
| Sector (XLB) | 11.4% | 17.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CNL Return | - | -30% | -13% | 67% | 30% | 266% | 384% |
| Peers Return | 16% | 38% | -12% | 21% | 26% | 16% | 150% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 18% | 114% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CNL Win Rate | - | 17% | 42% | 42% | 58% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 65% | 42% | 68% | 57% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CNL Max Drawdown | - | -40% | -32% | 0% | -30% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -34% | -5% | -26% | -7% | -9% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HPQ, HPE, IBM, CSCO, AAPL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/26/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CNL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -52.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 110.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 93 days | 464 days |
Compare to HPQ, HPE, IBM, CSCO, AAPL
In The Past
Collective Mining's stock fell -52.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/14/2021. A -52.5% loss requires a 110.7% gain to breakeven.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
The Barrick Gold or Newmont of tomorrow, specializing in discovering and developing high-grade gold-silver-copper deposits.
An early-stage Freeport-McMoRan, aiming to become a major producer of copper, gold, and silver.
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- Gold: A precious metal, mined and sold as a commodity for use in jewelry, investment, and various industrial applications.
- Silver: A precious metal, mined and sold as a commodity with significant industrial applications beyond jewelry and investment.
- Copper: A base metal, mined and sold as a commodity primarily valued for its excellent electrical and thermal conductivity in numerous industries.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Collective Mining (symbol: CNL) is a mineral exploration and development company primarily focused on gold projects in Colombia. As a company involved in the upstream segment of the mining industry, it extracts and produces raw materials (gold doré or concentrate) rather than finished products for end consumers.
Therefore, Collective Mining sells primarily to **other companies**, not individuals. Their major customers would typically be:
- Large precious metals refiners
- Bullion dealers and traders
- Commodity trading houses
Due to the nature of commodity sales and commercial confidentiality, publicly traded mining companies like Collective Mining generally **do not disclose the specific names of their major customers** in their public filings. Their output is typically sold on global commodity markets or through confidential supply agreements to the aforementioned types of companies, often without a single dominant buyer being publicly identified unless a very significant portion of their revenue comes from one specific entity, which is rare for standard commodity sales. Therefore, specific names and symbols of customer companies cannot be provided.
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Ned Jalil, Chief Executive Officer
Mr. Jalil is a seasoned mining executive with over 25 years of global experience across gold, silver, copper, and nickel, having successfully led projects from exploration through to feasibility, construction, and production. He held senior executive roles with Kinross Gold, where he was Chief Technical Officer and instrumental in advancing key assets like the Great Bear and Manh Choh projects. At Appian Capital, he led the construction and operational readiness of the MVV Copper-Gold Project, completing it ahead of schedule and under budget. Mr. Jalil holds an MBA from the Kellogg-Schulich Executive MBA Program and both Bachelor's and Master's degrees in Mining Engineering from Queen's University.
Paul P. Begin, CFO & Corporate Secretary
Mr. Begin was previously a Director of Continental Gold until its acquisition in March 2020. He also served as Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President of Guyana Goldfields from 2010 to 2018, and Chief Financial Officer of Guyana Precious Metals from 2012 to 2018. Mr. Begin obtained a Bachelor of Commerce degree from Queen's University and his Chartered Accountant designation in 1975.
Ari Sussman, Executive Chairman
Mr. Sussman is the founder of Collective Mining and previously served as the Founder, Chief Executive Officer, and Director of Continental Gold Inc. from 2010 to March 2020. Under his leadership, Continental Gold raised nearly $1 billion and discovered over 11 million ounces of high-grade gold and silver at the Buriticá project in Colombia. Continental Gold was sold to Zijin Mining for approximately C$2 billion in early 2020. Mr. Sussman then reassembled much of his former team to create Collective Mining. He also founded and led Colossus Minerals from 2006-2012.
Omar Ossma, President
Mr. Ossma continues in his role as President, managing the company's day-to-day operations. As a native Colombian and lawyer, he has a strong background in navigating Colombia's complex regulatory environment and establishing relationships with local communities.
Carlos David RÃos, Vice President of Exploration
Mr. RÃos has over 15 years of experience in the Exploration and Mining Industry in Colombia and the LATAM region. Before joining Collective Mining, he was the Exploration Manager at Touchstone Gold in Colombia and Zijin – Continental Gold, and the Geology Manager of Cemex LATAM Holdings. He also worked as a Specialist Modelling and Resources Estimation Specialist in Cerro Matoso. Mr. RÃos holds a degree in Geological Engineering from the National University of Colombia and a postgraduate degree in geostatistical estimation of mineral deposits from the University of Alberta in Canada.
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Key Risks to Collective Mining (CNL)
- Exploration and Development Risk: As an exploration-stage company, Collective Mining's business is inherently speculative and its success hinges on the outcomes of its exploration activities. The company has not yet generated revenue from mining operations. Risks include potential drilling disappointments, delays in exploration and development, variations in mineralization or recovery rates, and the ability to define economically viable resources. Any setbacks in these areas could significantly impact investor sentiment and the company's valuation.
- Operational and Political Risks in Colombia: Operating in Colombia exposes Collective Mining to various geopolitical and operational risks. These encompass challenges in navigating the regulatory framework, obtaining necessary permits, and engaging with local communities. Additionally, changes in national and local government policies, legislation, taxation, controls, regulations, or broader political and economic developments in Colombia could adversely affect the company's operations.
- Commodity Price Fluctuations: The future profitability of Collective Mining's potential projects is directly tied to the volatile prices of gold, silver, and copper. Fluctuations in these global commodity markets could impact the economic viability of discoveries and the company's overall financial performance.
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The evolving political and regulatory landscape in Colombia, where Collective Mining holds its primary assets, presents a clear emerging threat. The current presidential administration, which took office in August 2022, has publicly signaled a pivot towards increased environmental protection and a reduction in reliance on extractive industries. This shift has manifested in discussions and proposals for higher royalties on mining, more stringent environmental permitting processes, and enhanced community consultation requirements. For Collective Mining, this emerging environment could lead to increased operational costs, delays in project approvals, greater difficulty in obtaining social license to operate, and potential restrictions on future exploration and development activities, thereby fundamentally altering the economic viability and operational framework for mining projects in the country.
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Collective Mining (symbol: CNL) is an exploration company primarily focused on identifying and delineating resources of gold, silver, and copper in Colombia. While tungsten is also mentioned as one of their target minerals, specific addressable market sizes for tungsten were not readily available in the provided information.
Addressable Markets:
-
Gold:
The global gold mining market size was estimated at USD 260.86 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 710.08 billion by 2033, exhibiting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 11.0% from 2025 to 2033. Other estimates place the global gold mining market size at USD 267.87 billion in 2024, projected to grow to approximately USD 402.34 billion by 2034 with a CAGR of roughly 3.9% between 2025 and 2034. The global gold mining market is also projected to exceed USD 250 billion in 2025.
In Colombia, gold is a major mining resource, with approximately 70 tons exported in 2023 for an estimated value of around USD 3 billion. Colombia's gold production was reported at 60,000.000 kg in December 2024.
-
Silver:
The global silver mining market size was estimated at USD 23.83 billion in 2024. It is projected to grow from USD 25.95 billion in 2025 to USD 60.76 billion by 2035, exhibiting a CAGR of 8.88% during the forecast period 2025-2035. Another estimate valued the global silver market at USD 21.21 billion in 2024, anticipating it to reach USD 21.91 billion in 2025 and USD 28.43 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 3.31%. The global silver market was also estimated to be USD 7 billion in 2023, with forecasts suggesting it could grow to over USD 11 billion by 2028.
Colombia's silver production was reported at 45.000 metric tons in December 2023. In 2023, Colombia exported a total of USD 7.24 million in silver.
-
Copper:
The global copper mining market generated a revenue of USD 178,609.3 million in 2022 and is expected to reach USD 219,126.7 million by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 2.6% from 2023 to 2030. Other sources estimate the global copper mining market will exceed USD 110 billion in 2025. The copper mining market has also been reported to have grown from USD 9.64 billion in 2024 to USD 10.16 billion in 2025, with a projected expansion at a CAGR of 5.52% to reach USD 14.83 billion by 2032. Yet another estimate valued the Copper Mining Market at USD 77.41 billion in 2024, with total revenue expected to grow to nearly USD 82.57 billion by 2032.
Colombia produced approximately 6,900 tons of copper in 2022 and possesses estimated reserves of between 7.7 and 9.7 million tons of copper. Colombia expects its copper output to jump more than tenfold to 100,000 tons per year by 2025.
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Tungsten:
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Collective Mining (CNL) over the next 2-3 years:- Advancement and Expansion of the Apollo System at the Guayabales Project: Collective Mining's flagship Guayabales Project, particularly the Apollo system, is a primary focus for future growth. The company is actively engaged in aggressive drilling programs, including a planned 60,000-meter program for 2025, aimed at expanding the high-grade gold, silver, copper, and tungsten discoveries within the Apollo system. These efforts are designed to enlarge the mineralized envelope, including the high-grade Ramp Zone, and define new high-grade zones, which are critical steps toward establishing a future revenue-generating mine.
- Exploration and Development of the San Antonio Project: Following significant attention on Guayabales, Collective Mining has recommenced drilling at its San Antonio Project. The company plans to drill a minimum of 2,500 meters in 2025 to test large gold-copper porphyry targets and expand upon newly discovered porphyry systems. Success in these exploration activities will contribute to increasing the overall resource base, paving the way for potential future mineral extraction and revenue generation.
- Definition and Increase of Mineable Resources: The ongoing and planned extensive drilling campaigns at both the Guayabales and San Antonio projects are crucial for enhancing the grade and confidence in resource estimations. These efforts aim to significantly increase the estimated mineable resources of gold, silver, copper, and tungsten. A larger and more well-defined resource base is fundamental for attracting investment, progressing to feasibility studies, and ultimately developing the projects into producing mines, which would then generate revenue.
- Exploration and Delineation of New High-Grade Zones: Beyond expanding known systems, Collective Mining's 2025 drilling program also includes testing promising new targets such as X and Tower at Guayabales, and conducting reconnaissance drilling at San Antonio. Successful identification and delineation of additional high-grade zones across its land package would significantly add to the company's potential future mineral output and diversify its revenue streams once production commences.
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Share Issuance
- In October 2025, Collective Mining closed an upsized bought deal public offering and concurrent private placement, raising approximately C$140 million.
- In October 2024, the company completed a combined public and private financing, generating gross proceeds of C$46.35 million.
- In March 2024, Collective Mining completed a non-brokered private placement for C$18.9 million.
Inbound Investments
- Agnico Eagle Mines Limited significantly increased its ownership to approximately 14.99% by March 2025, through an investment totaling C$63.4 million that included a share subscription and the early exercise of warrants.
- This March 2025 investment by Agnico Eagle followed an initial strategic investment of C$18.9 million made in February 2024 by a single purchaser, later identified as Agnico Eagle.
- Agnico Eagle also participated in a concurrent private placement in October 2025, purchasing shares for approximately C$15 million.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for the last 12 months leading up to late 2025 were -$8.03 million.
- Collective Mining planned an expanded 70,000-meter drilling program for 2025, involving up to ten diamond drill rigs across its Guayabales and San Antonio projects, supported by a treasury of over US$78 million (March 2025) and US$145 million (October 2025).
- For the full year 2024, exploration and evaluation expenses were $18.1 million, focused on expanding the Apollo system and pursuing new discoveries at the Guayabales Project.
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to CNL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.6% | 7.6% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.4% | -1.4% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 51.0% | 51.0% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 30.6% | 30.6% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Collective Mining
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 51.32 |
| Mkt Cap | 158.8 |
| Rev LTM | 56,496 |
| Op Inc LTM | 7,584 |
| FCF LTM | 7,327 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 7,366 |
| CFO LTM | 8,590 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 8,697 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 20.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.6% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $15.45 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/14/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $11.72 | $10.34 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | 31.8% | 49.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 60.7% | 61.6% |
| Downside Capture | 166.90 | -39.23 |
| Upside Capture | 175.32 | 99.30 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 30.1% | 10.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.57 | 1.57 | 1.28 | 1.17 | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| Up Beta | 2.33 | 1.96 | 1.63 | 0.68 | 0.47 | 0.26 |
| Down Beta | 6.92 | 0.59 | 1.01 | 0.76 | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| Up Capture | 357% | 77% | 70% | 129% | 86% | 75% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 26 | 39 | 74 | 142 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 24 | 35 | 64 | 136 | 301 |
| Down Capture | 326% | 240% | 170% | 162% | -51% | 44% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 24 | 52 | 107 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 18 | 28 | 61 | 109 | 310 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
nullBased On 5-Year Data
nullBased On 10-Year Data
nullSEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11132025 | 6-K/A 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8132025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5142025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3262025 | 40-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11142024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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