CF Industries (CF)
Market Price (6/7/2026): $113.99 | Market Cap: $17.6 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals
CF Industries (CF)
Market Price (6/7/2026): $113.99Market Cap: $17.6 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.6%, FCF Yield is 9.2% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, CFO LTM is 2.7 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 3.5 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Hydrogen Economy, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Food Security & Sustainable Agriculture. Themes include Green Hydrogen Production, Show more. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.5% Key risksCF key risks include [1] a competitive disadvantage against state-owned and government-subsidized global producers with lower-cost inputs and [2] the imposition of costly new environmental regulations and carbon border taxes. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.6%, FCF Yield is 9.2% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, CFO LTM is 2.7 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 3.5 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Hydrogen Economy, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Food Security & Sustainable Agriculture. Themes include Green Hydrogen Production, Show more. |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.5% |
| Key risksCF key risks include [1] a competitive disadvantage against state-owned and government-subsidized global producers with lower-cost inputs and [2] the imposition of costly new environmental regulations and carbon border taxes. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
CF Industries (CF) stock has gained about 15% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. CF Industries reported stronger-than-expected financial results for the first quarter of 2026, significantly beating analyst estimates. The company's net earnings for Q1 2026 rose to $615 million, compared to $312 million in Q1 2025. Earnings per share (EPS) reached $3.98, surpassing the forecasted $2.50 by 59.2%, while revenue hit $1.99 billion, exceeding projections of $1.8 billion by 10.56%. Adjusted EBITDA also saw a substantial increase to $983 million from $644 million in the prior year period.
2. Geopolitical disruptions and a tightening global nitrogen market led to increased fertilizer prices and a favorable supply-demand balance. The conflict with Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz curtailed an estimated 50-60% of ammonia and urea capacity in the Middle East during March 2026. This supply shock contributed to a tight global nitrogen market and resulted in a 28% increase in CF Industries' average selling prices for nitrogen products to $424 per ton.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 14.5% change in CF stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 15.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 99.14 | 113.49 | 14.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 7,084 | 7,407 | 4.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.5% | 23.7% | 15.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.6 | 10.0 | -6.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 156 | 154 | 1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 14.5% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CF | 14.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.8% | -54.4% |
| Sector (XLB) | -4.8% | -25.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 45.6% change in CF stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 15.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 77.96 | 113.49 | 45.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,736 | 7,407 | 10.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.5% | 23.7% | 15.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.1 | 10.0 | 9.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 161 | 154 | 4.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 45.6% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CF | 45.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.5% | -40.0% |
| Sector (XLB) | 14.4% | -2.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 27.8% change in CF stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 20.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 88.80 | 113.49 | 27.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,129 | 7,407 | 20.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.8% | 23.7% | 8.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.2 | 10.0 | -11.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 169 | 154 | 9.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 27.8% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CF | 27.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 26.6% | -24.9% |
| Sector (XLB) | 19.6% | 4.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 97.6% change in CF stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 167.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 57.43 | 113.49 | 97.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 10,330 | 7,407 | -28.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 29.3% | 23.7% | -18.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 3.7 | 10.0 | 167.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 196 | 154 | 27.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 97.6% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CF | 97.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 83.4% | 8.1% |
| Sector (XLB) | 43.2% | 24.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CF Return | 87% | 22% | -5% | 10% | -7% | 53% | 242% |
| Peers Return | 153% | 11% | -22% | -21% | 19% | 20% | 145% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CF Win Rate | 75% | 58% | 42% | 58% | 50% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 75% | 44% | 44% | 42% | 56% | 67% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CF Max Drawdown | -22% | -28% | -33% | -19% | -29% | -18% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -46% | -42% | -29% | -32% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: NTR, MOS, LXU. See CF Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/5/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -18.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -29.9% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.7% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -46.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 251 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -27.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 864 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -56.0% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 127.2% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1915 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -44.1% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.0% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 861 days | 15 days |
In The Past
CF Industries's stock fell -18.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 22.4% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | CF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -29.9% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.7% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -46.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 251 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -27.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 864 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -56.0% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 127.2% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1915 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -44.1% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.0% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 861 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -24.3% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.1% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 23 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -30.9% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.8% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 58 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -66.1% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 194.8% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 691 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
CF Industries's stock fell -18.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 22.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About CF Industries (CF)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for CF Industries:
- John Deere for fertilizer
- Dow Chemical for nitrogen fertilizers
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Anhydrous Ammonia: A primary nitrogen product used as a fertilizer and in various industrial processes.
- Granular Urea: A solid, high-nitrogen fertilizer widely used in agriculture.
- Urea Ammonium Nitrate (UAN): A liquid solution fertilizer providing nitrogen to crops.
- Ammonium Nitrate: A nitrogen-rich compound used as a fertilizer and in industrial applications.
- Compound Fertilizer Products: Fertilizers containing a blend of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium (NPK) to meet diverse crop nutritional needs.
AI Analysis | Feedback
CF Industries (symbol: CF) primarily sells its hydrogen and nitrogen products to other companies, rather than directly to individuals. Based on the provided company description, its major customers are:
- Cooperatives
- Independent fertilizer distributors
- Traders
- Wholesalers
- Industrial users
The company description does not provide specific names for these customer companies, nor their public symbols.
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Christopher D. Bohn, President and Chief Executive Officer
Chris Bohn became President and Chief Executive Officer of CF Industries on January 5, 2026. He joined CF Industries in September 2009 as director of corporate planning and analysis. He held various roles including vice president of corporate planning (2010-2014), vice president of supply chain (2014-2015), senior vice president of manufacturing and distribution (2015-2019), and executive vice president and chief financial officer (2019-2024). Most recently, he served as Chief Operating Officer in 2024. Prior to joining CF Industries, Mr. Bohn was Chief Financial Officer for Hess Print Solutions and Vice President Global Financial Planning & Analysis for Merisant Worldwide, Inc. He also held financial analysis and strategy positions with Searle Pharmaceuticals and 3M Corporation. He holds a B.S. degree in Finance from Indiana University and an M.B.A. from Northwestern University's Kellogg Graduate School of Management.
Richard A. Hoker, Interim Chief Financial Officer
Richard Hoker was appointed Interim Chief Financial Officer of CF Industries effective February 15, 2026. He joined CF Industries in November 2007 and has served as the company's vice president and corporate controller and chief accounting officer. Before joining CF Industries, Mr. Hoker was vice president and controller and principal accounting officer for Sara Lee Corporation. Earlier in his career, he held various positions at Coopers & Lybrand LLP (now PricewaterhouseCoopers). He is a Certified Public Accountant and holds a B.S. degree in accounting from DePaul University and an M.B.A. in Finance and Accounting from the University of Chicago.
Bert A. Frost, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer
Bert Frost is the executive vice president and chief commercial officer at CF Industries, a role he has held since joining the company in November 2008. Prior to CF Industries, he was with Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM), serving as managing director, international fertilizer and inputs, based in Switzerland. Earlier, he was director of the fertilizer, logistics, and ports divisions for ADM in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Mr. Frost holds a B.S. degree in business from Kansas State University and is a graduate of the Harvard Business School, Advanced Management Program.
Sue Menzel, Executive Vice President and Chief Administrative Officer
Sue Menzel was named executive vice president and chief administrative officer in July 2023, overseeing human resources, information technology, and legal functions. She joined CF Industries in October 2017 as senior vice president, human resources. Before joining CF Industries, Ms. Menzel served as executive vice president, human resources for CNO Financial Group. Prior to CNO, she was senior vice president, human resources for APAC Customer Services, Inc., and held roles of increasing responsibility at Sears, Roebuck & Company and Montgomery Ward, Inc.
Ashraf Malik, Senior Vice President, Manufacturing and Distribution
Ashraf Malik assumed the role of senior vice president, manufacturing and distribution, in September 2019. In this role, he is accountable for the company's manufacturing, corporate engineering, environmental health and safety, and distribution facilities. Previously, he served as vice president, site operations, since 2012. Mr. Malik has over 30 years of experience in the chemicals industry, including senior roles at GrowHow UK, Terra Industries, and ICI PLC.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to CF Industries (CF) are primarily driven by its reliance on natural gas, the cyclical nature of the global fertilizer market, and evolving environmental regulations.
- Volatility of Natural Gas Prices: Natural gas is the primary raw material and the largest, most volatile component of manufacturing costs for CF Industries' nitrogen products, representing a significant portion of its production expenses. Fluctuations in natural gas prices, particularly in North America where its ammonia plants are located, can materially and adversely affect the company's business, financial condition, results of operations, and cash flows.
- Cyclicality and Intense Competition in the Global Nitrogen Products Industry: The nitrogen products industry is cyclical, with selling prices significantly influenced by periodic changes in global supply and demand. CF Industries faces intense global competition from other producers, including state-owned and government-subsidized entities that may have access to lower-cost resources. Changes in global trade policies, tariffs, and economic conditions can also impact the company's operations and profitability by affecting the supply and demand balance in various regions.
- Regulatory and Environmental Risks, Particularly Related to Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions: CF Industries' operations are subject to stringent environmental laws and regulations, including those related to greenhouse gas emissions. Future regulatory restrictions and requirements concerning GHG emissions could impose additional costs or constraints. Furthermore, uneven application of these regulations across different countries could place CF Industries at a competitive disadvantage if competitors operate under less stringent environmental standards. The company's strategic investments in decarbonization and clean energy initiatives also carry market development and execution risks, as well as the threat from alternative decarbonization technologies.
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1. Biological Nitrogen Fixation Technologies: The emergence and increasing commercialization of biological products and genetic modifications that enable crops to fix nitrogen directly from the atmosphere, or significantly enhance their ability to do so, poses a direct and disruptive threat to CF Industries' core synthetic nitrogen fertilizer business. These technologies could reduce farmers' reliance on industrially produced nitrogen fertilizers, similar to how Netflix disrupted Blockbuster's business model by offering an alternative content delivery method.
2. Electrification of Transportation: As the global automotive and heavy-duty vehicle industries shift towards electric powertrains, the demand for Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF) – a product sold by CF Industries for emissions abatement in diesel engines – will steadily decline. This represents a clear, long-term emerging threat to a specific segment of the company's product portfolio, driven by a fundamental technological transition akin to how smartphones displaced standalone GPS devices.
AI Analysis | Feedback
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. operates in several addressable markets for its main products and services. The market sizes for these products, primarily on a global scale, are outlined below:| Product/Service | Addressable Market Size (Region) |
|---|---|
| Anhydrous Ammonia | The global anhydrous ammonia market was valued at approximately USD 133,986.0 million in 2024. |
| Granular Urea | The global urea market was estimated at USD 139.71 billion in 2025. |
| Urea Ammonium Nitrate (UAN) | The global Urea Ammonium Nitrate (UAN) market was estimated to be USD 5.17 billion in 2024 and is projected to be around USD 5.423 billion in 2025. |
| Ammonium Nitrate | The global ammonium nitrate market size was valued at USD 20.09 billion in 2025. |
| Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF) | The global diesel exhaust fluid market size was valued at USD 39.85 billion in 2024 and grew to USD 43.02 billion in 2025. |
| Nitric Acid | The global nitric acid market size was valued at USD 30.84 billion in 2025. |
| Aqua Ammonia / Urea Liquor | Specific market sizes for "aqua ammonia" and "urea liquor" were not explicitly found. These are forms or components within the broader ammonia and urea markets. Urea is utilized in industrial applications, including the manufacture of diesel exhaust fluid (DEF). |
| Compound Fertilizer Products | The global compound fertilizer market was valued at approximately USD 9.66 billion in 2025. |
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for CF Industries (CF) over the next 2-3 years:
- Growing Demand for Low-Carbon Ammonia: CF Industries is strategically investing in the production of blue and green ammonia, which is anticipated to be a significant driver of future revenue growth. The company expects a substantial increase in the consumption of ammonia in non-traditional applications, particularly as a clean energy source, by 2030. Key initiatives include the Blue Point complex, a joint venture targeting the production of up to 1.4 million tonnes of blue ammonia, and the company is already selling certified low-carbon ammonia at a premium.
- Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) and 45Q Tax Credits: The company's investments in carbon capture and sequestration projects are poised to generate revenue. The Donaldsonville CCS project, which became operational in July 2025, is actively capturing and storing carbon dioxide and generating U.S. federal 45Q tax credits. These tax credits are expected to contribute approximately $100 million in annual free cash flow for 12 years, providing a high-margin revenue stream independent of fertilizer prices.
- Sustained Strong Global Nitrogen Demand and Tight Supply: CF Industries anticipates that tight conditions in the global nitrogen market will continue in the near to medium term. This is due to factors such as delayed or new capacity, constrained supply from regions like Trinidad, Iran, and Europe, and robust demand from major markets including India, Brazil, and North America. Geopolitical events, such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have also contributed to tighter global nitrogen/urea supply, supporting higher sales prices and a positive revenue outlook for CF Industries.
- Strength in the Agricultural Sector: The strong performance of the agricultural sector, driven by factors like low global corn stocks and increasing nitrogen demand, is expected to bolster revenue for CF Industries' traditional fertilizer products. Analysts anticipate solid U.S. farm demand for nitrogen products, with expectations for high planted acres of corn in the United States in 2026.
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Capital Allocation Decisions (Last 3-5 Years)
Share Repurchases
- CF Industries completed a $3 billion share repurchase program in October 2025, having repurchased 37.6 million shares since its authorization in 2022.
- In May 2025, the Board of Directors authorized a new $2 billion share repurchase program, effective through December 2029, with approximately $1.7 billion remaining under the program as of December 31, 2025.
- The company repurchased 16.6 million shares for $1.34 billion during 2025, and $1.509 billion in 2024, and $580 million in 2023.
Share Issuance
- CF Industries has focused on reducing its outstanding share count through repurchases, with shares outstanding declining by 10.24% in 2025, 6.76% in 2024, and 5.09% in 2023.
Inbound Investments
- The company's consolidated financial statements include capital contributions from joint venture equity partners JERA and Mitsui, who hold a combined 60% noncontrolling interest in the Blue Point joint venture.
Outbound Investments
- CF Industries formed the Blue Point joint venture with JERA Co., Inc. and Mitsui & Co., Ltd., holding a 40% ownership stake, for the construction and production of low-carbon ammonia.
- The company is investing approximately $100 million at its Yazoo City Complex to build a CO2 dehydration and compression unit to enable carbon capture, with an expected startup in 2028.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for the full year 2025 were approximately $950 million, including about $575 million for its existing network and $300-$400 million related to the Blue Point joint venture.
- Expected capital expenditures for 2026 are approximately $1.3 billion, with a primary focus on investments within its cost-advantaged North American manufacturing and distribution network and its clean energy growth platform.
- Capital expenditures were $1.501 billion in 2024 and $1.436 billion in 2023.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 44.72 |
| Mkt Cap | 12.3 |
| Rev LTM | 9,918 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,594 |
| FCF LTM | 842 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 736 |
| CFO LTM | 1,774 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,969 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 16.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -7.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 18.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 43.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -8.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 12.3 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| P/Op Inc | 9.8 |
| P/EBIT | 8.2 |
| P/E | 16.6 |
| P/CFO | 7.1 |
| Total Yield | 7.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -9.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 27.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 21.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 24.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -7.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -18.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 14.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -2.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -36.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $113.49 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 17.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 08/11/2005 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -17.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $122.55 | $97.21 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -7.4% | 16.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 61.6% | 42.2% |
| Downside Capture | -292.51 | -121.05 |
| Upside Capture | -191.12 | -60.67 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -61.6% | -27.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -3.02 | -3.10 | -2.76 | -1.79 | -0.96 | 0.18 |
| Up Beta | -5.33 | -3.87 | -3.52 | -2.79 | -1.68 | 0.14 |
| Down Beta | -2.04 | -1.23 | -1.69 | -0.78 | -0.33 | 0.49 |
| Up Capture | -198% | -140% | -128% | -67% | -30% | 4% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 21 | 34 | 71 | 135 | 403 |
| Down Capture | -311% | -553% | -566% | -453% | -250% | -26% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 20 | 29 | 53 | 115 | 345 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF | 26.6% | 42.0% | 0.67 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 17.3% | 16.9% | 0.78 | 5.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 25.3% | 12.1% | 1.57 | -24.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 27.6% | 26.9% | 0.88 | -1.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 36.9% | 19.0% | 1.52 | 62.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.5% | 13.3% | 0.63 | -11.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -42.0% | 42.5% | -1.16 | 2.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF | 18.9% | 38.2% | 0.55 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 5.1% | 18.9% | 0.17 | 32.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.1% | 0.62 | 18.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.3% | 18.1% | 0.78 | 8.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.5% | 19.4% | 0.38 | 41.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.2% | 18.8% | 0.07 | 17.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.3% | 54.6% | 0.40 | 7.5% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF | 17.8% | 40.4% | 0.54 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 10.1% | 20.6% | 0.44 | 51.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 38.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.0% | 16.0% | 0.67 | 3.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.1% | 18.0% | 0.32 | 41.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 31.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.3% | 66.9% | 1.03 | 11.4% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/7/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/6/2026 | -0.9% | 4.8% | -4.8% |
| 2/18/2026 | 3.8% | 0.3% | 31.0% |
| 11/5/2025 | -4.2% | -0.4% | -8.6% |
| 8/6/2025 | -7.8% | -3.9% | -5.5% |
| 5/7/2025 | 0.8% | 6.5% | 14.9% |
| 2/19/2025 | -4.2% | -7.2% | -8.2% |
| 10/30/2024 | 0.6% | 1.6% | 10.3% |
| 8/7/2024 | 8.5% | 9.9% | 7.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 17 | 14 |
| # Negative | 8 | 7 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 1.8% | 4.8% | 9.1% |
| Median Negative | -3.4% | -6.1% | -5.6% |
| Max Positive | 8.5% | 14.6% | 49.9% |
| Max Negative | -7.8% | -7.2% | -16.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/02/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 5/31/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Gross Ammonia Production | 9.50 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 9.50 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 950.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 950.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Capitalized Interest | 40.00 Mil | Higher New | |||||
| 2026 Urea Imports to India | 10.00 Mil | 11.00 Mil | 12.00 Mil | Higher New | |||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/18/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Gross Ammonia Production | 9.50 Mil | -5.0% | Lower New | Actual: 10.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 950.00 Mil | 31.0% | Higher New | Actual: 725.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2030 EBITDA | 3.00 Bil | ||||||
| 2030 Free Cash Flow | 2.00 Bil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 5/28/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mayer, Erik M | VP, Clean Energy & BusDevelop | Direct | Sell | 3192026 | 124.69 | 1,500 | 187,035 | 790,659 | Form |
| 2 | Hoker, Richard A | VP and Corporate Controller | See Footnote | Sell | 3192026 | 125.38 | 3,499 | 438,705 | 3,891,297 | Form |
| 3 | Frost, Bert A | EVP, Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3192026 | 126.00 | 6,000 | 756,000 | 8,753,472 | Form |
| 4 | Will, W Anthony | Direct | Sell | 3132026 | 130.83 | 53,026 | 6,937,569 | 7,195,180 | Form | |
| 5 | Menzel, Susan L | EVP and Chief Admin. Officer | Direct | Sell | 3132026 | 136.06 | 18,041 | 2,454,713 | 7,587,145 | Form |
CF Trade Sentinel
MARKET WEIGHT (Score 5-6)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
CF Industries scores a 6, making it a MARKET WEIGHT position. The thesis presents a classic cyclical trade with a strong, bullish near-term setup due to a tight global supply. The company's best-in-class cost structure provides a defensive moat. However, the upside is capped by the cyclical nature of the business, and the downside risk from a sudden geopolitical resolution is severe and binary. The position is a tactical one, not a long-term compounder, warranting a neutral weight.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Type C: Cyclical Opportunity (Commodity Cyclical)CF Industries is a pure-play nitrogen producer, making it a price-taker in a global commodity market. Its profitability is directly tied to the supply/demand balance for nitrogen and the cost of its primary input, natural gas. This fits the 'Commodity Cyclical' archetype where timing the cycle is paramount.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary long thesis rests on CF's structural cost advantage, derived from cheap North American natural gas, which allows it to capture outsized margins during periods of global supply constraint. Current market dynamics, including high energy costs for European/Asian producers and geopolitical disruptions, have created a tight supply environment, leading to strong nitrogen pricing.
- The global nitrogen market is in a supply deficit, leading to strong pricing power for low-cost producers.
- CF's unit cost advantage over European producers like Yara can be $200-$400 per ton, driven by access to low-cost North American natural gas.
- Analysts are revising earnings and price targets upward in early 2026, citing a tighter global nitrogen market and higher pricing expectations.
- Urea prices surged 37% from February to March 2026 due to geopolitical disruptions.
PRIMARY RISK
The single largest risk is a rapid collapse in the geopolitical risk premium currently embedded in nitrogen prices. An event such as a lasting ceasefire or the guaranteed safe passage of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz would quickly unwind supply fears, leading to a sharp drop in global urea and ammonia prices, directly compressing CF's revenue and margins.
- In mid-April 2026, news of a potential de-escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict caused CF's stock to fall over 10% and NOLA urea prices to drop approximately 18% in a single week.
- Risk Type is Geopolitical (Type 4) and Cyclical (Type 1), as an external event triggers a turn in the commodity cycle.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| NOLA Urea Price per Short Ton | Sustained break below $400/ton | This is a key benchmark for nitrogen pricing. A drop below the mid-cycle price deck signals the end of the peak pricing environment and an imminent decline in CF's profitability. |
| Henry Hub Natural Gas Price | Sustained move above $4.00/MMBtu | This is the primary input cost. A significant rise in natural gas prices that is not accompanied by a rise in nitrogen prices would directly compress gross margins. |
| China Urea Export Quotas | Any announcement of quota loosening by China's NDRC | An unexpected increase in Chinese exports would flood the global market, structurally shifting it to oversupply and breaking the current bullish thesis. |
Geopolitical Premium vs. Cyclical Reality
BULL VIEW
Bulls are betting that global supply constraints will persist, allowing CF's advantaged natural gas costs to generate superior margins and free cash flow for an extended period.
CORE TENSION
The core disagreement is whether CF's structural cost advantage is enough to outweigh the extreme, binary risk of a sudden collapse in nitrogen prices from a geopolitical de-escalation.
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The 18% drop in NOLA urea prices and 10% stock decline in one week of mid-April 2026 on de-escalation news confirms the market's extreme sensitivity to the Bear case.
BEAR VIEW
Bears believe the significant geopolitical risk premium in nitrogen prices is fragile and that a peace dividend would cause a rapid price collapse, severely compressing margins.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Anytime | Geopolitical Event (e.g., U.S./Iran De-escalation) Watch: Headline confirming safe passage for shipments through Strait of Hormuz, causing NOLA Urea prices to break below $400/ton. |
May 6, 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings & Guidance Watch: Management's Q2 average selling price guidance. Watch if they formally guide down following the April price drop. |
August 5, 2026 | Q2 2026 Earnings Report Watch: Sales Volume trends, particularly in North America, reflecting impact of weak farmer economics and potential demand destruction. |
Q3-Q4 2026 | China Policy Shift on Urea Exports Watch: Announcement from China's NDRC loosening urea export quotas, which are currently restricted through August 2026. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Nov 6, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Report Details: Despite net sales rising 21% YoY due to higher prices, the stock fell on concerns about declining sales volumes, which dropped from 4.8 to 4.5 million tons YoY. | Fell notably by -4.2% $84.09 -> $80.53 |
Feb 15, 2026 | CFO Separation Effective Details: The previously announced separation of CFO Gregory D. Cameron became effective. The lack of price reaction suggests the news was already priced in by the market. | Flat (0.2%) $86.14 -> $86.28 |
Feb 19, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Report Details: Reported Q4 EPS of $2.59, beating estimates by $0.24. The positive market reaction was driven by strong pricing power offsetting production volume concerns. | Rose significantly by 3.8% $95.82 -> $99.46 |
Mar 12, 2026 | Geopolitical Risk Premium Surge Details: Escalating geopolitical disruptions through February and March caused Urea prices to surge 37%, driving the stock to new highs as the market priced in higher future earnings. | Surged +13.2% $120.13 -> $136.00 |
Apr 17, 2026 | Geopolitical De-escalation Fears Details: News of a potential de-escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz caused a sharp sell-off, as NOLA urea prices dropped ~18%. | Plummeted -9.6% $124.71 -> $112.68 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (3.6x S&P) with Spiking near-term fear. The Bearish sentiment and Low Visibility force a Conservative sizing to manage severe drawdown risk, despite the cheap valuation.
Diversification Alternatives
NTR
SECTOROffers diversification away from CF's pure-play nitrogen risk into potash and retail distribution, providing more stable demand drivers and less exposure to geopolitical shocks in the Middle East.
MOS
INDUSTRYPrimary exposure to phosphate and potash, which have different supply/demand drivers than nitrogen. This provides a hedge against the specific geopolitical risks tied to natural gas and ammonia.
Repricing Catalyst
Industry Resources
| Materials Resources |
| Chemical & Engineering News (C&EN) |
| Mining.com |
| Plastics News |
| Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals Resources |
| World Fertilizer |
| Fertilizer Daily |
| Argus Media - Fertilizer |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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