Tearsheet

CF Industries (CF)


Market Price (2/5/2026): $94.7 | Market Cap: $15.2 Bil
Sector: Materials | Industry: Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals

CF Industries (CF)


Market Price (2/5/2026): $94.7
Market Cap: $15.2 Bil
Sector: Materials
Industry: Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 2.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.2%, FCF Yield is 11%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -10%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -49%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -13%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, CFO LTM is 2.6 Bil
  Key risks
CF key risks include [1] a competitive disadvantage against state-owned and government-subsidized global producers with lower-cost inputs and [2] the imposition of costly new environmental regulations and carbon border taxes.
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Hydrogen Economy, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Food Security & Sustainable Agriculture. Themes include Green Hydrogen Production, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 2.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.2%, FCF Yield is 11%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, CFO LTM is 2.6 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Hydrogen Economy, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Food Security & Sustainable Agriculture. Themes include Green Hydrogen Production, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -10%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -49%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -13%
6 Key risks
CF key risks include [1] a competitive disadvantage against state-owned and government-subsidized global producers with lower-cost inputs and [2] the imposition of costly new environmental regulations and carbon border taxes.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

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CF Industries (CF) stock has gained about 15% since 10/31/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Strong Anticipated Q4 2025 Earnings and Positive Full-Year Projections.

CF Industries experienced an upward trend in its stock due to favorable analyst expectations for its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results. Analysts projected a significant 33.9% year-over-year increase in profit to $2.53 per share for Q4 2025. For the entire fiscal year 2025, earnings per share were anticipated to rise by 32.8% to $8.95. This positive outlook was further bolstered by the company's consistent track record of exceeding Wall Street's bottom-line estimates in previous quarters. The upcoming release of these results on February 18, 2026, likely fueled investor optimism during this period.

2. Strategic Position as a Low-Cost Nitrogen Producer Amidst Favorable Market Dynamics.

The company's advantage as a low-cost producer of nitrogen, largely due to its access to inexpensive natural gas in the United States, contributed significantly to its stock appreciation. The nitrogen market demonstrated growing demand, supported by high planted acreage in the US and elevated global energy prices, which are generally beneficial for CF Industries' operational performance. This positioning allowed the company to project approximately $1.5 billion in annual cash flows, enhancing investor confidence in its financial stability and future prospects.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 14.4% change in CF stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 6.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)103120252042026Change
Stock Price ($)82.8094.7014.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)6,4476,7364.5%
Net Income Margin (%)20.2%20.5%1.4%
P/E Multiple10.411.16.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1631611.2%
Cumulative Contribution14.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 2/4/2026
ReturnCorrelation
CF14.4% 
Market (SPY)0.6%2.0%
Sector (XLB)21.1%47.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The 3.2% change in CF stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 9.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)73120252042026Change
Stock Price ($)91.7494.703.2%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)6,1296,7369.9%
Net Income Margin (%)21.8%20.5%-6.1%
P/E Multiple11.611.1-4.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1691614.7%
Cumulative Contribution3.2%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2025 to 2/4/2026
ReturnCorrelation
CF3.2% 
Market (SPY)8.9%6.1%
Sector (XLB)18.9%39.3%

Fundamental Drivers

The 5.2% change in CF stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 12.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)13120252042026Change
Stock Price ($)90.0494.705.2%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)5,9836,73612.6%
Net Income Margin (%)19.5%20.5%5.2%
P/E Multiple13.811.1-19.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)17816110.8%
Cumulative Contribution5.2%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2025 to 2/4/2026
ReturnCorrelation
CF5.2% 
Market (SPY)15.0%21.8%
Sector (XLB)18.6%37.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The 19.9% change in CF stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 123.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)13120232042026Change
Stock Price ($)78.9994.7019.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)11,1186,736-39.4%
Net Income Margin (%)28.7%20.5%-28.7%
P/E Multiple5.011.1123.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)20016124.3%
Cumulative Contribution19.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2023 to 2/4/2026
ReturnCorrelation
CF19.9% 
Market (SPY)75.1%20.2%
Sector (XLB)29.3%36.1%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
CF Return87%22%-5%10%-7%20%166%
Peers Return153%11%-22%-21%19%14%132%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%1%84%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CF Win Rate75%58%42%58%50%50% 
Peers Win Rate75%44%44%42%56%100% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CF Max Drawdown-0%-9%-29%-12%-19%0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-1%-8%-32%-25%-14%-1% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-1% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: NTR, MOS, LXU. See CF Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/4/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCFS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-49.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven96.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-55.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven125.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven343 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-30.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven44.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven166 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-76.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven330.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven998 days1,480 days

Compare to NTR, MOS, LXU

In The Past

CF Industries's stock fell -49.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/26/2022. A -49.1% loss requires a 96.5% gain to breakeven.

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About CF Industries (CF)

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. manufactures and sells hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement, and other industrial activities worldwide. Its principal products include anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate, and ammonium nitrate products. The company also offers diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid, and aqua ammonia products; and compound fertilizer products with nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. It primarily serves cooperatives, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers, and industrial users. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois.

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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for CF Industries:

  • ExxonMobil for farm nutrients
  • Alcoa for nitrogen fertilizer

AI Analysis | Feedback

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  • Ammonia: A foundational nitrogen fertilizer and industrial chemical used directly or as a feedstock for other nitrogen products.
  • Granular Urea: A solid, high-concentration nitrogen fertilizer widely applied in agriculture globally.
  • Urea Ammonium Nitrate (UAN) Solution: A widely used liquid nitrogen fertilizer known for its ease of application.
  • Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF): A urea-based solution used to reduce nitrogen oxide emissions in diesel engines.
  • Ammonium Nitrate: A solid nitrogen fertilizer also utilized in industrial applications, including mining.
```

AI Analysis | Feedback

CF Industries (symbol: CF) primarily sells its hydrogen and nitrogen products to other companies.

Due to the commodity nature of its products (primarily nitrogen fertilizers and industrial nitrogen products) and a highly diversified customer base, CF Industries does not typically disclose specific "major customers" that account for a material portion of its revenue in its public filings. Therefore, rather than specific named customer companies, the major categories of its business-to-business customers include:

  • Agricultural Distributors and Cooperatives: These entities purchase nitrogen fertilizers in bulk from CF Industries and then distribute and resell them to individual farmers and agricultural enterprises for crop nourishment. Many of these large regional cooperatives and national agricultural supply companies are privately held.
  • Industrial Customers: Various manufacturing and industrial companies utilize CF Industries' nitrogen products for non-agricultural applications. These can include the production of resins, plastics, explosives, or for environmental applications such as diesel exhaust fluid (DEF) to reduce emissions.
  • Wholesale Trading Companies: Particularly for international sales, CF Industries sells to global commodity trading firms that manage the logistics and distribution of bulk fertilizers and industrial chemicals to various end-markets worldwide.

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W. Anthony Will, President and Chief Executive Officer

Anthony Will has served as President and Chief Executive Officer and a member of the Board of Directors of CF Industries Holdings, Inc. since January 2014. He joined CF Industries in 2007. Before joining CF Industries, Mr. Will was a partner at Accenture Ltd., a global management consulting, technology services, and outsourcing company. Earlier in his career, he held positions at Sears, Roebuck and Company, Fort James Corporation as Vice President, Strategy & Corporate Development, and Boston Consulting Group as a Manager. Mr. Will will retire effective January 4, 2026.

Gregory D. Cameron, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Gregory D. Cameron joined CF Industries as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer in June 2024. Mr. Cameron most recently served as President and Chief Financial Officer of Bloom Energy, a global leader in solid oxide fuel cell technology, a role he started in 2020. Prior to joining Bloom Energy, he held a series of senior roles at General Electric over 26 years, including President and Chief Executive Officer, global operations for GE Company from 2018 through 2019, and President and Chief Executive Officer, global legacy solutions for GE Capital from 2016 through 2018.

Christopher D. Bohn, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

Christopher D. Bohn was appointed CF Industries' Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer and elected to the Company's Board of Directors in February 2024. As Chief Operating Officer, he leads CF Industries' manufacturing, distribution, sales, and supply chain organizations, as well as its clean energy initiatives. Mr. Bohn previously served as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer from 2019-2024. He joined CF Industries in September 2009. Prior to joining CF Industries, Mr. Bohn served as Chief Financial Officer for Hess Print Solutions and was Vice President global financial planning and analysis for Merisant Worldwide, Inc. Mr. Bohn has been elected to succeed W. Anthony Will as President and Chief Executive Officer, effective January 4, 2026.

Bert A. Frost, Executive Vice President, Sales, Market Development and Supply Chain

Bert A. Frost serves as the Executive Vice President, Sales, Market Development and Supply Chain at CF Industries.

Susan L. Menzel, Executive Vice President and Chief Administrative Officer

Susan L. Menzel was named Executive Vice President and Chief Administrative Officer in July 2023, overseeing CF Industries' human resources, information technology and legal functions. She joined the Company as Senior Vice President, Human Resources, in October 2017. Prior to joining CF Industries, Ms. Menzel served as Executive Vice President, Human Resources for CNO Financial Group. Before CNO, she was Senior Vice President, Human Resources for APAC Customer Services, Inc., and held roles of increasing responsibility for Sears, Roebuck & Company and Montgomery Ward, Inc.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to CF Industries' business are primarily driven by its position as a major producer in the global nitrogen fertilizer market and its reliance on natural gas as a primary feedstock.

  1. Volatility of Natural Gas Prices: CF Industries' operations are highly dependent on natural gas, which is the primary raw material for nitrogen fertilizer production. Fluctuations in natural gas prices directly impact the company's production costs and profit margins. Increased demand for natural gas, particularly in regions like the Gulf Coast, or other factors affecting supply and demand balances, can lead to rising natural gas prices, materially affecting the company's financial performance.
  2. Market Competition and Global Supply-Demand Balance: The nitrogen fertilizer market is characterized by intense price competition because nitrogen products are global commodities with little differentiation. CF Industries faces competition from numerous global producers, including state-owned and government-subsidized entities that may have access to lower-cost natural gas, financing, or other governmental support, placing CF Industries at a competitive disadvantage. An oversupply in the global nitrogen market or changes in the balance between global supply and demand can put downward pressure on selling prices, negatively impacting the company's financial condition and operating results.
  3. Regulatory and Environmental Risks: CF Industries operates within a highly regulated environment, particularly concerning environmental laws and greenhouse gas emissions. Stricter environmental regulations, including potential new policies related to greenhouse gas emissions or carbon border adjustment mechanisms (such as the European Union's), could impose additional costs, require significant operational changes, and affect the company's profitability and flexibility. Although CF Industries is investing in decarbonization efforts, regulatory uncertainty remains a potential threat.

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The clear emerging threat for CF Industries is the accelerating global transition to low-carbon ammonia and hydrogen production. This shift, driven by decarbonization mandates, evolving customer preferences for products with lower carbon footprints, and increasing regulatory pressures (such as carbon pricing and emissions targets), poses a direct challenge to the long-term viability and competitiveness of CF Industries' existing "grey" ammonia production facilities, which rely on natural gas as a feedstock and energy source without carbon capture. While CF Industries is investing in green ammonia projects, the rapid development and scaling of green (produced using renewable energy via electrolysis) and blue (produced from natural gas with carbon capture and storage) ammonia technologies by competitors globally could lead to significant devaluation or obsolescence of their traditional assets and potential market share loss if their transition is not sufficiently fast or extensive.

AI Analysis | Feedback

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (symbol: CF) is a leading global manufacturer of hydrogen and nitrogen products, primarily for clean energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement, and other industrial applications. Its core products include anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), and ammonium nitrate (AN). The addressable markets for their main products are as follows:

  • Nitrogenous Fertilizers (Global): The global nitrogenous fertilizer market was valued at approximately USD 64.52 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 88.99 billion by 2032, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.10%. Other estimates place the market at USD 63.83 billion in 2023, expected to reach USD 105.39 billion by 2032 with a CAGR of 5.73%, or USD 174.4 billion in 2025, expected to reach USD 232.3 billion by 2030 with a CAGR of 5.91%. Asia Pacific is a dominant region in this market.
  • Ammonia (Global): The global ammonia market was valued at USD 79.47 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 91.95 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 3.0%. Other estimates for the global ammonia market include USD 83.32 billion in 2024, projected to reach USD 127.10 billion by 2033 with a CAGR of 4.3%, or USD 224.10 billion in 2024, projected to reach USD 313.21 billion by 2030 with a CAGR of 5.9%. Asia Pacific holds the largest market share, exceeding 55.9% in 2024. North America also contributes significantly to the demand for ammonia in agriculture and industrial refrigeration.
  • Urea (Global): The global urea market was valued at USD 52.7 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach USD 60.2 billion by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 1.5%. Other valuations indicate a market size of USD 69.16 billion in 2024, projected to grow to USD 97.06 billion by 2032 with a CAGR of 2.8%, or approximately 180 million tonnes in 2024, expected to grow to 276 million tonnes by 2035 with a CAGR of 3.97%. In terms of value, another source reported the market size at USD 139.71 billion in 2025, anticipated to reach USD 167.41 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 2.03%. Asia Pacific dominates the urea market with a share of over 60.7% in 2024.
  • Urea Ammonium Nitrate (UAN) (Global): The global UAN fertilizer market was valued at approximately USD 5.2 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach around USD 9.7 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 6.8%. Other estimates for the global UAN market include USD 5.65 billion in 2024, expected to reach USD 8.54 billion by 2033 with a CAGR of 4.7%, or USD 7.56 billion in 2024, projected to grow to USD 10.19 billion by 2033 with a CAGR of 3.8%. In terms of volume, the global UAN market stood at approximately 23 million tonnes in 2022 and is anticipated to reach roughly 34 million tonnes by 2032. North America is the largest market, accounting for more than 40% of global UAN consumption and expected to consume over 10 million metric tons annually in 2024.

Market sizes for other products such as Ammonium Nitrate (AN) as a standalone market, Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF), Urea Liquor, Nitric Acid, and Aqua Ammonia were not specifically identified in the provided search results. While AN is a component of nitrogenous fertilizers and UAN, its individual market size was not available. CF Industries is noted as the largest producer of DEF in North America.

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CF Industries (symbol: CF) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key factors:

  1. Significant Expansion into Low-Carbon Ammonia Production: CF Industries is making substantial investments to become a leading producer of blue and green ammonia, which are critical for the global transition to clean energy. The company is evaluating a proposed $2 billion low-carbon clean ammonia production facility in Ascension Parish, Louisiana, in a joint venture with POSCO Holdings, with production expected to commence in 2029. Additionally, a $198.5 million project at its Donaldsonville complex aims to capture CO2 emissions, enabling the production of up to 1.7 million tons of blue ammonia annually. CF Industries has also initiated a green ammonia project at Donaldsonville to produce approximately 20,000 tons per year. These initiatives are expected to tap into a meaningfully growing demand for low-carbon ammonia for new applications like power generation. The company has already commenced sales of premium low-carbon ammonia, including its first cargo shipment in October 2025.
  2. Sustained Strong Global Nitrogen Demand: The company anticipates robust global nitrogen demand to continue through 2025 and into 2026, driven by favorable conditions in agricultural markets, such as low global fertilizer inventories and strong planting seasons in North America. This consistent demand for traditional nitrogen-based fertilizers, including ammonia, granular urea, and urea ammonium nitrate, is a fundamental driver of revenue growth.
  3. Favorable Global Supply-Demand Dynamics and Pricing: CF Industries expects the global nitrogen supply-demand balance to remain tight, or even tighten further through the end of the decade, as new production capacity is not keeping pace with demand growth. This dynamic is projected to support strong selling prices for nitrogen products. The company reported a substantial increase in average selling prices across all segments for the first nine months of 2025, contributing significantly to its net sales and adjusted gross margins.
  4. Increased Production Capacity and Operational Efficiency: CF Industries is leveraging its low-cost production advantage in North America and maintaining high operational efficiency to meet anticipated demand. The company achieved an exceptional 97% ammonia capacity utilization rate in the first nine months of 2025. Strategic investments, such as the Blue Point joint venture, are designed to significantly increase production capacity for low-carbon ammonia. These factors enable the company to produce and sell higher volumes of products efficiently, contributing to overall revenue growth.

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Share Repurchases

  • CF Industries completed a $3 billion share repurchase program, authorized in 2022, by October 2025, repurchasing 37.6 million shares, which represented 19% of the outstanding shares at the program's start.
  • The company authorized a new $2 billion share repurchase program in May 2025, which is effective through December 2029.
  • In 2024, CF Industries repurchased 18.8 million shares for $1.51 billion.

Inbound Investments

  • In April 2025, CF Industries formed a joint venture with JERA Co., Inc. and Mitsui & Co., Ltd. to construct a low-carbon ammonia plant at its Blue Point Complex in Louisiana, with the estimated cost for the facility being approximately $4 billion.

Outbound Investments

  • In December 2023, CF Industries acquired Incitec Pivot Limited's ammonia production facility in Waggaman, Louisiana, for approximately $1.675 billion, adding 880,000 tons of ammonia capacity to its network.

Capital Expenditures

  • Projected capital expenditures for the full year 2025 are approximately $925 million, with about $575 million allocated to existing network activities and $300-$400 million for the Blue Point joint venture.
  • Capital expenditures in 2024 totaled $518 million, and expected capital expenditures for 2026 are $750-$800 million.
  • A primary focus of capital expenditures includes decarbonization initiatives, such as the development of an ultra-low emissions ammonia plant at the Blue Point complex, a $100 million investment in a carbon dioxide dehydration and compression unit at its Yazoo City Complex, and a carbon capture and sequestration project at the Donaldsonville Complex.

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Peer Comparisons

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Financials

CFNTRMOSLXUMedian
NameCF Indus.Nutrien Mosaic LSB Indu. 
Mkt Price94.7071.5028.829.8550.16
Mkt Cap15.234.79.10.712.2
Rev LTM6,73626,62411,8955859,315
Op Inc LTM2,0973,5781,023241,560
FCF LTM1,7102,132-204-3854
FCF 3Y Avg1,5742,449513531,043
CFO LTM2,6334,1531,100821,867
CFO 3Y Avg2,6094,7891,8481292,228

Growth & Margins

CFNTRMOSLXUMedian
NameCF Indus.Nutrien Mosaic LSB Indu. 
Rev Chg LTM12.6%0.3%3.8%12.5%8.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-13.5%-10.6%-12.9%-10.6%-11.7%
Rev Chg Q21.1%12.3%22.8%42.3%22.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.5%2.5%5.7%8.6%5.1%
Op Mgn LTM31.1%13.4%8.6%4.1%11.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg33.2%13.7%9.1%7.9%11.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.9%2.0%1.5%7.1%2.0%
CFO/Rev LTM39.1%15.6%9.2%13.9%14.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg38.5%17.0%14.1%21.0%19.0%
FCF/Rev LTM25.4%8.0%-1.7%-0.5%3.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg22.3%8.7%3.5%7.7%8.2%

Valuation

CFNTRMOSLXUMedian
NameCF Indus.Nutrien Mosaic LSB Indu. 
Mkt Cap15.234.79.10.712.2
P/S2.31.30.81.21.3
P/EBIT6.910.84.823.58.8
P/E11.119.27.4-1,061.19.2
P/CFO5.88.48.38.78.3
Total Yield11.2%8.3%16.5%-0.1%9.8%
Dividend Yield2.2%3.1%3.0%0.0%2.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg11.1%9.4%4.5%7.8%8.6%
D/E0.20.40.50.70.5
Net D/E0.10.40.50.50.4

Returns

CFNTRMOSLXUMedian
NameCF Indus.Nutrien Mosaic LSB Indu. 
1M Rtn18.0%15.1%15.9%14.0%15.5%
3M Rtn12.0%33.6%10.9%17.4%14.7%
6M Rtn6.6%25.6%-5.3%28.8%16.1%
12M Rtn3.1%40.6%5.4%15.9%10.6%
3Y Rtn18.2%-2.2%-37.7%-19.1%-10.6%
1M Excs Rtn18.3%15.4%16.2%14.3%15.8%
3M Excs Rtn12.4%31.8%6.2%16.3%14.3%
6M Excs Rtn-5.9%13.9%-27.2%14.3%4.0%
12M Excs Rtn-9.9%31.0%-4.9%5.0%0.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-48.5%-69.4%-106.5%-90.8%-80.1%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Urea ammonium nitrate solution (UAN)2,0683,5721,7881,0631,270
Granular Urea1,8232,8921,8801,2481,342
Ammonia1,6793,0901,7871,0201,113
Other564787573338359
Ammonium nitrate (AN)497845510455506
Total6,63111,1866,5384,1244,590


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$94.70 
Market Cap ($ Bil)15.2 
First Trading Date08/11/2005 
Distance from 52W High-6.5% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$82.32$85.85
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA15.0%10.3%
 3M1YR
Volatility31.8%32.8%
Downside Capture-41.7716.25
Upside Capture27.9716.93
Correlation (SPY)3.3%22.1%
CF Betas & Captures as of 1/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta-0.29-0.400.230.240.390.42
Up Beta0.46-0.05-0.30-0.050.420.34
Down Beta-0.10-0.670.530.310.560.57
Up Capture148%59%59%26%15%13%
Bmk +ve Days11223471142430
Stock +ve Days14233766139392
Down Capture-328%-135%-10%33%30%66%
Bmk -ve Days9192754109321
Stock -ve Days6182459112356

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with CF
CF4.9%32.8%0.18-
Sector ETF (XLB)18.6%20.5%0.7237.4%
Equity (SPY)15.9%19.2%0.6421.9%
Gold (GLD)76.1%24.5%2.2714.7%
Commodities (DBC)9.3%16.5%0.3647.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.6%16.5%0.1025.9%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-24.7%40.5%-0.6014.9%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with CF
CF20.2%36.4%0.59-
Sector ETF (XLB)9.6%18.9%0.4040.0%
Equity (SPY)14.2%17.0%0.6626.0%
Gold (GLD)21.5%16.8%1.0413.3%
Commodities (DBC)12.1%18.9%0.5238.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.0%18.8%0.1723.2%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)18.0%57.4%0.529.8%

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Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with CF
CF15.4%40.2%0.49-
Sector ETF (XLB)12.9%20.7%0.5654.1%
Equity (SPY)15.7%17.9%0.7541.7%
Gold (GLD)15.6%15.5%0.845.3%
Commodities (DBC)8.3%17.6%0.3939.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.9%20.8%0.2533.7%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)69.3%66.5%1.0912.2%

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Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date1152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity12.9 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 12312025-9.5%
Average Daily Volume2.7 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.7 days
Basic Shares Quantity161.0 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares8.0%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/5/2025-4.2%0.2%-8.6%
8/6/2025-7.8%-3.9%-5.5%
5/7/20250.8%6.5%14.9%
2/19/2025-4.2%-7.2%-8.2%
10/30/20240.6%1.6%10.3%
8/7/20248.5%9.9%7.8%
5/1/2024-5.3%-6.1%3.0%
2/14/2024-1.0%2.7%7.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive161614
# Negative8810
Median Positive1.8%4.2%9.1%
Median Negative-4.2%-6.1%-6.9%
Max Positive8.5%14.6%49.9%
Max Negative-7.8%-7.2%-33.0%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202511/06/202510-Q
06/30/202508/07/202510-Q
03/31/202505/08/202510-Q
12/31/202402/20/202510-K
09/30/202410/31/202410-Q
06/30/202408/08/202410-Q
03/31/202405/02/202410-Q
12/31/202302/22/202410-K
09/30/202311/02/202310-Q
06/30/202308/03/202310-Q
03/31/202305/02/202310-Q
12/31/202202/23/202310-K
09/30/202211/03/202210-Q
06/30/202208/02/202210-Q
03/31/202205/05/202210-Q
12/31/202102/24/202210-K

Insider Activity

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#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Menzel, Susan LEVP and Chief Admin. OfficerDirectSell6242025100.2310,0001,002,3008,812,522Form
2Malik, Ashraf KSr. VP, Manufacturing & D'istnDirectSell617202599.955,498549,5351,455,798Form
3Frost, Bert AEVP,Sales,MktDev&Supply ChainDirectSell617202597.4916,0001,559,8879,766,742Form
4Frost, Bert AEVP,Sales,MktDev&Supply ChainDirectSell6172025100.8510,0031,008,8289,094,484Form
5Menzel, Susan LEVP and Chief Admin. OfficerDirectSell117202596.001,500144,0008,878,656Form