CF Industries (CF)
Market Price (4/10/2026): $119.38 | Market Cap: $18.6 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals
CF Industries (CF)
Market Price (4/10/2026): $119.38Market Cap: $18.6 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.7%, FCF Yield is 9.7% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, CFO LTM is 2.8 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 3.5 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Hydrogen Economy, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Food Security & Sustainable Agriculture. Themes include Green Hydrogen Production, Show more. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -11% Key risksCF key risks include [1] a competitive disadvantage against state-owned and government-subsidized global producers with lower-cost inputs and [2] the imposition of costly new environmental regulations and carbon border taxes. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.7%, FCF Yield is 9.7% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, CFO LTM is 2.8 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 3.5 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Hydrogen Economy, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Food Security & Sustainable Agriculture. Themes include Green Hydrogen Production, Show more. |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -11% |
| Key risksCF key risks include [1] a competitive disadvantage against state-owned and government-subsidized global producers with lower-cost inputs and [2] the imposition of costly new environmental regulations and carbon border taxes. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Q4 2025 Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns. CF Industries reported adjusted earnings of $2.99 per share for the fourth quarter of 2025, significantly exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.50. Net sales for the quarter also increased by 22.8% year-over-year, reaching $1.872 billion and surpassing analysts' expectations. Furthermore, the company demonstrated a strong commitment to shareholder returns by repurchasing 16.6 million shares for $1.34 billion during 2025, which reduced its outstanding share count by approximately 10% compared to the end of 2024.
2. Geopolitical Supply Shocks Tightened Global Nitrogen Markets. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, particularly disruptions to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, significantly impacted global nitrogen supply. This vital shipping lane accounts for roughly 30% of the world's ammonia and nearly half of global urea exports, leading to a "scarcity premium" in the market. As a result, global fertilizer prices surged by 21% in early March 2026, with urea prices at the Port of New Orleans spiking over 20% in just two weeks.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 55.2% change in CF stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 42.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 76.93 | 119.38 | 55.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,736 | 7,084 | 5.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.5% | 20.5% | 0.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.0 | 12.8 | 42.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 161 | 156 | 3.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 55.2% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CF | 55.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | -27.8% |
| Sector (XLB) | 13.9% | -1.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 34.6% change in CF stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 15.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 88.69 | 119.38 | 34.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,447 | 7,084 | 9.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.2% | 20.5% | 1.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.1 | 12.8 | 15.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 163 | 156 | 4.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 34.6% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CF | 34.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | -12.0% |
| Sector (XLB) | 15.9% | 12.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 56.3% change in CF stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 19.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 76.37 | 119.38 | 56.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,936 | 7,084 | 19.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.5% | 20.5% | 0.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.8 | 12.8 | 17.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 173 | 156 | 11.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 56.3% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CF | 56.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 9.6% |
| Sector (XLB) | 22.0% | 21.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 76.7% change in CF stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 222.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 67.56 | 119.38 | 76.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 11,186 | 7,084 | -36.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 29.9% | 20.5% | -31.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 4.0 | 12.8 | 222.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 196 | 156 | 26.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 76.7% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CF | 76.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 14.2% |
| Sector (XLB) | 35.3% | 28.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CF Return | 87% | 22% | -5% | 10% | -7% | 64% | 265% |
| Peers Return | 153% | 11% | -22% | -21% | 19% | 36% | 177% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -1% | 81% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CF Win Rate | 75% | 58% | 42% | 58% | 50% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 75% | 44% | 44% | 42% | 56% | 75% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CF Max Drawdown | -0% | -9% | -29% | -12% | -19% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -1% | -8% | -32% | -25% | -14% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: NTR, MOS, LXU. See CF Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/9/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -49.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 96.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,014 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -55.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 125.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 343 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -30.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 166 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -76.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 330.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 998 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to NTR, MOS, LXU
In The Past
CF Industries's stock fell -49.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/26/2022. A -49.1% loss requires a 96.5% gain to breakeven.
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About CF Industries (CF)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for CF Industries:
- John Deere for fertilizer
- Dow Chemical for nitrogen fertilizers
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Anhydrous Ammonia: A primary nitrogen product used as a fertilizer and in various industrial processes.
- Granular Urea: A solid, high-nitrogen fertilizer widely used in agriculture.
- Urea Ammonium Nitrate (UAN): A liquid solution fertilizer providing nitrogen to crops.
- Ammonium Nitrate: A nitrogen-rich compound used as a fertilizer and in industrial applications.
- Compound Fertilizer Products: Fertilizers containing a blend of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium (NPK) to meet diverse crop nutritional needs.
AI Analysis | Feedback
CF Industries (symbol: CF) primarily sells its hydrogen and nitrogen products to other companies, rather than directly to individuals. Based on the provided company description, its major customers are:
- Cooperatives
- Independent fertilizer distributors
- Traders
- Wholesalers
- Industrial users
The company description does not provide specific names for these customer companies, nor their public symbols.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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Christopher D. Bohn, President and Chief Executive Officer
Chris Bohn became President and Chief Executive Officer of CF Industries on January 5, 2026. He joined CF Industries in September 2009 as director of corporate planning and analysis. He held various roles including vice president of corporate planning (2010-2014), vice president of supply chain (2014-2015), senior vice president of manufacturing and distribution (2015-2019), and executive vice president and chief financial officer (2019-2024). Most recently, he served as Chief Operating Officer in 2024. Prior to joining CF Industries, Mr. Bohn was Chief Financial Officer for Hess Print Solutions and Vice President Global Financial Planning & Analysis for Merisant Worldwide, Inc. He also held financial analysis and strategy positions with Searle Pharmaceuticals and 3M Corporation. He holds a B.S. degree in Finance from Indiana University and an M.B.A. from Northwestern University's Kellogg Graduate School of Management.
Richard A. Hoker, Interim Chief Financial Officer
Richard Hoker was appointed Interim Chief Financial Officer of CF Industries effective February 15, 2026. He joined CF Industries in November 2007 and has served as the company's vice president and corporate controller and chief accounting officer. Before joining CF Industries, Mr. Hoker was vice president and controller and principal accounting officer for Sara Lee Corporation. Earlier in his career, he held various positions at Coopers & Lybrand LLP (now PricewaterhouseCoopers). He is a Certified Public Accountant and holds a B.S. degree in accounting from DePaul University and an M.B.A. in Finance and Accounting from the University of Chicago.
Bert A. Frost, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer
Bert Frost is the executive vice president and chief commercial officer at CF Industries, a role he has held since joining the company in November 2008. Prior to CF Industries, he was with Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM), serving as managing director, international fertilizer and inputs, based in Switzerland. Earlier, he was director of the fertilizer, logistics, and ports divisions for ADM in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Mr. Frost holds a B.S. degree in business from Kansas State University and is a graduate of the Harvard Business School, Advanced Management Program.
Sue Menzel, Executive Vice President and Chief Administrative Officer
Sue Menzel was named executive vice president and chief administrative officer in July 2023, overseeing human resources, information technology, and legal functions. She joined CF Industries in October 2017 as senior vice president, human resources. Before joining CF Industries, Ms. Menzel served as executive vice president, human resources for CNO Financial Group. Prior to CNO, she was senior vice president, human resources for APAC Customer Services, Inc., and held roles of increasing responsibility at Sears, Roebuck & Company and Montgomery Ward, Inc.
Ashraf Malik, Senior Vice President, Manufacturing and Distribution
Ashraf Malik assumed the role of senior vice president, manufacturing and distribution, in September 2019. In this role, he is accountable for the company's manufacturing, corporate engineering, environmental health and safety, and distribution facilities. Previously, he served as vice president, site operations, since 2012. Mr. Malik has over 30 years of experience in the chemicals industry, including senior roles at GrowHow UK, Terra Industries, and ICI PLC.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to CF Industries (CF) are primarily driven by its reliance on natural gas, the cyclical nature of the global fertilizer market, and evolving environmental regulations.
- Volatility of Natural Gas Prices: Natural gas is the primary raw material and the largest, most volatile component of manufacturing costs for CF Industries' nitrogen products, representing a significant portion of its production expenses. Fluctuations in natural gas prices, particularly in North America where its ammonia plants are located, can materially and adversely affect the company's business, financial condition, results of operations, and cash flows.
- Cyclicality and Intense Competition in the Global Nitrogen Products Industry: The nitrogen products industry is cyclical, with selling prices significantly influenced by periodic changes in global supply and demand. CF Industries faces intense global competition from other producers, including state-owned and government-subsidized entities that may have access to lower-cost resources. Changes in global trade policies, tariffs, and economic conditions can also impact the company's operations and profitability by affecting the supply and demand balance in various regions.
- Regulatory and Environmental Risks, Particularly Related to Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions: CF Industries' operations are subject to stringent environmental laws and regulations, including those related to greenhouse gas emissions. Future regulatory restrictions and requirements concerning GHG emissions could impose additional costs or constraints. Furthermore, uneven application of these regulations across different countries could place CF Industries at a competitive disadvantage if competitors operate under less stringent environmental standards. The company's strategic investments in decarbonization and clean energy initiatives also carry market development and execution risks, as well as the threat from alternative decarbonization technologies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Biological Nitrogen Fixation Technologies: The emergence and increasing commercialization of biological products and genetic modifications that enable crops to fix nitrogen directly from the atmosphere, or significantly enhance their ability to do so, poses a direct and disruptive threat to CF Industries' core synthetic nitrogen fertilizer business. These technologies could reduce farmers' reliance on industrially produced nitrogen fertilizers, similar to how Netflix disrupted Blockbuster's business model by offering an alternative content delivery method.
2. Electrification of Transportation: As the global automotive and heavy-duty vehicle industries shift towards electric powertrains, the demand for Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF) – a product sold by CF Industries for emissions abatement in diesel engines – will steadily decline. This represents a clear, long-term emerging threat to a specific segment of the company's product portfolio, driven by a fundamental technological transition akin to how smartphones displaced standalone GPS devices.
AI Analysis | Feedback
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. operates in several addressable markets for its main products and services. The market sizes for these products, primarily on a global scale, are outlined below:| Product/Service | Addressable Market Size (Region) |
|---|---|
| Anhydrous Ammonia | The global anhydrous ammonia market was valued at approximately USD 133,986.0 million in 2024. |
| Granular Urea | The global urea market was estimated at USD 139.71 billion in 2025. |
| Urea Ammonium Nitrate (UAN) | The global Urea Ammonium Nitrate (UAN) market was estimated to be USD 5.17 billion in 2024 and is projected to be around USD 5.423 billion in 2025. |
| Ammonium Nitrate | The global ammonium nitrate market size was valued at USD 20.09 billion in 2025. |
| Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF) | The global diesel exhaust fluid market size was valued at USD 39.85 billion in 2024 and grew to USD 43.02 billion in 2025. |
| Nitric Acid | The global nitric acid market size was valued at USD 30.84 billion in 2025. |
| Aqua Ammonia / Urea Liquor | Specific market sizes for "aqua ammonia" and "urea liquor" were not explicitly found. These are forms or components within the broader ammonia and urea markets. Urea is utilized in industrial applications, including the manufacture of diesel exhaust fluid (DEF). |
| Compound Fertilizer Products | The global compound fertilizer market was valued at approximately USD 9.66 billion in 2025. |
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for CF Industries (CF) over the next 2-3 years:
- Growing Demand for Low-Carbon Ammonia: CF Industries is strategically investing in the production of blue and green ammonia, which is anticipated to be a significant driver of future revenue growth. The company expects a substantial increase in the consumption of ammonia in non-traditional applications, particularly as a clean energy source, by 2030. Key initiatives include the Blue Point complex, a joint venture targeting the production of up to 1.4 million tonnes of blue ammonia, and the company is already selling certified low-carbon ammonia at a premium.
- Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) and 45Q Tax Credits: The company's investments in carbon capture and sequestration projects are poised to generate revenue. The Donaldsonville CCS project, which became operational in July 2025, is actively capturing and storing carbon dioxide and generating U.S. federal 45Q tax credits. These tax credits are expected to contribute approximately $100 million in annual free cash flow for 12 years, providing a high-margin revenue stream independent of fertilizer prices.
- Sustained Strong Global Nitrogen Demand and Tight Supply: CF Industries anticipates that tight conditions in the global nitrogen market will continue in the near to medium term. This is due to factors such as delayed or new capacity, constrained supply from regions like Trinidad, Iran, and Europe, and robust demand from major markets including India, Brazil, and North America. Geopolitical events, such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have also contributed to tighter global nitrogen/urea supply, supporting higher sales prices and a positive revenue outlook for CF Industries.
- Strength in the Agricultural Sector: The strong performance of the agricultural sector, driven by factors like low global corn stocks and increasing nitrogen demand, is expected to bolster revenue for CF Industries' traditional fertilizer products. Analysts anticipate solid U.S. farm demand for nitrogen products, with expectations for high planted acres of corn in the United States in 2026.
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Capital Allocation Decisions (Last 3-5 Years)
Share Repurchases
- CF Industries completed a $3 billion share repurchase program in October 2025, having repurchased 37.6 million shares since its authorization in 2022.
- In May 2025, the Board of Directors authorized a new $2 billion share repurchase program, effective through December 2029, with approximately $1.7 billion remaining under the program as of December 31, 2025.
- The company repurchased 16.6 million shares for $1.34 billion during 2025, and $1.509 billion in 2024, and $580 million in 2023.
Share Issuance
- CF Industries has focused on reducing its outstanding share count through repurchases, with shares outstanding declining by 10.24% in 2025, 6.76% in 2024, and 5.09% in 2023.
Inbound Investments
- The company's consolidated financial statements include capital contributions from joint venture equity partners JERA and Mitsui, who hold a combined 60% noncontrolling interest in the Blue Point joint venture.
Outbound Investments
- CF Industries formed the Blue Point joint venture with JERA Co., Inc. and Mitsui & Co., Ltd., holding a 40% ownership stake, for the construction and production of low-carbon ammonia.
- The company is investing approximately $100 million at its Yazoo City Complex to build a CO2 dehydration and compression unit to enable carbon capture, with an expected startup in 2028.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for the full year 2025 were approximately $950 million, including about $575 million for its existing network and $300-$400 million related to the Blue Point joint venture.
- Expected capital expenditures for 2026 are approximately $1.3 billion, with a primary focus on investments within its cost-advantaged North American manufacturing and distribution network and its clean energy growth platform.
- Capital expenditures were $1.501 billion in 2024 and $1.436 billion in 2023.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to CF.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03272026 | AXTA | Axalta Coating Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -0.6% |
| 03272026 | IFF | International Flavors & Fragrances | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.2% | 2.2% | -0.1% |
| 03132026 | IP | International Paper | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -4.2% | -4.2% | -9.4% |
| 03062026 | ARIS | Aris Mining | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.9% | -3.9% | -16.7% |
| 03062026 | EMN | Eastman Chemical | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.8% | 9.8% | -6.0% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 66.2% | 66.2% | -3.1% |
| 03312023 | CF | CF Industries | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.6% | 17.4% | -16.4% |
| 09302020 | CF | CF Industries | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 50.3% | 87.1% | -16.3% |
| 02292020 | CF | CF Industries | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -8.0% | 27.6% | -42.6% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 49.02 |
| Mkt Cap | 13.3 |
| Rev LTM | 9,568 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,727 |
| FCF LTM | 910 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 850 |
| CFO LTM | 1,788 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,052 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -10.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 14.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 13.3 |
| P/S | 1.4 |
| P/EBIT | 8.6 |
| P/E | 15.2 |
| P/CFO | 9.3 |
| Total Yield | 9.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 34.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 28.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 64.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 26.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 39.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 25.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 29.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -45.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $119.38 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 18.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 08/11/2005 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -13.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $110.69 | $91.34 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 7.9% | 30.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 54.8% | 37.7% |
| Downside Capture | -1.11 | -0.40 |
| Upside Capture | -22.70 | 11.40 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -27.8% | 1.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -2.87 | -1.41 | -1.13 | -0.41 | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| Up Beta | -9.11 | -2.02 | -1.69 | -0.72 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Down Beta | -1.23 | -0.21 | -0.34 | 0.07 | 0.50 | 0.49 |
| Up Capture | -185% | -70% | -3% | 2% | 11% | 11% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 26 | 41 | 72 | 145 | 399 |
| Down Capture | -451% | -330% | -368% | -145% | -91% | 21% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 16 | 22 | 54 | 107 | 348 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF | 69.9% | 38.0% | 1.47 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 37.1% | 19.5% | 1.49 | 16.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 29.1% | 17.4% | 1.36 | 2.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 61.3% | 27.8% | 1.72 | 7.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 26.9% | 16.7% | 1.41 | 50.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 17.7% | 15.4% | 0.86 | 1.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -10.9% | 43.9% | -0.14 | 9.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF | 23.7% | 37.4% | 0.66 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 7.4% | 18.9% | 0.29 | 35.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.4% | 17.0% | 0.52 | 22.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.2% | 17.8% | 1.02 | 10.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.5% | 18.8% | 0.50 | 38.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.7% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 18.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 3.6% | 56.5% | 0.29 | 7.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF | 17.6% | 40.3% | 0.54 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 10.9% | 20.6% | 0.47 | 52.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.9% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 40.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.1% | 15.9% | 0.74 | 4.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.5% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 40.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 32.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.1% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 11.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/18/2026 | 3.8% | 0.3% | 31.0% |
| 11/5/2025 | -4.2% | -0.4% | -8.6% |
| 8/6/2025 | -7.8% | -3.9% | -5.5% |
| 5/7/2025 | 0.8% | 6.5% | 14.9% |
| 2/19/2025 | -4.2% | -7.2% | -8.2% |
| 10/30/2024 | 0.6% | 1.6% | 10.3% |
| 8/7/2024 | 8.5% | 9.9% | 7.8% |
| 5/1/2024 | -5.3% | -6.1% | 3.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 17 | 16 | 15 |
| # Negative | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 2.0% | 4.2% | 10.3% |
| Median Negative | -4.2% | -6.1% | -5.7% |
| Max Positive | 8.5% | 14.6% | 49.9% |
| Max Negative | -7.8% | -7.2% | -16.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/18/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Gross Ammonia Production | 9.50 Mil | -5.0% | Lower New | Actual: 10.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 950.00 Mil | 31.0% | Higher New | Actual: 725.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2030 EBITDA | 3.00 Bil | ||||||
| 2030 Free Cash Flow | 2.00 Bil | ||||||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/5/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Gross Ammonia Production | 10.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 10.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Capital Expenditures | 925.00 Mil | 8.8% | Raised | Guidance: 850.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Capital Expenditures (Excluding JV) | 725.00 Mil | 11.5% | Raised | Guidance: 650.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Capital Expenditures (Blue Point) | 25.00 Mil | Higher New | |||||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Menzel, Susan L | EVP and Chief Admin. Officer | Direct | Sell | 6242025 | 100.23 | 10,000 | 1,002,300 | 8,812,522 | Form |
| 2 | Malik, Ashraf K | Sr. VP, Manufacturing & D'istn | Direct | Sell | 6172025 | 99.95 | 5,498 | 549,535 | 1,455,798 | Form |
| 3 | Frost, Bert A | EVP,Sales,MktDev&Supply Chain | Direct | Sell | 6172025 | 97.49 | 16,000 | 1,559,887 | 9,766,742 | Form |
| 4 | Frost, Bert A | EVP,Sales,MktDev&Supply Chain | Direct | Sell | 6172025 | 100.85 | 10,003 | 1,008,828 | 9,094,484 | Form |
| 5 | Will, W Anthony | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 99.07 | 101,148 | 10,021,153 | 36,846,768 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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