Tearsheet

CF Industries (CF)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $78.99 | Market Cap: $12.7 Bil
Sector: Materials | Industry: Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals

CF Industries (CF)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $78.99
Market Cap: $12.7 Bil
Sector: Materials
Industry: Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 2.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.7%, FCF Yield is 12%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -34%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -83%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -13%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, CFO LTM is 2.6 Bil
  Key risks
CF key risks include [1] a competitive disadvantage against state-owned and government-subsidized global producers with lower-cost inputs and [2] the imposition of costly new environmental regulations and carbon border taxes.
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Hydrogen Economy, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Food Security & Sustainable Agriculture. Themes include Green Hydrogen Production, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 2.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.7%, FCF Yield is 12%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, CFO LTM is 2.6 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Hydrogen Economy, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Food Security & Sustainable Agriculture. Themes include Green Hydrogen Production, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -34%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -83%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -13%
6 Key risks
CF key risks include [1] a competitive disadvantage against state-owned and government-subsidized global producers with lower-cost inputs and [2] the imposition of costly new environmental regulations and carbon border taxes.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CF Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Q2 2025 earnings miss and increased natural gas costs: CF Industries reported second-quarter 2025 earnings per share that fell short of analyst expectations, a factor potentially exacerbated by significantly higher natural gas costs, a critical input for nitrogen fertilizer production.

2. Market skepticism regarding cyclical risks: Despite reporting strong financial results in the third quarter of 2025, CF Industries' stock experienced downward pressure due to market skepticism concerning the inherent cyclical risks within the fertilizer industry.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CF Return-16%87%22%-5%10%-7%88%
Peers Return-2%153%11%-22%-21%19%100%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CF Win Rate50%75%58%42%58%50% 
Peers Win Rate58%75%44%44%42%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CF Max Drawdown-55%-0%-9%-29%-12%-19% 
Peers Max Drawdown-63%-1%-8%-32%-25%-14% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NTR, MOS, LXU. See CF Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCFS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-49.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven96.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-55.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven125.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven343 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-30.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven44.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven166 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-76.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven330.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven998 days1480 days

Compare to MOS, FMC, CMP, LXU, IPI


In The Past

CF Industries's stock fell -49.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/26/2022. A -49.1% loss requires a 96.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About CF Industries (CF)

Better Bets than CF Industries (CF)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CF. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
42.2%42.2%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%-2.5%
CF_3312023_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03312023CFCF IndustriesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.6%17.4%-16.4%
CF_9302020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302020CFCF IndustriesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
50.3%87.1%-16.3%
CF_2292020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield02292020CFCF IndustriesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-8.0%27.6%-42.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
42.2%42.2%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%-2.5%
CF_3312023_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03312023CFCF IndustriesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.6%17.4%-16.4%
CF_9302020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302020CFCF IndustriesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
50.3%87.1%-16.3%
CF_2292020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield02292020CFCF IndustriesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-8.0%27.6%-42.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for CF Industries

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CFNTRMOSLXUMedian
NameCF Indus.Nutrien Mosaic LSB Indu. 
Mkt Price79.0163.3024.038.7143.66
Mkt Cap12.730.77.60.610.2
Rev LTM6,73626,62411,8955859,315
Op Inc LTM2,0973,5781,023241,560
FCF LTM1,7102,132-204-3854
FCF 3Y Avg1,5742,449513531,043
CFO LTM2,6334,1531,100821,867
CFO 3Y Avg2,6094,7891,8481292,228

Growth & Margins

CFNTRMOSLXUMedian
NameCF Indus.Nutrien Mosaic LSB Indu. 
Rev Chg LTM12.6%0.3%3.8%12.5%8.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-13.5%-10.6%-12.9%-10.6%-11.7%
Rev Chg Q21.1%12.3%22.8%42.3%22.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.5%2.5%5.7%8.6%5.1%
Op Mgn LTM31.1%13.4%8.6%4.1%11.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg33.2%13.7%9.1%7.9%11.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.9%2.0%1.5%7.1%2.0%
CFO/Rev LTM39.1%15.6%9.2%13.9%14.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg38.5%17.0%14.1%21.0%19.0%
FCF/Rev LTM25.4%8.0%-1.7%-0.5%3.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg22.3%8.7%3.5%7.7%8.2%

Valuation

CFNTRMOSLXUMedian
NameCF Indus.Nutrien Mosaic LSB Indu. 
Mkt Cap12.730.77.60.610.2
P/S2.11.10.91.01.0
P/EBIT6.58.85.818.87.7
P/E10.515.89.0-848.99.7
P/CFO5.56.910.07.06.9
Total Yield11.9%10.1%13.7%-0.1%11.0%
Dividend Yield2.3%3.7%2.5%0.0%2.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg10.1%9.0%4.6%7.1%8.0%
D/E0.20.50.40.90.5
Net D/E0.10.50.40.60.4

Returns

CFNTRMOSLXUMedian
NameCF Indus.Nutrien Mosaic LSB Indu. 
1M Rtn-2.1%11.1%-1.1%-6.2%-1.6%
3M Rtn-5.6%13.1%-29.0%7.0%0.7%
6M Rtn-20.3%3.5%-33.0%0.6%-9.9%
12M Rtn-6.7%42.3%-2.6%5.6%1.5%
3Y Rtn-10.9%-2.7%-42.2%-36.0%-23.5%
1M Excs Rtn-2.8%10.3%-1.8%-7.0%-2.3%
3M Excs Rtn-6.8%12.3%-30.5%2.6%-2.1%
6M Excs Rtn-32.7%-8.9%-45.4%-11.8%-22.2%
12M Excs Rtn-20.7%25.9%-18.5%-12.0%-15.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-82.6%-76.0%-113.0%-107.9%-95.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Urea ammonium nitrate solution (UAN)2,0683,5721,7881,0631,270
Granular Urea1,8232,8921,8801,2481,342
Ammonia1,6793,0901,7871,0201,113
Other564787573338359
Ammonium nitrate (AN)497845510455506
Total6,63111,1866,5384,1244,590


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity11,010,077
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520251.4%
Average Daily Volume2,658,015
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.14
Basic Shares Quantity161,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares6.8%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/5/2025-4.2%0.2%-8.6%
8/6/2025-7.8%-3.9%-5.5%
5/7/20250.8%6.5%14.9%
2/19/2025-4.2%-7.2%-8.2%
10/30/20240.6%1.6%10.3%
8/7/20248.5%9.9%7.8%
5/1/2024-5.3%-6.1%3.0%
2/14/2024-1.0%2.7%7.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive161614
# Negative8810
Median Positive1.8%4.2%9.1%
Median Negative-4.2%-6.1%-6.9%
Max Positive8.5%14.6%49.9%
Max Negative-7.8%-7.2%-33.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024220202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023222202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023502202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022802202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Malik Ashraf KSr. VP, Manufacturing & D'istn6172025Sell99.955,498549,5351,455,798Form
1Frost Bert AEVP,Sales,MktDev&Supply Chain6172025Sell97.3213,2501,289,45810,016,803Form
2Menzel Susan LEVP and Chief Admin. Officer1172025Sell96.001,500144,0008,878,656Form
3Menzel Susan LEVP and Chief Admin. Officer1142025Sell95.001,500142,5008,928,670Form
4Malik Ashraf KSr. VP, Manufacturing & D'istn1142025Sell95.008,889844,4571,507,748Form