Karat Packaging (KRT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $22.43 | Market Cap: $449.9 MilSector: Materials | Industry: Metal, Glass & Plastic Containers
Karat Packaging (KRT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $22.43Market Cap: $449.9 MilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Metal, Glass & Plastic Containers
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 6.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.8%, FCF Yield is 7.5% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -32% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Consumption, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Eco-friendly Products, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 6.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.8%, FCF Yield is 7.5% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Consumption, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Eco-friendly Products, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -32% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
KRT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The -9.3% movement in Karat Packaging (KRT) stock during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, can be attributed to several key factors:
1. Negative Market Reaction to Q3 2025 Earnings: Karat Packaging's stock experienced a significant decline following its Q3 2025 earnings report on November 6, 2025. As of December 4, 2025, the stock was noted to be down 6.5% since this reporting, indicating an immediate negative market sentiment despite some metrics.
2. Significant Gross Margin Contraction: A major concern for investors highlighted in the Q3 2025 report was the substantial year-over-year decrease in the company's gross margin, which fell to 34.5% from 38.6%. This reduction was primarily driven by increased import costs and tariffs, impacting overall profitability.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| KRT Return | - | - | -27% | 82% | 29% | -22% | 33% |
| Peers Return | 16% | 14% | 1% | -1% | -5% | 8% | 35% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| KRT Win Rate | - | 62% | 42% | 75% | 58% | 20% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 58% | 45% | 42% | 47% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| KRT Max Drawdown | - | - | -34% | -11% | -8% | -27% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -36% | -8% | -22% | -17% | -15% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SLGN, GEF, OI, TRS, BALL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | KRT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -49.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 99.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 158 days | 464 days |
Compare to SLGN, GEF, OI, TRS, BALL
In The Past
Karat Packaging's stock fell -49.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/26/2021. A -49.7% loss requires a 99.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Would You Still Hold Karat Packaging Stock If It Fell Another 30%? | Return | |
| Karat Packaging (KRT) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | |
| Karat Packaging (KRT) Net Income Comparison | Financials | |
| Karat Packaging (KRT) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | |
| Karat Packaging (KRT) Revenue Comparison | Financials |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to KRT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Karat Packaging
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 36.72 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.0 |
| Rev LTM | 6,206 |
| Op Inc LTM | 555 |
| FCF LTM | 67 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 78 |
| CFO LTM | 431 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 517 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.0 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/EBIT | 9.9 |
| P/E | 18.8 |
| P/CFO | 12.4 |
| Total Yield | 7.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| D/E | 0.7 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -0.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -12.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | -2.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -12.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -15.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -25.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -75.4% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3142025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8112022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5122022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3312022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11122021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
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