Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -1.3%, Dist 3Y High is -1.3%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 117x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 95x
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Global Industrial Base Materials. Themes include Metallurgical Coal Production.
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -12%
2   Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.6%
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Global Industrial Base Materials. Themes include Metallurgical Coal Production.
2 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -1.3%, Dist 3Y High is -1.3%
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 117x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 95x
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -12%
5 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.6%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

HCC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The stock of Warrior Met Coal (HCC) experienced a significant movement, with a 35.8% increase, from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025. This rise can be attributed to several key factors.

1. Early Commencement of Blue Creek Longwall Operations: Warrior Met Coal announced on November 5, 2025, the commencement of longwall operations at its transformational Blue Creek mine, eight months ahead of schedule and on budget. This early start is a significant operational advancement, enhancing production capacity and is expected to have a massive impact on Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow going forward.

2. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Beat and Raised Guidance: The company reported its third-quarter 2025 results on November 5, 2025. Despite challenging market conditions leading to a slight decrease in net income year-over-year, Warrior Met Coal reported diluted earnings per share of $0.70, significantly beating the consensus estimate of ($0.09). Total revenues of $328.6 million also surpassed the estimated $304.33 million. In conjunction with these results, the company raised its full-year 2025 production and sales volume guidance by approximately 10%, reflecting improved operational capabilities.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
HCC Return2%22%41%82%-10%45%316%
Peers Return-6%49%24%40%33%43%364%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
HCC Win Rate58%58%58%58%58%60% 
Peers Win Rate47%55%57%53%60%62% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
HCC Max Drawdown-53%-26%-2%-7%-14%-25% 
Peers Max Drawdown-51%-8%-19%-7%-15%-12% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NWPX, FRD, NUE, STLD, CRS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventHCCS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-38.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven62.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven122 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-57.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven135.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven285 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-37.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven59.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven793 days120 days

Compare to NWPX, FRD, NUE, STLD, CRS


In The Past

Warrior Met Coal's stock fell -38.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/24/2021. A -38.4% loss requires a 62.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Warrior Met Coal (HCC)

Better Bets than Warrior Met Coal (HCC)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to HCC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Warrior Met Coal

Peers to compare with:

Financials

HCCNWPXFRDNUESTLDCRSMedian
NameWarrior .NWPX Inf.Friedman.Nucor Steel Dy.Carpente. 
Mkt Price82.9259.4319.59164.71171.50310.45123.81
Mkt Cap4.40.60.138.025.215.610.0
Rev LTM1,22452046530,80617,6352,8932,058
Op Inc LTM748112,1431,519561305
FCF LTM-1594811-38531126930
FCF 3Y Avg4922253,1151,018162105
CFO LTM20767173,1301,524439323
CFO 3Y Avg47244345,8422,562282377

Growth & Margins

HCCNWPXFRDNUESTLDCRSMedian
NameWarrior .NWPX Inf.Friedman.Nucor Steel Dy.Carpente. 
Rev Chg LTM-23.1%7.6%-5.8%-5.8%-1.5%2.4%-3.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-11.8%4.8%8.6%-10.4%-8.0%14.6%-1.6%
Rev Chg Q0.3%16.0%17.7%4.7%11.2%2.2%8.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.1%4.2%4.5%1.2%2.8%0.6%2.0%
Op Mgn LTM0.6%9.3%2.4%7.0%8.6%19.4%7.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg19.3%9.0%2.9%13.9%13.7%13.6%13.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.5%0.3%1.8%-0.0%0.5%1.1%0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM16.9%13.0%3.7%10.2%8.6%15.2%11.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg30.4%9.0%6.6%17.0%13.8%9.9%11.9%
FCF/Rev LTM-13.0%9.3%2.5%-1.2%1.8%9.3%2.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg1.9%4.4%4.9%8.7%5.4%5.7%5.1%

Valuation

HCCNWPXFRDNUESTLDCRSMedian
NameWarrior .NWPX Inf.Friedman.Nucor Steel Dy.Carpente. 
Mkt Cap4.40.60.138.025.215.610.0
P/S2.71.00.21.01.24.31.1
P/EBIT116.910.68.213.713.821.513.8
P/E95.214.013.523.118.229.720.6
P/CFO16.17.66.79.513.428.011.5
Total Yield1.6%7.2%7.7%6.1%6.9%3.7%6.5%
Dividend Yield0.5%0.0%0.2%1.7%1.4%0.3%0.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.1%4.9%26.5%7.7%5.6%1.7%5.3%
D/E0.10.30.30.20.20.10.2
Net D/E-0.00.30.30.10.10.00.1

Returns

HCCNWPXFRDNUESTLDCRSMedian
NameWarrior .NWPX Inf.Friedman.Nucor Steel Dy.Carpente. 
1M Rtn19.3%-7.0%-12.4%11.2%10.0%-0.1%4.9%
3M Rtn49.0%15.6%-7.2%13.9%32.8%31.8%23.7%
6M Rtn75.5%49.2%17.0%36.3%28.0%26.1%32.1%
12M Rtn19.5%5.8%24.5%8.2%21.6%61.7%20.5%
3Y Rtn123.3%60.7%124.4%11.6%63.7%644.2%93.5%
1M Excs Rtn19.4%-6.9%-12.4%11.2%10.0%-0.1%5.0%
3M Excs Rtn45.2%8.5%-12.5%8.8%26.2%24.0%16.4%
6M Excs Rtn60.8%34.5%2.3%21.6%13.3%11.4%17.4%
12M Excs Rtn5.0%-7.5%16.3%-5.2%6.4%47.1%5.7%
3Y Excs Rtn80.6%-10.6%47.3%-56.1%1.5%630.3%24.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Mining1,6481,7081,0287621,236
All other2931312132
Total1,6771,7391,0597831,268


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Mining1,819    
All other538    
Total2,357    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,250,361
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-5.8%
Average Daily Volume1,199,061
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.38
Basic Shares Quantity52,594,000
Short % of Basic Shares10.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025430202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024213202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024501202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023214202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231101202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022215202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021222202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Richardson Jack K.CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER5232025Buy46.431,81584,2708,772,159Form