Warrior Met Coal (HCC)
Market Price (6/20/2026): $90.44 | Market Cap: $4.8 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Steel
Warrior Met Coal (HCC)
Market Price (6/20/2026): $90.44Market Cap: $4.8 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Steel
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Industrial Base Materials. Themes include Metallurgical Coal Production. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 30x Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.8% Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.2% Key risksHCC key risks include [1] operational challenges with its significant Blue Creek expansion project and [2] labor relations. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Industrial Base Materials. Themes include Metallurgical Coal Production. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 30x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.8% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.2% |
| Key risksHCC key risks include [1] operational challenges with its significant Blue Creek expansion project and [2] labor relations. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Updated on 6/9/2026
Warrior Met Coal (HCC) stock has gained about 10% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Warrior Met Coal reported robust financial and operational results for fiscal Q1 2026, despite an earnings per share (EPS) miss, signaling strong underlying business fundamentals. The company's net income for fiscal Q1 2026 surged to $72.3 million, or $1.37 per diluted share, a significant turnaround from a net loss of $8.2 million, or $0.16 per diluted share, in fiscal Q1 2025. Total revenues increased by 53% to $458.6 million in fiscal Q1 2026, up from $299.9 million in the prior year, driven by a 38% increase in sales volumes and a 10% rise in the average net selling price per short ton. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter also saw a substantial 263% increase, reaching $143.4 million compared to $39.5 million in fiscal Q1 2025.
2. The successful completion and ramp-up of the Blue Creek mine significantly boosted production capabilities and reduced costs. Warrior Met Coal completed the construction of its Blue Creek mine ahead of schedule and within its budget of just over $1 billion, which was fully funded from cash operations without incurring any debt. This transformative project led to record quarterly sales volumes of 3.0 million short tons and production volumes of 3.5 million short tons in fiscal Q1 2026, representing increases of 38% and 55% year-over-year, respectively. Furthermore, the inherent lower-cost structure of Blue Creek and a benefit from the Section 45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credit contributed to a 14% reduction in cash cost of sales per short ton, bringing it to $96.17.
Show more
Warrior Met Coal (HCC) stock has gained about 10% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Warrior Met Coal reported robust financial and operational results for fiscal Q1 2026, despite an earnings per share (EPS) miss, signaling strong underlying business fundamentals. The company's net income for fiscal Q1 2026 surged to $72.3 million, or $1.37 per diluted share, a significant turnaround from a net loss of $8.2 million, or $0.16 per diluted share, in fiscal Q1 2025. Total revenues increased by 53% to $458.6 million in fiscal Q1 2026, up from $299.9 million in the prior year, driven by a 38% increase in sales volumes and a 10% rise in the average net selling price per short ton. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter also saw a substantial 263% increase, reaching $143.4 million compared to $39.5 million in fiscal Q1 2025.
2. The successful completion and ramp-up of the Blue Creek mine significantly boosted production capabilities and reduced costs. Warrior Met Coal completed the construction of its Blue Creek mine ahead of schedule and within its budget of just over $1 billion, which was fully funded from cash operations without incurring any debt. This transformative project led to record quarterly sales volumes of 3.0 million short tons and production volumes of 3.5 million short tons in fiscal Q1 2026, representing increases of 38% and 55% year-over-year, respectively. Furthermore, the inherent lower-cost structure of Blue Creek and a benefit from the Section 45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credit contributed to a 14% reduction in cash cost of sales per short ton, bringing it to $96.17.
Show more
Updated on 6/9/2026
Warrior Met Coal (HCC) stock has gained about 10% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Warrior Met Coal reported robust financial and operational results for fiscal Q1 2026, despite an earnings per share (EPS) miss, signaling strong underlying business fundamentals. The company's net income for fiscal Q1 2026 surged to $72.3 million, or $1.37 per diluted share, a significant turnaround from a net loss of $8.2 million, or $0.16 per diluted share, in fiscal Q1 2025. Total revenues increased by 53% to $458.6 million in fiscal Q1 2026, up from $299.9 million in the prior year, driven by a 38% increase in sales volumes and a 10% rise in the average net selling price per short ton. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter also saw a substantial 263% increase, reaching $143.4 million compared to $39.5 million in fiscal Q1 2025.
2. The successful completion and ramp-up of the Blue Creek mine significantly boosted production capabilities and reduced costs. Warrior Met Coal completed the construction of its Blue Creek mine ahead of schedule and within its budget of just over $1 billion, which was fully funded from cash operations without incurring any debt. This transformative project led to record quarterly sales volumes of 3.0 million short tons and production volumes of 3.5 million short tons in fiscal Q1 2026, representing increases of 38% and 55% year-over-year, respectively. Furthermore, the inherent lower-cost structure of Blue Creek and a benefit from the Section 45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credit contributed to a 14% reduction in cash cost of sales per short ton, bringing it to $96.17.
3. Favorable metallurgical coal market conditions, supported by sustained demand and supply constraints, contributed to higher pricing. The global coal market exhibited a bullish trend in fiscal Q1 2026, characterized by robust steelmaking demand and persistent supply tightness, particularly from weather disruptions in Australia and various export curbs. Geopolitical tensions, notably the Middle East conflict, further exacerbated supply chain disruptions and led to elevated seaborne freight rates, indirectly bolstering metallurgical coal prices. The Platts Premium Low-Vol Hard Coking Coal FOB Australia index reached an over-one-and-a-half-year high of $252.50/metric ton on February 4, 2026, and closed fiscal Q1 2026 at $236.80/metric ton, an increase of $18.80/metric ton from the start of the quarter.
4. Management's reaffirmation of its full-year 2026 guidance and potential for renewed shareholder returns instilled investor confidence. Despite a negative free cash flow in fiscal Q1 2026 primarily due to working capital build and final Blue Creek capital expenditures, Warrior Met Coal's management reaffirmed its full-year 2026 outlook and guidance. The company indicated that it expects free cash flow to turn positive in fiscal Q2 2026. Management also communicated plans to resume shareholder returns, including a rising fixed quarterly dividend, special dividends, and selective share buybacks, in the second half of 2026 once positive free cash flow is established.
Show less
Warrior Met Coal (HCC) stock has gained about 10% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Warrior Met Coal reported robust financial and operational results for fiscal Q1 2026, despite an earnings per share (EPS) miss, signaling strong underlying business fundamentals. The company's net income for fiscal Q1 2026 surged to $72.3 million, or $1.37 per diluted share, a significant turnaround from a net loss of $8.2 million, or $0.16 per diluted share, in fiscal Q1 2025. Total revenues increased by 53% to $458.6 million in fiscal Q1 2026, up from $299.9 million in the prior year, driven by a 38% increase in sales volumes and a 10% rise in the average net selling price per short ton. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter also saw a substantial 263% increase, reaching $143.4 million compared to $39.5 million in fiscal Q1 2025.
2. The successful completion and ramp-up of the Blue Creek mine significantly boosted production capabilities and reduced costs. Warrior Met Coal completed the construction of its Blue Creek mine ahead of schedule and within its budget of just over $1 billion, which was fully funded from cash operations without incurring any debt. This transformative project led to record quarterly sales volumes of 3.0 million short tons and production volumes of 3.5 million short tons in fiscal Q1 2026, representing increases of 38% and 55% year-over-year, respectively. Furthermore, the inherent lower-cost structure of Blue Creek and a benefit from the Section 45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credit contributed to a 14% reduction in cash cost of sales per short ton, bringing it to $96.17.
3. Favorable metallurgical coal market conditions, supported by sustained demand and supply constraints, contributed to higher pricing. The global coal market exhibited a bullish trend in fiscal Q1 2026, characterized by robust steelmaking demand and persistent supply tightness, particularly from weather disruptions in Australia and various export curbs. Geopolitical tensions, notably the Middle East conflict, further exacerbated supply chain disruptions and led to elevated seaborne freight rates, indirectly bolstering metallurgical coal prices. The Platts Premium Low-Vol Hard Coking Coal FOB Australia index reached an over-one-and-a-half-year high of $252.50/metric ton on February 4, 2026, and closed fiscal Q1 2026 at $236.80/metric ton, an increase of $18.80/metric ton from the start of the quarter.
4. Management's reaffirmation of its full-year 2026 guidance and potential for renewed shareholder returns instilled investor confidence. Despite a negative free cash flow in fiscal Q1 2026 primarily due to working capital build and final Blue Creek capital expenditures, Warrior Met Coal's management reaffirmed its full-year 2026 outlook and guidance. The company indicated that it expects free cash flow to turn positive in fiscal Q2 2026. Management also communicated plans to resume shareholder returns, including a rising fixed quarterly dividend, special dividends, and selective share buybacks, in the second half of 2026 once positive free cash flow is established.
Show less
Holding a concentrated position? Know your true downside before the momentum shifts.
Protect Your Wealth →
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 8.9% change in HCC stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 115.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 83.17 | 90.58 | 8.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,310 | 1,469 | 12.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.4% | 9.4% | 115.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 76.7 | 34.7 | -54.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 53 | 53 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 8.9% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HCC | 8.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.2% | -1.3% |
| Sector (XLB) | -2.6% | 11.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 15.9% change in HCC stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 225.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 78.15 | 90.58 | 15.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,224 | 1,469 | 20.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.9% | 9.4% | 225.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 116.9 | 34.7 | -70.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 53 | 53 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 15.9% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HCC | 15.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | 6.9% |
| Sector (XLB) | 17.0% | 20.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 100.1% change in HCC stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 54.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 45.26 | 90.58 | 100.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,322 | 1,469 | 11.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.0% | 9.4% | 17.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.5 | 34.7 | 54.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 52 | 53 | -0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 100.1% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HCC | 100.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 28.1% | 11.1% |
| Sector (XLB) | 22.4% | 22.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 183.3% change in HCC stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 1319.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 31.98 | 90.58 | 183.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,870 | 1,469 | -21.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 36.2% | 9.4% | -74.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 2.4 | 34.7 | 1319.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 52 | 53 | -1.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 183.3% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HCC | 183.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 85.7% | 21.4% |
| Sector (XLB) | 46.5% | 30.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HCC Return | 22% | 41% | 82% | -10% | 63% | 8% | 397% |
| Peers Return | 339% | 87% | 38% | -22% | 23% | -3% | 962% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HCC Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 58% | 58% | 67% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 48% | 54% | 35% | 50% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HCC Max Drawdown | -38% | -36% | -23% | -29% | -29% | -24% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -34% | -31% | -39% | -45% | -53% | -40% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AMR, BTU, METC, SXC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/18/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HCC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -18.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 20 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -14.7% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.2% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 83 days | 18 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -12.7% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.5% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 20 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -50.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 101.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 174 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 65 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -13.7% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.9% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 20 days | 6 days |
In The Past
Warrior Met Coal's stock fell -18.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 22.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | HCC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -50.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 101.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 174 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 65 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Warrior Met Coal's stock fell -18.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 22.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Warrior Met Coal (HCC)
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) is a U.S.-based company specializing in the production and export of non-thermal metallurgical coal. Operating two underground mines located in Alabama, the company primarily extracts this specific type of coal, which is essential for the steel manufacturing process.
The metallurgical coal produced by Warrior Met Coal is sold to blast furnace steel producers, with its primary customer base situated in international markets such as Europe, South America, and Asia. Beyond its core coal operations, the company also generates revenue from selling natural gas, which is a byproduct of its coal extraction activities.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Warrior Met Coal (HCC):
- Warrior Met Coal is like BHP Group or Rio Tinto, but exclusively mines the metallurgical (coking) coal essential for steel production globally.
- Warrior Met Coal is like Peabody Energy, but focuses entirely on digging up the high-grade metallurgical coal used in steel mills, not the thermal coal for power plants.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Non-thermal Metallurgical Coal: This is the primary product, used by blast furnace steel producers for steel manufacturing.
- Natural Gas: A byproduct extracted during the coal production process, which the company also sells.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Warrior Met Coal (HCC) sells its metallurgical coal to a diversified customer base of blast furnace steel producers. The company does not disclose specific customer names, as no single customer accounts for 10% or more of its total consolidated revenues.
Its customers can be categorized as:
- Blast furnace steel producers in Europe
- Blast furnace steel producers in South America
- Blast furnace steel producers in Asia
AI Analysis | Feedback
- CSX Transportation, Inc. (CSX)
- McDuffie Coal Terminal
AI Analysis | Feedback
```html
Walter J. Scheller III, Chief Executive Officer and Director
Mr. Scheller was appointed Chief Executive Officer of Warrior Met Coal in March 2016. Prior to this, he served as CEO of Walter Energy, Inc. from September 2011 to March 2016, during which certain mining assets of Walter Energy were acquired by Warrior Met Coal, LLC, the company's predecessor. He also held the role of President and Chief Operating Officer of Jim Walter Resources, Inc., a primary subsidiary of Walter Energy, from June 2010 to September 2011. His career spans over 40 years, including senior management and operational positions at Peabody Energy Corporation (Senior Vice President – Strategic Operations), CNX Gas Corporation (Vice President), and CONSOL Energy Inc. (various executive and operational roles, including Vice President – Operations).
Dale W. Boyles, Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Boyles has served as Chief Financial Officer of Warrior Met Coal since January 2017. From November to December 2016, he provided consulting services to Warrior Met Coal, LLC. Previously, he was the Chief Financial Officer of Noranda Aluminum Holding Corporation from November 2013 to November 2016, where he oversaw its voluntary reorganization under Chapter 11 of the Bankruptcy Code in 2016. From 2006 to June 2012, Mr. Boyles held several positions at Hanesbrands, Inc., including Operating Chief Financial Officer, Interim Chief Financial Officer, and Vice President, Controller, and Chief Accounting Officer. He also has experience as an Audit Partner at KPMG LLP and as Corporate Division Controller for Collins & Aikman Corporation.
Jack K. Richardson, Chief Operating Officer
Mr. Richardson serves as the Chief Operating Officer of Warrior Met Coal.
Kelli K. Gant, Chief Administrative Officer and Corporate Secretary
Ms. Gant holds the titles of Chief Administrative Officer and Corporate Secretary for Warrior Met Coal.
Charles Lussier, Chief Commercial Officer
Mr. Lussier is the Chief Commercial Officer at Warrior Met Coal.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Warrior Met Coal's business are:
-
Dependence on the Steelmaking Coal Market and Price Volatility
Warrior Met Coal is a pure-play producer of metallurgical coal, making its revenue and profitability highly susceptible to fluctuations in global steel demand and met coal prices. Downturns in the steel industry, changes in global economic conditions, or oversupply in the market could adversely impact demand and pricing for its product. -
Structural Decarbonization and Environmental/Regulatory Risks
The long-term global push towards decarbonization and increasingly stringent environmental regulations on fossil fuels pose a fundamental threat to the coal industry, including metallurgical coal. This could lead to reduced demand for coal in steelmaking over time, increased compliance costs, and potential disruptions to operations. -
Trade and Geopolitical Risks
As a company that exports its metallurgical coal primarily to Europe, South America, and Asia, Warrior Met Coal is exposed to global trade policies, tariffs, and geopolitical instabilities. For instance, trade tensions, such as those between the US and China, can significantly impact the competitiveness and volume of its exports. Fluctuations in currency exchange rates also affect the cost-effectiveness of its products for international buyers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The clear emerging threat for Warrior Met Coal is the global steel industry's accelerating transition towards "green steel" production methods, particularly hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron (H-DRI). This technology aims to produce steel without using coking coal in the ironmaking process, fundamentally disrupting the primary demand driver for metallurgical coal. Significant investments and pilot projects are underway globally to scale these technologies, posing a long-term existential threat to companies reliant on traditional blast furnace steel production.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) primarily produces and exports non-thermal metallurgical coal for the steel industry. The company sells its metallurgical coal to customers mainly located in Europe, South America, and Asia. It also sells natural gas, which is extracted as a byproduct from coal production.
Addressable Market Sizes for Metallurgical Coal:
The global metallurgical coal market is a significant addressable market for Warrior Met Coal. In 2025, the global metallurgical coal market size was valued at approximately between USD 81 billion and USD 126.35 billion, with projections indicating growth to USD 166.34 billion by 2034 at a CAGR of 3.06% during 2026-2034. As of 2024, global metallurgical coal production stands at approximately 1.2 billion metric tons annually, with consumption closely matching this figure. Global consumption of metallurgical coal is projected to reach approximately 1,114 million tonnes in 2025.
- Asia (Asia-Pacific): The Asia-Pacific region represents the largest addressable market for metallurgical coal. The market in this region was valued at an estimated USD 41.70 billion in 2025. Asia-Pacific is estimated to contribute 60.3% to the growth of the global market. The region consumes over 700 million metric tons of metallurgical coal annually. China, a major consumer within Asia-Pacific, consumed over 676 million tonnes of coking coal in 2023.
- Europe: The European metallurgical coal market is a key addressable region, with a valuation of approximately USD 24.06 billion in 2025. Europe has a stable annual metallurgical coal consumption of around 55 million metric tons, importing more than 30 million metric tons each year to meet its steel industry demands. In 2023, coke ovens in 13 EU countries consumed 37 million tonnes of coking coal.
- South America (Latin America): The Latin America metallurgical coal market was valued at an estimated USD 13.70 billion in 2025.
Addressable Market Size for Natural Gas (byproduct):
The provided information does not readily quantify a specific addressable market size for natural gas extracted as a byproduct from Warrior Met Coal's operations. The market data predominantly focuses on metallurgical coal for steel production, and the natural gas byproduct is mentioned as a secondary product without specific market sizing details in the context of Warrior Met Coal's overall business.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for Warrior Met Coal (HCC) over the next 2-3 years:
- Ramp-up and Full Production of the Blue Creek Mine: The commissioning of the Blue Creek mine's longwall operations, which began ahead of schedule in October 2025, is expected to be completed in early 2026. This transformational mine is anticipated to increase Warrior Met Coal's total production capacity by approximately 75%, contributing significantly to sales volumes. The company expects 2026 sales volumes to increase by more than 30% and production volumes by more than 20% compared to 2025, largely due to Blue Creek's full-year contribution.
- Increased Sales and Production Volumes: Driven by the Blue Creek mine and continued strong performance from existing operations, Warrior Met Coal has already achieved record sales and production volumes. Total sales volume for 2025 reached 9.6 million short tons, a 21% increase over the prior year, while production volume hit a record 10.2 million short tons, up 24% from 2024. The company forecasts total sales and production volumes to be "significantly higher" in 2026, aiming for 12.5-13.5 million short tons in sales and 12.0-13.0 million short tons in production.
- Favorable Metallurgical Coal Market Conditions and Pricing: Although global steelmaking coal markets have faced challenges, Warrior Met Coal's expanded capacity and lower cost structure position it to capitalize on any market improvements. While the company anticipates markets to remain consistent with 2025 levels, any strengthening in metallurgical coal prices would directly enhance revenue due to the company's increased sales volumes.
- Enhanced Cost Efficiency from Blue Creek: The Blue Creek mine is expected to contribute to a structurally lower cost base for Warrior Met Coal, improving its global cost curve positioning and generating incremental profit and cash flows. This improved cost efficiency allows the company to maintain strong margins even in volatile markets and ensures profitability as volumes increase, indirectly driving revenue growth by strengthening the company's competitive position.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Warrior Met Coal reported significant share repurchases, with the largest being $919.66 million as of March 31, 2023.
- The company executed quarterly buybacks of $12.00 million on March 31, 2024, and $9.38 million on March 31, 2025.
- As of December 31, 2025, quarterly stock buybacks amounted to $48.77 million.
Outbound Investments
- Warrior Met Coal secured 58 million short tons of high-quality steelmaking coal reserves through a federal coal lease sale, expanding its reserve base and extending the life of its core mining operations.
Capital Expenditures
- In 2024, capital expenditures and mine development for the Blue Creek growth project amounted to $488.3 million.
- For 2025, the company projected sustaining capital expenditures of approximately $90-$100 million and discretionary capital spending of $225-$250 million for Blue Creek development.
- Total Blue Creek project capital expenditures are estimated to be between $995 million and $1.075 billion, with the majority of the remaining investment expected by the end of the first quarter of 2026.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 24.80 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.4 |
| Rev LTM | 1,856 |
| Op Inc LTM | -32 |
| FCF LTM | -135 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 109 |
| CFO LTM | 156 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 364 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -7.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -6.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -128.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -81.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -1.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -4.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.4 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/Op Inc | -12.5 |
| P/EBIT | -13.0 |
| P/E | -14.2 |
| P/CFO | 12.4 |
| Total Yield | -2.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.1% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $90.58 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 4.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/13/2017 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -17.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $91.09 | $82.60 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -0.6% | 9.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 61.6% | 57.0% |
| Downside Capture | -34.18 | 37.16 |
| Upside Capture | -10.07 | 103.66 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -1.3% | 11.9% |
HCC Betas & Captures as of 5/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.19 | -0.68 | -0.35 | 0.16 | 0.47 | 0.69 |
| Up Beta | 3.62 | -0.43 | -0.40 | -0.43 | 0.23 | 0.57 |
| Down Beta | 2.78 | 2.06 | 1.37 | 0.90 | 0.53 | 0.84 |
| Up Capture | 38% | -48% | -31% | 30% | 92% | 59% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 20 | 32 | 66 | 133 | 393 |
| Down Capture | -78% | -300% | -163% | -15% | 14% | 79% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 21 | 31 | 58 | 117 | 356 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HCC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HCC | 95.2% | 57.4% | 1.36 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 21.2% | 17.5% | 0.94 | 22.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 26.5% | 12.4% | 1.61 | 11.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.2% | 27.5% | 0.77 | 12.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.8% | 18.8% | 0.83 | 16.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.0% | 13.7% | 0.52 | 10.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -40.0% | 42.5% | -1.08 | 11.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HCC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HCC | 41.4% | 49.6% | 0.87 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 5.9% | 19.0% | 0.20 | 34.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.1% | 0.62 | 23.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.1% | 18.3% | 0.76 | 15.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 19.4% | 0.29 | 29.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.9% | 18.9% | 0.00 | 18.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.0% | 54.2% | 0.40 | 12.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HCC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HCC | 29.9% | 52.5% | 0.75 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 10.2% | 20.7% | 0.44 | 40.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 31.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.3% | 16.1% | 0.63 | 9.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.9% | 18.0% | 0.26 | 30.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 23.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.0% | 66.8% | 1.00 | 12.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/12/2026 | 0.2% | -1.3% | -1.5% |
| 11/5/2025 | 23.1% | 27.4% | 19.8% |
| 8/6/2025 | 8.8% | 16.6% | 10.8% |
| 4/30/2025 | -5.0% | -4.0% | -4.8% |
| 2/13/2025 | -8.4% | -14.6% | -10.5% |
| 10/30/2024 | 2.2% | 19.8% | 14.0% |
| 8/1/2024 | -4.3% | -6.1% | -5.4% |
| 5/1/2024 | -3.5% | -4.4% | 0.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 7 | 14 |
| # Negative | 14 | 16 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.3% | 16.6% | 11.2% |
| Median Negative | -5.1% | -6.0% | -10.5% |
| Max Positive | 23.1% | 27.4% | 34.5% |
| Max Negative | -22.6% | -20.6% | -36.6% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/12/2026 | 0.2% | -1.3% | -1.5% |
| 11/5/2025 | 23.1% | 27.4% | 19.8% |
| 8/6/2025 | 8.8% | 16.6% | 10.8% |
| 4/30/2025 | -5.0% | -4.0% | -4.8% |
| 2/13/2025 | -8.4% | -14.6% | -10.5% |
| 10/30/2024 | 2.2% | 19.8% | 14.0% |
| 8/1/2024 | -4.3% | -6.1% | -5.4% |
| 5/1/2024 | -3.5% | -4.4% | 0.9% |
| 2/14/2024 | -3.3% | -5.1% | -10.6% |
| 11/1/2023 | -1.9% | -8.1% | 17.6% |
| 8/2/2023 | -11.7% | -6.5% | -8.5% |
| 5/3/2023 | 6.5% | 17.1% | 4.5% |
| 2/15/2023 | -1.0% | -6.2% | -15.9% |
| 11/2/2022 | 3.6% | -2.8% | 6.9% |
| 8/3/2022 | -9.6% | -1.3% | 4.1% |
| 5/5/2022 | -5.2% | -6.0% | 10.2% |
| 2/22/2022 | 0.1% | 6.6% | 23.5% |
| 11/2/2021 | -5.5% | -12.0% | -11.8% |
| 8/4/2021 | 3.3% | 2.5% | 34.5% |
| 5/5/2021 | -5.0% | -7.2% | 11.6% |
| 2/24/2021 | -22.6% | -20.6% | -36.6% |
| 10/28/2020 | 0.8% | 9.6% | 29.9% |
| 8/5/2020 | -6.1% | -2.5% | 0.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 7 | 14 |
| # Negative | 14 | 16 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.3% | 16.6% | 11.2% |
| Median Negative | -5.1% | -6.0% | -10.5% |
| Max Positive | 23.1% | 27.4% | 34.5% |
| Max Negative | -22.6% | -20.6% | -36.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/13/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/14/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/15/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/13/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/14/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/15/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/22/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/02/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/24/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/28/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/19/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/30/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 07/31/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 6/8/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Coal sales | 12.50 Mil | 13.00 Mil | 13.50 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 13.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Coal production | 12.00 Mil | 12.50 Mil | 13.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 12.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Cash cost of sales (free-on-board port) | 95 | 102 | 110 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 102 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures for sustaining existing mines | 105.00 Mil | 110.00 Mil | 115.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 110.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures for Blue Creek project | 50.00 Mil | 62.50 Mil | 75.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 62.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Depreciation and depletion | 225.00 Mil | 237.50 Mil | 250.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 237.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Selling, general and administrative expenses | 75.00 Mil | 80.00 Mil | 85.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 80.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Interest expense | 20.00 Mil | 22.50 Mil | 25.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 22.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Interest income | 3.00 Mil | 5.50 Mil | 8.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.50 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Coal sales | 12.50 Mil | 13.00 Mil | 13.50 Mil | 38.3% | Higher New | Actual: 9.40 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Coal production | 12.00 Mil | 12.50 Mil | 13.00 Mil | 30.2% | Higher New | Actual: 9.60 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Cash cost of sales (free-on-board port) | 95 | 102 | 110 | -4.7% | Lower New | Actual: 108 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures for sustaining existing mines | 105.00 Mil | 110.00 Mil | 115.00 Mil | 15.8% | Higher New | Actual: 95.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures for Blue Creek project | 50.00 Mil | 62.50 Mil | 75.00 Mil | -73.7% | Lower New | Actual: 237.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Depreciation and depletion | 225.00 Mil | 237.50 Mil | 250.00 Mil | 20.3% | Higher New | Actual: 197.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Selling, general and administrative expenses | 75.00 Mil | 80.00 Mil | 85.00 Mil | 14.3% | Higher New | Actual: 70.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Interest expense | 20.00 Mil | 22.50 Mil | 25.00 Mil | 80.0% | Higher New | Actual: 12.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Interest income | 3.00 Mil | 5.50 Mil | 8.00 Mil | -68.6% | Lower New | Actual: 17.50 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 6/4/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gant, Kelli K | See remarks | Direct | Sell | 6042026 | 110.00 | 20,000 | 2,200,000 | 7,455,250 | Form |
| 2 | Scheller, Walter J | CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 1132026 | 100.31 | 100,000 | 10,031,000 | 29,509,497 | Form |
| 3 | Gant, Kelli K | See remarks | Direct | Sell | 1132026 | 100.00 | 10,000 | 1,000,000 | 7,058,000 | Form |
| 4 | Chopin, Brian M | CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 11142025 | 80.54 | 1,498 | 120,649 | 1,596,625 | Form |
| 5 | Chopin, Brian M | CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 11142025 | 84.75 | 585 | 49,579 | 1,807,040 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gant, Kelli K | See remarks | Direct | Sell | 6042026 | 110.00 | 20,000 | 2,200,000 | 7,455,250 | Form |
| 2 | Scheller, Walter J | CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 1132026 | 100.31 | 100,000 | 10,031,000 | 29,509,497 | Form |
| 3 | Gant, Kelli K | See remarks | Direct | Sell | 1132026 | 100.00 | 10,000 | 1,000,000 | 7,058,000 | Form |
| 4 | Chopin, Brian M | CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 11142025 | 80.54 | 1,498 | 120,649 | 1,596,625 | Form |
| 5 | Chopin, Brian M | CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 11142025 | 84.75 | 585 | 49,579 | 1,807,040 | Form |
| 6 | Scheller, Walter J | CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 11072025 | 75.00 | 18,966 | 1,422,450 | 29,563,725 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Materials Resources |
| Chemical & Engineering News (C&EN) |
| Mining.com |
| Plastics News |
| Steel Resources |
| SteelOrbis |
| World Steel Association |
| Kallanish Commodities |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.
Core Cache Last Updated: 6/19/2026