Tearsheet

Warrior Met Coal (HCC)

Market Price (4/22/2026): $90.59 | Market Cap: $4.8 Bil
Sector: Materials | Industry: Steel

Warrior Met Coal (HCC)

Market Price (4/22/2026): $90.59
Market Cap: $4.8 Bil
Sector: Materials
Industry: Steel

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Global Industrial Base Materials. Themes include Metallurgical Coal Production.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -5.7%

Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 74x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 84x

Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.9%

Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.7%

Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.5%

Key risks
HCC key risks include [1] operational challenges with its significant Blue Creek expansion project and [2] labor relations.

0	Attractive cash flow generation CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%
1	Megatrend and thematic drivers Megatrends include Global Industrial Base Materials. Themes include Metallurgical Coal Production.
2	Weak multi-year price returns 2Y Excs Rtn is -5.7%
3	Expensive valuation multiples P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 74x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 84x
4	Weak revenue growth Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.9%
5	Not cash flow generative FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.7%
6	Yield minus risk free rate is negative ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.5%
7	Key risks HCC key risks include [1] operational challenges with its significant Blue Creek expansion project and [2] labor relations.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

	4/22/26	2025	2024	2023	2022
Share Price CYE	$90.59	$88.17	$54.24	$60.97	$34.64
Market Cap CYE ($ Bil)	4.8	4.6	2.9	3.2	1.8
Total Debt ($ Bil)	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.3
Total Cash ($ Bil)	0.4	0.4	0.5	0.7	0.8
Enterprise Value ($ Bil)	4.7	4.9	3.1	3.4	2.1
Valuation Ratios
P/S TTM	3.6	3.5	1.9	1.9	1.0
P/EBIT TTM	74.2	72.2	9.9	5.6	2.2
P/E TTM	83.6	81.4	11.4	6.6	2.8
P/FCF TTM	-47.5	-46.2	-31.8	15.1	2.8
Sector Ratios
P/S TTM (Sector)	1.9	1.6	1.4	1.4	1.1
P/EBIT TTM (Sector)	5.6	5.4	6.1	6.7	5.2
P/E TTM (Sector)	-0.5	-0.5	3.6	7.1	5.0
P/FCF TTM (Sector)	5.3	5.1	4.1	5.3	2.1

	4/22/26	2025	2024
Share Price CYE	$90.59	$88.17	$54.24
Market Cap CYE ($ Bil)	4.8	4.6	2.9
Total Debt ($ Bil)	0.3	0.3	0.2
Total Cash ($ Bil)	0.4	0.4	0.5
Enterprise Value ($ Bil)	4.7	4.9	3.1
Valuation Ratios
P/S TTM	3.6	3.5	1.9
P/EBIT TTM	74.2	72.2	9.9
P/E TTM	83.6	81.4	11.4
P/FCF TTM	-47.5	-46.2	-31.8
Sector Ratios
P/S TTM (Sector)	1.9	1.6	1.4
P/EBIT TTM (Sector)	5.6	5.4	6.1
P/E TTM (Sector)	-0.5	-0.5	3.6
P/FCF TTM (Sector)	5.3	5.1	4.1

	HCC	S&P 500
REVENUE GROWTH	POOR
Rev LTM ($ Bil)	1.3
Rev Chg Q	29.1%	7.5%
Rev Chg LTM	-14.1%	6.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg	-8.9%	5.7%
PROFITABILITY	VERY POOR
Op Inc LTM ($ Bil)	0.0
CFO LTM ($ Bil)	0.2
Net Inc LTM ($ Bil)	0.1
Op Mgn LTM	3.5%	18.6%
CFO/Rev LTM	17.5%	20.6%
Net Inc Mgn	4.4%	12.8%
VALUATION	VERY HIGH
P/S	3.6	3.3
P/CFO	20.8	15.7
P/FCF	-47.5	20.4
P/E	83.6	24.4
STABILITY	VERY GOOD
Debt/Equity	0.06	0.20
Cash/Assets	0.13	0.07

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Metric	Value	Date	Source
Sales Volume	2.4 million short tons	9302025	Link
Production Volume	2.3 million short tons	6302025	Link
Total Recordable Incident Rate (TRIR)	1.81 per 200,000 employee hours	12312023	Link
Coal Reserves (Proven and Probable)	175.4 million short tons	12312023	Link
Safety Incident Rate Improvement vs. Prior Year	19%	12312024	Link
Methane Capture Rate	74%	12312023	Link
Reduction in Scope 1 and 2 Emissions (from 2021 baseline)	33.5%	12312023	Link
Incidence Rate Lower Than National Rate	65%	9302024	Link

Upcoming
4/30/2026	Earnings Release	Rev: $476 Mil (E) EPS: $1.46 (E)

Price Chart

Return (1M):

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

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Warrior Met Coal (HCC) stock has gained about 5% since 12/31/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Strong Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial Performance.

Warrior Met Coal reported robust financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, significantly boosting investor confidence. For Q4 2025, total revenues surged by 29.1% year-over-year to $384.0 million, and net income attributable to common shareholders dramatically increased by 1,921.3% to $23.0 million. Additionally, Adjusted EBITDA saw a substantial 75% rise, reaching $92.9 million compared to the prior year's comparable quarter.

2. Blue Creek Mine Expansion Progress and Federal Lease Awards.

The company benefited from the early commencement of longwall operations at its highly anticipated Blue Creek mine in October 2025, eight months ahead of schedule and within budget. Furthermore, in January 2026, Warrior Met Coal's subsidiaries were awarded federal coal leases by the Bureau of Land Management, securing access to 53 million short tons of high-quality steelmaking coal reserves. This expansion is projected to increase the company's overall production capacity by 75% and is expected to significantly enhance future free cash flow.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 2.8% change in HCC stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 51.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).

(LTM values as of)	12312025	4212026	Change
Stock Price ($)	88.09	90.59	2.8%
Change Contribution By:
Total Revenues ($ Mil)	1,224	1,310	7.1%
Net Income Margin (%)	2.9%	4.4%	51.4%
P/E Multiple	131.7	83.6	-36.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)	53	53	0.0%
Cumulative Contribution			2.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/31/2025 to 4/21/2026

	Return	Correlation
HCC	2.8%
Market (SPY)	-5.4%	19.9%
Sector (XLB)	14.2%	19.3%

Fundamental Drivers

The 42.6% change in HCC stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 31.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).

(LTM values as of)	9302025	4212026	Change
Stock Price ($)	63.52	90.59	42.6%
Change Contribution By:
Total Revenues ($ Mil)	1,223	1,310	7.1%
Net Income Margin (%)	3.3%	4.4%	31.9%
P/E Multiple	82.8	83.6	0.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)	53	53	0.0%
Cumulative Contribution			42.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/30/2025 to 4/21/2026

	Return	Correlation
HCC	42.6%
Market (SPY)	-2.9%	19.3%
Sector (XLB)	16.1%	18.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The 90.8% change in HCC stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 737.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.

(LTM values as of)	3312025	4212026	Change
Stock Price ($)	47.48	90.59	90.8%
Change Contribution By:
Total Revenues ($ Mil)	1,525	1,310	-14.1%
Net Income Margin (%)	16.4%	4.4%	-73.5%
P/E Multiple	10.0	83.6	737.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)	53	53	0.1%
Cumulative Contribution			90.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2025 to 4/21/2026

	Return	Correlation
HCC	90.8%
Market (SPY)	16.3%	23.9%
Sector (XLB)	22.2%	29.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The 153.3% change in HCC stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 2801.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.

(LTM values as of)	3312023	4212026	Change
Stock Price ($)	35.77	90.59	153.3%
Change Contribution By:
Total Revenues ($ Mil)	1,739	1,310	-24.7%
Net Income Margin (%)	36.9%	4.4%	-88.2%
P/E Multiple	2.9	83.6	2801.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)	52	53	-1.8%
Cumulative Contribution			153.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2023 to 4/21/2026

	Return	Correlation
HCC	153.3%
Market (SPY)	63.3%	24.2%
Sector (XLB)	35.5%	32.3%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	Total [1]
Returns
HCC Return	22%	41%	82%	-10%	63%	-0%	359%
Peers Return	339%	87%	38%	-22%	23%	-12%	862%
S&P 500 Return	27%	-19%	24%	23%	16%	4%	89%
Monthly Win Rates [3]
HCC Win Rate	58%	58%	58%	58%	67%	50%
Peers Win Rate	62%	48%	54%	35%	50%	50%
S&P 500 Win Rate	75%	42%	67%	75%	67%	50%
Max Drawdowns [4]
HCC Max Drawdown	-26%	-2%	-7%	-14%	-25%	-12%
Peers Max Drawdown	-1%	-3%	-29%	-33%	-43%	-20%
S&P 500 Max Drawdown	-1%	-25%	-1%	-2%	-15%	-7%

[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AMR, BTU, METC, SXC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/21/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique Key	Event	HCC	S&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock	2022 Inflation Shock
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss	% Loss	-38.4%	-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven	% Gain to Breakeven	62.3%	34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to Breakeven	Time to Breakeven	122 days	464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic	2020 Covid Pandemic
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss	% Loss	-57.5%	-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven	% Gain to Breakeven	135.3%	51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to Breakeven	Time to Breakeven	285 days	148 days
2018 Correction	2018 Correction
2018 Correction% Loss	% Loss	-37.2%	-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven	% Gain to Breakeven	59.2%	24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to Breakeven	Time to Breakeven	793 days	120 days

Compare to AMR, BTU, METC, SXC

In The Past

Warrior Met Coal's stock fell -38.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/24/2021. A -38.4% loss requires a 62.3% gain to breakeven.

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About Warrior Met Coal (HCC)

Business Description Analogies Products Customers Suppliers Management Key Risks Emerging Threats Market Size Revenue Drivers Capital Allocation

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. produces and exports non-thermal metallurgical coal for the steel industry. It operates two underground mines located in Alabama. The company sells its metallurgical coal to a customer base of blast furnace steel producers located primarily in Europe, South America, and Asia. It also sells natural gas, which is extracted as a byproduct from coal production. Warrior Met Coal, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Brookwood, Alabama.

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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Warrior Met Coal (HCC):

Warrior Met Coal is like BHP Group or Rio Tinto, but exclusively mines the metallurgical (coking) coal essential for steel production globally.
Warrior Met Coal is like Peabody Energy, but focuses entirely on digging up the high-grade metallurgical coal used in steel mills, not the thermal coal for power plants.

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Non-thermal Metallurgical Coal: This is the primary product, used by blast furnace steel producers for steel manufacturing.
Natural Gas: A byproduct extracted during the coal production process, which the company also sells.

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Warrior Met Coal (HCC) sells its metallurgical coal to a diversified customer base of blast furnace steel producers. The company does not disclose specific customer names, as no single customer accounts for 10% or more of its total consolidated revenues.

Its customers can be categorized as:

Blast furnace steel producers in Europe
Blast furnace steel producers in South America
Blast furnace steel producers in Asia

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CSX Transportation, Inc. (CSX)
McDuffie Coal Terminal

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```html Walter J. Scheller III, Chief Executive Officer and Director Mr. Scheller was appointed Chief Executive Officer of Warrior Met Coal in March 2016. Prior to this, he served as CEO of Walter Energy, Inc. from September 2011 to March 2016, during which certain mining assets of Walter Energy were acquired by Warrior Met Coal, LLC, the company's predecessor. He also held the role of President and Chief Operating Officer of Jim Walter Resources, Inc., a primary subsidiary of Walter Energy, from June 2010 to September 2011. His career spans over 40 years, including senior management and operational positions at Peabody Energy Corporation (Senior Vice President – Strategic Operations), CNX Gas Corporation (Vice President), and CONSOL Energy Inc. (various executive and operational roles, including Vice President – Operations). Dale W. Boyles, Chief Financial Officer Mr. Boyles has served as Chief Financial Officer of Warrior Met Coal since January 2017. From November to December 2016, he provided consulting services to Warrior Met Coal, LLC. Previously, he was the Chief Financial Officer of Noranda Aluminum Holding Corporation from November 2013 to November 2016, where he oversaw its voluntary reorganization under Chapter 11 of the Bankruptcy Code in 2016. From 2006 to June 2012, Mr. Boyles held several positions at Hanesbrands, Inc., including Operating Chief Financial Officer, Interim Chief Financial Officer, and Vice President, Controller, and Chief Accounting Officer. He also has experience as an Audit Partner at KPMG LLP and as Corporate Division Controller for Collins & Aikman Corporation. Jack K. Richardson, Chief Operating Officer Mr. Richardson serves as the Chief Operating Officer of Warrior Met Coal. Kelli K. Gant, Chief Administrative Officer and Corporate Secretary Ms. Gant holds the titles of Chief Administrative Officer and Corporate Secretary for Warrior Met Coal. Charles Lussier, Chief Commercial Officer Mr. Lussier is the Chief Commercial Officer at Warrior Met Coal.

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The key risks to Warrior Met Coal's business are:

Dependence on the Steelmaking Coal Market and Price Volatility
Warrior Met Coal is a pure-play producer of metallurgical coal, making its revenue and profitability highly susceptible to fluctuations in global steel demand and met coal prices. Downturns in the steel industry, changes in global economic conditions, or oversupply in the market could adversely impact demand and pricing for its product.
Structural Decarbonization and Environmental/Regulatory Risks
The long-term global push towards decarbonization and increasingly stringent environmental regulations on fossil fuels pose a fundamental threat to the coal industry, including metallurgical coal. This could lead to reduced demand for coal in steelmaking over time, increased compliance costs, and potential disruptions to operations.
Trade and Geopolitical Risks
As a company that exports its metallurgical coal primarily to Europe, South America, and Asia, Warrior Met Coal is exposed to global trade policies, tariffs, and geopolitical instabilities. For instance, trade tensions, such as those between the US and China, can significantly impact the competitiveness and volume of its exports. Fluctuations in currency exchange rates also affect the cost-effectiveness of its products for international buyers.

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The clear emerging threat for Warrior Met Coal is the global steel industry's accelerating transition towards "green steel" production methods, particularly hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron (H-DRI). This technology aims to produce steel without using coking coal in the ironmaking process, fundamentally disrupting the primary demand driver for metallurgical coal. Significant investments and pilot projects are underway globally to scale these technologies, posing a long-term existential threat to companies reliant on traditional blast furnace steel production.

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Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) primarily produces and exports non-thermal metallurgical coal for the steel industry. The company sells its metallurgical coal to customers mainly located in Europe, South America, and Asia. It also sells natural gas, which is extracted as a byproduct from coal production.

Addressable Market Sizes for Metallurgical Coal:

The global metallurgical coal market is a significant addressable market for Warrior Met Coal. In 2025, the global metallurgical coal market size was valued at approximately between USD 81 billion and USD 126.35 billion, with projections indicating growth to USD 166.34 billion by 2034 at a CAGR of 3.06% during 2026-2034. As of 2024, global metallurgical coal production stands at approximately 1.2 billion metric tons annually, with consumption closely matching this figure. Global consumption of metallurgical coal is projected to reach approximately 1,114 million tonnes in 2025.

Asia (Asia-Pacific): The Asia-Pacific region represents the largest addressable market for metallurgical coal. The market in this region was valued at an estimated USD 41.70 billion in 2025. Asia-Pacific is estimated to contribute 60.3% to the growth of the global market. The region consumes over 700 million metric tons of metallurgical coal annually. China, a major consumer within Asia-Pacific, consumed over 676 million tonnes of coking coal in 2023.
Europe: The European metallurgical coal market is a key addressable region, with a valuation of approximately USD 24.06 billion in 2025. Europe has a stable annual metallurgical coal consumption of around 55 million metric tons, importing more than 30 million metric tons each year to meet its steel industry demands. In 2023, coke ovens in 13 EU countries consumed 37 million tonnes of coking coal.
South America (Latin America): The Latin America metallurgical coal market was valued at an estimated USD 13.70 billion in 2025.

Addressable Market Size for Natural Gas (byproduct):

The provided information does not readily quantify a specific addressable market size for natural gas extracted as a byproduct from Warrior Met Coal's operations. The market data predominantly focuses on metallurgical coal for steel production, and the natural gas byproduct is mentioned as a secondary product without specific market sizing details in the context of Warrior Met Coal's overall business.

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Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for Warrior Met Coal (HCC) over the next 2-3 years:

Ramp-up and Full Production of the Blue Creek Mine: The commissioning of the Blue Creek mine's longwall operations, which began ahead of schedule in October 2025, is expected to be completed in early 2026. This transformational mine is anticipated to increase Warrior Met Coal's total production capacity by approximately 75%, contributing significantly to sales volumes. The company expects 2026 sales volumes to increase by more than 30% and production volumes by more than 20% compared to 2025, largely due to Blue Creek's full-year contribution.
Increased Sales and Production Volumes: Driven by the Blue Creek mine and continued strong performance from existing operations, Warrior Met Coal has already achieved record sales and production volumes. Total sales volume for 2025 reached 9.6 million short tons, a 21% increase over the prior year, while production volume hit a record 10.2 million short tons, up 24% from 2024. The company forecasts total sales and production volumes to be "significantly higher" in 2026, aiming for 12.5-13.5 million short tons in sales and 12.0-13.0 million short tons in production.
Favorable Metallurgical Coal Market Conditions and Pricing: Although global steelmaking coal markets have faced challenges, Warrior Met Coal's expanded capacity and lower cost structure position it to capitalize on any market improvements. While the company anticipates markets to remain consistent with 2025 levels, any strengthening in metallurgical coal prices would directly enhance revenue due to the company's increased sales volumes.
Enhanced Cost Efficiency from Blue Creek: The Blue Creek mine is expected to contribute to a structurally lower cost base for Warrior Met Coal, improving its global cost curve positioning and generating incremental profit and cash flows. This improved cost efficiency allows the company to maintain strong margins even in volatile markets and ensures profitability as volumes increase, indirectly driving revenue growth by strengthening the company's competitive position.

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Share Repurchases

  Warrior Met Coal reported significant share repurchases, with the largest being $919.66 million as of March 31, 2023.
  The company executed quarterly buybacks of $12.00 million on March 31, 2024, and $9.38 million on March 31, 2025.
  As of December 31, 2025, quarterly stock buybacks amounted to $48.77 million.


Outbound Investments

  Warrior Met Coal secured 58 million short tons of high-quality steelmaking coal reserves through a federal coal lease sale, expanding its reserve base and extending the life of its core mining operations.


Capital Expenditures

  In 2024, capital expenditures and mine development for the Blue Creek growth project amounted to $488.3 million.
  For 2025, the company projected sustaining capital expenditures of approximately $90-$100 million and discretionary capital spending of $225-$250 million for Blue Creek development.
  Total Blue Creek project capital expenditures are estimated to be between $995 million and $1.075 billion, with the majority of the remaining investment expected by the end of the first quarter of 2026.

Interactive Breakdown

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Better Bets vs. Warrior Met Coal (HCC)

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Higher FCF/Rev LTM (Value for HCC: -7.7%)

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Commercial Metals

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Reliance

STLD (2.8%)

Steel Dynamics

NUE (-0.6%)

Nucor

CLF (-5.5%)

Cleveland-Cliffs

Higher Total Yield (Value for HCC: 1.6%)

WS (8.7%)

Worthington Steel

CMC (7.8%)

Commercial Metals

RS (5.7%)

Reliance

NUE (4.7%)

Nucor

STLD (4.6%)

Steel Dynamics

SECTOR: Materials

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/S (Values for HCC: -8.9% | 3.6x)

SHW (2.1% | 3.5x)

Sherwin-Williams

CRH (5.0% | 2.1x)

CRH

CTVA (-0.1% | 3.1x)

Corteva

NUE (-7.4% | 1.5x)

Nucor

STLD (-6.2% | 1.8x)

Steel Dynamics

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/Op Inc (Values for HCC: -8.9% | 104.2x)

LIN (0.6% | 24.9x)

Linde

SCCO (10.5% | 22.2x)

Southern Copper

NEM (26.2% | 10.8x)

Newmont

AEM (28.1% | 16.1x)

Agnico Eagle Mines

FCX (4.5% | 14.9x)

Freeport-McMoRan

Higher Rev Chg LTM (Value for HCC: -14.1%)

AEM (43.7%)

Agnico Eagle Mines

NEM (21.3%)

Newmont

SCCO (17.4%)

Southern Copper

LIN (3.0%)

Linde

FCX (1.8%)

Freeport-McMoRan

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg (Value for HCC: -8.9%)

AEM (28.1%)

Agnico Eagle Mines

NEM (26.2%)

Newmont

SCCO (10.5%)

Southern Copper

FCX (4.5%)

Freeport-McMoRan

LIN (0.6%)

Linde

Higher Op Mgn LTM (Value for HCC: 3.5%)

AEM (53.0%)

Agnico Eagle Mines

SCCO (52.2%)

Southern Copper

NEM (48.6%)

Newmont

LIN (27.2%)

Linde

FCX (25.1%)

Freeport-McMoRan

Higher CFO/Rev LTM (Value for HCC: 17.5%)

AEM (57.2%)

Agnico Eagle Mines

NEM (45.6%)

Newmont

SCCO (35.4%)

Southern Copper

LIN (30.5%)

Linde

FCX (21.6%)

Freeport-McMoRan

Higher FCF/Rev LTM (Value for HCC: -7.7%)

AEM (35.8%)

Agnico Eagle Mines

NEM (32.2%)

Newmont

SCCO (25.5%)

Southern Copper

LIN (15.0%)

Linde

FCX (4.3%)

Freeport-McMoRan

Higher Total Yield (Value for HCC: 1.6%)

NEM (6.9%)

Newmont

AEM (5.1%)

Agnico Eagle Mines

SCCO (4.4%)

Southern Copper

LIN (4.2%)

Linde

FCX (3.2%)

Freeport-McMoRan

All Other Sectors

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/S (Values for HCC: -8.9% | 3.6x)

WMT (5.3% | 1.4x)

Walmart

BRK-B (27.0% | 2.5x)

Berkshire Hathaway

XOM (-6.4% | 1.9x)

Exxon Mobil

COST (6.9% | 1.6x)

Costco Wholesale

BAC (6.0% | 3.5x)

Bank of America

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/Op Inc (Values for HCC: -8.9% | 104.2x)

NVDA (101.8% | 37.3x)

NVIDIA

GOOGL (12.5% | 31.1x)

Alphabet

AAPL (4.1% | 27.8x)

Apple

MSFT (14.4% | 22.1x)

Microsoft

AMZN (11.7% | 33.5x)

Amazon.com

Higher Rev Chg LTM (Value for HCC: -14.1%)

NVDA (65.5%)

NVIDIA

MSFT (16.7%)

Microsoft

GOOGL (15.1%)

Alphabet

AMZN (12.4%)

Amazon.com

AAPL (10.1%)

Apple

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg (Value for HCC: -8.9%)

NVDA (101.8%)

NVIDIA

MSFT (14.4%)

Microsoft

GOOGL (12.5%)

Alphabet

AMZN (11.7%)

Amazon.com

AAPL (4.1%)

Apple

Higher Op Mgn LTM (Value for HCC: 3.5%)

NVDA (60.4%)

NVIDIA

MSFT (46.7%)

Microsoft

AAPL (32.4%)

Apple

GOOGL (32.0%)

Alphabet

AMZN (11.2%)

Amazon.com

Higher CFO/Rev LTM (Value for HCC: 17.5%)

MSFT (52.5%)

Microsoft

NVDA (47.6%)

NVIDIA

GOOGL (40.9%)

Alphabet

AAPL (31.1%)

Apple

AMZN (19.5%)

Amazon.com

Higher FCF/Rev LTM (Value for HCC: -7.7%)

NVDA (44.8%)

NVIDIA

AAPL (28.3%)

Apple

MSFT (25.3%)

Microsoft

GOOGL (18.2%)

Alphabet

AMZN (1.1%)

Amazon.com

Higher Total Yield (Value for HCC: 1.6%)

MSFT (4.6%)

Microsoft

GOOGL (3.5%)

Alphabet

AAPL (3.4%)

Apple

AMZN (2.9%)

Amazon.com

NVDA (2.5%)

NVIDIA

Best Bets in Materials

What You Pay

P/EBIT (Value for HCC: 74.2x)

RGLD (33.8x)

Royal Gold

SCCO (21.7x)

Southern Copper

USLM (23.5x)

United States Lime & Minerals

CF (7.9x)

CF Industries

NEU (10.0x)

NewMarket

NEM (10.3x)

Newmont

EXP (11.1x)

Eagle Materials

SMG (9.9x)

Scotts Miracle Gro

B (7.3x)

Barrick Mining

CBT (6.5x)

Cabot

P/E (Value for HCC: 83.6x)

RGLD (43.7x)

Royal Gold

SCCO (35.8x)

Southern Copper

USLM (27.6x)

United States Lime & Minerals

CF (13.0x)

CF Industries

NEU (14.4x)

NewMarket

NEM (16.8x)

Newmont

EXP (15.2x)

Eagle Materials

SMG (41.5x)

Scotts Miracle Gro

B (13.6x)

Barrick Mining

CBT (12.9x)

Cabot

What You Get

Rev Chg 3Y Avg (Value for HCC: -8.9%)

RGLD (20.8%)

Royal Gold

SCCO (10.5%)

Southern Copper

USLM (16.5%)

United States Lime & Minerals

CF (-10.6%)

CF Industries

NEU (-0.4%)

NewMarket

NEM (26.2%)

Newmont

EXP (3.3%)

Eagle Materials

SMG (-4.6%)

Scotts Miracle Gro

B (16.0%)

Barrick Mining

CBT (-5.7%)

Cabot

Rev Chg LTM (Value for HCC: -14.1%)

RGLD (43.2%)

Royal Gold

SCCO (17.4%)

Southern Copper

USLM (17.3%)

United States Lime & Minerals

CF (19.3%)

CF Industries

NEU (-2.2%)

NewMarket

NEM (21.3%)

Newmont

EXP (1.4%)

Eagle Materials

SMG (-4.5%)

Scotts Miracle Gro

B (31.2%)

Barrick Mining

CBT (-9.6%)

Cabot

Rev Chg Q (Value for HCC: 29.1%)

RGLD (85.3%)

Royal Gold

SCCO (39.0%)

Southern Copper

USLM (9.8%)

United States Lime & Minerals

CF (22.8%)

CF Industries

NEU (-2.9%)

NewMarket

NEM (20.6%)

Newmont

EXP (-0.4%)

Eagle Materials

SMG (-3.3%)

Scotts Miracle Gro

B (64.5%)

Barrick Mining

CBT (-11.1%)

Cabot

FCF/Rev 3Y Avg (Value for HCC: -0.4%)

RGLD (27.8%)

Royal Gold

SCCO (27.0%)

Southern Copper

USLM (26.4%)

United States Lime & Minerals

CF (23.5%)

CF Industries

NEU (18.1%)

NewMarket

NEM (16.3%)

Newmont

EXP (15.1%)

Eagle Materials

SMG (13.2%)

Scotts Miracle Gro

B (12.9%)

Barrick Mining

CBT (10.7%)

Cabot

[1] Choosing top 10 best bets from each sector quarterly is an alpha producing strategy vs sector benchmark
[2] Historical annualized return of 11%, alpha of 1.8%, and sharpe of 0.46

Latest Trefis Analyses

	Title	Date
0	DASHBOARDS
1	Warrior Met Coal Earnings Notes	12/29/2026
2	Can Warrior Met Coal Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn?	10/17/2025
3	Warrior Met Coal vs Linde: Which Is A Better Investment?	08/18/2025
4	Warrior Met Coal vs Carpenter Technology: Which Is A Better Investment?	08/18/2025
5	Where Does Warrior Met Coal Stock Rank Among Competitors?	08/13/2025
6	Better Bet Than HCC Stock: Pay Less Than Warrior Met Coal To Get More From MSFT, GOOGL	08/12/2025
7	Better Bet Than HCC Stock: Pay Less Than Warrior Met Coal To Get More From CRS, CDE	08/12/2025
8	Better Bet Than HCC Stock: Pay Less Than Warrior Met Coal To Get More From CRS	08/12/2025
9	ARTICLES
10	Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High	01/13/2026
11	HCC Stock Up 20% after 7-Day Win Streak	08/09/2025

	Title
0	DASHBOARDS
1	Warrior Met Coal Earnings Notes
2	Can Warrior Met Coal Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn?
3	Warrior Met Coal vs Linde: Which Is A Better Investment?
4	Warrior Met Coal vs Carpenter Technology: Which Is A Better Investment?
5	Where Does Warrior Met Coal Stock Rank Among Competitors?
6	Better Bet Than HCC Stock: Pay Less Than Warrior Met Coal To Get More From MSFT, GOOGL
7	Better Bet Than HCC Stock: Pay Less Than Warrior Met Coal To Get More From CRS, CDE
8	Better Bet Than HCC Stock: Pay Less Than Warrior Met Coal To Get More From CRS
9	ARTICLES
10	Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High
11	HCC Stock Up 20% after 7-Day Win Streak

Trade Ideas

Select ideas related to HCC.

Unique Key	Date	Ticker	Company	Category	Trade Strategy	6M Fwd Rtn	12M Fwd Rtn	12M Max DD
AXTA_3272026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield	03272026	AXTA	Axalta Coating Systems	Dip Buy	DB \| FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin	3.2%	3.2%	-0.6%
IFF_3272026_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE_V2	03272026	IFF	International Flavors & Fragrances	Insider	Insider Buys \| Low D/EStrong Insider Buying Companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap	2.2%	2.2%	-0.1%
IP_3132026_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE_V2	03132026	IP	International Paper	Insider	Insider Buys \| Low D/EStrong Insider Buying Companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap	-4.2%	-4.2%	-9.4%
ARIS_3062026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield	03062026	ARIS	Aris Mining	Dip Buy	DB \| FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin	-3.9%	-3.9%	-16.7%
EMN_3062026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield	03062026	EMN	Eastman Chemical	Dip Buy	DB \| FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin	9.8%	9.8%	-6.0%

Recent Active Movers

Top Gainers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1D Rtn	YTD Rtn
POET	POET Technologies	0.9	19.3%	61.9%
CAR	Avis Budget	25.1	17.3%	456.4%
NVTS	Navitas Semiconductor	3.4	16.1%	114.7%
CBIO	Crescent Biopharma	0.7	13.3%	107.2%
VMI	Valmont Industries	9.0	11.9%	14.3%
MLI	Mueller Industries	14.7	11.4%	17.7%
EGY	VAALCO Energy	0.6	11.0%	65.2%
PBI	Pitney Bowes	2.3	10.9%	39.6%
CRVS	Corvus Pharmaceuticals	1.4	10.3%	122.6%
VICR	Vicor	11.1	9.5%	124.7%

Top Losers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1D Rtn	YTD Rtn
WASH	Washington Trust Bancorp	0.6	-16.9%	5.2%
TPB	Turning Point Brands	1.3	-16.5%	-34.8%
VSEC	VSE	4.4	-13.7%	12.6%
NG	Novagold Resources	3.8	-12.7%	0.8%
ULCC	Frontier	1.0	-12.1%	-10.2%
TSCO	Tractor Supply	20.9	-11.7%	-20.5%
ELE	Elemental Royalty	1.2	-10.4%	7.8%
HYMC	Hycroft Mining	3.3	-10.4%	65.8%
PEGA	Pegasystems	6.7	-10.3%	-34.1%
REPL	Replimune	0.2	-10.1%	-80.9%

Top Gainers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1W Rtn	YTD Rtn
CAR	Avis Budget	25.1	73.5%	456.4%
MXL	MaxLinear	2.9	56.3%	93.3%
NVTS	Navitas Semiconductor	3.4	55.3%	114.7%
POET	POET Technologies	0.9	52.8%	61.9%
BB	BlackBerry	3.3	41.3%	48.0%
NN	NextNav	3.1	40.0%	35.6%
HIMS	Hims & Hers Health	6.8	39.3%	-8.3%
USAR	USA Rare Earth	2.3	34.5%	92.0%
BETR	Better Home & Finance	0.7	34.0%	42.9%
BAND	Bandwidth	0.7	32.3%	53.7%

Top Losers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1W Rtn	YTD Rtn
IIIN	Insteel Industries	0.5	-34.3%	-21.9%
QDEL	QuidelOrtho	0.8	-30.5%	-57.8%
ANAB	AnaptysBio	1.4	-26.2%	6.9%
BMI	Badger Meter	3.6	-25.1%	-30.5%
AGIO	Agios Pharmaceuticals	1.5	-21.1%	-3.4%
LCID	Lucid	2.3	-19.2%	-32.7%
IAG	Iamgold	9.7	-18.4%	2.1%
MDXG	MiMedx	0.5	-18.4%	-52.7%
ORLA	Orla Mining	4.8	-18.3%	8.1%
WASH	Washington Trust Bancorp	0.6	-17.7%	5.2%

Top Gainers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1M Rtn	YTD Rtn
BCPC	Balchem	5.6	647.6%	14.6%
CAR	Avis Budget	25.1	614.7%	456.4%
AEHR	Aehr Test Systems	2.8	171.5%	364.2%
APLS	Apellis Pharmaceuticals	5.2	137.9%	63.0%
SGML	Sigma Lithium	2.4	135.4%	61.4%
CBIO	Crescent Biopharma	0.7	125.4%	107.2%
CODI	Compass Diversified	0.9	111.6%	146.0%
KOD	Kodiak Sciences	2.4	107.4%	65.0%
MXL	MaxLinear	2.9	103.5%	93.3%
SATL	Satellogic	0.9	100.8%	285.6%

Top Losers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1M Rtn	YTD Rtn
REPL	Replimune	0.2	-73.4%	-80.9%
PIPR	Piper Sandler Cos	6.1	-69.0%	9.5%
VRDN	Viridian Therapeutics	1.3	-47.1%	-54.1%
MAZE	Maze Therapeutics	1.2	-46.5%	-38.0%
BUR	Burford Capital	1.0	-41.2%	-49.2%
WVE	WAVE Life Sciences	1.3	-37.6%	-56.8%
TASK	TaskUs	0.7	-30.5%	-6.2%
FRMI	Fermi	3.0	-29.7%	-36.8%
LCID	Lucid	2.3	-29.3%	-32.7%
BTU	Peabody Energy	3.3	-27.5%	-8.8%

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

	HCC	AMR	BTU	METC	SXC	Median
Name	Warrior .	Alpha Me.	Peabody .	Ramaco R.	SunCoke .
Mkt Price	90.59	206.77	27.04	14.93	6.56	27.04
Mkt Cap	4.8	2.7	3.3	1.0	0.6	2.7
Rev LTM	1,310	2,129	3,862	537	1,837	1,837
Op Inc LTM	46	-61	-5	-56	46	-5
FCF LTM	-100	18	-88	-82	42	-82
FCF 3Y Avg	6	335	268	12	93	93
CFO LTM	229	145	334	2	109	145
CFO 3Y Avg	433	525	659	92	176	433

Growth & Margins

	HCC	AMR	BTU	METC	SXC	Median
Name	Warrior .	Alpha Me.	Peabody .	Ramaco R.	SunCoke .
Rev Chg LTM	-14.1%	-28.0%	-8.9%	-19.5%	-5.1%	-14.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg	-8.9%	-19.4%	-8.0%	-0.3%	-2.2%	-8.0%
Rev Chg Q	29.1%	-15.7%	-9.0%	-25.1%	-1.2%	-9.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM	7.1%	-4.4%	-2.5%	-7.4%	-0.3%	-2.5%
Op Inc Chg LTM	-82.1%	-126.9%	-101.5%	-436.4%	-69.8%	-101.5%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg	-56.7%	-82.0%	-61.6%	-185.2%	-22.3%	-61.6%
Op Mgn LTM	3.5%	-2.9%	-0.1%	-10.4%	2.5%	-0.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg	17.7%	9.9%	9.7%	1.9%	5.5%	9.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM	2.9%	-1.5%	-0.5%	-4.6%	-2.3%	-1.5%
CFO/Rev LTM	17.5%	6.8%	8.6%	0.4%	5.9%	6.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg	27.8%	17.0%	14.6%	13.5%	8.9%	14.6%
FCF/Rev LTM	-7.7%	0.8%	-2.3%	-15.3%	2.3%	-2.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg	-0.4%	10.4%	5.5%	0.7%	4.7%	4.7%

Valuation

	HCC	AMR	BTU	METC	SXC	Median
Name	Warrior .	Alpha Me.	Peabody .	Ramaco R.	SunCoke .
Mkt Cap	4.8	2.7	3.3	1.0	0.6	2.7
P/S	3.6	1.2	0.9	1.8	0.3	1.2
P/Op Inc	104.2	-43.3	-660.3	-17.5	12.2	-17.5
P/EBIT	74.2	-31.5	687.8	-18.4	-12.6	-12.6
P/E	83.6	-43.1	-62.4	-19.0	-12.7	-19.0
P/CFO	20.8	18.4	9.9	497.5	5.1	18.4
Total Yield	1.6%	-2.3%	-0.5%	-4.8%	-0.5%	-0.5%
Dividend Yield	0.4%	0.0%	1.1%	0.4%	7.4%	0.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg	0.4%	9.6%	9.1%	3.9%	10.9%	9.1%
D/E	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.5	1.2	0.1
Net D/E	-0.0	-0.2	-0.0	0.0	1.1	-0.0

Returns

	HCC	AMR	BTU	METC	SXC	Median
Name	Warrior .	Alpha Me.	Peabody .	Ramaco R.	SunCoke .
1M Rtn	2.3%	6.8%	-27.5%	11.0%	9.2%	6.8%
3M Rtn	-8.4%	-11.2%	-27.0%	-33.1%	-14.7%	-14.7%
6M Rtn	40.2%	30.6%	-5.9%	-64.2%	-16.7%	-5.9%
12M Rtn	90.5%	70.6%	122.7%	57.5%	-24.5%	70.6%
3Y Rtn	154.6%	33.6%	17.0%	-13.2%	-7.4%	17.0%
1M Excs Rtn	-6.3%	-1.8%	-36.1%	2.4%	0.6%	-1.8%
3M Excs Rtn	-12.3%	-15.1%	-31.0%	-37.0%	-18.7%	-18.7%
6M Excs Rtn	33.1%	28.7%	-19.2%	-73.4%	-21.7%	-19.2%
12M Excs Rtn	50.8%	32.7%	79.8%	17.5%	-59.1%	32.7%
3Y Excs Rtn	75.0%	-44.1%	-59.0%	-83.9%	-82.1%	-59.0%

Comparison Analyses

	Title
0	Where Does Warrior Met Coal Stock Rank Among Competitors?

FDIC Bank Data

$ Mil \| FY: 12/31	LTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Period End	12/31/2025	12/31/2025	12/31/2024	12/31/2023	12/31/2022	12/31/2021	12/31/2020
Filing Date	2/12/2026	2/12/2026	2/13/2025	2/14/2024	2/15/2023	2/22/2022	2/24/2021
Key Financials
Total Revenue	1,310	1,310	1,525	1,677	1,739	1,059	783
EBITDA	253	253	442	697	930	378	94
Operating Income	46	46	255	550	837	299	-27
Net Income	57	57	251	479	641	151	-36
EPS	1.09	1.08	4.79	9.21	12.42	2.94	-0.70
Growth Rates
Total Revenue Growth	-14.1%	-14.1%	-9.0%	-3.6%	64.2%	35.3%	-38.3%
EBITDA Growth	-42.8%	-42.8%	-36.6%	-25.1%	146.1%	299.9%	-80.9%
Operating Income Growth	-82.1%	-82.1%	-53.5%	-34.3%	179.9%	1201.8%	-107.1%
Net Income Growth	-77.3%	-77.3%	-47.6%	-25.4%	325.0%	521.9%	-111.9%
Margins
EBITDA Margin	19.3%	19.3%	29.0%	41.6%	53.5%	35.7%	12.1%
Operating Income Margin	3.5%	3.5%	16.7%	32.8%	48.1%	28.2%	-3.5%
Net Income Margin	4.4%	4.4%	16.4%	28.5%	36.9%	14.2%	-4.6%
Cash & Debt
Total Cash	353	353	506	747	838	404	220
Total Debt	271	271	173	173	336	392	418
Net Debt / (Cash)	-82	-82	-333	-574	-502	-12	198
Cash Flows
Net Cash from Operations	229	229	367	701	842	352	113
Free Cash from Operations	-100	-100	-90	209	633	294	25
Returns to Shareholders
Dividends	18	18	44	61	80	10	10
Share Repurchases	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0

$ Mil \| FY: 12/31	2025Q4	2025Q3	2025Q2	2025Q1	2024Q4	2024Q3	2024Q2	2024Q1	2023Q4	2023Q3	2023Q2	2023Q1
Period End	12/31/2025	9/30/2025	6/30/2025	3/31/2025	12/31/2024	9/30/2024	6/30/2024	3/31/2024	12/31/2023	9/30/2023	6/30/2023	3/31/2023
Filing Date	2/12/2026	11/5/2025	8/6/2025	4/30/2025	2/13/2025	10/30/2024	8/1/2024	5/1/2024	2/14/2024	11/1/2023	8/2/2023	5/3/2023
Key Financials Quarterly
Total Revenue	384	329	298	300	297	328	397	504	364	423	380	510
Ebitda	95	69	56	33	42	84	118	197	168	140	133	256
Operating Income	35	21	8	-17	-4	39	71	149	134	108	94	214
Net Income	23	37	6	-8	1	42	71	137	129	85	82	182
EPS	0.44	0.70	0.11	-0.16	0.02	0.80	1.35	2.63	2.48	1.64	1.58	3.52
Key Financials TTM
Total Revenue TTM	1,310	1,224	1,223	1,322	1,525	1,592	1,687	1,670	1,677	1,658	1,624	1,870
Ebitda TTM	253	200	216	278	442	568	624	638	697	657	685	963
Operating Income TTM	46	7	26	89	255	393	462	485	550	539	568	854
Net Income TTM	57	35	40	105	251	378	422	433	479	449	462	677
Growth Rates Quarterly
Total Revenue Growth	29.1%	0.3%	-25.0%	-40.4%	-18.2%	-22.6%	4.4%	-1.2%	5.5%	8.5%	-39.3%	34.6%
EBITDA Growth	126.0%	-18.6%	-52.6%	-83.2%	-75.1%	-39.5%	-10.8%	-22.9%	30.8%	-16.8%	-67.7%	15.1%
Operating Income Growth	1040.7%	-47.0%	-89.1%	-111.7%	-102.8%	-63.8%	-24.6%	-30.3%	8.8%	-21.1%	-75.3%	8.8%
Net Income Growth	1921.3%	-12.4%	-92.1%	-106.0%	-99.1%	-51.1%	-13.9%	-24.8%	29.3%	-13.2%	-72.4%	24.6%
Margins Quarterly
EBITDA Margin	24.7%	20.9%	18.8%	11.1%	14.1%	25.8%	29.8%	39.2%	46.3%	33.0%	34.9%	50.2%
Operating Income Margin	9.0%	6.3%	2.6%	-5.8%	-1.2%	11.9%	17.9%	29.6%	36.8%	25.5%	24.8%	42.0%
Net Income Margin	6.0%	11.1%	1.9%	-2.7%	0.4%	12.7%	17.8%	27.2%	35.4%	20.2%	21.6%	35.8%
Cash & Debt
Total Cash	353	393	431	488	506	593	718	703	747	696	836	871
Total Debt	271	237	236	172	173	170	171	172	173	176	324	326
Net Debt / (Cash)	-82	-156	-195	-316	-333	-422	-547	-531	-574	-519	-512	-546
Cash Flows Quarterly
FCF from Operations	76	105	38	11	54	62	147	104	245	139	125	193
Cash Flows TTM
FCF from Operations TTM	229	207	165	274	367	558	635	612	701	651	760	965
Returns to Shareholders Quarterly
Dividends	4	4	4	5	3	4	6	31	4	4	4	50
Share Repurchases	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) Quarterly
ROIC	75.3%	210.1%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) TTM
ROIC TTM	38.8%	18.7%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Mining	1,648	1,708	1,028	762	1,236
All other	29	31	31	21	32
Total	1,677	1,739	1,059	783	1,268

Assets by Segment

$ Mil	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Mining	1,819
All other	538
Total	2,357

Price Behavior

Price Behavior

Market Price	$90.59
Market Cap ($ Bil)	4.8
First Trading Date	04/13/2017
Distance from 52W High	-11.5%
	50 Days	200 Days
DMA Price	$87.81	$75.25
DMA Trend	up	down
Distance from DMA	3.2%	20.4%
	3M	1YR
Volatility	50.9%	53.9%
Downside Capture	0.33	0.22
Upside Capture	38.79	112.82
Correlation (SPY)	16.6%	20.1%

HCC Betas & Captures as of 3/31/2026

	1M	2M	3M	6M	1Y	3Y
Beta	0.52	0.94	0.75	0.82	0.69	0.77
Up Beta	0.26	0.91	0.57	0.91	0.54	0.67
Down Beta	3.24	1.57	1.29	0.81	0.89	0.84
Up Capture	50%	116%	83%	162%	109%	83%
Bmk +ve Days	7	16	27	65	139	424
Stock +ve Days	12	21	35	71	132	390
Down Capture	-122%	48%	29%	36%	51%	88%
Bmk -ve Days	12	23	33	58	110	323
Stock -ve Days	10	21	28	55	120	359

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively

Based On 1-Year Data

	Annualized Return	Annualized Volatility	Sharpe Ratio	Correlation with HCC
HCC	84.9%	53.9%	1.32	-
Sector ETF (XLB)	30.3%	16.7%	1.41	26.8%
Equity (SPY)	23.7%	12.7%	1.52	20.2%
Gold (GLD)	41.4%	27.5%	1.25	13.2%
Commodities (DBC)	22.4%	16.2%	1.25	15.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)	14.2%	13.8%	0.72	14.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)	-10.4%	42.7%	-0.14	13.1%

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Based On 5-Year Data

	Annualized Return	Annualized Volatility	Sharpe Ratio	Correlation with HCC
HCC	40.8%	49.5%	0.87	-
Sector ETF (XLB)	7.1%	18.9%	0.27	35.7%
Equity (SPY)	10.8%	17.1%	0.49	24.8%
Gold (GLD)	21.6%	17.8%	0.99	15.5%
Commodities (DBC)	10.9%	18.8%	0.47	30.7%
Real Estate (VNQ)	4.1%	18.8%	0.12	18.6%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)	3.8%	56.4%	0.29	12.4%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Based On 10-Year Data

	Annualized Return	Annualized Volatility	Sharpe Ratio	Correlation with HCC
HCC	29.9%	52.3%	0.76	-
Sector ETF (XLB)	10.8%	20.6%	0.47	40.7%
Equity (SPY)	13.9%	17.9%	0.67	32.8%
Gold (GLD)	13.7%	15.9%	0.71	10.0%
Commodities (DBC)	8.2%	17.6%	0.39	31.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)	5.4%	20.7%	0.23	24.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)	68.0%	66.9%	1.07	13.2%

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Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date	3312026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity	3.9 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 3152026	13.7%
Average Daily Volume	0.9 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest	4.4 days
Basic Shares Quantity	52.6 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares	7.4%

Returns Analyses

	Title
0	Can Warrior Met Coal Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn?

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

	Forward Returns
Earnings Date	1D Returns	5D Returns	21D Returns
2/12/2026	0.2%	-1.3%	-1.5%
11/5/2025	23.1%	27.4%	19.8%
8/6/2025	8.8%	16.6%	10.8%
4/30/2025	-5.0%	-4.0%	-4.8%
2/13/2025	-8.4%	-14.6%	-10.5%
10/30/2024	2.2%	19.8%	14.0%
8/1/2024	-4.3%	-6.1%	-5.4%
5/1/2024	-3.5%	-4.4%	0.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS
# Positive	9	7	14
# Negative	14	16	9
Median Positive	3.3%	16.6%	11.2%
Median Negative	-5.1%	-6.0%	-10.5%
Max Positive	23.1%	27.4%	34.5%
Max Negative	-22.6%	-20.6%	-36.6%

	Forward Returns
2/12/2026	0.2%	-1.3%	-1.5%
11/5/2025	23.1%	27.4%	19.8%
8/6/2025	8.8%	16.6%	10.8%
4/30/2025	-5.0%	-4.0%	-4.8%
2/13/2025	-8.4%	-14.6%	-10.5%
10/30/2024	2.2%	19.8%	14.0%
8/1/2024	-4.3%	-6.1%	-5.4%
5/1/2024	-3.5%	-4.4%	0.9%
2/14/2024	-3.3%	-5.1%	-10.6%
11/1/2023	-1.9%	-8.1%	17.6%
8/2/2023	-11.7%	-6.5%	-8.5%
5/3/2023	6.5%	17.1%	4.5%
2/15/2023	-1.0%	-6.2%	-15.9%
11/2/2022	3.6%	-2.8%	6.9%
8/3/2022	-9.6%	-1.3%	4.1%
5/5/2022	-5.2%	-6.0%	10.2%
2/22/2022	0.1%	6.6%	23.5%
11/2/2021	-5.5%	-12.0%	-11.8%
8/4/2021	3.3%	2.5%	34.5%
5/5/2021	-5.0%	-7.2%	11.6%
2/24/2021	-22.6%	-20.6%	-36.6%
10/28/2020	0.8%	9.6%	29.9%
8/5/2020	-6.1%	-2.5%	0.9%
SUMMARY STATS
# Positive	9	7	14
# Negative	14	16	9
Median Positive	3.3%	16.6%	11.2%
Median Negative	-5.1%	-6.0%	-10.5%
Max Positive	23.1%	27.4%	34.5%
Max Negative	-22.6%	-20.6%	-36.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report Date	Filing Date	Filing
12/31/2025	02/12/2026	10-K
09/30/2025	11/05/2025	10-Q
06/30/2025	08/06/2025	10-Q
03/31/2025	04/30/2025	10-Q
12/31/2024	02/13/2025	10-K
09/30/2024	10/30/2024	10-Q
06/30/2024	08/01/2024	10-Q
03/31/2024	05/01/2024	10-Q
12/31/2023	02/14/2024	10-K
09/30/2023	11/01/2023	10-Q
06/30/2023	08/02/2023	10-Q
03/31/2023	05/03/2023	10-Q
12/31/2022	02/15/2023	10-K
09/30/2022	11/02/2022	10-Q
06/30/2022	08/03/2022	10-Q
03/31/2022	05/05/2022	10-Q

Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]

Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/12/2026

Forward Guidance				Guidance Change
Metric	Low	Mid	High	% Chg	% Delta	Change	Prior
2026 Coal sales	12.50 Mil	13.00 Mil	13.50 Mil	38.3%		Higher New	Actual: 9.40 Mil for 2025
2026 Coal production	12.00 Mil	12.50 Mil	13.00 Mil	30.2%		Higher New	Actual: 9.60 Mil for 2025
2026 Cash cost of sales (free-on-board port)	95	102	110	-4.7%		Lower New	Actual: 108 for 2025
2026 Capital expenditures for sustaining existing mines	105.00 Mil	110.00 Mil	115.00 Mil	15.8%		Higher New	Actual: 95.00 Mil for 2025
2026 Capital expenditures for Blue Creek project	50.00 Mil	62.50 Mil	75.00 Mil	-73.7%		Lower New	Actual: 237.50 Mil for 2025
2026 Depreciation and depletion	225.00 Mil	237.50 Mil	250.00 Mil	20.3%		Higher New	Actual: 197.50 Mil for 2025
2026 Selling, general and administrative expenses	75.00 Mil	80.00 Mil	85.00 Mil	14.3%		Higher New	Actual: 70.00 Mil for 2025
2026 Interest expense	20.00 Mil	22.50 Mil	25.00 Mil	80.0%		Higher New	Actual: 12.50 Mil for 2025
2026 Interest income	3.00 Mil	5.50 Mil	8.00 Mil	-68.6%		Lower New	Actual: 17.50 Mil for 2025

Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/5/2025

Forward Guidance				Guidance Change
Metric	Low	Mid	High	% Chg	% Delta	Change	Prior
2025 Coal sales	9.20 Mil	9.40 Mil	9.60 Mil	2.7%		Raised	Guidance: 9.15 Mil for 2025
2025 Coal production	9.40 Mil	9.60 Mil	9.80 Mil	10.3%		Raised	Guidance: 8.70 Mil for 2025
2025 Cash cost of sales (free-on-board port)	105	108	110	-6.5%		Lowered	Guidance: 115 for 2025
2025 Capital expenditures for sustaining existing mines	90.00 Mil	95.00 Mil	100.00 Mil	0		Affirmed	Guidance: 95.00 Mil for 2025
2025 Capital expenditures for Blue Creek project	225.00 Mil	237.50 Mil	250.00 Mil	0		Affirmed	Guidance: 237.50 Mil for 2025
2025 Mine development costs for Blue Creek project	85.00 Mil	92.50 Mil	100.00 Mil	0		Affirmed	Guidance: 92.50 Mil for 2025
2025 Depreciation and depletion	185.00 Mil	197.50 Mil	210.00 Mil	0		Affirmed	Guidance: 197.50 Mil for 2025
2025 Selling, general and administrative expenses	65.00 Mil	70.00 Mil	75.00 Mil	0		Affirmed	Guidance: 70.00 Mil for 2025
2025 Interest expense	10.00 Mil	12.50 Mil	15.00 Mil	0		Affirmed	Guidance: 12.50 Mil for 2025
2025 Interest income	15.00 Mil	17.50 Mil	20.00 Mil	0		Affirmed	Guidance: 17.50 Mil for 2025

Insider Activity

Expand for More

#	Owner	Title	Holding	Action	Filing Date	Price	Shares	Transacted Value	Value of Held Shares	Form
1	Chopin, Brian M	CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER	Direct	Sell	11142025	84.75	585	49,579	1,807,040	Form
2	Chopin, Brian M	CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER	Direct	Sell	11142025	80.54	1,498	120,649	1,596,625	Form
3	Scheller, Walter J	CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER	Direct	Sell	11072025	75.00	18,966	1,422,450	29,563,725	Form
4	Richardson, Jack K	CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER	Direct	Buy	5232025	46.43	1,815	84,270	8,772,159	Form
5	Scheller, Walter J	CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER	Direct	Sell	1132026	100.31	100,000	10,031,000	29,509,497	Form

HCC Trade Sentinel

Stock Conviction

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CONVICTION RATIONALE

null

STOCK ARCHETYPE

null

Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the Trefis High Quality Portfolio.

INVESTMENT THESIS

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Mechanism: null

Supporting Evidence:

PRIMARY RISK

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Mechanism: null

Supporting Evidence:

Key KPI Watchlist

KPI	Threshold	Rationale

Core Investment Debate

BULL VIEW

CORE TENSION

PREVAILING SENTIMENT

BEAR VIEW

Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts

Timeline	Event & Metric To Watch

Key Events in Last 6 Months

Date	Event	Stock Impact

Risk Management

Position Sizing

null

Diversification Alternatives

How Is The Market Pricing HCC?

What will confirm the thesis

What will damage the thesis

Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis

Repricing Catalyst

What HCC Makes & Who Pays

TTM figures based on

HCC Evolution: Price Return by Era

① Structure

② Volume / Momentum

③ Catalyst

Combined Score

0 / 12

1 Price Structure & Trend · ▾

2 Momentum ▾

3 Relative Strength vs. SPY ▾

4 Institutional Footprint & Volume ▾

5 Volatility ▾

6 Key Price Levels Range · Vol ▾

7 Earnings Reaction History ▾

8 How the Verdict Is Derived Three Pillars ▾

Pillar	Score
① Structure	0
② Vol / Mom	0
③ Catalyst	0

ℹ Bull Pillars: 0 · Bear Pillars: 0 · Combined Score: 0 →

External Quote Links

0	Y Finance	Barrons
1	TradingView	Morningstar
2	SeekingAlpha	ValueLine
3	Motley Fool	Robinhood
4	CNBC	Etrade
5	MarketWatch	Unusual Whales
6	YCharts	Perplexity Finance
7	FinViz

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Warrior Met Coal (HCC)

Market Price (4/22/2026): $90.59 | Market Cap: $4.8 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Steel

Warrior Met Coal (HCC)

Market Price (4/22/2026): $90.59Market Cap: $4.8 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Steel

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

Market Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

Market Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

Market Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

Market Drivers

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

How Low Can It Go

In The Past

Preserve Wealth

Asset Allocation

About Warrior Met Coal (HCC)

Dependence on the Steelmaking Coal Market and Price Volatility

Structural Decarbonization and Environmental/Regulatory Risks

Trade and Geopolitical Risks

Addressable Market Sizes for Metallurgical Coal:

Addressable Market Size for Natural Gas (byproduct):

Share Repurchases

Outbound Investments

Capital Expenditures

Interactive Breakdown

Better Bets vs. Warrior Met Coal (HCC)

INDUSTRY: Steel

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/S (Values for HCC: -8.9% | 3.6x)

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/Op Inc (Values for HCC: -8.9% | 104.2x)

Higher Rev Chg LTM (Value for HCC: -14.1%)

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg (Value for HCC: -8.9%)

Higher Op Mgn LTM (Value for HCC: 3.5%)

Higher CFO/Rev LTM (Value for HCC: 17.5%)

Higher FCF/Rev LTM (Value for HCC: -7.7%)

Higher Total Yield (Value for HCC: 1.6%)

SECTOR: Materials

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/S (Values for HCC: -8.9% | 3.6x)

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/Op Inc (Values for HCC: -8.9% | 104.2x)

Higher Rev Chg LTM (Value for HCC: -14.1%)

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg (Value for HCC: -8.9%)

Higher Op Mgn LTM (Value for HCC: 3.5%)

Higher CFO/Rev LTM (Value for HCC: 17.5%)

Higher FCF/Rev LTM (Value for HCC: -7.7%)

Higher Total Yield (Value for HCC: 1.6%)

All Other Sectors

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/S (Values for HCC: -8.9% | 3.6x)

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/Op Inc (Values for HCC: -8.9% | 104.2x)

Higher Rev Chg LTM (Value for HCC: -14.1%)

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg (Value for HCC: -8.9%)

Higher Op Mgn LTM (Value for HCC: 3.5%)

Higher CFO/Rev LTM (Value for HCC: 17.5%)

Higher FCF/Rev LTM (Value for HCC: -7.7%)

Higher Total Yield (Value for HCC: 1.6%)

Best Bets in Materials

P/EBIT (Value for HCC: 74.2x)

P/E (Value for HCC: 83.6x)

Rev Chg 3Y Avg (Value for HCC: -8.9%)

Rev Chg LTM (Value for HCC: -14.1%)

Rev Chg Q (Value for HCC: 29.1%)

FCF/Rev 3Y Avg (Value for HCC: -0.4%)

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Market Price (4/22/2026): $90.59 | Market Cap: $4.8 Bil
Sector: Materials | Industry: Steel

Market Price (4/22/2026): $90.59
Market Cap: $4.8 Bil
Sector: Materials
Industry: Steel