Warrior Met Coal (HCC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $83.45 | Market Cap: $4.4 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Steel
Warrior Met Coal (HCC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $83.45Market Cap: $4.4 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Steel
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.3%, Dist 3Y High is -1.3% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 117x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 95x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Industrial Base Materials. Themes include Metallurgical Coal Production. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -12% | |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.6% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Industrial Base Materials. Themes include Metallurgical Coal Production. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.3%, Dist 3Y High is -1.3% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 117x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 95x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -12% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.6% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
HCC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The stock of Warrior Met Coal (HCC) experienced a significant movement, with a 35.8% increase, from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025. This rise can be attributed to several key factors.
1. Early Commencement of Blue Creek Longwall Operations: Warrior Met Coal announced on November 5, 2025, the commencement of longwall operations at its transformational Blue Creek mine, eight months ahead of schedule and on budget. This early start is a significant operational advancement, enhancing production capacity and is expected to have a massive impact on Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow going forward.
2. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Beat and Raised Guidance: The company reported its third-quarter 2025 results on November 5, 2025. Despite challenging market conditions leading to a slight decrease in net income year-over-year, Warrior Met Coal reported diluted earnings per share of $0.70, significantly beating the consensus estimate of ($0.09). Total revenues of $328.6 million also surpassed the estimated $304.33 million. In conjunction with these results, the company raised its full-year 2025 production and sales volume guidance by approximately 10%, reflecting improved operational capabilities.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HCC Return | 2% | 22% | 41% | 82% | -10% | 45% | 316% |
| Peers Return | -6% | 49% | 24% | 40% | 33% | 43% | 364% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HCC Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 58% | 58% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 47% | 55% | 57% | 53% | 60% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HCC Max Drawdown | -53% | -26% | -2% | -7% | -14% | -25% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -51% | -8% | -19% | -7% | -15% | -12% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NWPX, FRD, NUE, STLD, CRS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HCC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 122 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -57.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 135.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 285 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -37.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 793 days | 120 days |
Compare to NWPX, FRD, NUE, STLD, CRS
In The Past
Warrior Met Coal's stock fell -38.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/24/2021. A -38.4% loss requires a 62.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to HCC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Warrior Met Coal
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 123.81 |
| Mkt Cap | 10.0 |
| Rev LTM | 2,058 |
| Op Inc LTM | 305 |
| FCF LTM | 30 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 105 |
| CFO LTM | 323 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 377 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -3.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 10.0 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/EBIT | 13.8 |
| P/E | 20.6 |
| P/CFO | 11.5 |
| Total Yield | 6.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 23.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 32.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 20.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 93.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 16.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 17.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 5.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 24.4% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2132025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2142024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2152023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Richardson Jack K. | CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER | 5232025 | Buy | 46.43 | 1,815 | 84,270 | 8,772,159 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |