Tearsheet

Packaging of America (PKG)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $202.3 | Market Cap: $18.1 Bil
Sector: Materials | Industry: Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials

Packaging of America (PKG)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $202.3
Market Cap: $18.1 Bil
Sector: Materials
Industry: Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%, Dividend Yield is 2.3%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -14%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -6.3%
Key risks
PKG key risks include [1] its substantial reliance on the North American market, Show more.
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 28%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Sustainable Packaging Materials, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%, Dividend Yield is 2.3%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 28%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Sustainable Packaging Materials, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -14%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -6.3%
5 Key risks
PKG key risks include [1] its substantial reliance on the North American market, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

PKG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why Packaging Corporation of America's (PKG) stock moved by -6.1% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025: 1. Packaging Corporation of America reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $2.73, which fell short of analyst consensus estimates of $2.82 or $2.83.

2. The company issued a lower-than-expected earnings per share guidance of approximately $2.40 for the fourth quarter of 2025, signaling potential challenges ahead.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
PKG Return27%2%-3%32%42%-7%118%
Peers Return7%13%4%5%14%-15%28%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PKG Win Rate58%50%50%50%83%58% 
Peers Win Rate56%58%50%42%52%42% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PKG Max Drawdown-31%-6%-16%-2%-1%-21% 
Peers Max Drawdown-40%-5%-14%-12%-9%-28% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: IP, SON, GPK, GEF. See PKG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventPKGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-32.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven47.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven430 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-31.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven46.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven178 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-39.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven66.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven687 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-69.2%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven224.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,255 days1,480 days

Compare to KMB, IP, AMCR, SW, PKG


In The Past

Packaging of America's stock fell -32.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -32.4% loss requires a 47.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Packaging of America (PKG)

Better Bets than Packaging of America (PKG)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to PKG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
42.2%42.2%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%-2.5%
PKG_9302022_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302022PKGPackaging of AmericaDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
26.0%41.9%0.0%
PKG_12312018_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield12312018PKGPackaging of AmericaDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
18.9%38.4%-0.7%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
42.2%42.2%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%-2.5%
PKG_9302022_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302022PKGPackaging of AmericaDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
26.0%41.9%0.0%
PKG_12312018_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield12312018PKGPackaging of AmericaDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
18.9%38.4%-0.7%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Packaging of America

Peers to compare with:

Financials

PKGIPSONGPKGEFMedian
NamePackagin.Internat.Sonoco P.Graphic .Greif  
Mkt Price202.3338.6943.1615.5369.3443.16
Mkt Cap18.120.44.34.64.04.6
Rev LTM8,77225,5967,1148,6094,8938,609
Op Inc LTM1,296-10641962407641
FCF LTM725-277298-309335298
FCF 3Y Avg714491360-48336360
CFO LTM1,4361,190673809490809
CFO 3Y Avg1,3461,688727925532925

Growth & Margins

PKGIPSONGPKGEFMedian
NamePackagin.Internat.Sonoco P.Graphic .Greif  
Rev Chg LTM7.3%42.7%67.9%-3.9%22.1%22.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg1.1%9.0%7.8%-1.5%-6.6%1.1%
Rev Chg Q6.0%56.4%57.3%-1.2%-2.6%6.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.5%9.6%12.3%-0.3%-0.6%1.5%
Op Mgn LTM14.8%-0.0%9.0%11.2%8.3%9.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg14.4%2.9%9.4%12.3%8.6%9.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.1%-1.4%0.6%-0.4%0.2%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM16.4%4.6%9.5%9.4%10.0%9.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg16.3%8.4%13.6%10.2%11.0%11.0%
FCF/Rev LTM8.3%-1.1%4.2%-3.6%6.8%4.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg8.7%2.8%6.8%-0.7%6.8%6.8%

Valuation

PKGIPSONGPKGEFMedian
NamePackagin.Internat.Sonoco P.Graphic .Greif  
Mkt Cap18.120.44.34.64.04.6
P/S2.21.00.60.70.80.8
P/EBIT15.7-145.89.76.612.49.7
P/E21.8-19.26.811.421.211.4
P/CFO13.620.66.37.28.28.2
Total Yield6.9%-1.6%19.5%11.0%7.8%7.8%
Dividend Yield2.3%3.6%4.8%2.2%3.1%3.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg4.3%3.8%7.2%-0.6%9.1%4.3%
D/E0.20.41.31.00.70.7
Net D/E0.20.41.21.00.70.7

Returns

PKGIPSONGPKGEFMedian
NamePackagin.Internat.Sonoco P.Graphic .Greif  
1M Rtn3.5%5.5%7.1%0.6%15.1%5.5%
3M Rtn-4.0%-16.6%-7.7%-21.8%15.5%-7.7%
6M Rtn10.0%-14.2%1.8%-26.0%11.0%1.8%
12M Rtn-10.3%-27.1%-10.3%-44.8%10.7%-10.3%
3Y Rtn68.7%24.5%-17.5%-23.3%14.2%14.2%
1M Excs Rtn2.8%4.7%6.3%-0.2%14.4%4.7%
3M Excs Rtn-6.2%-18.2%-8.3%-23.0%13.4%-8.3%
6M Excs Rtn-2.4%-26.6%-10.6%-38.4%-1.4%-10.6%
12M Excs Rtn-23.5%-38.6%-23.9%-57.0%-3.2%-23.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-6.3%-47.9%-87.8%-94.7%-56.5%-56.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Packaging7,1367,7817,0535,9205,905
Paper595622600675964
Corporate and Other248243786495
Elimination of intersegment sales-176-168   
Total7,8028,4787,7306,6586,964


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Packaging1,0741,4241,306830963
Paper11910339-20175
Corporate and Other-118-106-104-86-85
Elimination of intersegment sales 0   
Total1,0751,4211,2417241,054


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Packaging6,9046,9866,6035,7445,492
Corporate and Other1,3936148351,192953
Paper384403399497791
Elimination of intersegment sales 0   
Total8,6818,0047,8377,4337,236


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,452,986
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520250.6%
Average Daily Volume683,615
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.59
Basic Shares Quantity89,400,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.7%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/23/2025-4.0%-8.0%-7.5%
7/24/20250.3%-5.9%3.3%
4/23/20252.2%0.5%4.2%
1/29/2025-0.4%-2.2%-0.9%
10/23/2024-0.5%0.1%7.3%
7/24/20240.5%3.4%4.4%
4/23/20241.8%1.2%6.1%
1/25/20240.2%-5.0%1.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111314
# Negative131110
Median Positive1.4%3.3%3.9%
Median Negative-1.4%-2.2%-3.8%
Max Positive2.6%8.1%15.6%
Max Negative-5.1%-8.0%-13.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231103202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023804202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0KOWLZAN MARK WChairman & CEO9152025Sell215.9725,0005,399,25094,460,527Form
1Vaughn JosephSVP12042024Sell244.892,300563,2532,252,275Form