Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.7%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 85%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 43%
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -36%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.2%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Renewable Energy Transition, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include EV Manufacturing, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.7%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 43%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Renewable Energy Transition, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include EV Manufacturing, Show more.
3 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
4 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -36%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 85%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.2%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

KALU Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Kaiser Aluminum reported strong Third Quarter 2024 financial results. The company's net sales reached $748 million and conversion revenue was $362 million, with net income reported at $12 million. Adjusted net income was $8 million, and adjusted EBITDA increased to $50 million, demonstrating a positive financial performance.

2. Diluted earnings per share significantly improved in Q3 2024. Kaiser Aluminum reported $0.74 net income per diluted share for the third quarter of 2024, an increase from $0.34 in the prior year period. Adjusted net income per diluted share also rose to $0.51 from $0.46 in the prior year.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
KALU Return-8%-2%-16%-2%3%46%11%
Peers Return13%59%-31%23%4%46%130%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
KALU Win Rate50%42%50%42%50%70% 
Peers Win Rate60%56%44%50%46%70% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
KALU Max Drawdown-53%-12%-33%-25%-15%-28% 
Peers Max Drawdown-64%-14%-47%-26%-27%-29% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AA, CENX, CSTM, KALU.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventKALUS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-61.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven157.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-54.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven120.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven147 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-27.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven38.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven358 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-82.5%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven471.4%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2713 days1480 days

Compare to AA, CENX, CSTM, KALU


In The Past

Kaiser Aluminum's stock fell -61.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/11/2021. A -61.1% loss requires a 157.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Kaiser Aluminum (KALU)

Better Bets than Kaiser Aluminum (KALU)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to KALU. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Kaiser Aluminum

Peers to compare with:

Financials

KALUAACENXCSTMMedian
NameKaiser A.Alcoa Century .Constell. 
Mkt Price104.0944.1030.9417.9837.52
Mkt Cap1.711.42.92.52.7
Rev LTM3,20912,8682,5257,9695,589
Op Inc LTM1441,337174344259
FCF LTM13519-38-40-12
FCF 3Y Avg5-59-42-16-29
CFO LTM1751,06341332254
CFO 3Y Avg16949344362266

Growth & Margins

KALUAACENXCSTMMedian
NameKaiser A.Alcoa Century .Constell. 
Rev Chg LTM7.7%16.9%20.1%6.5%12.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-2.2%0.5%-2.9%-1.4%-1.8%
Rev Chg Q12.8%3.1%17.3%20.2%15.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.1%0.7%3.8%4.8%3.5%
Op Mgn LTM4.5%10.4%6.9%4.3%5.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.5%3.2%3.5%4.4%3.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.0%-1.8%-0.5%0.9%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM5.5%8.3%1.6%4.2%4.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg5.4%4.0%2.0%4.6%4.3%
FCF/Rev LTM0.4%4.0%-1.5%-0.5%-0.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg0.2%-0.8%-1.9%-0.2%-0.5%

Valuation

KALUAACENXCSTMMedian
NameKaiser A.Alcoa Century .Constell. 
Mkt Cap1.711.42.92.52.7
P/S0.40.71.10.30.5
P/EBIT8.05.623.86.77.3
P/E14.77.432.218.316.5
P/CFO7.18.067.16.27.6
Total Yield7.8%14.7%3.1%5.5%6.7%
Dividend Yield1.0%1.2%0.0%0.0%0.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg0.5%-1.9%-4.4%-0.8%-1.4%
D/E0.90.30.21.00.6
Net D/E0.80.10.21.00.5

Returns

KALUAACENXCSTMMedian
NameKaiser A.Alcoa Century .Constell. 
1M Rtn11.6%18.9%0.7%10.9%11.2%
3M Rtn38.8%42.1%39.6%30.0%39.2%
6M Rtn37.0%62.1%56.8%39.6%48.2%
12M Rtn30.6%-2.7%29.2%46.7%29.9%
3Y Rtn31.1%-9.2%226.7%45.2%38.2%
1M Excs Rtn11.6%18.9%0.7%10.9%11.2%
3M Excs Rtn33.0%36.0%35.1%23.5%34.1%
6M Excs Rtn22.2%47.4%42.1%24.9%33.5%
12M Excs Rtn19.7%-17.4%22.0%33.1%20.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-35.7%-74.3%213.0%-20.6%-28.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment3,0873,4282,6221,1731,514
Total3,0873,4282,6221,1731,514


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity514,370
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120254.7%
Average Daily Volume150,708
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.41
Basic Shares Quantity16,192,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251023202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025724202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025424202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024220202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241024202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024726202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024425202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023223202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231026202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023728202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023428202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221025202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022425202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021