Royal Gold (RGLD)
Market Price (5/13/2026): $245.36 | Market Cap: $20.8 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Gold
Royal Gold (RGLD)
Market Price (5/13/2026): $245.36Market Cap: $20.8 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Gold
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 71% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 64% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 66% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Resource & Commodity Markets. Themes include Precious Metals Investment, and Resource Financing Solutions. | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -19% Key risksRGLD key risks include [1] its lack of control over the third-party mining operations it relies on for revenue and [2] a significant concentration of revenue from a limited number of key properties. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 71% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 64% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 66% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Resource & Commodity Markets. Themes include Precious Metals Investment, and Resource Financing Solutions. |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -19% |
| Key risksRGLD key risks include [1] its lack of control over the third-party mining operations it relies on for revenue and [2] a significant concentration of revenue from a limited number of key properties. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Royal Gold reported a significant miss in its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS). On February 18, 2026, the company announced an EPS of $1.92 for Q4 2025, falling short of analysts' consensus estimates of $2.66 by 27.82%. This substantial earnings miss likely contributed to negative investor sentiment early in the specified period.
2. A notable decline in gold prices followed a January 2026 peak. The price of gold reached an all-time high of $5,595.42 on January 29, 2026, but then experienced a sharp decline of almost $500 on January 30, 2026. This downward trend continued into the period, with gold prices decreasing from $5,277.89 on February 1, 2026, to $4,610.85 by May 1, 2026. This macroeconomic factor directly impacts Royal Gold's revenue, as the company operates a gold streaming and royalty business. The broader Precious Metals Royalty and Streaming Index also declined by 16.52% in March 2026, indicating a sector-wide downturn.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -6.7% change in RGLD stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -22.4% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 262.84 | 245.35 | -6.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 858 | 1,306 | 52.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 56.0% | 48.5% | -13.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 36.0 | 32.8 | -8.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 66 | 85 | -22.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -6.7% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RGLD | -6.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.0% | 51.8% |
| Sector (XLB) | 6.3% | 68.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 40.9% change in RGLD stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 63.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 174.10 | 245.35 | 40.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 799 | 1,306 | 63.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 56.2% | 48.5% | -13.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.5 | 32.8 | 28.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 66 | 85 | -22.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 40.9% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RGLD | 40.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.8% | 45.6% |
| Sector (XLB) | 22.9% | 63.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 35.5% change in RGLD stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 81.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 181.12 | 245.35 | 35.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 719 | 1,306 | 81.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 46.2% | 48.5% | 5.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 35.8 | 32.8 | -8.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 66 | 85 | -22.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 35.5% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RGLD | 35.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 34.6% | 21.0% |
| Sector (XLB) | 26.7% | 43.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 91.7% change in RGLD stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 116.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 127.97 | 245.35 | 91.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 603 | 1,306 | 116.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 39.6% | 48.5% | 22.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 35.1 | 32.8 | -6.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 66 | 85 | -22.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 91.7% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RGLD | 91.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 84.4% | 27.1% |
| Sector (XLB) | 37.3% | 42.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RGLD Return | 0% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 70% | 11% | 146% |
| Peers Return | -1% | 3% | -7% | 4% | 128% | 23% | 176% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 97% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RGLD Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 42% | 58% | 67% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 53% | 42% | 50% | 73% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RGLD Max Drawdown | -12% | -17% | -8% | -16% | 0% | -3% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -23% | -18% | -18% | -21% | -0% | -4% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: FNV, TFPM, OR, SSRM. See RGLD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/12/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | RGLD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -16.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 60 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -15.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 45 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -34.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 29 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -22.9% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.7% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 152 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -53.6% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 115.7% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -66.6% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 199.4% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 168 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Royal Gold's stock fell -2.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 2.9% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | RGLD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -34.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 29 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -22.9% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.7% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 152 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -53.6% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 115.7% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -66.6% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 199.4% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 168 days | 15 days |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | ||
| % Loss | -27.4% | -0.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.7% | 0.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 44 days | 1 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -23.6% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.8% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 8 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Royal Gold's stock fell -2.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 2.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Royal Gold (RGLD)
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Here are a few brief analogies for Royal Gold (RGLD):
Royal Gold is like a specialized real estate investment trust (REIT), but for mineral properties. Instead of owning buildings and collecting rent, they provide capital to mining companies and receive a percentage of the metals produced from those mines.
Think of it like a publishing house that gives authors an advance and then receives a percentage of every book sold. Royal Gold provides upfront financing to mining companies and gets a share of the gold, silver, and other metals they produce.
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- Precious Metal Stream Interests: Rights to purchase a fixed percentage of future metal production from mines in exchange for upfront payments and ongoing per-unit payments.
- Royalty Interests: Rights to receive a percentage of revenue or production from mining operations.
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Royal Gold (RGLD) operates as a streaming and royalty company. Its business model involves providing upfront financing to mining companies in exchange for a percentage of future metal production (a "stream") or a percentage of future revenue (a "royalty"). Royal Gold does not operate mines itself.
When Royal Gold receives physical metals (primarily gold, silver, copper, and other base metals) from its stream agreements, it then sells these commodities into the global market. Therefore, Royal Gold primarily sells to other companies.
However, due to the nature of selling fungible commodities into a highly liquid, global market, Royal Gold typically does not have "major customers" in the traditional sense (i.e., specific companies that account for a significant portion of its sales revenue). Its sales are broadly distributed to various participants in the metals market, which typically include:
- Refiners
- Smelters
- Metal traders and brokers
These transactions are business-to-business (B2B), but specific customer names are generally not disclosed by Royal Gold because they are not material to its operations, given the commodity nature of its sales.
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William H. Heissenbuttel, President and Chief Executive OfficerMr. Heissenbuttel has served as President and Chief Executive Officer of Royal Gold since January 2020. He joined the company in 2006 and has held various roles including Chief Financial Officer and Vice President Strategy, Vice President Corporate Development, and Vice President Operations. With over 36 years of corporate finance experience, including 30 years in the metals and mining industry, he previously held senior positions at N M Rothschild & Sons (Denver) Inc., ABN AMRO Bank N.V., and Chemical Bank Manufacturers Hanover.
Paul K. Libner, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial OfficerMr. Libner was promoted to Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer in March 2024, having previously served as Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer since January 2020. He joined Royal Gold in 2004, serving as Controller and Treasurer, and then as Controller. Before joining Royal Gold, he began his career with Ernst & Young, providing audit and business advisory services, and later held various finance and accounting roles within the financial services industry.
Dr. Martin Raffield, PhD, Senior Vice President, OperationsDr. Raffield was promoted to Senior Vice President, Operations in March 2024, after joining Royal Gold in January 2022 as Vice President, Operations. His experience prior to Royal Gold includes operating an independent consulting company, serving as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of Harte Gold Corp., and holding Executive Vice President and Chief Technical Officer, and Senior Vice President, Project Development and Technical Services roles at Golden Star Resources.
Daniel Breeze, Senior Vice President, Corporate Development, RGLD Gold AGMr. Breeze has been the Senior Vice President, Corporate Development of Royal Gold's wholly-owned subsidiary, RGLD Gold AG, since March 2024. He previously served as Vice President Corporate Development for RGLD Gold AG from January 2019 to February 2024. Before joining Royal Gold, Mr. Breeze worked for Bank of Montreal as Managing Director, Equities, focusing on the mining sector, and was also with UBS Investment Bank's Equities Group. He began his career in geotechnical and mining at Golder Associates.
Randy Shefman, Senior Vice President and General CounselMr. Shefman serves as Senior Vice President and General Counsel. He joined Royal Gold in 2011 as Associate General Counsel. With 20 years of legal experience, he has handled international transactions in the mining, oil and gas, and power sectors. Prior to Royal Gold, he practiced law with several regional and international law firms, including LeBouef Lamb Greene & MacRae, Holland & Hart, and Hogan Lovells.
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Here are the key risks to Royal Gold's business: * Metal Price Volatility: Royal Gold's revenue is highly dependent on the market prices of precious metals, primarily gold, which accounted for 78% of its revenue in Q3 2025. Significant fluctuations or declines in the prices of gold, silver, copper, and other metals directly impact the company's financial performance and cash flow. While its streaming model offers some buffer against mining operational costs, revenue upside can quickly reverse with price drops. * Reliance on Third-Party Operators and Jurisdictional Risks: As a non-operating company, Royal Gold relies on the performance and decisions of third-party mining companies that operate the properties from which it derives streams and royalties. This limits Royal Gold's control over operational aspects, production levels, and project development, exposing it to risks such as geological challenges, operational failures, labor disputes, regulatory changes, and environmental issues at the underlying mines. Furthermore, a portion of its assets are located in jurisdictions with higher geopolitical risk, which could impact operations or the security of its interests. * Project-Specific and Integration Risks: Despite a diversified portfolio, Royal Gold has a concentration of revenue from a limited number of key properties. Adverse developments at these significant sites, such as production delays (e.g., delays in gold delivery from the Constancia stream) or operational issues (e.g., ongoing issues with silver recovery at Pueblo Viejo), can materially affect the company's financial results. Additionally, recent major acquisitions, like Sandstorm Gold and Horizon Copper, introduce integration risks, requiring flawless execution to realize projected long-term cash flows and manage the associated debt load.AI Analysis | Feedback
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Royal Gold (symbol: RGLD) acquires and manages precious metal streams, royalties, and related interests across various commodities. While the market size for "streams and royalties" as a specific financial product is not readily quantifiable, the addressable markets for the main underlying commodities that drive Royal Gold's revenue are substantial on a global scale.
The estimated global market sizes for these commodities are as follows:
- Gold: The global gold market was valued at approximately USD 3.2 trillion in 2023.
- Silver: The global silver market had a valuation of approximately USD 28.9 billion in 2023.
- Copper: The global copper market size was valued at approximately USD 308.67 billion in 2023.
- Nickel: The global nickel alloys market size was valued at approximately USD 12.8 billion in 2023.
- Zinc: The global zinc metal market size was valued at approximately USD 39.2 billion in 2023.
- Lead: The global lead market size was evaluated at approximately USD 24 billion in 2023.
- Cobalt: Cobalt demand reached close to 200 kilotonnes (kt) globally in 2023, with the global cobalt market generating a revenue of approximately USD 16.96 billion in 2024.
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Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) is positioned for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through a combination of strategic portfolio enhancements, increased production from key assets, and a favorable precious metal price environment.
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth:
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Strategic Acquisitions and Portfolio Expansion: Royal Gold has recently completed significant acquisitions, including Sandstorm Gold, Horizon Copper, and a gold stream on the Kansanshi mine, which have materially boosted its cash flow and revenue. The integration of these newly acquired portfolios is largely complete and is expected to enhance long-term portfolio diversification and duration, contributing significantly to future revenue streams.
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Increased Production and Development at Principal Properties: Growth is anticipated from the ramp-up and expansion of several key operating assets and development projects. This includes the expansion at Pueblo Viejo, which is expected to increase revenue generation, including anticipated increases in silver recoveries in late 2025. The Khoemacau expansion project, with first concentrate production expected in 2028 and projected silver production attributable to Royal Gold of 1.45 million to 1.55 million ounces in 2026, will also be a significant contributor. Additionally, commercial production at the Back River (Goose Project) commenced in October 2025, with anticipated gold production estimates of approximately 250,000 ounces in 2026 and 330,000 ounces in 2027. The blended royalty rate at Cortez is also expected to increase, averaging 3.5% to 4% over production in 2026, up from 2.6% in 2025. Contributions from the Kansanshi gold stream are projected at 26,000 to 31,000 attributable gold ounces in 2026. Exploration success, such as at Fourmile, also presents future upside potential.
-
Favorable Precious Metal Price Environment: Sustained strong prices for gold, silver, and copper are a direct driver of Royal Gold's revenue. The company's stream and royalty model provides high leverage to commodity price movements. In 2025, higher average metal prices were a major factor in revenue increases, with gold, silver, and copper prices showing significant year-over-year growth in Q4 2025, and strong gold prices supporting an adjusted EBITDA margin of 82%.
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Capital Allocation Decisions of Royal Gold (RGLD) Over the Last 3-5 Years
Share Repurchases
- Royal Gold reported a buyback yield of 0.0% for the latest twelve months and for fiscal years ending June 2020 to 2024, indicating no significant share repurchases during this period.
Share Issuance
- In July 2025, Royal Gold entered a merger agreement to acquire Sandstorm Gold Ltd. in an all-share transaction valued at approximately $3.5 billion, resulting in the issuance of Royal Gold shares to Sandstorm shareholders.
Outbound Investments
- In July 2025, Royal Gold announced agreements to acquire Sandstorm Gold Ltd. for approximately $3.5 billion, primarily through Royal Gold shares, and Horizon Copper Corp. for $196 million in cash, significantly expanding and diversifying its portfolio.
- In May 2025, the company acquired a gold stream agreement and a net smelter return royalty agreement on the Warintza Project in Ecuador for a total cash consideration of $200 million.
- Royal Gold also acquired a gold stream on the producing Kansanshi mine, which proved to be a meaningful acquisition and contributed to revenue starting in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- As a precious metals streaming and royalty company, Royal Gold's business model is focused on acquiring and managing royalty and stream interests, thus generally minimizing the operational risks and capital expenditures typically associated with direct mining activities.
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| 03272026 | IFF | International Flavors & Fragrances | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -1.1% | -1.1% | -3.0% |
| 03132026 | IP | International Paper | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -18.3% | -18.3% | -18.3% |
| 03062026 | ARIS | Aris Mining | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.4% | -7.4% | -16.7% |
| 10242025 | RGLD | Royal Gold | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 38.8% | 28.4% | -7.3% |
| 02292020 | RGLD | Royal Gold | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 41.1% | 8.6% | -27.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 39.61 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.4 |
| Rev LTM | 1,306 |
| Op Inc LTM | 698 |
| FCF LTM | 141 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 152 |
| CFO LTM | 654 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 398 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 63.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 26.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 86.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 17.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 79.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 46.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 64.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 58.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 79.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 78.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.4 |
| P/S | 16.1 |
| P/Op Inc | 27.0 |
| P/EBIT | 24.8 |
| P/E | 31.9 |
| P/CFO | 24.1 |
| Total Yield | 3.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.6% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 22.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 77.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 122.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -8.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -13.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 14.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 30.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 32.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $245.35 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 19.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/26/1990 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -19.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $252.03 | $221.03 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -2.7% | 11.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 45.5% | 38.4% |
| Downside Capture | 239.85 | 119.27 |
| Upside Capture | 122.95 | 128.34 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 49.8% | 23.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.25 | 1.50 | 1.60 | 1.43 | 0.60 | 0.55 |
| Up Beta | 2.43 | 1.95 | 1.81 | 1.44 | 0.27 | 0.42 |
| Down Beta | 7.28 | 0.04 | 0.45 | 0.42 | 0.06 | 0.40 |
| Up Capture | 60% | 83% | 134% | 270% | 100% | 50% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 19 | 30 | 71 | 137 | 413 |
| Down Capture | 406% | 230% | 211% | 134% | 94% | 87% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 24 | 34 | 54 | 115 | 340 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RGLD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RGLD | 34.4% | 39.0% | 0.84 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 25.9% | 16.6% | 1.21 | 44.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 32.5% | 12.4% | 1.98 | 23.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 41.3% | 26.9% | 1.26 | 72.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 50.3% | 18.5% | 2.06 | 10.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.8% | 13.5% | 0.65 | 23.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -21.0% | 41.7% | -0.46 | 22.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RGLD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RGLD | 17.7% | 31.2% | 0.56 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 6.0% | 18.9% | 0.21 | 42.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.7% | 17.1% | 0.63 | 28.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.0% | 17.9% | 0.95 | 67.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.4% | 19.4% | 0.47 | 22.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.9% | 18.8% | 0.11 | 34.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.2% | 55.9% | 0.34 | 14.0% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RGLD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RGLD | 16.4% | 33.8% | 0.54 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 10.6% | 20.6% | 0.46 | 31.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 22.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.70 | 63.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 17.9% | 0.39 | 20.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 24.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.2% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 12.3% |
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Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/6/2026 | -1.8% | ||
| 1/13/2026 | 2.8% | 12.4% | 15.5% |
| 10/14/2025 | 0.1% | -2.7% | -6.1% |
| 7/8/2025 | -4.8% | -5.0% | -4.8% |
| 4/8/2025 | -1.0% | 15.8% | 16.4% |
| 1/14/2025 | 1.1% | 5.0% | 9.8% |
| 10/8/2024 | 0.6% | 4.0% | 8.3% |
| 7/9/2024 | 0.2% | 4.3% | -1.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 14 | 10 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 1.3% | 3.9% | 11.7% |
| Median Negative | -1.0% | -4.2% | -5.8% |
| Max Positive | 9.3% | 19.9% | 26.2% |
| Max Negative | -4.8% | -10.7% | -12.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/13/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shefman, Randy | SVP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 5112026 | 243.74 | 1,000 | 243,740 | 2,213,647 | Form |
| 2 | Isto, Mark | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 274.83 | 2,000 | 549,660 | 5,508,418 | Form | |
| 3 | Libner, Paul | SVP & CFO | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 283.47 | 3,200 | 907,119 | 4,526,240 | Form |
| 4 | Breeze, Daniel | SVP Corp Dev of RGLD Gold AG | Direct | Sell | 3022026 | 300.87 | 1,400 | 421,211 | 6,059,421 | Form |
| 5 | Hayes, William M | Direct | Sell | 2232026 | 277.07 | 4,173 | 1,156,213 | 1,698,162 | Form |
RGLD Trade Sentinel
OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The analysis yields a highly attractive probability-adjusted skew of 2.29x. This is driven by the combination of a 'RESILIENT' competitive moat (due to scale expansion) and a 'STRONG' secular tailwind in its underlying commodities. The transformative acquisitions provide a clear catalyst for growth that appears to outweigh the near-term, and likely temporary, operational friction from its legacy assets, justifying an OVERWEIGHT rating.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Cyclical / CommodityRoyal Gold's revenue is directly tied to the spot prices of gold, silver, and copper. Its financial performance is inextricably linked to the supply/demand balance and pricing cycles of these metals, fitting the 'Commodity Extractor (Price-Taker)' archetype.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The recent, large-scale acquisitions of Sandstorm Gold and Horizon Copper fundamentally transform Royal Gold's scale and future cash flow potential. This expanded asset base, acquired at a pivotal moment of strength in gold and copper markets, provides significant operating leverage to a bullish commodity cycle driven by safe-haven demand for gold and energy-transition/AI demand for copper.
- Closed acquisitions of Sandstorm Gold and Horizon Copper, expanding the portfolio to 393 interests.
- Market balance for both gold and copper is assessed as 'Bullish', with demand expected to outstrip supply.
- Analyst EPS estimates for the next fiscal year have increased by over 20% in the last 60 days, reflecting the impact of these acquisitions and strong prices.
- The business model provides high and stable Adjusted EBITDA margins consistently above 80%, insulating it from the direct cost inflation hitting miners.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary friction is the decelerating production volume from Royal Gold's existing key assets. This operational weakness, evidenced by a significant sequential decline in Q4 GEOs and specific operator guidance cuts, is currently being masked by record-high gold and copper prices. If commodity prices revert to the mean while operational issues persist, the company could face a dual headwind of lower volume and lower price, leading to significant earnings misses.
- Preliminary Q4 2025 stream sales volume (64,000 GEOs) was down significantly from 72,900 GEOs in Q3 2025.
- The operator of the Xavantina mine revised its 2025 production guidance downward.
- The Q3 2025 earnings report missed analyst consensus on both EPS and revenue, suggesting the market is sensitive to operational shortfalls despite high prices.
- Revenue composition is explicitly described as 'PRICE LED', with record Q3 revenue 'primarily from higher average gold, silver and copper prices'.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Equivalent Ounce (GEO) Sales Volume | Quarterly sequential growth | This is the primary indicator of operational health. A return to sequential growth would signal that the legacy portfolio is stabilizing and new assets are contributing, validating the 'Alpha Driver' thesis. |
| Debt Repayment on Revolving Credit Facility | Debt balance below $750M | Management's ability to quickly pay down the debt used for acquisitions demonstrates the strong cash-generating power of the combined entity and de-risks the balance sheet. |
| Spot Gold & Copper Prices | Gold > $4,500/oz, Copper > $5.50/Lbs | As a price-taker, the company's revenue is directly dependent on sustained high commodity prices to realize the full potential of its leveraged business model. |
M&A Growth vs. Organic Volume Decline
BULL VIEW
Large, accretive acquisitions of Sandstorm and Horizon dramatically increase scale, diversification, and future growth, making near-term organic volume softness irrelevant.
CORE TENSION
Whether transformative acquisitions can mask the decelerating production volume (GEOs) from the core, pre-existing asset portfolio.
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Q4 2025 preliminary stream sales were 64,000 GEOs, a significant sequential decline from 72,900 GEOs in Q3 2025, confirming the trend of decelerating production volume.
BEAR VIEW
Relying on high commodity prices and M&A to hide underlying weakness in GEO volume is unsustainable. Operator issues and asset depletion are real risks.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
February 18, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Release & 2026 Guidance Watch: Full year 2026 Gold Equivalent Ounce (GEO) production guidance. Must show growth over 2025's ~195k GEOs to validate M&A thesis. |
March 2026 | Investor Day & Long-Term Outlook Watch: Long-term (3-5 year) production and cash flow growth algorithm post-acquisitions. Clarity on synergy targets and debt reduction path. |
Next 3-6 Months | Geopolitical/Regulatory Update from Mexico Watch: Any news on mining law reform, new royalty rates, or windfall profit taxes that could impact the Peñasquito mine's economics. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-08-05 | Acquisition of Kansanshi Mine Gold Stream Details: Acquired a new gold stream on a world-class, long-life mine operated by First Quantum in Zambia, considered a future cornerstone asset. | Rose significantly by 2.40% $155.74 -> $159.47 |
2025-08-06 | Q2 2025 Earnings Release Details: Announced record quarterly financial results, with the conference call held on August 7th. | Flat (0.72%) $159.47 -> $160.62 |
2025-10-20 | Close of Sandstorm & Horizon Acquisitions Details: Completed the major strategic acquisitions of Sandstorm Gold and Horizon Copper, significantly expanding the company's asset portfolio. | Flat (0.19%) $193.34 -> $193.70 |
2025-11-05 | Q3 2025 Earnings Release Details: Reported record revenue of $252.1M but missed analyst consensus on both revenue and EPS. The market looked past the miss, focusing on high commodity prices. | Rose significantly by 2.51% $168.71 -> $172.94 |
2025-12-19 | Strategic Investment Restructuring Details: Announced agreements to restructure investments in Bear Creek Mining in exchange for increased royalty exposure on the Corani Project and Mercedes Mine. | Modest 1.82% gain $223.10 -> $227.15 |
2026-01-13 | Q4 2025 Preliminary Sales Update Details: Announced Q4 stream sales of 64,000 GEOs, a sequential decline. Also reported paying down $400M in debt since the Sandstorm acquisition. | Rose significantly by 2.83% $246.98 -> $253.98 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (3.4x S&P) with Spiking near-term fear. The Bearish sentiment, driven by decelerating volumes, necessitates a Conservative sizing to manage drawdown risk.
Diversification Alternatives
FNV
INDUSTRYHistorically larger scale and dominant position with global major miners. Offers a more established, potentially more stable, exposure to the same business model.
WPM
INDUSTRYOffers more pure-play exposure to precious metals (~98% of revenue) versus peers. Stock has shown exceptional price momentum over the past year.
Royal Gold is a specialized finance company for the mining sector that uses its balance sheet to acquire long-duration, high-margin cash flow streams, with its revenue directly tied to partner-operated production volumes and commodity prices.
Filter all news through the lens of portfolio growth and quality. Focus on acquisitions of new streams/royalties and positive operational updates from the operators of its key assets.
Announcements of new, accretive stream or royalty acquisitions; life-of-mine extensions or production expansions at key assets like Pueblo Viejo or Cortez; a sustained rise in gold and silver prices; successful integration of the Sandstorm and Horizon portfolios driving cost synergies.
Significant operational failures, prolonged strikes, or adverse political/regulatory changes at a principal mine (e.g., Pueblo Viejo, Andacollo, Mount Milligan); a sharp, sustained drop in gold prices; failure to replace production as existing streams mature or step-down.
Minor quarterly fluctuations in GEOs sold unless it indicates a systemic operational issue at a core asset; minor exploration updates from non-core properties; general news about the mining industry that doesn't directly impact its operating partners.
Repricing Catalyst
The successful integration and full-year contribution from the 'transformational' 2025 acquisitions of Sandstorm Gold and Horizon Copper, which significantly increased the number of producing assets and diversified the portfolio. This, combined with a full year of revenue from the new Kansanshi stream, is expected to drive significant revenue and cash flow growth in 2026.
Metal Streams
$686500.0B TTM (67% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Contractual rights to purchase gold, silver, and copper at fixed, low prices from specific mines.
Who Pays & How
Mining operators like Barrick Gold (Pueblo Viejo) and Centerra Gold (Mount Milligan) deliver physical metal. They accept a lower realized price on a portion of their production in exchange for large upfront cash payments to fund mine construction or expansion, which is less dilutive than issuing equity and more flexible than traditional debt.
Competition
Metal Royalties
$344000.0B TTM (33% of Total) · 100% MarginWhat It Is
Contractual rights to receive a percentage of the revenue or metal produced from a mining property, with no ongoing costs.
Who Pays & How
Mining operators like Barrick Gold (Cortez) pay a percentage of their revenue from specific mining claims. They grant these royalties in exchange for upfront capital or as part of property sales. This provides them with funding while offloading some commodity price risk.
Competition
External Quote Links
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| FinViz |
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