Royal Gold (RGLD)
Market Price (3/13/2026): $260.51 | Market Cap: $21.0 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Gold
Royal Gold (RGLD)
Market Price (3/13/2026): $260.51Market Cap: $21.0 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Gold
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 21x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 36x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 31x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 47x |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 65% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -45% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 68% | Key risksRGLD key risks include [1] its lack of control over the third-party mining operations it relies on for revenue and [2] a significant concentration of revenue from a limited number of key properties. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Resource & Commodity Markets. Themes include Precious Metals Investment, and Resource Financing Solutions. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 65% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 68% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Resource & Commodity Markets. Themes include Precious Metals Investment, and Resource Financing Solutions. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 21x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 36x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 31x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 47x |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -45% |
| Key risksRGLD key risks include [1] its lack of control over the third-party mining operations it relies on for revenue and [2] a significant concentration of revenue from a limited number of key properties. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Soaring Gold Prices Boosted Revenue. The price of gold, a dominant revenue driver for Royal Gold accounting for 78% of its total revenue, surged significantly during the period. Gold prices increased from approximately $3,979.27 per ounce on November 3, 2025, to over $5,100 per ounce, reaching $5,229.70 per ounce by March 11, 2026. This macroeconomic trend, driven by safe-haven demand amidst geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, directly translated to higher revenues for Royal Gold.
2. Record Financial Performance for 2025. Royal Gold reported record financial results for the full year 2025, with revenue reaching $1 billion, a 43% increase over 2024. Adjusted net income also saw a significant rise of 47% to $510 million. Notably, fourth-quarter 2025 revenue grew by an impressive 85% year-over-year to $375 million, surpassing analyst expectations despite a miss on earnings per share.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 32.7% change in RGLD stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 67.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 203.40 | 269.83 | 32.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 858 | 1,030 | 20.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 56.0% | 45.2% | -19.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 27.9 | 46.6 | 67.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 66 | 80 | -18.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 32.7% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RGLD | 32.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.5% | 33.5% |
| Sector (XLB) | 11.1% | 59.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 50.9% change in RGLD stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 78.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 178.79 | 269.83 | 50.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 799 | 1,030 | 28.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 56.2% | 45.2% | -19.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.2 | 46.6 | 78.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 66 | 80 | -18.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 50.9% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RGLD | 50.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.5% | 32.1% |
| Sector (XLB) | 8.2% | 53.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 85.3% change in RGLD stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 61.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 145.59 | 269.83 | 85.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 719 | 1,030 | 43.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 46.2% | 45.2% | -2.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 28.8 | 46.6 | 61.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 66 | 80 | -18.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 85.3% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RGLD | 85.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.9% |
| Sector (XLB) | 13.6% | 36.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 135.3% change in RGLD stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 70.8% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 114.67 | 269.83 | 135.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 603 | 1,030 | 70.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 39.6% | 45.2% | 14.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 31.5 | 46.6 | 48.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 66 | 80 | -18.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 135.3% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RGLD | 135.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.3% | 23.5% |
| Sector (XLB) | 28.1% | 37.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RGLD Return | 0% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 70% | 24% | 176% |
| Peers Return | -1% | 3% | -7% | 4% | 128% | 26% | 182% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -1% | 80% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RGLD Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 42% | 58% | 67% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 53% | 42% | 50% | 73% | 67% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RGLD Max Drawdown | -12% | -17% | -8% | -16% | 0% | -0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -23% | -18% | -18% | -21% | -0% | -1% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -2% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: FNV, TFPM, OR, SSRM. See RGLD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/12/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | RGLD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -40.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 729 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -43.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 36 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -25.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 217 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -41.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 32 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to FNV, TFPM, OR, SSRM
In The Past
Royal Gold's stock fell -40.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/1/2022. A -40.9% loss requires a 69.2% gain to breakeven.
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About Royal Gold (RGLD)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Royal Gold (RGLD):
- A REIT for gold mines.
- A McDonald's for mining royalties.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Gold: Royal Gold acquires a percentage of future gold production from mining operations through stream and royalty agreements, which it then sells on the open market.
- Silver: Through stream and royalty agreements, Royal Gold acquires a portion of future silver production from mines, which is subsequently sold.
- Copper: Royal Gold also obtains a share of future copper production from certain mining projects via stream and royalty agreements, for subsequent sale.
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Royal Gold (RGLD) Major Customers
Royal Gold (RGLD) is a precious metals stream and royalty company. It does not operate mines directly. Instead, it generates revenue in two primary ways: through royalty payments received from mine operators and by selling physical metal it receives from its stream agreements. When Royal Gold takes physical delivery of metals (such as gold, silver, copper, or nickel) under its stream agreements, it then sells this metal on the spot market. Therefore, Royal Gold sells primarily to other companies, not directly to individuals. Royal Gold's public filings do not disclose the specific names of its major customers for these physical metal sales. This is common for companies selling commodities into a liquid global market, where sales are often spread across multiple institutional buyers and no single buyer may represent a material concentration requiring individual disclosure. However, the customers are typically large, institutional players in the precious metals market. These generally fall into the following categories:- Bullion Banks and Investment Banks with Commodity Desks: These are major financial institutions that trade physical precious metals, provide financing, and offer storage solutions. They facilitate liquidity in the spot market and serve a wide range of clients from institutional investors to industrial users. Examples of such institutions globally include banks like JPMorgan Chase, HSBC, UBS, or Goldman Sachs, although Royal Gold does not name its specific counterparties.
- Precious Metal Refiners and Fabricators: These companies purchase raw or semi-processed precious metals for refining, further processing, and manufacturing into bars, coins, or industrial products for various industries (e.g., jewelry, electronics, dentistry).
- Large Commodity Trading Houses: Global firms specializing in the trading of various raw materials, including precious metals, which act as intermediaries between producers and industrial consumers or financial markets.
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- Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: GOLD)
- Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM)
- Teck Resources Limited (NYSE: TECK)
- Centerra Gold Inc. (TSX: CG)
- Khoemacau Copper Mining (Pty) Ltd.
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William H. Heissenbuttel, President and Chief Executive Officer
William H. Heissenbuttel, also known as Bill, was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Royal Gold in January 2020. He joined the company in 2006, initially as Manager Corporate Development. His previous roles at Royal Gold include Chief Financial Officer and Vice President Strategy from June 2018 to January 2020, Vice President Corporate Development from 2007 to June 2018, and Vice President Operations from 2015 to 2016. Mr. Heissenbuttel brings over 36 years of corporate finance experience, with 30 years specifically in project and corporate finance within the metals and mining industry. Before his tenure at Royal Gold, he held progressively senior positions at N M Rothschild & Sons (Denver) Inc., ABN AMRO Bank N.V., and Chemical Bank Manufacturers Hanover.
Paul Libner, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Paul Libner was promoted to Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer in March 2024. He possesses over 27 years of finance and accounting experience. Mr. Libner joined Royal Gold in 2004 and has held various financial leadership roles, including Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer from January 2020 to February 2024, Controller and Treasurer from June 2018 to January 2020, and Controller from 2004 to May 2018. Prior to joining Royal Gold, he gained experience at Ernst & Young.
Martin Raffield, Senior Vice President of Operations
Martin Raffield serves as the Senior Vice President of Operations for Royal Gold. He was a speaker during the company's Third Quarter 2025 earnings call.
Randy Shefman, Senior Vice President and General Counsel
Randy Shefman is the Senior Vice President and General Counsel at Royal Gold.
Dan Breeze, Senior Vice President, Corporate Development of RGLD Gold AG
Dan Breeze was promoted to Senior Vice President, Corporate Development of RGLD Gold AG, a wholly owned subsidiary of Royal Gold, in March 2024. He previously served as Vice President Corporate Development for RGLD Gold AG from January 2019 to February 2024. Mr. Breeze has more than 27 years of technical and commercial experience within international markets and has been a Director of the Denver Gold Group since January 2025.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The primary risks to Royal Gold's business are predominantly linked to its unique business model as a streaming and royalty company, which, while mitigating some operational aspects of traditional mining, introduces other significant exposures.
- Metal Price Volatility: Royal Gold's revenue and cash flow are highly sensitive to fluctuations in the market prices of precious metals, particularly gold, silver, and copper. As a streaming and royalty company, its income is directly tied to the value of the metals produced from the properties in which it holds interests. Any significant downturn in these commodity prices can materially and adversely affect its financial performance.
- Operational Performance and Lack of Control Over Mining Properties: Royal Gold holds non-operating interests in mining properties, meaning it has limited to no direct control over the exploration, development, or operation of these mines. The company's revenue relies entirely on the production success and operational decisions of third-party mining companies. This exposes Royal Gold to risks such as unexpected operational disruptions, failure of operators to develop properties in its best interest, inability to replace mineral reserves, and reliance on the accuracy of information provided by these operators.
- Concentration of Revenue from Key Properties: While Royal Gold aims for portfolio diversification, a substantial portion of its revenue can still originate from a limited number of key mining properties. Adverse events, operational issues, or reduced production at these significant assets can disproportionately impact Royal Gold's overall financial results, despite a broader portfolio.
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nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Royal Gold, Inc. (symbol: RGLD) is a streaming and royalty company that acquires and manages interests in precious metals, primarily gold, silver, and copper, from various mining operations worldwide. Its addressable markets are therefore the global markets for these commodities.
The estimated sizes for Royal Gold's main addressable markets are as follows:
- Gold: The global gold market was valued at approximately USD 291.68 billion in 2024. This market is projected to grow to about USD 400 billion by the end of 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.51% during the forecast period of 2025-2030. Another projection estimates the market could reach USD 457.91 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 5.8% from 2024 to 2032.
- Silver: The global silver market size was valued at approximately USD 87.12 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 202.07 billion by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 9.86% from 2025 to 2033. Other estimates for the global silver market size in 2024 include USD 22.50 billion, with a forecast to reach USD 34.94 billion by 2034 at a CAGR of 4.50%.
- Copper: The global copper market size was estimated at approximately USD 241.88 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 339.95 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 6.5% from 2025 to 2030. Other sources indicate the global copper market size was around USD 236.09 billion in 2024, expected to reach USD 362.28 billion by 2032 with a CAGR of 5.6%.
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Royal Gold (RGLD) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key factors:
- Higher Commodity Prices: Elevated and forecasted increases in gold, silver, and copper prices are significant revenue drivers. Royal Gold's Q3 2025 record revenue was partly attributed to higher gold and silver prices, and analysts project gold prices to remain strong, with some forecasts targeting $4,200-$4,700 by early 2026 and long-term averages around $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026.
- Strategic Acquisitions and Portfolio Expansion: Recent strategic acquisitions, including Sandstorm Gold, Horizon Copper, and the Constancia stream transaction, have expanded and diversified Royal Gold's portfolio. These additions are anticipated to enhance revenue and cash flow, positioning the company for continued growth and market appreciation.
- Mine Life Extensions and Increased Production from Key Assets: The extension of the Mount Milligan mine life from 2036 to 2045 is expected to provide long-term revenue generation from a significant asset. Additionally, higher production from assets like Peñasquito and the anticipated increase in gold production from Pueblo Viejo (targeting 800,000 ounces in 2026 post-expansion) are vital for future revenue growth.
- Contribution from New Producing Assets: Royal Gold has begun to recognize revenue from newly operational assets, such as the Cote Gold and Contango at Mancha. These new streams and royalties contribute to the company's diversified revenue profile and are expected to bolster growth in the coming years. The new Kansanshi gold stream is also highlighted as a growth factor.
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Share Issuance
- In October 2025, Royal Gold issued approximately 18.6 million common shares to Sandstorm Gold Ltd. shareholders as part of the acquisition of Sandstorm Gold Ltd., increasing its outstanding share count to approximately 84.4 million shares.
Outbound Investments
- Royal Gold completed the acquisition of Sandstorm Gold Ltd. for an equity value of approximately $3.5 billion and Horizon Copper Corp. for approximately $196 million in cash, with both transactions closing in October 2025.
- In 2025, Royal Gold secured a $1 billion gold stream on the Kansanshi mine in Zambia, financing this primarily with an $825 million draw on its revolving credit facility and $175 million from cash resources.
- In July 2022, Royal Gold acquired Great Bear Royalties for $200 million.
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01312026 | IP | International Paper | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 9.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| 01302026 | B | Barrick Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 11.7% | 11.7% | -4.0% |
| 12312025 | AMR | Alpha Metallurgical Resources | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | -18.6% | -18.6% | -18.6% |
| 12262025 | EMN | Eastman Chemical | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.9% | 18.9% | 0.0% |
| 12122025 | AMCR | Amcor | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 19.2% | 19.2% | -0.5% |
| 10242025 | RGLD | Royal Gold | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 64.6% | 64.6% | -7.3% |
| 02292020 | RGLD | Royal Gold | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 41.1% | 8.6% | -27.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 42.05 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.9 |
| Rev LTM | 1,030 |
| Op Inc LTM | 469 |
| FCF LTM | 98 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 112 |
| CFO LTM | 472 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 311 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 44.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 19.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 61.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 13.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 64.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 58.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 80.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 78.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 25.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.9 |
| P/S | 21.1 |
| P/EBIT | 32.2 |
| P/E | 38.4 |
| P/CFO | 30.8 |
| Total Yield | 3.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 23.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 30.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 107.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 136.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 31.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 29.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 86.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 77.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $269.83 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 17.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/26/1990 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -11.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $270.97 | $205.33 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -0.4% | 31.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 45.2% | 36.9% |
| Downside Capture | 105.61 | 37.75 |
| Upside Capture | 268.04 | 89.27 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 30.9% | 17.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.10 | 1.28 | 1.22 | 1.01 | 0.32 | 0.46 |
| Up Beta | 1.80 | 1.47 | 1.59 | 1.17 | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| Down Beta | 1.22 | 0.06 | -0.09 | -0.16 | 0.07 | 0.38 |
| Up Capture | 279% | 349% | 352% | 272% | 86% | 44% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 26 | 39 | 75 | 148 | 420 |
| Down Capture | 213% | 51% | 53% | 93% | 28% | 73% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 15 | 22 | 49 | 103 | 332 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RGLD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RGLD | 77.4% | 36.8% | 1.62 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 18.2% | 20.6% | 0.71 | 36.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.0% | 18.9% | 0.87 | 17.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 74.9% | 26.2% | 2.12 | 71.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.3% | 17.2% | 0.89 | 29.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 16.3% | 0.16 | 19.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -16.1% | 44.2% | -0.27 | 22.1% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RGLD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RGLD | 22.3% | 30.5% | 0.70 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 7.7% | 18.9% | 0.31 | 41.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.2% | 17.0% | 0.61 | 28.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.2% | 17.3% | 1.14 | 67.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.9% | 19.0% | 0.46 | 27.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 18.8% | 0.17 | 33.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.3% | 56.8% | 0.35 | 14.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RGLD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RGLD | 19.9% | 33.7% | 0.63 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 10.9% | 20.6% | 0.47 | 30.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.7% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 21.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.6% | 15.6% | 0.77 | 63.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.8% | 17.6% | 0.41 | 23.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.5% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 23.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.7% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 12.3% |
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Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/13/2026 | 2.8% | 12.4% | 15.5% |
| 10/14/2025 | 0.1% | -2.7% | -6.1% |
| 7/8/2025 | -4.8% | -5.0% | -4.8% |
| 4/8/2025 | -1.0% | 15.8% | 16.4% |
| 1/14/2025 | 1.1% | 5.0% | 9.8% |
| 10/8/2024 | 0.6% | 4.0% | 8.3% |
| 7/9/2024 | 0.2% | 4.3% | -1.5% |
| 4/9/2024 | 1.8% | -1.3% | 1.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 14 | 10 |
| # Negative | 9 | 10 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 1.3% | 3.9% | 11.7% |
| Median Negative | -0.9% | -4.2% | -5.8% |
| Max Positive | 9.3% | 19.9% | 26.2% |
| Max Negative | -4.8% | -10.7% | -12.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/13/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vance, Ronald J | Family Trust | Sell | 12172025 | 218.53 | 300 | 65,559 | 1,841,771 | Form | |
| 2 | Vance, Ronald J | Family Trust | Sell | 12122025 | 218.29 | 500 | 109,145 | 1,905,235 | Form | |
| 3 | Breeze, Daniel | SVP Corp Dev of RGLD Gold AG | Direct | Sell | 12042025 | 202.23 | 970 | 196,163 | 3,925,082 | Form |
| 4 | Libner, Paul | SVP & CFO | Direct | Sell | 6102025 | 176.96 | 2,000 | 353,920 | 3,494,783 | Form |
| 5 | Shefman, Randy | SVP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 3172025 | 154.98 | 1,300 | 201,474 | 1,450,613 | Form |
RGLD Trade Sentinel
OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The analysis yields a highly attractive probability-adjusted skew of 2.29x. This is driven by the combination of a 'RESILIENT' competitive moat (due to scale expansion) and a 'STRONG' secular tailwind in its underlying commodities. The transformative acquisitions provide a clear catalyst for growth that appears to outweigh the near-term, and likely temporary, operational friction from its legacy assets, justifying an OVERWEIGHT rating.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Cyclical / CommodityRoyal Gold's revenue is directly tied to the spot prices of gold, silver, and copper. Its financial performance is inextricably linked to the supply/demand balance and pricing cycles of these metals, fitting the 'Commodity Extractor (Price-Taker)' archetype.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The recent, large-scale acquisitions of Sandstorm Gold and Horizon Copper fundamentally transform Royal Gold's scale and future cash flow potential. This expanded asset base, acquired at a pivotal moment of strength in gold and copper markets, provides significant operating leverage to a bullish commodity cycle driven by safe-haven demand for gold and energy-transition/AI demand for copper.
- Closed acquisitions of Sandstorm Gold and Horizon Copper, expanding the portfolio to 393 interests.
- Market balance for both gold and copper is assessed as 'Bullish', with demand expected to outstrip supply.
- Analyst EPS estimates for the next fiscal year have increased by over 20% in the last 60 days, reflecting the impact of these acquisitions and strong prices.
- The business model provides high and stable Adjusted EBITDA margins consistently above 80%, insulating it from the direct cost inflation hitting miners.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary friction is the decelerating production volume from Royal Gold's existing key assets. This operational weakness, evidenced by a significant sequential decline in Q4 GEOs and specific operator guidance cuts, is currently being masked by record-high gold and copper prices. If commodity prices revert to the mean while operational issues persist, the company could face a dual headwind of lower volume and lower price, leading to significant earnings misses.
- Preliminary Q4 2025 stream sales volume (64,000 GEOs) was down significantly from 72,900 GEOs in Q3 2025.
- The operator of the Xavantina mine revised its 2025 production guidance downward.
- The Q3 2025 earnings report missed analyst consensus on both EPS and revenue, suggesting the market is sensitive to operational shortfalls despite high prices.
- Revenue composition is explicitly described as 'PRICE LED', with record Q3 revenue 'primarily from higher average gold, silver and copper prices'.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Equivalent Ounce (GEO) Sales Volume | Quarterly sequential growth | This is the primary indicator of operational health. A return to sequential growth would signal that the legacy portfolio is stabilizing and new assets are contributing, validating the 'Alpha Driver' thesis. |
| Debt Repayment on Revolving Credit Facility | Debt balance below $750M | Management's ability to quickly pay down the debt used for acquisitions demonstrates the strong cash-generating power of the combined entity and de-risks the balance sheet. |
| Spot Gold & Copper Prices | Gold > $4,500/oz, Copper > $5.50/Lbs | As a price-taker, the company's revenue is directly dependent on sustained high commodity prices to realize the full potential of its leveraged business model. |
M&A Growth vs. Organic Volume Decline
BULL VIEW
Large, accretive acquisitions of Sandstorm and Horizon dramatically increase scale, diversification, and future growth, making near-term organic volume softness irrelevant.
CORE TENSION
Whether transformative acquisitions can mask the decelerating production volume (GEOs) from the core, pre-existing asset portfolio.
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Q4 2025 preliminary stream sales were 64,000 GEOs, a significant sequential decline from 72,900 GEOs in Q3 2025, confirming the trend of decelerating production volume.
BEAR VIEW
Relying on high commodity prices and M&A to hide underlying weakness in GEO volume is unsustainable. Operator issues and asset depletion are real risks.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
February 18, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Release & 2026 Guidance Watch: Full year 2026 Gold Equivalent Ounce (GEO) production guidance. Must show growth over 2025's ~195k GEOs to validate M&A thesis. |
March 2026 | Investor Day & Long-Term Outlook Watch: Long-term (3-5 year) production and cash flow growth algorithm post-acquisitions. Clarity on synergy targets and debt reduction path. |
Next 3-6 Months | Geopolitical/Regulatory Update from Mexico Watch: Any news on mining law reform, new royalty rates, or windfall profit taxes that could impact the Peñasquito mine's economics. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-08-05 | Acquisition of Kansanshi Mine Gold Stream Details: Acquired a new gold stream on a world-class, long-life mine operated by First Quantum in Zambia, considered a future cornerstone asset. | Rose significantly by 2.40% $155.74 -> $159.47 |
2025-08-06 | Q2 2025 Earnings Release Details: Announced record quarterly financial results, with the conference call held on August 7th. | Flat (0.72%) $159.47 -> $160.62 |
2025-10-20 | Close of Sandstorm & Horizon Acquisitions Details: Completed the major strategic acquisitions of Sandstorm Gold and Horizon Copper, significantly expanding the company's asset portfolio. | Flat (0.19%) $193.34 -> $193.70 |
2025-11-05 | Q3 2025 Earnings Release Details: Reported record revenue of $252.1M but missed analyst consensus on both revenue and EPS. The market looked past the miss, focusing on high commodity prices. | Rose significantly by 2.51% $168.71 -> $172.94 |
2025-12-19 | Strategic Investment Restructuring Details: Announced agreements to restructure investments in Bear Creek Mining in exchange for increased royalty exposure on the Corani Project and Mercedes Mine. | Modest 1.82% gain $223.10 -> $227.15 |
2026-01-13 | Q4 2025 Preliminary Sales Update Details: Announced Q4 stream sales of 64,000 GEOs, a sequential decline. Also reported paying down $400M in debt since the Sandstorm acquisition. | Rose significantly by 2.83% $246.98 -> $253.98 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (3.4x S&P) with Spiking near-term fear. The Bearish sentiment, driven by decelerating volumes, necessitates a Conservative sizing to manage drawdown risk.
Diversification Alternatives
FNV
INDUSTRYHistorically larger scale and dominant position with global major miners. Offers a more established, potentially more stable, exposure to the same business model.
WPM
INDUSTRYOffers more pure-play exposure to precious metals (~98% of revenue) versus peers. Stock has shown exceptional price momentum over the past year.
Royal Gold is a specialized finance company for the mining sector that uses its balance sheet to acquire long-duration, high-margin cash flow streams, with its revenue directly tied to partner-operated production volumes and commodity prices.
Filter all news through the lens of portfolio growth and quality. Focus on acquisitions of new streams/royalties and positive operational updates from the operators of its key assets.
Announcements of new, accretive stream or royalty acquisitions; life-of-mine extensions or production expansions at key assets like Pueblo Viejo or Cortez; a sustained rise in gold and silver prices; successful integration of the Sandstorm and Horizon portfolios driving cost synergies.
Significant operational failures, prolonged strikes, or adverse political/regulatory changes at a principal mine (e.g., Pueblo Viejo, Andacollo, Mount Milligan); a sharp, sustained drop in gold prices; failure to replace production as existing streams mature or step-down.
Minor quarterly fluctuations in GEOs sold unless it indicates a systemic operational issue at a core asset; minor exploration updates from non-core properties; general news about the mining industry that doesn't directly impact its operating partners.
Repricing Catalyst
The successful integration and full-year contribution from the 'transformational' 2025 acquisitions of Sandstorm Gold and Horizon Copper, which significantly increased the number of producing assets and diversified the portfolio. This, combined with a full year of revenue from the new Kansanshi stream, is expected to drive significant revenue and cash flow growth in 2026.
Metal Streams
$686500.0B TTM (67% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Contractual rights to purchase gold, silver, and copper at fixed, low prices from specific mines.
Who Pays & How
Mining operators like Barrick Gold (Pueblo Viejo) and Centerra Gold (Mount Milligan) deliver physical metal. They accept a lower realized price on a portion of their production in exchange for large upfront cash payments to fund mine construction or expansion, which is less dilutive than issuing equity and more flexible than traditional debt.
Competition
Metal Royalties
$344000.0B TTM (33% of Total) · 100% MarginWhat It Is
Contractual rights to receive a percentage of the revenue or metal produced from a mining property, with no ongoing costs.
Who Pays & How
Mining operators like Barrick Gold (Cortez) pay a percentage of their revenue from specific mining claims. They grant these royalties in exchange for upfront capital or as part of property sales. This provides them with funding while offloading some commodity price risk.
Competition
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