Royal Gold (RGLD)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $200.99 | Market Cap: $13.2 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Gold
Royal Gold (RGLD)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $200.99Market Cap: $13.2 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Gold
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.9%, Dist 3Y High is -2.9% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 15x |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 67% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -71% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 70% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Resource & Commodity Markets. Themes include Precious Metals Investment, and Resource Financing Solutions. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 67% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 70% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Resource & Commodity Markets. Themes include Precious Metals Investment, and Resource Financing Solutions. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.9%, Dist 3Y High is -2.9% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 15x |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -71% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
RGLD Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for Royal Gold (RGLD) stock movement between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025:
1. Gold Price Correction in October 2025
Royal Gold's stock experienced a significant decline of 12.86% in October 2025, primarily attributed to a correction in gold prices. After reaching a historical high just under $4,400 per ounce in mid-October, gold prices adjusted downward to the $3,950 per ounce area, negatively impacting precious metals royalty and streaming companies, including Royal Gold.
2. Q3 2025 Earnings Miss
On November 5, 2025, Royal Gold reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results, which included record revenue and operating cash flow. However, the company missed analyst consensus estimates for both earnings per share (EPS) at $2.06 versus an expected $2.30, and revenue at $250.23 million versus an expected $275.11 million. This earnings miss contributed to negative market sentiment.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RGLD Return | -12% | 0% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 53% | 76% |
| Peers Return | 19% | -2% | -11% | 26% | 24% | 126% | 268% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RGLD Win Rate | 25% | 67% | 50% | 42% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 42% | 42% | 52% | 55% | 50% | 84% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RGLD Max Drawdown | -43% | -12% | -17% | -8% | -16% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -21% | -12% | -28% | -14% | -18% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: IDCC, TFPM, NEM, AEM, B. See RGLD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | RGLD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -40.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 729 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -43.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 36 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -25.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 217 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -41.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 32 days | 1480 days |
Compare to IDCC, TFPM, NEM, AEM, B
In The Past
Royal Gold's stock fell -40.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/1/2022. A -40.9% loss requires a 69.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Would You Still Hold Royal Gold Stock If It Fell 30%? | Return | ||
| How Does Royal Gold Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | Peer Comparison | ||
| RGLD Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Royal Gold (RGLD) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Royal Gold (RGLD) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Royal Gold (RGLD) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Royal Gold (RGLD) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Royal Gold vs. InterDigital: Neither Seems Like A Good Bet | Peer Comparison | ||
| Royal Gold Price Volatility | Volatility | ||
| Fundamental Metrics: ... | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Royal Gold Stock May Still Have Room to Run | October 29th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to RGLD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | IDCC | InterDigital | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -3.1% | -3.1% | -6.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10242025 | RGLD | Royal Gold | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 9.7% | 9.7% | -7.3% |
| 02292020 | RGLD | Royal Gold | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 41.1% | 8.6% | -27.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | IDCC | InterDigital | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -3.1% | -3.1% | -6.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10242025 | RGLD | Royal Gold | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 9.7% | 9.7% | -7.3% |
| 02292020 | RGLD | Royal Gold | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 41.1% | 8.6% | -27.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Royal Gold
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 129.42 |
| Mkt Cap | 41.3 |
| Rev LTM | 5,748 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,899 |
| FCF LTM | 590 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 383 |
| CFO LTM | 673 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 503 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 28.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 24.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 27.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 52.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 41.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 3.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 70.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 62.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 28.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 41.3 |
| P/S | 8.8 |
| P/EBIT | 15.4 |
| P/E | 21.2 |
| P/CFO | 14.5 |
| Total Yield | 5.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 12.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 19.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 45.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 97.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 152.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 12.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 14.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 30.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 85.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 114.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2132025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2172022 | 10-KT 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |