Mercer International (MERC)
Market Price (7/15/2026): $0.5414 | Market Cap: $36.3 MilSector: Materials | Industry: Paper Products
Mercer International (MERC)
Market Price (7/15/2026): $0.5414Market Cap: $36.3 MilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Paper Products
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -72% Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 27% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Sustainable Packaging Materials, Waste-to-Energy Solutions, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -128%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -165% | Penny stockMkt Price is 0.5 Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -222 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -12% Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 4181% Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.5% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.0%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.4% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -1409% Key risksMERC key risks include [1] a highly leveraged balance sheet burdened by increased interest costs from recent debt refinancing and [2] the potential for cash flow to be insufficient to cover both interest expenses and capital expenditures. |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -72% |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 27% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Sustainable Packaging Materials, Waste-to-Energy Solutions, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -128%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -165% |
| Penny stockMkt Price is 0.5 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -222 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -12% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 4181% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.5% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.0%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.4% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -1409% |
| Key risksMERC key risks include [1] a highly leveraged balance sheet burdened by increased interest costs from recent debt refinancing and [2] the potential for cash flow to be insufficient to cover both interest expenses and capital expenditures. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Mercer International (MERC) stock has lost about 60% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mercer International reported a significant earnings miss and weak financial performance for fiscal Q1 2026. The company announced a net loss of $52.0 million, or $0.78 per share, on May 7, 2026, which substantially missed analysts' consensus estimates of -$0.74 EPS, and was 41.82% below some forecasts of -$0.55 EPS. Operating EBITDA declined significantly to $7.8 million in fiscal Q1 2026 from $47.1 million in fiscal Q1 2025. This weak performance was partly due to a $22.0 million non-cash inventory impairment.
2. Elevated fiber costs and persistent weak market conditions for pulp and lumber severely impacted profitability. Mercer International faced increased per-unit fiber costs for lumber production, which rose by approximately 36% compared to fiscal Q1 2025. The company also contended with oversupplied pulp markets and generally weak demand and pricing for both pulp and lumber. Total revenues for fiscal Q1 2026 decreased by approximately 3% year-over-year to $489.3 million, falling short of consensus estimates of $493 million.
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Mercer International (MERC) stock has lost about 60% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mercer International reported a significant earnings miss and weak financial performance for fiscal Q1 2026. The company announced a net loss of $52.0 million, or $0.78 per share, on May 7, 2026, which substantially missed analysts' consensus estimates of -$0.74 EPS, and was 41.82% below some forecasts of -$0.55 EPS. Operating EBITDA declined significantly to $7.8 million in fiscal Q1 2026 from $47.1 million in fiscal Q1 2025. This weak performance was partly due to a $22.0 million non-cash inventory impairment.
2. Elevated fiber costs and persistent weak market conditions for pulp and lumber severely impacted profitability. Mercer International faced increased per-unit fiber costs for lumber production, which rose by approximately 36% compared to fiscal Q1 2025. The company also contended with oversupplied pulp markets and generally weak demand and pricing for both pulp and lumber. Total revenues for fiscal Q1 2026 decreased by approximately 3% year-over-year to $489.3 million, falling short of consensus estimates of $493 million.
3. Concerns regarding liquidity were highlighted by the need for a credit facility waiver. Mercer International secured an extended waiver for its German revolving credit facility during fiscal Q1 2026 to address covenant compliance and provide flexibility to enhance its liquidity and financial condition. This action indicated financial strain and contributed to investor apprehension about the company's stability amidst challenging market conditions.
4. Analyst sentiment turned increasingly negative, contributing to a bearish outlook. Following the fiscal Q1 2026 results and ongoing market challenges, Wall Street analysts maintained a "Sell" consensus rating for Mercer International. The average analyst price target ranged significantly, with some forecasts as low as $0.50 and the lowest average consensus price target at $1.00, further exacerbating the downward pressure on the stock.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -61.4% change in MERC stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/14/2026 was primarily driven by a -61.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.42 | 0.55 | -61.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,868 | 1,850 | -0.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.1 | 0.0 | -61.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 67 | 67 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -61.4% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MERC | -61.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.6% | 22.8% |
| Sector (XLB) | 1.3% | 20.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -72.3% change in MERC stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/14/2026 was primarily driven by a -71.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.98 | 0.55 | -72.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,907 | 1,850 | -3.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.1 | 0.0 | -71.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 67 | 67 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -72.3% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MERC | -72.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.6% | 27.3% |
| Sector (XLB) | 12.2% | 23.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -84.4% change in MERC stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/14/2026 was primarily driven by a -83.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 3.50 | 0.55 | -84.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,997 | 1,850 | -7.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.1 | 0.0 | -83.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 67 | 67 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -84.4% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MERC | -84.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.7% | 32.4% |
| Sector (XLB) | 17.0% | 32.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -92.7% change in MERC stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/14/2026 was primarily driven by a -91.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.54 | 0.55 | -92.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,211 | 1,850 | -16.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.2 | 0.0 | -91.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 66 | 67 | -1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -92.7% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MERC | -92.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.6% | 31.5% |
| Sector (XLB) | 29.0% | 35.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MERC Return | 19% | -1% | -16% | -29% | -69% | -70% | -94% |
| Peers Return | -8% | -1% | -12% | 28% | -53% | -30% | -66% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MERC Win Rate | 42% | 67% | 33% | 42% | 33% | 14% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 48% | 52% | 31% | 25% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 57% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MERC Max Drawdown | -41% | -33% | -41% | -48% | -81% | -79% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -54% | -50% | -37% | -42% | -64% | -47% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: SLVM, CLW, MERC, ITP.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/14/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MERC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -25.1% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.5% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 195 days | 18 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -35.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 77 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -40.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 133 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -47.2% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 89.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 329 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -38.6% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.9% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 69 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -32.4% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.9% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 751 days | 123 days |
In The Past
Mercer International's stock fell -25.1% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 33.5% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | MERC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -25.1% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.5% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 195 days | 18 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -35.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 77 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -40.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 133 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -47.2% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 89.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 329 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -38.6% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.9% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 69 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -32.4% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.9% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 751 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -27.8% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.5% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 27 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -96.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 2792.9% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 662 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -28.9% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.7% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1285 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Mercer International's stock fell -25.1% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 33.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Mercer International (MERC)
Mercer International Inc. (MERC) is a global forest products company primarily engaged in the manufacturing and sale of northern bleached softwood kraft (NBSK) pulp. This foundational product is derived from various wood sources like chips, logs, and sawlogs, and is a crucial input for a wide array of paper products. Operating across Europe, the United States, Asia, and other international markets, Mercer has established itself as a significant supplier in the global pulp industry.
Beyond its core pulp operations, Mercer International diversifies its business through two additional key segments. The company is a producer and distributor of lumber and other wood residuals, serving various sectors from construction to retail. Furthermore, Mercer generates and sells carbon-neutral green energy, produced from biomass cogeneration plants using bio-fuels like black liquor and wood waste, supplying this sustainable energy to third-party utilities.
Mercer's customer base is diverse, with its NBSK pulp sold to manufacturers of tissue, specialty paper, and printing and writing paper. Its lumber and wood products reach distributors, construction firms, secondary manufacturers, retail yards, and home centers. This integrated approach, combining pulp, wood products, and green energy, positions Mercer as a comprehensive player in the global forest products and renewable energy sectors.
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Here are a few brief analogies for Mercer International (MERC):
- Like the raw materials division of International Paper, manufacturing pulp for paper products and lumber for construction.
- Similar to Weyerhaeuser, but with a greater emphasis on producing pulp (the key ingredient for paper) and also generating green energy.
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- Northern Bleached Softwood Kraft (NBSK) Pulp: A primary product manufactured and sold for use by tissue, specialty paper, and printing and writing paper manufacturers.
- Green Energy: The company generates and sells carbon-neutral green energy produced from biomass cogeneration power plants.
- Lumber and Wood Residuals: Mercer manufactures, distributes, and sells various lumber products and other wood residuals.
- Tall Oil: This product is produced for its use as a chemical additive and a green energy source.
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Mercer International (MERC) primarily sells its products and energy to other companies (B2B). The provided company description does not list specific named customer companies or their symbols, but it identifies the following categories of business customers:
- Pulp Customers: These include manufacturers of tissue, specialty paper, printing and writing paper, and other manufacturers that utilize Northern Bleached Softwood Kraft (NBSK) pulp.
- Lumber and Wood Residuals Customers: This category encompasses distributors, construction firms, secondary manufacturers, retail yards, and home centers that purchase lumber and other wood residuals.
- Green Energy Customers: Third-party utilities that purchase green energy produced from Mercer's biomass cogeneration power plants.
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Juan Carlos Bueno, Chief Executive Officer, President and Director
Juan Carlos Bueno joined Mercer as President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director in May 2022. Since 2018, he has served as the Chairman of the Board and co-founder of Global Energy, a company that produces novel green energy generation devices. From 2011 to 2017, he was Executive Vice President and Divisional CEO, Biomaterials, for Stora Enso, where he designed and led their new biomaterials division, achieving growth in sales and profitability. Mr. Bueno has also held executive positions with EI DuPont de Nemours & Company in various international locations, including Brazil, the UK, Argentina, Colombia, and the USA.
Richard Short, Chief Financial Officer and Secretary
Richard Short was appointed Chief Financial Officer with Mercer in June 2023. He previously served as Mercer's Vice President, Controller from 2014 to June 2023. His career at Mercer began in July 2007 as Director, Corporate Finance, and he also served as Controller from 2010 to 2014. Prior to joining Mercer, Mr. Short held roles such as Controller, Financial Reporting (2006-2007) and Director, Corporate Finance (2004-2006) with Catalyst Paper Corporation, and Assistant Controller at The Alderwoods Group Inc.
Wolfgang Beck, Senior Vice President, Global Wood Sourcing
Wolfgang Beck has served as Senior Vice President, Global Wood Sourcing since 2022. He has held various leadership roles within Mercer's German wood business since 2005, most recently as Managing Director of Mercer Holz since 2016. Earlier in his career, Mr. Beck worked for a German state forest organization and in the German financial sector. He has also been Managing Director of wood2M, a joint venture involving Mercer and another pulp and paper manufacturer, since 2016.
Brian Merwin, Senior Vice President, Mass Timber
Brian Merwin was appointed Senior Vice President, Mass Timber in June 2023, where he leads all aspects of Mercer's mass timber business. Since joining Mercer in 2005, he has served as Director, Strategic and Business Initiatives and Business Analyst. Through his previous role as Vice President, Corporate Development, he was actively involved in mass timber since Mercer's market entry. Mr. Merwin's past experience also includes serving as Co-Chairman at BC Pulp & Paper Coalition from 2022 to 2023 and as a Director at Cariboo Pulp & Paper Co. Ltd. from 2018 to 2023.
Shahed Tootoonian, Vice President, Corporate Development
Shahed Tootoonian has been Vice President, Corporate Development since July 2023. Prior to this role, she served as Director, Finance & Sustainability from October 2022 and Senior Manager, Finance since 2020. Ms. Tootoonian began her professional career at PricewaterhouseCoopers before joining Mercer in 2013 as a Senior Analyst, External Reporting. In 2016, she moved into Corporate Development, where she played key roles in Mercer's acquisition of the Mercer Timber Products' sawmill in Friesau and Mercer Peace River pulp mill in Alberta, as well as the subsequent expansion of MTP.
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The key risks to Mercer International's business, based on recent analysis and reports, primarily revolve around the cyclical nature of its core markets, its financial leverage, and operational challenges.
- Cyclicality of Pulp and Lumber Markets: Mercer International operates in mature pulp and lumber markets where profitability is highly cyclical and sensitive to demand and pricing fluctuations. The company is currently experiencing historically low margins due to weak pulp demand and prices, particularly from China, which significantly impacts its EBITDA generation. The lumber segment also faces challenges from post-pandemic price declines and weak consumer demand in the housing market, limiting recovery prospects.
- High Financial Leverage and Liquidity Risk: The company's financial position is considered precarious due to a leveraged balance sheet and increased interest costs from recent refinancing. Mercer International has a high debt-to-equity ratio, and its current cash flow struggles to cover both maintenance capital expenditures and interest expenses. This creates significant liquidity risks and raises concerns about potential financial distress or shareholder dilution if market conditions do not improve. Fitch Ratings downgraded Mercer's credit rating, citing persistent market weakness and projected high leverage.
- Operational Challenges and Volatile Input Costs: Mercer International has faced significant market headwinds that have led to non-cash impairments and a deterioration in operational efficiency and margins. The company's profitability is exposed to volatility in commodity pricing and rising input costs, particularly higher fiber costs, further exacerbated by currency fluctuations. Additionally, pulp and paper mills inherently face high explosion and fire hazards due to the chemical nature of raw materials and processes involved.
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Addressable Markets for Mercer International (MERC)
Mercer International Inc. operates in several key markets, including northern bleached softwood kraft (NBSK) pulp, green energy from biomass, lumber and other wood residuals, and tall oil. The addressable markets for these products and services are sized as follows:
- Northern Bleached Softwood Kraft (NBSK) Pulp: The global Northern Bleached Softwood Kraft (NBSK) pulp market was valued at approximately USD 9.142 billion in 2025. Some estimates place the market higher, around USD 24.6 billion in 2025. The market is projected to reach approximately USD 20.5 billion by 2032, or USD 25 billion by 2033. North America is a dominant region in the NBSK pulp market, contributing over 45% of the global supply in 2024. The Asia-Pacific region is anticipated to exhibit the highest growth rate in this market. Global demand for NBSK pulp exceeded 19 million metric tons in 2024.
- Green Energy (Biomass Power): The global biomass power market was valued at approximately USD 140.12 billion in 2024. This market is projected to reach USD 223.33 billion by 2032 or USD 251.60 billion by 2034. Europe currently dominates the biomass power market, holding the largest revenue share. However, the Asia Pacific region is also a significant market and is poised for substantial growth, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 10.8% between 2024 and 2030. In 2024, Asia Pacific dominated the biomass power generation market with a 39.01% share.
- Lumber and Other Wood Residuals: The global softwood lumber market, a primary product category for Mercer, was valued at USD 640.35 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 872.74 billion by 2033. The broader global lumber market was recorded at USD 331.429 billion in 2021 and is expected to reach USD 378.43 billion by the end of 2025, further growing to USD 493.373 billion by 2033. North America held a significant market share for lumber, representing over 40% of the global revenue in 2024.
- Tall Oil: The global crude tall oil market was valued at USD 1.81 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 3.71 billion by 2035. The global crude tall oil derivative market reached USD 2.1 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 3.0 billion by 2033. More specifically, the global tall oil fatty acid market was valued at USD 1.26 billion in 2025 and is projected to increase to USD 1.89 billion by 2034. North America is noted as dominating the crude tall oil market, while Europe contributes close to 50% of global crude tall oil production.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Mercer International (MERC) over the next 2-3 years:
- Growth in Mass Timber Business: Mercer International's mass timber business is projected to be a significant driver of revenue growth. The company anticipates its 2026 mass timber revenue to exceed $120 million, which would be more than double its 2025 levels. This growth is supported by a robust order backlog, which reached $163 million by the end of Q4 2025, up from $80 million in Q3 2025. Mercer holds a substantial share of North American cross-laminated timber (CLT) production capacity and is strategically positioned to meet the increasing demand for sustainable building solutions.
- Pulp Market Improvements and Pricing: The company anticipates modest improvements in pulp prices, particularly in Europe and China, in the first quarter of 2026, with North American prices expected to remain stable. This outlook suggests a recovery in pulp markets, which, combined with Mercer's significant production capacity, is expected to contribute to revenue growth.
- Lumber Market Recovery and Price Increases: Mercer International foresees an improving lumber pricing environment. The company expects U.S. and European lumber prices to modestly increase in the first quarter of 2026. This anticipated increase is attributed to reduced overall supply, including lower production from Canadian producers, and rising fiber costs in Europe. Enhancements to lumber capacity at mills like Torgau are also underway, aiming to produce more valuable end products.
- Diversification into Bio-chemicals (Lignin) and Green Energy: Mercer's strategic direction includes diversifying its product portfolio into higher-value, sustainable offerings such as bio-chemicals, specifically lignin, and expanding its green energy sales. A pilot production and research facility for lignin was commissioned in 2023, indicating ongoing efforts to commercialize these new bio-products and access higher-margin, sustainability-linked demand. Initiatives to increase mill green-power sales are also a strategic focus for the 2024-2026 period, creating additional revenue streams through sustainable practices.
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Share Issuance
- As of February 10, 2026, Mercer International Inc. had 66,982,506 shares of common stock outstanding.
- The company's stock incentive plan includes various equity awards, and 2,241,640 Performance Share Units (PSUs) were granted during the three months ended March 31, 2025.
- As of April 29, 2025, Mercer had 66,870,774 shares of common stock outstanding.
Capital Expenditures
- Mercer International's planned capital expenditures for 2026 are projected to be between $60 million and $80 million, primarily allocated to maintenance, environmental, and safety projects.
- In the fourth quarter of 2025, the company invested $14 million in maintenance capital across its facilities.
- The Peace River mill commenced operation of a carbon capture demonstration unit in 2025, a project jointly developed with Svante Technologies Inc.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Mercer International Stock Jump Looks Great, But How Secure Is That Gain? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
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Peer Comparisons
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Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 7.79 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.1 |
| Rev LTM | 1,694 |
| Op Inc LTM | -12 |
| FCF LTM | -25 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1 |
| CFO LTM | 8 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 49 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -3.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -4.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | -4.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -44.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -47.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -6.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -2.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 2.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -1.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -0.1% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pulp | 1,388 | 1,549 | 1,516 | 1,866 | 1,483 |
| Solid Wood | 513 | 520 | 472 | 408 | 311 |
| Sandalwood business revenues | 14 | 9 | |||
| Intersegment revenues | -46 | -35 | |||
| Corporate and Other | 6 | 6 | 9 | ||
| Total | 1,868 | 2,043 | 1,994 | 2,281 | 1,803 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate expenses and eliminations | -13 | -14 | |||
| Solid Wood | -92 | -89 | -88 | 71 | 108 |
| Pulp | -293 | 118 | -48 | 341 | 252 |
| Corporate and Other | -53 | -19 | -14 | ||
| Total | -398 | 15 | -189 | 392 | 347 |
| $ Mil | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pulp | 1,728 | 1,769 | 1,882 | 1,740 | 1,782 |
| Solid Wood | 697 | 613 | 259 | 112 | 83 |
| Corporate and Other | 238 | 343 | 210 | 277 | 201 |
| Total | 2,663 | 2,725 | 2,351 | 2,129 | 2,066 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $0.55 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/26/1990 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -87.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $0.92 | $1.67 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -40.4% | -67.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 93.4% | 79.0% |
| Downside Capture | 275.55 | 352.30 |
| Upside Capture | -117.05 | 45.40 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 20.9% | 31.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.64 | 1.40 | 1.71 | 1.66 | 2.05 | 1.27 |
| Up Beta | 3.69 | 4.46 | 3.69 | 2.20 | 2.14 | 1.17 |
| Down Beta | -1.36 | -0.27 | -0.38 | 1.29 | 1.95 | 1.32 |
| Up Capture | 18% | -82% | -51% | 12% | 61% | 35% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 7 | 17 | 26 | 49 | 107 | 354 |
| Down Capture | 329% | 267% | 303% | 219% | 188% | 111% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 23 | 35 | 70 | 135 | 376 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MERC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERC | -86.0% | 78.9% | -2.13 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 12.3% | 17.6% | 0.50 | 31.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.7% | 12.6% | 1.28 | 32.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.5% | 27.9% | 0.65 | 8.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 27.3% | 18.9% | 1.14 | -3.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.0% | 13.9% | 0.64 | 21.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -47.0% | 42.7% | -1.37 | 23.2% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MERC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERC | -44.4% | 53.7% | -0.89 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 6.4% | 19.1% | 0.23 | 37.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 32.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.2% | 18.4% | 0.76 | 9.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 19.5% | 0.33 | 9.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.7% | 18.9% | 0.04 | 28.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.8% | 53.4% | 0.42 | 14.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MERC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERC | -21.0% | 49.0% | -0.29 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 10.3% | 20.6% | 0.44 | 40.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 36.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.2% | 16.1% | 0.57 | 5.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.3% | 18.0% | 0.27 | 15.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 31.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 57.3% | 66.2% | 0.97 | 11.9% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 7/14/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | -11.7% | -15.9% | -28.0% |
| 2/12/2026 | 4.7% | 21.2% | -14.1% |
| 11/6/2025 | -2.1% | -8.5% | -2.7% |
| 7/31/2025 | -18.6% | -18.6% | -10.2% |
| 5/1/2025 | -7.1% | -15.2% | -14.0% |
| 2/20/2025 | 16.9% | 24.0% | -1.1% |
| 10/31/2024 | -1.2% | 4.1% | -7.1% |
| 8/8/2024 | 5.5% | -5.0% | -2.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| # Negative | 17 | 16 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 7.4% | 9.2% | 10.8% |
| Median Negative | -2.4% | -5.0% | -8.5% |
| Max Positive | 16.9% | 24.0% | 31.5% |
| Max Negative | -18.6% | -18.6% | -28.0% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | -11.7% | -15.9% | -28.0% |
| 2/12/2026 | 4.7% | 21.2% | -14.1% |
| 11/6/2025 | -2.1% | -8.5% | -2.7% |
| 7/31/2025 | -18.6% | -18.6% | -10.2% |
| 5/1/2025 | -7.1% | -15.2% | -14.0% |
| 2/20/2025 | 16.9% | 24.0% | -1.1% |
| 10/31/2024 | -1.2% | 4.1% | -7.1% |
| 8/8/2024 | 5.5% | -5.0% | -2.3% |
| 5/9/2024 | -2.8% | -4.3% | -18.0% |
| 2/15/2024 | 7.4% | 9.1% | 17.1% |
| 11/2/2023 | 13.3% | 9.3% | 16.1% |
| 8/3/2023 | 9.8% | -5.0% | 9.8% |
| 5/4/2023 | -3.8% | -3.9% | -6.6% |
| 2/16/2023 | -1.1% | -6.3% | -15.4% |
| 10/27/2022 | -4.9% | -12.3% | -5.7% |
| 7/28/2022 | -1.1% | -7.2% | 0.7% |
| 4/28/2022 | -1.8% | -0.2% | -8.5% |
| 2/17/2022 | -0.9% | 0.8% | 9.5% |
| 10/28/2021 | -1.6% | -4.8% | 2.1% |
| 7/29/2021 | -2.4% | -4.1% | -1.6% |
| 4/29/2021 | -1.8% | -4.7% | -11.7% |
| 2/16/2021 | -3.8% | -0.9% | 10.8% |
| 10/29/2020 | 1.0% | 9.5% | 31.5% |
| 7/31/2020 | -3.5% | 1.6% | 12.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| # Negative | 17 | 16 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 7.4% | 9.2% | 10.8% |
| Median Negative | -2.4% | -5.0% | -8.5% |
| Max Positive | 16.9% | 24.0% | 31.5% |
| Max Negative | -18.6% | -18.6% | -28.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/17/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/28/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/16/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/31/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/13/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/31/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/01/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/12/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Cost Savings | 100.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 100.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Cost Savings and Operational Improvements | 100.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 100.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/6/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Planned Maintenance Downtime | 18 | ||||||
| 2025 Cost Savings | 30.00 Mil | 20.0% | Raised | Guidance: 25.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Cost Savings | 100.00 Mil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 7/8/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kellogg, Peter R | Direct | Buy | 7082026 | 0.92 | 51,441 | 47,546 | 1,280,757 | Form | |
| 2 | Kellogg, Peter R | Direct | Buy | 7082026 | 0.86 | 136,000 | 116,946 | 1,147,305 | Form | |
| 3 | Kellogg, Peter R | Direct | Buy | 7082026 | 0.82 | 36,000 | 29,675 | 987,702 | Form | |
| 4 | Kellogg, Peter R | Direct | Buy | 7082026 | 0.79 | 23,637 | 18,763 | 922,579 | Form | |
| 5 | Kellogg, Peter R | Direct | Buy | 7082026 | 0.80 | 34,733 | 27,731 | 909,053 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kellogg, Peter R | Direct | Buy | 7082026 | 0.92 | 51,441 | 47,546 | 1,280,757 | Form | |
| 2 | Kellogg, Peter R | Direct | Buy | 7082026 | 0.86 | 136,000 | 116,946 | 1,147,305 | Form | |
| 3 | Kellogg, Peter R | Direct | Buy | 7082026 | 0.82 | 36,000 | 29,675 | 987,702 | Form | |
| 4 | Kellogg, Peter R | Direct | Buy | 7082026 | 0.79 | 23,637 | 18,763 | 922,579 | Form | |
| 5 | Kellogg, Peter R | Direct | Buy | 7082026 | 0.80 | 34,733 | 27,731 | 909,053 | Form | |
| 6 | Kellogg, Peter R | Direct | Buy | 7082026 | 0.85 | 36,000 | 30,593 | 938,061 | Form | |
| 7 | Kellogg, Peter R | Direct | Buy | 7082026 | 0.89 | 36,000 | 32,018 | 949,756 | Form | |
| 8 | Kellogg, Peter R | Direct | Buy | 7082026 | 0.92 | 1,047 | 959 | 944,669 | Form | |
| 9 | Kellogg, Peter R | Direct | Buy | 7082026 | 0.90 | 64,885 | 58,434 | 928,328 | Form | |
| 10 | Kellogg, Peter R | Via Harco | Buy | 5202026 | 0.97 | 105,000 | 102,344 | 1,907,488 | Form | |
| 11 | Kellogg, Peter R | Via Harco | Buy | 5202026 | 0.96 | 380,000 | 366,510 | 1,786,254 | Form | |
| 12 | Kellogg, Peter R | Via Harco | Buy | 5202026 | 0.95 | 215,000 | 203,584 | 1,393,837 | Form | |
| 13 | Kellogg, Peter R | Via Harco | Buy | 5152026 | 0.88 | 200,000 | 176,220 | 1,107,543 | Form | |
| 14 | Kellogg, Peter R | Via E.G. Anderson Inc. | Buy | 5152026 | 0.84 | 43,000 | 36,172 | 212,824 | Form | |
| 15 | Kellogg, Peter R | Via Harco | Buy | 5152026 | 0.88 | 57,000 | 50,006 | 927,306 | Form | |
| 16 | Kellogg, Peter R | Via Peter and Cynthia Kellogg Foundation | Buy | 3102026 | 3.38 | 70,000 | 236,600 | 3,380,000 | Form | |
| 17 | Laberge, Alice | Registered Retirement Savings Plan | Buy | 2272026 | 1.90 | 1,000 | 1,900 | 3,800 | Form | |
| 18 | Kellogg, Peter R | Via Harco | Buy | 12092025 | 1.73 | 225,000 | 389,500 | 2,285,067 | Form | |
| 19 | Kellogg, Peter R | Via Harco | Buy | 12092025 | 1.69 | 295,000 | 498,650 | 2,569,315 | Form | |
| 20 | Kellogg, Peter R | Via Non Marital PRK Trust | Buy | 12092025 | 1.70 | 54,000 | 91,597 | 2,236,564 | Form | |
| 21 | Kellogg, Peter R | Via Non Marital PRK Trust | Buy | 12092025 | 1.87 | 130,000 | 243,226 | 2,365,913 | Form | |
| 22 | Kellogg, Peter R | Via Non Marital PRK Trust | Buy | 12092025 | 1.90 | 97,938 | 186,241 | 2,157,465 | Form | |
| 23 | Kellogg, Peter R | Via Non Marital PRK Trust | Buy | 12092025 | 1.93 | 36,602 | 70,642 | 2,000,642 | Form | |
| 24 | Kellogg, Peter R | Via Non Marital PRK Trust | Buy | 12092025 | 2.11 | 25,160 | 53,088 | 2,110,000 | Form | |
| 25 | Kellogg, Peter R | Direct | Buy | 12092025 | 2.07 | 36,000 | 74,520 | 1,337,220 | Form | |
| 26 | Kellogg, Peter R | Via Non Marital PRK Trust | Buy | 12092025 | 2.27 | 58,540 | 132,716 | 2,210,056 | Form | |
| 27 | Kellogg, Peter R | Via Non Marital PRK Trust | Buy | 12092025 | 2.44 | 49,478 | 120,726 | 2,235,772 | Form | |
| 28 | Kellogg, Peter R | Via Non Marital PRK Trust | Buy | 12092025 | 2.79 | 6,822 | 19,033 | 2,418,433 | Form | |
| 29 | Welty, Linda J | Direct | Buy | 8182025 | 3.09 | 10,000 | 30,866 | 112,013 | Form | |
| 30 | Laberge, Alice | Direct | Buy | 8082025 | 2.98 | 2,000 | 5,957 | 35,937 | Form | |
| 31 | Laberge, Alice | Direct | Buy | 8072025 | 2.99 | 2,000 | 5,980 | 30,094 | Form | |
| 32 | Kellogg, Peter R | Via Spouse | Buy | 7232025 | 3.25 | 760,000 | 2,470,000 | 7,475,000 | Form | |
| 33 | Kellogg, Peter R | Via Non Marital PRK Trust | Buy | 7092025 | 3.72 | 33,420 | 124,276 | 3,198,001 | Form | |
| 34 | Kellogg, Peter R | Via Non Marital PRK Trust | Buy | 7092025 | 3.74 | 26,600 | 99,559 | 3,093,822 | Form | |
| 35 | Kellogg, Peter R | Via Bermuda Partners | Buy | 7092025 | 3.75 | 31,800 | 119,153 | 7,493,916 | Form | |
| 36 | Kellogg, Peter R | Via Bermuda Partners | Buy | 7092025 | 3.62 | 50,200 | 181,851 | 7,129,853 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 15, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank and community-bank filers are excluded.
Industry Resources
| Materials Resources |
| Chemical & Engineering News (C&EN) |
| Mining.com |
| Plastics News |
| Paper Products Resources |
| Pulp & Paper Canada |
| Tissue World Magazine |
| Paper360 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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