Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $32.79 | Market Cap: $6.8 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Precious Metals & Minerals
Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $32.79Market Cap: $6.8 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Precious Metals & Minerals
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.3%, Dist 3Y High is -3.3% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 18x |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 56% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 83%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Luxury Goods Input, and Commodity Streaming & Royalties. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 56% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 83%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Luxury Goods Input, and Commodity Streaming & Royalties. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.3%, Dist 3Y High is -3.3% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 18x |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TFPM Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the 19.1% stock movement for Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM) between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025:
1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Beat: Triple Flag Precious Metals announced its third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 4, 2025, surpassing analyst expectations. The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.24, exceeding the consensus estimate of $0.22, and revenue of $93.5 million, above the $87.46 million consensus. This strong performance included a record adjusted EBITDA of $79 million and record operating cash flow per share of $0.39.
2. Sustained High Precious Metals Prices: The market for precious metals experienced a robust rally throughout 2025, with gold prices surging past $4,300 per ounce in October and silver reaching an all-time high of $54.47 per ounce. This favorable pricing environment significantly benefited Triple Flag, a company highly exposed to gold and silver, driving increased revenue and profitability.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TFPM Return | - | - | - | -2% | 15% | 119% | 146% |
| Peers Return | 54% | 326% | -35% | 8% | 62% | 84% | 1282% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TFPM Win Rate | - | - | 75% | 42% | 42% | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 42% | 28% | 40% | 50% | 43% | 66% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TFPM Max Drawdown | - | - | - | -12% | -10% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -14% | -49% | -22% | -30% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PLG, LODE, TFPM, PPTA, SLSR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TFPM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 186 days | 464 days |
Compare to PLG, LODE, TFPM, PPTA, SLSR
In The Past
Triple Flag Precious Metals's stock fell -30.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/5/2023. A -30.5% loss requires a 44.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Triple Flag Precious Metals Stock Jump Looks Great, But How Secure Is That Gain? | Return | ||
| Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
| Triple Flag Precious Metals Stock Jumps 16% In A Month, Things To Be Wary Of When Buying The Stock | Buy or Fear | ||
| Fundamental Metrics: ... | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | December 2nd, 2025 | ||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | October 2nd, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TFPM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.0% | 1.0% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 29.7% | 29.7% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.9% | 9.9% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.2% | 5.2% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.0% | 1.0% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 29.7% | 29.7% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.9% | 9.9% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.2% | 5.2% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Triple Flag Precious Metals
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 7.77 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.3 |
| Rev LTM | 0 |
| Op Inc LTM | -24 |
| FCF LTM | -5 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -20 |
| CFO LTM | -3 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -15 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 44.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 54.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | -31.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -4.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -715.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -820.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -190.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -368.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -429.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -532.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -791.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.3 |
| P/S | 34.4 |
| P/EBIT | -12.4 |
| P/E | -11.3 |
| P/CFO | -6.2 |
| Total Yield | -2.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -4.2% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 18.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 46.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 45.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 95.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 39.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 18.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 32.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 30.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 82.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -9.2% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3282025 | 40-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3282024 | 40-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3302023 | 40-F 12/31/2022 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |