Century Aluminum (CENX)
Market Price (4/6/2026): $62.92 | Market Cap: $6.1 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Aluminum
Century Aluminum (CENX)
Market Price (4/6/2026): $62.92Market Cap: $6.1 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Aluminum
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Wind Energy Development, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.5%, Dist 3Y High is -1.5% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 120x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 33x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 145x Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 109%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 317% Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.0% Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 121% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.3% Key risksCENX key risks include [1] operational challenges from an aging asset base and execution risk in restarting idled smelters, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Wind Energy Development, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.5%, Dist 3Y High is -1.5% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 120x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 33x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 145x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 109%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 317% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.0% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 121% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.3% |
| Key risksCENX key risks include [1] operational challenges from an aging asset base and execution risk in restarting idled smelters, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Century Aluminum (CENX) stock has gained about 60% since 12/31/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Strategic U.S. Smelter Project Announced.
Century Aluminum entered into a joint development agreement with Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) in January 2026 to construct the first new primary aluminum smelter in the United States since 1980. This venture, in which Century will hold a 40% stake, is projected to produce 750,000 tonnes of aluminum annually, significantly boosting U.S. production capacity and creating thousands of jobs.
2. Increased Production Capacity and Asset Monetization.
In February 2026, Century Aluminum announced the restart of over 50,000 metric tons (MT) of idled production at its Mt. Holly facility by the end of the second quarter of 2026, which is anticipated to enhance profitability. Additionally, the company sold and redeveloped the previously curtailed Hawesville smelter, generating $200 million in cash and retaining a 6.8% interest in a data center, improving liquidity and monetizing a legacy asset.
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1. Strategic U.S. Smelter Project Announced.
Century Aluminum entered into a joint development agreement with Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) in January 2026 to construct the first new primary aluminum smelter in the United States since 1980. This venture, in which Century will hold a 40% stake, is projected to produce 750,000 tonnes of aluminum annually, significantly boosting U.S. production capacity and creating thousands of jobs.
2. Increased Production Capacity and Asset Monetization.
In February 2026, Century Aluminum announced the restart of over 50,000 metric tons (MT) of idled production at its Mt. Holly facility by the end of the second quarter of 2026, which is anticipated to enhance profitability. Additionally, the company sold and redeveloped the previously curtailed Hawesville smelter, generating $200 million in cash and retaining a 6.8% interest in a data center, improving liquidity and monetizing a legacy asset.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 59.7% change in CENX stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 238.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 39.18 | 62.57 | 59.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,525 | 2,528 | 0.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.4% | 1.7% | -51.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 42.9 | 145.0 | 238.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 93 | 97 | -3.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 59.7% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CENX | 59.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 30.4% |
| Sector (XLB) | 11.2% | 31.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 113.1% change in CENX stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 522.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 29.36 | 62.57 | 113.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,432 | 2,528 | 3.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.8% | 1.7% | -65.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 23.3 | 145.0 | 522.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 93 | 97 | -3.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 113.1% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CENX | 113.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 36.2% |
| Sector (XLB) | 13.1% | 34.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 237.1% change in CENX stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 2727.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 18.56 | 62.57 | 237.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,220 | 2,528 | 13.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.2% | 1.7% | -89.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 5.1 | 145.0 | 2727.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 93 | 97 | -3.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 237.1% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CENX | 237.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 50.3% |
| Sector (XLB) | 19.0% | 51.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 525.7% change in CENX stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 626.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 10.00 | 62.57 | 525.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,777 | 2,528 | -9.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.3 | 2.4 | 626.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 92 | 97 | -5.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 525.7% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CENX | 525.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 43.6% |
| Sector (XLB) | 32.0% | 50.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CENX Return | 50% | -51% | 48% | 50% | 115% | 62% | 476% |
| Peers Return | 56% | -12% | 21% | -9% | 51% | 26% | 187% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -4% | 75% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CENX Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 75% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 44% | 52% | 48% | 71% | 75% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CENX Max Drawdown | -12% | -68% | -29% | -18% | -25% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -12% | -32% | -19% | -24% | -24% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AA, KALU, CSTM, RS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/2/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CENX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -82.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 458.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,098 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -62.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 163.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 119 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -78.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 372.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 917 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -98.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 7446.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1,480 days |
Compare to AA, KALU, CSTM, RS
In The Past
Century Aluminum's stock fell -82.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/4/2022. A -82.1% loss requires a 458.5% gain to breakeven.
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About Century Aluminum (CENX)
Century Aluminum Company, together with its subsidiaries, produces standard-grade and value-added primary aluminum products in the United States and Iceland. It also owns and operates a carbon anode production facility in the Netherlands. The company was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
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- Century Aluminum is like US Steel for aluminum.
- Think of them as the Corning of primary metals, focusing on aluminum.
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- Standard-grade primary aluminum products: Basic, unalloyed aluminum for various industrial applications.
- Value-added primary aluminum products: Aluminum products with specific alloys, shapes, or properties tailored for specialized uses.
- Carbon anodes: Consumable electrodes essential for the electrolytic smelting process of aluminum.
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Century Aluminum Company (CENX) primarily sells its standard-grade and value-added primary aluminum products to other companies rather than individuals. As a producer of a base industrial commodity, Century Aluminum's customers are typically manufacturers and processors that utilize aluminum as a raw material in their own production.
While Century Aluminum's public filings do not typically disclose the names of specific major customer companies due to the nature of commodity sales and competitive considerations, their products are essential inputs for a wide range of industrial applications. Therefore, their customer base broadly consists of companies operating in the following key sectors:
- Automotive Industry: Companies manufacturing vehicles and vehicle components, utilizing aluminum for lightweighting, structural parts, and engine components.
- Packaging Industry: Producers of beverage cans, food containers, and flexible packaging that require aluminum sheet and foil.
- Construction and Building Industry: Firms involved in infrastructure, commercial, and residential construction that use aluminum for extrusions, sheets, and architectural elements like window frames, doors, and roofing.
- Aerospace and Defense: Manufacturers of aircraft and defense equipment, where high-strength, lightweight aluminum alloys are critical.
- Electrical Industry: Companies producing electrical cables, conductors, and various electrical components where aluminum's conductivity and light weight are beneficial.
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Jesse E. Gary President, Chief Executive Officer and Director Mr. Gary joined Century Aluminum in 2010 and was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer on July 1, 2021. Prior to his CEO role, he served as Executive Vice President, General Counsel, and Chief Operating Officer. Before joining Century, Mr. Gary practiced law at Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz in New York. He brings leadership, risk-management, and strategy-development experience to the company, along with extensive knowledge of the aluminum industry and global markets. Peter Trpkovski Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Mr. Trpkovski was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer on March 21, 2025. He joined Century Aluminum in 2013 and has since held roles of increasing responsibility, including Senior Vice President, Finance and Treasurer, and Vice President, Finance, and Investor Relations. He has also led Financial Planning and Analysis and Risk Management. Before his tenure at Century, Mr. Trpkovski worked at Citigroup and Johnson Controls. John DeZee Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary Mr. DeZee joined Century Aluminum in 2008 as Associate General Counsel and was promoted to Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary in May 2021. His legal career began at Paul Hastings LLP in Los Angeles, and he also served as in-house counsel at James Hardie Building Products before joining Century. Agust Hafberg Senior Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer Mr. Hafberg has been with Century Aluminum since 2007, serving in various commercial and business development roles before his promotion to Senior Vice President & Chief Commercial Officer in February 2019. Prior to joining Century, he held several management positions in shipping, logistics, and consulting across Europe. Robert Hoffman Senior Vice President, Chief Information Officer and Chief Accounting Officer Mr. Hoffman joined Century Aluminum in October 2004. He has held several positions within the company, including Corporate Controller, Director of Financial Planning and Analysis, and Chief Information Officer. He was promoted to Senior Vice President, Chief Information Officer and Chief Accounting Officer in 2021. In 2024, he led the integration effort at the company's bauxite mine and alumina refinery in Jamaica while continuing his role as Chief Information Officer.AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Century Aluminum (CENX) are:
- Volatility in Aluminum Prices and Impact of Trade Policies
Century Aluminum's profitability is highly sensitive to fluctuations in the London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum prices and regional premiums (such as the Midwest Premium). Management estimates that a $100 per ton decrease in the LME price can reduce EBITDA by $46 million. The company benefits significantly from U.S. protectionist policies, including tariffs on imported aluminum, which contribute to higher regional premiums. The potential easing or removal of these trade tariffs poses a substantial risk, as it could compress these premiums and negatively impact the company's earnings. - High and Volatile Energy Costs
Electrical power is a principal component of Century Aluminum's production costs, representing a significant portion of its cost of goods sold. The company's reliance on market-based electricity contracts exposes it to significant price volatility, which can adversely affect its financial performance if increases in energy costs are not offset by corresponding increases in aluminum prices. - Operational Instability and Execution Risk for Strategic Projects
Century Aluminum faces operational risks including disruptions at its existing smelters, such as equipment failures that can temporarily reduce production. Furthermore, the company is undertaking significant strategic projects, including restarting idled U.S. capacity and developing new smelters (e.g., the planned Inola plant in Oklahoma). These large-scale projects introduce substantial execution, funding, permitting, and construction risks. Additionally, the company has recently disclosed a material weakness in internal controls related to the consolidation of its Jamalco joint venture and has restated financial statements, leading to an adverse opinion on internal control over financial reporting, which signals elevated accounting and control risk.
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The emergence of inert anode technology, which aims to produce aluminum without greenhouse gas emissions and without the use of carbon anodes, represents a clear emerging threat. This technology directly threatens Century Aluminum's carbon anode production facility and could render traditional Hall-Héroult smelting processes, which rely on carbon anodes, less competitive or obsolete in an increasingly decarbonized market.AI Analysis | Feedback
Addressable Markets for Century Aluminum's Main Products and Services
For Century Aluminum (CENX), the addressable markets for its main products are as follows:
Primary Aluminum Products (Standard-Grade and Value-Added)
- Global Primary Aluminum Market: The global aluminum market size was valued at approximately USD 199.83 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to about USD 307.36 billion by 2033, exhibiting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4.9% during the forecast period (2025–2033). Another estimate places the global primary aluminum market at US$107.23 billion in 2024, with a projection to reach US$152.85 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 4.59% from 2025-2032.
- U.S. Aluminum Market: The U.S. aluminum market, encompassing both primary and recycled aluminum, was valued at US$28.7 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach US$42.8 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 5.9% from 2026-2032.
- Global Aluminum Flat Products Market (a component of Value-Added Aluminum): The global aluminum flat products market is estimated to be valued at USD 70.7 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 110.9 billion by 2035, registering a CAGR of 4.6% over the forecast period. The United States aluminum flat products market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.9%.
Carbon Anode Production
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Century Aluminum (CENX)
- Increased Production Volume from Mt. Holly Restart: Century Aluminum's Mt. Holly restart project is on track to significantly boost U.S. aluminum production. This initiative is expected to increase U.S. aluminum production by nearly 10% in 2026, with the restart of production commencing in April and completion anticipated by the end of June 2026. The project is also projected to contribute approximately $25 million in quarterly Adjusted EBITDA once fully operational.
- Significant Capacity Expansion with the New Oklahoma Smelter: A major strategic growth driver is the partnership with Emirates Global Aluminum (EGA) to construct a new 750,000-ton aluminum smelter in Oklahoma, which will be the first new smelter in the U.S. in nearly 50 years. Century Aluminum will hold a 40% ownership stake in this project, which is designed to substantially increase the company's production capacity. The company aims to finalize the power contract, engineering, and financing for this project in 2026, with a final investment decision expected in the fourth quarter of 2026.
- Sustained Favorable Aluminum Pricing and Premiums: Strong aluminum market conditions, characterized by elevated London Metal Exchange (LME) prices and robust U.S. Midwest Premium (MWP), are expected to continue driving revenue growth. Management noted that pricing power, rather than volume, was the primary engine for revenue growth in 2025. The enforcement of the 50% Section 232 aluminum tariff further supports the U.S. Midwest Premium.
- Restart of Grundartangi Line 2: The company anticipates the restart of Line 2 at its Grundartangi smelter in Iceland. This restart will help to restore production volume that was temporarily halted due to transformer failures, thereby contributing to increased shipments and revenue.
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Inbound Investments
- Century Aluminum received a $500 million Department of Energy grant to support the development of its Oklahoma smelter project.
Outbound Investments
- Century Aluminum entered a joint venture with Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) to build a new primary aluminum smelter in Oklahoma, holding a 40% ownership stake in the $4 billion project.
- The company redeveloped its Hawesville site into an AI digital infrastructure campus, receiving $200 million in cash and retaining a 6.8% interest in the completed data center.
Capital Expenditures
- Century Aluminum's capital expenditures were $83 million in 2021, $86 million in 2022, and $69 million in 2023.
- Total capital expenditures for 2026 are anticipated to be in the range of $115 million to $125 million.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures includes the Mt. Holly expansion, the restart of Grundartangi Line 2, and preparatory engineering work for the Oklahoma smelter project.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 71.53 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.1 |
| Rev LTM | 8,449 |
| Op Inc LTM | 481 |
| FCF LTM | 159 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 47 |
| CFO LTM | 489 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 419 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 5.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 0.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.1 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/EBIT | 14.0 |
| P/E | 19.0 |
| P/CFO | 19.1 |
| Total Yield | 6.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 0.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 11.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 26.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 78.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 191.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 96.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 38.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 85.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 123.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 23.0% |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $62.57 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 6.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/29/1996 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -1.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $51.85 | $33.96 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 20.7% | 84.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 72.1% | 67.7% |
| Downside Capture | -0.20 | 0.77 |
| Upside Capture | 229.11 | 248.54 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 28.1% | 48.6% |
CENX Betas & Captures as of 3/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.93 | 2.04 | 1.69 | 1.99 | 1.80 | 1.88 |
| Up Beta | -1.62 | 4.15 | 2.61 | 2.06 | 1.65 | 1.66 |
| Down Beta | 1.77 | 1.54 | 1.29 | 1.01 | 1.66 | 1.90 |
| Up Capture | -4% | 230% | 288% | 503% | 579% | 2212% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 21 | 35 | 67 | 127 | 369 |
| Down Capture | 59% | 129% | 83% | 151% | 136% | 111% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 123 | 374 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CENX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CENX | 251.1% | 69.2% | 2.11 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 18.7% | 20.9% | 0.72 | 50.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.1% | 19.0% | 0.67 | 50.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 50.5% | 28.0% | 1.46 | 32.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 16.2% | 17.7% | 0.77 | 31.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.6% | 16.5% | 0.04 | 31.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -21.5% | 44.0% | -0.42 | 30.9% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CENX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CENX | 28.3% | 72.9% | 0.66 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 6.8% | 18.9% | 0.26 | 55.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.6% | 17.0% | 0.53 | 45.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.7% | 17.8% | 1.00 | 25.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.6% | 18.8% | 0.51 | 38.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.3% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 33.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 3.9% | 56.5% | 0.29 | 22.2% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CENX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CENX | 25.0% | 70.7% | 0.63 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 10.7% | 20.6% | 0.46 | 52.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 43.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.0% | 15.9% | 0.73 | 17.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 38.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 30.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.2% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 15.3% |
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Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/19/2026 | 0.3% | -0.6% | -6.7% |
| 8/7/2025 | 1.6% | 4.1% | -4.0% |
| 5/7/2025 | -2.0% | 7.8% | 23.5% |
| 2/20/2025 | -13.3% | -3.3% | -3.6% |
| 11/4/2024 | 20.0% | 26.3% | 35.5% |
| 8/8/2024 | -2.5% | 4.9% | -6.7% |
| 5/1/2024 | -7.7% | 1.2% | 10.8% |
| 2/21/2024 | -3.3% | -4.9% | 19.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 12 | 10 |
| # Negative | 11 | 8 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 3.0% | 7.1% | 27.6% |
| Median Negative | -7.7% | -5.6% | -6.7% |
| Max Positive | 20.0% | 37.6% | 44.8% |
| Max Negative | -19.1% | -13.6% | -25.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 03/03/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/03/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/02/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/19/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 215.00 Mil | 225.00 Mil | 235.00 Mil | 87.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 120.00 Mil for Q3 2025 | |
Prior: Q2 2025 Earnings Reported 8/7/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 115.00 Mil | 120.00 Mil | 125.00 Mil | 41.2% | Raised | Guidance: 85.00 Mil for Q2 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glencore, International Ag | Direct | Sell | 11132025 | 30.25 | 9,000,000 | 272,250,000 | 559,625,000 | Form | |
| 2 | Hafberg, Agust F | SVP & Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9302025 | 27.91 | 9,493 | 264,950 | 1,542,307 | Form |
| 3 | Calloway, Kenneth L | SVP, Human Resources | Direct | Sell | 9232025 | 27.50 | 16,450 | 452,375 | 789,415 | Form |
| 4 | Aboud, Matt | SVP, Strategy & Business Dev't | Direct | Sell | 8142025 | 23.27 | 12,027 | 279,868 | 1,456,446 | Form |
| 5 | Hoffman, Robert F | SVP, IT and CAO | Direct | Sell | 3242025 | 20.24 | 5,000 | 101,200 | 1,195,840 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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