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Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Wind Energy Development, Show more.
Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 67x
1  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.9%
2  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5%
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Wind Energy Development, Show more.
1 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 67x
2 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.9%
3 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CENX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

**1. Century Aluminum reported strong third-quarter 2025 financial results and provided an optimistic outlook for the fourth quarter.** The company saw a significant sequential increase in net income, reaching $14.9 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $101.1 million, driven primarily by favorable realized Midwest Premium. Management projected Q4 adjusted EBITDA to be substantially higher, in the range of $170 million to $180 million, anticipating further increases in LME and Midwest premiums.

**2. The company benefited from favorable global aluminum market conditions and the impact of increased U.S. tariffs.** Century Aluminum highlighted "outstanding global market conditions" with rising aluminum prices and "persistently challenged supply side" dynamics. An increase in Section 232 tariffs on imported steel and aluminum to 50%, effective June 4, 2025, contributed to higher spot aluminum premiums in the U.S. market, positively impacting the company's revenue and profitability.

**3. Century Aluminum finalized a long-term power agreement for its Mt. Holly smelter and initiated expansion plans.** A power agreement for the Mt. Holly facility was extended through 2031, securing operational stability. This agreement supports the restart of over 50,000 metric tons per year of incremental production at Mt. Holly, which is expected to begin in the second quarter of 2026, signaling future capacity expansion.

**4. Significant progress was made on the development of a new U.S. aluminum smelter.** The company advanced its plans for a new primary aluminum smelter in the United States, narrowing the focus to a single site and power provider, and engaging in early discussions with potential joint venture partners. This project, potentially backed by a U.S. Department of Energy grant of up to $500 million, underscores Century Aluminum's long-term growth strategy and commitment to domestic production.

**5. Equity research analysts issued positive revisions and increased price targets for CENX.** Several analysts maintained or upgraded their ratings and raised price objectives for Century Aluminum during this period. For example, BMO Capital Markets and Wells Fargo increased their target prices to $34.00 and $37.00, respectively, and maintained "outperform" or "overweight" ratings, reflecting strong market confidence in the company's prospects.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CENX Return47%50%-51%48%50%63%295%
Peers Return13%59%-31%23%4%46%130%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CENX Win Rate67%50%42%50%50%70% 
Peers Win Rate60%56%44%50%46%70% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CENX Max Drawdown-60%-12%-68%-29%-18%-25% 
Peers Max Drawdown-64%-14%-47%-26%-27%-29% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AA, KALU, CENX, CSTM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCENXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-82.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven458.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1098 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-62.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven163.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven119 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-78.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven372.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven917 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-98.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven7446.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days

Compare to AA, KALU, CENX, CSTM


In The Past

Century Aluminum's stock fell -82.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/4/2022. A -82.1% loss requires a 458.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About Century Aluminum (CENX)

Better Bets than Century Aluminum (CENX)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CENX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Century Aluminum

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CENXAAKALUCSTMMedian
NameCentury .Alcoa Kaiser A.Constell. 
Mkt Price30.9444.10104.0917.9837.52
Mkt Cap2.911.41.72.52.7
Rev LTM2,52512,8683,2097,9695,589
Op Inc LTM1741,337144344259
FCF LTM-3851913-40-12
FCF 3Y Avg-42-595-16-29
CFO LTM411,063175332254
CFO 3Y Avg44493169362266

Growth & Margins

CENXAAKALUCSTMMedian
NameCentury .Alcoa Kaiser A.Constell. 
Rev Chg LTM20.1%16.9%7.7%6.5%12.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-2.9%0.5%-2.2%-1.4%-1.8%
Rev Chg Q17.3%3.1%12.8%20.2%15.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.8%0.7%3.1%4.8%3.5%
Op Mgn LTM6.9%10.4%4.5%4.3%5.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.5%3.2%3.5%4.4%3.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.5%-1.8%1.0%0.9%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM1.6%8.3%5.5%4.2%4.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg2.0%4.0%5.4%4.6%4.3%
FCF/Rev LTM-1.5%4.0%0.4%-0.5%-0.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-1.9%-0.8%0.2%-0.2%-0.5%

Valuation

CENXAAKALUCSTMMedian
NameCentury .Alcoa Kaiser A.Constell. 
Mkt Cap2.911.41.72.52.7
P/S1.10.70.40.30.5
P/EBIT23.85.68.06.77.3
P/E32.27.414.718.316.5
P/CFO67.18.07.16.27.6
Total Yield3.1%14.7%7.8%5.5%6.7%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.2%1.0%0.0%0.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-4.4%-1.9%0.5%-0.8%-1.4%
D/E0.20.30.91.00.6
Net D/E0.20.10.81.00.5

Returns

CENXAAKALUCSTMMedian
NameCentury .Alcoa Kaiser A.Constell. 
1M Rtn0.7%18.9%11.6%10.9%11.2%
3M Rtn39.6%42.1%38.8%30.0%39.2%
6M Rtn56.8%62.1%37.0%39.6%48.2%
12M Rtn29.2%-2.7%30.6%46.7%29.9%
3Y Rtn226.7%-9.2%31.1%45.2%38.2%
1M Excs Rtn0.7%18.9%11.6%10.9%11.2%
3M Excs Rtn35.1%36.0%33.0%23.5%34.1%
6M Excs Rtn42.1%47.4%22.2%24.9%33.5%
12M Excs Rtn22.0%-17.4%19.7%33.1%20.9%
3Y Excs Rtn213.0%-74.3%-35.7%-20.6%-28.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Aluminum2,1852,7772,2121,6051,837
Total2,1852,7772,2121,6051,837


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Aluminum1,8081,4321,5131,3321,434
Corporate, unallocated3840576866
Total1,8461,4721,5701,4001,500


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7,790,787
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120253.8%
Average Daily Volume3,337,101
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.33
Basic Shares Quantity93,300,000
Short % of Basic Shares8.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024303202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241104202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024501202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023315202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221107202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022502202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021