Century Aluminum (CENX)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $36.31 | Market Cap: $3.4 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Aluminum
Century Aluminum (CENX)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $36.31Market Cap: $3.4 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Aluminum
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Wind Energy Development, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 83x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 40x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 114% | ||
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.9% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5% | ||
| Key risksCENX key risks include [1] operational challenges from an aging asset base and execution risk in restarting idled smelters, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Wind Energy Development, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 83x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 40x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 114% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.9% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5% |
| Key risksCENX key risks include [1] operational challenges from an aging asset base and execution risk in restarting idled smelters, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CENX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining Century Aluminum's (CENX) stock movement from August 31, 2025, to December 21, 2025:
1. Century Aluminum announced the full restart of its Mt. Holly plant, boosting U.S. aluminum production. On August 7, 2025, Century Aluminum announced plans to bring its Mt. Holly, South Carolina plant to full production, increasing U.S. primary aluminum output by 10%, citing benefits from Section 232 tariffs. This news was met with a positive market reaction, with the stock rising 5.3% on the day of the announcement.
2. The company secured a long-term power agreement and invested further in its Mt. Holly facility. In October 2025, Century Aluminum extended its power agreement with Santee Cooper through 2031, enabling a $50 million investment to restart additional idle capacity at Mt. Holly. This strategic move was seen favorably by the market, with the stock gaining 7.5% following the news.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CENX Return | 47% | 50% | -51% | 48% | 50% | 86% | 350% |
| Peers Return | 2% | 56% | -12% | 21% | -9% | 46% | 125% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CENX Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 60% | 44% | 52% | 48% | 71% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CENX Max Drawdown | -60% | -12% | -68% | -29% | -18% | -25% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -59% | -12% | -32% | -19% | -24% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AA, KALU, CSTM, RS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CENX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -82.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 458.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,098 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -62.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 163.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 119 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -78.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 372.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 917 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -98.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 7446.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1,480 days |
Compare to AA, KALU, CENX, CSTM
In The Past
Century Aluminum's stock fell -82.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/4/2022. A -82.1% loss requires a 458.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CENX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.6% | 7.6% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.2% | 0.2% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 47.0% | 47.0% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 24.2% | 24.2% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.6% | 7.6% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.2% | 0.2% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 47.0% | 47.0% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 24.2% | 24.2% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Century Aluminum
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 51.25 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.4 |
| Rev LTM | 7,969 |
| Op Inc LTM | 344 |
| FCF LTM | 13 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -16 |
| CFO LTM | 332 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 362 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -2.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 5.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 0.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -0.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.4 |
| P/S | 1.0 |
| P/EBIT | 11.8 |
| P/E | 21.7 |
| P/CFO | 12.5 |
| Total Yield | 5.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -0.8% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 27.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 31.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 55.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 70.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 56.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 23.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 30.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 38.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 45.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -17.5% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/7/2025 | 1.6% | 4.1% | -4.0% |
| 5/7/2025 | -2.0% | 7.8% | 23.5% |
| 2/20/2025 | -13.3% | -3.3% | -3.6% |
| 11/4/2024 | 20.0% | 26.3% | 35.5% |
| 8/8/2024 | -2.5% | 4.9% | -6.7% |
| 5/1/2024 | -7.7% | 1.2% | 10.8% |
| 2/21/2024 | -3.3% | -4.9% | 19.4% |
| 11/8/2023 | 3.0% | 17.5% | 22.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 13 | 10 |
| # Negative | 11 | 8 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 4.8% | 6.4% | 27.6% |
| Median Negative | -7.7% | -6.4% | -6.7% |
| Max Positive | 20.0% | 37.6% | 44.8% |
| Max Negative | -19.1% | -13.6% | -45.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3032025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11042024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5022022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |