Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Wind Energy Development, Show more.
Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 67x
1  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.9%
2  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5%
3  Key risks
CENX key risks include [1] operational challenges from an aging asset base and execution risk in restarting idled smelters, Show more.
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Wind Energy Development, Show more.
1 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 67x
2 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.9%
3 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5%
4 Key risks
CENX key risks include [1] operational challenges from an aging asset base and execution risk in restarting idled smelters, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CENX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Century Aluminum (CENX) stock movement from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, can be attributed to several key factors.

1. Strong Q3 2025 Outlook Driven by Tariff Benefits: Century Aluminum's management provided optimistic guidance for the third quarter of 2025, projecting adjusted EBITDA to be between $115 million and $125 million. This substantial increase from Q2 2025's adjusted EBITDA of $74.3 million is primarily due to anticipated higher realized premiums in the U.S. Midwest, following significant increases in Section 232 aluminum tariffs. These tariffs were raised to 25% in March 2025 and further to 50% in June 2025, with their full benefit expected to be reflected in Q3 2025 results.

2. Restart of Mt. Holly Smelter Capacity: The company announced the restart of the final 50,000 tonnes of production capacity at its Mt. Holly smelter in South Carolina. This strategic decision is a direct outcome of the Section 232 program and is expected to boost U.S. primary aluminum production by nearly 10%, indicating increased operational scale and potential revenue generation.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CENX Return47%50%-51%48%50%77%329%
Peers Return2%56%-12%21%-9%45%124%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CENX Win Rate67%50%42%50%50%75% 
Peers Win Rate58%60%44%52%48%71% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CENX Max Drawdown-60%-12%-68%-29%-18%-25% 
Peers Max Drawdown-59%-12%-32%-19%-24%-24% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AA, KALU, CSTM, RS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCENXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-82.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven458.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1098 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-62.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven163.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven119 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-78.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven372.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven917 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-98.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven7446.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days

Compare to AA, KALU, CENX, CSTM


In The Past

Century Aluminum's stock fell -82.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/4/2022. A -82.1% loss requires a 458.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Century Aluminum (CENX)

Better Bets than Century Aluminum (CENX)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CENX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
42.2%42.2%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
42.2%42.2%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Century Aluminum

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CENXAAKALUCSTMRSMedian
NameCentury .Alcoa Kaiser A.Constell.Reliance  
Mkt Price32.1246.84111.0818.06297.7146.84
Mkt Cap3.012.11.82.515.63.0
Rev LTM2,52512,8683,2097,96913,9227,969
Op Inc LTM1741,337144344982344
FCF LTM-3851913-4066213
FCF 3Y Avg-42-595-161,073-16
CFO LTM411,0631753321,029332
CFO 3Y Avg444931693621,488362

Growth & Margins

CENXAAKALUCSTMRSMedian
NameCentury .Alcoa Kaiser A.Constell.Reliance  
Rev Chg LTM20.1%16.9%7.7%6.5%-0.9%7.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-2.9%0.5%-2.2%-1.4%-7.0%-2.2%
Rev Chg Q17.3%3.1%12.8%20.2%6.8%12.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.8%0.7%3.1%4.8%1.7%3.1%
Op Mgn LTM6.9%10.4%4.5%4.3%7.1%6.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.5%3.2%3.5%4.4%9.6%3.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.5%-1.8%1.0%0.9%-0.2%-0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM1.6%8.3%5.5%4.2%7.4%5.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg2.0%4.0%5.4%4.6%10.3%4.6%
FCF/Rev LTM-1.5%4.0%0.4%-0.5%4.8%0.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-1.9%-0.8%0.2%-0.2%7.4%-0.2%

Valuation

CENXAAKALUCSTMRSMedian
NameCentury .Alcoa Kaiser A.Constell.Reliance  
Mkt Cap3.012.11.82.515.63.0
P/S1.10.70.40.31.10.7
P/EBIT23.85.68.06.713.48.0
P/E32.27.414.718.320.218.3
P/CFO67.18.07.16.214.38.0
Total Yield3.1%14.7%7.8%5.5%6.7%6.7%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.2%1.0%0.0%1.7%1.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-4.4%-1.9%0.5%-0.8%7.0%-0.8%
D/E0.20.30.91.00.10.3
Net D/E0.20.10.81.00.10.2

Returns

CENXAAKALUCSTMRSMedian
NameCentury .Alcoa Kaiser A.Constell.Reliance  
1M Rtn14.6%30.9%21.4%21.1%11.8%21.1%
3M Rtn21.7%42.9%45.7%18.5%3.6%21.7%
6M Rtn86.1%66.2%50.2%39.1%-2.8%50.2%
12M Rtn63.8%23.4%53.8%65.5%8.1%53.8%
3Y Rtn339.4%13.7%63.6%60.1%55.1%60.1%
1M Excs Rtn13.8%30.2%20.7%20.4%11.1%20.4%
3M Excs Rtn18.1%42.2%40.7%9.0%2.6%18.1%
6M Excs Rtn73.7%53.9%37.8%26.8%-15.2%37.8%
12M Excs Rtn42.8%10.2%40.5%50.7%-7.4%40.5%
3Y Excs Rtn230.1%-62.4%-16.4%-14.7%-16.0%-16.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Aluminum2,1852,7772,2121,6051,837
Total2,1852,7772,2121,6051,837


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Aluminum1,8081,4321,5131,3321,434
Corporate, unallocated3840576866
Total1,8461,4721,5701,4001,500


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7,383,912
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-5.2%
Average Daily Volume1,972,640
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.74
Basic Shares Quantity93,300,000
Short % of Basic Shares7.9%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/7/20251.6%4.1%-4.0%
5/7/2025-2.0%7.8%23.5%
2/20/2025-13.3%-3.3%-3.6%
11/4/202420.0%26.3%35.5%
8/8/2024-2.5%4.9%-6.7%
5/1/2024-7.7%1.2%10.8%
2/21/2024-3.3%-4.9%19.4%
11/8/20233.0%17.5%22.7%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive101310
# Negative11811
Median Positive4.8%6.4%27.6%
Median Negative-7.7%-6.4%-6.7%
Max Positive20.0%37.6%44.8%
Max Negative-19.1%-13.6%-45.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024303202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241104202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024501202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023315202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221107202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022502202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021