Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Wind Energy Development, Show more.
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 37x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 105x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 50x
1  Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 120%
2  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.9%
3  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5%
4  Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 51%
5  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.3%
6  Key risks
CENX key risks include [1] operational challenges from an aging asset base and execution risk in restarting idled smelters, Show more.
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Wind Energy Development, Show more.
1 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 37x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 105x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 50x
2 Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 120%
3 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.9%
4 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5%
5 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 51%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.3%
7 Key risks
CENX key risks include [1] operational challenges from an aging asset base and execution risk in restarting idled smelters, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

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Century Aluminum (CENX) stock has gained about 55% since 10/31/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Strong Aluminum Market Outlook and Price Surge. Aluminum prices surged to a three-year high around October 10, 2025, topping approximately $2,800 per tonne, driven by rising supply concerns and increasing demand. Projections indicate that primary aluminum prices are expected to remain elevated, with forecasts suggesting average annual pricing of $2,700-$2,900 for 2026 and a potential to test the $3,000/tonne threshold in the short term. This upward trend is underpinned by a global market that is expected to remain in a deficit through 2026 due to structural supply constraints.

2. Increasing Demand from the Green Energy Transition. The global push towards clean energy is a significant driver of aluminum demand, with the metal being essential for electric vehicles (EVs), solar panels, power lines, and low-carbon buildings. Global aluminum demand is forecasted to increase by 40% by 2030, largely fueled by these clean-tech applications. Moreover, low-carbon aluminum, which Century Aluminum is positioned to supply, commands a premium of $20 to $150 per tonne, further supporting revenue potential.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 55.4% change in CENX stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 114.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)103120252152026Change
Stock Price ($)29.6246.0455.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2,4322,5253.8%
Net Income Margin (%)4.8%3.4%-30.2%
P/E Multiple23.550.4114.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)93930.0%
Cumulative Contribution55.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 2/15/2026
ReturnCorrelation
CENX55.4% 
Market (SPY)-0.0%40.7%
Sector (XLB)24.5%32.2%

Fundamental Drivers

The 117.4% change in CENX stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 205.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)73120252152026Change
Stock Price ($)21.1846.04117.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2,3652,5256.8%
Net Income Margin (%)5.1%3.4%-33.3%
P/E Multiple16.550.4205.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)93930.0%
Cumulative Contribution117.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2025 to 2/15/2026
ReturnCorrelation
CENX117.4% 
Market (SPY)8.2%40.4%
Sector (XLB)22.1%36.3%

Fundamental Drivers

The 151.9% change in CENX stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 855.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)13120252152026Change
Stock Price ($)18.2846.04151.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2,1022,52520.1%
Net Income Margin (%)15.3%3.4%-77.9%
P/E Multiple5.350.4855.8%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)9393-0.5%
Cumulative Contribution151.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2025 to 2/15/2026
ReturnCorrelation
CENX151.9% 
Market (SPY)14.3%50.5%
Sector (XLB)21.8%53.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The 309.6% change in CENX stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 685.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)13120232152026Change
Stock Price ($)11.2446.04309.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2,9062,525-13.1%
Net Income Margin (%)5.5%3.4%-38.6%
P/E Multiple6.450.4685.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)9193-2.1%
Cumulative Contribution309.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2023 to 2/15/2026
ReturnCorrelation
CENX309.6% 
Market (SPY)74.0%45.5%
Sector (XLB)32.9%53.0%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
CENX Return50%-51%48%50%115%27%351%
Peers Return56%-12%21%-9%51%22%180%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%-0%82%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CENX Win Rate50%42%50%50%75%100% 
Peers Win Rate60%44%52%48%71%100% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CENX Max Drawdown-12%-68%-29%-18%-25%0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-12%-32%-19%-24%-24%0% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-1% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AA, KALU, CSTM, RS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/13/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCENXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-82.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven458.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,098 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-62.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven163.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven119 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-78.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven372.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven917 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-98.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven7446.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1,480 days

Compare to AA, KALU, CSTM, RS

In The Past

Century Aluminum's stock fell -82.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/4/2022. A -82.1% loss requires a 458.5% gain to breakeven.

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About Century Aluminum (CENX)

Century Aluminum Company, together with its subsidiaries, produces standard-grade and value-added primary aluminum products in the United States and Iceland. It also owns and operates a carbon anode production facility in the Netherlands. The company was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

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1. Nucor for aluminum

2. Freeport-McMoRan for aluminum

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  • Purity Aluminum: High-grade aluminum used for specialized applications requiring exceptional material purity.
  • Standard-Grade Primary Aluminum: Basic aluminum ingots or sows used across a wide range of industrial applications.
  • Foundry Alloys: Aluminum alloys specifically formulated for casting into various components.
  • Billet: Semi-finished aluminum products, typically cylindrical, used for extrusion into various shapes.

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Century Aluminum (symbol: CENX) sells primarily to other companies (business-to-business).

Based on their public filings, such as their 2023 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Century Aluminum explicitly states that "no single customer accounting for 10% or more of our net sales." This means that specific "major customers" by name are not publicly disclosed at the threshold typically required by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

However, Century Aluminum supplies primary aluminum to companies across a wide variety of industries that rely heavily on this raw material. These industries represent their major customer segments, and the companies within them are their likely customers. The primary industries served include:

  • Automotive Industry: Manufacturers of automobiles and automotive components use aluminum for lightweighting, improved fuel efficiency, and structural integrity. Examples of public companies in this sector that are significant consumers of primary aluminum include Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F), General Motors Company (NYSE: GM), and Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA).
  • Packaging Industry: Producers of beverage cans, food containers, and other packaging materials are major consumers of primary aluminum. Prominent public companies include Ball Corporation (NYSE: BALL) and Crown Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CCK).
  • Aerospace Industry: Manufacturers of aircraft and aerospace components require high-strength, lightweight aluminum alloys. Examples of public companies in this sector include The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) and Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE: LMT).
  • Construction Industry: Aluminum is used in various building and construction applications, such as architectural elements, windows, doors, and structural components. While specific major public customers of CENX in this sector are not individually disclosed, companies involved in building product manufacturing, infrastructure, and large-scale construction projects are significant consumers of primary aluminum.

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  • Landsvirkjun

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Jesse E. Gary, President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Mr. Gary joined Century Aluminum in 2010. He has held various leadership positions within the company, including Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary, and Chief Operating Officer. Mr. Gary was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer in July 2021. Prior to his tenure at Century, he practiced law at Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz and Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP & Affiliates. He holds a Doctor of Law (JD) degree from Cornell Law School and a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.

Peter A. Trpkovski, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Mr. Trpkovski became part of Century Aluminum in 2013. He has served in several senior finance and investor relations roles, including Director of Financial Planning and Analysis, Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations, and Senior Vice President, Finance and Treasurer. In March 2025, Mr. Trpkovski was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Before joining Century, he worked at Citigroup as a Senior Financial Analyst and in finance and engineering roles at Johnson Controls. He holds degrees in Electrical and Computer Engineering and Finance from the University of Michigan.

Gunnar Guðlaugsson, Executive Vice President, Global Operations and Managing Director of Nordural

Mr. Guðlaugsson joined Century in 2008. He was appointed Plant Manager of Nordural Grundartangi ehf. in 2009, and later Vice President, European and Asian Operations and Plant Manager, Nordural Grundartangi in 2017. He became Managing Director of Nordural in 2019 and Executive Vice President, Global Operations in 2021. Before his time at Century, Mr. Guðlaugsson held numerous senior management positions with Rio Tinto Alcan in Straumsvik for over a decade.

John DeZee, Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary

Mr. DeZee joined Century in 2008 as Associate General Counsel, taking on roles of increasing responsibility before being promoted to Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary in May 2021. He began his legal career at Paul Hastings LLP in Los Angeles and also served as in-house counsel at James Hardie Building Products. Mr. DeZee received his B.A. from Whitman College and his J.D. from the University of California at Berkeley Law School.

Agust Hafberg, Senior Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

Mr. Hafberg has been with Century since 2007, serving in various commercial and business development capacities. He was promoted to Senior Vice President & Chief Commercial Officer in February 2019. Prior to joining Century, Mr. Hafberg held several management positions in shipping, logistics, and consulting in Europe. He holds a degree in Mechanical Engineering and an MBA from the University of Iceland.

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Key Risks to Century Aluminum (CENX)

  1. Aluminum Price Volatility and Global Competition: Century Aluminum's profitability is highly susceptible to the fluctuating prices of aluminum on the London Metal Exchange (LME) and regional premiums, such as the Midwest Premium. Market volatility, influenced by global supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and economic conditions, can significantly impact the company's sales and margins. A decrease in LME aluminum prices can directly and substantially reduce the company's EBITDA. Furthermore, the company faces competition from producers with potentially lower production costs or government subsidies, and there is a risk that China could flood the market with low-cost aluminum, dampening U.S. pricing power. The potential easing or removal of trade tariffs, which currently benefit the company, also poses a significant risk to its financial performance.
  2. Operational Challenges and High Energy Costs: Century Aluminum faces significant operational risks, particularly concerning the stability and execution of its production facilities. The company's aging operational base has experienced issues such as transformer failures at smelters and production instability, highlighting the sensitivity of its operations. Restarting idled capacity at U.S. smelters, such as Mt. Holly, introduces additional execution risk. A major component of the company's cost of production is electrical power, which can represent approximately 30-35% of total production expenses. Fluctuations in energy costs, as well as the need to secure competitive power arrangements, can significantly impact profitability and have led to production curtailments in the past.
  3. Financial Leverage and Free Cash Flow: Century Aluminum operates with a leveraged capital structure, which is typical for a capital-intensive business like aluminum production. A key concern for the company is its negative free cash flow, which was reported at US$71 million over a recent twelve-month period. The company's liabilities have exceeded its cash and near-term receivables, with liabilities totaling approximately US$1.22 billion more than its combined cash and receivables, a deficit that has been higher than its market capitalization. This indicates that debt is not well covered by operating cash flow, posing risks to the company's financial stability.

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One clear emerging threat for Century Aluminum (CENX) is the development and potential widespread adoption of **inert anode technology** for aluminum smelting.

Traditional aluminum smelters, like those operated by Century Aluminum, use carbon anodes which are consumed during the electrolysis process, releasing significant amounts of greenhouse gases (primarily CO2) and perfluorocarbons (PFCs). Inert anode technology, exemplified by initiatives like Elysis (a joint venture between Alcoa and Rio Tinto), aims to replace these carbon anodes with non-consumable, inert materials. This process produces oxygen instead of CO2, drastically reducing the carbon footprint of primary aluminum production.

If this technology scales successfully to commercial viability and becomes cost-effective, it could fundamentally disrupt the industry by:

  • Setting a new, much lower environmental standard for primary aluminum.
  • Potentially creating a significant cost advantage (especially in regions with carbon taxes or stricter environmental regulations) for producers adopting it.
  • Making traditional carbon-anode smelters less competitive or obsolete over the long term, particularly as global pressure for decarbonization intensifies.

While still in the development and demonstration phases, the active investment and progress by major industry players indicate it is a tangible and emerging threat with the potential to reshape the competitive landscape in a manner analogous to how new digital technologies displaced older physical ones in other industries.

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The addressable markets for Century Aluminum's main products are detailed below. Century Aluminum is a primary aluminum producer, supplying standard-grade, high-purity, and value-added primary aluminum products, including Natur-Alâ„¢ Standard Ingot, Primary Foundry Alloy (A356), and Billet.

  • Global Primary Aluminum Market: The global primary aluminum market was valued at US$107.23 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach US$152.85 billion by 2032, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4.59% from 2025-2032. Another estimate placed the global primary aluminum market at USD 105.17 billion in 2023, expected to reach USD 141.50 billion by 2030 with a CAGR of 3.6% from 2024-2030.

  • North American Primary Aluminum Market: The North American aluminum market, which includes primary aluminum, was valued at USD 66.34 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach USD 97.54 billion by 2031, with a CAGR of 4.4% from 2024-2031. The value of primary aluminum in the North America Aluminum Market is forecasted at USD 24.0 billion in 2024. Another report indicated the North America Aluminum Market size was valued at USD 27.11 billion in 2024 and is predicted to reach USD 35.53 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 4.6% from 2025 to 2030.

  • European Primary Aluminum Market: The Europe aluminum market, encompassing primary aluminum, was valued at USD 71.76 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.7% from 2024 to 2031. Other estimates show the Europe Aluminum Market valued at US$56.72 billion in 2024, expected to reach US$74.14 billion by 2031, with a CAGR of 3.9% from 2025-2031, or valued at USD 29.0 billion in 2024, with an expectation to reach USD 50.6 billion by 2035 at a CAGR of 5.2% from 2025 to 2035.

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Century Aluminum (CENX) is expected to experience future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors:

  1. Mount Holly Smelter Restart and Expansion: The full restart of the Mount Holly smelter, anticipated to reach full production by mid-2026, is a significant driver. This expansion is projected to increase U.S. primary aluminum production by nearly 10% and contribute substantially to future revenue and EBITDA.
  2. Favorable Aluminum Pricing and Tariffs: Expected higher realized London Metal Exchange (LME) prices and increased U.S. Midwest premiums are crucial for revenue growth. This trend is reinforced by U.S. trade policies, including the Section 232 tariffs on aluminum imports, which create a competitive advantage for domestic producers.
  3. Increased Domestic Demand for Aluminum: There is an anticipated rise in demand for domestically produced aluminum, particularly billets, in the U.S. This demand is influenced by revised Section 232 tariffs and the broader trend of reshoring manufacturing supply chains, allowing Century Aluminum to capitalize on a growing domestic market.
  4. Operational Enhancements and Capacity Optimization: Ongoing operational improvements at Century Aluminum's facilities are set to boost production volume and efficiency. This includes the Grundartangi smelter returning to full production, planned enhancements at the Jamalco refinery with a new steam turbine by year-end 2025, and major maintenance at the Sebree plant to improve reliability.
  5. Development of New U.S. Smelter Project: Progress on a new U.S. smelter project represents a long-term growth opportunity. If this project materializes within the next 2-3 years, it would further significantly expand the company's production capacity and revenue potential.

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Capital Allocation Decisions (Last 3-5 Years)

Share Repurchases

  • Century Aluminum has an existing share repurchase program with $43.7 million remaining under the authorization as of September 30, 2025.
  • No share repurchases were made during 2022, 2023, 2024, or the first nine months of 2025.
  • The company anticipates providing details on potential new share repurchase programs in 2026, following shareholder feedback.

Share Issuance

  • Between December 31, 2024, and June 30, 2025, issued shares increased by approximately 50,556, and outstanding shares also increased by roughly 50,556.

Inbound Investments

  • Century Aluminum was selected to receive a $500.0 million grant from the U.S. Department of Energy for building a new aluminum smelter.
  • The company accrued $220 million in Section 45X tax credits as of September 30, 2025, covering production from 2023, 2024, and year-to-date 2025, and received $75 million in October 2025 for fiscal year 2024.
  • Higher proceeds were received from a joint venture partner to fund co-tenancy asset construction, contributing to a decrease in net cash used in investing activities during the first nine months of 2025.

Outbound Investments

  • In 2023, Century Aluminum acquired a 55% interest in Jamalco, a bauxite mining and alumina refining operation.

Capital Expenditures

  • Capital expenditures were $95 million in 2023 and $82 million in 2024.
  • Projected capital expenditures are $79 million for 2025 and $80 million for 2026.
  • The Mt. Holly restart project is currently underway with an estimated cost of around $50 million, aiming for full production by Q3 2026.

Better Bets vs. Century Aluminum (CENX)

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Unique Key

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CENXAAKALUCSTMRSMedian
NameCentury .Alcoa Kaiser A.Constell.Reliance  
Mkt Price46.0459.95140.4123.29343.4359.95
Mkt Cap4.315.52.33.218.04.3
Rev LTM2,52512,8683,2097,96913,9227,969
Op Inc LTM1741,337144344982344
FCF LTM-3851913-4066213
FCF 3Y Avg-42-595-161,073-16
CFO LTM411,0631753321,029332
CFO 3Y Avg444931693621,488362

Growth & Margins

CENXAAKALUCSTMRSMedian
NameCentury .Alcoa Kaiser A.Constell.Reliance  
Rev Chg LTM20.1%16.9%7.7%6.5%-0.9%7.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-2.9%0.5%-2.2%-1.4%-7.0%-2.2%
Rev Chg Q17.3%3.1%12.8%20.2%6.8%12.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.8%0.7%3.1%4.8%1.7%3.1%
Op Mgn LTM6.9%10.4%4.5%4.3%7.1%6.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.5%3.2%3.5%4.4%9.6%3.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.5%-1.8%1.0%0.9%-0.2%-0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM1.6%8.3%5.5%4.2%7.4%5.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg2.0%4.0%5.4%4.6%10.3%4.6%
FCF/Rev LTM-1.5%4.0%0.4%-0.5%4.8%0.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-1.9%-0.8%0.2%-0.2%7.4%-0.2%

Valuation

CENXAAKALUCSTMRSMedian
NameCentury .Alcoa Kaiser A.Constell.Reliance  
Mkt Cap4.315.52.33.218.04.3
P/S1.71.20.70.41.31.2
P/EBIT37.310.214.510.516.414.5
P/E50.413.526.728.624.826.7
P/CFO105.314.613.09.717.514.6
Total Yield2.0%8.1%4.3%3.5%5.4%4.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.7%0.6%0.0%1.4%0.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-2.8%-2.3%0.3%-1.1%6.9%-1.1%
D/E0.10.20.50.70.10.2
Net D/E0.10.10.50.60.10.1

Returns

CENXAAKALUCSTMRSMedian
NameCentury .Alcoa Kaiser A.Constell.Reliance  
1M Rtn-3.2%-0.2%10.1%5.1%6.0%5.1%
3M Rtn60.0%59.5%54.8%51.0%27.1%54.8%
6M Rtn97.9%92.2%89.1%61.3%20.6%89.1%
12M Rtn119.9%67.5%107.1%149.4%17.3%107.1%
3Y Rtn332.7%27.5%78.7%65.3%48.0%65.3%
1M Excs Rtn-2.6%-5.8%11.9%3.6%10.1%3.6%
3M Excs Rtn55.9%50.0%48.7%45.2%25.2%48.7%
6M Excs Rtn89.7%86.2%82.8%59.7%13.7%82.8%
12M Excs Rtn115.4%54.2%89.6%134.8%8.7%89.6%
3Y Excs Rtn261.9%-43.2%16.5%-4.8%-10.4%-4.8%

Comparison Analyses

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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Aluminum2,1852,7772,2121,6051,837
Total2,1852,7772,2121,6051,837


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Aluminum1,8081,4321,5131,3321,434
Corporate, unallocated3840576866
Total1,8461,4721,5701,4001,500


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$46.04 
Market Cap ($ Bil)4.3 
First Trading Date03/29/1996 
Distance from 52W High-15.3% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$42.25$28.01
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA9.0%64.3%
 3M1YR
Volatility63.4%70.4%
Downside Capture180.83166.33
Upside Capture437.74228.44
Correlation (SPY)53.9%50.9%
CENX Betas & Captures as of 1/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.611.781.962.001.801.93
Up Beta-1.620.25-1.221.081.521.63
Down Beta-0.500.331.611.081.831.98
Up Capture350%620%554%580%575%2410%
Bmk +ve Days11223471142430
Stock +ve Days13253670126371
Down Capture64%74%171%168%135%112%
Bmk -ve Days9192754109321
Stock -ve Days7162555123372

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with CENX
CENX135.4%70.5%1.51-
Sector ETF (XLB)22.2%20.8%0.8653.0%
Equity (SPY)14.0%19.4%0.5550.7%
Gold (GLD)74.3%25.3%2.1730.7%
Commodities (DBC)7.0%16.7%0.2433.4%
Real Estate (VNQ)7.9%16.6%0.2835.1%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-29.8%44.9%-0.6531.9%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with CENX
CENX29.6%74.1%0.67-
Sector ETF (XLB)9.6%18.9%0.4056.3%
Equity (SPY)13.3%17.0%0.6245.6%
Gold (GLD)22.1%17.0%1.0625.6%
Commodities (DBC)10.5%18.9%0.4439.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.2%18.8%0.1834.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)8.3%57.2%0.3723.2%

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Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with CENX
CENX26.4%71.6%0.65-
Sector ETF (XLB)12.3%20.7%0.5352.3%
Equity (SPY)15.6%17.9%0.7543.8%
Gold (GLD)15.3%15.6%0.8216.4%
Commodities (DBC)8.1%17.6%0.3839.0%
Real Estate (VNQ)6.4%20.7%0.2730.5%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)67.9%66.7%1.0715.4%

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Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date1302026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity8.4 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 1152026-0.6%
Average Daily Volume2.2 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.8 days
Basic Shares Quantity93.3 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares9.0%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/7/20251.6%4.1%-4.0%
5/7/2025-2.0%7.8%23.5%
2/20/2025-13.3%-3.3%-3.6%
11/4/202420.0%26.3%35.5%
8/8/2024-2.5%4.9%-6.7%
5/1/2024-7.7%1.2%10.8%
2/21/2024-3.3%-4.9%19.4%
11/8/20233.0%17.5%22.7%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive91210
# Negative11810
Median Positive4.6%7.1%27.6%
Median Negative-7.7%-6.4%-6.7%
Max Positive20.0%37.6%44.8%
Max Negative-19.1%-13.6%-45.3%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202511/06/202510-Q
06/30/202508/07/202510-Q
03/31/202505/08/202510-Q
12/31/202403/03/202510-K
09/30/202411/04/202410-Q
06/30/202408/08/202410-Q
03/31/202405/01/202410-Q
12/31/202303/15/202410-K
09/30/202311/08/202310-Q
06/30/202308/09/202310-Q
03/31/202305/09/202310-Q
12/31/202202/27/202310-K
09/30/202211/07/202210-Q
06/30/202208/09/202210-Q
03/31/202205/02/202210-Q
12/31/202102/25/202210-K

Insider Activity

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#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Glencore, International AgDirectSell1113202530.259,000,000272,250,000559,625,000Form
2Hafberg, Agust FSVP & Chief Commercial OfficerDirectSell930202527.919,493264,9501,542,307Form
3Calloway, Kenneth LSVP, Human ResourcesDirectSell923202527.5016,450452,375789,415Form
4Aboud, MattSVP, Strategy & Business Dev'tDirectSell814202523.2712,027279,8681,456,446Form
5Hoffman, Robert FSVP, IT and CAODirectSell324202520.245,000101,2001,195,840Form