Century Aluminum (CENX)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $32.11 | Market Cap: $3.0 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Aluminum
Century Aluminum (CENX)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $32.11Market Cap: $3.0 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Aluminum
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Wind Energy Development, Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 67x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.9% | |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5% | |
| Key risksCENX key risks include [1] operational challenges from an aging asset base and execution risk in restarting idled smelters, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Wind Energy Development, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 67x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.9% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5% |
| Key risksCENX key risks include [1] operational challenges from an aging asset base and execution risk in restarting idled smelters, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CENX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Century Aluminum (CENX) stock movement from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, can be attributed to several key factors.
1. Strong Q3 2025 Outlook Driven by Tariff Benefits: Century Aluminum's management provided optimistic guidance for the third quarter of 2025, projecting adjusted EBITDA to be between $115 million and $125 million. This substantial increase from Q2 2025's adjusted EBITDA of $74.3 million is primarily due to anticipated higher realized premiums in the U.S. Midwest, following significant increases in Section 232 aluminum tariffs. These tariffs were raised to 25% in March 2025 and further to 50% in June 2025, with their full benefit expected to be reflected in Q3 2025 results.
2. Restart of Mt. Holly Smelter Capacity: The company announced the restart of the final 50,000 tonnes of production capacity at its Mt. Holly smelter in South Carolina. This strategic decision is a direct outcome of the Section 232 program and is expected to boost U.S. primary aluminum production by nearly 10%, indicating increased operational scale and potential revenue generation.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CENX Return | 47% | 50% | -51% | 48% | 50% | 77% | 329% |
| Peers Return | 2% | 56% | -12% | 21% | -9% | 45% | 124% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CENX Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 60% | 44% | 52% | 48% | 71% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CENX Max Drawdown | -60% | -12% | -68% | -29% | -18% | -25% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -59% | -12% | -32% | -19% | -24% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AA, KALU, CSTM, RS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CENX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -82.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 458.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1098 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -62.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 163.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 119 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -78.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 372.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 917 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -98.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 7446.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
Compare to AA, KALU, CENX, CSTM
In The Past
Century Aluminum's stock fell -82.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/4/2022. A -82.1% loss requires a 458.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CENX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 42.2% | 42.2% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.0% | 15.0% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 42.2% | 42.2% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.0% | 15.0% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Century Aluminum
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 46.84 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.0 |
| Rev LTM | 7,969 |
| Op Inc LTM | 344 |
| FCF LTM | 13 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -16 |
| CFO LTM | 332 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 362 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -2.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 5.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 0.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -0.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.0 |
| P/S | 0.7 |
| P/EBIT | 8.0 |
| P/E | 18.3 |
| P/CFO | 8.0 |
| Total Yield | 6.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -0.8% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 21.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 21.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 50.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 53.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 60.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 20.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 18.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 37.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 40.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -16.0% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/7/2025 | 1.6% | 4.1% | -4.0% |
| 5/7/2025 | -2.0% | 7.8% | 23.5% |
| 2/20/2025 | -13.3% | -3.3% | -3.6% |
| 11/4/2024 | 20.0% | 26.3% | 35.5% |
| 8/8/2024 | -2.5% | 4.9% | -6.7% |
| 5/1/2024 | -7.7% | 1.2% | 10.8% |
| 2/21/2024 | -3.3% | -4.9% | 19.4% |
| 11/8/2023 | 3.0% | 17.5% | 22.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 13 | 10 |
| # Negative | 11 | 8 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 4.8% | 6.4% | 27.6% |
| Median Negative | -7.7% | -6.4% | -6.7% |
| Max Positive | 20.0% | 37.6% | 44.8% |
| Max Negative | -19.1% | -13.6% | -45.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3032025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11042024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5022022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
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