Century Aluminum (CENX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $30.95 | Market Cap: $2.9 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Aluminum
Century Aluminum (CENX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $30.95Market Cap: $2.9 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Aluminum
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Wind Energy Development, Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 67x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.9% | |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Wind Energy Development, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 67x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.9% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CENX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
**1. Century Aluminum reported strong third-quarter 2025 financial results and provided an optimistic outlook for the fourth quarter.** The company saw a significant sequential increase in net income, reaching $14.9 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $101.1 million, driven primarily by favorable realized Midwest Premium. Management projected Q4 adjusted EBITDA to be substantially higher, in the range of $170 million to $180 million, anticipating further increases in LME and Midwest premiums.
**2. The company benefited from favorable global aluminum market conditions and the impact of increased U.S. tariffs.** Century Aluminum highlighted "outstanding global market conditions" with rising aluminum prices and "persistently challenged supply side" dynamics. An increase in Section 232 tariffs on imported steel and aluminum to 50%, effective June 4, 2025, contributed to higher spot aluminum premiums in the U.S. market, positively impacting the company's revenue and profitability.
**3. Century Aluminum finalized a long-term power agreement for its Mt. Holly smelter and initiated expansion plans.** A power agreement for the Mt. Holly facility was extended through 2031, securing operational stability. This agreement supports the restart of over 50,000 metric tons per year of incremental production at Mt. Holly, which is expected to begin in the second quarter of 2026, signaling future capacity expansion.
**4. Significant progress was made on the development of a new U.S. aluminum smelter.** The company advanced its plans for a new primary aluminum smelter in the United States, narrowing the focus to a single site and power provider, and engaging in early discussions with potential joint venture partners. This project, potentially backed by a U.S. Department of Energy grant of up to $500 million, underscores Century Aluminum's long-term growth strategy and commitment to domestic production.
**5. Equity research analysts issued positive revisions and increased price targets for CENX.** Several analysts maintained or upgraded their ratings and raised price objectives for Century Aluminum during this period. For example, BMO Capital Markets and Wells Fargo increased their target prices to $34.00 and $37.00, respectively, and maintained "outperform" or "overweight" ratings, reflecting strong market confidence in the company's prospects.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CENX Return | 47% | 50% | -51% | 48% | 50% | 63% | 295% |
| Peers Return | 13% | 59% | -31% | 23% | 4% | 46% | 130% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CENX Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 56% | 44% | 50% | 46% | 70% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CENX Max Drawdown | -60% | -12% | -68% | -29% | -18% | -25% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -64% | -14% | -47% | -26% | -27% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AA, KALU, CENX, CSTM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CENX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -82.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 458.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1098 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -62.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 163.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 119 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -78.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 372.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 917 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -98.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 7446.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
Compare to AA, KALU, CENX, CSTM
In The Past
Century Aluminum's stock fell -82.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/4/2022. A -82.1% loss requires a 458.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CENX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Century Aluminum
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 37.52 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.7 |
| Rev LTM | 5,589 |
| Op Inc LTM | 259 |
| FCF LTM | -12 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -29 |
| CFO LTM | 254 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 266 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 4.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -0.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -0.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.7 |
| P/S | 0.5 |
| P/EBIT | 7.3 |
| P/E | 16.5 |
| P/CFO | 7.6 |
| Total Yield | 6.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -1.4% |
| D/E | 0.6 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 11.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 39.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 48.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 29.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 38.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 11.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 34.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 33.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 20.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -28.1% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3032025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11042024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5022022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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