Block (XYZ)


Market Price (11/5/2026): $87.0 | Market Cap: $52.6 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Financials | Industry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services

Block (XYZ)


Market Price (11/5/2026): $87.0
Market Cap: $52.6 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 3.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.5 Bil

Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 6.5%

Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 4.4 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 48%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Crypto & Blockchain. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, Show more.

Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -11%

Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 114x

Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.4%

Key risks
XYZ key risks include [1] federal scrutiny and class-action lawsuits over alleged widespread compliance failures and user figure manipulation, Show more.

0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 3.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.5 Bil
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 6.5%
3 Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 4.4 Bil
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 48%
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Crypto & Blockchain. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, Show more.
6 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%
7 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -11%
8 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 114x
9 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.4%
10 Key risks
XYZ key risks include [1] federal scrutiny and class-action lawsuits over alleged widespread compliance failures and user figure manipulation, Show more.

XYZ in ETFs

Weight = XYZ's share of each fund

SPY0.06%
VOO0.06%
IVV0.06%
VTI0.05%
ITOT0.06%
IWB0.06%
VUG0.13%
VO0.39%
+22 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 11/4/2026

Block (XYZ) stock has gained about 10% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Block (XYZ) surpassed analyst expectations for its fiscal third quarter of 2026 with robust financial results. The company reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.13, a significant 109.3% increase year-over-year, and exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 10.8%. Revenues also climbed by 9.9% year-over-year to $6.72 billion, beating the consensus estimate by 1.5%. This strong performance was primarily fueled by a 27% year-over-year increase in Cash App gross profit to $2.07 billion, driven by a 40% jump in consumer lending originations to $19 billion. Additionally, Square's gross payment volume (GPV) grew 14% year-over-year to $76.4 billion.

2. The company raised its full-year 2026 financial guidance and provided an optimistic initial outlook for fiscal year 2027. Following the strong third-quarter results, Block (XYZ) increased its adjusted EPS outlook for full-year 2026 to $4.15, projecting a 75% year-over-year growth, up from the previous forecast of $4.02. The gross profit outlook for 2026 was also raised to $12.63 billion, indicating 22% growth. For fiscal year 2027, Block (XYZ) anticipates gross profit growth of at least 15%, reaching $14.52 billion, and expects adjusted operating income to rise 30% to $4.58 billion, with an expanded operating margin of 32%.

Show more
Updated on 11/4/2026

Block (XYZ) stock has gained about 10% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Block (XYZ) surpassed analyst expectations for its fiscal third quarter of 2026 with robust financial results. The company reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.13, a significant 109.3% increase year-over-year, and exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 10.8%. Revenues also climbed by 9.9% year-over-year to $6.72 billion, beating the consensus estimate by 1.5%. This strong performance was primarily fueled by a 27% year-over-year increase in Cash App gross profit to $2.07 billion, driven by a 40% jump in consumer lending originations to $19 billion. Additionally, Square's gross payment volume (GPV) grew 14% year-over-year to $76.4 billion.

2. The company raised its full-year 2026 financial guidance and provided an optimistic initial outlook for fiscal year 2027. Following the strong third-quarter results, Block (XYZ) increased its adjusted EPS outlook for full-year 2026 to $4.15, projecting a 75% year-over-year growth, up from the previous forecast of $4.02. The gross profit outlook for 2026 was also raised to $12.63 billion, indicating 22% growth. For fiscal year 2027, Block (XYZ) anticipates gross profit growth of at least 15%, reaching $14.52 billion, and expects adjusted operating income to rise 30% to $4.58 billion, with an expanded operating margin of 32%.

3. Positive analyst sentiment, including multiple price target increases, reinforced confidence in Block's (XYZ) growth trajectory. In response to the strong Q3 2026 earnings beat and favorable guidance, numerous analysts reiterated "Buy" ratings and elevated their price targets for Block (XYZ) stock. For instance, Susquehanna raised its target to $110, Bank of America to $117, Royal Bank of Canada to $103, and Needham reaffirmed a $100 target. The consensus rating on Wall Street for Block (XYZ) shares remained a "Moderate Buy," with an average price target ranging from $97.45 to $101.62, suggesting further upside potential.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 7.9% change in XYZ stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 90.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)731202611042026Change
Stock Price ($)81.2487.637.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)24,47925,6464.8%
Net Income Margin (%)3.3%1.8%-45.5%
P/E Multiple60.2114.590.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)598603-0.8%
Cumulative Contribution7.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2026 to 11/4/2026
ReturnCorrelation
XYZ7.9% 
Market (SPY)2.6%55.2%
Sector (XLF)4.0%66.7%

Fundamental Drivers

The 24.3% change in XYZ stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 249.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)430202611042026Change
Stock Price ($)70.5187.6324.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)24,19425,6466.0%
Net Income Margin (%)5.4%1.8%-66.7%
P/E Multiple32.8114.5249.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)6076030.7%
Cumulative Contribution24.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2026 to 11/4/2026
ReturnCorrelation
XYZ24.3% 
Market (SPY)7.0%48.9%
Sector (XLF)14.0%49.9%

Fundamental Drivers

The 15.4% change in XYZ stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 627.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)1031202511042026Change
Stock Price ($)75.9487.6315.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)23,83525,6467.6%
Net Income Margin (%)12.4%1.8%-85.5%
P/E Multiple15.7114.5627.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)6136031.7%
Cumulative Contribution15.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 11/4/2026
ReturnCorrelation
XYZ15.4% 
Market (SPY)13.4%50.0%
Sector (XLF)14.4%47.7%

Fundamental Drivers

The 117.7% change in XYZ stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 66.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)1031202311042026Change
Stock Price ($)40.2587.63117.7%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)19,69225,64630.2%
P/S Multiple1.22.166.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)6076030.7%
Cumulative Contribution117.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2023 to 11/4/2026
ReturnCorrelation
XYZ117.7% 
Market (SPY)89.7%54.7%
Sector (XLF)91.0%49.7%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
XYZ Return-26%-61%23%10%-23%35%-60%
Peers Return-11%-68%188%26%1%-1%3%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%11%102%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
XYZ Win Rate50%42%42%58%58%73% 
Peers Win Rate47%32%65%48%53%47% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%36% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
XYZ Max Drawdown-44%-69%-56%-33%-50%-31% 
Peers Max Drawdown-39%-73%-39%-38%-45%-39% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PYPL, GPN, AFRM, COIN, SHOP.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/4/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventXYZS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-44.5%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven80.3%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven459 days79 days
2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind
  % Loss-11.1%-7.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven12.5%8.5%
  Time to Breakeven11 days18 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-49.0%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven96.0%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven50 days24 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-27.7%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven38.3%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven62 days31 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-55.3%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven123.8%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven74 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-47.7%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven91.2%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven541 days105 days

Compare to PYPL, GPN, AFRM, COIN, SHOP

In The Past

Block's stock fell -44.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 80.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventXYZS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-44.5%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven80.3%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven459 days79 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-49.0%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven96.0%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven50 days24 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-27.7%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven38.3%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven62 days31 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-55.3%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven123.8%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven74 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-47.7%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven91.2%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven541 days105 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-36.0%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven56.2%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven42 days62 days
2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
  % Loss-36.0%-6.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven56.2%7.3%
  Time to Breakeven42 days15 days

Compare to PYPL, GPN, AFRM, COIN, SHOP

In The Past

Block's stock fell -44.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 80.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Block (XYZ)

Block, Inc. is a technology company that provides a comprehensive suite of tools designed to empower both businesses and individual consumers. For businesses, primarily operating under its "Square" brand, Block offers integrated hardware and software solutions that enable sellers to accept various card payments, including traditional swipes, chips, and contactless methods. This ecosystem includes physical payment devices like Square Terminal and Square Register, alongside specialized point-of-sale software for retail, restaurants, and appointments, complemented by tools for online stores, invoicing, and business analytics.

Beyond its robust seller-focused platforms, Block also serves individual consumers through its popular "Cash App." This mobile application allows users to easily send, spend, and store money, providing a versatile personal finance solution. Furthermore, Block supports online presence creation with "Weebly," offering website hosting and domain name registration services, which rounds out its digital offerings for businesses aiming to establish an online footprint.

Overall, Block's mission is to simplify financial interactions and business operations across a broad spectrum of users. Its primary customers include small to large businesses seeking efficient payment processing and management tools, as well as individual consumers utilizing Cash App for their everyday financial needs. The company operates globally, serving markets across the United States, Canada, Japan, Australia, and several European countries.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Shopify for small businesses with physical locations.

A blend of Venmo and Chime for personal finance.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Seller Ecosystem / Payment Processing Tools: A comprehensive suite of hardware and software solutions that enable businesses to accept card payments, manage operations, and analyze sales data.
  • Cash App: A mobile financial service allowing users to send, spend, and store money, along with peer-to-peer payments and banking functionalities.
  • Weebly: A web hosting and domain name registration platform that helps customers create and manage websites.
  • Developer Platform: Provides application programming interfaces (APIs) and software development kits (SDKs) for third-party integration and custom development.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Block, Inc. serves a diverse customer base that can be categorized as follows:
  • Small and Medium-Sized Businesses (SMBs): These customers utilize Block's Square ecosystem for various business operations. This includes merchants in retail, restaurants, and service industries who use Square's hardware (e.g., Square Register, Square Terminal), software (e.g., Square Point of Sale, Square for Retail), and payment processing services to accept card payments, manage appointments, inventory, and online sales.
  • Individual Consumers: This significant customer segment primarily uses the Cash App for personal financial activities. Cash App users send, spend, and store money, make peer-to-peer payments, access direct deposit, and utilize debit card services, as well as engage in investment features.
  • Online Presence Seekers (Individuals and Small Businesses): Customers looking to establish or maintain an online presence use Weebly, a Block subsidiary, for website hosting and domain name registration solutions.

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Major Suppliers of Block, Inc. (XYZ)
  • Visa Inc. (V)
  • Mastercard Incorporated (MA)
  • Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
  • Wells Fargo & Company (WFC)

AI Analysis | Feedback

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Jack Dorsey, Block Head and Chairperson

Jack Dorsey co-founded Block (formerly Square) in 2009. He also co-founded Twitter (now X) in 2006, serving as its CEO from 2007-2008 and again from 2015-2021. Earlier in his career, he created dispatch software at age 15 that some taxicab companies still use, and in 2000, he started a company to dispatch couriers, taxis, and emergency services online. Dorsey stepped down as Twitter's CEO in November 2021 to dedicate his focus to Block. He is recognized as a tech visionary and a strong advocate for Bitcoin.

Amrita Ahuja, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer

Amrita Ahuja joined Block (then Square) in January 2019 as CFO and took on the expanded role of COO in February 2023. She also serves as Chairperson of Block's industrial bank, Square Financial Services. Prior to Block, Ahuja was CFO of Blizzard Entertainment, a division of Activision Blizzard, and held leadership positions at Fox Networks Group, where she contributed to the launch of Hulu. Her career also includes roles at The Walt Disney Company in Strategic Planning and as an investment banking analyst at Morgan Stanley. She was drawn to Block by its mission to empower small business owners, a cause resonant with her own parents, who were Indian immigrants and ran a daycare center. Ahuja is a board member for both Airbnb and Discord. She has been instrumental in Block's strategic initiatives, including long-term investments in AI and cryptocurrency, and the acquisitions of TIDAL and Afterpay.

Brian Grassadonia, Ecosystem Lead

Brian Grassadonia is Block's Ecosystem Lead, focusing on integrating Square, Cash App, and other parts of Block's ecosystem through product experiences. He played a pivotal role as Square's first product lead, helping launch its initial card reader in 2010. He also co-created Cash App and previously served as its CEO. Before joining Block, Grassadonia worked at a startup that was acquired by Google and in investment banking at UBS.

Robert Andersen, Principal Designer

Robert Andersen is Block's Principal Designer. As Block's first employee in 2009, he led the creative processes that resulted in the original Square and Cash App products. He is a self-taught designer with over 20 years of professional experience, having joined Apple's internet services team at the age of 19.

Roelof Botha, Lead Independent Director

Roelof Botha has been a member of Block's board since 2011 and has served as Lead Independent Director since June 2022. He is a Senior Steward and Managing Member at Sequoia Capital, a venture capital firm, a role he has held since 2003. Prior to his tenure at Sequoia, Botha served as the Chief Financial Officer of PayPal from 2000 to 2003, where he oversaw the company's IPO in 2002 and its subsequent acquisition by eBay. He has served on the boards of numerous companies, including YouTube and Meebo (both acquired by Google), Weebly (acquired by Square/Block), and Tumblr (acquired by Yahoo!).

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AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to Block, Inc.'s business are:

  1. Regulatory Scrutiny and Compliance Failures: Block, Inc. faces significant regulatory challenges, particularly concerning anti-money laundering (AML) and Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) compliance on its Cash App platform, especially regarding Bitcoin transactions. Recent regulatory findings have highlighted deficiencies in its compliance framework, leading to substantial financial penalties. For instance, in early 2025, Block agreed to an $80 million settlement with 48 state financial regulators for BSA/AML violations. Separately, the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) imposed a $40 million penalty for "critical gaps" in its anti-money laundering requirements and failures to comply with virtual currency regulations. These settlements also mandate the appointment of independent monitors to oversee remediation efforts and ensure a more robust compliance program, indicating ongoing oversight.
  2. Bitcoin Volatility and Related Business Risks: Block's substantial involvement with Bitcoin, including direct investments, its Spiral and TBD ecosystems, and Bitcoin services within Cash App, exposes the company to the inherent volatility and unpredictable nature of the cryptocurrency market. This exposure has previously led to significant unrealized losses on its Bitcoin investments. The experimental nature of Bitcoin, coupled with potential future regulations, macroeconomic factors, and risks of fraud and cybercrime, could lead to future downturns and impact Block's financial performance.
  3. Intense Competition and Profitability Concerns: Block operates in a highly competitive fintech market, contending with both traditional financial institutions and numerous emerging technology companies such as PayPal, Stripe, Shopify, Venmo, Zelle, Apple Pay, and Google Pay. This intense competition can exert pressure on pricing, increase customer acquisition costs, and potentially lead to market share erosion. Furthermore, Block has historically struggled with profitability, recording net losses and experiencing relatively low operating margins compared to competitors, raising questions about its ability to generate sufficient cash flow to fund growth and achieve higher valuations. Recent large-scale workforce reductions, while aimed at efficiency through AI integration, also introduce execution risks that could impact operational stability and customer experience.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • The emergence of payment acceptance solutions like Apple's "Tap to Pay on iPhone," which allows merchants to accept contactless payments directly on a smartphone without requiring dedicated hardware, thereby threatening Block's Square hardware sales and integrated point-of-sale solutions.
  • The aggressive expansion of major technology companies, particularly Apple, into comprehensive consumer financial services, including peer-to-peer payments (Apple Cash), debit card functionality, and high-yield savings accounts, directly challenging Block's Cash App ecosystem as a primary mobile financial hub for consumers.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Block, Inc. - Addressable Markets

Block, Inc. (formerly Square, Inc.) operates in several large and growing addressable markets through its Square seller ecosystem, Cash App, and Weebly platform.

Square Seller Services (Payment Processing, POS Solutions, Business Software)

  • The global Point-of-Sale (POS) terminal market was valued at approximately USD 123.15 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 226.87 billion by 2033, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.9% from 2026 to 2033. North America held a significant share of 29.09% in this market in 2025.
  • Another estimate places the global POS market size at USD 38.56 billion in 2025, growing to USD 138.92 billion by 2034 with a CAGR of 15.3%.
  • The global payment processing solutions market was valued at USD 173.38 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 1,051.93 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 19.76% from 2026 to 2035.
  • In the United States, the payment processing solutions market was valued at USD 40 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 36.75 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 12.6% from 2024 to 2030.
  • For Europe, the payment processing solutions market generated USD 14,458.3 million in revenue in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 35,181.9 million by 2030, with a CAGR of 13.5% from 2024 to 2030.
  • Block's management identifies a market opportunity for its Square segment as large as USD 130 billion in annual gross profit.

Cash App (Digital Wallets, P2P Payments, Consumer Financial Services)

  • The total addressable market (TAM) for digital payments globally is estimated at USD 16.7 trillion by 2028. The serviceable addressable market (SAM) for cash apps and digital wallets is estimated at USD 4.2 trillion globally by 2028.
  • The global P2P payment market was valued at USD 3.07 trillion in 2024 and is projected to reach approximately USD 16.21 trillion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 18.10% from 2025 to 2034. North America captured approximately 40% of the global P2P payment market in 2023.
  • The U.S. mobile P2P payments market reached transaction values of USD 1,261.53 billion in 2023 and is projected to increase to approximately USD 1,375.93 billion in 2024.
  • The global mobile wallet market was valued at USD 204.66 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 784.67 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 18.56%.
  • The U.S. mobile wallet market is projected to grow from USD 2.52 billion in 2024 to USD 6.76 billion in 2032, at a CAGR of 13.12% during the forecast period 2025-2032.
  • Block's management identifies a market opportunity for Cash App as large as USD 75 billion in annual gross profit.

Weebly (Website Builders and Web Hosting)

  • The global website builder market was expected to reach approximately USD 1.8 billion in 2023 and is projected to surpass USD 3.5 billion over the next decade, with a CAGR of 6.9% from 2022-2032. Another report indicates the global website builder tool market was valued at USD 14.34 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 98.94 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 27.30%.
  • North America dominated the website builder tool market with a share of approximately 40% in 2025.
  • The global web hosting services market was valued at USD 137.73 billion in 2025 and is estimated to reach USD 389.52 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 12.25% from 2026-2034. North America dominates this market, holding a 43% market share.
  • The U.S. accounts for approximately 89% of the web hosting services market growth.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Block, Inc. (symbol: XYZ) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies centered on expanding its two primary ecosystems, Square and Cash App, enhancing product offerings, and extending its global reach. Here are the expected drivers of Block's future revenue growth: * **Cash App Ecosystem Expansion and Monetization:** Block aims to establish Cash App as a leading provider of banking services for U.S. households earning up to $150,000 annually. This will involve broadening its offerings beyond peer-to-peer payments to include services like direct deposit, savings, investing, and small-dollar credit. Further monetization is expected through increased card interchange, instant deposit fees, and brokerage revenues. The integration of Afterpay's Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) functionality within Cash App is also projected to boost seller conversion, average order value, and gross profit per active user. Products like Cash App Borrow, which provides small, short-term loans, are also contributing to growth. * **Square Ecosystem Upmarket Expansion and Product Innovation:** Block is focusing on expanding its Square ecosystem to serve larger, mid-market, and multi-location sellers. This strategy involves offering more specialized software solutions, such as Square for Restaurants, Square for Retail, and Square Appointments, along with integrated payroll, banking, and marketing tools to increase average revenue per user (ARPU). The company is also enhancing its developer platform and partner ecosystem, introducing new products and features, and improving gross payment volume (GPV) growth through ongoing innovation and go-to-market initiatives, including consolidating existing Point of Sale apps and launching new payment functionalities. * **International Expansion:** Block is actively pursuing international growth, particularly in markets such as the U.K., EU, Australia, Japan, and Canada. The company aims for sustained double-digit international gross profit growth and plans to achieve product parity and localized payment solutions in these regions through 2025-2026. International Gross Payment Volume (GPV) for Square has demonstrated significantly faster growth compared to its U.S. counterpart, indicating strong potential for this driver. * **Ecosystem Synergies and AI-Driven Product Velocity:** A core part of Block's growth strategy involves creating stronger synergies and cross-selling opportunities between its Square and Cash App ecosystems. By connecting Cash App's large user base with Square sellers through features like discovery, offers, and loyalty programs, Block intends to foster a closed-loop demand flywheel, driving increased engagement and transaction volume across both platforms. Additionally, Block is transitioning to an "AI-native operational model" and expects enterprise-wide AI deployment to not only boost operating income margins through efficiency but also contribute to product-led expansion and accelerate product development across its offerings.

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Share Repurchases

  • In November 2025, Block announced a $5 billion increase to its existing share repurchase program for its Class A common stock.
  • As of September 30, 2025, approximately $1.1 billion remained available under Block's previous $4 billion share repurchase authorization.
  • Block repurchased $790 million worth of Class A shares in Q4 2025, contributing to $2.3 billion in total repurchases for the year 2025.

Share Issuance

  • Block's acquisition of Afterpay in January 2022 involved a payment of US$29 billion in stock.
  • The acquisition of a majority ownership in Tidal in March 2021 by Square (now Block) was for $297 million in cash and stock.

Inbound Investments

  • Institutional investors and hedge funds owned 70.44% of Block's stock as of March 9, 2026, reflecting increasing confidence.
  • In Q2 2025, several large institutions acquired significant new positions in Block, including Vanguard Group Inc. ($3.73 billion) and Sands Capital Management LLC ($702.4 million).

Outbound Investments

  • In January 2022, Block finalized the acquisition of Afterpay, a "buy now, pay later" service, for US$29 billion in stock.
  • In March 2021, Square (now Block) acquired a majority stake in the music streaming platform Tidal for $297 million in cash and stock.
  • Square acquired Credit Karma Tax for $50 million in November 2020, integrating it into its Cash App unit.

Capital Expenditures

  • Capital expenditures were reported as $298 million for 2025, $250 million for 2024, and $217 million for 2023.
  • In Q4 2025, Block invested $41.2 million in capital expenditures, focusing on funding long-term assets and infrastructure.
  • The primary focus of capital expenditures includes investing in product development and advancing the Square and Cash App ecosystems.

Better Bets vs. Block (XYZ)

Peer Outperformance in Transaction & Payment Processing Services

XYZ has trailed 88% of its 16 Transaction & Payment Processing Services peers over 5Y. Among the peers that beat it are WEX and GPN. Transaction & Payment Processing Services ranks 16th of 18 industries in Financials by median 5Y return. The sector’s gains have largely come from elsewhere.
Share of Transaction & Payment Processing Services constituents that XYZ has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
44%
of 18 industry peers · 20.7% return
3Y
78%
of 18 industry peers · 80.0% return
5Y
13%
of 16 industry peers · -64.6% return
Transaction & Payment Processing Services peers with revenue growth within 4pp of XYZ's that beat it on at least 2 of 3 windows, and by at least 20pp over 5Y. Growth is matched by construction, so the gap is largely a re-rating gap. The multiple column is the context for it.
Ticker Name Rev Growth 3Y Avg P/E 1Y3Y5Y 5Y Gap
XYZ Block 7.4% 114.5x 20.7%80.0%-64.6% —
WEX WEX 4.9% 15.1x 21.7%2.7%18.5% +83pp
GPN Global Payments 6.0% -27.8x 21.7%-12.7%-25.5% +39pp
Price returns, excluding dividends. P/E shown for context only and not used for matching.
Median price return by industry across the Financials sector, ranked by 5Y. Transaction & Payment Processing Services is XYZ's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
Industry Names 1Y med3Y med5Y med Top 3 by 5Y
Reinsurance 6 35.5%75.2%130.3% SPNT 170% · RNR 149% · RGA 146%
Investment Banking & Brokerage 13 1.8%95.7%99.6% IBKR 329% · SNEX 173% · GS 157%
Diversified Banks 12 34.2%147.9%96.6% CM 152% · JPM 137% · RY 136%
Multi-Sector Holdings 4 10.9%62.5%86.0% BRK-B 101% · VOYA 71% · JEF 44%
Life & Health Insurance 20 12.7%56.2%79.1% JXN 536% · UNM 233% · MFC 202%
Property & Casualty Insurance 42 23.5%76.1%70.7% TRV 188% · PGR 177% · ACGL 176%
Multi-line Insurance 9 9.6%68.6%58.3% GNW 115% · AIZ 104% · L 100%
Regional Banks 264 34.6%91.5%51.6% CBC 273% · FCNCA 183% · NIC 143%
Financial Exchanges & Data 15 20.6%40.7%36.8% CBOE 178% · VIRT 125% · CME 72%
Insurance Brokers 15 5.9%14.3%32.4% LIFE 337% · ARX 89% · AJG 89%
Asset Management & Custody Banks 85 -4.4%22.2%12.7% VCTR 270% · WT 220% · AAMI 208%
Consumer Finance 30 8.6%85.4%9.8% ENVA 391% · FCFS 139% · AXP 105%
Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance 14 -47.8%26.0%4.2% FNMA 349% · FMCC 316% · ACT 157%
Diversified Financial Services 4 2.0%22.6%3.3% FRHC 166% · EQH 80%
Specialized Finance 3 16.0%34.5%-18.0% HASI -18% · CACC -28%
Transaction & Payment Processing Services ← 17 21.7%25.4%-23.2% V 117% · MA 107% · CPAY 73%
Mortgage REITs 35 -17.6%-5.3%-32.0% RITM 38% · DX 20% · AGNC 12%
Diversified Capital Markets 20 -39.8%6.3%-65.5% LPLA 87% · TW 39% · RIOT -53%
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are limited to companies above $2B market cap.

Latest Trefis Analyses

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

XYZPYPLGPNAFRMCOINSHOPMedian
NameBlock PayPal Global P.Affirm Coinbase.Shopify  
Mkt Price87.0060.1495.3075.85152.63152.7591.15
Mkt Cap52.451.125.725.740.3196.645.7
Rev LTM25,64634,29510,2314,2615,63014,16712,199
Op Inc LTM3,3866,3509908713202,5601,775
FCF LTM3,4536,2998239931,4092,5621,986
FCF 3Y Avg2,0016,3031,7856282,0171,9661,983
CFO LTM3,6237,0931,6581,2311,4092,6822,170
CFO 3Y Avg2,1647,0632,4918252,0202,0182,092

Growth & Margins

XYZPYPLGPNAFRMCOINSHOPMedian
NameBlock PayPal Global P.Affirm Coinbase.Shopify  
Rev Chg LTM7.0%4.4%32.5%32.2%-26.6%32.5%19.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg7.4%5.6%6.0%39.1%36.0%28.7%18.1%
Rev Chg Q9.9%2.0%68.6%33.0%-35.0%31.6%20.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.4%0.5%15.2%7.3%-10.4%6.8%4.6%
Op Inc Chg LTM46.7%0.9%-40.4%157.7%-85.3%52.3%23.8%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg135.4%10.0%-13.0%152.8%96.9%156.8%116.1%
Op Mgn LTM13.2%18.5%9.7%20.4%5.7%18.1%15.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg9.7%18.6%17.9%6.5%19.6%15.7%16.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.7%0.1%-2.5%1.1%-6.0%0.3%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM14.1%20.7%16.2%28.9%25.0%18.9%19.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg8.7%21.5%31.7%24.3%31.2%18.2%22.9%
FCF/Rev LTM13.5%18.4%8.0%23.3%25.0%18.1%18.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg8.0%19.2%23.1%18.2%31.2%17.8%18.7%

Valuation

XYZPYPLGPNAFRMCOINSHOPMedian
NameBlock PayPal Global P.Affirm Coinbase.Shopify  
Mkt Cap52.451.125.725.740.3196.645.7
P/S2.01.52.56.07.213.94.3
P/Op Inc15.58.026.029.5125.976.827.8
P/EBIT18.58.218.027.2-48.276.818.2
P/E113.710.8-27.513.3-57.492.512.1
P/CFO14.57.215.520.928.673.318.2
Total Yield0.9%10.2%-2.6%7.5%-1.8%1.1%1.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.0%1.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg4.6%10.6%8.4%3.0%3.2%1.2%3.9%
D/E0.10.30.90.40.20.00.2
Net D/E-0.10.10.70.3-0.1-0.00.0

Returns

XYZPYPLGPNAFRMCOINSHOPMedian
NameBlock PayPal Global P.Affirm Coinbase.Shopify  
1M Rtn14.1%10.5%16.0%1.5%-18.9%-4.6%6.0%
3M Rtn3.3%4.1%9.2%-3.3%1.8%5.9%3.7%
6M Rtn22.8%30.7%37.8%15.7%-22.9%44.9%26.8%
12M Rtn19.9%-8.0%20.7%6.2%-50.3%-5.1%0.6%
3Y Rtn78.7%8.4%-13.4%238.2%77.9%148.5%78.3%
1M Excs Rtn16.8%13.3%19.7%4.5%-14.6%-3.9%8.9%
3M Excs Rtn11.9%2.7%10.8%0.9%6.8%5.4%6.1%
6M Excs Rtn20.1%28.0%35.0%12.9%-25.7%42.1%24.0%
12M Excs Rtn6.7%-21.5%14.8%-5.3%-64.3%-22.1%-13.4%
3Y Excs Rtn40.8%-62.4%-86.1%261.6%25.1%144.1%32.9%

Comparison Analyses

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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Cash App15,42516,24814,68211,03212,315
Square8,4527,6827,0336,2945,193
Corporate and Other317192201206152
Total24,19424,12121,91617,53217,661


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$87.63 
Market Cap ($ Bil)52.8 
First Trading Date11/19/2015 
Distance from 52W High0.0% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$77.88$71.37
DMA Trenddownup
Distance from DMA12.5%22.8%
 3M1YR
Volatility45.6%48.4%
Downside Capture201.51196.47
Upside Capture201.47176.59
Correlation (S&P 500)37.7%47.4%
XYZ Betas & Captures as of 10/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.961.491.731.501.771.78
Up Beta-3.14-0.750.320.981.601.44
Down Beta0.471.381.001.221.841.82
Up Capture182%172%227%199%244%1146%
Bmk +ve Days12182862130427
Stock +ve Days13202961124399
Down Capture102%191%228%156%147%112%
Bmk -ve Days10253664121325
Stock -ve Days9233565126351

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with XYZ
XYZ18.0%48.4%0.49-
Sector ETF (XLF)15.0%15.0%0.7147.7%
Equity (SPY)13.2%12.9%0.6850.1%
Gold (GLD)1.0%28.8%0.0326.2%
Commodities (DBC)35.9%21.2%1.34-21.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)14.3%14.1%0.7025.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-28.2%43.4%-0.6527.8%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with XYZ
XYZ-19.1%60.1%-0.12-
Sector ETF (XLF)10.0%18.3%0.4054.8%
Equity (SPY)12.5%17.2%0.5563.6%
Gold (GLD)17.3%19.1%0.7311.3%
Commodities (DBC)8.0%19.6%0.295.1%
Real Estate (VNQ)1.8%18.9%-0.0146.2%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)5.5%51.5%0.2938.1%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with XYZ
XYZ23.0%56.9%0.60-
Sector ETF (XLF)13.7%22.1%0.5645.2%
Equity (SPY)15.4%18.0%0.7360.7%
Gold (GLD)11.9%16.5%0.599.5%
Commodities (DBC)7.4%18.1%0.3313.2%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.7%20.7%0.2343.5%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)61.0%66.2%1.0124.3%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity13.8 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 9302026-3.9%
Average Daily Volume4.6 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.0 days
Basic Shares Quantity602.5 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares2.3%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 11/3/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/3/2026   
8/5/2026-6.2%-7.0%-1.0%
5/7/20266.7%2.0%-0.3%
2/26/202616.8%23.6%2.7%
11/6/2025-7.7%-12.2%-13.2%
8/7/2025-4.5%-1.1%-1.3%
5/1/2025-20.4%-14.3%5.6%
2/20/2025-17.7%-22.6%-26.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121211
# Negative121213
Median Positive10.4%11.0%17.1%
Median Negative-5.3%-10.2%-13.2%
Max Positive26.1%25.0%47.8%
Max Negative-20.4%-22.6%-27.4%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/3/2026   
8/5/2026-6.2%-7.0%-1.0%
5/7/20266.7%2.0%-0.3%
2/26/202616.8%23.6%2.7%
11/6/2025-7.7%-12.2%-13.2%
8/7/2025-4.5%-1.1%-1.3%
5/1/2025-20.4%-14.3%5.6%
2/20/2025-17.7%-22.6%-26.4%
11/7/2024-0.9%10.8%26.8%
8/1/20240.8%2.2%10.3%
5/2/2024-1.2%4.1%-8.5%
2/22/202416.1%16.9%18.8%
11/2/202310.7%16.1%47.8%
8/3/2023-13.6%-15.4%-20.9%
5/4/2023-2.0%-5.2%5.1%
2/23/20234.3%5.2%-18.2%
11/3/202211.5%25.0%17.1%
8/4/2022-2.2%-4.1%-26.1%
5/5/20220.7%-20.7%-12.7%
2/24/202226.1%20.2%37.2%
11/4/2021-4.1%-8.5%-27.4%
8/2/202110.2%11.3%10.0%
5/6/20214.2%-12.0%-3.1%
2/23/2021-7.5%-1.7%-16.8%
11/5/202013.0%1.9%21.3%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121211
# Negative121213
Median Positive10.4%11.0%17.1%
Median Negative-5.3%-10.2%-13.2%
Max Positive26.1%25.0%47.8%
Max Negative-20.4%-22.6%-27.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202611/03/202610-Q
06/30/202608/05/202610-Q
03/31/202605/07/202610-Q
12/31/202502/26/202610-K
09/30/202511/06/202510-Q
06/30/202508/07/202510-Q
03/31/202505/01/202510-Q
12/31/202402/24/202510-K
09/30/202411/07/202410-Q
06/30/202408/01/202410-Q
03/31/202405/02/202410-Q
12/31/202302/22/202410-K
09/30/202311/02/202310-Q
06/30/202308/03/202310-Q
03/31/202305/04/202310-Q
12/31/202202/23/202310-K
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202611/03/202610-Q
06/30/202608/05/202610-Q
03/31/202605/07/202610-Q
12/31/202502/26/202610-K
09/30/202511/06/202510-Q
06/30/202508/07/202510-Q
03/31/202505/01/202510-Q
12/31/202402/24/202510-K
09/30/202411/07/202410-Q
06/30/202408/01/202410-Q
03/31/202405/02/202410-Q
12/31/202302/22/202410-K
09/30/202311/02/202310-Q
06/30/202308/03/202310-Q
03/31/202305/04/202310-Q
12/31/202202/23/202310-K
09/30/202211/03/202210-Q
06/30/202208/04/202210-Q
03/31/202205/05/202210-Q
12/31/202102/24/202210-K
09/30/202111/04/202110-Q
06/30/202108/02/202110-Q
03/31/202105/06/202110-Q
12/31/202002/23/202110-K
09/30/202011/05/202010-Q
06/30/202008/05/202010-Q
03/31/202005/06/202010-Q
12/31/201902/26/202010-K

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 11/4/2026

Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 11/3/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q4 2026 Rule of XReported 0.46    
Q4 2026 Gross ProfitReported 3.31 Bil 5.9% Higher NewGuidance: 3.13 Bil for Q3 2026
Q4 2026 Gross Profit YoY GrowthReported 15.0%  -3.0%Lower NewGuidance: 18.0% for Q3 2026
Q4 2026 Adjusted Operating Income Margin (% of gross profit)Reported 30.0%  2.0%Higher NewGuidance: 28.0% for Q3 2026
Q4 2026 Adjusted Operating IncomeReported 1.00 Bil 14.9% Higher NewGuidance: 875.00 Mil for Q3 2026
Q4 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPSReported 1.15 12.7% Higher NewGuidance: 1.02 for Q3 2026
Q4 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS YoY GrowthReported 77.0%  -12.0%Lower NewGuidance: 89.0% for Q3 2026
2026 Rule of XReported 0.5    
2026 Gross ProfitReported 12.63 Bil 0.9% RaisedGuidance: 12.51 Bil for 2026
2026 Gross Profit YoY GrowthReported 22.0%  1.0%RaisedGuidance: 21.0% for 2026
2026 Adjusted Operating Income Margin (% of gross profit)Reported 28.0%  0.0%AffirmedGuidance: 28.0% for 2026
2026 Adjusted Operating IncomeReported 3.52 Bil 1.4% RaisedGuidance: 3.47 Bil for 2026
2026 Adjusted Operating Income YoY GrowthReported 69.0%    
2026 Adjusted Diluted EPSReported 4.15 3.2% RaisedGuidance: 4.02 for 2026
2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS YoY GrowthReported 75.0%  5.0%RaisedGuidance: 70.0% for 2026
2027 Gross ProfitReported 14.52 Bil 16.1% Higher NewGuidance: 12.51 Bil for 2026
2027 Gross Profit YoY GrowthReported 15.0%  -6.0%Lower NewGuidance: 21.0% for 2026
2027 Adjusted Operating Income Margin (%) of gross profitReported 32.0%  4.0%Higher NewGuidance: 28.0% for 2026
2027 Adjusted Operating IncomeReported 4.58 Bil 31.8% Higher NewGuidance: 3.47 Bil for 2026
2027 Adjusted Operating Income YoY GrowthReported 30.0%    


Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/5/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q3 2026 Gross ProfitReported 3.13 Bil 3.0% Higher NewActual: 3.04 Bil for Q2 2026
Q3 2026 Gross Profit GrowthReported 18.0%  -2.0%Lower NewActual: 20.0% for Q2 2026
Q3 2026 Adjusted Operating IncomeReported 875.00 Mil 18.2% Higher NewActual: 740.00 Mil for Q2 2026
Q3 2026 Adjusted Operating MarginReported 28.0%  4.0%Higher NewActual: 24.0% for Q2 2026
Q3 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPSReported 1.02 18.6% Higher NewActual: 0.86 for Q2 2026
Q3 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS GrowthReported 89.0%  50.0%Higher NewActual: 39.0% for Q2 2026
2026 Gross ProfitReported 12.51 Bil 1.5% RaisedGuidance: 12.33 Bil for 2026
2026 Gross Profit GrowthReported 21.0%  2.0%RaisedGuidance: 19.0% for 2026
2026 Adjusted Operating IncomeReported 3.47 Bil 3.9% RaisedGuidance: 3.34 Bil for 2026
2026 Adjusted Operating MarginReported 28.0%  1.0%RaisedGuidance: 27.0% for 2026
2026 Adjusted Diluted EPSReported 4.02 4.4% RaisedGuidance: 3.85 for 2026
2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS GrowthReported 70.0%  8.0%RaisedGuidance: 62.0% for 2026

Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q2 2026 Gross ProfitReported 3.04 Bil    
Q2 2026 Gross Profit GrowthReported 20.0%    
Q2 2026 Adjusted Operating IncomeReported 740.00 Mil    
Q2 2026 Adjusted Operating Income MarginReported 24.0%    
Q2 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPSReported 0.86    
Q2 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS GrowthReported 39.0%    
2026 Gross ProfitReported 12.33 Bil 1.1% RaisedGuidance: 12.20 Bil for 2026
2026 Gross Profit GrowthReported 19.0%  1.0%RaisedGuidance: 18.0% for 2026
2026 Adjusted Operating IncomeReported 3.34 Bil 4.4% RaisedGuidance: 3.20 Bil for 2026
2026 Adjusted Operating Income MarginReported 27.0%    
2026 Adjusted Diluted EPSReported 3.85 5.2% RaisedGuidance: 3.66 for 2026
2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS GrowthReported 62.0%    

Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/26/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q1 2026 Gross ProfitReported 2.80 Bil 1.6% Higher NewActual: 2.75 Bil for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 Gross Profit GrowthReported 22.0%  3.0%Higher NewActual: 19.0% for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 Adjusted Operating IncomeReported 600.00 Mil 7.1% Higher NewActual: 560.00 Mil for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPSReported 0.67    
2026 Gross ProfitReported 12.20 Bil 19.1% Higher NewActual: 10.24 Bil for 2025
2026 Gross Profit GrowthReported 18.0%  3.0%Higher NewActual: 15.0% for 2025
2026 Adjusted Operating IncomeReported 3.20 Bil 55.6% Higher NewActual: 2.06 Bil for 2025
2026 Adjusted Diluted EPSReported 3.66    

Insider Activity

Updated 10/29/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell1029202674.446,000446,64090,271,304Form
2Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell1027202674.796,000448,74091,144,479Form
3Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell1027202675.766,000454,56092,781,151Form
4Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell1027202677.846,000467,04095,795,508Form
5Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell1022202678.066,000468,36096,534,616Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell1029202674.446,000446,64090,271,304Form
2Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell1027202674.796,000448,74091,144,479Form
3Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell1027202675.766,000454,56092,781,151Form
4Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell1027202677.846,000467,04095,795,508Form
5Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell1022202678.066,000468,36096,534,616Form
6Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell1022202679.076,000474,42098,258,075Form
7Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell1022202677.256,000463,50096,459,912Form
8Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell1019202678.586,000471,48098,592,126Form
9Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell1019202680.436,000482,580101,395,849Form
10Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell1019202676.996,000461,94097,521,077Form
11Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell1014202675.706,000454,20096,341,270Form
12Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell1014202676.806,000460,80098,202,010Form
13Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell1014202676.976,000461,82098,881,204Form
14Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell1009202675.756,000454,50097,768,404Form
15Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell1009202675.176,000451,02097,470,834Form
16Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell1009202675.356,000452,10098,156,335Form
17Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell1006202676.686,000460,080100,348,969Form
18Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell1006202674.246,000445,44097,601,249Form
19Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell1006202675.616,000453,66099,856,010Form
20Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell1001202673.676,000442,02097,735,926Form
21Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell1001202674.336,000445,98099,057,510Form
22Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell1001202673.296,000439,74098,111,271Form
23Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell928202675.206,000451,200101,119,334Form
24Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell928202676.906,000461,400103,866,677Form
25Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell928202674.586,000447,480101,180,598Form
26Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell923202676.676,000460,020104,476,062Form
27Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell923202679.596,000477,540108,932,604Form
28Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell923202677.546,000465,240106,592,067Form
29Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell918202676.556,000459,300105,690,442Form
30Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell918202677.976,000467,820108,118,816Form
31Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell918202678.366,000470,160109,129,778Form
32Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell915202679.316,000475,860110,928,676Form
33Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell915202678.966,000473,760110,912,901Form
34Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell915202679.966,000479,760112,797,333Form
35Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell910202678.396,000470,340111,052,918Form
36Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell910202679.276,000475,620112,775,209Form
37Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell910202682.186,000493,080117,408,265Form
38Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell904202682.516,000495,060118,374,787Form
39Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell904202683.576,000501,420120,396,959Form
40Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell904202677.306,000463,800111,827,746Form
41Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell901202680.046,000480,240116,271,867Form
42Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell901202682.586,000495,480120,457,134Form
43Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell901202685.126,000510,720124,672,881Form
44Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell827202684.006,000504,000123,536,448Form
45Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell827202682.006,000492,000121,087,104Form
46Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell827202681.816,000490,860121,297,396Form
47Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell824202681.486,000488,880121,296,995Form
48Jennings, Owen BrittonBusiness LeadDirectSell824202681.481,317107,30937,491,229Form
49Grassadonia, BrianEcosystem LeadDirectSell824202682.428,173673,63542,363,348Form
50Ahuja, AmritaCFO & COODirectSell824202682.439,511783,97034,888,509Form
51Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell824202680.046,000480,240119,633,547Form
52Jennings, Owen BrittonBusiness LeadDirectSell824202680.0458446,74336,934,058Form
53Ahuja, AmritaCFO & COODirectSell824202680.043,101248,20434,639,151Form
54Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell824202680.876,000485,220121,359,345Form
55Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell819202679.556,000477,300119,855,758Form
56Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell819202679.176,000475,020119,758,242Form
57Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell819202681.636,000489,780123,969,195Form
58Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell814202682.876,000497,220126,349,569Form
59Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell814202679.166,000474,960121,167,996Form
60Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell814202678.626,000471,720120,813,153Form
61Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell811202678.826,000472,920121,593,407Form
62Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell811202678.476,000470,820121,524,292Form
63Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell811202678.906,000473,400122,663,621Form
64Ahuja, AmritaCFO & COODirectSell807202685.858,971770,16038,999,509Form
65Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell806202683.076,000498,420129,645,023Form
66Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell806202685.8541,0003,519,850134,498,791Form
67Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell806202682.316,000493,860132,327,482Form
68Grassadonia, BrianEcosystem LeadDirectSell805202681.6425,9082,115,11043,411,352Form
69Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell803202681.526,000489,120131,546,541Form
70Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell803202682.276,000493,620133,250,415Form
71Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell803202681.176,000487,020131,955,796Form
72Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell729202682.226,000493,320134,156,072Form
73Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell729202681.706,000490,200133,797,802Form
74Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell729202678.886,000473,280129,652,847Form
75Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell724202677.036,000462,180127,074,234Form
76Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell724202677.326,000463,920128,016,559Form
77Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell724202679.106,000474,600131,438,255Form
78Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell721202679.316,000475,860132,263,066Form
79Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell721202678.906,000473,400132,052,721Form
80Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell721202679.136,000474,780132,912,445Form
81Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell716202682.116,000492,660138,410,528Form
82Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell716202683.52141,00011,776,380141,289,165Form
83Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell716202678.586,000471,480144,011,366Form
84Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell713202678.356,000470,100144,059,951Form
85Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell713202678.916,000473,460145,563,068Form
86Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell713202676.146,000456,840140,910,166Form
87Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell708202676.666,000459,960142,332,476Form
88Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell708202679.496,000476,940148,063,797Form
89Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell708202678.776,000472,620147,195,293Form
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91Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell702202679.8336,0002,873,820149,651,941Form
92Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell702202676.406,000458,400145,975,341Form
93Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell702202678.806,000472,800151,033,754Form
94Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell629202678.936,000473,580151,756,501Form
95Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell629202674.806,000448,800144,264,666Form
96Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell629202675.706,000454,200146,454,670Form
97Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell624202674.016,000444,060143,629,135Form
98Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell624202672.296,000433,740140,724,919Form
99Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell624202674.286,000445,680145,044,476Form
100Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell618202673.996,000443,940144,922,141Form
101Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell618202674.106,000444,600145,582,195Form
102Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell618202674.956,000449,700147,701,866Form
103Ahuja, AmritaCFO & COODirectSell618202675.008,093606,97534,743,450Form
104Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell615202672.266,000433,560142,568,257Form
105Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell615202669.786,000418,680138,093,922Form
106Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell611202666.076,000396,420131,148,289Form
107Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell611202666.646,000399,840132,679,574Form
108Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell611202668.826,000412,920137,432,852Form
109Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell608202668.226,000409,320136,643,978Form
110Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell608202670.196,000421,140141,011,008Form
111Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell608202670.846,000425,040142,741,892Form
112Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell603202672.826,000436,920147,168,492Form
113Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell603202676.356,000458,100154,760,686Form
114Eisen, Anthony Mathew DirectSell603202676.81135,75010,426,774156,151,208Form
115Ahuja, AmritaCFO & COODirectSell603202676.6211,076848,62436,113,198Form
116Jennings, Owen BrittonBusiness LeadDirectSell527202668.541,31690,19932,876,033Form
117Jennings, Owen BrittonBusiness LeadDirectSell521202669.8358340,71133,586,694Form
118Jennings, Owen BrittonBusiness LeadDirectSell521202671.00443,12435,444,052Form
119Esperanza, ChrystyChief Legal OfficerDirectSell422202675.003,000225,00020,112,675Form
120Ahuja, AmritaCFO & COODirectSell422202675.0030,9192,318,92537,561,200Form
121Jennings, Owen BrittonBusiness LeadDirectSell408202660.251338,01313,862,983Form
122Grassadonia, BrianEcosystem LeadDirectSell408202660.251,769106,58230,170,971Form
123Jennings, Owen BrittonBusiness LeadDirectSell305202663.413,555225,42314,664,323Form
124Grassadonia, BrianEcosystem LeadDirectSell224202650.0010,349517,45025,189,200Form
125Grassadonia, BrianEcosystem LeadDirectSell106202668.521,983135,87535,516,040Form
126Grassadonia, BrianEcosystem LeadDirectSell106202663.981,03866,41133,289,690Form
127Jennings, Owen BrittonBusiness LeadDirectSell106202663.9882252,59215,529,098Form
128Esperanza, ChrystyChief Legal OfficerDirectSell106202663.9833121,1777,861,031Form
129Dale, AjmereChief Accounting OfficerDirectSell106202665.091,17376,3546,405,886Form
130Ahuja, AmritaCFO & COODirectSell106202663.981,10170,44217,393,859Form
131Grassadonia, BrianEcosystem LeadDirectSell1125202561.968,085500,95232,303,338Form
132Weber, ArnaudEngineering LeadDirectSell1125202561.407,095435,63315,910,950Form
133Jennings, Owen BrittonBusiness LeadDirectSell1125202561.4010,417639,60414,953,356Form
134Grassadonia, BrianEcosystem LeadDirectSell1125202561.406,460396,64432,507,432Form
135Esperanza, ChrystyChief Legal OfficerDirectSell1125202561.403,608221,5317,564,357Form
136Dale, AjmereChief Accounting OfficerDirectSell1125202561.402,724167,2546,114,519Form
137Ahuja, AmritaCFO & COODirectSell1125202561.409,959611,48316,760,051Form
138Grassadonia, BrianEcosystem LeadDirectSell1010202580.0035,1452,811,60042,871,680Form
139Dale, AjmereChief Accounting OfficerDirectSell1010202580.0075060,0008,184,640Form
140Grassadonia, BrianEcosystem LeadDirectSell1006202576.691,679128,76343,793,134Form
141Ahuja, AmritaCFO & COODirectSell1006202576.691,27697,85621,697,442Form
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145Ahuja, AmritaCFO & COODirectSell1006202574.771,351101,01421,249,634Form
146Dale, AjmereChief Accounting OfficerDirectSell1003202574.7752038,8807,705,647Form
147Dale, AjmereChief Accounting OfficerDirectSell1003202572.2275054,1657,480,403Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Nov 5, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Opti Capital Management, LP$82.2 Mil5.9%36TRIM -36.4%13F
Dragoneer Investment Group, LLC $175.6 Mil5.9%17TRIM -41.4%13F
Woodson Capital Management, LP$34.9 Mil5.6%28TRIM -16.1%13F
PointState Capital LP$239.4 Mil5.6%44ADD +93.4%13F
Ribbit Management Company, LLC$86.1 Mil5.1%16ADD +23.2%13F
Hyperion Asset Management Ltd$151.1 Mil4.8%18TRIM -5.4%13F
a16z Capital Management, L.L.C.$61.2 Mil4.7%16Hold13F
Ravenswood Partners LP$10.2 Mil3.8%35Hold13F
Azora Capital LP$41.8 Mil2.8%45New13F
Evergreen Quality Fund GP, Ltd.$112.6 Mil2.6%40Hold13F
Glenview Capital Management, LLC$82.1 Mil2.2%41ADD +60.2%13F
Gladstone Capital Management LLP$11.6 Mil1.2%32TRIM -62.6%13F
SC US (TTGP), LTD.$59.6 Mil0.6%36Hold13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Azora Capital LP$41.8 Mil2.8%45New13F
PointState Capital LP$239.4 Mil5.6%44ADD +93.4%13F
Glenview Capital Management, LLC$82.1 Mil2.2%41ADD +60.2%13F
Ribbit Management Company, LLC$86.1 Mil5.1%16ADD +23.2%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQAs OfFiling
Fernbridge Capital Management LP$28.4 Mil1.4%20ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Nishkama Capital, LLC$12.2 Mil1.7%49ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Philadelphia Financial Management of San Francisco, LLC$12.0 Mil2.5%46ExitedDec 31, 202513F
ADAPT Investment Managers SA$6.3 Mil1.3%28ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Gladstone Capital Management LLP$11.6 Mil1.2%32TRIM -62.6%Mar 31, 202613F
Dragoneer Investment Group, LLC $175.6 Mil5.9%17TRIM -41.4%Mar 31, 202613F
Opti Capital Management, LP$82.2 Mil5.9%36TRIM -36.4%Mar 31, 202613F
Woodson Capital Management, LP$34.9 Mil5.6%28TRIM -16.1%Mar 31, 202613F
Hyperion Asset Management Ltd$151.1 Mil4.8%18TRIM -5.4%Mar 31, 202613F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
PointState Capital LP$239.4 Mil5.6%44ADD +93.4%13F
Dragoneer Investment Group, LLC $175.6 Mil5.9%17TRIM -41.4%13F
Hyperion Asset Management Ltd$151.1 Mil4.8%18TRIM -5.4%13F
Evergreen Quality Fund GP, Ltd.$112.6 Mil2.6%40Hold13F
Ribbit Management Company, LLC$86.1 Mil5.1%16ADD +23.2%13F
Opti Capital Management, LP$82.2 Mil5.9%36TRIM -36.4%13F
Glenview Capital Management, LLC$82.1 Mil2.2%41ADD +60.2%13F
a16z Capital Management, L.L.C.$61.2 Mil4.7%16Hold13F
SC US (TTGP), LTD.$59.6 Mil0.6%36Hold13F
Azora Capital LP$41.8 Mil2.8%45New13F
Woodson Capital Management, LP$34.9 Mil5.6%28TRIM -16.1%13F
Gladstone Capital Management LLP$11.6 Mil1.2%32TRIM -62.6%13F
Ravenswood Partners LP$10.2 Mil3.8%35Hold13F

XYZ Trade Sentinel


Stock Conviction

Constructive

CONVICTION RATIONALE

Conviction is constructive based on management's excellent execution, including a major restructuring and consistently beating guidance. The company is navigating a guided growth slowdown by delivering a significant, planned acceleration in profitability, with full-year adjusted EPS guided to grow 70%. The primary uncertainty is the durability of the new, more profitable growth model.

STOCK ARCHETYPE
Diversified Transactional & Services

(Number of Active Users/Sellers) x (Volume per User/Seller) x (Monetization Rate) Scaling higher-margin financial services (lending, BNPL) and software subscriptions on top of the core payments infrastructure, and driving operating leverage through AI-led efficiencies.

Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the Trefis High Quality Portfolio.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Can the AI pivot drive a more profitable growth era?

Evidence suggests a successful transition is underway, trading moderating growth for significant margin expansion and earnings power.

Mechanism: A recent 40% workforce reduction and AI-driven efficiencies are fueling profitability. Full-year 2026 guidance was raised to 21% gross profit growth and 70% adjusted diluted EPS growth, funded by a $5.1 billion net cash position.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Full-year 2026 adjusted EPS growth is guided to 70%.
  • Q2 2026 adjusted operating income margin reached an all-time high of 27%.
  • Cash App gross profit grew 31% year-over-year in Q2 2026.
  • The company maintains a net cash position of $5.1 billion.
  • Share count has been reduced by 1.5% over the last three years.
PRIMARY RISK
Execution risk and growth deceleration

A planned growth slowdown could worsen, and the recent major restructuring could disrupt operations, undermining the transition to a new, AI-centric model.

Mechanism: Failure to meet the lowered Q3 gross profit growth guidance of 18% would confirm this risk.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Gross profit growth is guided to slow from 25% in Q2 to 18% in Q3.
  • The company expects to exit 2026 with a mid-teens gross profit growth rate.
  • Cash App monthly active user growth slowed to 3% in June 2026.
  • A workforce reduction of over 40% was completed at the end of Q2 2026.
  • Accounts receivable grew 28.1% in Q2, outpacing 9.3% revenue growth.
Key KPI Watchlist
KPI Status Rationale
Gross Profit Growth25% year-over-year growth in Q2 2026 - StableManagement described the second quarter performance as a "strong second quarter" with "broad-based the strength." The company's growth accelerated significantly through 2025, and has remained at a high, relatively stable level of 27% during the first quarter.
Cash App Monthly Transacting Actives Growth3% year-over-year growth in June 2026 - StableManagement noted in a prior quarter that they had reignited Cash App's network growth in the second half of 2025. The growth rate appears to have stabilized in the low single digits, which is consistent with the company's full-year 2026 expectation for "low single-digit actives growth."
Square Gross Payment Volume (GPV)$250 billion (Year ended December 31, 2025)The total dollar amount of all card and bank payments processed by sellers using Square, indicating the scale of its merchant business.
Cash App Inflows$316 billion (2025)The total funds entering the Cash App ecosystem, reflecting customer engagement and trust in the platform as a primary financial account.
Core Investment Debate

Profitable pivot or structural slowdown?

BULL VIEW

Bulls see a disciplined pivot, where a planned growth moderation funds a massive step-up in profitability, evidenced by raised full-year guidance for 70% adjusted EPS growth.

CORE TENSION

Can record profitability and strong execution offset the guided growth deceleration that prompted a -7.0% stock reaction?


PREVAILING SENTIMENT
CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

The latest evidence favors the bulls. Management has consistently beaten guidance and successfully executed its restructuring, lending credibility to its forward plan.

BEAR VIEW

Bears see a structural slowdown masked by restructuring, focusing on the gross profit growth deceleration from 25% in Q2 to a guided mid-teens rate by year-end.

Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
Timeline Event & Metric To Watch
11/2/2026
Competitive pressure from peers
Watch: Peer commentary on market share gains, pricing environment, and growth in segments like POS software, e-commerce, and BNPL.
11/2/2026
Shopify Earnings Report
Watch: Peer Shopify (SHOP) to report earnings.
11/2/2026
Global Payments Earnings
Watch: Peer Global Payments (GPN) to report earnings.
11/4/2026
Negative reaction to Q3 results
Watch: Q3 gross profit growth rate versus decelerating guidance and commentary on the drivers of the slowdown.
11/4/2026
Operational disruption from restructuring
Watch: Commentary on operational stability, system outages, customer support issues, or control deficiencies in the first full post-restructuring quarter.
11/4/2026
Q3 Earnings Report
Watch: Company to report Q3 2026 earnings and provide updated guidance.
11/4/2026
Affirm Earnings Report
Watch: Peer Affirm (AFRM) to report earnings.
Key Events in Last 6 Months
Date Event Stock Impact
2026-08-05
Q2 results reported with mixed guidance
Details: The company reported strong Q2 results and raised full-year guidance, but provided 'Lower New' guidance for Q3 Gross Profit Growth. The stock reacted negatively, falling -7.0% over two days.
-6.6%
$84.64 -> $79.02
2026-07-30
Analyst consensus price target reported
Details: A news report stated the company received an average price target of $89.84 from thirty-seven covering brokerages, with an average rating of 'Moderate Buy'.
-1.1%
$82.18 -> $81.24
2026-06-04
Cash App Tags launched
Details: The company launched Cash App Tags, a new NFC-enabled physical payment accessory, starting with the 'Cash App Wand' for Cash App Card holders.
-2.4%
$69.80 -> $68.15
2026-05-07
Strong Q1 results and guidance raise
Details: The company reported strong Q1 2026 results, exceeding guidance and raising its full-year outlook. The stock reacted positively, with a two-day return of 6.0%.
+5.7%
$70.83 -> $74.85
2026-04-06
GOLFTEC selects Square platform
Details: The company announced that GOLFTEC, a large provider of golf lessons, selected Square to power its commerce infrastructure across more than 200 U.S. locations.
+0.3%
$59.78 -> $59.97
2026-03-23
Restaurant segment momentum noted
Details: A press report highlighted that GPV from the company's food and beverage sellers grew 16% year-over-year in Q4 of 2025.
+0.9%
$59.37 -> $59.89
2026-02-26
Major workforce reduction announced
Details: Management announced a plan to reduce the company's workforce from over 10,000 people to just under 6,000.
+22.6%
$51.94 -> $63.70
Risk Management
Position Sizing

4% - 6%

NORMAL POSITION

Sizing is volatility-based: XYZ trades at roughly 44% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 13% for the S&P 500 (3.4x the market), around the 38th percentile of its own trailing year. A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.

Diversification Alternatives
PYPL - a business partner
Established Incumbent

a business partner offers greater scale with 1.4 times Block's revenue and a higher trailing-twelve-month operating margin of 18.4%.

Core Thesis: An investment in a mature, profitable leader in digital payments that is also diversifying into financial services.
GPN - Global Payments
Enterprise Focus

Global Payments has a stronger position with larger, scaling enterprises and reports a significantly higher gross margin of 63.9%.

Core Thesis: An investment in a merchant acquirer with deep penetration in specific verticals and a focus on larger business clients.
How Is The Market Pricing XYZ?

An 'intelligence company' operating two increasingly connected financial ecosystems, leveraging AI to accelerate product development and drive operating efficiency.

Block is evolving from a payments processor into a diversified fintech platform with two powerful ecosystems: Square for sellers and Cash App for consumers. Growth is driven by adding new financial services like lending and banking to these platforms and creating synergies between them, such as the 'Neighborhoods' program. The company is making a strategic pivot to place AI at its core, aiming to automate operations, increase product velocity, and deliver proactive intelligence to its customers.

What will confirm the thesis

Sustained acceleration in Square's GPV growth, continued high double-digit gross profit growth in Cash App, successful scaling of the 'Neighborhoods' program, and evidence of margin expansion from AI-driven efficiencies.

What will damage the thesis

A slowdown in Cash App's user growth or engagement, a significant increase in credit losses from its lending products, or a failure to maintain accelerated product development velocity.

Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis

Short-term volatility in Bitcoin price, which can distort Cash App's reported revenue but is less indicative of underlying ecosystem health. Peer M&A speculation.

Repricing Catalyst

The company's ability to execute on its AI-centric strategy, demonstrated by accelerating growth, strong profitability, and raising full-year guidance after a period of reorganization.

What XYZ Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on the twelve months through fiscal Q3 2026
Square
$9.4B TTM (37% of Total)
What It Is

An ecosystem of over 30 commerce and financial products sold to businesses of all sizes, from sole proprietors to multi-location enterprises. Offerings include payment acceptance, point-of-sale software, hardware (readers, registers), and financial services like loans and savings accounts.

Who Pays & How

Businesses ('sellers') pay for Square's integrated suite of tools to start, run, and grow their operations. They choose Square for its cohesive, self-serve platform that avoids the complexity of using multiple vendors for payments, software, and banking.

Primarily transaction-based fees on payment volume (GPV), recurring revenue from tiered software subscriptions, and one-time hardware sales.
Competition
Competitors include business software providers, payment terminal vendors, merchant acquirers, and banks. PayPal and Global Payments are named peers.
Some competitors have greater financial resources, larger customer bases, or long-standing exclusive relationships with sellers.
A cohesive and extensive ecosystem of more than 30 integrated products, transparent pricing, and a strong brand, which simplifies operations for sellers.
Cash App
$15.9B TTM (62% of Total)
What It Is

An ecosystem of financial products and services for consumers, including peer-to-peer payments, the 'Cash App Card' debit card, stock and Bitcoin investing, 'Cash App Borrow' short-term loans, and Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) products.

Who Pays & How

Consumers pay fees on specific services like instant deposits to a bank account, using a credit card for peer-to-peer payments, and borrowing money. They use the app to store, send, spend, invest, and borrow money in a single, accessible platform.

Primarily transaction fees on specific services. The core peer-to-peer service is largely free and serves as a customer acquisition tool. Interchange fees are earned on 'Cash App Card' spending.
Competition
Competitors include money transfer apps, debit card offerings, brokerage firms, banks, crypto exchanges, and BNPL providers. Named peers include PayPal and Affirm.
Established banks and other financial technology companies may have larger customer bases or a different range of offerings.
A differentiated lifestyle brand, the breadth of its network, the range of products integrated into a single ecosystem, and a simple, high-quality customer experience.
XYZ Evolution: Price Return by Era
Started in 2009 · Founding and Square Ecosystem Buildout
The company began with the Square ecosystem to enable small businesses, who were previously underserved, to accept card payments. It then expanded this into a comprehensive commerce platform with over 30 distinct products.
· Cash App Ecosystem Growth
Block developed Cash App from a single peer-to-peer payment function into a broad ecosystem of consumer financial services, including a debit card, investing, lending, and BNPL, aiming to be a primary financial account for its users.
2026 · Integration and AI Transformation
+17%
The company is now focused on connecting its two ecosystems through initiatives like 'Neighborhoods' and fundamentally reorganizing its operations around artificial intelligence to increase product velocity and operating efficiency, framing itself as an 'intelligence company'.
Market Appears To Be Cautiously Supportive
Price structure is strongly bullish. The regime, trend, and proximity to highs all point towards intact institutional trend. Relative to SPY: Decisively outperforming and improving. Potential evidence of active institutional rotation. Volume and momentum show mild positive lean. The accumulation signals present but not yet dominant. Earnings history is mildly cautionary. The reaction or drift are negative, and the market is beginning to push back on the thesis.
① Structure
+4
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
+1
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
-1
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
4 / 12
1 Price Structure & Trend Uptrend Cooling · - ▾
2 Momentum Mixed ▾
3 Relative Strength vs. SPY Strong Outperformance ▾
4 Institutional Footprint & Volume Neutral / Mixed ▾
5 Volatility Normal ▾
6 Key Price Levels Range · Vol Rising ▾
7 Earnings Reaction History Inconsistent ▾
8 How the Verdict Is Derived Three Pillars ▾
Core Cache Last Updated: 11/4/2026