Goldman Sachs (GS)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $800.88 | Market Cap: $245.9 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Investment Banking & Brokerage
Goldman Sachs (GS)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $800.88Market Cap: $245.9 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Investment Banking & Brokerage
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.1% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 84% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.0% |
| Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 16% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -77%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -81% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, Sustainable Finance, Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Show more. | Key risksGS key risks include [1] regulatory scrutiny and reputational damage from specific past issues such as the 1MDB affair and inaccurate equity order reporting, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.1% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% |
| Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 16% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, Sustainable Finance, Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Show more. |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 84% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.0% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -77%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -81% |
| Key risksGS key risks include [1] regulatory scrutiny and reputational damage from specific past issues such as the 1MDB affair and inaccurate equity order reporting, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Mixed Q4 2025 Financial Results Led to Volatility.
Goldman Sachs reported robust Q4 2025 diluted earnings per common share (EPS) of $14.01 on January 15, 2026, significantly surpassing analysts' forecast of $11.62 by 20.57%. However, this positive was tempered by lower-than-expected revenue of $13.45 billion against a forecast of $14.49 billion, representing a 7.18% revenue miss. Additionally, the company experienced a substantial 134.8% year-over-year plunge in operating cash flow, reaching -$16.3 billion. While the earnings beat initially pushed the stock to an all-time high of $970.75 on January 15, 2026, the mixed results and cash flow concerns contributed to subsequent downward pressure, bringing the stock back to similar levels by late March.
2. Significant Insider Selling Activity Signaled Caution.
Several Goldman Sachs insiders executed large share sales during the period, exceeding the $5 million threshold and potentially signaling caution to the market. Notably, Lead Independent Director David Viniar netted approximately $66 million from selling shares at an average price of $965 on January 21, 2026. Other substantial sales included Executive Vice President John F.W. Rogers selling over $15.2 million worth of shares on February 13, 2026, and Chief Financial Officer Denis P. Coleman selling nearly $11 million worth of shares on February 11, 2026. These significant divestitures by key executives likely weighed on investor sentiment, contributing to the stock's inability to sustain upward momentum.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -1.8% change in GS stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -5.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 817.66 | 802.89 | -1.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 58,698 | 58,283 | -0.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 28.4% | 29.5% | 3.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.2 | 14.4 | -5.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 310 | 307 | 0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -1.8% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GS | -1.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.3% | 64.4% |
| Sector (XLF) | -10.0% | 70.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 8.8% change in GS stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 6.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 737.69 | 802.89 | 8.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 56,213 | 58,283 | 3.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.7% | 29.5% | 6.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.9 | 14.4 | -3.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 314 | 307 | 2.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 8.8% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GS | 8.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | 61.3% |
| Sector (XLF) | -10.8% | 69.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 31.7% change in GS stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 10.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 609.66 | 802.89 | 31.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 53,512 | 58,283 | 8.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 26.7% | 29.5% | 10.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.8 | 14.4 | 4.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 322 | 307 | 5.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 31.7% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GS | 31.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | 79.5% |
| Sector (XLF) | -7.1% | 82.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 147.5% change in GS stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 42.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 324.42 | 802.89 | 147.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 47,365 | 58,283 | 23.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 23.8% | 29.5% | 24.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.1 | 14.4 | 42.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 349 | 307 | 13.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 147.5% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GS | 147.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 69.4% | 69.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | 40.5% | 80.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GS Return | 48% | -8% | 16% | 52% | 57% | -6% | 253% |
| Peers Return | 31% | -18% | 17% | 38% | 37% | -8% | 119% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -5% | 72% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GS Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 42% | 52% | 68% | 68% | 20% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GS Max Drawdown | 0% | -26% | -14% | -2% | -19% | -11% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -3% | -32% | -14% | -5% | -18% | -12% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -5% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MS, JPM, BAC, C, BLK. See GS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 676 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -46.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 85.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 273 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -42.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 744 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -79.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 376.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 3,008 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to MS, JPM, BAC, C, BLK
In The Past
Goldman Sachs's stock fell -34.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/2/2021. A -34.0% loss requires a 51.5% gain to breakeven.
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About Goldman Sachs (GS)
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1. Like J.P. Morgan Chase, but with a primary focus on investment banking, corporate advisory, and institutional client services.
2. The Morgan Stanley for global corporations and ultra-high-net-worth individuals, specializing in complex financial deals and asset management.
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```html- Financial Advisory Services: Provides strategic advice for mergers, acquisitions, divestitures, and corporate restructurings.
- Underwriting Services: Offers equity underwriting for various stock types and debt underwriting for diverse debt instruments.
- Lending & Financing: Provides middle-market lending, acquisition financing, relationship lending, and unsecured consumer loans.
- Transaction Banking Services: Offers services to manage and process financial transactions for corporations.
- Client Execution & Trading: Engages in client execution activities for cash and derivative instruments across credit, interest rates, equities, currencies, commodities, and mortgages.
- Equity Intermediation: Provides services related to facilitating equity market transactions and financing.
- Clearing, Settlement, & Custody: Offers post-trade services for securities transactions.
- Asset Management: Manages assets across a broad range of investment classes for clients.
- Investment Advisory Solutions: Provides customized investment advice and solutions.
- Wealth Management & Private Banking: Offers financial planning, investment management, and banking services for affluent individuals.
- Deposit Products: Accepts saving and time deposits from clients.
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Goldman Sachs (GS) primarily serves other companies and governmental entities.
Its major customers are:
- Corporations
- Financial Institutions
- Governments
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The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) has a distinguished management team.David M. Solomon
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
David M. Solomon has served as Chief Executive Officer of Goldman Sachs since October 2018 and Chairman since January 2019. Prior to becoming CEO, he was President and Chief Operating Officer from January 2017 to September 2018. Solomon also co-headed the investment banking division from July 2006 to December 2016 and was global head of the Financing Group earlier in his career. He joined Goldman Sachs as a partner in 1999. Before joining Goldman Sachs, Solomon worked at Irving Trust, Drexel Burnham, and Bear Stearns, where he led the junk bonds division and was part of the management committee. He is also Chairman of the Board of Trustees of Hamilton College and serves on the board of The Robin Hood Foundation.
Denis P. Coleman III
Chief Financial Officer
Denis P. Coleman III became Chief Financial Officer of Goldman Sachs, effective January 1, 2022. He has spent his entire professional career at Goldman Sachs, having joined as an analyst in the Bank Loan Group in 1996. Coleman held various roles across the firm, including co-head of the Global Financing Group in the Investment Banking Division from 2018 to September 2021. He was named managing director in 2005 and partner in 2008. Coleman also serves on the Management Committee, Firmwide Enterprise Risk Committee, Firmwide Asset Liability Committee, Firmwide Investment Policy Committee, and Firmwide Risk Council. He is also on the Board of Directors of Covenant House International.
John E. Waldron
President and Chief Operating Officer
John E. Waldron is the President and Chief Operating Officer of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. and a member of its Board of Directors. He is also a member of the Goldman Sachs Management Committee. Waldron joined Goldman Sachs in 2000 and has held several key leadership positions, including co-head of the Investment Banking Division from 2014 to 2018. He also served as Global Head of Investment Banking Services/Client Coverage for IBD and founded the IBS Leadership Group in 2010. Earlier in his career, he was Global Co-Head of the Financial Sponsors Group and Co-Head of Leveraged Finance. Waldron is also involved with several organizations, including the Executive Committee of the Board of Directors of Lincoln Center for the Performing Arts and the Council on Foreign Relations.
John F.W. Rogers
Executive Vice President
John F.W. Rogers serves as Executive Vice President of Goldman Sachs and is the Secretary to the Board. His background and specific responsibilities in this role are extensive, often involving high-level strategic and operational oversight within the firm.
Kathryn Ruemmler
Chief Legal Officer and General Counsel
Kathryn Ruemmler is the Chief Legal Officer and General Counsel for Goldman Sachs. In this role, she is responsible for the firm's global legal strategy and affairs.
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Here are the key risks to Goldman Sachs' business:
- Market Volatility and Economic Downturns: Goldman Sachs' core operations, including investment banking, global markets, and asset management, are highly susceptible to fluctuations in financial markets and broader economic conditions. A bear market, stock market corrections, elevated oil prices impacting economic growth, or a general weakening macroeconomic environment can significantly reduce transaction volumes, depress asset valuations, and lead to trading losses. The company's profitability is directly tied to a robust and stable economic environment, and any severe downturn could materially impact its revenue and earnings.
- Regulatory and Compliance Risk: Operating in a heavily regulated global financial landscape, Goldman Sachs faces ongoing risks related to regulatory changes, increased scrutiny, and compliance. Potential increases in capital requirements, such as the Global Systemically Important Banks (GSIB) surcharge, could impact the firm's capital allocation and profitability. Furthermore, regulatory concerns regarding partnerships with riskier FinTechs or potential weaknesses in lending standards could lead to operational restrictions, reputational damage, and financial penalties.
- Private Credit and Credit Risk: Goldman Sachs has a significant presence in lending and asset management, which exposes it to risks within the private credit market and broader credit quality. The firm's CEO actively monitors potential risks such as excessive risk-taking and weakened lending standards in the private credit sector. In an environment of tightening financial conditions or economic stress, a deterioration in credit quality, increased defaults, or hidden interconnectedness within the private credit ecosystem could lead to significant losses for the firm.
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- The rise of digital-first fintech challengers, including neobanks, robo-advisors, and specialized online lenders. These platforms offer highly competitive, often lower-cost, and more user-friendly digital experiences for banking, lending, and investment management, directly competing with and potentially eroding market share from Goldman Sachs' Consumer & Wealth Management segment.
- The increasing trend for companies to remain private longer and raise substantial capital through private equity, venture capital, and direct lending funds, rather than pursuing traditional initial public offerings (IPOs) or public debt issuances. This shift in capital formation reduces the pipeline for Goldman Sachs' core underwriting business within its Investment Banking segment.
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Goldman Sachs (symbol: GS) operates across several significant global financial markets. Below are the addressable market sizes for its main products and services:
Investment Banking
- Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) Advisory: The global M&A advisory market size was estimated at $50 billion in 2025 and is projected to exhibit a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7% between 2025 and 2033. Global M&A deal value reached approximately $3.2 trillion in 2023.
- Debt Underwriting Services: The global Debt Underwriting Services Market was valued at USD 27,631.86 million in 2025 and is expected to increase to USD 38,880.80 million by 2032. Another estimate placed the market size at USD 12.5 billion in 2023, projected to reach USD 27 billion by 2030.
- Equity Underwriting Services: Null
Global Markets
- Foreign Exchange (FX) Market: The global foreign exchange market's average daily trading volume reached $9.6 trillion in April 2025.
- Over-the-Counter (OTC) Derivatives Market: The global OTC derivatives notional outstanding grew to $845.7 trillion at the end of June 2025. Another report indicated global OTC derivatives notional outstanding reached $699.5 trillion by the end of December 2024.
Asset Management
- Global Asset Management (Assets Under Management - AUM): The total assets under management (AUM) at the world's 500 largest asset managers reached USD 139.9 trillion at the end of 2024. Global AuM held by asset and wealth managers is expected to rise from US$139 trillion in 2024 to $200 trillion by 2030.
- Private Equity Market: The global private equity market size was valued at USD 6,749.85 billion in 2025. Other estimates for the global private equity market include USD 855.4 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 1,751.6 billion by 2034, and USD 19.96 trillion in 2026.
- Hedge Funds (AUM): Global hedge fund assets under management climbed to an all-time high of $4.74 trillion in Q2 2025. Total global hedge fund capital rose to a record USD 4.98 trillion in Q3 2025.
Consumer & Wealth Management
- Global Wealth Management Market: The global wealth management market size was valued at USD 2.09 trillion in 2025, with projections to grow to USD 5.95 trillion by 2033. Other sources estimate the market at approximately USD 1636.83 billion in 2024, expected to surpass USD 4893.17 billion by 2034.
- Unsecured Loans (Global Personal Loans): The Global Unsecured Loan Market is expected to grow from USD 6.38 trillion in 2025 to USD 10.29 trillion by 2031.
- Unsecured Loans (Global Business Loans): The global unsecured business loans market size is valued at USD 253.9 billion in 2025 and is estimated to reach USD 561.3 billion by 2034. Another estimate valued the global unsecured business loans market at USD 261.6 billion in 2024.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Goldman Sachs (GS)
Over the next 2-3 years, Goldman Sachs (GS) is expected to drive future revenue growth through several key initiatives and market trends:
- Rebound in Investment Banking Activity: Goldman Sachs anticipates a significant resurgence in its Investment Banking segment, particularly in advisory services for mergers and acquisitions (M&A), and in both debt and equity underwriting. This outlook is supported by an improving macroeconomic environment, a healthy global pipeline for investment banking deals, and increased client engagement in capital markets. The company has maintained its top league table positions in announced and completed M&A, and in equity and equity-related underwriting, positioning it well to capitalize on this rebound.
- Continued Growth in Asset & Wealth Management (AWM): The Asset & Wealth Management segment is projected to be a consistent driver of revenue growth, fueled by higher management and other fees, as well as an increase in assets under supervision. Goldman Sachs has reported record assets under supervision and record management and other fees, indicating sustained momentum in attracting and managing client assets across various classes. The firm's focus on its premier ultra-high net worth wealth management franchise further supports growth in this segment.
- Expansion of Financing Activities in Global Markets: Goldman Sachs has a strategic priority to expand its financing revenues within its Global Markets segment, encompassing Fixed Income, Currency, and Commodities (FICC) financing and Equities financing. The company has seen record financing revenues, which are contributing to a more durable revenue base. This growth is driven by increased client demand for committed acquisition financing and higher average balances in prime brokerage.
- Increased Focus and Investment in Core Global Banking & Markets and Asset & Wealth Management: Following its strategic streamlining and exit from certain non-core consumer banking ventures, such as the Apple Card partnership and the GreenSky business, Goldman Sachs is reallocating capital and resources to further strengthen its core Global Banking & Markets and Asset & Wealth Management divisions. This sharpened focus on higher-margin, more scalable businesses is expected to enhance profitability and drive sustained revenue growth in its foundational franchises.
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Share Repurchases
- Goldman Sachs's annual share buybacks were $12.36 billion in 2025, $8 billion in 2024, and $5.796 billion in 2023.
- On April 14, 2025, Goldman Sachs announced a new share repurchase program authorizing up to an additional $40 billion in common stock repurchases.
- As of December 31, 2022, $0.6 billion remained under the 2021 Repurchase Program, and a new $2.0 billion 2022 Repurchase Program was authorized to commence upon the completion of the 2021 program.
Share Issuance
- Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. announced a series of fixed-income offerings, including both fixed and variable rate senior notes with maturities ranging from 2026 to 2045.
- In January 2026, the company issued $16 billion in new debt securities with maturities ranging from 2029 to 2047.
- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reported issuing $2.5 billion in 5.387% Fixed-Rate Reset Subordinated Notes due in 2041 on February 2, 2026.
Outbound Investments
- In October 2025, Goldman Sachs acquired Industry Ventures, an investment firm managing $7 billion in assets, for up to $965 million ($665 million upfront in cash and equity, with an additional $300 million tied to performance through 2030).
- Goldman Sachs made a strategic shift in 2025 by divesting its consumer banking units, including the transfer of Marcus Invest clients to Betterment and the sale of GreenSky, to focus on its core strengths in investment banking and wealth management.
- The firm aims to expand its private markets and alternative investment business to $750 billion in assets by 2030, with its broader alternatives platform investing across various classes including private equity, growth equity, private credit, real estate, and infrastructure.
Capital Expenditures
- Goldman Sachs's capital expenditures for fiscal years ending December 2021 to 2025 averaged $2.977 billion.
- Capital expenditures peaked at $4.667 billion in 2021 and reached a 5-year low of $2.064 billion in 2025.
- The company's capital expenditures decreased in each of the last five fiscal years from 2021 to 2025.
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| 02282026 | NDAQ | Nasdaq | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
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| 02272026 | PAYO | Payoneer Global | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | FOUR | Shift4 Payments | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 220.61 |
| Mkt Cap | 247.2 |
| Rev LTM | 75,496 |
| Op Inc LTM | 7,909 |
| FCF LTM | -34,002 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -22,876 |
| CFO LTM | -31,522 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -20,169 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 32.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 35.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -52.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -31.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -56.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -34.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 247.2 |
| P/S | 4.0 |
| P/EBIT | 17.6 |
| P/E | 14.0 |
| P/CFO | -4.0 |
| Total Yield | 7.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -8.9% |
| D/E | 1.3 |
| Net D/E | -0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -12.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -4.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 29.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 119.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -0.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 12.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 57.5% |
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Banking & Markets | 1,420,142 | 1,381,247 | 1,169,539 | ||
| Asset & Wealth Management | 193,328 | 191,863 | 214,970 | ||
| Platform Solutions | 62,502 | 68,484 | 57,290 | ||
| Asset Management | 91,115 | 95,751 | |||
| Consumer & Wealth Management | 146,338 | 106,429 | |||
| Global Markets | 1,082,378 | 844,606 | |||
| Investment Banking | 144,157 | 116,242 | |||
| Total | 1,675,972 | 1,641,594 | 1,441,799 | 1,463,988 | 1,163,028 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $802.89 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 248.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/04/1999 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -17.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $883.80 | $797.45 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -9.2% | 0.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 34.1% | 31.9% |
| Downside Capture | 1.32 | 1.06 |
| Upside Capture | 226.09 | 168.41 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 63.5% | 78.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.47 | 2.10 | 2.07 | 1.54 | 1.36 | 1.29 |
| Up Beta | 1.96 | 1.67 | 1.39 | 1.32 | 1.15 | 1.23 |
| Down Beta | 2.20 | 1.39 | 1.53 | 0.99 | 1.34 | 1.25 |
| Up Capture | 247% | 265% | 296% | 228% | 248% | 297% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 22 | 36 | 72 | 145 | 411 |
| Down Capture | 288% | 247% | 217% | 162% | 128% | 107% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 25 | 52 | 106 | 341 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 43.0% | 32.0% | 1.14 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | -4.0% | 19.2% | -0.33 | 81.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 18.9% | 0.59 | 78.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 50.2% | 27.7% | 1.46 | 5.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 17.8% | 17.6% | 0.85 | 26.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.4% | 16.4% | -0.15 | 50.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -23.7% | 44.2% | -0.49 | 37.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 21.7% | 27.6% | 0.72 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 9.1% | 18.7% | 0.37 | 81.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.8% | 17.0% | 0.54 | 69.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.7% | 17.7% | 0.96 | 4.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.6% | 18.9% | 0.50 | 20.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.0% | 18.8% | 0.07 | 49.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.0% | 56.6% | 0.29 | 27.3% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 20.1% | 29.6% | 0.67 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 12.0% | 22.1% | 0.50 | 85.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 73.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.3% | 15.8% | 0.70 | -3.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 28.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.7% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 52.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.4% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 20.0% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/15/2026 | 4.6% | 2.4% | -3.0% |
| 10/14/2025 | -2.0% | -3.0% | 3.0% |
| 7/16/2025 | 0.9% | -0.3% | 6.0% |
| 4/14/2025 | 1.9% | 1.4% | 22.1% |
| 1/15/2025 | 6.0% | 10.7% | 13.5% |
| 10/15/2024 | -0.1% | -0.9% | 13.4% |
| 7/15/2024 | 2.6% | 1.1% | 1.2% |
| 4/15/2024 | 2.9% | 3.7% | 16.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 13 | 16 |
| # Negative | 9 | 11 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 2.3% | 3.7% | 7.5% |
| Median Negative | -1.7% | -3.0% | -3.3% |
| Max Positive | 6.0% | 10.7% | 24.8% |
| Max Negative | -7.0% | -9.9% | -5.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/02/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waldron, John E | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 8292025 | 750.11 | 9,244 | 6,933,996 | 86,463,418 | Form |
| 2 | Waldron, John E | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 8292025 | 750.51 | 9,000 | 6,754,556 | 79,754,794 | Form |
| 3 | Solomon, David M | Chairman of the Board and CEO | Direct | Sell | 7252025 | 712.31 | 6,608 | 4,706,944 | 89,876,427 | Form |
| 4 | Rogers, John Fw | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 7252025 | 717.39 | 6,008 | 4,310,059 | 47,176,068 | Form |
| 5 | Coleman, Denis P | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 7252025 | 724.40 | 7,463 | 5,406,214 | 13,469,534 | Form |
GS Trade Sentinel
MARKET WEIGHT (Score 5-6)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The probability-adjusted skew of 1.11x is positive but does not offer a compelling margin of safety. While the 'Rising Tide' bull case is plausible due to a strong backlog, the valuation is already fair, limiting the upside potential relative to the significant downside risk of a cyclical downturn. The risk/reward is not sufficiently skewed to warrant a high-conviction buy at this price.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Cyclical / CommodityGoldman Sachs's core Global Banking & Markets division is highly sensitive to the health of capital markets, M&A activity, and trading volumes. The business is currently experiencing a strong cyclical rebound off a multi-year trough, as evidenced by an accelerating investment banking backlog, making it a classic cyclical play.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary driver for appreciation is the re-acceleration of the core Investment Banking franchise. After a multi-year M&A freeze, a cyclical rebound is underway, evidenced by seven consecutive quarters of backlog growth to a four-year high. As this record backlog converts into realized revenue, it will drive high-margin fee growth and significant earnings beats.
- Investment Banking fees grew 25% YoY in Q4 2025, signaling an accelerating recovery.
- The Investment Banking fees backlog increased sequentially for the seventh consecutive quarter at the end of 2025, reaching its highest level in four years.
- Management commentary anticipates momentum to accelerate in 2026, driven by high levels of client engagement and a strong demand outlook.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary risk is a sharp global economic downturn or a capital markets shutdown triggered by unforeseen macro events. This would halt the nascent M&A recovery, causing the investment banking backlog to stagnate or shrink and severely impacting transaction volumes and trading revenues, which constitute the majority of the firm's income.
- The firm's revenue is defined as highly sensitive to capital market health, with a global recession or market shutdown being the primary bear case.
- The business model is transaction-based, making revenues inherently volatile and dependent on a constructive macroeconomic environment.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Investment Banking Fees Backlog | Sequential Quarterly Growth | This is the most critical leading indicator of future revenue and earnings power for the core, high-margin business. A slowdown or decline would be a primary bear signal. |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | Sustain above 14-16% target | Measures capital efficiency and profitability. Success in the strategic pivot towards higher-margin, less capital-intensive businesses should be reflected in a stable or rising ROE. |
| Assets Under Supervision (AUS) Growth | Positive Net Inflows | Indicates the health of the recurring-revenue Asset & Wealth Management franchise, which is key to management's strategy of improving earnings quality and stability. |
Core Franchise Rebound vs. Consumer Exit Drag
BULL VIEW
Record IB backlog and accelerating fees signal a strong cyclical rebound. The strategic pivot to AWM improves earnings quality, warranting a higher multiple.
CORE TENSION
Bulls see a durable recovery in the core Investment Banking (IB) and Asset & Wealth Management (AWM) franchises, while Bears see the costly, messy exit from consumer banking obscuring true performance.
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The investment banking fees backlog is at its highest level in four years and grew for the seventh consecutive quarter, supporting the Bull case of a core business recovery.
BEAR VIEW
Headline earnings are inflated by one-off reserve releases tied to the consumer exit. Concentrated insider selling and looming regulatory (Basel III) risks create a negative skew.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Mid-April 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Release Watch: Investment Banking backlog trend. Watch for commentary describing the pipeline as 'accelerating' or 'softening' to gauge the durability of the M&A recovery. |
H1 2026 | Federal Reserve Final Basel III 'Endgame' Proposal Watch: The final capital requirement increase and its impact on the firm's CET1 ratio target. A higher-than-expected requirement pressures future ROE and buybacks. |
Ongoing | Monthly Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Delinquency Reports Watch: Consecutive monthly increases in major CMBS delinquency indices (e.g., TREPP) for office properties, signaling a need for higher provisions for credit losses. |
April 2026 | Peer Bank (MS, JPM) Q1 Earnings Watch: Peer commentary on compensation-to-revenue ratios. A spike in comp ratios at peers would signal industry-wide margin pressure from talent costs. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-09-08 | Barclays Global Financial Services Conference Details: Management presented at the Barclays conference, discussing the firm's strategy and the broader market environment. The stock reaction was muted. | Flat (0.5%) $734.56 -> $738.19 |
2025-10-14 | Q3 2025 Earnings Report Details: Reported strong Q3 results with EPS of $12.25, reflecting strength in its client franchise and an improved market environment. Stock pulled back slightly post-announcement. | Slight -2.0% pullback $782.89 -> $766.95 |
2025-11-06 | Managing Director Class of 2025 Announced Details: Goldman Sachs announced the promotion of 638 individuals to managing director, effective January 1, 2026, reflecting leadership investment in its core franchises. | Muted (-0.7%) $789.17 -> $783.69 |
2025-12-09 | Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference Details: Hosted its annual financial services conference, providing commentary on the market outlook and strategic priorities. The stock saw a modest gain during the event. | Modest 1.1% gain $866.69 -> $876.58 |
2026-01-15 | Q4 2025 Earnings & Consumer Exit Update Details: Reported Q4 EPS of $14.01, beating estimates. Results were impacted by a $2.26B revenue reduction from markdowns on the Apple Card portfolio transfer. Despite a reported revenue miss, the stock reacted positively. | Rose significantly by 4.6% $932.67 -> $975.86 |
2026-01-26 | Leadership Update in Asset & Wealth Management Details: Goldman Sachs announced new members of its Management Committee to support the strategic growth of its Asset & Wealth Management (AWM) platform. | Modest 1.4% gain $918.88 -> $931.86 |
Position Sizing
4%-6%
NORMAL
Volatility is moderate (2.4x S&P). The Neutral sentiment and Medium visibility prevent a max-size position, but the widening moat and fair valuation support a standard allocation. This is a solid holding, not a fat pitch.
Diversification Alternatives
MS
INDUSTRYMS has already completed the strategic pivot to a wealth-management-led model that GS is still undergoing. This offers a cleaner, more stable thesis with less execution risk.
JPM
SECTORUnlike GS, JPM has a 'fortress balance sheet' and a superior efficiency ratio due to its massive scale in consumer and commercial banking, offering a safer risk profile.
Goldman Sachs is transitioning from a reliance on volatile trading and investment banking to a more durable model driven by growth in fee-based Asset & Wealth Management, aiming to command a higher, more stable valuation multiple.
Filter all news through the lens of the firm's strategic shift toward more predictable, fee-based revenue streams and away from volatile trading results.
Sustained net inflows into long-term fee-based Assets under Supervision (AUS); growth in wealth management revenues exceeding peers; successful scaling of alternatives platform hitting fundraising targets; maintaining #1 rank in M&A league tables.
A sharp downturn in capital markets activity that freezes the M&A and underwriting rebound; significant mark-to-market losses in the principal investments portfolio; larger-than-expected credit losses; failure to exit consumer platform businesses without further material charges.
Single-quarter trading results (FICC or Equities) that deviate from trend, as this is an inherently volatile business; short-term fluctuations in investment banking backlog; analyst ratings changes not tied to a shift in fundamental business mix.
Repricing Catalyst
The market is re-rating Goldman Sachs based on the accelerating growth and margin expansion of its Asset & Wealth Management (AWM) division. AWM's record management fees and $3.6 trillion in Assets Under Supervision signal a successful pivot to more durable, recurring revenues, justifying a higher valuation multiple than its historically trading-dominated profile.
Global Banking & Markets (Trading & Investment Banking)
$41.5B TTM (71% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
M&A Advisory services, Debt and Equity Underwriting, FICC (Fixed Income, Currency, Commodities) and Equities sales and trading.
Who Pays & How
Corporations and governments pay fees for advice on mergers (e.g., advising on transactions worth $1.48 trillion in 2025) and for underwriting stock/bond offerings. Institutional investors (pension funds, hedge funds) pay commissions for trade execution. The lock-in is based on long-term relationships, deal execution expertise, and balance sheet commitment.
Competition
Asset & Wealth Management
$16.7B TTM (29% of Total) · 25% MarginWhat It Is
Management of public and private investment funds, wealth advisory services, and private banking for high-net-worth individuals.
Who Pays & How
Institutions, pension funds, and high-net-worth individuals pay management and incentive fees to have their capital managed. As of year-end 2025, clients entrusted Goldman with $3.6 trillion for this purpose.
Competition
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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