Arch Capital (ACGL)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $95.67 | Market Cap: $35.3 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance
Arch Capital (ACGL)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $95.67Market Cap: $35.3 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Property & Casualty Insurance
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 18%, Dividend Yield is 5.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 14%, FCF Yield is 19% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.1% | Key risksACGL key risks include [1] increased defaults in its mortgage insurance segment from economic stress and [2] slowing premium growth from cooling demand in its key mortgage and reinsurance markets. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -25% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -14%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -0.4% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, CFO LTM is 6.3 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.3 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include AI in Financial Services, and Cybersecurity. Themes include AI for Fraud Detection, and Cloud Security. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 18%, Dividend Yield is 5.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 14%, FCF Yield is 19% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -25% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, CFO LTM is 6.3 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.3 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include AI in Financial Services, and Cybersecurity. Themes include AI for Fraud Detection, and Cloud Security. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.1% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -14%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -0.4% |
| Key risksACGL key risks include [1] increased defaults in its mortgage insurance segment from economic stress and [2] slowing premium growth from cooling demand in its key mortgage and reinsurance markets. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ACGL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The Arch Capital (ACGL) stock experienced a 4.75% increase in 2025, with a 1.92% rise on December 15, 2025. This movement can be attributed to several key factors observed in recent company performance and analyst outlooks.
1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Beat: Arch Capital reported robust third-quarter 2025 results on October 27, 2025, with an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $2.77, significantly exceeding analysts' consensus estimates of $1.76. The company also reported quarterly revenue of $5.11 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $4.39 billion. This strong financial performance likely contributed positively to investor confidence.
2. Resilient Underwriting Margins and Net Investment Income: Despite a 2.05% year-over-year revenue decline and slower written premium growth in Q3 2025, analysts highlighted Arch Capital's strong underwriting margins and growing net investment income as crucial supports for the business. These factors demonstrate the company's ability to maintain profitability even in a moderating market.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ACGL Return | -16% | 23% | 41% | 18% | 31% | 3% | 134% |
| Peers Return | -10% | 16% | 15% | 6% | 29% | 14% | 87% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ACGL Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 67% | 58% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 57% | 55% | 55% | 57% | 65% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ACGL Max Drawdown | -48% | -13% | -6% | -2% | 0% | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -11% | -12% | -8% | -1% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EG, RNR, AXS, MKL, WRB. See ACGL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ACGL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -18.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 87 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -53.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 116.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 636 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -27.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 130 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -43.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 78.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 541 days | 1480 days |
Compare to TRV, ALL, MET, AIG, PRU
In The Past
Arch Capital's stock fell -18.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/1/2023. A -18.4% loss requires a 22.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ACGL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.4% | -2.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -11.0% |
| 02292020 | ACGL | Arch Capital | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -20.2% | -11.4% | -45.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.4% | -2.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -11.0% |
| 02292020 | ACGL | Arch Capital | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -20.2% | -11.4% | -45.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Arch Capital
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 192.00 |
| Mkt Cap | 20.3 |
| Rev LTM | 15,395 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 3,659 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 3,297 |
| CFO LTM | 3,693 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,335 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 23.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 23.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 20.3 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| P/EBIT | 7.7 |
| P/E | 9.9 |
| P/CFO | 4.3 |
| Total Yield | 12.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 15.9% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | -0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 10.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 6.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 13.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 61.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 8.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -6.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -0.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -8.5% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/27/2025 | -1.4% | 0.1% | 8.9% |
| 7/29/2025 | -0.6% | 2.9% | 6.5% |
| 4/29/2025 | -1.9% | 0.7% | 2.0% |
| 2/10/2025 | -2.0% | -3.4% | -2.5% |
| 10/30/2024 | -6.3% | -3.3% | 0.7% |
| 7/30/2024 | -2.5% | -1.6% | 13.0% |
| 4/29/2024 | 2.5% | 6.5% | 11.3% |
| 2/14/2024 | 3.0% | 1.1% | 8.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 12 | 15 |
| # Negative | 15 | 11 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 2.4% | 3.2% | 8.3% |
| Median Negative | -2.2% | -1.8% | -3.2% |
| Max Positive | 5.0% | 6.5% | 16.1% |
| Max Negative | -6.3% | -9.0% | -16.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |