Tearsheet

Arch Capital (ACGL)


Market Price (12/14/2025): $93.86 | Market Cap: $34.6 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance

Arch Capital (ACGL)


Market Price (12/14/2025): $93.86
Market Cap: $34.6 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 18%, Dividend Yield is 5.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 14%, FCF Yield is 19%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.1%
 
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -25%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -24%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -9.3%
 
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, CFO LTM is 6.3 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.3 Bil
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 25%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include AI in Financial Services, and Cybersecurity. Themes include AI for Fraud Detection, and Cloud Security.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 18%, Dividend Yield is 5.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 14%, FCF Yield is 19%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -25%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, CFO LTM is 6.3 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.3 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 25%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include AI in Financial Services, and Cybersecurity. Themes include AI for Fraud Detection, and Cloud Security.
5 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.1%
6 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -24%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -9.3%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ACGL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why Arch Capital (ACGL) stock experienced movements, including a 2.6% change, during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 15, 2025: 1. On September 15, 2025, Arch Capital's stock declined by 2.6% from its previous trading session. This specific drop occurred on a day when the broader market, including the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq, recorded gains, suggesting that company-specific or sector-related factors may have influenced this particular movement. 2. Arch Capital's third-quarter 2025 earnings significantly surpassed analyst expectations for earnings per share (EPS). Announced on October 27-28, 2025, the company reported an EPS of $2.77, considerably beating the consensus estimate of $2.23. This strong performance included a 37% year-over-year increase in both after-tax operating income and net income, which positively influenced investor sentiment despite mixed results on revenue forecasts. 3.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ACGL Return-16%23%41%18%31%1%130%
Peers Return-10%16%15%6%29%12%85%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ACGL Win Rate67%67%67%58%58%42% 
Peers Win Rate55%57%55%55%57%65% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ACGL Max Drawdown-48%-13%-6%-2%0%-8% 
Peers Max Drawdown-39%-11%-12%-8%-1%-7% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EG, RNR, AXS, MKL, WRB. See ACGL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventACGLS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-18.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven22.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven87 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-53.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven116.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven636 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-27.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven37.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven130 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-43.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven78.4%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven541 days1480 days

Compare to TRV, ALL, MET, AIG, PRU


In The Past

Arch Capital's stock fell -18.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/1/2023. A -18.4% loss requires a 22.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Arch Capital (ACGL)

Better Bets than Arch Capital (ACGL)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ACGL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.5%16.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
11.3%11.3%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.8%-1.8%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.4%5.4%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-8.8%-8.8%-11.0%
ACGL_2292020_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%02292020ACGLArch CapitalQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-20.2%-11.4%-45.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.5%16.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
11.3%11.3%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.8%-1.8%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.4%5.4%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-8.8%-8.8%-11.0%
ACGL_2292020_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%02292020ACGLArch CapitalQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-20.2%-11.4%-45.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Arch Capital

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ACGLEGRNRAXSMKLWRBMedian
NameArch Cap.Everest Renaissa.Axis Cap.Markel WR Berkl. 
Mkt Price93.86327.24271.37103.872,167.0169.30187.62
Mkt Cap34.613.512.48.127.227.520.4
Rev LTM19,04817,50912,1036,28616,14614,64515,395
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM6,2954,2463,989-3162,3753,3303,659
FCF 3Y Avg6,0084,6643,3407702,5353,2543,297
CFO LTM6,3414,2463,989-3162,5933,3983,693
CFO 3Y Avg6,0574,6643,3407702,7703,3303,335

Growth & Margins

ACGLEGRNRAXSMKLWRBMedian
NameArch Cap.Everest Renaissa.Axis Cap.Markel WR Berkl. 
Rev Chg LTM17.5%8.7%-3.9%7.5%-6.6%11.3%8.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg28.9%14.2%44.8%5.7%13.2%10.6%13.7%
Rev Chg Q11.0%-0.1%-19.7%11.4%-2.5%12.0%5.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.7%-0.0%-6.1%2.8%-0.7%2.8%1.3%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM33.3%24.3%33.0%-5.0%16.1%23.2%23.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg38.6%29.6%30.3%13.6%17.1%25.2%27.4%
FCF/Rev LTM33.0%24.3%33.0%-5.0%14.7%22.7%23.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg38.2%29.6%30.3%13.6%15.7%24.7%27.1%

Valuation

ACGLEGRNRAXSMKLWRBMedian
NameArch Cap.Everest Renaissa.Axis Cap.Markel WR Berkl. 
Mkt Cap34.613.512.48.127.227.520.4
P/S1.80.81.01.21.52.11.3
P/EBIT7.219.74.26.18.211.97.7
P/E8.226.36.77.311.516.09.9
P/CFO5.33.42.9-23.49.39.04.3
Total Yield17.8%6.1%15.5%15.6%8.7%7.9%12.1%
Dividend Yield5.6%2.3%0.7%2.0%0.0%1.7%1.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg17.3%29.6%27.9%13.4%12.0%14.5%15.9%
D/E0.10.20.20.20.20.10.2
Net D/E-0.3-1.1-0.5-0.6-0.3-0.8-0.5

Returns

ACGLEGRNRAXSMKLWRBMedian
NameArch Cap.Everest Renaissa.Axis Cap.Markel WR Berkl. 
1M Rtn1.4%1.0%3.0%1.6%5.2%-10.0%1.5%
3M Rtn1.7%-5.7%9.9%5.3%10.9%-6.0%3.5%
6M Rtn3.2%-1.0%11.2%1.8%12.4%-4.6%2.5%
12M Rtn0.5%-7.6%1.8%15.3%24.8%16.4%8.6%
3Y Rtn62.5%7.9%53.9%101.0%69.3%54.9%58.7%
1M Excs Rtn2.6%1.7%2.4%2.5%3.9%-9.2%2.5%
3M Excs Rtn1.2%-6.3%8.3%5.5%9.3%-8.0%3.4%
6M Excs Rtn-11.1%-15.2%-3.0%-12.4%-1.9%-18.8%-11.7%
12M Excs Rtn-12.6%-20.7%-11.6%5.7%10.4%2.2%-4.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-9.4%-69.0%-21.2%23.6%-6.1%-24.1%-15.3%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6,152,016
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520258.3%
Average Daily Volume1,670,265
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.68
Basic Shares Quantity369,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.7%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/27/2025-1.4%0.1%8.9%
7/29/2025-0.6%2.9%6.5%
4/29/2025-1.9%0.7%2.0%
2/10/2025-2.0%-3.4%-2.5%
10/30/2024-6.3%-3.3%0.7%
7/30/2024-2.5%-1.6%13.0%
4/29/20242.5%6.5%11.3%
2/14/20243.0%1.1%8.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive81215
# Negative15118
Median Positive2.4%3.2%8.3%
Median Negative-2.2%-1.8%-3.2%
Max Positive5.0%6.5%16.1%
Max Negative-6.3%-9.0%-16.5%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023223202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021