CME (CME)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $274.34 | Market Cap: $98.7 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Financial Exchanges & Data
CME (CME)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $274.34Market Cap: $98.7 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Financial Exchanges & Data
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include AI in Financial Services, Crypto & Blockchain, and Markets & Betting. Themes include Algorithmic Trading, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include AI in Financial Services, Crypto & Blockchain, and Markets & Betting. Themes include Algorithmic Trading, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CME Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points highlighting why CME stock moved by 3.4% during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. CME Group reported consistent strong or record trading volumes across multiple months.
The company achieved its second-highest August average daily volume (ADV) of 28.1 million contracts, including record cryptocurrency ADV of 411,000 contracts. In September 2025, CME Group reported its second-highest Q3 and September ADV, with quarterly cryptocurrency ADV reaching a record of 340,000 contracts. October 2025 saw CME Group's highest October ADV on record at 26.3 million contracts, an 8% increase year-over-year, alongside record Metals and Cryptocurrency ADV. This trend continued into November, with the second-highest monthly ADV of 33.1 million contracts, a 10% increase year-over-year, and a record Cryptocurrency ADV of 424,000 contracts.
2. Significant expansion and record performance in cryptocurrency products bolstered investor confidence.
CME Group announced on October 2, 2025, its plan to offer around-the-clock trading for cryptocurrency futures and options starting in early 2026. The company also launched options on Solana and XRP futures in mid-October 2025. Furthermore, CME Group's cryptocurrency futures and options suite set an all-time daily volume record of 794,903 contracts on November 21, 2025.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CME Return | -6% | 29% | -23% | 31% | 15% | 21% | 72% |
| Peers Return | 19% | 31% | -14% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 82% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CME Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 42% | 67% | 50% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 57% | 45% | 58% | 53% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CME Max Drawdown | -30% | -2% | -25% | 0% | -7% | -3% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -32% | -11% | -32% | -21% | -11% | -11% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SCHW, ICE, NDAQ, CBOE, MKTX. See CME Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CME | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 869 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 599 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -16.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 70 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -78.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 354.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 3288 days | 1480 days |
Compare to SCHW, ICE, NDAQ, CBOE, MKTX
In The Past
CME's stock fell -32.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/21/2022. A -32.4% loss requires a 48.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CME. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| 10312022 | CME | CME | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.9% | 29.4% | -2.1% |
| 10312020 | CME | CME | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 37.1% | 51.0% | -0.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| 10312022 | CME | CME | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.9% | 29.4% | -2.1% |
| 10312020 | CME | CME | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 37.1% | 51.0% | -0.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for CME
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Valuation
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Returns
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Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Interest rates | 1,558 | 1,327 | 1,122 | 1,008 | 1,278 |
| Equity indexes | 1,036 | 1,016 | 752 | 804 | 584 |
| Energy | 703 | 586 | 616 | 699 | 684 |
| Market data and information services | 664 | 611 | 577 | 545 | 518 |
| Agricultural commodities | 508 | 445 | 458 | 462 | 452 |
| Other | 327 | 266 | 348 | 441 | 403 |
| Metals | 225 | 197 | 199 | 248 | 239 |
| Foreign exchange | 190 | 188 | 159 | 163 | 159 |
| BrokerTec fixed income | 152 | 165 | 172 | ||
| Electronic Broking Services (EBS) foreign exchange | 133 | 154 | 164 | ||
| Interest rate swap | 83 | 65 | 63 | 65 | 67 |
| Optimization | 0 | 60 | |||
| Cash markets business | 447 | 483 | |||
| Total | 5,579 | 5,019 | 4,690 | 4,884 | 4,868 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10242025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7252025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
