Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include AI in Financial Services, Crypto & Blockchain, and Markets & Betting. Themes include Algorithmic Trading, Show more.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include AI in Financial Services, Crypto & Blockchain, and Markets & Betting. Themes include Algorithmic Trading, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CME Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points highlighting why CME stock moved by 3.4% during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. CME Group reported consistent strong or record trading volumes across multiple months. The company achieved its second-highest August average daily volume (ADV) of 28.1 million contracts, including record cryptocurrency ADV of 411,000 contracts. In September 2025, CME Group reported its second-highest Q3 and September ADV, with quarterly cryptocurrency ADV reaching a record of 340,000 contracts. October 2025 saw CME Group's highest October ADV on record at 26.3 million contracts, an 8% increase year-over-year, alongside record Metals and Cryptocurrency ADV. This trend continued into November, with the second-highest monthly ADV of 33.1 million contracts, a 10% increase year-over-year, and a record Cryptocurrency ADV of 424,000 contracts.

2. Significant expansion and record performance in cryptocurrency products bolstered investor confidence. CME Group announced on October 2, 2025, its plan to offer around-the-clock trading for cryptocurrency futures and options starting in early 2026. The company also launched options on Solana and XRP futures in mid-October 2025. Furthermore, CME Group's cryptocurrency futures and options suite set an all-time daily volume record of 794,903 contracts on November 21, 2025.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CME Return-6%29%-23%31%15%21%72%
Peers Return19%31%-14%12%10%10%82%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CME Win Rate58%42%42%67%50%70% 
Peers Win Rate57%57%45%58%53%54% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CME Max Drawdown-30%-2%-25%0%-7%-3% 
Peers Max Drawdown-32%-11%-32%-21%-11%-11% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SCHW, ICE, NDAQ, CBOE, MKTX. See CME Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCMES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-32.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven48.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven869 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-37.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven60.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven599 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-16.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven20.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven70 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-78.0%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven354.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven3288 days1480 days

Compare to SCHW, ICE, NDAQ, CBOE, MKTX


In The Past

CME's stock fell -32.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/21/2022. A -32.4% loss requires a 48.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About CME (CME)

Interactive Breakdown

CME Interactive Breakdown Analysis

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CME. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
CME_10312022_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312022CMECMEDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
11.9%29.4%-2.1%
CME_10312020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312020CMECMEDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
37.1%51.0%-0.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
CME_10312022_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312022CMECMEDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
11.9%29.4%-2.1%
CME_10312020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312020CMECMEDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
37.1%51.0%-0.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for CME

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CMESCHWICENDAQCBOEMKTXMedian
NameCME Charles .Intercon.Nasdaq Cboe Glo.MarketAx. 
Mkt Price-------
Mkt Cap-------
Rev LTM-------
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM-------
FCF 3Y Avg-------
CFO LTM-------
CFO 3Y Avg-------

Growth & Margins

CMESCHWICENDAQCBOEMKTXMedian
NameCME Charles .Intercon.Nasdaq Cboe Glo.MarketAx. 
Rev Chg LTM-------
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-------
Rev Chg Q-------
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-------
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM-------
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-------
FCF/Rev LTM-------
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-------

Valuation

CMESCHWICENDAQCBOEMKTXMedian
NameCME Charles .Intercon.Nasdaq Cboe Glo.MarketAx. 
Mkt Cap-------
P/S-------
P/EBIT-------
P/E-------
P/CFO-------
Total Yield-------
Dividend Yield-------
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-------
D/E-------
Net D/E-------

Returns

CMESCHWICENDAQCBOEMKTXMedian
NameCME Charles .Intercon.Nasdaq Cboe Glo.MarketAx. 
1M Rtn-------
3M Rtn-------
6M Rtn-------
12M Rtn-------
3Y Rtn-------
1M Excs Rtn-------
3M Excs Rtn-------
6M Excs Rtn-------
12M Excs Rtn-------
3Y Excs Rtn-------

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Interest rates1,5581,3271,1221,0081,278
Equity indexes1,0361,016752804584
Energy703586616699684
Market data and information services664611577545518
Agricultural commodities508445458462452
Other327266348441403
Metals225197199248239
Foreign exchange190188159163159
BrokerTec fixed income152165172  
Electronic Broking Services (EBS) foreign exchange133154164  
Interest rate swap8365636567
Optimization 060  
Cash markets business   447483
Total5,5795,0194,6904,8844,868


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,410,273
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202531.7%
Average Daily Volume1,907,310
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.84
Basic Shares Quantity359,686,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251024202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025725202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025430202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024805202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024501202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231101202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021