AGNC Investment (AGNC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $10.47 | Market Cap: $11.0 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Mortgage REITs
AGNC Investment (AGNC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $10.47Market Cap: $11.0 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Mortgage REITs
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.0%, FCF Yield is 5.9% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.3%, Dist 3Y High is -0.3% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 11x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 63%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 63% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -3.2% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -24% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -28% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Financial Markets Evolution. Themes include Mortgage Market Dynamics, Securitized Real Estate Investment, and Financial Market Volatility & Hedging. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.0%, FCF Yield is 5.9% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 63%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 63% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -28% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Financial Markets Evolution. Themes include Mortgage Market Dynamics, Securitized Real Estate Investment, and Financial Market Volatility & Hedging. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.3%, Dist 3Y High is -0.3% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -3.2% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 11x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -24% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AGNC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points explaining the stock movement for AGNC Investment (AGNC) from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Performance: AGNC Investment Corp. announced its third quarter 2025 financial results on October 20, 2025, reporting a 6.0% increase in tangible net book value per common share to $8.28 as of September 30, 2025, from $7.81 at June 30, 2025. The company also achieved a 10.6% economic return on tangible common equity for the quarter, driven by tighter mortgage spreads to benchmark rates. While earnings per share (EPS) of $0.35 missed analyst expectations of $0.39, revenue exceeded forecasts at $903 million against an anticipated $883.28 million.
2. Consistent Monthly Dividend Declarations: Throughout this period, AGNC consistently declared monthly cash dividends of $0.12 per common share for August, September, October, and November 2025. This steady dividend payout, along with a substantial dividend yield (e.g., 13.97% as of November 12, 2025), provided attractive income to investors.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AGNC Return | -2% | 5% | -22% | 10% | 9% | 30% | 26% |
| Peers Return | -17% | 34% | -23% | 12% | 20% | 3% | 19% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AGNC Win Rate | 75% | 58% | 42% | 42% | 67% | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 43% | 72% | 45% | 50% | 57% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AGNC Max Drawdown | -46% | -2% | -46% | -25% | -5% | -9% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -45% | -5% | -32% | -24% | -14% | -17% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ADC, BRX, FR, VNO, KRC. See AGNC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AGNC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -60.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 153.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -52.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 109.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -32.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -31.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 109 days | 1480 days |
Compare to ADC, BRX, FR, VNO, KRC
In The Past
AGNC Investment's stock fell -60.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2021. A -60.6% loss requires a 153.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AGNC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for AGNC Investment
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 38.56 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.6 |
| Rev LTM | 1,041 |
| Op Inc LTM | 330 |
| FCF LTM | 544 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 395 |
| CFO LTM | 585 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 503 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 35.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 36.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 60.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 48.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 60.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 47.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.6 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| P/EBIT | 15.4 |
| P/E | 20.5 |
| P/CFO | 14.9 |
| Total Yield | 8.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.8% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 2.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 9.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 6.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 23.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -2.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -4.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -10.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -45.8% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10312025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8012025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11012024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11062023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5082023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Bell Bernice | EVP, CFO | 11102025 | Sell | 10.21 | 10,000 | 102,150 | 3,572,383 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |