AGNC Investment (AGNC)
Market Price (7/24/2026): $10.58 | Market Cap: $11.9 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Mortgage REITs
AGNC Investment (AGNC)
Market Price (7/24/2026): $10.58Market Cap: $11.9 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Mortgage REITs
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 27%, Dividend Yield is 14%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 22%, FCF Yield is 7.2% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 175% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 53%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 53% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 20% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Financial Markets Evolution. Themes include Mortgage Market Dynamics, Securitized Real Estate Investment, and Financial Market Volatility & Hedging. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -246% Key risksAGNC key risks include [1] its business model's high sensitivity to interest rate and spread fluctuations, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 27%, Dividend Yield is 14%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 22%, FCF Yield is 7.2% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 175% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 53%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 53% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 20% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Financial Markets Evolution. Themes include Mortgage Market Dynamics, Securitized Real Estate Investment, and Financial Market Volatility & Hedging. |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -246% |
| Key risksAGNC key risks include [1] its business model's high sensitivity to interest rate and spread fluctuations, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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AGNC Investment (AGNC) stock has gained about 10% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant Turnaround in Fiscal Q2 2026 Financial Performance. AGNC Investment Corp. reported a net income available to common stockholders of $610 million for fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026), marking a substantial recovery from a $(192) million loss in fiscal Q1 2026. The company's comprehensive income per common share also reached $0.52 for the quarter, surpassing analyst estimates of $0.45.
2. Improvement in Tangible Net Book Value and Economic Return. The company's tangible net book value per common share increased by 2.4% to $8.58 as of June 30, 2026, up from $8.38 as of March 31, 2026. This growth, combined with dividends, led to a positive economic return on tangible common equity of 6.7% for fiscal Q2 2026, a notable improvement from a negative 1.6% in the preceding fiscal quarter.
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AGNC Investment (AGNC) stock has gained about 10% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant Turnaround in Fiscal Q2 2026 Financial Performance. AGNC Investment Corp. reported a net income available to common stockholders of $610 million for fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026), marking a substantial recovery from a $(192) million loss in fiscal Q1 2026. The company's comprehensive income per common share also reached $0.52 for the quarter, surpassing analyst estimates of $0.45.
2. Improvement in Tangible Net Book Value and Economic Return. The company's tangible net book value per common share increased by 2.4% to $8.58 as of June 30, 2026, up from $8.38 as of March 31, 2026. This growth, combined with dividends, led to a positive economic return on tangible common equity of 6.7% for fiscal Q2 2026, a notable improvement from a negative 1.6% in the preceding fiscal quarter.
3. Favorable Dynamics within the Agency MBS Market. Elevated mortgage rates contributed to a reduction in the projected supply of Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), while demand for these securities remained robust. This combination created a positive technical backdrop that supported Agency MBS performance and led to tighter spreads to benchmark rates, benefiting AGNC's investment portfolio.
4. Broader REIT Sector Rebound and Investor Shift Towards Value. The overall Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) sector demonstrated strong performance during the period, achieving a 13.66% total return in the first half of 2026 and maintaining a three-month winning streak through mid-July. This sector-wide momentum was partly fueled by a rotation of investor capital from technology stocks into value and defensive sectors, providing a tailwind for AGNC.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 8.9% change in AGNC stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/23/2026 was primarily driven by a 27.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.70 | 10.56 | 8.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,797 | 1,605 | -10.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 92.9% | 91.7% | -1.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.3 | 8.1 | 27.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,090 | 1,123 | -2.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 8.9% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AGNC | 8.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.5% | 50.2% |
| Sector (XLF) | 13.1% | 41.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 5.3% change in AGNC stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/23/2026 was primarily driven by a 67.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 10.03 | 10.56 | 5.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 956 | 1,605 | 67.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 87.7% | 91.7% | 4.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.6 | 8.1 | -36.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,053 | 1,123 | -6.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 5.3% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AGNC | 5.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.5% | 53.7% |
| Sector (XLF) | 2.5% | 37.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 31.9% change in AGNC stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/23/2026 was primarily driven by a 174.8% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.00 | 10.56 | 31.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 584 | 1,605 | 174.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 80.5% | 91.7% | 14.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.6 | 8.1 | -48.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 918 | 1,123 | -18.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 31.9% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AGNC | 31.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.5% | 44.6% |
| Sector (XLF) | 7.9% | 35.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 62.2% change in AGNC stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/23/2026 was primarily driven by a -48.4% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 6.51 | 10.56 | 62.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | -615 | 1,605 | -361.0% |
| P/S Multiple | -6.1 | 7.4 | -220.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 579 | 1,123 | -48.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 62.2% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AGNC | 62.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 72.4% | 50.8% |
| Sector (XLF) | 73.1% | 45.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AGNC Return | 5% | -22% | 10% | 9% | 35% | 7% | 43% |
| Peers Return | 21% | -17% | 23% | -1% | 20% | -1% | 45% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AGNC Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 42% | 67% | 83% | 43% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 52% | 55% | 57% | 57% | 46% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AGNC Max Drawdown | -18% | -48% | -37% | -11% | -21% | -19% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -15% | -35% | -27% | -15% | -18% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: NLY, STWD, BXMT, RITM, ARI. See AGNC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/23/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AGNC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 132 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.4% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -20.8% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.2% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 215 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -47.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 91.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 709 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -51.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 105.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 391 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -15.0% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.6% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 56 days | 62 days |
In The Past
AGNC Investment's stock fell -20.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 25.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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| Event | AGNC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 132 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.4% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -20.8% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.2% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 215 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -47.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 91.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 709 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -51.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 105.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 391 days | 140 days |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | ||
| % Loss | -36.7% | -0.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.1% | 0.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1209 days | 1 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -26.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 60 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
AGNC Investment's stock fell -20.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 25.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About AGNC Investment (AGNC)
AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) primarily focused on the U.S. mortgage market. The company specializes in investing in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), which include both pass-through securities and collateralized mortgage obligations. A key characteristic of AGNC's investments is their security: the principal and interest payments for these securities are guaranteed by agencies of the U.S. government or government-sponsored enterprises, such as Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.
AGNC funds its substantial portfolio of mortgage-backed securities primarily through collateralized borrowings, structured as repurchase agreements. As a REIT, AGNC is legally structured to pass through most of its earnings directly to shareholders. This means the company avoids federal corporate income taxes by distributing at least 90% of its taxable income, making it a distinct investment vehicle often attractive to those seeking regular income from the mortgage sector.
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Here are 1-2 brief analogies to describe AGNC Investment:
- It's like a real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests in mortgages, similar to how Simon Property Group invests in malls, but AGNC buys government-guaranteed mortgage bonds instead of physical properties.
- Imagine the part of a large bank, like JPMorgan Chase, that manages its portfolio of mortgage securities, but AGNC does this exclusively for government-backed mortgages, using significant borrowed money.
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- Investment in Residential Mortgage Pass-Through Securities: The company acquires securities representing ownership in pools of residential mortgage loans, with principal and interest payments guaranteed by government-sponsored enterprises or agencies.
- Investment in Collateralized Mortgage Obligations (CMOs): AGNC invests in debt obligations backed by pools of mortgages, structured to provide various payment streams, and guaranteed by government-sponsored enterprises or agencies.
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Major Customers of AGNC Investment (AGNC)
AGNC Investment Corp. operates as a mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT). Its core business model involves investing in residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and generating income from the net interest margin between its investment portfolio and its funding costs.
Due to this investment-centric business model, AGNC does not have traditional "customers" who purchase products or services from the company in the way a typical manufacturing or service-oriented business would. Its revenue is derived primarily from the interest payments on the mortgage-backed securities it holds.
These principal and interest payments are guaranteed by U.S. government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) such as Fannie Mae (OTCMKTS: FNMA) and Freddie Mac (OTCMKTS: FMCC), or by U.S. government agencies like Ginnie Mae. While these entities are crucial to AGNC's revenue stream by guaranteeing the payments, they are not customers purchasing a service or product from AGNC. Rather, they are guarantors of the financial assets AGNC holds.
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- Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA)
- Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FMCC)
- Government National Mortgage Association
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Peter J. Federico, President and Chief Executive Officer
Peter J. Federico has served as a Director and Chief Executive Officer of AGNC Investment Corp. since July 2021, and as President since March 2018. He also assumed the role of Chief Investment Officer in March 2025. Prior to his CEO appointment, he held various leadership positions at AGNC, including Chief Operating Officer from 2018 to 2021, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer from 2016 to 2018, and Senior Vice President and Chief Risk Officer from 2011 to 2016. Before joining AGNC Investment Corp., Mr. Federico spent over two decades at Freddie Mac, where he served as Executive Vice President and Treasurer from 2010 to 2011, overseeing a $1.2 trillion interest-rate derivatives portfolio and debt issuance programs. He also held roles as Senior Vice President, Asset & Liability Management at Freddie Mac. Additionally, he was President & Chief Operating Officer for MTGE Investment Corp. and held positions at The Freddie Mac Foundation, Inc.
Bernice E. Bell, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Bernice E. Bell has been Executive Vice President of AGNC Investment Corp. since January 2022 and Chief Financial Officer since March 2018. She also serves as Chief Financial Officer & Vice President of American Capital AGNC Management LLC. Her tenure at AGNC includes roles as Senior Vice President from 2016 to 2022, Chief Accounting Officer from 2016 to 2018, Vice President from 2011 to 2016, and Controller from 2008 to 2015. Before AGNC, Ms. Bell served as Vice President and Controller of American Capital, Ltd. from 2003 to 2009. She was also Vice President and Controller for privately-held telecommunications and software development companies from 1998 to 2003 and worked at Price Waterhouse, LLP from 1994 to 1998. She is a Certified Public Accountant.
Gary D. Kain, Executive Chair
Gary D. Kain has served as the Executive Chair of AGNC Investment Corp.'s Board of Directors since July 2021 and has been a Director since March 2016. Previously, he held the titles of Chief Executive Officer from 2016 to 2021 and Chief Investment Officer from 2009 to 2021. He also served as President from 2011 to 2018. Prior to joining AGNC Investment Corp., Mr. Kain held senior mortgage investment leadership positions at Freddie Mac, including Senior Vice President of Investments & Capital Markets from 2008 to 2009, and Senior Vice President of Mortgage Investments & Structuring from 2005 to 2008, where he managed mortgage investment activities for a $700 billion retained portfolio. He was an early investment lead at AGNC when it was formed by American Capital Ltd. in 2008. He also served as Director, CEO, President, and CIO of MTGE Investment Corp.
Christopher J. Kuehl, Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer
Christopher J. Kuehl serves as Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer of AGNC Investment Corp., a role he assumed in July 2021. He joined AGNC in August 2010 and previously served as Executive Vice President – Agency Portfolio Investments since November 2016, and as Senior Vice President from 2012 to 2016. Mr. Kuehl has extensive experience investing in mortgage-backed securities and has worked alongside Peter Federico and Gary Kain at AGNC for over 12 years.
Kenneth L. Pollack, Executive Vice President, General Counsel, Chief Compliance Officer, and Secretary
Kenneth L. Pollack holds the titles of Executive Vice President, General Counsel, Chief Compliance Officer, and Secretary at AGNC Investment Corp. He joined American Capital in 2004 as Vice President and Associate General Counsel. Before his time at American Capital, Mr. Pollack was a member of the Corporate & Securities and Real Estate practice groups at Arnold & Porter LLP. His practice there focused on public and private mergers and acquisitions, buyouts, private equity, and secured lending transactions across various business sectors. He also provided counsel on corporate governance issues and regulatory compliance matters.
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The key risks to AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) primarily stem from its business model as a mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT), which involves investing in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) using significant leverage.
- Interest Rate Risk: AGNC's profitability is highly sensitive to changes in interest rates. As an mREIT, the company borrows funds short-term (primarily through repurchase agreements) and invests in longer-term residential mortgage pass-through securities and collateralized mortgage obligations. Rising interest rates can lead to increased funding costs and a decrease in the value of its existing fixed-rate MBS portfolio, which can squeeze profit margins and erode book value. Conversely, while falling rates can reduce borrowing costs, they also introduce prepayment risk. Interest rate volatility itself can negatively impact the company's performance.
- Leverage Risk: AGNC employs substantial leverage to enhance its returns, with its "at-risk" leverage ratio often being significant (e.g., 7.5x tangible net book value as of Q3 2025). While leverage can amplify gains when market conditions are favorable, it also magnifies losses during periods of adverse market movements, particularly those driven by interest rate fluctuations. This amplified exposure can lead to increased volatility in the company's book value and potential reductions in dividend payments.
- MBS Spread Volatility (including Prepayment and Extension Risk): AGNC's business is exposed to fluctuations in the spreads between the yields on its mortgage-backed securities and its funding costs. This encompasses two related risks:
- Prepayment Risk: When interest rates decline, homeowners are more likely to refinance their mortgages, leading to earlier-than-anticipated principal payments on AGNC's MBS. This forces the company to reinvest the returned capital at potentially lower prevailing interest rates, thereby reducing its overall portfolio yield.
- Extension Risk: Conversely, if interest rates rise, homeowners may delay refinancing, causing the average life of AGNC's MBS to extend. This can lock the company into lower-yielding assets for a longer duration, potentially missing opportunities to invest in new, higher-yielding securities.
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The addressable market for AGNC Investment Corp.'s main products and services, which consist of residential mortgage pass-through securities and collateralized mortgage obligations guaranteed by United States government-sponsored enterprises or government agencies (known as Agency MBS), is estimated to be approximately USD 13.85 trillion in the U.S..
The overall Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) market in the United States is estimated at USD 15.55 trillion in 2025. Within this, the non-agency Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities (RMBS) market, which does not carry a government guarantee, has over USD 1.7 trillion in outstanding securities. By subtracting the non-agency portion from the total MBS market, the addressable market for Agency MBS is determined for the U.S. region.
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AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through a combination of favorable macroeconomic conditions and strategic operational initiatives. The company's focus as a real estate investment trust (REIT) specializing in Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) means its performance is closely tied to interest rate environments and effective portfolio management.
- Favorable Interest Rate Environment and Yield Curve Normalization: A significant driver of revenue growth for AGNC is the expectation of a more favorable interest rate environment, characterized by potential federal fund rate cuts and a normalizing or positively sloped yield curve. This shift is expected to reduce AGNC's borrowing costs, which are primarily structured as repurchase agreements, thereby improving its net interest margin (NIM) and overall profitability. Analysts and company executives have indicated that the Federal Reserve's pivot to a more accommodative monetary policy, including anticipated rate cuts in 2025 and 2026, will create beneficial conditions for high-quality fixed-income instruments like Agency MBS.
- Stable and Attractive Agency MBS Spreads: The core of AGNC's profitability lies in the spread between the yields on its Agency MBS assets and its funding costs. The company's future revenue growth is highly dependent on these spreads remaining stable and attractive. Management commentary frequently highlights that a consistent and favorable trading range for Agency MBS spreads to benchmark rates is crucial for generating strong economic returns. While some volatility may occur, the outlook points towards spreads remaining in a range that offers appealing levered returns for Agency REITs.
- Growth of Investment Portfolio through Opportunistic Capital Raises: AGNC has a demonstrated strategy of opportunistic capital raises, primarily through at-the-market (ATM) equity offerings. These capital infusions provide the company with the necessary funds to expand its investment portfolio by purchasing new Agency MBS. A larger asset base directly translates to increased potential for interest income, which is a primary component of AGNC's revenue. For instance, in Q3 2024, AGNC added about $5 billion in Agency MBS, growing its portfolio to $72.1 billion, and continued significant capital raising in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025.
- Active Portfolio Management and Strategic Asset Allocation: AGNC's proactive and dynamic approach to managing its investment portfolio, including strategic asset allocation, is expected to enhance revenue. This involves optimizing existing holdings, rotating towards higher-coupon securities, and carefully managing prepayment risk to stabilize cash flows and enhance net interest income. The company's strategy includes increasing exposure to higher-coupon securities to provide greater stability in cash flows, especially during periods of fluctuating interest rates.
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Share Repurchases
- AGNC Investment Corp.'s board of directors authorized a new share repurchase program of up to $1 billion in October 2024, set to continue through December 31, 2026.
- As of September 30, 2025, the full $1 billion authorization for share repurchases remained available.
- Management's strategy is to repurchase shares only when they trade below the tangible net book value.
Share Issuance
- For the full year 2025, AGNC issued 208.2 million shares of common equity through at-the-market (ATM) offerings, resulting in net proceeds of $2.0 billion.
- In 2025, the company also issued $345 million of 8.75% Series H Fixed-Rate preferred equity.
- During the third quarter of 2025, AGNC issued 31.0 million shares of common equity through ATM offerings, generating net proceeds of $309 million.
Outbound Investments
- AGNC's core business involves investing in residential mortgage pass-through securities and collateralized mortgage obligations, primarily Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS).
- As of December 31, 2025, the company's investment portfolio totaled $94.8 billion, predominantly consisting of Agency MBS and TBA (to-be-announced) securities.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 13.45 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.5 |
| Rev LTM | 1,213 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 186 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 357 |
| CFO LTM | 230 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 357 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 34.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | - |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | - |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 48.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 68.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 30.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.5% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $10.56 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 11.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/15/2008 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -7.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $10.50 | $10.14 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 0.5% | 4.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 20.2% | 20.2% |
| Downside Capture | 85.10 | 58.26 |
| Upside Capture | 71.48 | 74.92 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 45.9% | 44.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.46 | 0.59 | 0.76 | 0.88 | 0.69 | 0.76 |
| Up Beta | 0.84 | 0.98 | 1.13 | 0.91 | 0.89 | 0.62 |
| Down Beta | 1.09 | 0.66 | 0.50 | 1.16 | 0.71 | 0.82 |
| Up Capture | 51% | 41% | 69% | 75% | 65% | 62% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 21 | 34 | 62 | 130 | 397 |
| Down Capture | -15% | 49% | 55% | 78% | 57% | 94% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 19 | 27 | 60 | 113 | 327 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AGNC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGNC | 29.5% | 20.3% | 1.16 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 7.3% | 14.6% | 0.26 | 35.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 18.5% | 12.7% | 1.06 | 45.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.6% | 28.1% | 0.57 | 34.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 35.2% | 19.1% | 1.45 | -15.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.6% | 13.9% | 0.55 | 50.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -45.1% | 42.9% | -1.28 | 20.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AGNC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGNC | 5.4% | 25.8% | 0.19 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 10.6% | 18.5% | 0.44 | 50.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.6% | 17.1% | 0.57 | 55.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 16.8% | 18.4% | 0.74 | 18.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.8% | 19.5% | 0.39 | 10.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.6% | 18.9% | 0.03 | 60.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 15.8% | 53.4% | 0.47 | 20.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AGNC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGNC | 6.5% | 25.4% | 0.27 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 13.5% | 22.0% | 0.56 | 49.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 51.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.2% | 16.1% | 0.57 | 18.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 17.9% | 0.33 | 17.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 57.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.7% | 66.2% | 0.99 | 16.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 7/23/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/20/2026 | -1.3% | ||
| 4/20/2026 | 1.3% | 3.1% | -4.9% |
| 1/26/2026 | 3.1% | -4.4% | -3.4% |
| 10/20/2025 | -0.5% | 2.0% | 1.3% |
| 7/21/2025 | 1.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% |
| 4/21/2025 | 3.6% | 10.5% | 14.1% |
| 1/27/2025 | 0.8% | 2.9% | 8.6% |
| 10/21/2024 | -3.6% | -7.1% | -5.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 16 | 14 |
| # Negative | 9 | 8 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 1.7% | 3.0% | 8.1% |
| Median Negative | -1.2% | -2.5% | -5.0% |
| Max Positive | 7.1% | 20.2% | 30.7% |
| Max Negative | -3.6% | -7.1% | -10.6% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/20/2026 | -1.3% | ||
| 4/20/2026 | 1.3% | 3.1% | -4.9% |
| 1/26/2026 | 3.1% | -4.4% | -3.4% |
| 10/20/2025 | -0.5% | 2.0% | 1.3% |
| 7/21/2025 | 1.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% |
| 4/21/2025 | 3.6% | 10.5% | 14.1% |
| 1/27/2025 | 0.8% | 2.9% | 8.6% |
| 10/21/2024 | -3.6% | -7.1% | -5.7% |
| 7/22/2024 | 0.7% | -1.5% | -0.1% |
| 4/22/2024 | 1.8% | 1.7% | 8.8% |
| 1/22/2024 | 0.5% | 2.3% | -1.1% |
| 10/30/2023 | 6.3% | 20.2% | 30.7% |
| 7/24/2023 | 1.4% | 0.5% | -6.7% |
| 4/24/2023 | -3.0% | -3.6% | -9.2% |
| 1/30/2023 | 2.8% | 2.0% | -5.1% |
| 10/24/2022 | 3.8% | 9.5% | 26.6% |
| 7/25/2022 | -1.2% | 4.3% | 1.4% |
| 5/2/2022 | 7.1% | 9.5% | 9.7% |
| 1/31/2022 | -1.4% | -3.8% | -10.6% |
| 10/25/2021 | -0.2% | -1.5% | -2.4% |
| 7/26/2021 | 0.0% | -1.0% | 2.2% |
| 4/26/2021 | 2.2% | 4.3% | 7.5% |
| 1/25/2021 | -0.6% | -1.5% | 2.8% |
| 10/26/2020 | 1.1% | 0.1% | 12.4% |
| 7/27/2020 | -1.0% | 1.1% | 4.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 16 | 14 |
| # Negative | 9 | 8 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 1.7% | 3.0% | 8.1% |
| Median Negative | -1.2% | -2.5% | -5.0% |
| Max Positive | 7.1% | 20.2% | 30.7% |
| Max Negative | -3.6% | -7.1% | -10.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/23/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/23/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/23/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/07/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/26/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/11/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/25/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/05/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/05/2019 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Updated 5/14/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bell, Bernice | EVP, CFO | Direct | Sell | 5142026 | 10.79 | 10,000 | 107,920 | 4,387,601 | Form |
| 2 | Blank, Donna | Direct | Sell | 5072026 | 10.78 | 22,000 | 237,050 | 1,039,476 | Form | |
| 3 | Mullings, Paul E | Direct | Sell | 5052026 | 10.74 | 6,800 | 73,032 | 1,609,776 | Form | |
| 4 | Federico, Peter J | Director, President, CEO, CIO | Direct | Sell | 4282026 | 11.08 | 64,412 | 713,621 | 21,350,151 | Form |
| 5 | Federico, Peter J | Director, President, CEO, CIO | Direct | Sell | 4282026 | 11.03 | 64,411 | 710,389 | 21,964,197 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bell, Bernice | EVP, CFO | Direct | Sell | 5142026 | 10.79 | 10,000 | 107,920 | 4,387,601 | Form |
| 2 | Blank, Donna | Direct | Sell | 5072026 | 10.78 | 22,000 | 237,050 | 1,039,476 | Form | |
| 3 | Mullings, Paul E | Direct | Sell | 5052026 | 10.74 | 6,800 | 73,032 | 1,609,776 | Form | |
| 4 | Federico, Peter J | Director, President, CEO, CIO | Direct | Sell | 4282026 | 11.08 | 64,412 | 713,621 | 21,350,151 | Form |
| 5 | Federico, Peter J | Director, President, CEO, CIO | Direct | Sell | 4282026 | 11.03 | 64,411 | 710,389 | 21,964,197 | Form |
| 6 | Federico, Peter J | Director, President, CEO, CIO | Direct | Sell | 4282026 | 10.91 | 64,411 | 702,595 | 22,425,821 | Form |
| 7 | Bell, Bernice | EVP, CFO | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 11.36 | 15,000 | 170,400 | 4,172,869 | Form |
| 8 | Bell, Bernice | EVP, CFO | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 11.29 | 35,397 | 399,636 | 4,316,506 | Form |
| 9 | Kain, Gary D | Director, Executive Chair | Direct | Sell | 1302026 | 11.91 | 700,000 | 8,336,300 | 26,069,886 | Form |
| 10 | Bell, Bernice | EVP, CFO | Direct | Sell | 1302026 | 12.14 | 25,000 | 303,500 | 5,969,582 | Form |
| 11 | Pollack, Kenneth L | EVP and General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 1302026 | 12.11 | 50,000 | 605,500 | 6,688,317 | Form |
| 12 | Bell, Bernice | EVP, CFO | Direct | Sell | 11102025 | 10.32 | 10,000 | 103,200 | 3,505,903 | Form |
| 13 | Bell, Bernice | EVP, CFO | Direct | Sell | 11102025 | 10.21 | 10,000 | 102,150 | 3,572,383 | Form |
| 14 | Federico, Peter J | Director, Pres., CEO and CIO | Direct | Sell | 10282025 | 10.30 | 45,798 | 471,609 | 15,565,882 | Form |
| 15 | Federico, Peter J | Director, Pres., CEO and CIO | Direct | Sell | 10282025 | 10.27 | 45,798 | 470,208 | 15,989,835 | Form |
| 16 | Federico, Peter J | Director, Pres., CEO and CIO | Direct | Sell | 10282025 | 10.16 | 45,797 | 465,160 | 16,283,691 | Form |
| 17 | Bell, Bernice | EVP, CFO | Direct | Sell | 8122025 | 9.46 | 31,500 | 297,990 | 3,350,697 | Form |
| 18 | Fisk, John D | Direct | Sell | 7292025 | 9.65 | 20,278 | 195,683 | 1,087,410 | Form | |
| 19 | Mullings, Paul E | Direct | Sell | 7292025 | 9.61 | 11,000 | 105,721 | 1,235,119 | Form | |
| 20 | Blank, Donna | Direct | Sell | 5072025 | 8.67 | 17,218 | 149,280 | 783,291 | Form | |
| 21 | Mullings, Paul E | Direct | Sell | 5052025 | 8.84 | 13,500 | 119,394 | 1,195,231 | Form | |
| 22 | Bell, Bernice | EVP, CFO | Direct | Sell | 5012025 | 8.88 | 8,000 | 71,004 | 3,319,608 | Form |
| 23 | Bell, Bernice | EVP, CFO | Direct | Sell | 5012025 | 9.06 | 10,000 | 90,600 | 3,461,095 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 24, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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