Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.0%, FCF Yield is 5.9%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -1.7%, Dist 3Y High is -1.7%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 11x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 63%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 63%
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -3.8%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -24%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -28%
  Key risks
AGNC key risks include [1] its business model's high sensitivity to interest rate and spread fluctuations, Show more.
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 21%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Global Financial Markets Evolution. Themes include Mortgage Market Dynamics, Securitized Real Estate Investment, and Financial Market Volatility & Hedging.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.0%, FCF Yield is 5.9%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 63%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 63%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -28%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 21%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Global Financial Markets Evolution. Themes include Mortgage Market Dynamics, Securitized Real Estate Investment, and Financial Market Volatility & Hedging.
5 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -1.7%, Dist 3Y High is -1.7%
6 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -3.8%
7 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 11x
8 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -24%
9 Key risks
AGNC key risks include [1] its business model's high sensitivity to interest rate and spread fluctuations, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AGNC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the approximate 10.9% stock movement for AGNC Investment (AGNC) from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025: 1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Performance. AGNC Investment Corp. announced robust third-quarter 2025 results on October 20, 2025, including a 10.6% economic return on tangible common equity and a 6.0% increase in tangible net book value per common share to $8.28. This strong performance, driven by tighter mortgage spreads to benchmark rates, generally signals financial health and can positively influence investor sentiment and stock value.

2. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts. The Federal Reserve implemented three interest rate cuts during the latter half of 2025, including a quarter-point reduction in December that brought the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Such rate reductions are typically favorable for mortgage REITs like AGNC, as they can lead to lower borrowing costs and a more supportive environment for mortgage-backed securities, thereby enhancing the company's profitability and investment appeal.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AGNC Return-2%5%-22%10%9%29%25%
Peers Return-18%21%-17%23%-1%19%19%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AGNC Win Rate75%58%42%42%67%75% 
Peers Win Rate55%57%52%55%57%53% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AGNC Max Drawdown-46%-2%-46%-25%-5%-9% 
Peers Max Drawdown-68%-5%-30%-15%-12%-5% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NLY, STWD, BXMT, RITM, ARI. See AGNC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAGNCS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-60.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven153.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-52.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven109.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-32.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven48.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-31.0%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven45.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven109 days1480 days

Compare to ADC, BRX, FR, VNO, KRC


In The Past

AGNC Investment's stock fell -60.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2021. A -60.6% loss requires a 153.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About AGNC Investment (AGNC)

Better Bets than AGNC Investment (AGNC)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AGNC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.1%5.1%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.4%-2.4%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.6%4.6%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.0%-9.0%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.1%5.1%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.4%-2.4%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.6%4.6%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.0%-9.0%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for AGNC Investment

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AGNCNLYSTWDBXMTRITMARIMedian
NameAGNC Inv.Annaly C.Starwood.Blacksto.Rithm Ca.Apollo C. 
Mkt Price10.4422.4318.5020.3111.1510.1414.82
Mkt Cap11.014.77.03.56.01.46.5
Rev LTM9561,7037675082,981274861
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM6041,953714224-2,93656414
FCF 3Y Avg1961,260303365-1,260105249
CFO LTM6042,857785224-2,931184414
CFO 3Y Avg1961,976344365-1,216217281

Growth & Margins

AGNCNLYSTWDBXMTRITMARIMedian
NameAGNC Inv.Annaly C.Starwood.Blacksto.Rithm Ca.Apollo C. 
Rev Chg LTM-24.1%473.5%-27.4%-4.6%25.7%36.3%10.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg108.3%143.3%-16.5%-4.5%-3.7%-5.8%-4.1%
Rev Chg Q122.3%637.1%-13.2%21.1%45.4%221.0%83.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM92.7%81.6%-3.9%4.8%8.0%76.6%42.3%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM63.2%167.8%102.3%44.1%-98.3%67.2%65.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg21.0%-41.6%61.8%-41.9%93.3%41.6%
FCF/Rev LTM63.2%114.7%93.1%44.1%-98.5%20.5%53.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg21.0%-36.8%61.8%-43.8%44.6%36.8%

Valuation

AGNCNLYSTWDBXMTRITMARIMedian
NameAGNC Inv.Annaly C.Starwood.Blacksto.Rithm Ca.Apollo C. 
Mkt Cap11.014.77.03.56.01.46.5
P/S10.87.89.16.22.15.17.0
P/EBIT-------
P/E12.38.919.029.57.010.211.2
P/CFO17.14.68.914.1-2.17.68.3
Total Yield8.1%11.3%14.6%13.6%14.4%19.8%14.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%9.4%10.2%0.0%10.0%4.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.9%11.4%-10.6%-19.8%7.5%7.5%
D/E0.02.2-5.05.35.35.0
Net D/E-0.02.2-4.93.65.23.6

Returns

AGNCNLYSTWDBXMTRITMARIMedian
NameAGNC Inv.Annaly C.Starwood.Blacksto.Rithm Ca.Apollo C. 
1M Rtn4.6%4.3%4.9%10.7%2.7%4.2%4.5%
3M Rtn6.0%6.0%-6.5%7.7%-8.5%-1.1%2.4%
6M Rtn21.4%25.5%-3.2%10.5%4.0%8.8%9.6%
12M Rtn26.7%32.6%2.8%20.4%10.4%24.4%22.4%
3Y Rtn60.9%58.6%30.6%27.2%86.0%30.9%44.8%
1M Excs Rtn3.8%3.6%4.2%10.0%1.9%3.4%3.7%
3M Excs Rtn5.8%5.6%-8.0%5.8%-8.6%-4.0%0.8%
6M Excs Rtn9.0%13.2%-15.6%-1.9%-8.4%-3.6%-2.8%
12M Excs Rtn15.5%19.5%-9.8%5.3%-1.4%11.9%8.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-3.8%-13.1%-45.3%-49.3%-0.5%-43.3%-28.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment251-1,116837-173771
Total251-1,116837-173771


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity61,562,122
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520252.3%
Average Daily Volume24,037,378
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.56
Basic Shares Quantity1,053,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares5.8%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/20/2025-0.5%2.0%1.3%
7/21/20251.5%4.9%5.4%
4/21/20253.6%10.5%14.1%
1/27/20250.8%2.9%8.6%
10/21/2024-3.6%-7.1%-5.7%
7/22/20240.7%-1.5%-0.1%
4/22/20241.8%1.7%8.8%
1/22/20240.5%2.3%-1.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive151716
# Negative1089
Median Positive1.8%3.3%8.1%
Median Negative-1.1%-2.5%-5.7%
Max Positive10.9%10.5%17.9%
Max Negative-7.0%-12.9%-10.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251031202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025801202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025502202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024221202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241101202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024805202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023222202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231106202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023508202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221107202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021223202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Bell BerniceEVP, CFO11102025Sell10.2110,000102,1503,572,383Form