Tearsheet

Affirm (AFRM)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $69.7 | Market Cap: $24.3 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software

Affirm (AFRM)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $69.7
Market Cap: $24.3 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Systems Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 109x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 51%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, and Online Banking & Lending.
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.2%
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, and Online Banking & Lending.
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 109x
4 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 51%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.2%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AFRM Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

For the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, Affirm (AFRM) experienced a stock movement of approximately -21.3% due to several key factors: 1. Significant Share Price Decline. Affirm's stock saw a substantial downturn, with its share price declining by 24% over the three months leading up to early December 2025, closely aligning with the requested -21.3% movement.

2. Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions. Several analysts revised their outlooks on Affirm, with Royal Bank of Canada cutting its target price from $97.00 to $87.00 and issuing a "sector perform" rating in November 2025. Additionally, Zacks Research lowered its rating for Affirm from "strong-buy" to "hold" in August 2025.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AFRM Return---90%408%24%10%-33%
Peers Return13%46%-18%24%13%10%107%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AFRM Win Rate-36%25%67%33%60% 
Peers Win Rate46%54%31%40%40%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AFRM Max Drawdown---91%-7%-51%-41% 
Peers Max Drawdown-37%-4%-27%-13%-9%-11% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: OMF, SLM, CACC, CHOW, ECST.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAFRMS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-94.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1791.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to OMF, SLM, CACC, CHOW, ECST


In The Past

Affirm's stock fell -94.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/4/2021. A -94.7% loss requires a 1791.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Affirm (AFRM)

Better Bets than Affirm (AFRM)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AFRM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Affirm

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AFRMOMFSLMCACCCHOWECSTMedian
NameAffirm OneMain SLM Credit A.ChowChow.ECST  
Mkt Price69.6464.7929.97474.419.80-64.79
Mkt Cap24.37.76.25.3--7.0
Rev LTM3,4594,8691,9202,272--2,866
Op Inc LTM540--570--555
FCF LTM7693,019-3301,090--929
FCF 3Y Avg3612,716-2701,135--748
CFO LTM9723,019-3301,092--1,032
CFO 3Y Avg5272,716-2701,138--832

Growth & Margins

AFRMOMFSLMCACCCHOWECSTMedian
NameAffirm OneMain SLM Credit A.ChowChow.ECST  
Rev Chg LTM37.0%9.3%1.0%10.2%--9.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg34.4%5.2%-0.8%7.6%--6.4%
Rev Chg Q33.6%9.5%42.1%6.0%--21.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM7.3%2.3%9.2%1.5%--4.8%
Op Mgn LTM15.6%--25.1%--20.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-13.4%--19.6%--3.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM5.1%--1.6%--3.3%
CFO/Rev LTM28.1%62.0%-17.2%48.0%--38.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg17.8%60.0%-14.4%55.7%--36.8%
FCF/Rev LTM22.2%62.0%-17.2%48.0%--35.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg11.2%60.0%-14.4%55.6%--33.4%

Valuation

AFRMOMFSLMCACCCHOWECSTMedian
NameAffirm OneMain SLM Credit A.ChowChow.ECST  
Mkt Cap24.37.76.25.3--7.0
P/S7.41.43.02.3--2.6
P/EBIT37.8--9.2--23.5
P/E109.29.59.211.6--10.5
P/CFO26.22.2-17.44.8--3.5
Total Yield0.9%18.0%12.8%8.6%--10.7%
Dividend Yield0.0%7.5%1.9%0.0%--0.9%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.6%47.8%-5.6%20.5%--11.1%
D/E0.33.31.21.2--1.2
Net D/E0.23.20.61.2--0.9

Returns

AFRMOMFSLMCACCCHOWECSTMedian
NameAffirm OneMain SLM Credit A.ChowChow.ECST  
1M Rtn-3.4%7.4%10.0%3.8%11.4%-7.4%
3M Rtn-18.4%6.3%-2.9%-8.7%---5.8%
6M Rtn28.2%29.9%-6.1%-2.6%--12.8%
12M Rtn-1.6%22.0%15.1%-1.6%--6.8%
3Y Rtn376.3%112.3%85.7%0.0%--99.0%
1M Excs Rtn-3.4%7.5%10.0%3.8%11.4%-7.5%
3M Excs Rtn-27.7%-0.0%-11.0%-14.2%---12.6%
6M Excs Rtn13.5%15.2%-20.8%-17.3%---1.9%
12M Excs Rtn-14.1%8.3%-2.1%-18.2%---8.1%
3Y Excs Rtn380.8%49.0%18.9%-71.0%--34.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Single Segment2,3231,588   
Card network revenue  1015019
Gain on sales of loans  1969032
Interest income  528326187
Merchant network revenue  459380257
Servicing income  662515
Total2,3231,5881,349870510


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity13,822,665
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120257.3%
Average Daily Volume7,211,650
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.92
Basic Shares Quantity348,278,403
Short % of Basic Shares4.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025828202510-K 6/30/2025
3312025509202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024206202510-Q 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024828202410-K 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023208202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023825202310-K 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022208202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022829202210-K 6/30/2022
3312022513202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021214202210-Q 12/31/2021