Affirm (AFRM)
Market Price (4/3/2026): $46.3 | Market Cap: $15.5 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Consumer Finance
Affirm (AFRM)
Market Price (4/3/2026): $46.3Market Cap: $15.5 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Consumer Finance
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -43% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, and Online Banking & Lending. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -1.0% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 55x Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.3% Key risksAFRM key risks include [1] intense competitive pressure from rivals like Apple Pay Later, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -43% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, and Online Banking & Lending. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -1.0% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 55x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.3% |
| Key risksAFRM key risks include [1] intense competitive pressure from rivals like Apple Pay Later, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Affirm (AFRM) stock has lost about 40% since 12/31/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Decelerating Growth Guidance.
Despite exceeding earnings expectations for its fiscal Q2 2026, which reported revenue of $1.12 billion and GAAP EPS of $0.37 (beating estimates of $1.06 billion and $0.27, respectively), Affirm's stock experienced a decline due to projected slowdowns in Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) growth for upcoming quarters. The company's guidance indicated GMV growth to slow to approximately 30% in Q3 and 25% in Q4 of fiscal year 2026, a deceleration from the 36% growth reported in Q2. This outlook, suggesting a tempering of future expansion, led to investor concerns and a 4.41% drop in after-hours trading following the Q2 earnings release on February 5, 2026.
2. Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions.
Following the Q2 FY2026 earnings report and revised guidance, several prominent financial firms either downgraded Affirm's stock rating or significantly reduced their price targets, signaling a more cautious outlook. For instance, JPMorgan Chase & Co. lowered its price target from $94.00 to $79.00, Mizuho cut its target from $114.00 to $95.00, and Oppenheimer adjusted its target from $95.00 to $83.00, all on February 6, 2026. RBC Capital also decreased its price target by 11.49% from $87.00 to $77.00 on the same day. Additionally, The Goldman Sachs Group downgraded Affirm from a "buy" to a "hold" rating on February 24, 2026, and Cantor Fitzgerald sharply cut its price target to $61 from $85 in late March 2026.
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1. Decelerating Growth Guidance.
Despite exceeding earnings expectations for its fiscal Q2 2026, which reported revenue of $1.12 billion and GAAP EPS of $0.37 (beating estimates of $1.06 billion and $0.27, respectively), Affirm's stock experienced a decline due to projected slowdowns in Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) growth for upcoming quarters. The company's guidance indicated GMV growth to slow to approximately 30% in Q3 and 25% in Q4 of fiscal year 2026, a deceleration from the 36% growth reported in Q2. This outlook, suggesting a tempering of future expansion, led to investor concerns and a 4.41% drop in after-hours trading following the Q2 earnings release on February 5, 2026.
2. Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions.
Following the Q2 FY2026 earnings report and revised guidance, several prominent financial firms either downgraded Affirm's stock rating or significantly reduced their price targets, signaling a more cautious outlook. For instance, JPMorgan Chase & Co. lowered its price target from $94.00 to $79.00, Mizuho cut its target from $114.00 to $95.00, and Oppenheimer adjusted its target from $95.00 to $83.00, all on February 6, 2026. RBC Capital also decreased its price target by 11.49% from $87.00 to $77.00 on the same day. Additionally, The Goldman Sachs Group downgraded Affirm from a "buy" to a "hold" rating on February 24, 2026, and Cantor Fitzgerald sharply cut its price target to $61 from $85 in late March 2026.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -37.8% change in AFRM stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/3/2026 was primarily driven by a -50.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 74.43 | 46.30 | -37.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,459 | 3,716 | 7.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.7% | 7.6% | 12.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 111.2 | 54.8 | -50.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 348 | 334 | 4.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -37.8% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AFRM | -37.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 44.8% |
| Sector (XLF) | -9.6% | 59.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -36.6% change in AFRM stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/3/2026 was primarily driven by a -88.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 73.08 | 46.30 | -36.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,224 | 3,716 | 15.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.6% | 7.6% | 369.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 457.8 | 54.8 | -88.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 327 | 334 | -2.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -36.6% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AFRM | -36.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 52.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | -7.7% | 53.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 2.5% change in AFRM stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 32.7% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 45.19 | 46.30 | 2.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,800 | 3,716 | 32.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 5.2 | 4.2 | -19.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 322 | 334 | -3.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 2.5% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AFRM | 2.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 62.4% |
| Sector (XLF) | 0.5% | 59.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 310.8% change in AFRM stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 151.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 11.27 | 46.30 | 310.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,480 | 3,716 | 151.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.2 | 4.2 | 86.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 294 | 334 | -12.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 310.8% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AFRM | 310.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 50.8% |
| Sector (XLF) | 60.9% | 49.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AFRM Return | 3% | -90% | 408% | 24% | 22% | -39% | -53% |
| Peers Return | 71% | -68% | 47% | 272% | 13% | -18% | 179% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -4% | 75% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AFRM Win Rate | 42% | 25% | 67% | 33% | 58% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 56% | 29% | 55% | 62% | 53% | 15% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AFRM Max Drawdown | -50% | -91% | -7% | -51% | -41% | -43% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -10% | -73% | -33% | -24% | -34% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PYPL, SEZL, SHOP, BFH, UPST.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/2/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AFRM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -94.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1791.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to PYPL, SEZL, SHOP, BFH, UPST
In The Past
Affirm's stock fell -94.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/4/2021. A -94.7% loss requires a 1791.4% gain to breakeven.
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About Affirm (AFRM)
Affirm Holdings, Inc. operates a platform for digital and mobile-first commerce in the United States and Canada. The company's platform includes point-of-sale payment solution for consumers, merchant commerce solutions, and a consumer-focused app. Its payments network and partnership with an originating bank, enables consumers to pay for a purchase over time with terms ranging from one to forty-eight months. As of June 30, 2021, the company had approximately 29,000 merchants integrated on its platform covering small businesses, large enterprises, direct-to-consumer brands, brick-and-mortar stores, and companies. Its merchants represent a range of industries, including sporting goods and outdoors, furniture and homewares, travel, apparel, accessories, consumer electronics, and jewelry. The company was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Affirm (AFRM):
- It's like PayPal, but specialized in offering 'buy now, pay later' installment plans at checkout.
- It's like Carvana, but for financing purchases across a wide range of goods and services, not just vehicles.
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- Point-of-Sale Financing: Enables consumers to pay for purchases over time with flexible terms ranging from one to forty-eight months at participating merchants.
- Merchant Commerce Solutions: Provides businesses with tools and integration options to offer Affirm's payment solutions to their customers across various channels.
- Consumer-Focused App: A mobile application for consumers to manage their Affirm payments, discover merchants, and apply for financing.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Affirm's primary customers are other companies, specifically the merchants that integrate Affirm's point-of-sale payment solution into their platforms. These merchants utilize Affirm to offer their own consumers the option to pay for purchases over time.
As of June 30, 2021, Affirm had approximately 29,000 merchants integrated on its platform. The background information describes these customers broadly, covering small businesses, large enterprises, direct-to-consumer brands, brick-and-mortar stores, and companies across a range of industries including sporting goods and outdoors, furniture and homewares, travel, apparel, accessories, consumer electronics, and jewelry.
The provided background information does not list the names of specific major customer companies or their public symbols.
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Max Levchin, Founder and CEO
Max Levchin co-founded PayPal, where he served as Chief Technology Officer until its acquisition by eBay in 2002. He also founded Slide, a personal media-sharing service, which was acquired by Google in 2010 for $182 million. Levchin was an early investor and Chairman of the Board for Yelp Inc. from its founding in 2005 until 2015. Affirm was created and launched from his San Francisco-based innovation lab, HVF (Hard, Valuable, Fun).
Rob O'Hare, Chief Financial Officer
Rob O'Hare is the Chief Financial Officer of Affirm, a role he was slated to assume by the end of the fiscal year, succeeding Michael Linford. Prior to becoming CFO, he served as the Senior Vice President of Finance at Affirm.
Michael Linford, Chief Operating Officer
Michael Linford currently serves as Affirm's Chief Operating Officer, a position he transitioned to in September 2024 after serving as Chief Financial Officer from August 2018 to November 2024. Before joining Affirm, he held senior roles in finance, M&A integration, and software operations at HPE/HP, Micro Focus, KKR, and McKinsey. He spent seven years at the global investment firm KKR & Co. as a Principal, where he provided strategic and tactical support to a diverse portfolio of companies. Linford was also instrumental in guiding Affirm through its successful initial public offering in January 2021.
Libor Michalek, President
Libor Michalek is the President of Affirm, overseeing engineering, risk, operations, product, and design. His previous roles at Affirm include President of Technology and Chief Technology Officer. Prior to Affirm, he was an Engineering Director at YouTube and Google, and earlier in his career, he served as the Chief Technology Officer of Slide, which was acquired by Google in 2010.
Katherine Adkins, Chief Legal Officer and Chief Compliance Officer
Katherine Adkins has been Affirm's Chief Legal Officer and Chief Compliance Officer since July 2021. Before this, she held positions as Vice President, Legal and Bank Strategy and Deputy General Counsel, Legal Platforms at Affirm from 2019 to July 2021. Her extensive experience includes serving as Group Vice President, General Counsel, and Secretary of Toyota Financial Services from 2009 to 2019.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Affirm's business are:- Credit Risk and Economic Downturn: Affirm's business is highly susceptible to consumer credit performance and discretionary spending behavior, with a significant exposure to subprime and near-prime consumer segments, which can lead to elevated credit risk. There is evidence that U.S. consumers are taking on record debt levels, heightening the risk of default on discretionary purchases financed through Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) loans. The company's growth strategy involves extending credit to borrowers with lower credit scores and encouraging repeat users to finance essential items, which some analysts view as extracting more borrowing from the same customers rather than expanding its user base. This strategy, coupled with thin credit reserves (approximately 1% of Gross Merchandise Volume), leaves Affirm vulnerable to rising credit losses as labor conditions normalize or during an economic downturn.
- Regulatory Scrutiny and Changes: The BNPL industry, including Affirm, faces increasing regulatory scrutiny. States such as New York are moving to license and oversee BNPL providers, which could lead to tighter margins and increased compliance costs. Furthermore, political attention on curbing high-cost consumer credit, such as proposals to cap credit card interest rates, poses a direct threat to Affirm's revenue model, especially given its average loan yield can be significantly higher than traditional credit cards. There are also concerns that Affirm's use of a "rent-a-bank" structure to bypass state-level interest rate caps could face challenges, and the absence of consolidated Federal Reserve supervision, if an Industrial Loan Company (ILC) charter is granted, raises questions about regulatory oversight of its entire corporate structure.
- Intense Competition and Merchant Concentration: Affirm operates in an increasingly competitive BNPL market, with numerous players including PayPal, Block/Afterpay, Klarna, and Apple Pay Later vying for market share. This intense competition puts pressure on Affirm's merchant fees and overall profitability, as merchants have more alternatives and can negotiate for lower fees or switch providers. To remain attractive, Affirm has been incentivized to offer more 0% APR financing, which can reduce its revenue per transaction and profit margins. Additionally, a significant portion of Affirm's Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) comes from a few large retail partners, leading to merchant concentration risk. The loss of, or reduced volume from, any major partner could materially impact Affirm's growth and financial performance.
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The launch and ongoing rollout of Apple Pay Later poses a clear emerging threat. Apple, leveraging its vast ecosystem and user base, now offers an integrated buy now, pay later (BNPL) solution directly within Apple Pay. This directly competes with Affirm's core point-of-sale payment offering, potentially shifting consumer preference towards Apple's native solution due to convenience and trust within their established platform.
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Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) operates in the Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) and point-of-sale financing markets in the United States and Canada. The addressable markets for its main products and services are substantial within these regions.United States
The Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) services market in the United States was valued at approximately USD 170.32 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 423.08 billion by 2031, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.39% during the forecast period (2026-2031). Another estimate placed the U.S. BNPL payment market at US$127.94 billion in 2026, growing at a CAGR of 15.1% from 2026-2031. Additionally, the U.S. BNPL market was valued at approximately USD 33.2 billion in 2023, expected to reach USD 36.4 billion in 2024, and projected to hit around USD 145.7 billion by 2033, demonstrating a CAGR of about 21.3% from 2024 to 2033. Affirm also positions its BNPL solution as a replacement for the revolving debt market, which it targets as a significant addressable market estimated at $1.1 trillion to $1.2 trillion. The broader Point-of-Sale (POS) market in North America, where Affirm's solutions are integrated, was valued at USD 41.54 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to grow to USD 79.18 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 7.43% from 2026 to 2034. Within the U.S. specifically, the POS market size was valued at USD 4.97 billion in 2022 and is projected to grow from USD 5.61 billion in 2023 to USD 13.49 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 13.3%.Canada
For Canada, the Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) payment market is expected to grow by 16.5% annually to reach US$9.53 billion in 2026. It is projected to expand from a value of USD 8.18 billion in 2025 to approximately USD 16.76 billion by 2031, with a CAGR of 12.0% from 2026-2031. Other estimates indicate the Canadian BNPL market stood at USD 377.78 million in 2025 and is projected to climb to USD 947.12 million by 2030, advancing at a 20.18% CAGR. Another report stated the market reached USD 226.7 million in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 1,051.6 million by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 17.85% during 2026-2034. Additionally, the Canada BNPL market generated a revenue of USD 315.0 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 3,035.4 million by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 28.9% from 2025 to 2033. The point-of-sale terminal market in Canada generated a revenue of USD 6,197.2 million in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 11,402.5 million by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 7.9% from 2026 to 2033.AI Analysis | Feedback
Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
- Expansion of Merchant Network and Strategic Partnerships: Affirm continues to broaden its merchant base and deepen existing relationships with major retailers and payment platforms. Recent highlights include the extension of its U.S. agreement with Amazon for an additional five years through January 2031. The company is also integrating with major payment platforms like Apple Pay, and has established partnerships with large retailers such as Walmart, Target, Peloton, Costco, and World Market. These strategic alliances and the addition of new merchant partners, including those in new verticals like services and auto repair, are crucial for increasing Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) and consumer reach.
- Product Innovation and Diversification, particularly the Affirm Card: The Affirm Card is identified as a primary growth driver, demonstrating significant year-over-year increases in GMV and active cardholders. Affirm is proactively diversifying its product offerings to cater to evolving consumer needs, introducing options like "Pay in 2" and "Pay in 30" and expanding into everyday spending categories such as groceries, fuel, travel, and subscriptions. Technological advancements, including AI-powered underwriting and enhanced platform features, also underpin the ability to offer flexible and transparent payment solutions and improve merchant conversion rates.
- International Expansion: Affirm is actively pursuing geographical expansion to new markets. The company has concrete plans for international market entry, beginning with the U.K., and further expansion into Australia and key Western European markets including France, Germany, and the Netherlands. This global reach will extend Affirm's customer base and transaction volume beyond its established presence in the United States and Canada.
- Growth in Active Consumers and Repeat Usage: A significant portion of Affirm's transactions comes from repeat borrowers, with 95% of transactions in the fiscal fourth quarter ended June 30, 2025, being from existing customers. The active consumer base expanded to 25.8 million, up 23% from the previous year, with transactions per active consumer rising by 20% to 6.4 in Q2 2026. This indicates strong customer retention and increasing engagement, driving higher transaction frequency and overall platform usage.
- Robust Capital Partnerships and Funding Capacity: Affirm's ability to secure significant funding capacity is vital for supporting its loan originations and GMV growth. The company has established strategic capital partnerships, including a $3 billion loan facility from PGIM Fixed Income and a long-term capital partnership with Sixth Street to invest up to $4 billion, enabling the extension of up to $20 billion in loans over three years. This strong funding position ensures Affirm can continue to scale its operations and meet growing consumer demand.
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<h3>Share Repurchases</h3>
<ul>
<li>Affirm announced a plan to repurchase approximately $250 million of its Class A common stock concurrently with a convertible notes offering in December 2024.</li>
<li>Annual share buybacks for Affirm were reported as $250 million in 2025 and $109,000 in 2023.</li>
</ul>
<h3>Share Issuance</h3>
<ul>
<li>Affirm raised approximately $1.2 billion through its Initial Public Offering (IPO) on January 13, 2021.</li>
<li>In November 2021, Affirm priced an upsized private offering of $1.5 billion in 0% Convertible Senior Notes due 2026.</li>
<li>Affirm priced an $800 million private offering of 0.75% Convertible Senior Notes due 2029 in December 2024.</li>
</ul>
<h3>Inbound Investments</h3>
<ul>
<li>In December 2024, Affirm and Sixth Street formed a long-term capital partnership for Sixth Street to invest up to $4 billion by purchasing Affirm loans via a three-year forward-flow agreement.</li>
<li>New York Life expanded its capital partnership with Affirm in October 2025, committing to purchase up to $750 million in installment loans on a forward-flow basis through December 2026, which can support an estimated $1.75 billion in annual consumer loan volume.</li>
<li>In June 2025, Affirm and PGIM expanded their partnership with a new revolving pass-through loan sale facility that will invest up to $3 billion over 36 months.</li>
</ul>
<h3>Outbound Investments</h3>
<ul>
<li>Affirm acquired Returnly, a returns management solution, in April 2021 for $300 million.</li>
<li>In December 2020, Affirm acquired PayBright for $263 million.</li>
</ul>
<h3>Capital Expenditures</h3>
<ul>
<li>Affirm's capital expenditures margin averaged 5.8% for fiscal years ending June 2021 to 2025.</li>
<li>Capital expenditures are forecasted to be $252.2 million for fiscal year 2026 and $271.6 million for 2027.</li>
<li>Capital expenditures peaked at 7.6% in June 2023 and reached a 5-year low of 2.3% in June 2021.</li>
</ul>Latest Trefis Analyses
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Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 55.09 |
| Mkt Cap | 9.4 |
| Rev LTM | 3,780 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,276 |
| FCF LTM | 1,313 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 962 |
| CFO LTM | 1,433 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,062 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 31.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 21.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 30.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 7.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 18.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 20.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 9.4 |
| P/S | 3.3 |
| P/EBIT | 17.3 |
| P/E | 31.4 |
| P/CFO | 8.5 |
| Total Yield | 4.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.2% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -8.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -23.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -30.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 31.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 153.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -20.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -24.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -5.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 102.2% |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $46.31 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 15.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/13/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -49.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $52.36 | $68.33 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -11.5% | -32.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 61.6% | 67.9% |
| Downside Capture | 1.70 | 1.59 |
| Upside Capture | 96.32 | 215.59 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 43.9% | 62.0% |
AFRM Betas & Captures as of 3/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.40 | 2.12 | 2.14 | 2.50 | 2.31 | 2.69 |
| Up Beta | 3.73 | -1.41 | 0.61 | 1.42 | 2.29 | 2.35 |
| Down Beta | 3.01 | 3.44 | 2.83 | 3.24 | 2.35 | 2.58 |
| Up Capture | 245% | 149% | 91% | 198% | 395% | 18769% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 31 | 60 | 133 | 383 |
| Down Capture | 160% | 246% | 252% | 215% | 159% | 113% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 20 | 32 | 66 | 118 | 364 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AFRM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFRM | -2.3% | 70.4% | 0.26 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 0.6% | 19.2% | -0.09 | 59.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.1% | 19.0% | 0.67 | 62.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 50.5% | 28.0% | 1.46 | -4.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 16.2% | 17.7% | 0.77 | 15.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.6% | 16.5% | 0.04 | 36.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -21.5% | 44.0% | -0.42 | 27.9% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AFRM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFRM | -8.6% | 96.6% | 0.34 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 9.4% | 18.7% | 0.39 | 44.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.6% | 17.0% | 0.53 | 55.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.7% | 17.8% | 1.00 | 3.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.6% | 18.8% | 0.51 | 11.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.3% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 43.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 3.9% | 56.5% | 0.29 | 30.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AFRM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFRM | -7.5% | 96.6% | 0.28 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 12.6% | 22.2% | 0.52 | 42.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 54.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.0% | 15.9% | 0.73 | 4.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 12.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 42.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.2% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 30.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/5/2026 | -4.0% | -16.3% | -14.5% |
| 11/6/2025 | 11.6% | 10.9% | 3.7% |
| 8/28/2025 | 10.6% | 9.2% | -4.3% |
| 5/8/2025 | -14.5% | -4.6% | 13.0% |
| 2/6/2025 | 21.8% | 28.4% | -24.9% |
| 11/7/2024 | -4.7% | 9.1% | 41.1% |
| 8/28/2024 | 31.9% | 25.5% | 30.3% |
| 5/8/2024 | -9.5% | -4.2% | -10.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 11 | 9 |
| # Negative | 12 | 9 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 25.3% | 19.4% | 41.1% |
| Median Negative | -10.5% | -15.6% | -24.9% |
| Max Positive | 34.4% | 50.7% | 93.3% |
| Max Negative | -22.6% | -35.8% | -55.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/25/2023 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/29/2022 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/13/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 2/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 GMV | 11.00 Bil | 11.12 Bil | 11.25 Bil | ||||
| Q4 2026 GMV | 12.75 Bil | 12.90 Bil | 13.05 Bil | ||||
| Q3 2026 Revenue | 970.00 Mil | 985.00 Mil | 1.00 Bil | ||||
| Q4 2026 Revenue | 1.06 Bil | 1.07 Bil | 1.09 Bil | ||||
| Q3 2026 Operating Margin | 4.5% | 5.25% | 6.0% | ||||
| Q4 2026 Operating Margin | 8.5% | 9.5% | 10.5% | ||||
| 2026 GMV | 48.30 Bil | 48.58 Bil | 48.85 Bil | 2.3% | Raised | Guidance: 47.50 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue | 4.09 Bil | 4.12 Bil | 4.15 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Operating Margin | 7.7% | 8.15% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 0.6% | Raised | Guidance: 7.5% for 2026 |
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 11/6/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 GMV | 13.00 Bil | 13.15 Bil | 13.30 Bil | 28.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 10.25 Bil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | 1.03 Bil | 1.04 Bil | 1.06 Bil | 20.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 870.00 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Operating Margin | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 275.0% | 5.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 2.0% for Q1 2026 |
| 2026 GMV | 47.50 Bil | 3.3% | Raised | Guidance: 46.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Operating Margin | 7.5% | 25.0% | 1.5% | Raised | Guidance: 6.0% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Adjusted Operating Margin | 27.1% | 3.8% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 26.1% for 2026 | ||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | O'Hare, Robert | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 12052025 | 70.00 | 8,189 | 573,230 | 95,760 | Form |
| 2 | Levchin, Max R | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 9242025 | 89.27 | 651,713 | Form | ||
| 3 | Jiyane, Siphelele | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 9152025 | 85.42 | 12,500 | 1,067,750 | 18,277,061 | Form |
| 4 | Jiyane, Siphelele | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 9082025 | 90.71 | 25,533 | 2,316,098 | 20,542,822 | Form |
| 5 | Adkins, Katherine | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 9032025 | 95.00 | 36,878 | 3,503,410 | 10,773,000 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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