Tearsheet

Affirm (AFRM)


Market Price (12/17/2025): $73.48 | Market Cap: $25.6 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software

Affirm (AFRM)


Market Price (12/17/2025): $73.48
Market Cap: $25.6 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Systems Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 109x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 51%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, and Online Banking & Lending.
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.2%
3  Key risks
AFRM key risks include [1] intense competitive pressure from rivals like Apple Pay Later, Show more.
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, and Online Banking & Lending.
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 109x
4 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 51%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.2%
6 Key risks
AFRM key risks include [1] intense competitive pressure from rivals like Apple Pay Later, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AFRM Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

I cannot fulfill this request. The specified time period (August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025) is in the future. As an AI, I do not have access to future stock market data or events.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AFRM Return-90%408%24%21%
Peers Return272%20%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AFRM Win Rate36%25%67%33%58% 
Peers Win Rate57%62%55% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AFRM Max Drawdown-91%-7%-51%-41% 
Peers Max Drawdown-24%-34% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PYPL, SEZL, SHOP, BFH, UPST.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAFRMS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-94.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1791.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to OMF, SLM, CACC, CHOW, ECST


In The Past

Affirm's stock fell -94.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/4/2021. A -94.7% loss requires a 1791.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Affirm (AFRM)

Better Bets than Affirm (AFRM)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AFRM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
10.4%10.4%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.7%10.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.2%12.2%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
4.2%4.2%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
13.6%13.6%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
10.4%10.4%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.7%10.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.2%12.2%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
4.2%4.2%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
13.6%13.6%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Affirm

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AFRMPYPLSEZLSHOPBFHUPSTMedian
NameAffirm PayPal Sezzle Shopify Bread Fi.Upstart  
Mkt Price72.0360.1970.38161.7476.2845.0871.21
Mkt Cap25.157.22.4210.33.54.414.7
Rev LTM3,45932,86241910,6963,7959593,627
Op Inc LTM5406,2961391,681--1,111
FCF LTM7695,565541,9032,003-3851,336
FCF 3Y Avg3615,265221,2951,946-153828
CFO LTM9726,426571,9232,003-3671,447
CFO 3Y Avg5275,972241,3221,956-139924

Growth & Margins

AFRMPYPLSEZLSHOPBFHUPSTMedian
NameAffirm PayPal Sezzle Shopify Bread Fi.Upstart  
Rev Chg LTM37.0%4.5%88.7%30.2%-3.4%73.6%33.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg34.4%6.7%-26.8%1.5%10.8%10.8%
Rev Chg Q33.6%7.3%67.0%31.5%-1.2%70.9%32.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM7.3%1.8%12.6%6.8%-0.3%13.6%7.0%
Op Mgn LTM15.6%19.2%33.1%15.7%--17.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-13.4%17.9%18.7%7.6%--12.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM5.1%0.1%-0.4%0.4%--0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM28.1%19.6%13.5%18.0%52.8%-38.3%18.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg17.8%19.0%6.2%14.9%49.0%-16.7%16.3%
FCF/Rev LTM22.2%16.9%12.9%17.8%52.8%-40.2%17.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg11.2%16.8%5.5%14.5%48.7%-18.8%12.8%

Valuation

AFRMPYPLSEZLSHOPBFHUPSTMedian
NameAffirm PayPal Sezzle Shopify Bread Fi.Upstart  
Mkt Cap25.157.22.4210.33.54.414.7
P/S7.41.96.518.10.75.15.8
P/EBIT37.89.819.6114.9--28.7
P/E109.213.023.5108.55.5152.666.0
P/CFO26.29.948.0100.51.3-13.418.1
Total Yield0.9%7.7%4.3%0.9%19.8%0.7%2.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.6%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.6%7.5%0.0%1.1%89.8%-4.3%1.3%
D/E0.30.20.00.01.50.40.2
Net D/E0.20.00.0-0.0-0.10.30.0

Returns

AFRMPYPLSEZLSHOPBFHUPSTMedian
NameAffirm PayPal Sezzle Shopify Bread Fi.Upstart  
1M Rtn5.7%-2.7%38.1%15.6%27.2%25.0%20.3%
3M Rtn-20.3%-12.1%-20.5%9.4%23.8%-33.8%-16.2%
6M Rtn16.8%-12.0%-50.8%52.6%45.6%-23.7%2.4%
12M Rtn1.6%-33.6%34.0%35.4%18.9%-45.7%10.3%
3Y Rtn611.8%-12.9%-348.2%112.3%193.8%193.8%
1M Excs Rtn4.9%-3.5%37.3%14.9%26.4%24.2%19.5%
3M Excs Rtn-21.2%-13.3%-22.7%5.0%18.2%-35.1%-17.3%
6M Excs Rtn4.4%-24.4%-63.2%40.2%33.3%-36.1%-10.0%
12M Excs Rtn-9.2%-44.8%25.5%30.0%7.5%-57.7%-0.8%
3Y Excs Rtn418.7%-86.7%-253.0%41.6%91.2%91.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Single Segment2,3231,588   
Card network revenue  1015019
Gain on sales of loans  1969032
Interest income  528326187
Merchant network revenue  459380257
Servicing income  662515
Total2,3231,5881,349870510


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity15,266,385
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202510.4%
Average Daily Volume4,864,692
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.14
Basic Shares Quantity348,278,403
Short % of Basic Shares4.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/6/202511.6%10.9%3.7%
8/28/202510.6%9.2%-4.3%
5/8/2025-14.5%-4.6%13.0%
2/6/202521.8%28.4%-24.9%
11/7/2024-4.7%9.1%41.1%
8/28/202431.9%25.5%30.3%
5/8/2024-9.5%-4.2%-10.6%
2/8/2024-10.9%-15.6%-24.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive8119
# Negative11810
Median Positive25.3%19.4%41.1%
Median Negative-10.9%-13.4%-25.3%
Max Positive34.4%50.7%93.3%
Max Negative-22.6%-35.8%-55.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025828202510-K 6/30/2025
3312025509202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024206202510-Q 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024828202410-K 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023208202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023825202310-K 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022208202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022829202210-K 6/30/2022
3312022513202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021214202210-Q 12/31/2021