Block (XYZ)
Market Price (11/10/2026): $88.66 | Market Cap: $53.6 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Financials | Industry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Block (XYZ)
Market Price (11/10/2026): $88.66Market Cap: $53.6 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 3.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.5 Bil Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.5% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 4.4 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 48% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Crypto & Blockchain. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0% Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -7.3% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 19x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 116x Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.5% Key risksXYZ key risks include [1] federal scrutiny and class-action lawsuits over alleged widespread compliance failures and user figure manipulation, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 3.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.5 Bil |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.5% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 4.4 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 48% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Crypto & Blockchain. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -7.3% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 19x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 116x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.5% |
| Key risksXYZ key risks include [1] federal scrutiny and class-action lawsuits over alleged widespread compliance failures and user figure manipulation, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Updated on 11/4/2026
Block (XYZ) stock has gained about 10% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Block (XYZ) surpassed analyst expectations for its fiscal third quarter of 2026 with robust financial results. The company reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.13, a significant 109.3% increase year-over-year, and exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 10.8%. Revenues also climbed by 9.9% year-over-year to $6.72 billion, beating the consensus estimate by 1.5%. This strong performance was primarily fueled by a 27% year-over-year increase in Cash App gross profit to $2.07 billion, driven by a 40% jump in consumer lending originations to $19 billion. Additionally, Square's gross payment volume (GPV) grew 14% year-over-year to $76.4 billion.
2. The company raised its full-year 2026 financial guidance and provided an optimistic initial outlook for fiscal year 2027. Following the strong third-quarter results, Block (XYZ) increased its adjusted EPS outlook for full-year 2026 to $4.15, projecting a 75% year-over-year growth, up from the previous forecast of $4.02. The gross profit outlook for 2026 was also raised to $12.63 billion, indicating 22% growth. For fiscal year 2027, Block (XYZ) anticipates gross profit growth of at least 15%, reaching $14.52 billion, and expects adjusted operating income to rise 30% to $4.58 billion, with an expanded operating margin of 32%.
Show more
Block (XYZ) stock has gained about 10% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Block (XYZ) surpassed analyst expectations for its fiscal third quarter of 2026 with robust financial results. The company reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.13, a significant 109.3% increase year-over-year, and exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 10.8%. Revenues also climbed by 9.9% year-over-year to $6.72 billion, beating the consensus estimate by 1.5%. This strong performance was primarily fueled by a 27% year-over-year increase in Cash App gross profit to $2.07 billion, driven by a 40% jump in consumer lending originations to $19 billion. Additionally, Square's gross payment volume (GPV) grew 14% year-over-year to $76.4 billion.
2. The company raised its full-year 2026 financial guidance and provided an optimistic initial outlook for fiscal year 2027. Following the strong third-quarter results, Block (XYZ) increased its adjusted EPS outlook for full-year 2026 to $4.15, projecting a 75% year-over-year growth, up from the previous forecast of $4.02. The gross profit outlook for 2026 was also raised to $12.63 billion, indicating 22% growth. For fiscal year 2027, Block (XYZ) anticipates gross profit growth of at least 15%, reaching $14.52 billion, and expects adjusted operating income to rise 30% to $4.58 billion, with an expanded operating margin of 32%.
Show more
Updated on 11/4/2026
Block (XYZ) stock has gained about 10% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Block (XYZ) surpassed analyst expectations for its fiscal third quarter of 2026 with robust financial results. The company reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.13, a significant 109.3% increase year-over-year, and exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 10.8%. Revenues also climbed by 9.9% year-over-year to $6.72 billion, beating the consensus estimate by 1.5%. This strong performance was primarily fueled by a 27% year-over-year increase in Cash App gross profit to $2.07 billion, driven by a 40% jump in consumer lending originations to $19 billion. Additionally, Square's gross payment volume (GPV) grew 14% year-over-year to $76.4 billion.
2. The company raised its full-year 2026 financial guidance and provided an optimistic initial outlook for fiscal year 2027. Following the strong third-quarter results, Block (XYZ) increased its adjusted EPS outlook for full-year 2026 to $4.15, projecting a 75% year-over-year growth, up from the previous forecast of $4.02. The gross profit outlook for 2026 was also raised to $12.63 billion, indicating 22% growth. For fiscal year 2027, Block (XYZ) anticipates gross profit growth of at least 15%, reaching $14.52 billion, and expects adjusted operating income to rise 30% to $4.58 billion, with an expanded operating margin of 32%.
3. Positive analyst sentiment, including multiple price target increases, reinforced confidence in Block's (XYZ) growth trajectory. In response to the strong Q3 2026 earnings beat and favorable guidance, numerous analysts reiterated "Buy" ratings and elevated their price targets for Block (XYZ) stock. For instance, Susquehanna raised its target to $110, Bank of America to $117, Royal Bank of Canada to $103, and Needham reaffirmed a $100 target. The consensus rating on Wall Street for Block (XYZ) shares remained a "Moderate Buy," with an average price target ranging from $97.45 to $101.62, suggesting further upside potential.
Show less
Block (XYZ) stock has gained about 10% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Block (XYZ) surpassed analyst expectations for its fiscal third quarter of 2026 with robust financial results. The company reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.13, a significant 109.3% increase year-over-year, and exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 10.8%. Revenues also climbed by 9.9% year-over-year to $6.72 billion, beating the consensus estimate by 1.5%. This strong performance was primarily fueled by a 27% year-over-year increase in Cash App gross profit to $2.07 billion, driven by a 40% jump in consumer lending originations to $19 billion. Additionally, Square's gross payment volume (GPV) grew 14% year-over-year to $76.4 billion.
2. The company raised its full-year 2026 financial guidance and provided an optimistic initial outlook for fiscal year 2027. Following the strong third-quarter results, Block (XYZ) increased its adjusted EPS outlook for full-year 2026 to $4.15, projecting a 75% year-over-year growth, up from the previous forecast of $4.02. The gross profit outlook for 2026 was also raised to $12.63 billion, indicating 22% growth. For fiscal year 2027, Block (XYZ) anticipates gross profit growth of at least 15%, reaching $14.52 billion, and expects adjusted operating income to rise 30% to $4.58 billion, with an expanded operating margin of 32%.
3. Positive analyst sentiment, including multiple price target increases, reinforced confidence in Block's (XYZ) growth trajectory. In response to the strong Q3 2026 earnings beat and favorable guidance, numerous analysts reiterated "Buy" ratings and elevated their price targets for Block (XYZ) stock. For instance, Susquehanna raised its target to $110, Bank of America to $117, Royal Bank of Canada to $103, and Needham reaffirmed a $100 target. The consensus rating on Wall Street for Block (XYZ) shares remained a "Moderate Buy," with an average price target ranging from $97.45 to $101.62, suggesting further upside potential.
Show less
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 9.0% change in XYZ stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 92.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 81.24 | 88.56 | 9.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 24,479 | 25,646 | 4.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.3% | 1.8% | -45.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 60.2 | 115.7 | 92.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 598 | 603 | -0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 9.0% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XYZ | 9.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.8% | 54.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | 1.8% | 67.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 25.6% change in XYZ stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 253.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 70.51 | 88.56 | 25.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 24,194 | 25,646 | 6.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.4% | 1.8% | -66.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 32.8 | 115.7 | 253.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 607 | 603 | 0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 25.6% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XYZ | 25.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.0% | 50.3% |
| Sector (XLF) | 11.6% | 51.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 16.6% change in XYZ stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 635.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 75.94 | 88.56 | 16.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 23,835 | 25,646 | 7.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.4% | 1.8% | -85.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.7 | 115.7 | 635.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 613 | 603 | 1.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 16.6% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XYZ | 16.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.3% | 50.3% |
| Sector (XLF) | 12.1% | 48.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 120.0% change in XYZ stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 67.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 40.25 | 88.56 | 120.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 19,692 | 25,646 | 30.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.2 | 2.1 | 67.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 607 | 603 | 0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 120.0% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XYZ | 120.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.2% | 54.8% |
| Sector (XLF) | 87.1% | 49.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| XYZ Return | -26% | -61% | 23% | 10% | -23% | 36% | -59% |
| Peers Return | -11% | -68% | 188% | 26% | 1% | -5% | -0% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 96% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| XYZ Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 42% | 58% | 58% | 73% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 47% | 32% | 65% | 48% | 53% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 36% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| XYZ Max Drawdown | -44% | -69% | -56% | -33% | -50% | -31% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -73% | -39% | -38% | -45% | -40% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PYPL, GPN, AFRM, COIN, SHOP.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/9/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | XYZ | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -44.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 80.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 459 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -11.1% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.5% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 11 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -49.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 96.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -27.7% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.3% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 62 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -55.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 123.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 74 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -47.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 91.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 541 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Block's stock fell -44.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 80.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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| Event | XYZ | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -44.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 80.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 459 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -49.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 96.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -27.7% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.3% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 62 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -55.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 123.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 74 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -47.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 91.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 541 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -36.0% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.2% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -36.0% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.2% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Block's stock fell -44.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 80.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Block (XYZ)
Block, Inc. is a technology company that provides a comprehensive suite of tools designed to empower both businesses and individual consumers. For businesses, primarily operating under its "Square" brand, Block offers integrated hardware and software solutions that enable sellers to accept various card payments, including traditional swipes, chips, and contactless methods. This ecosystem includes physical payment devices like Square Terminal and Square Register, alongside specialized point-of-sale software for retail, restaurants, and appointments, complemented by tools for online stores, invoicing, and business analytics.
Beyond its robust seller-focused platforms, Block also serves individual consumers through its popular "Cash App." This mobile application allows users to easily send, spend, and store money, providing a versatile personal finance solution. Furthermore, Block supports online presence creation with "Weebly," offering website hosting and domain name registration services, which rounds out its digital offerings for businesses aiming to establish an online footprint.
Overall, Block's mission is to simplify financial interactions and business operations across a broad spectrum of users. Its primary customers include small to large businesses seeking efficient payment processing and management tools, as well as individual consumers utilizing Cash App for their everyday financial needs. The company operates globally, serving markets across the United States, Canada, Japan, Australia, and several European countries.
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Shopify for small businesses with physical locations.
A blend of Venmo and Chime for personal finance.
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- Seller Ecosystem / Payment Processing Tools: A comprehensive suite of hardware and software solutions that enable businesses to accept card payments, manage operations, and analyze sales data.
- Cash App: A mobile financial service allowing users to send, spend, and store money, along with peer-to-peer payments and banking functionalities.
- Weebly: A web hosting and domain name registration platform that helps customers create and manage websites.
- Developer Platform: Provides application programming interfaces (APIs) and software development kits (SDKs) for third-party integration and custom development.
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Block, Inc. serves a diverse customer base that can be categorized as follows:
- Small and Medium-Sized Businesses (SMBs): These customers utilize Block's Square ecosystem for various business operations. This includes merchants in retail, restaurants, and service industries who use Square's hardware (e.g., Square Register, Square Terminal), software (e.g., Square Point of Sale, Square for Retail), and payment processing services to accept card payments, manage appointments, inventory, and online sales.
- Individual Consumers: This significant customer segment primarily uses the Cash App for personal financial activities. Cash App users send, spend, and store money, make peer-to-peer payments, access direct deposit, and utilize debit card services, as well as engage in investment features.
- Online Presence Seekers (Individuals and Small Businesses): Customers looking to establish or maintain an online presence use Weebly, a Block subsidiary, for website hosting and domain name registration solutions.
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- Visa Inc. (V)
- Mastercard Incorporated (MA)
- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
- Wells Fargo & Company (WFC)
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Jack Dorsey, Block Head and Chairperson
Jack Dorsey co-founded Block (formerly Square) in 2009. He also co-founded Twitter (now X) in 2006, serving as its CEO from 2007-2008 and again from 2015-2021. Earlier in his career, he created dispatch software at age 15 that some taxicab companies still use, and in 2000, he started a company to dispatch couriers, taxis, and emergency services online. Dorsey stepped down as Twitter's CEO in November 2021 to dedicate his focus to Block. He is recognized as a tech visionary and a strong advocate for Bitcoin.
Amrita Ahuja, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer
Amrita Ahuja joined Block (then Square) in January 2019 as CFO and took on the expanded role of COO in February 2023. She also serves as Chairperson of Block's industrial bank, Square Financial Services. Prior to Block, Ahuja was CFO of Blizzard Entertainment, a division of Activision Blizzard, and held leadership positions at Fox Networks Group, where she contributed to the launch of Hulu. Her career also includes roles at The Walt Disney Company in Strategic Planning and as an investment banking analyst at Morgan Stanley. She was drawn to Block by its mission to empower small business owners, a cause resonant with her own parents, who were Indian immigrants and ran a daycare center. Ahuja is a board member for both Airbnb and Discord. She has been instrumental in Block's strategic initiatives, including long-term investments in AI and cryptocurrency, and the acquisitions of TIDAL and Afterpay.
Brian Grassadonia, Ecosystem Lead
Brian Grassadonia is Block's Ecosystem Lead, focusing on integrating Square, Cash App, and other parts of Block's ecosystem through product experiences. He played a pivotal role as Square's first product lead, helping launch its initial card reader in 2010. He also co-created Cash App and previously served as its CEO. Before joining Block, Grassadonia worked at a startup that was acquired by Google and in investment banking at UBS.
Robert Andersen, Principal Designer
Robert Andersen is Block's Principal Designer. As Block's first employee in 2009, he led the creative processes that resulted in the original Square and Cash App products. He is a self-taught designer with over 20 years of professional experience, having joined Apple's internet services team at the age of 19.
Roelof Botha, Lead Independent Director
Roelof Botha has been a member of Block's board since 2011 and has served as Lead Independent Director since June 2022. He is a Senior Steward and Managing Member at Sequoia Capital, a venture capital firm, a role he has held since 2003. Prior to his tenure at Sequoia, Botha served as the Chief Financial Officer of PayPal from 2000 to 2003, where he oversaw the company's IPO in 2002 and its subsequent acquisition by eBay. He has served on the boards of numerous companies, including YouTube and Meebo (both acquired by Google), Weebly (acquired by Square/Block), and Tumblr (acquired by Yahoo!).
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The key risks to Block, Inc.'s business are:
- Regulatory Scrutiny and Compliance Failures: Block, Inc. faces significant regulatory challenges, particularly concerning anti-money laundering (AML) and Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) compliance on its Cash App platform, especially regarding Bitcoin transactions. Recent regulatory findings have highlighted deficiencies in its compliance framework, leading to substantial financial penalties. For instance, in early 2025, Block agreed to an $80 million settlement with 48 state financial regulators for BSA/AML violations. Separately, the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) imposed a $40 million penalty for "critical gaps" in its anti-money laundering requirements and failures to comply with virtual currency regulations. These settlements also mandate the appointment of independent monitors to oversee remediation efforts and ensure a more robust compliance program, indicating ongoing oversight.
- Bitcoin Volatility and Related Business Risks: Block's substantial involvement with Bitcoin, including direct investments, its Spiral and TBD ecosystems, and Bitcoin services within Cash App, exposes the company to the inherent volatility and unpredictable nature of the cryptocurrency market. This exposure has previously led to significant unrealized losses on its Bitcoin investments. The experimental nature of Bitcoin, coupled with potential future regulations, macroeconomic factors, and risks of fraud and cybercrime, could lead to future downturns and impact Block's financial performance.
- Intense Competition and Profitability Concerns: Block operates in a highly competitive fintech market, contending with both traditional financial institutions and numerous emerging technology companies such as PayPal, Stripe, Shopify, Venmo, Zelle, Apple Pay, and Google Pay. This intense competition can exert pressure on pricing, increase customer acquisition costs, and potentially lead to market share erosion. Furthermore, Block has historically struggled with profitability, recording net losses and experiencing relatively low operating margins compared to competitors, raising questions about its ability to generate sufficient cash flow to fund growth and achieve higher valuations. Recent large-scale workforce reductions, while aimed at efficiency through AI integration, also introduce execution risks that could impact operational stability and customer experience.
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- The emergence of payment acceptance solutions like Apple's "Tap to Pay on iPhone," which allows merchants to accept contactless payments directly on a smartphone without requiring dedicated hardware, thereby threatening Block's Square hardware sales and integrated point-of-sale solutions.
- The aggressive expansion of major technology companies, particularly Apple, into comprehensive consumer financial services, including peer-to-peer payments (Apple Cash), debit card functionality, and high-yield savings accounts, directly challenging Block's Cash App ecosystem as a primary mobile financial hub for consumers.
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Block, Inc. - Addressable Markets
Block, Inc. (formerly Square, Inc.) operates in several large and growing addressable markets through its Square seller ecosystem, Cash App, and Weebly platform.
Square Seller Services (Payment Processing, POS Solutions, Business Software)
- The global Point-of-Sale (POS) terminal market was valued at approximately USD 123.15 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 226.87 billion by 2033, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.9% from 2026 to 2033. North America held a significant share of 29.09% in this market in 2025.
- Another estimate places the global POS market size at USD 38.56 billion in 2025, growing to USD 138.92 billion by 2034 with a CAGR of 15.3%.
- The global payment processing solutions market was valued at USD 173.38 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 1,051.93 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 19.76% from 2026 to 2035.
- In the United States, the payment processing solutions market was valued at USD 40 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 36.75 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 12.6% from 2024 to 2030.
- For Europe, the payment processing solutions market generated USD 14,458.3 million in revenue in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 35,181.9 million by 2030, with a CAGR of 13.5% from 2024 to 2030.
- Block's management identifies a market opportunity for its Square segment as large as USD 130 billion in annual gross profit.
Cash App (Digital Wallets, P2P Payments, Consumer Financial Services)
- The total addressable market (TAM) for digital payments globally is estimated at USD 16.7 trillion by 2028. The serviceable addressable market (SAM) for cash apps and digital wallets is estimated at USD 4.2 trillion globally by 2028.
- The global P2P payment market was valued at USD 3.07 trillion in 2024 and is projected to reach approximately USD 16.21 trillion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 18.10% from 2025 to 2034. North America captured approximately 40% of the global P2P payment market in 2023.
- The U.S. mobile P2P payments market reached transaction values of USD 1,261.53 billion in 2023 and is projected to increase to approximately USD 1,375.93 billion in 2024.
- The global mobile wallet market was valued at USD 204.66 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 784.67 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 18.56%.
- The U.S. mobile wallet market is projected to grow from USD 2.52 billion in 2024 to USD 6.76 billion in 2032, at a CAGR of 13.12% during the forecast period 2025-2032.
- Block's management identifies a market opportunity for Cash App as large as USD 75 billion in annual gross profit.
Weebly (Website Builders and Web Hosting)
- The global website builder market was expected to reach approximately USD 1.8 billion in 2023 and is projected to surpass USD 3.5 billion over the next decade, with a CAGR of 6.9% from 2022-2032. Another report indicates the global website builder tool market was valued at USD 14.34 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 98.94 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 27.30%.
- North America dominated the website builder tool market with a share of approximately 40% in 2025.
- The global web hosting services market was valued at USD 137.73 billion in 2025 and is estimated to reach USD 389.52 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 12.25% from 2026-2034. North America dominates this market, holding a 43% market share.
- The U.S. accounts for approximately 89% of the web hosting services market growth.
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Block, Inc. (symbol: XYZ) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies centered on expanding its two primary ecosystems, Square and Cash App, enhancing product offerings, and extending its global reach.
Here are the expected drivers of Block's future revenue growth:
* **Cash App Ecosystem Expansion and Monetization:** Block aims to establish Cash App as a leading provider of banking services for U.S. households earning up to $150,000 annually. This will involve broadening its offerings beyond peer-to-peer payments to include services like direct deposit, savings, investing, and small-dollar credit. Further monetization is expected through increased card interchange, instant deposit fees, and brokerage revenues. The integration of Afterpay's Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) functionality within Cash App is also projected to boost seller conversion, average order value, and gross profit per active user. Products like Cash App Borrow, which provides small, short-term loans, are also contributing to growth.
* **Square Ecosystem Upmarket Expansion and Product Innovation:** Block is focusing on expanding its Square ecosystem to serve larger, mid-market, and multi-location sellers. This strategy involves offering more specialized software solutions, such as Square for Restaurants, Square for Retail, and Square Appointments, along with integrated payroll, banking, and marketing tools to increase average revenue per user (ARPU). The company is also enhancing its developer platform and partner ecosystem, introducing new products and features, and improving gross payment volume (GPV) growth through ongoing innovation and go-to-market initiatives, including consolidating existing Point of Sale apps and launching new payment functionalities.
* **International Expansion:** Block is actively pursuing international growth, particularly in markets such as the U.K., EU, Australia, Japan, and Canada. The company aims for sustained double-digit international gross profit growth and plans to achieve product parity and localized payment solutions in these regions through 2025-2026. International Gross Payment Volume (GPV) for Square has demonstrated significantly faster growth compared to its U.S. counterpart, indicating strong potential for this driver.
* **Ecosystem Synergies and AI-Driven Product Velocity:** A core part of Block's growth strategy involves creating stronger synergies and cross-selling opportunities between its Square and Cash App ecosystems. By connecting Cash App's large user base with Square sellers through features like discovery, offers, and loyalty programs, Block intends to foster a closed-loop demand flywheel, driving increased engagement and transaction volume across both platforms. Additionally, Block is transitioning to an "AI-native operational model" and expects enterprise-wide AI deployment to not only boost operating income margins through efficiency but also contribute to product-led expansion and accelerate product development across its offerings.
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Share Repurchases
- In November 2025, Block announced a $5 billion increase to its existing share repurchase program for its Class A common stock.
- As of September 30, 2025, approximately $1.1 billion remained available under Block's previous $4 billion share repurchase authorization.
- Block repurchased $790 million worth of Class A shares in Q4 2025, contributing to $2.3 billion in total repurchases for the year 2025.
Share Issuance
- Block's acquisition of Afterpay in January 2022 involved a payment of US$29 billion in stock.
- The acquisition of a majority ownership in Tidal in March 2021 by Square (now Block) was for $297 million in cash and stock.
Inbound Investments
- Institutional investors and hedge funds owned 70.44% of Block's stock as of March 9, 2026, reflecting increasing confidence.
- In Q2 2025, several large institutions acquired significant new positions in Block, including Vanguard Group Inc. ($3.73 billion) and Sands Capital Management LLC ($702.4 million).
Outbound Investments
- In January 2022, Block finalized the acquisition of Afterpay, a "buy now, pay later" service, for US$29 billion in stock.
- In March 2021, Square (now Block) acquired a majority stake in the music streaming platform Tidal for $297 million in cash and stock.
- Square acquired Credit Karma Tax for $50 million in November 2020, integrating it into its Cash App unit.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were reported as $298 million for 2025, $250 million for 2024, and $217 million for 2023.
- In Q4 2025, Block invested $41.2 million in capital expenditures, focusing on funding long-term assets and infrastructure.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures includes investing in product development and advancing the Square and Cash App ecosystems.
Peer Outperformance in Transaction & Payment Processing Services
XYZ has trailed 88% of its 16 Transaction & Payment Processing Services peers over 5Y. Transaction & Payment Processing Services ranks 16th of 18 industries in Financials by median 5Y return. The sector’s gains have largely come from elsewhere.
Share of Transaction & Payment Processing Services constituents that XYZ has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
83%
of 18 industry peers · 35.3% return
3Y
72%
of 18 industry peers · 72.0% return
5Y
13%
of 16 industry peers · -61.6% return
No Transaction & Payment Processing Services peer with a comparable growth profile has beaten XYZ by more than 20pp over 5Y.
Median price return by industry across the Financials sector, ranked by 5Y. Transaction & Payment Processing Services is XYZ's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reinsurance | 6 | 29.9% | 70.2% | 119.9% | SPNT 174% · RGA 166% · RNR 132% |
| Diversified Banks | 12 | 31.7% | 143.1% | 92.9% | CM 147% · JPM 131% · RY 130% |
| Investment Banking & Brokerage | 13 | -3.5% | 93.4% | 90.2% | IBKR 337% · SNEX 169% · GS 152% |
| Multi-Sector Holdings | 4 | 32.0% | 62.9% | 88.0% | BRK-B 101% · VOYA 75% · JEF 42% |
| Life & Health Insurance | 20 | 10.4% | 58.7% | 85.1% | JXN 527% · UNM 261% · FG 240% |
| Property & Casualty Insurance | 42 | 15.6% | 69.9% | 69.1% | TRV 176% · ACGL 171% · PGR 166% |
| Multi-line Insurance | 9 | 8.4% | 71.7% | 58.9% | AIZ 115% · GNW 106% · L 94% |
| Regional Banks | 264 | 31.6% | 93.8% | 48.6% | CBC 279% · FCNCA 179% · NIC 141% |
| Insurance Brokers | 15 | 1.6% | 9.0% | 28.6% | LIFE 317% · ARX 89% · WTW 50% |
| Financial Exchanges & Data | 15 | 18.4% | 30.2% | 15.1% | CBOE 187% · VIRT 148% · CME 69% |
| Asset Management & Custody Banks | 85 | -5.8% | 18.3% | 6.3% | VCTR 254% · WT 235% · AAMI 221% |
| Diversified Financial Services | 4 | -2.6% | 23.3% | 5.8% | FRHC 148% · EQH 82% |
| Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance | 14 | -41.7% | 28.1% | 4.5% | FNMA 350% · FMCC 313% · ACT 161% |
| Consumer Finance | 30 | 1.8% | 77.8% | -2.1% | ENVA 319% · FCFS 133% · AXP 92% |
| Specialized Finance | 3 | 26.9% | 30.4% | -18.7% | CACC -19% · HASI -21% |
| Transaction & Payment Processing Services ← | 17 | 23.2% | 12.5% | -23.3% | V 105% · MA 96% · CPAY 88% |
| Mortgage REITs | 34 | -18.9% | -10.5% | -38.1% | RITM 37% · DX 18% · AGNC 13% |
| Diversified Capital Markets | 20 | -48.7% | -14.1% | -69.3% | LPLA 90% · TW 37% · RIOT -56% |
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are limited to companies above $2B market cap.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 93.28 |
| Mkt Cap | 43.3 |
| Rev LTM | 12,830 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,789 |
| FCF LTM | 1,986 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,983 |
| CFO LTM | 2,046 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,092 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 19.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 20.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 20.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 23.8% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 116.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 15.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.8% |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $88.56 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 53.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/19/2015 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $78.01 | $71.69 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | 13.5% | 23.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 47.0% | 48.5% |
| Downside Capture | 182.75 | 188.34 |
| Upside Capture | 284.18 | 190.67 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 54.5% | 50.1% |
XYZ Betas & Captures as of 10/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.96 | 1.49 | 1.73 | 1.50 | 1.77 | 1.78 |
| Up Beta | -3.14 | -0.75 | 0.32 | 0.98 | 1.60 | 1.44 |
| Down Beta | 0.47 | 1.38 | 1.00 | 1.22 | 1.84 | 1.82 |
| Up Capture | 182% | 172% | 227% | 199% | 244% | 1146% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 20 | 29 | 61 | 124 | 399 |
| Down Capture | 102% | 191% | 228% | 156% | 147% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 23 | 35 | 65 | 126 | 351 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with XYZ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XYZ | 25.0% | 48.5% | 0.60 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 12.0% | 15.3% | 0.53 | 48.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.3% | 13.7% | 0.65 | 49.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 3.7% | 28.8% | 0.12 | 25.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 38.2% | 21.3% | 1.42 | -21.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.7% | 14.3% | 0.65 | 26.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -25.3% | 43.6% | -0.55 | 31.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with XYZ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XYZ | -19.1% | 60.1% | -0.12 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 9.4% | 18.4% | 0.37 | 54.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.8% | 17.3% | 0.51 | 63.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.8% | 19.1% | 0.75 | 11.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 19.6% | 0.29 | 5.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.5% | 18.9% | -0.03 | 46.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.4% | 51.6% | 0.27 | 38.7% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with XYZ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XYZ | 23.0% | 57.0% | 0.60 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 13.4% | 22.1% | 0.55 | 45.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 18.0% | 0.72 | 60.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.5% | 0.60 | 9.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.6% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 13.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.1% | 20.7% | 0.25 | 43.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.0% | 66.3% | 1.00 | 24.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/6/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/3/2026 | 15.3% | ||
| 8/5/2026 | -6.2% | -7.0% | -1.0% |
| 5/7/2026 | 6.7% | 2.0% | -0.3% |
| 2/26/2026 | 16.8% | 23.6% | 2.7% |
| 11/6/2025 | -7.7% | -12.2% | -13.2% |
| 8/7/2025 | -4.5% | -1.1% | -1.3% |
| 5/1/2025 | -20.4% | -14.3% | 5.6% |
| 2/20/2025 | -17.7% | -22.6% | -26.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 12 | 11 |
| # Negative | 12 | 12 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 10.7% | 11.0% | 17.1% |
| Median Negative | -5.3% | -10.2% | -13.2% |
| Max Positive | 26.1% | 25.0% | 47.8% |
| Max Negative | -20.4% | -22.6% | -27.4% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/3/2026 | 15.3% | ||
| 8/5/2026 | -6.2% | -7.0% | -1.0% |
| 5/7/2026 | 6.7% | 2.0% | -0.3% |
| 2/26/2026 | 16.8% | 23.6% | 2.7% |
| 11/6/2025 | -7.7% | -12.2% | -13.2% |
| 8/7/2025 | -4.5% | -1.1% | -1.3% |
| 5/1/2025 | -20.4% | -14.3% | 5.6% |
| 2/20/2025 | -17.7% | -22.6% | -26.4% |
| 11/7/2024 | -0.9% | 10.8% | 26.8% |
| 8/1/2024 | 0.8% | 2.2% | 10.3% |
| 5/2/2024 | -1.2% | 4.1% | -8.5% |
| 2/22/2024 | 16.1% | 16.9% | 18.8% |
| 11/2/2023 | 10.7% | 16.1% | 47.8% |
| 8/3/2023 | -13.6% | -15.4% | -20.9% |
| 5/4/2023 | -2.0% | -5.2% | 5.1% |
| 2/23/2023 | 4.3% | 5.2% | -18.2% |
| 11/3/2022 | 11.5% | 25.0% | 17.1% |
| 8/4/2022 | -2.2% | -4.1% | -26.1% |
| 5/5/2022 | 0.7% | -20.7% | -12.7% |
| 2/24/2022 | 26.1% | 20.2% | 37.2% |
| 11/4/2021 | -4.1% | -8.5% | -27.4% |
| 8/2/2021 | 10.2% | 11.3% | 10.0% |
| 5/6/2021 | 4.2% | -12.0% | -3.1% |
| 2/23/2021 | -7.5% | -1.7% | -16.8% |
| 11/5/2020 | 13.0% | 1.9% | 21.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 12 | 11 |
| # Negative | 12 | 12 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 10.7% | 11.0% | 17.1% |
| Median Negative | -5.3% | -10.2% | -13.2% |
| Max Positive | 26.1% | 25.0% | 47.8% |
| Max Negative | -20.4% | -22.6% | -27.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/24/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/24/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/24/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/02/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/23/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/26/2020 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 11/4/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 11/3/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Rule of X | Reported | 0.46 | ||||||
| Q4 2026 Gross Profit | Reported | 3.31 Bil | 5.9% | Higher New | Guidance: 3.13 Bil for Q3 2026 | |||
| Q4 2026 Gross Profit YoY Growth | Reported | 15.0% | -3.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 18.0% for Q3 2026 | |||
| Q4 2026 Adjusted Operating Income Margin (% of gross profit) | Reported | 30.0% | 2.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 28.0% for Q3 2026 | |||
| Q4 2026 Adjusted Operating Income | Reported | 1.00 Bil | 14.9% | Higher New | Guidance: 875.00 Mil for Q3 2026 | |||
| Q4 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 1.15 | 12.7% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.02 for Q3 2026 | |||
| Q4 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS YoY Growth | Reported | 77.0% | -12.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 89.0% for Q3 2026 | |||
| 2026 Rule of X | Reported | 0.5 | ||||||
| 2026 Gross Profit | Reported | 12.63 Bil | 0.9% | Raised | Guidance: 12.51 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Gross Profit YoY Growth | Reported | 22.0% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 21.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Operating Income Margin (% of gross profit) | Reported | 28.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 28.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Operating Income | Reported | 3.52 Bil | 1.4% | Raised | Guidance: 3.47 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Operating Income YoY Growth | Reported | 69.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 4.15 | 3.2% | Raised | Guidance: 4.02 for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS YoY Growth | Reported | 75.0% | 5.0% | Raised | Guidance: 70.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2027 Gross Profit | Reported | 14.52 Bil | 16.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 12.51 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2027 Gross Profit YoY Growth | Reported | 15.0% | -6.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 21.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2027 Adjusted Operating Income Margin (%) of gross profit | Reported | 32.0% | 4.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 28.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2027 Adjusted Operating Income | Reported | 4.58 Bil | 31.8% | Higher New | Guidance: 3.47 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2027 Adjusted Operating Income YoY Growth | Reported | 30.0% | ||||||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Gross Profit | Reported | 3.13 Bil | 3.0% | Higher New | Actual: 3.04 Bil for Q2 2026 | |||
| Q3 2026 Gross Profit Growth | Reported | 18.0% | -2.0% | Lower New | Actual: 20.0% for Q2 2026 | |||
| Q3 2026 Adjusted Operating Income | Reported | 875.00 Mil | 18.2% | Higher New | Actual: 740.00 Mil for Q2 2026 | |||
| Q3 2026 Adjusted Operating Margin | Reported | 28.0% | 4.0% | Higher New | Actual: 24.0% for Q2 2026 | |||
| Q3 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 1.02 | 18.6% | Higher New | Actual: 0.86 for Q2 2026 | |||
| Q3 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS Growth | Reported | 89.0% | 50.0% | Higher New | Actual: 39.0% for Q2 2026 | |||
| 2026 Gross Profit | Reported | 12.51 Bil | 1.5% | Raised | Guidance: 12.33 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Gross Profit Growth | Reported | 21.0% | 2.0% | Raised | Guidance: 19.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Operating Income | Reported | 3.47 Bil | 3.9% | Raised | Guidance: 3.34 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Operating Margin | Reported | 28.0% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 27.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 4.02 | 4.4% | Raised | Guidance: 3.85 for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS Growth | Reported | 70.0% | 8.0% | Raised | Guidance: 62.0% for 2026 | |||
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Gross Profit | Reported | 3.04 Bil | ||||||
| Q2 2026 Gross Profit Growth | Reported | 20.0% | ||||||
| Q2 2026 Adjusted Operating Income | Reported | 740.00 Mil | ||||||
| Q2 2026 Adjusted Operating Income Margin | Reported | 24.0% | ||||||
| Q2 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 0.86 | ||||||
| Q2 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS Growth | Reported | 39.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Gross Profit | Reported | 12.33 Bil | 1.1% | Raised | Guidance: 12.20 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Gross Profit Growth | Reported | 19.0% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 18.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Operating Income | Reported | 3.34 Bil | 4.4% | Raised | Guidance: 3.20 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Operating Income Margin | Reported | 27.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 3.85 | 5.2% | Raised | Guidance: 3.66 for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS Growth | Reported | 62.0% | ||||||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/26/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Gross Profit | Reported | 2.80 Bil | 1.6% | Higher New | Actual: 2.75 Bil for Q4 2025 | |||
| Q1 2026 Gross Profit Growth | Reported | 22.0% | 3.0% | Higher New | Actual: 19.0% for Q4 2025 | |||
| Q1 2026 Adjusted Operating Income | Reported | 600.00 Mil | 7.1% | Higher New | Actual: 560.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |||
| Q1 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 0.67 | ||||||
| 2026 Gross Profit | Reported | 12.20 Bil | 19.1% | Higher New | Actual: 10.24 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Gross Profit Growth | Reported | 18.0% | 3.0% | Higher New | Actual: 15.0% for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Operating Income | Reported | 3.20 Bil | 55.6% | Higher New | Actual: 2.06 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 3.66 | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 11/6/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 11062026 | 87.50 | 35,000 | 3,062,500 | 103,046,300 | Form | |
| 2 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 10292026 | 74.44 | 6,000 | 446,640 | 90,271,304 | Form | |
| 3 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 10272026 | 74.79 | 6,000 | 448,740 | 91,144,479 | Form | |
| 4 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 10272026 | 75.76 | 6,000 | 454,560 | 92,781,151 | Form | |
| 5 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 10272026 | 77.84 | 6,000 | 467,040 | 95,795,508 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 11062026 | 87.50 | 35,000 | 3,062,500 | 103,046,300 | Form | |
| 2 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 10292026 | 74.44 | 6,000 | 446,640 | 90,271,304 | Form | |
| 3 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 10272026 | 74.79 | 6,000 | 448,740 | 91,144,479 | Form | |
| 4 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 10272026 | 75.76 | 6,000 | 454,560 | 92,781,151 | Form | |
| 5 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 10272026 | 77.84 | 6,000 | 467,040 | 95,795,508 | Form | |
| 6 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 10222026 | 78.06 | 6,000 | 468,360 | 96,534,616 | Form | |
| 7 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 10222026 | 79.07 | 6,000 | 474,420 | 98,258,075 | Form | |
| 8 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 10222026 | 77.25 | 6,000 | 463,500 | 96,459,912 | Form | |
| 9 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 10192026 | 78.58 | 6,000 | 471,480 | 98,592,126 | Form | |
| 10 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 10192026 | 80.43 | 6,000 | 482,580 | 101,395,849 | Form | |
| 11 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 10192026 | 76.99 | 6,000 | 461,940 | 97,521,077 | Form | |
| 12 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 10142026 | 75.70 | 6,000 | 454,200 | 96,341,270 | Form | |
| 13 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 10142026 | 76.80 | 6,000 | 460,800 | 98,202,010 | Form | |
| 14 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 10142026 | 76.97 | 6,000 | 461,820 | 98,881,204 | Form | |
| 15 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 10092026 | 75.75 | 6,000 | 454,500 | 97,768,404 | Form | |
| 16 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 10092026 | 75.17 | 6,000 | 451,020 | 97,470,834 | Form | |
| 17 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 10092026 | 75.35 | 6,000 | 452,100 | 98,156,335 | Form | |
| 18 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 10062026 | 76.68 | 6,000 | 460,080 | 100,348,969 | Form | |
| 19 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 10062026 | 74.24 | 6,000 | 445,440 | 97,601,249 | Form | |
| 20 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 10062026 | 75.61 | 6,000 | 453,660 | 99,856,010 | Form | |
| 21 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 10012026 | 73.67 | 6,000 | 442,020 | 97,735,926 | Form | |
| 22 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 10012026 | 74.33 | 6,000 | 445,980 | 99,057,510 | Form | |
| 23 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 10012026 | 73.29 | 6,000 | 439,740 | 98,111,271 | Form | |
| 24 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 9282026 | 75.20 | 6,000 | 451,200 | 101,119,334 | Form | |
| 25 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 9282026 | 76.90 | 6,000 | 461,400 | 103,866,677 | Form | |
| 26 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 9282026 | 74.58 | 6,000 | 447,480 | 101,180,598 | Form | |
| 27 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 9232026 | 76.67 | 6,000 | 460,020 | 104,476,062 | Form | |
| 28 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 9232026 | 79.59 | 6,000 | 477,540 | 108,932,604 | Form | |
| 29 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 9232026 | 77.54 | 6,000 | 465,240 | 106,592,067 | Form | |
| 30 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 9182026 | 76.55 | 6,000 | 459,300 | 105,690,442 | Form | |
| 31 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 9182026 | 77.97 | 6,000 | 467,820 | 108,118,816 | Form | |
| 32 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 9182026 | 78.36 | 6,000 | 470,160 | 109,129,778 | Form | |
| 33 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 9152026 | 79.31 | 6,000 | 475,860 | 110,928,676 | Form | |
| 34 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 9152026 | 78.96 | 6,000 | 473,760 | 110,912,901 | Form | |
| 35 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 9152026 | 79.96 | 6,000 | 479,760 | 112,797,333 | Form | |
| 36 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 9102026 | 78.39 | 6,000 | 470,340 | 111,052,918 | Form | |
| 37 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 9102026 | 79.27 | 6,000 | 475,620 | 112,775,209 | Form | |
| 38 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 9102026 | 82.18 | 6,000 | 493,080 | 117,408,265 | Form | |
| 39 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 9042026 | 82.51 | 6,000 | 495,060 | 118,374,787 | Form | |
| 40 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 9042026 | 83.57 | 6,000 | 501,420 | 120,396,959 | Form | |
| 41 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 9042026 | 77.30 | 6,000 | 463,800 | 111,827,746 | Form | |
| 42 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 9012026 | 80.04 | 6,000 | 480,240 | 116,271,867 | Form | |
| 43 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 9012026 | 82.58 | 6,000 | 495,480 | 120,457,134 | Form | |
| 44 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 9012026 | 85.12 | 6,000 | 510,720 | 124,672,881 | Form | |
| 45 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 8272026 | 84.00 | 6,000 | 504,000 | 123,536,448 | Form | |
| 46 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 8272026 | 82.00 | 6,000 | 492,000 | 121,087,104 | Form | |
| 47 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 8272026 | 81.81 | 6,000 | 490,860 | 121,297,396 | Form | |
| 48 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 8242026 | 81.48 | 6,000 | 488,880 | 121,296,995 | Form | |
| 49 | Jennings, Owen Britton | Business Lead | Direct | Sell | 8242026 | 81.48 | 1,317 | 107,309 | 37,491,229 | Form |
| 50 | Grassadonia, Brian | Ecosystem Lead | Direct | Sell | 8242026 | 82.42 | 8,173 | 673,635 | 42,363,348 | Form |
| 51 | Ahuja, Amrita | CFO & COO | Direct | Sell | 8242026 | 82.43 | 9,511 | 783,970 | 34,888,509 | Form |
| 52 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 8242026 | 80.04 | 6,000 | 480,240 | 119,633,547 | Form | |
| 53 | Jennings, Owen Britton | Business Lead | Direct | Sell | 8242026 | 80.04 | 584 | 46,743 | 36,934,058 | Form |
| 54 | Ahuja, Amrita | CFO & COO | Direct | Sell | 8242026 | 80.04 | 3,101 | 248,204 | 34,639,151 | Form |
| 55 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 8242026 | 80.87 | 6,000 | 485,220 | 121,359,345 | Form | |
| 56 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 8192026 | 79.55 | 6,000 | 477,300 | 119,855,758 | Form | |
| 57 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 8192026 | 79.17 | 6,000 | 475,020 | 119,758,242 | Form | |
| 58 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 8192026 | 81.63 | 6,000 | 489,780 | 123,969,195 | Form | |
| 59 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 8142026 | 82.87 | 6,000 | 497,220 | 126,349,569 | Form | |
| 60 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 8142026 | 79.16 | 6,000 | 474,960 | 121,167,996 | Form | |
| 61 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 8142026 | 78.62 | 6,000 | 471,720 | 120,813,153 | Form | |
| 62 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 8112026 | 78.82 | 6,000 | 472,920 | 121,593,407 | Form | |
| 63 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 8112026 | 78.47 | 6,000 | 470,820 | 121,524,292 | Form | |
| 64 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 8112026 | 78.90 | 6,000 | 473,400 | 122,663,621 | Form | |
| 65 | Ahuja, Amrita | CFO & COO | Direct | Sell | 8072026 | 85.85 | 8,971 | 770,160 | 38,999,509 | Form |
| 66 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 8062026 | 83.07 | 6,000 | 498,420 | 129,645,023 | Form | |
| 67 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 8062026 | 85.85 | 41,000 | 3,519,850 | 134,498,791 | Form | |
| 68 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 8062026 | 82.31 | 6,000 | 493,860 | 132,327,482 | Form | |
| 69 | Grassadonia, Brian | Ecosystem Lead | Direct | Sell | 8052026 | 81.64 | 25,908 | 2,115,110 | 43,411,352 | Form |
| 70 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 8032026 | 81.52 | 6,000 | 489,120 | 131,546,541 | Form | |
| 71 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 8032026 | 82.27 | 6,000 | 493,620 | 133,250,415 | Form | |
| 72 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 8032026 | 81.17 | 6,000 | 487,020 | 131,955,796 | Form | |
| 73 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 7292026 | 82.22 | 6,000 | 493,320 | 134,156,072 | Form | |
| 74 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 7292026 | 81.70 | 6,000 | 490,200 | 133,797,802 | Form | |
| 75 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 7292026 | 78.88 | 6,000 | 473,280 | 129,652,847 | Form | |
| 76 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 7242026 | 77.03 | 6,000 | 462,180 | 127,074,234 | Form | |
| 77 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 7242026 | 77.32 | 6,000 | 463,920 | 128,016,559 | Form | |
| 78 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 7242026 | 79.10 | 6,000 | 474,600 | 131,438,255 | Form | |
| 79 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 7212026 | 79.31 | 6,000 | 475,860 | 132,263,066 | Form | |
| 80 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 7212026 | 78.90 | 6,000 | 473,400 | 132,052,721 | Form | |
| 81 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 7212026 | 79.13 | 6,000 | 474,780 | 132,912,445 | Form | |
| 82 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 7162026 | 82.11 | 6,000 | 492,660 | 138,410,528 | Form | |
| 83 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 7162026 | 83.52 | 141,000 | 11,776,380 | 141,289,165 | Form | |
| 84 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 7162026 | 78.58 | 6,000 | 471,480 | 144,011,366 | Form | |
| 85 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 7132026 | 78.35 | 6,000 | 470,100 | 144,059,951 | Form | |
| 86 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 7132026 | 78.91 | 6,000 | 473,460 | 145,563,068 | Form | |
| 87 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 7132026 | 76.14 | 6,000 | 456,840 | 140,910,166 | Form | |
| 88 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 7082026 | 76.66 | 6,000 | 459,960 | 142,332,476 | Form | |
| 89 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 7082026 | 79.49 | 6,000 | 476,940 | 148,063,797 | Form | |
| 90 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 7082026 | 78.77 | 6,000 | 472,620 | 147,195,293 | Form | |
| 91 | Grassadonia, Brian | Ecosystem Lead | Direct | Sell | 7072026 | 80.00 | 43,348 | 3,467,840 | 44,612,320 | Form |
| 92 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 79.83 | 36,000 | 2,873,820 | 149,651,941 | Form | |
| 93 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 76.40 | 6,000 | 458,400 | 145,975,341 | Form | |
| 94 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 78.80 | 6,000 | 472,800 | 151,033,754 | Form | |
| 95 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 6292026 | 78.93 | 6,000 | 473,580 | 151,756,501 | Form | |
| 96 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 6292026 | 74.80 | 6,000 | 448,800 | 144,264,666 | Form | |
| 97 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 6292026 | 75.70 | 6,000 | 454,200 | 146,454,670 | Form | |
| 98 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 6242026 | 74.01 | 6,000 | 444,060 | 143,629,135 | Form | |
| 99 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 6242026 | 72.29 | 6,000 | 433,740 | 140,724,919 | Form | |
| 100 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 6242026 | 74.28 | 6,000 | 445,680 | 145,044,476 | Form | |
| 101 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 6182026 | 73.99 | 6,000 | 443,940 | 144,922,141 | Form | |
| 102 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 6182026 | 74.10 | 6,000 | 444,600 | 145,582,195 | Form | |
| 103 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 6182026 | 74.95 | 6,000 | 449,700 | 147,701,866 | Form | |
| 104 | Ahuja, Amrita | CFO & COO | Direct | Sell | 6182026 | 75.00 | 8,093 | 606,975 | 34,743,450 | Form |
| 105 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 6152026 | 72.26 | 6,000 | 433,560 | 142,568,257 | Form | |
| 106 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 6152026 | 69.78 | 6,000 | 418,680 | 138,093,922 | Form | |
| 107 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 66.07 | 6,000 | 396,420 | 131,148,289 | Form | |
| 108 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 66.64 | 6,000 | 399,840 | 132,679,574 | Form | |
| 109 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 68.82 | 6,000 | 412,920 | 137,432,852 | Form | |
| 110 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 6082026 | 68.22 | 6,000 | 409,320 | 136,643,978 | Form | |
| 111 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 6082026 | 70.19 | 6,000 | 421,140 | 141,011,008 | Form | |
| 112 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 6082026 | 70.84 | 6,000 | 425,040 | 142,741,892 | Form | |
| 113 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 6032026 | 72.82 | 6,000 | 436,920 | 147,168,492 | Form | |
| 114 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 6032026 | 76.35 | 6,000 | 458,100 | 154,760,686 | Form | |
| 115 | Eisen, Anthony Mathew | Direct | Sell | 6032026 | 76.81 | 135,750 | 10,426,774 | 156,151,208 | Form | |
| 116 | Ahuja, Amrita | CFO & COO | Direct | Sell | 6032026 | 76.62 | 11,076 | 848,624 | 36,113,198 | Form |
| 117 | Jennings, Owen Britton | Business Lead | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 68.54 | 1,316 | 90,199 | 32,876,033 | Form |
| 118 | Jennings, Owen Britton | Business Lead | Direct | Sell | 5212026 | 69.83 | 583 | 40,711 | 33,586,694 | Form |
| 119 | Jennings, Owen Britton | Business Lead | Direct | Sell | 5212026 | 71.00 | 44 | 3,124 | 35,444,052 | Form |
| 120 | Esperanza, Chrysty | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 4222026 | 75.00 | 3,000 | 225,000 | 20,112,675 | Form |
| 121 | Ahuja, Amrita | CFO & COO | Direct | Sell | 4222026 | 75.00 | 30,919 | 2,318,925 | 37,561,200 | Form |
| 122 | Jennings, Owen Britton | Business Lead | Direct | Sell | 4082026 | 60.25 | 133 | 8,013 | 13,862,983 | Form |
| 123 | Grassadonia, Brian | Ecosystem Lead | Direct | Sell | 4082026 | 60.25 | 1,769 | 106,582 | 30,170,971 | Form |
| 124 | Jennings, Owen Britton | Business Lead | Direct | Sell | 3052026 | 63.41 | 3,555 | 225,423 | 14,664,323 | Form |
| 125 | Grassadonia, Brian | Ecosystem Lead | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 50.00 | 10,349 | 517,450 | 25,189,200 | Form |
| 126 | Grassadonia, Brian | Ecosystem Lead | Direct | Sell | 1062026 | 68.52 | 1,983 | 135,875 | 35,516,040 | Form |
| 127 | Grassadonia, Brian | Ecosystem Lead | Direct | Sell | 1062026 | 63.98 | 1,038 | 66,411 | 33,289,690 | Form |
| 128 | Jennings, Owen Britton | Business Lead | Direct | Sell | 1062026 | 63.98 | 822 | 52,592 | 15,529,098 | Form |
| 129 | Esperanza, Chrysty | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 1062026 | 63.98 | 331 | 21,177 | 7,861,031 | Form |
| 130 | Dale, Ajmere | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 1062026 | 65.09 | 1,173 | 76,354 | 6,405,886 | Form |
| 131 | Ahuja, Amrita | CFO & COO | Direct | Sell | 1062026 | 63.98 | 1,101 | 70,442 | 17,393,859 | Form |
| 132 | Grassadonia, Brian | Ecosystem Lead | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 61.96 | 8,085 | 500,952 | 32,303,338 | Form |
| 133 | Weber, Arnaud | Engineering Lead | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 61.40 | 7,095 | 435,633 | 15,910,950 | Form |
| 134 | Jennings, Owen Britton | Business Lead | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 61.40 | 10,417 | 639,604 | 14,953,356 | Form |
| 135 | Grassadonia, Brian | Ecosystem Lead | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 61.40 | 6,460 | 396,644 | 32,507,432 | Form |
| 136 | Esperanza, Chrysty | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 61.40 | 3,608 | 221,531 | 7,564,357 | Form |
| 137 | Dale, Ajmere | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 61.40 | 2,724 | 167,254 | 6,114,519 | Form |
| 138 | Ahuja, Amrita | CFO & COO | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 61.40 | 9,959 | 611,483 | 16,760,051 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 10, 202613F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)
Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opti Capital Management, LP | $82.2 Mil | 5.9% | 36 | TRIM -36.4% | 13F |
| Dragoneer Investment Group, LLC | $175.6 Mil | 5.9% | 17 | TRIM -41.4% | 13F |
| Woodson Capital Management, LP | $34.9 Mil | 5.6% | 28 | TRIM -16.1% | 13F |
| PointState Capital LP | $239.4 Mil | 5.6% | 44 | ADD +93.4% | 13F |
| Ribbit Management Company, LLC | $86.1 Mil | 5.1% | 16 | ADD +23.2% | 13F |
| Hyperion Asset Management Ltd | $151.1 Mil | 4.8% | 18 | TRIM -5.4% | 13F |
| a16z Capital Management, L.L.C. | $61.2 Mil | 4.7% | 16 | Hold | 13F |
| Ravenswood Partners LP | $10.2 Mil | 3.8% | 35 | Hold | 13F |
| Azora Capital LP | $41.8 Mil | 2.8% | 45 | New | 13F |
| Evergreen Quality Fund GP, Ltd. | $112.6 Mil | 2.6% | 40 | Hold | 13F |
| Glenview Capital Management, LLC | $82.1 Mil | 2.2% | 41 | ADD +60.2% | 13F |
| Gladstone Capital Management LLP | $11.6 Mil | 1.2% | 32 | TRIM -62.6% | 13F |
| SC US (TTGP), LTD. | $59.6 Mil | 0.6% | 36 | Hold | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernbridge Capital Management LP | $28.4 Mil | 1.4% | 20 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Nishkama Capital, LLC | $12.2 Mil | 1.7% | 49 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Philadelphia Financial Management of San Francisco, LLC | $12.0 Mil | 2.5% | 46 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| ADAPT Investment Managers SA | $6.3 Mil | 1.3% | 28 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Gladstone Capital Management LLP | $11.6 Mil | 1.2% | 32 | TRIM -62.6% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Dragoneer Investment Group, LLC | $175.6 Mil | 5.9% | 17 | TRIM -41.4% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Opti Capital Management, LP | $82.2 Mil | 5.9% | 36 | TRIM -36.4% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Woodson Capital Management, LP | $34.9 Mil | 5.6% | 28 | TRIM -16.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Hyperion Asset Management Ltd | $151.1 Mil | 4.8% | 18 | TRIM -5.4% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PointState Capital LP | $239.4 Mil | 5.6% | 44 | ADD +93.4% | 13F |
| Dragoneer Investment Group, LLC | $175.6 Mil | 5.9% | 17 | TRIM -41.4% | 13F |
| Hyperion Asset Management Ltd | $151.1 Mil | 4.8% | 18 | TRIM -5.4% | 13F |
| Evergreen Quality Fund GP, Ltd. | $112.6 Mil | 2.6% | 40 | Hold | 13F |
| Ribbit Management Company, LLC | $86.1 Mil | 5.1% | 16 | ADD +23.2% | 13F |
| Opti Capital Management, LP | $82.2 Mil | 5.9% | 36 | TRIM -36.4% | 13F |
| Glenview Capital Management, LLC | $82.1 Mil | 2.2% | 41 | ADD +60.2% | 13F |
| a16z Capital Management, L.L.C. | $61.2 Mil | 4.7% | 16 | Hold | 13F |
| SC US (TTGP), LTD. | $59.6 Mil | 0.6% | 36 | Hold | 13F |
| Azora Capital LP | $41.8 Mil | 2.8% | 45 | New | 13F |
| Woodson Capital Management, LP | $34.9 Mil | 5.6% | 28 | TRIM -16.1% | 13F |
| Gladstone Capital Management LLP | $11.6 Mil | 1.2% | 32 | TRIM -62.6% | 13F |
| Ravenswood Partners LP | $10.2 Mil | 3.8% | 35 | Hold | 13F |
XYZ Trade Sentinel
Stock Conviction
High Conviction
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is high as Block is demonstrating a rare combination of re-accelerating growth and significant margin expansion. Square's payment volume growth of 14% is at a multi-year high, while the 2027 outlook for at least 15% gross profit growth and 32% adjusted operating margins provides a clear path for continued value creation.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Diversified Financial Platform / Ecosystem(Number of Active Users) x (Transactions & Engagement per User) x (Take Rate / Fee per Service) Increasing the attachment rate of high-margin financial services (lending, banking) and software to the company's large and growing user bases in both the Square and Cash App ecosystems.
Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the
Trefis High Quality Portfolio.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests a successful operational turnaround is underway, with accelerating growth in both core segments and expanding profitability.
Mechanism:
The company is driving growth via accelerating Square payment volumes (14% YoY) and rapid Cash App monetization (27% gross profit growth), while expanding margins toward a 32% target in 2027.
Supporting Evidence:
- Square GPV growth accelerated to 14% YoY, its strongest rate since Q1 2023.
- Cash App gross profit grew 27% YoY, driven by strong lending and commerce.
- Company raised full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $4.15, representing 75% YoY growth.
- Preliminary 2027 outlook calls for at least 15% gross profit growth.
- Management targets a 32% adjusted operating income margin for 2027.
PRIMARY RISK
The preliminary 2027 outlook for 15% gross profit growth implies a deceleration from 2026, while a massive inventory build-up could signal weakening demand and a future write-down.
Mechanism:
A formal 2027 gross profit growth guide below 15% would confirm the slowdown.
Supporting Evidence:
- Inventory growth far outpaced revenue growth of only 9.9% in the latest quarter.
- The 48 percentage point inventory-to-revenue divergence is accelerating.
- Accounts receivable grew 29.3% YoY, nearly three times revenue growth.
- Peers like Shopify and Affirm are growing revenue at over 32% YoY.
- The company faces 'vigorous competition' from well-resourced rivals.
Key KPI Watchlist
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Square Gross Payment Volume (GPV) Growth | 14% year-over-year growth for Q3 2026 - Accelerating | Square's GPV growth has been accelerating, reaching its strongest rate since the first quarter of 2023. Management attributes this to effective go-to-market strategies and increased product velocity, with more new products and features launched in 2026 than in the prior two years combined. |
| Cash App Monthly Transacting Actives Growth | 4% year-over-year growth to 60 million in September 2026 - Turning around | Cash App's user growth has returned to the rate seen earlier in the year after a mid-year slowdown. Management cited the 'Neighborhoods' initiative as a key contributor to the rebound and expects to sustain at least low single-digit growth in 2027 through this and other programs like 'Cash App families'. |
| Cash App Consumer Lending Origination Volume | $19 billion (Q3 2026) | The scale of Cash App's lending activities, a key driver of high-margin growth within the Financial Solutions category. |
Core Investment Debate
Durable Re-acceleration vs. Cyclical Peak
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe the 14% Square GPV growth and 27% Cash App profit growth reflect successful new strategies that will drive sustained performance, justifying the strong 2027 outlook.
CORE TENSION
Can accelerating Square GPV (14% YoY) and Cash App profit (27% YoY) offset a potential 2027 growth slowdown and rising inventory risk?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
BULLISH
The latest evidence favors the bull view. The company delivered a significant beat-and-raise quarter, and the market rewarded the strong forward guidance with a 14% stock reaction.
BEAR VIEW
Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
2/1/2027 | PayPal Earnings Report Watch: Peer PayPal (PYPL) is scheduled to report earnings. |
2/3/2027 | Coinbase Earnings Report Watch: Peer Coinbase Global (COIN) is scheduled to report earnings. |
February 2027 | Peer Results Reframe Growth Story Watch: Commentary from peers on market share gains in BNPL, financial services, or merchant acquiring. |
2/24/2027 | Guidance Confirms Deceleration Watch: Formal 2027 gross profit growth guidance below current market expectations or commentary suggesting further slowing. |
2/24/2027 | Q4 Earnings and 2027 Outlook Watch: Company will report Q4 2026 earnings and share more detailed financial expectations for 2027. |
No set date | Hardware Inventory Write-Down Watch: Mentions of inventory reserves, write-downs, hardware demand, or channel inventory in the next earnings report. |
No set date | AI Strategy Fails Monetization Watch: Lack of customer adoption announcements or monetization details for a recently discussed product and a recently discussed product following the November event. |
November 10th | a recently discussed product and a recently discussed product Event Watch: Company will hold an event to share more about its a recently discussed product ecosystem and introduce a recently discussed product 1.0. |
Key Events in Last 6 Months
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-11-03 | Stock Jumps on Q3 Results Details: Following the earnings report on November 3, 2026, the stock had a two-day reaction of 14.0%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500. | +13.7% $77.08 -> $87.63 |
2026-09-25 | Director Sells Company Stock Details: | -4.5% $76.74 -> $73.31 |
2026-08-05 | Stock Drops After Q2 Earnings Details: The stock had a two-day reaction of -7.0% around the earnings call dated 2026-08-05, underperforming an unchanged S&P 500. | -6.6% $84.64 -> $79.02 |
2026-07-01 | Square Announces AI Integrations Details: The company announced a new ChatGPT app and Claude plugin to help sellers get discovered and transact through AI-powered conversations. | +3.7% $76.00 -> $78.83 |
2026-06-12 | SFS Launches High-Yield Savings Details: | +7.6% $69.09 -> $74.35 |
2026-05-11 | Square Launches Drive-Thru Solution Details: The company unveiled Square for Drive-Thru, a fully integrated solution for quick-service restaurants to streamline order capture, kitchen operations, and customer handoff. | -3.6% $74.85 -> $72.12 |
Risk Management
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: XYZ trades at roughly 36% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 10% for the S&P 500 (3.6x the market). A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
PYPL - a business partner
Mature Incumbent Playa business partner offers exposure to a larger, more established global payments network with higher operating margins of 18.5% and a focus on driving double-digit earnings growth through a strategic transformation.
Core Thesis: An investment in a market leader re-focusing its strategy to drive profitable growth in a competitive environment.
SHOP - a business partner
High-Growth Commerce Platforma business partner provides more direct exposure to the high-growth e-commerce software market, with revenue growth of 32.5% and a comparable gross margin profile to Block at 47.5%.
Core Thesis: An investment in a dominant platform for online merchants that is expanding its addressable market and profitability.
How Is The Market Pricing XYZ?
An intelligence-driven financial technology company leveraging two large, interconnected networks (Square for sellers, Cash App for consumers) to drive growth through product velocity and cross-selling high-margin financial services.
Block is transitioning from a payments processor into an 'intelligence company' by embedding AI tools like a recently discussed product and a recently discussed product into its two core ecosystems. The primary growth engine is increasing the user base of both Square and Cash App and then driving deeper engagement through higher-value services like software, banking, and especially lending. The company's key strategic initiative is to connect these two networks via programs like 'Neighborhoods' to create a compounding, defensible moat.
What will confirm the thesis
Sustained acceleration in Square GPV growth, continued high-double-digit gross profit growth in Cash App, evidence of successful scaling and monetization of the 'Neighborhoods' program, and initial revenue generation from new AI initiatives like a recently discussed product.
What will damage the thesis
A stall in Cash App's user growth, failure to sustain Square's re-acceleration, significant credit losses in the lending portfolio, or an inability to demonstrate a return on AI investments.
Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis
Insider stock sales conducted under pre-scheduled trading plans, as reported in press articles from August and September. General speculation on the future price of Bitcoin.
Repricing Catalyst
The strong Q3 2026 earnings report, which featured a beat on guided metrics, a significant guidance raise for the full year 2026, and a strong preliminary outlook for 2027, leading to a 14% two-day stock reaction.
What XYZ Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on the twelve months through fiscal Q3 2026
Square
$9.4B TTM (37% of Total)What It Is
An integrated ecosystem of over 30 commerce and financial products sold to a diverse range of businesses ('sellers'), from sole proprietors to multi-location enterprises, across industries like services, food, and retail.
Who Pays & How
Sellers pay for Square's solutions to accept payments, manage operations (point-of-sale, inventory, staffing), and access financial services (lending, banking). They choose Square for its cohesive, self-serve platform that avoids the complexity of using multiple vendors.
Primarily transaction-based fees on payment volume (GPV), subscription fees for software bundles, and revenue from hardware sales.
Competition
Competitors include business software providers, payment terminal vendors, merchant acquirers, and banks. PayPal and Global Payments are named as peers.
Some competitors have greater financial resources, larger customer bases, or long-standing exclusive relationships with sellers.
A cohesive and integrated ecosystem of over 30 products, transparent pricing, a strong brand, and rapid innovation, including the development of AI-powered tools like a recently discussed product.
Cash App
$15.9B TTM (62% of Total)What It Is
An ecosystem of financial products and services for consumers, primarily in the U.S., to manage their money, including peer-to-peer payments, a debit card (Cash App Card), stock and Bitcoin investing, tax preparation, and lending (Cash App Borrow, BNPL).
Who Pays & How
Consumers pay fees for specific services like instant deposits to a bank account, credit card-funded peer-to-peer transfers, and fixed fees for short-term loans. They choose Cash App for its brand, broad network, and the simplicity of its integrated product suite.
Primarily transaction and service-based fees. This includes interchange on Cash App Card spending, fees on instant transfers, fees on credit-funded P2P payments, and fees on lending products.
Competition
Competes with money transfer apps, debit card offerings, brokerage firms, tax firms, other financial technology apps, banks, and crypto exchanges. PayPal, Affirm, and Coinbase are named as peers.
Some competitors are established banks or have larger established customer bases.
A differentiated lifestyle brand, the breadth of its network, a wide range of products integrated into one app, and a simple, high-quality customer experience.
XYZ Evolution: Price Return by Era
Started in 2009 · Enabling Seller Payments
The company began as Square, with the initial goal of enabling small businesses, who were previously underserved, to accept card payments using a simple mobile reader.
· Building Ecosystems
Square expanded from a single payment product into a comprehensive commerce ecosystem with over 30 products. Concurrently, the company launched and scaled the Cash App ecosystem, which grew from a simple peer-to-peer payment tool into a broad suite of consumer financial services.
Current · Connecting Networks & Streaming Intelligence
The company is now focused on connecting its two large ecosystems (Square and Cash App) through initiatives like 'Neighborhoods'. It is also transforming its operations and product offerings around artificial intelligence, aiming to 'stream intelligence' to customers through proactive, action-oriented systems like a recently discussed product and a recently discussed product.
Market Appears To Be Aligned With Core Thesis
Price structure is strongly bullish. The regime, trend, and proximity to highs all point towards intact institutional trend. Relative to SPY: Decisively outperforming and improving. Potential evidence of active institutional rotation. Volume and momentum are strongly confirming. The institutional accumulation is evident and momentum is accelerating. Earnings history is mildly supportive. The reaction or drift are positive but not both at full conviction.
① Structure
+4
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
+3
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
+1
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
8 / 12
1
Price Structure & Trend
Uptrend Cooling · -
▾
2
Momentum
Accelerating
▾
3
Relative Strength vs. SPY
Strong Outperformance
▾
4
Institutional Footprint & Volume
Neutral / Mixed
▾
5
Volatility
Normal
▾
6
Key Price Levels
Range · Vol Rising
▾
7
Earnings Reaction History
Inconsistent
▾
8
How the Verdict Is Derived
Three Pillars
▾
Block — Investor Video Playlist
Products & Services
On The Block #7 with Juan Hernandez, Head of Credit & Underwriting, with Matt Ross, Head of IR
Leadership
On The Block #6 with Amrita Ahuja, Block CFO & Foundational Lead, + Matt Ross, Head of IR
Products & Services
On The Block #5 with Willem Avé, Head of Product, Square + Matt Ross, Head of Investor Relations
Products & Services
On The Block #4 with Owen Jennings, Business Lead + Matt Ross, Head of Investor Relations
Products & Services
On The Block #2: Brad Axen, Principal Engineer + Matt Ross, Head of Investor Relations.
Leadership
On The Block: A live conversation with Jack Dorsey, our co-founder and Block Head
Investor / Analyst
2025q3XYZ Block Investor Day 08 CFO Remarks 02
Investor / Analyst
2025q3XYZ Block Investor Day 05 Risk Leader Remarks
Investor / Analyst
2025q3XYZ Block Investor Day 02 Business Leader's Remarks 01
Investor / Analyst
2025q3XYZ Block Investor Day 01 CEO remarks
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Transaction & Payment Processing Services Resources |
| PYMNTS |
| Payments Dive |
| The Paypers |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 11/9/2026