Accelerant (ARX)
Market Price (2/10/2026): $11.39 | Market Cap: $2.3 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Insurance Brokers
Accelerant (ARX)
Market Price (2/10/2026): $11.39Market Cap: $2.3 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Insurance Brokers
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -99% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -31%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -59% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -61% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 61% | High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 160% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 76%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 71% | Key risksARX key risks include [1] executing its pivot to a capital-light risk exchange model amid operational cash flow challenges, Show more. | |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -39% | ||
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 25% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Insurtech Platforms, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -99% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 61% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 76%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 71% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -39% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Insurtech Platforms, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -31%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -59% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -61% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 160% |
| Key risksARX key risks include [1] executing its pivot to a capital-light risk exchange model amid operational cash flow challenges, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Mixed Financial Performance and Priced-In Expectations:
Accelerant (ARX) presented a complex financial picture in its Q3 2025 earnings report on November 13, 2025. While the company reported a significant net loss of $1.367 billion, its adjusted net income surged by 320% year-over-year to $79.8 million, and adjusted earnings per diluted share of $0.38 exceeded consensus estimates of $0.22. However, despite these strong adjusted figures and a 74% increase in revenue, the market's reaction was tempered as much of the positive operational momentum was already "priced in" by investors, leading to limited upward movement.
2. Balanced Analyst Sentiment:
Analyst coverage during this period showed a generally "Moderate Buy" consensus rating for ARX. While several analysts reiterated "Buy" ratings and some increased their price targets in late 2025 and early 2026 (e.g., Citigroup and Citizens JMP upgraded to "Outperform" in December 2025, and Goldman Sachs and Piper Sandler maintained "Buy" ratings in January 2026), Morgan Stanley notably lowered its price target in November 2025. This mix of positive and cautious outlooks contributed to a stable, rather than strongly directional, stock performance.
3. Underlying Operational Strength Offset by Specific Concerns:
Accelerant demonstrated robust operational growth, with third-party gross written premiums (GWP) surging and its Exchange Written Premium growing 17% year-over-year in Q3 2025. The company also expanded its network by adding new third-party insurers, including a Lloyd's facility, and maintained a stable gross loss ratio. However, these positive indicators were counterbalanced by concerns raised by some analysts, such as a decline in the percentage of new third-party premiums and lower-than-expected production guidance for 2026, which likely curbed significant investor enthusiasm.
4. Post-IPO Consolidation:
Following its initial public offering on July 24, 2025, Accelerant's market capitalization saw a substantial decrease from $4.74 billion to $3.03 billion by January 30, 2026. The period under review, beginning after October 31, 2025, appears to represent a phase where the stock had already undergone a significant post-IPO adjustment and was consolidating at a new, lower price level. This stabilization after an earlier, more volatile decline contributed to its relatively consistent trading range. Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -1.7% change in ARX stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -18.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 11.62 | 11.42 | -1.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 425 | 512 | 20.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 4.4 | 3.6 | -18.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 162 | 162 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -1.7% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ARX | -1.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.5% | 10.5% |
| Sector (XLF) | 2.3% | 24.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -58.5% change in ARX stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 2102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 27.54 | 11.42 | -58.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 512 | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | � | 545.8 | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 162 | 162 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ARX | -58.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | 10.0% |
| Sector (XLF) | 2.6% | 21.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 8.8% change in ARX stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312025 | 2102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 10.50 | 11.42 | 8.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 512 | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | � | 545.8 | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 162 | 162 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ARX | 8.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.0% | 10.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | 5.1% | 22.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ARX | 8.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 76.6% | 10.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | 53.2% | 22.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ARX Return | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 56% | -30% | 8% |
| Peers Return | 27% | 19% | 12% | 34% | 3% | -4% | 125% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 2% | 85% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ARX Win Rate | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 25% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 57% | 50% | 62% | 53% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 100% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ARX Max Drawdown | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -30% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -10% | -13% | -10% | -1% | -12% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: RYAN, KNSL, MKL, WRB, ACGL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/10/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
null
nullIn The Past
null
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Accelerant (ARX)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Accelerant (ARX):
- Stripe for insurance program managers
- Shopify for insurance program creation
- AWS for insurance underwriting
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Risk Exchange Platform: A proprietary digital platform connecting specialized underwriting agencies (MGAs) with global risk capital providers to streamline the placement of insurance risks.
- Underwriting Capacity: Provides licensed insurance and reinsurance capacity to Managing General Agents (MGAs), enabling them to underwrite policies across various specialized lines of business.
- Underwriting & Claims Infrastructure: Offers MGAs a comprehensive suite of technology and operational support tools for policy administration, data-driven underwriting analysis, and efficient claims management.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Accelerant (ARX) operates primarily in the business-to-business (B2B) sector, serving other companies within the insurance industry.
Major Customers
Accelerant's core business model revolves around partnering with and providing services to a network of Managing General Underwriters (MGUs) and program administrators. These entities are Accelerant's primary customers.
Accelerant offers these partners a comprehensive platform that includes:
- Underwriting capacity (access to insurance capital)
- Advanced data, analytics, and technology infrastructure
- Regulatory, compliance, and claims support
This enables MGUs and program administrators to focus on their specialized underwriting expertise and distribution within niche markets, while Accelerant manages the underlying risk capital and operational complexities.
Due to the nature of its business model, which relies on a broad and diversified network of these partners rather than a few monolithic clients, Accelerant does not publicly disclose the names of specific "major customers" or individual MGUs that constitute a significant portion of its revenue. These partners are typically private companies.
Therefore, while its customers are other companies, specific public customer companies and their symbols are not available or disclosed by Accelerant.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Jeff Radke, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Jeff Radke has nearly 30 years of experience in the insurance industry, having started his career as an intern at Guy Carpenter. Before co-founding Accelerant in 2018, he drove strategic initiatives at Argo Group for a decade and was previously CEO of the PXRE Group.
Jay Green, Chief Financial Officer
Jay Green serves as Accelerant's Group Chief Financial Officer. He previously worked at Goldman Sachs, where he was a Managing Director and Head of Insurance Structured Finance within the Investment Banking Division, leading the group responsible for alternative capital raising and insurance-linked securitization. Before Goldman Sachs, he held senior roles in the capital markets divisions of Guy Carpenter & Company and Swiss Reinsurance Company.
Christopher Lee-Smith, Co-Founder and Head of Distribution
Christopher Lee-Smith was previously the Global Head of Alternative Distribution for Argo Group, where he led Mergers and Acquisitions, digital distribution channels, and Affinities and Broker Schemes and Facilities. He also served as the Head of Growth Strategies for AON, and before that, he was the COO of Willis and the Head of Change Management for Guy Carpenter.
Frank O'Neill, Co-Founder and Chief Underwriting Officer
Frank O'Neill has a long history of leading reinsurance relationships worldwide. Prior to joining Accelerant, he spent more than two decades at Swiss Re, where he was CEO of the UK and Ireland market as well as for Africa and the Middle East.
Matthew Sternberg, Chief Operating Officer, Risk Exchange
Prior to joining Accelerant, Matthew Sternberg worked at Boston Consulting Group for over a decade, where he was a Managing Director and Partner and co-led the firm's North American insurance practice. Previously, he worked for Goldman Sachs' Investment Banking Division.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Accelerant (symbol: ARX) primarily revolve around its execution and scaling strategy, intense competition within the insurtech sector, and ongoing financial and valuation concerns.
- Execution and Scaling Risks: Accelerant faces significant near-term execution risks related to its operational cash flow challenges and the complex task of scaling its technology-driven risk exchange model while simultaneously reducing net retention. The company's strategy involves a pivot from a capital-intensive underwriter to a capital-light marketplace, and the success of this transition hinges on the effective migration of premiums to third-party Risk Capital Partners without sacrificing fee income. Maintaining high net revenue retention as its member base grows is critical, with any slippage in partner quality or a failure to scale technology ROI potentially derailing its platform strategy.
- Competition: The insurtech sector is highly competitive, and Accelerant faces pressure from both scaled incumbent insurers and well-capitalized insurtech companies. This intense competition could lead to compressed fees and challenges in expanding its market presence and sustaining its data moat and network effects.
- Financial Stability and Valuation Concerns: Despite reporting strong premium growth, Accelerant has experienced stock volatility and concerns over its high valuation multiples, including a high P/E ratio. The company reported a significant net loss of $1.37 billion in Q3 2025, primarily due to non-cash profits interest distribution expenses related to its recent IPO, which, while economically equity-neutral, highlights the complexity of its financial structure and can impact investor perception. High leverage also contributes to overall financial risk.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The increasing maturation and adoption of **digital marketplaces and API-first platforms** that facilitate direct and highly automated access for specialized underwriting businesses (Managing General Agents or MGAs) to insurance capacity and regulatory infrastructure. These emerging platforms aim to streamline the process of launching and scaling insurance programs by connecting MGAs directly with a broader array of capital providers and offering standardized, technology-driven fronting solutions, potentially bypassing or significantly reducing the need for more integrated, curated program fronting models like Accelerant's.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Accelerant (symbol: ARX) operates a data-driven risk exchange platform that connects specialty insurance underwriters, primarily Managing General Agents (MGAs), with risk capital partners. The company's main services revolve around providing technology, data, and operational support to facilitate the underwriting and management of specialty insurance for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) across various lines, including property, casualty, and other specialty coverages.
The addressable markets for Accelerant's offerings include:
- Global MGA, MGU, and Cover-Holder Market: This market generated approximately $17.3 billion in revenue, with an annual growth rate of about 19%.
- U.S. MGA Market: In the U.S. alone, the MGA market surpassed $102 billion in direct premiums in 2024. This market has shown a notable growth rate, exceeding that of the broader property-casualty market.
- Global Specialty Insurance Technology Sector: This sector is projected to expand significantly, reaching an estimated size of $164 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.7%.
- Global Insurtech Market: The broader insurtech market, which was valued at $14.6 billion in 2021, is forecast to grow at a 49.4% CAGR to reach $162.12 billion by 2027.
Accelerant's operations are concentrated across the U.S., Europe, Canada, and the UK, focusing on small-to-medium commercial clients.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Accelerant (ARX) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key strategies and operational trends:
-
Expansion of the Member Base: Accelerant's growth strategy explicitly includes adding more high-quality members to its data-driven risk exchange platform. The company saw an increase in total members to 248 in the second quarter of 2025, up from 186 in the prior year period.
-
Broadening of Specialty Insurance Product Offerings: A core component of Accelerant's growth algorithm involves expanding its range of specialty products aimed at small and mid-sized businesses. The platform currently operates across 22 countries and offers more than 500 specialty insurance products.
-
Increased Capital from Risk Partners: Accelerant aims to attract more capital from risk partners. The company's business model relies on connecting underwriters of specialty insurance risk with risk capital providers, making the attraction and expansion of these partnerships a crucial driver for revenue.
-
Growth in Exchange Written Premium (EWP): Accelerant generates revenue by charging fees on the Exchange Written Premium (EWP) that flows through its platform. The company reported a significant 42% year-over-year growth in Exchange Written Premium, reaching $1.07 billion in Q2 2025, and $3.8 billion over the trailing twelve months. Forecasted EWP for Q3 2025 is projected to be between $1.01 billion and $1.04 billion, indicating continued expansion.
-
High Net Revenue Retention: Accelerant has demonstrated strong performance in retaining and growing business with its existing members. The net revenue retention rate improved to 151% in Q2 2025 from 135% in the prior year, indicating that current members are increasing their engagement and premium volume on the platform.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Issuance
- Accelerant Holdings (ARX) completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) on July 24, 2025, offering 34,461,152 Class A common shares at a price of $21.00 per share.
- The company itself offered 20,276,280 Common Shares, raising approximately $425.8 million.
- The IPO, including shares sold by existing shareholders and the full exercise of the over-allotment option, generated $832 million and implied a valuation of $6.4 billion at its debut.
Inbound Investments
- Accelerant has raised a total funding of $150 million over two rounds, with the latest being a private equity round of $150 million on June 22, 2023.
- Eldridge Industries participated as an investor in Accelerant's latest funding round.
- Prior to its IPO, Accelerant was backed by investors including billionaire Todd Boehly and Altamont Capital Partners.
Outbound Investments
- Accelerant has strategically acquired MGAs (Managing General Agents) and currently owns 47 MGAs.
- The company holds equity ownership interests in 47 of its 232 member MGAs as part of its selective equity participation strategy.
- In 2023, Accelerant acquired Omega Insurance Holdings in Canada as part of its strategic expansion.
Capital Expenditures
- Capitalized technology development expenditures amounted to ($17.3) million for the second quarter ended June 30, 2025, and ($14.1) million for the same period in the prior year.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Can Accelerant Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 83.92 |
| Mkt Cap | 17.8 |
| Rev LTM | 8,804 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 1,668 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,535 |
| CFO LTM | 1,804 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,770 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 17.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 21.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 28.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 25.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 27.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 24.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 17.8 |
| P/S | 1.9 |
| P/EBIT | 9.9 |
| P/E | 13.6 |
| P/CFO | 8.6 |
| Total Yield | 6.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 11.4% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -3.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 6.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 46.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -12.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -11.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -20.3% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/28/2025 | -26.4% | -29.8% | -49.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | -26.4% | -29.8% | -49.4% |
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | -26.4% | -29.8% | -49.4% |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lee-Smith, Christopher | Co-Founder, Head of Distrib. | Direct | Buy | 12172025 | 13.42 | 14,700 | 197,240 | 236,894,579 | Form |
| 2 | Meriwether, Karen Sue | Direct | Buy | 12092025 | 14.67 | 542 | 7,951 | 143,057 | Form | |
| 3 | Gaynor, Samuel | Direct | Buy | 11202025 | 13.44 | 7,500 | 100,774 | 100,774 | Form | |
| 4 | Oneill, Francis James | Co-Founder, Chief U/W Officer | Direct | Buy | 11202025 | 13.34 | 38,000 | 506,810 | 96,495,586 | Form |
| 5 | Sternberg, Matthew David | COO, Risk Exchange | Direct | Buy | 11192025 | 13.10 | 5,700 | 74,696 | 2,070,039 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Insurance Brokers Resources |
| Insurance Business America |
| A.M. Best |
| National Underwriter |
| Insurance News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.