Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -80%

Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47%

Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 14%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Insurtech Platforms, Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -38%

Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -50%

High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 162%

Key risks
ARX key risks include [1] executing its pivot to a capital-light risk exchange model amid operational cash flow challenges, Show more.

0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -80%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47%
3 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 14%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Insurtech Platforms, Show more.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -38%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -50%
7 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 162%
8 Key risks
ARX key risks include [1] executing its pivot to a capital-light risk exchange model amid operational cash flow challenges, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Accelerant (ARX) stock has lost about 20% since 12/31/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Persistent Net Losses Despite Revenue Growth and Adjusted Profitability. While Accelerant reported strong Q4 2025 results with a 30% year-over-year revenue increase to $248 million and a 52% surge in Adjusted EBITDA to $71 million, the company also reported a significant net loss. For Q4 2025, net income was a small loss of $0.6 million, a substantial decline from a $21 million profit in Q4 2024. The full fiscal year 2025 saw a net loss of approximately $1.4 billion and a trailing twelve-month basic EPS loss of $7.49, indicating underlying profitability challenges that may be overshadowing positive operational metrics.

2. Underwriting Pressures Reflected in Missed Net Earned Premiums. The company's net earned premiums for Q4 2025 significantly missed analyst estimates, coming in at $82.4 million against an expectation of $104.4 million. This 21% miss suggests potential underwriting pressures within Accelerant's operations, which could concern investors despite the ongoing strategic shift towards a capital-light, fee-based business model.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -18.0% change in ARX stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).
(LTM values as of)123120254042026Change
Stock Price ($)16.3513.40-18.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)5160.0%
Net Income Margin (%)0.7%0.0%
P/E Multiple781.40.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1621620.0%
Cumulative Contribution0.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/31/2025 to 4/4/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ARX-18.0% 
Market (SPY)-5.4%10.0%
Sector (XLF)-9.6%28.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The -10.0% change in ARX stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).
(LTM values as of)93020254042026Change
Stock Price ($)14.8913.40-10.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)4300.0%
P/S Multiple5.60.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1621620.0%
Cumulative Contribution0.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/30/2025 to 4/4/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ARX-9.9% 
Market (SPY)-2.9%11.8%
Sector (XLF)-7.7%34.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The 27.6% change in ARX stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)33120254042026Change
Stock Price ($)10.5013.4027.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)0.0%
Net Income Margin (%)0.0%
P/E Multiple0.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1621620.0%
Cumulative Contribution0.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2025 to 4/4/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ARX27.7% 
Market (SPY)16.3%8.0%
Sector (XLF)0.5%24.6%

Fundamental Drivers

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Market Drivers

3/31/2023 to 4/4/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ARX27.7% 
Market (SPY)63.3%8.0%
Sector (XLF)60.9%24.6%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
ARX Return0%0%0%0%56%-21%23%
Peers Return27%19%12%34%3%-13%103%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%-4%75%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ARX Win Rate0%0%0%0%25%25% 
Peers Win Rate67%57%50%62%53%30% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ARX Max Drawdown0%0%0%0%0%-43% 
Peers Max Drawdown-10%-13%-10%-1%-12%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-7% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: RYAN, KNSL, MKL, WRB, ACGL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/2/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

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In The Past

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About Accelerant (ARX)

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AI Analysis | Feedback

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  • Insurtech Platform for MGAs: Accelerant offers a proprietary technology platform that empowers Managing General Agents (MGAs) to underwrite, manage, and grow their insurance programs.
  • Risk Capital & Reinsurance Access: They provide MGAs with access to a diverse ecosystem of global risk capital, including traditional reinsurers and alternative capital providers.
  • Data & Analytics Tools: Accelerant furnishes MGAs with advanced data analytics and actuarial insights to enhance underwriting precision and optimize portfolio performance.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Accelerant (ARX) primarily sells its underwriting-as-a-service platform and capacity to other companies within the insurance industry. Its major customers are:

  • Managing General Agents (MGAs): These companies act as intermediaries between insurers and policyholders, specializing in specific niches and underwriting on behalf of insurers. Accelerant provides them with the platform, data, and capacity needed to operate and grow their businesses.
  • Specialist Underwriters: Similar to MGAs, these are entities focused on underwriting complex or niche risks, who leverage Accelerant's infrastructure to enhance their underwriting capabilities and access market capacity.

Due to the nature of Accelerant's platform business model, which serves a network of specialist insurance entities, specific public companies are not typically identified as "major customers" in the traditional sense, but rather the broad category of MGAs and specialist underwriters.

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Jeff Radke, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Jeff Radke is a Co-Founder and the Chief Executive Officer of Accelerant. He has nearly 30 years of experience in the insurance industry. Before co-founding Accelerant in 2018, he spent a decade driving strategic initiatives at Argo Group and previously served as CEO of the PXRE Group. Under his leadership, Accelerant reached unicorn status in 2022 with a valuation of $2.1 billion after raising over $190 million, and has since raised over $500 million in funding.

Jay Green, Group Chief Financial Officer

Jay Green serves as Accelerant's Group Chief Financial Officer, a role he assumed in November 2022. Prior to joining Accelerant, he was a Managing Director and Head of Insurance Structured Finance within the Investment Banking Division at Goldman Sachs, where he led the team responsible for alternative capital raising and insurance-linked securitization. Before his tenure at Goldman Sachs, he held senior roles in the capital markets divisions of Guy Carpenter & Company and Swiss Reinsurance Company.

Frank O'Neill, Co-Founder and Chief Underwriting Officer

Frank O'Neill is a Co-Founder and the Chief Underwriting Officer at Accelerant. He has a long history of leading reinsurance relationships worldwide. Before joining Accelerant, Frank spent over two decades at Swiss Re, where he was CEO for the UK and Ireland market, as well as for Africa and the Middle East. Prior to that, he led the Life and Health sectors for the U.S. market for five years and for Southeast Asia for two years.

Matt Sternberg, Chief Operating Officer, Risk Exchange

Matt Sternberg is the Chief Operating Officer, Risk Exchange, at Accelerant. Before his time at Accelerant, he spent over a decade at Boston Consulting Group, where he served as a Managing Director and Partner and co-led the firm's North American insurance practice. Earlier in his career, Matt also worked in Goldman Sachs' Investment Banking Division.

Pete Horst, Chief Technology Officer

Pete Horst is Accelerant's Chief Technology Officer. He most recently served as Vice President of Engineering for the business analytics platform Qlik, where he was instrumental in bringing their platform to the cloud as an Enterprise SaaS offering. Before Qlik, Horst held software development and engineering roles at IBM and Cognos.

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Key Risks to Accelerant (ARX)

Accelerant (ARX) operates as a data-driven, technology-fueled insurance platform connecting specialty insurance underwriters with risk capital partners, primarily serving small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The key risks to its business include:

  1. AI Disruption and Evolving Insurtech Solutions: Despite Accelerant being a technology-driven company, the broader insurance broker sector faces significant headwinds from the potential for AI disruption. Analysts estimate that substantial industry commissions could be at risk from AI-powered automation, and the emergence of new insurtech solutions or AI-powered comparison tools could disrupt traditional insurance distribution models, intensifying competition or potentially bypassing intermediaries like Accelerant.
  2. Dependency on Third-Party Risk Capital Providers: Accelerant's core business model relies heavily on its network of risk capital partners who provide underwriting capacity. If these third-party partners cease to perceive value in the Accelerant platform or choose to withdraw their capital, the entire risk exchange system could weaken, directly impacting Accelerant's operations and revenue generation.
  3. Limited Operating Track Record and Profitability Challenges: Founded in 2018, Accelerant does not possess a long track record, raising questions about the sustained success of its underwriting processes, especially during adverse market conditions. Furthermore, the company has faced significant profitability challenges, reporting substantial net losses despite revenue growth. While future profitability is projected, sustained losses and the need to justify its valuation in light of these financial results remain a significant risk for investors.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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Accelerant (ARX) operates a data-driven risk exchange platform that connects specialty insurance underwriters (Managing General Agents) with risk capital partners, primarily serving small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) across various specialty insurance lines. The company's key operating regions include the United States, United Kingdom, Europe, and Canada.

The addressable markets for Accelerant's main products and services, which revolve around facilitating specialty insurance for SMEs, are substantial across its operating regions:

  • Global SME Insurance Market: This market was valued at approximately USD 417.2 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow to about USD 793.8 billion by 2032, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 7% between 2024 and 2032. Another estimate places the global SME insurance market size at USD 295 billion in 2024, with a projected growth to USD 528 billion by 2034 at a CAGR of 6.0%.
  • North America SME Insurance Market: This region held a dominant share of the global SME insurance market, with approximately 40% of the global revenue in 2024, equating to a market size of about USD 9.4 billion.
    • U.S. SME Insurance Market: In 2024, the U.S. SME insurance market was valued at USD 100.1 billion and is anticipated to reach approximately USD 158.5 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 4.7% from 2025 to 2034.
    • Canada Commercial Insurance Market (inclusive of SMEs): The Canadian commercial insurance market reached USD 18.45 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 33.39 billion by 2033, demonstrating a CAGR of 6.11% during the forecast period from 2025 to 2033.
  • Europe SME Insurance Market: The European SME insurance market was valued at USD 7.05 billion in 2024 and is expected to expand at a CAGR of 5.0% from 2024 to 2031.
    • UK SME Insurance Market: The UK SME insurance market generated approximately GBP 15.52 billion (around USD 19.8 billion) in gross written premiums in 2023. It is forecasted to reach GBP 17.32 billion (around USD 22.17 billion) by 2027, with a CAGR of 4.4% over 2022-2027.

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Accelerant (ARX) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:

  1. Growth in Exchange Written Premium and Member Base: Accelerant's core business model relies on its Risk Exchange platform, and the company has demonstrated strong growth in both Exchange Written Premium (EWP) and its member count. In Q2 2025, Accelerant reported a 68% year-over-year revenue increase, propelled by a 42% growth in exchange written premium. The company continued this trend in Q3 2025, with EWP reaching $1.043 billion, marking a 17% year-over-year increase, and its member count expanding to 265 with 17 net additions in the quarter. Furthermore, net revenue retention stood at 135% for Q3 2025, indicating strong ongoing business with existing members. This sustained expansion of its network of specialty underwriters and risk capital partners is a primary driver of revenue growth.
  2. Increasing Third-Party Direct Written Premium: Accelerant is strategically transitioning towards a more capital-light model by increasing the proportion of direct written premium from third-party insurers. Projections for Q4 2025 indicate that third-party direct written premium is expected to comprise 40% of the Exchange Written Premium, a significant rise from 21% in Q4 2024. The company aims for two-thirds of its portfolio to be written by third-party insurers within the next 3-5 years, a shift anticipated to enhance the platform's scalability and profitability. This strategic focus allows Accelerant to generate more fee-based revenue while optimizing its capital deployment.
  3. Technological Innovation and Data-Driven Underwriting: Accelerant leverages proprietary data analytics, artificial intelligence, and machine learning to improve efficiency and accuracy within the specialty insurance market. The company has introduced innovative products, including machine learning-led risk indices, and utilizes large language models to identify claim reimbursement opportunities more effectively. Significant advancements in data infrastructure have expanded unique data attributes from 23,000 to 57,000, which in turn fuels improvements in their risk models. This technological advantage enhances pricing precision, optimizes capital allocation, and streamlines claims management, creating a competitive differentiator and a foundation for future revenue generation.
  4. Global Expansion and Diversification into Broader Specialty Lines: While Accelerant primarily generates revenue from the UK and EU markets, the company is actively pursuing global expansion and exploring new market segments. Its technology-driven marketplace model positions it uniquely in the financial services sector, allowing for broader geographic reach and potential expansion into new verticals within specialty property and casualty (P&C) insurance. Additionally, the company is looking into larger account businesses, such as workers' compensation, indicating an intent to grow into more complex and substantial business segments.

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Share Issuance

  • Accelerant Holdings completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) on July 24, 2025, listing its Class A common shares on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol ARX.
  • The company issued 20,276,280 Class A common shares in its IPO at a public price of $21.00 per share.
  • Accelerant received $426 million in proceeds from the sale of its shares in the IPO.

Inbound Investments

  • Prior to its IPO, Accelerant was backed by private equity firm Altamont Capital Partners, which retained approximately 79.2% of voting power post-offering through Class B shares.
  • The Initial Public Offering in July 2025 served as a significant inbound investment, raising $426 million for Accelerant.

Capital Expenditures

  • Accelerant focuses its capital on technology and data infrastructure, evident by significant advancements that expanded unique data attributes from 23,000 to 57,000, which fuels risk model improvements.

Latest Trefis Analyses

TitleDate
0DASHBOARDS 
1Can Accelerant Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn?10/17/2025
Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select ideas related to ARX.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
HBAN_3312026_Insider_Buying_45D_2Buy_200K03312026HBANHuntington BancsharesInsiderInsider Buys 45DStrong Insider Buying
Companies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days
0.0%0.0%0.0%
NP_3312026_Insider_Buying_45D_2Buy_200K03312026NPNeptune InsuranceInsiderInsider Buys 45DStrong Insider Buying
Companies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days
0.0%0.0%0.0%
JKHY_3272026_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper03272026JKHYJack Henry & AssociatesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
3.1%3.1%0.0%
MKTX_3202026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03202026MKTXMarketAxessDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.2%-5.2%-5.7%
RYAN_3202026_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE_V203202026RYANRyan SpecialtyInsiderInsider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider Buying
Companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
-2.7%-2.7%-8.5%
ARX_11302025_Insider_Buying_45D_2Buy_200K11302025ARXAccelerantInsiderInsider Buys 45DStrong Insider Buying
Companies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days
-8.3%-8.3%-35.8%

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ARXRYANKNSLMKLWRBACGLMedian
NameAccelera.Ryan Spe.Kinsale .Markel WR Berkl.Arch Cap. 
Mkt Price13.4033.51344.001,897.1865.9996.7481.36
Mkt Cap3.04.37.923.526.234.815.7
Rev LTM8653,0511,87416,33314,64019,2948,845
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM4045769902,5543,4136,1281,772
FCF 3Y Avg-4979322,4743,2876,1492,474
CFO LTM4456441,0442,7613,5836,1721,902
CFO 3Y Avg-5459602,7143,3976,1982,714

Growth & Margins

ARXRYANKNSLMKLWRBACGLMedian
NameAccelera.Ryan Spe.Kinsale .Markel WR Berkl.Arch Cap. 
Rev Chg LTM45.9%21.3%18.0%-2.5%6.9%14.0%16.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-20.9%31.5%12.4%9.3%26.5%20.9%
Rev Chg Q14.7%13.2%17.3%4.7%-0.1%5.6%9.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.2%3.0%3.9%1.2%-0.0%1.3%2.1%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM51.5%21.1%55.7%16.9%24.5%32.0%28.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-21.5%62.5%16.7%25.2%38.2%25.2%
FCF/Rev LTM46.7%18.9%52.8%15.6%23.3%31.8%27.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-19.7%60.8%15.2%24.4%37.9%24.4%

Valuation

ARXRYANKNSLMKLWRBACGLMedian
NameAccelera.Ryan Spe.Kinsale .Markel WR Berkl.Arch Cap. 
Mkt Cap3.04.37.923.526.234.815.7
P/S3.41.44.21.41.81.81.8
P/EBIT-2.48.412.38.010.96.88.2
P/E-2.268.315.711.114.77.912.9
P/CFO6.76.77.68.57.35.67.0
Total Yield-45.5%2.9%6.5%9.0%9.5%12.7%7.7%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.4%0.2%0.0%2.7%0.0%0.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-7.8%10.3%11.2%14.2%19.2%11.2%
D/E0.00.80.00.20.10.10.1
Net D/E-0.80.8-0.3-0.3-0.9-0.3-0.3

Returns

ARXRYANKNSLMKLWRBACGLMedian
NameAccelera.Ryan Spe.Kinsale .Markel WR Berkl.Arch Cap. 
1M Rtn14.4%-14.8%-9.1%-6.1%-5.1%-0.3%-5.6%
3M Rtn-14.2%-33.6%-12.3%-10.9%-4.7%3.1%-11.6%
6M Rtn-10.1%-41.8%-26.1%-2.3%-12.7%6.6%-11.4%
12M Rtn27.6%-52.0%-24.9%10.1%3.5%10.1%6.8%
3Y Rtn27.6%-15.5%15.1%46.2%70.8%48.3%36.9%
1M Excs Rtn22.4%-11.0%-6.1%-2.8%-2.1%2.5%-2.5%
3M Excs Rtn-14.2%-31.0%-8.2%-7.9%-1.9%4.7%-8.0%
6M Excs Rtn-3.5%-36.2%-15.6%2.5%-9.1%9.0%-6.3%
12M Excs Rtn10.8%-71.0%-46.2%-14.8%-20.4%-16.2%-18.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-38.1%-77.0%-49.2%-12.5%8.5%-13.5%-25.8%

Comparison Analyses

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Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment
$ Mil2025202420232022
Underwriting5,590   
Exchange Services654   
Managing general agent (MGA) Operations303   
Corporate and eliminations-452   
Total6,095   


Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date3132026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2.3 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 22820269.7%
Average Daily Volume0.9 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.6 days
Basic Shares Quantity222.2 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares1.0%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
2/27/202610.2%9.3%21.5%
8/28/2025-26.4%-29.8%-49.4%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111
# Negative111
Median Positive10.2%9.3%21.5%
Median Negative-26.4%-29.8%-49.4%
Max Positive10.2%9.3%21.5%
Max Negative-26.4%-29.8%-49.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
12/31/202503/18/202610-K
09/30/202511/12/202510-Q
06/30/202508/28/202510-Q
03/31/202507/25/2025424B4
09/30/202311/29/2023DRS/A
12/31/202210/20/2023DRS

Insider Activity

Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Lee-Smith, ChristopherCo-Founder, Head of Distrib.DirectBuy1217202513.4214,700197,240236,894,579Form
2Meriwether, Karen Sue DirectBuy1209202514.675427,951143,057Form
3Gaynor, Samuel DirectBuy1120202513.447,500100,774100,774Form
4Oneill, Francis JamesCo-Founder, Chief U/W OfficerDirectBuy1120202513.3438,000506,81096,495,586Form
5Sternberg, Matthew DavidCOO, Risk ExchangeDirectBuy1119202513.105,70074,6962,070,039Form