Accelerant (ARX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $14.34 | Market Cap: $3.2 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Insurance Brokers
Accelerant (ARX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $14.34Market Cap: $3.2 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Insurance Brokers
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -90% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -16%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -38% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 37x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 172x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 91%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 86% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.7% | |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 24% | High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 159% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Insurtech Platforms, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -90% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 91%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 86% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 24% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Insurtech Platforms, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -16%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -38% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 37x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 172x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.7% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 159% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ARX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Accelerant experienced a significant stock decline around August 30, 2025, falling nearly 10% within a week due to broader market weaknesses, economic pressures, declining investor confidence, stressed liquidity, and a high leverage ratio.
2. The company reported a substantial Q3 2025 GAAP net loss of -$1.44 billion, primarily driven by a non-cash, equity-neutral $1.38 billion profits interest distribution expense related to IPO accounting. This large reported loss overshadowed positive adjusted earnings and revenue.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ARX Return | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 38% | 38% |
| Peers Return | 5% | 27% | -3% | 7% | 19% | -11% | 47% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ARX Win Rate | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 65% | 38% | 43% | 58% | 42% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ARX Max Drawdown | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -27% | -9% | -19% | -7% | -1% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NP, WTW, MMC, AON, AJG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
In The Past
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Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| With Accelerant Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ARX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Accelerant
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 214.62 |
| Mkt Cap | 62.9 |
| Rev LTM | 12,471 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,540 |
| FCF LTM | 1,972 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,447 |
| CFO LTM | 2,120 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,651 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 23.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 62.9 |
| P/S | 3.7 |
| P/EBIT | 18.0 |
| P/E | 28.3 |
| P/CFO | 21.1 |
| Total Yield | 4.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.1% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -14.6% |
| 6M Rtn | -13.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -14.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 20.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -19.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -28.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -29.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -50.8% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8282025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 7252025 | 424B4 12/31/2024 |
| 9302023 | 11292023 | DRS/A 9/30/2023 |
| 12312022 | 10202023 | DRS 12/31/2022 |
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Insurance Brokers Resources |
| Insurance Business America |
| A.M. Best |
| National Underwriter |
| Insurance News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |