Accelerant (ARX)
Market Price (4/4/2026): $13.4 | Market Cap: $3.0 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Insurance Brokers
Accelerant (ARX)
Market Price (4/4/2026): $13.4Market Cap: $3.0 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Insurance Brokers
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -80% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47% Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 14% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Insurtech Platforms, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -38% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -50% High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 162% Key risksARX key risks include [1] executing its pivot to a capital-light risk exchange model amid operational cash flow challenges, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -80% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 14% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Insurtech Platforms, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -38% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -50% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 162% |
| Key risksARX key risks include [1] executing its pivot to a capital-light risk exchange model amid operational cash flow challenges, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Persistent Net Losses Despite Revenue Growth and Adjusted Profitability. While Accelerant reported strong Q4 2025 results with a 30% year-over-year revenue increase to $248 million and a 52% surge in Adjusted EBITDA to $71 million, the company also reported a significant net loss. For Q4 2025, net income was a small loss of $0.6 million, a substantial decline from a $21 million profit in Q4 2024. The full fiscal year 2025 saw a net loss of approximately $1.4 billion and a trailing twelve-month basic EPS loss of $7.49, indicating underlying profitability challenges that may be overshadowing positive operational metrics.
2. Underwriting Pressures Reflected in Missed Net Earned Premiums. The company's net earned premiums for Q4 2025 significantly missed analyst estimates, coming in at $82.4 million against an expectation of $104.4 million. This 21% miss suggests potential underwriting pressures within Accelerant's operations, which could concern investors despite the ongoing strategic shift towards a capital-light, fee-based business model.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -18.0% change in ARX stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 16.35 | 13.40 | -18.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 516 | � | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.7% | � | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 781.4 | � | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 162 | 162 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ARX | -18.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 10.0% |
| Sector (XLF) | -9.6% | 28.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -10.0% change in ARX stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 14.89 | 13.40 | -10.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 430 | � | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 5.6 | � | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 162 | 162 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ARX | -9.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 11.8% |
| Sector (XLF) | -7.7% | 34.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 27.6% change in ARX stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 10.50 | 13.40 | 27.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | � | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | � | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | � | � | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 162 | 162 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ARX | 27.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 8.0% |
| Sector (XLF) | 0.5% | 24.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ARX | 27.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 8.0% |
| Sector (XLF) | 60.9% | 24.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ARX Return | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 56% | -21% | 23% |
| Peers Return | 27% | 19% | 12% | 34% | 3% | -13% | 103% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -4% | 75% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ARX Win Rate | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 25% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 57% | 50% | 62% | 53% | 30% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ARX Max Drawdown | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -43% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -10% | -13% | -10% | -1% | -12% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: RYAN, KNSL, MKL, WRB, ACGL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/2/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
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About Accelerant (ARX)
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- Insurtech Platform for MGAs: Accelerant offers a proprietary technology platform that empowers Managing General Agents (MGAs) to underwrite, manage, and grow their insurance programs.
- Risk Capital & Reinsurance Access: They provide MGAs with access to a diverse ecosystem of global risk capital, including traditional reinsurers and alternative capital providers.
- Data & Analytics Tools: Accelerant furnishes MGAs with advanced data analytics and actuarial insights to enhance underwriting precision and optimize portfolio performance.
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Accelerant (ARX) primarily sells its underwriting-as-a-service platform and capacity to other companies within the insurance industry. Its major customers are:
- Managing General Agents (MGAs): These companies act as intermediaries between insurers and policyholders, specializing in specific niches and underwriting on behalf of insurers. Accelerant provides them with the platform, data, and capacity needed to operate and grow their businesses.
- Specialist Underwriters: Similar to MGAs, these are entities focused on underwriting complex or niche risks, who leverage Accelerant's infrastructure to enhance their underwriting capabilities and access market capacity.
Due to the nature of Accelerant's platform business model, which serves a network of specialist insurance entities, specific public companies are not typically identified as "major customers" in the traditional sense, but rather the broad category of MGAs and specialist underwriters.
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Jeff Radke, Co-Founder and Chief Executive OfficerJeff Radke is a Co-Founder and the Chief Executive Officer of Accelerant. He has nearly 30 years of experience in the insurance industry. Before co-founding Accelerant in 2018, he spent a decade driving strategic initiatives at Argo Group and previously served as CEO of the PXRE Group. Under his leadership, Accelerant reached unicorn status in 2022 with a valuation of $2.1 billion after raising over $190 million, and has since raised over $500 million in funding.
Jay Green, Group Chief Financial OfficerJay Green serves as Accelerant's Group Chief Financial Officer, a role he assumed in November 2022. Prior to joining Accelerant, he was a Managing Director and Head of Insurance Structured Finance within the Investment Banking Division at Goldman Sachs, where he led the team responsible for alternative capital raising and insurance-linked securitization. Before his tenure at Goldman Sachs, he held senior roles in the capital markets divisions of Guy Carpenter & Company and Swiss Reinsurance Company.
Frank O'Neill, Co-Founder and Chief Underwriting OfficerFrank O'Neill is a Co-Founder and the Chief Underwriting Officer at Accelerant. He has a long history of leading reinsurance relationships worldwide. Before joining Accelerant, Frank spent over two decades at Swiss Re, where he was CEO for the UK and Ireland market, as well as for Africa and the Middle East. Prior to that, he led the Life and Health sectors for the U.S. market for five years and for Southeast Asia for two years.
Matt Sternberg, Chief Operating Officer, Risk ExchangeMatt Sternberg is the Chief Operating Officer, Risk Exchange, at Accelerant. Before his time at Accelerant, he spent over a decade at Boston Consulting Group, where he served as a Managing Director and Partner and co-led the firm's North American insurance practice. Earlier in his career, Matt also worked in Goldman Sachs' Investment Banking Division.
Pete Horst, Chief Technology OfficerPete Horst is Accelerant's Chief Technology Officer. He most recently served as Vice President of Engineering for the business analytics platform Qlik, where he was instrumental in bringing their platform to the cloud as an Enterprise SaaS offering. Before Qlik, Horst held software development and engineering roles at IBM and Cognos.
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Key Risks to Accelerant (ARX)
Accelerant (ARX) operates as a data-driven, technology-fueled insurance platform connecting specialty insurance underwriters with risk capital partners, primarily serving small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The key risks to its business include:
- AI Disruption and Evolving Insurtech Solutions: Despite Accelerant being a technology-driven company, the broader insurance broker sector faces significant headwinds from the potential for AI disruption. Analysts estimate that substantial industry commissions could be at risk from AI-powered automation, and the emergence of new insurtech solutions or AI-powered comparison tools could disrupt traditional insurance distribution models, intensifying competition or potentially bypassing intermediaries like Accelerant.
- Dependency on Third-Party Risk Capital Providers: Accelerant's core business model relies heavily on its network of risk capital partners who provide underwriting capacity. If these third-party partners cease to perceive value in the Accelerant platform or choose to withdraw their capital, the entire risk exchange system could weaken, directly impacting Accelerant's operations and revenue generation.
- Limited Operating Track Record and Profitability Challenges: Founded in 2018, Accelerant does not possess a long track record, raising questions about the sustained success of its underwriting processes, especially during adverse market conditions. Furthermore, the company has faced significant profitability challenges, reporting substantial net losses despite revenue growth. While future profitability is projected, sustained losses and the need to justify its valuation in light of these financial results remain a significant risk for investors.
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Accelerant (ARX) operates a data-driven risk exchange platform that connects specialty insurance underwriters (Managing General Agents) with risk capital partners, primarily serving small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) across various specialty insurance lines. The company's key operating regions include the United States, United Kingdom, Europe, and Canada.
The addressable markets for Accelerant's main products and services, which revolve around facilitating specialty insurance for SMEs, are substantial across its operating regions:
- Global SME Insurance Market: This market was valued at approximately USD 417.2 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow to about USD 793.8 billion by 2032, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 7% between 2024 and 2032. Another estimate places the global SME insurance market size at USD 295 billion in 2024, with a projected growth to USD 528 billion by 2034 at a CAGR of 6.0%.
- North America SME Insurance Market: This region held a dominant share of the global SME insurance market, with approximately 40% of the global revenue in 2024, equating to a market size of about USD 9.4 billion.
- U.S. SME Insurance Market: In 2024, the U.S. SME insurance market was valued at USD 100.1 billion and is anticipated to reach approximately USD 158.5 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 4.7% from 2025 to 2034.
- Canada Commercial Insurance Market (inclusive of SMEs): The Canadian commercial insurance market reached USD 18.45 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 33.39 billion by 2033, demonstrating a CAGR of 6.11% during the forecast period from 2025 to 2033.
- Europe SME Insurance Market: The European SME insurance market was valued at USD 7.05 billion in 2024 and is expected to expand at a CAGR of 5.0% from 2024 to 2031.
- UK SME Insurance Market: The UK SME insurance market generated approximately GBP 15.52 billion (around USD 19.8 billion) in gross written premiums in 2023. It is forecasted to reach GBP 17.32 billion (around USD 22.17 billion) by 2027, with a CAGR of 4.4% over 2022-2027.
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Accelerant (ARX) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
- Growth in Exchange Written Premium and Member Base: Accelerant's core business model relies on its Risk Exchange platform, and the company has demonstrated strong growth in both Exchange Written Premium (EWP) and its member count. In Q2 2025, Accelerant reported a 68% year-over-year revenue increase, propelled by a 42% growth in exchange written premium. The company continued this trend in Q3 2025, with EWP reaching $1.043 billion, marking a 17% year-over-year increase, and its member count expanding to 265 with 17 net additions in the quarter. Furthermore, net revenue retention stood at 135% for Q3 2025, indicating strong ongoing business with existing members. This sustained expansion of its network of specialty underwriters and risk capital partners is a primary driver of revenue growth.
- Increasing Third-Party Direct Written Premium: Accelerant is strategically transitioning towards a more capital-light model by increasing the proportion of direct written premium from third-party insurers. Projections for Q4 2025 indicate that third-party direct written premium is expected to comprise 40% of the Exchange Written Premium, a significant rise from 21% in Q4 2024. The company aims for two-thirds of its portfolio to be written by third-party insurers within the next 3-5 years, a shift anticipated to enhance the platform's scalability and profitability. This strategic focus allows Accelerant to generate more fee-based revenue while optimizing its capital deployment.
- Technological Innovation and Data-Driven Underwriting: Accelerant leverages proprietary data analytics, artificial intelligence, and machine learning to improve efficiency and accuracy within the specialty insurance market. The company has introduced innovative products, including machine learning-led risk indices, and utilizes large language models to identify claim reimbursement opportunities more effectively. Significant advancements in data infrastructure have expanded unique data attributes from 23,000 to 57,000, which in turn fuels improvements in their risk models. This technological advantage enhances pricing precision, optimizes capital allocation, and streamlines claims management, creating a competitive differentiator and a foundation for future revenue generation.
- Global Expansion and Diversification into Broader Specialty Lines: While Accelerant primarily generates revenue from the UK and EU markets, the company is actively pursuing global expansion and exploring new market segments. Its technology-driven marketplace model positions it uniquely in the financial services sector, allowing for broader geographic reach and potential expansion into new verticals within specialty property and casualty (P&C) insurance. Additionally, the company is looking into larger account businesses, such as workers' compensation, indicating an intent to grow into more complex and substantial business segments.
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Share Issuance
- Accelerant Holdings completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) on July 24, 2025, listing its Class A common shares on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol ARX.
- The company issued 20,276,280 Class A common shares in its IPO at a public price of $21.00 per share.
- Accelerant received $426 million in proceeds from the sale of its shares in the IPO.
Inbound Investments
- Prior to its IPO, Accelerant was backed by private equity firm Altamont Capital Partners, which retained approximately 79.2% of voting power post-offering through Class B shares.
- The Initial Public Offering in July 2025 served as a significant inbound investment, raising $426 million for Accelerant.
Capital Expenditures
- Accelerant focuses its capital on technology and data infrastructure, evident by significant advancements that expanded unique data attributes from 23,000 to 57,000, which fuels risk model improvements.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Can Accelerant Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to ARX.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03312026 | HBAN | Huntington Bancshares | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03312026 | NP | Neptune Insurance | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | JKHY | Jack Henry & Associates | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 03202026 | MKTX | MarketAxess | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.2% | -5.2% | -5.7% |
| 03202026 | RYAN | Ryan Specialty | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -2.7% | -2.7% | -8.5% |
| 11302025 | ARX | Accelerant | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | -8.3% | -8.3% | -35.8% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 81.36 |
| Mkt Cap | 15.7 |
| Rev LTM | 8,845 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 1,772 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,474 |
| CFO LTM | 1,902 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,714 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 16.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 20.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 28.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 25.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 27.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 24.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 15.7 |
| P/S | 1.8 |
| P/EBIT | 8.2 |
| P/E | 12.9 |
| P/CFO | 7.0 |
| Total Yield | 7.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 11.2% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -11.6% |
| 6M Rtn | -11.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 6.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 36.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -6.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -18.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -25.8% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/27/2026 | 10.2% | 9.3% | 21.5% |
| 8/28/2025 | -26.4% | -29.8% | -49.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Median Positive | 10.2% | 9.3% | 21.5% |
| Median Negative | -26.4% | -29.8% | -49.4% |
| Max Positive | 10.2% | 9.3% | 21.5% |
| Max Negative | -26.4% | -29.8% | -49.4% |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lee-Smith, Christopher | Co-Founder, Head of Distrib. | Direct | Buy | 12172025 | 13.42 | 14,700 | 197,240 | 236,894,579 | Form |
| 2 | Meriwether, Karen Sue | Direct | Buy | 12092025 | 14.67 | 542 | 7,951 | 143,057 | Form | |
| 3 | Gaynor, Samuel | Direct | Buy | 11202025 | 13.44 | 7,500 | 100,774 | 100,774 | Form | |
| 4 | Oneill, Francis James | Co-Founder, Chief U/W Officer | Direct | Buy | 11202025 | 13.34 | 38,000 | 506,810 | 96,495,586 | Form |
| 5 | Sternberg, Matthew David | COO, Risk Exchange | Direct | Buy | 11192025 | 13.10 | 5,700 | 74,696 | 2,070,039 | Form |
Industry Resources
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| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Insurance Brokers Resources |
| Insurance Business America |
| A.M. Best |
| National Underwriter |
| Insurance News |
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