Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -99%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -31%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -59%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -61%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 61%
  High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 160%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 76%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 71%
  Key risks
ARX key risks include [1] executing its pivot to a capital-light risk exchange model amid operational cash flow challenges, Show more.
3 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -39%
  
4 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 25%
  
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Insurtech Platforms, Show more.
  
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -99%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 61%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 76%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 71%
3 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -39%
4 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 25%
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Insurtech Platforms, Show more.
6 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -31%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -59%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -61%
8 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 160%
9 Key risks
ARX key risks include [1] executing its pivot to a capital-light risk exchange model amid operational cash flow challenges, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Accelerant (ARX) stock has remained largely at the same level since 10/31/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Mixed Financial Performance and Priced-In Expectations:

Accelerant (ARX) presented a complex financial picture in its Q3 2025 earnings report on November 13, 2025. While the company reported a significant net loss of $1.367 billion, its adjusted net income surged by 320% year-over-year to $79.8 million, and adjusted earnings per diluted share of $0.38 exceeded consensus estimates of $0.22. However, despite these strong adjusted figures and a 74% increase in revenue, the market's reaction was tempered as much of the positive operational momentum was already "priced in" by investors, leading to limited upward movement.

2. Balanced Analyst Sentiment:

Analyst coverage during this period showed a generally "Moderate Buy" consensus rating for ARX. While several analysts reiterated "Buy" ratings and some increased their price targets in late 2025 and early 2026 (e.g., Citigroup and Citizens JMP upgraded to "Outperform" in December 2025, and Goldman Sachs and Piper Sandler maintained "Buy" ratings in January 2026), Morgan Stanley notably lowered its price target in November 2025. This mix of positive and cautious outlooks contributed to a stable, rather than strongly directional, stock performance.

3. Underlying Operational Strength Offset by Specific Concerns:

Accelerant demonstrated robust operational growth, with third-party gross written premiums (GWP) surging and its Exchange Written Premium growing 17% year-over-year in Q3 2025. The company also expanded its network by adding new third-party insurers, including a Lloyd's facility, and maintained a stable gross loss ratio. However, these positive indicators were counterbalanced by concerns raised by some analysts, such as a decline in the percentage of new third-party premiums and lower-than-expected production guidance for 2026, which likely curbed significant investor enthusiasm.

4. Post-IPO Consolidation:

Following its initial public offering on July 24, 2025, Accelerant's market capitalization saw a substantial decrease from $4.74 billion to $3.03 billion by January 30, 2026. The period under review, beginning after October 31, 2025, appears to represent a phase where the stock had already undergone a significant post-IPO adjustment and was consolidating at a new, lower price level. This stabilization after an earlier, more volatile decline contributed to its relatively consistent trading range. Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -1.7% change in ARX stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -18.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)103120252102026Change
Stock Price ($)11.6211.42-1.7%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)42551220.3%
P/S Multiple4.43.6-18.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1621620.0%
Cumulative Contribution-1.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 2/10/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ARX-1.7% 
Market (SPY)1.5%10.5%
Sector (XLF)2.3%24.6%

Fundamental Drivers

The -58.5% change in ARX stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).
(LTM values as of)73120252102026Change
Stock Price ($)27.5411.42-58.5%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)�5120.0%
Net Income Margin (%)�0.7%0.0%
P/E Multiple�545.80.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1621620.0%
Cumulative Contribution0.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2025 to 2/10/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ARX-58.5% 
Market (SPY)9.8%10.0%
Sector (XLF)2.6%21.9%

Fundamental Drivers

The 8.8% change in ARX stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)13120252102026Change
Stock Price ($)10.5011.428.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)�5120.0%
Net Income Margin (%)�0.7%0.0%
P/E Multiple�545.80.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1621620.0%
Cumulative Contribution0.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2025 to 2/10/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ARX8.8% 
Market (SPY)16.0%10.9%
Sector (XLF)5.1%22.9%

Fundamental Drivers

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Market Drivers

1/31/2023 to 2/10/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ARX8.8% 
Market (SPY)76.6%10.9%
Sector (XLF)53.2%22.9%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
ARX Return0%0%0%0%56%-30%8%
Peers Return27%19%12%34%3%-4%125%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%2%85%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ARX Win Rate0%0%0%0%25%0% 
Peers Win Rate67%57%50%62%53%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%100% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ARX Max Drawdown0%0%0%0%0%-30% 
Peers Max Drawdown-10%-13%-10%-1%-12%-7% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-1% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: RYAN, KNSL, MKL, WRB, ACGL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/10/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

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In The Past

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About Accelerant (ARX)

N/A

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Accelerant (ARX):

  • Stripe for insurance program managers
  • Shopify for insurance program creation
  • AWS for insurance underwriting

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Risk Exchange Platform: A proprietary digital platform connecting specialized underwriting agencies (MGAs) with global risk capital providers to streamline the placement of insurance risks.
  • Underwriting Capacity: Provides licensed insurance and reinsurance capacity to Managing General Agents (MGAs), enabling them to underwrite policies across various specialized lines of business.
  • Underwriting & Claims Infrastructure: Offers MGAs a comprehensive suite of technology and operational support tools for policy administration, data-driven underwriting analysis, and efficient claims management.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Accelerant (ARX) operates primarily in the business-to-business (B2B) sector, serving other companies within the insurance industry.

Major Customers

Accelerant's core business model revolves around partnering with and providing services to a network of Managing General Underwriters (MGUs) and program administrators. These entities are Accelerant's primary customers.

Accelerant offers these partners a comprehensive platform that includes:

  • Underwriting capacity (access to insurance capital)
  • Advanced data, analytics, and technology infrastructure
  • Regulatory, compliance, and claims support

This enables MGUs and program administrators to focus on their specialized underwriting expertise and distribution within niche markets, while Accelerant manages the underlying risk capital and operational complexities.

Due to the nature of its business model, which relies on a broad and diversified network of these partners rather than a few monolithic clients, Accelerant does not publicly disclose the names of specific "major customers" or individual MGUs that constitute a significant portion of its revenue. These partners are typically private companies.

Therefore, while its customers are other companies, specific public customer companies and their symbols are not available or disclosed by Accelerant.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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AI Analysis | Feedback

Jeff Radke, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Jeff Radke has nearly 30 years of experience in the insurance industry, having started his career as an intern at Guy Carpenter. Before co-founding Accelerant in 2018, he drove strategic initiatives at Argo Group for a decade and was previously CEO of the PXRE Group.

Jay Green, Chief Financial Officer

Jay Green serves as Accelerant's Group Chief Financial Officer. He previously worked at Goldman Sachs, where he was a Managing Director and Head of Insurance Structured Finance within the Investment Banking Division, leading the group responsible for alternative capital raising and insurance-linked securitization. Before Goldman Sachs, he held senior roles in the capital markets divisions of Guy Carpenter & Company and Swiss Reinsurance Company.

Christopher Lee-Smith, Co-Founder and Head of Distribution

Christopher Lee-Smith was previously the Global Head of Alternative Distribution for Argo Group, where he led Mergers and Acquisitions, digital distribution channels, and Affinities and Broker Schemes and Facilities. He also served as the Head of Growth Strategies for AON, and before that, he was the COO of Willis and the Head of Change Management for Guy Carpenter.

Frank O'Neill, Co-Founder and Chief Underwriting Officer

Frank O'Neill has a long history of leading reinsurance relationships worldwide. Prior to joining Accelerant, he spent more than two decades at Swiss Re, where he was CEO of the UK and Ireland market as well as for Africa and the Middle East.

Matthew Sternberg, Chief Operating Officer, Risk Exchange

Prior to joining Accelerant, Matthew Sternberg worked at Boston Consulting Group for over a decade, where he was a Managing Director and Partner and co-led the firm's North American insurance practice. Previously, he worked for Goldman Sachs' Investment Banking Division.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to Accelerant (symbol: ARX) primarily revolve around its execution and scaling strategy, intense competition within the insurtech sector, and ongoing financial and valuation concerns.

  1. Execution and Scaling Risks: Accelerant faces significant near-term execution risks related to its operational cash flow challenges and the complex task of scaling its technology-driven risk exchange model while simultaneously reducing net retention. The company's strategy involves a pivot from a capital-intensive underwriter to a capital-light marketplace, and the success of this transition hinges on the effective migration of premiums to third-party Risk Capital Partners without sacrificing fee income. Maintaining high net revenue retention as its member base grows is critical, with any slippage in partner quality or a failure to scale technology ROI potentially derailing its platform strategy.
  2. Competition: The insurtech sector is highly competitive, and Accelerant faces pressure from both scaled incumbent insurers and well-capitalized insurtech companies. This intense competition could lead to compressed fees and challenges in expanding its market presence and sustaining its data moat and network effects.
  3. Financial Stability and Valuation Concerns: Despite reporting strong premium growth, Accelerant has experienced stock volatility and concerns over its high valuation multiples, including a high P/E ratio. The company reported a significant net loss of $1.37 billion in Q3 2025, primarily due to non-cash profits interest distribution expenses related to its recent IPO, which, while economically equity-neutral, highlights the complexity of its financial structure and can impact investor perception. High leverage also contributes to overall financial risk.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The increasing maturation and adoption of **digital marketplaces and API-first platforms** that facilitate direct and highly automated access for specialized underwriting businesses (Managing General Agents or MGAs) to insurance capacity and regulatory infrastructure. These emerging platforms aim to streamline the process of launching and scaling insurance programs by connecting MGAs directly with a broader array of capital providers and offering standardized, technology-driven fronting solutions, potentially bypassing or significantly reducing the need for more integrated, curated program fronting models like Accelerant's.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Accelerant (symbol: ARX) operates a data-driven risk exchange platform that connects specialty insurance underwriters, primarily Managing General Agents (MGAs), with risk capital partners. The company's main services revolve around providing technology, data, and operational support to facilitate the underwriting and management of specialty insurance for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) across various lines, including property, casualty, and other specialty coverages.

The addressable markets for Accelerant's offerings include:

  • Global MGA, MGU, and Cover-Holder Market: This market generated approximately $17.3 billion in revenue, with an annual growth rate of about 19%.
  • U.S. MGA Market: In the U.S. alone, the MGA market surpassed $102 billion in direct premiums in 2024. This market has shown a notable growth rate, exceeding that of the broader property-casualty market.
  • Global Specialty Insurance Technology Sector: This sector is projected to expand significantly, reaching an estimated size of $164 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.7%.
  • Global Insurtech Market: The broader insurtech market, which was valued at $14.6 billion in 2021, is forecast to grow at a 49.4% CAGR to reach $162.12 billion by 2027.

Accelerant's operations are concentrated across the U.S., Europe, Canada, and the UK, focusing on small-to-medium commercial clients.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Accelerant (ARX) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key strategies and operational trends:

  1. Expansion of the Member Base: Accelerant's growth strategy explicitly includes adding more high-quality members to its data-driven risk exchange platform. The company saw an increase in total members to 248 in the second quarter of 2025, up from 186 in the prior year period.

  2. Broadening of Specialty Insurance Product Offerings: A core component of Accelerant's growth algorithm involves expanding its range of specialty products aimed at small and mid-sized businesses. The platform currently operates across 22 countries and offers more than 500 specialty insurance products.

  3. Increased Capital from Risk Partners: Accelerant aims to attract more capital from risk partners. The company's business model relies on connecting underwriters of specialty insurance risk with risk capital providers, making the attraction and expansion of these partnerships a crucial driver for revenue.

  4. Growth in Exchange Written Premium (EWP): Accelerant generates revenue by charging fees on the Exchange Written Premium (EWP) that flows through its platform. The company reported a significant 42% year-over-year growth in Exchange Written Premium, reaching $1.07 billion in Q2 2025, and $3.8 billion over the trailing twelve months. Forecasted EWP for Q3 2025 is projected to be between $1.01 billion and $1.04 billion, indicating continued expansion.

  5. High Net Revenue Retention: Accelerant has demonstrated strong performance in retaining and growing business with its existing members. The net revenue retention rate improved to 151% in Q2 2025 from 135% in the prior year, indicating that current members are increasing their engagement and premium volume on the platform.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Issuance

  • Accelerant Holdings (ARX) completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) on July 24, 2025, offering 34,461,152 Class A common shares at a price of $21.00 per share.
  • The company itself offered 20,276,280 Common Shares, raising approximately $425.8 million.
  • The IPO, including shares sold by existing shareholders and the full exercise of the over-allotment option, generated $832 million and implied a valuation of $6.4 billion at its debut.

Inbound Investments

  • Accelerant has raised a total funding of $150 million over two rounds, with the latest being a private equity round of $150 million on June 22, 2023.
  • Eldridge Industries participated as an investor in Accelerant's latest funding round.
  • Prior to its IPO, Accelerant was backed by investors including billionaire Todd Boehly and Altamont Capital Partners.

Outbound Investments

  • Accelerant has strategically acquired MGAs (Managing General Agents) and currently owns 47 MGAs.
  • The company holds equity ownership interests in 47 of its 232 member MGAs as part of its selective equity participation strategy.
  • In 2023, Accelerant acquired Omega Insurance Holdings in Canada as part of its strategic expansion.

Capital Expenditures

  • Capitalized technology development expenditures amounted to ($17.3) million for the second quarter ended June 30, 2025, and ($14.1) million for the same period in the prior year.

Latest Trefis Analyses

TitleDate
0DASHBOARDS 
1Can Accelerant Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn?10/17/2025
Title
0ARTICLES

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Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ARXRYANKNSLMKLWRBACGLMedian
NameAccelera.Ryan Spe.Kinsale .Markel WR Berkl.Arch Cap. 
Mkt Price11.4244.89398.062,102.8670.0097.8583.92
Mkt Cap2.45.79.226.427.836.117.8
Rev LTM8252,9631,80316,14614,64519,0488,804
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM5865729612,3753,3306,2951,668
FCF 3Y Avg-4768882,5353,2546,0082,535
CFO LTM6256401,0152,5933,3986,3411,804
CFO 3Y Avg-5199132,7703,3306,0572,770

Growth & Margins

ARXRYANKNSLMKLWRBACGLMedian
NameAccelera.Ryan Spe.Kinsale .Markel WR Berkl.Arch Cap. 
Rev Chg LTM61.3%24.3%18.1%-6.6%11.3%17.5%17.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-21.1%32.4%13.2%10.6%28.9%21.1%
Rev Chg Q85.9%24.8%19.0%-2.5%12.0%11.0%15.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM18.7%5.3%4.6%-0.7%2.8%2.7%3.7%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM75.7%21.6%56.3%16.1%23.2%33.3%28.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-21.3%62.3%17.1%25.2%38.6%25.2%
FCF/Rev LTM71.0%19.3%53.3%14.7%22.7%33.0%27.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-19.6%60.8%15.7%24.7%38.2%24.7%

Valuation

ARXRYANKNSLMKLWRBACGLMedian
NameAccelera.Ryan Spe.Kinsale .Markel WR Berkl.Arch Cap. 
Mkt Cap2.45.79.226.427.836.117.8
P/S2.91.95.11.61.91.91.9
P/EBIT-1.910.715.29.010.87.79.9
P/E-1.883.019.412.714.68.813.6
P/CFO3.89.09.110.28.25.78.6
Total Yield-56.6%2.3%5.3%7.9%8.7%16.5%6.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.1%0.2%0.0%1.8%5.2%0.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-7.5%9.7%11.4%14.1%18.5%11.4%
D/E0.10.60.00.20.10.10.1
Net D/E-1.00.6-0.2-0.2-0.9-0.2-0.2

Returns

ARXRYANKNSLMKLWRBACGLMedian
NameAccelera.Ryan Spe.Kinsale .Markel WR Berkl.Arch Cap. 
1M Rtn-27.7%-11.6%0.2%-1.4%2.3%2.8%-0.6%
3M Rtn-8.9%-22.4%1.2%2.0%-6.9%7.9%-2.8%
6M Rtn-60.0%-24.5%-8.9%9.1%1.7%11.5%-3.6%
12M Rtn8.8%-33.4%-17.7%5.6%18.2%7.0%6.3%
3Y Rtn8.8%7.1%37.7%54.8%66.5%60.2%46.3%
1M Excs Rtn-27.4%-11.3%0.5%-1.1%2.6%3.2%-0.3%
3M Excs Rtn-12.8%-25.7%-3.2%0.1%-8.3%6.1%-5.7%
6M Excs Rtn-67.4%-32.6%-17.8%1.5%-7.1%-0.1%-12.5%
12M Excs Rtn-6.4%-49.0%-33.8%-11.4%1.6%-10.5%-11.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-59.1%-60.4%-30.2%-10.4%1.9%0.2%-20.3%

Comparison Analyses

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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil202420232022
Underwriting20112345
Exchange Services12310249
Managing general agent (MGA) Operations1126026
Corporate and Other640
Consolidation and elimination adjustments-99-70-19
Total344219101


Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date1302026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2.3 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 115202621.7%
Average Daily Volume1.3 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.7 days
Basic Shares Quantity206.1 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares1.1%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/28/2025-26.4%-29.8%-49.4%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive000
# Negative111
Median Positive   
Median Negative-26.4%-29.8%-49.4%
Max Positive   
Max Negative-26.4%-29.8%-49.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202511/12/202510-Q
06/30/202508/28/202510-Q
03/31/202507/25/2025424B4
09/30/202311/29/2023DRS/A
12/31/202210/20/2023DRS

Insider Activity

Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Lee-Smith, ChristopherCo-Founder, Head of Distrib.DirectBuy1217202513.4214,700197,240236,894,579Form
2Meriwether, Karen Sue DirectBuy1209202514.675427,951143,057Form
3Gaynor, Samuel DirectBuy1120202513.447,500100,774100,774Form
4Oneill, Francis JamesCo-Founder, Chief U/W OfficerDirectBuy1120202513.3438,000506,81096,495,586Form
5Sternberg, Matthew DavidCOO, Risk ExchangeDirectBuy1119202513.105,70074,6962,070,039Form