Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -90%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -16%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -38%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 37x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 172x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 91%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 86%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.7%
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 24%
  High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 159%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Insurtech Platforms, Show more.
  
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -90%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 91%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 86%
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 24%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Insurtech Platforms, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -16%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -38%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 37x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 172x
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.7%
7 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 159%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ARX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Accelerant experienced a significant stock decline around August 30, 2025, falling nearly 10% within a week due to broader market weaknesses, economic pressures, declining investor confidence, stressed liquidity, and a high leverage ratio.



2. The company reported a substantial Q3 2025 GAAP net loss of -$1.44 billion, primarily driven by a non-cash, equity-neutral $1.38 billion profits interest distribution expense related to IPO accounting. This large reported loss overshadowed positive adjusted earnings and revenue.



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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ARX Return0%0%0%0%0%38%38%
Peers Return5%27%-3%7%19%-11%47%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ARX Win Rate0%0%0%0%0%10% 
Peers Win Rate58%65%38%43%58%42% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ARX Max Drawdown0%0%0%0%0%0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-27%-9%-19%-7%-1%-14% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NP, WTW, MMC, AON, AJG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

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In The Past

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Preserve Wealth

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About Accelerant (ARX)

Better Bets than Accelerant (ARX)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ARX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Accelerant

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ARXNPWTWMMCAONAJGMedian
NameAccelera.Neptune .Willis T.Marsh & .Aon Arthur J. 
Mkt Price14.1523.74316.53183.87344.45245.36214.62
Mkt Cap3.1-31.090.374.362.962.9
Rev LTM634-9,80726,45317,02812,47112,471
Op Inc LTM--2,2686,1464,4542,6263,540
FCF LTM545-1,3814,8253,0401,9721,972
FCF 3Y Avg--1,1764,0572,9561,9382,447
CFO LTM577-1,6035,0873,2842,1202,120
CFO 3Y Avg--1,4124,3983,1992,1032,651

Growth & Margins

ARXNPWTWMMCAONAJGMedian
NameAccelera.Neptune .Willis T.Marsh & .Aon Arthur J. 
Rev Chg LTM---0.0%10.5%14.1%13.8%12.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg--3.5%8.3%11.1%13.3%9.7%
Rev Chg Q101.2%--0.0%11.5%7.4%16.0%11.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM19.3%--0.0%2.5%1.6%3.7%2.5%
Op Mgn LTM--23.1%23.2%26.2%21.1%23.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg--21.0%23.1%27.1%19.7%22.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM--0.6%-0.3%0.5%0.4%0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM91.0%-16.3%19.2%19.3%17.0%19.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg--14.6%18.1%21.5%19.4%18.8%
FCF/Rev LTM86.0%-14.1%18.2%17.9%15.8%17.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg--12.2%16.7%19.9%17.8%17.3%

Valuation

ARXNPWTWMMCAONAJGMedian
NameAccelera.Neptune .Willis T.Marsh & .Aon Arthur J. 
Mkt Cap3.1-31.090.374.362.962.9
P/S3.6-3.53.74.56.63.7
P/EBIT36.9-11.415.318.031.718.0
P/E172.4-16.024.028.350.028.3
P/CFO4.0-21.119.523.438.721.1
Total Yield0.6%-7.0%5.8%4.3%2.4%4.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%-0.8%1.7%0.8%0.4%0.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg--4.1%4.0%4.1%3.2%4.1%
D/E0.1-0.20.20.20.20.2
Net D/E-0.9-0.10.20.1-0.00.1

Returns

ARXNPWTWMMCAONAJGMedian
NameAccelera.Neptune .Willis T.Marsh & .Aon Arthur J. 
1M Rtn24.5%-6.0%0.8%3.8%1.4%1.0%1.2%
3M Rtn-31.0%-25.8%-3.0%-10.0%-7.7%-19.2%-14.6%
6M Rtn34.8%-25.8%2.9%-20.2%-7.2%-26.7%-13.7%
12M Rtn34.8%-25.8%-2.7%-18.8%-9.9%-20.2%-14.4%
3Y Rtn34.8%-25.8%32.9%10.6%15.0%25.0%20.0%
1M Excs Rtn24.5%-6.0%0.8%3.8%1.4%1.0%1.2%
3M Excs Rtn-36.5%-31.2%-9.1%-15.7%-12.9%-23.6%-19.7%
6M Excs Rtn20.0%-40.5%-11.8%-34.9%-21.9%-41.5%-28.4%
12M Excs Rtn21.2%-39.4%-14.1%-33.5%-24.9%-34.3%-29.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-38.0%-98.6%-35.4%-58.6%-57.2%-44.4%-50.8%

Financials

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,689,571
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202554.0%
Average Daily Volume1,570,266
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.71
Basic Shares Quantity219,986,563
Short % of Basic Shares1.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025828202510-Q 6/30/2025
123120247252025424B4 12/31/2024
930202311292023DRS/A 9/30/2023
1231202210202023DRS 12/31/2022