Global Payments (GPN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $79.57 | Market Cap: $19.1 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Global Payments (GPN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $79.57Market Cap: $19.1 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Digital Payments, and AI for Fraud Detection. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Digital Payments, and AI for Fraud Detection. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
GPN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Global Payments (GPN) experienced a stock movement of approximately -9.7% during the period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, influenced by several key factors:
1. Mixed Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results: While Global Payments reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.26 for the third quarter of 2025, which surpassed analysts' consensus estimates of $3.23, the company's adjusted net revenue of $2.43 billion slightly missed analyst expectations of $2.44 billion. This revenue shortfall, despite the EPS beat, likely contributed to investor concern regarding top-line growth.
2. Analyst Downgrade: On October 22, 2025, KeyCorp downgraded Global Payments' stock from an "overweight" rating to a "sector weight" rating. A downgrade from a prominent research firm can negatively impact investor sentiment and lead to selling pressure on the stock.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GPN Return | 19% | -37% | -26% | 29% | -11% | -29% | -55% |
| Peers Return | 30% | 2% | -20% | 17% | 43% | -13% | 57% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GPN Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 50% | 58% | 50% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 52% | 42% | 65% | 67% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GPN Max Drawdown | -36% | -45% | -31% | -3% | -27% | -40% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -36% | -14% | -31% | -10% | -4% | -30% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FISV, SYF, MA, V, PYPL. See GPN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GPN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -57.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 135.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -44.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 280 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -25.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 65 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -44.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 80.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 220 days | 1480 days |
Compare to FISV, SYF, MA, V, PYPL
In The Past
Global Payments's stock fell -57.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/29/2021. A -57.5% loss requires a 135.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to GPN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| 10312025 | GPN | Global Payments | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.2% | 1.2% | -8.1% |
| 02282022 | GPN | Global Payments | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.1% | -15.2% | -29.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| 10312025 | GPN | Global Payments | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.2% | 1.2% | -8.1% |
| 02282022 | GPN | Global Payments | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.1% | -15.2% | -29.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Global Payments
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | - |
| Mkt Cap | - |
| Rev LTM | - |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | - |
| FCF 3Y Avg | - |
| CFO LTM | - |
| CFO 3Y Avg | - |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | - |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | - |
| Rev Chg Q | - |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | - |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | - |
| FCF/Rev LTM | - |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | - |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | - |
| P/S | - |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | - |
| P/CFO | - |
| Total Yield | - |
| Dividend Yield | - |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | - |
| D/E | - |
| Net D/E | - |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | - |
| 3M Rtn | - |
| 6M Rtn | - |
| 12M Rtn | - |
| 3Y Rtn | - |
| 1M Excs Rtn | - |
| 3M Excs Rtn | - |
| 6M Excs Rtn | - |
| 12M Excs Rtn | - |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | - |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merchant Solutions | 7,152 | 6,205 | 5,666 | 4,688 | 4,099 |
| Issuer Solutions | 2,399 | 2,246 | 2,166 | 1,981 | 605 |
| Consumer Solutions | 183 | 620 | 784 | 830 | 227 |
| Intersegment eliminations | -79 | -96 | -91 | -76 | -19 |
| Total | 9,654 | 8,976 | 8,524 | 7,424 | 4,912 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merchant Solutions | 2,345 | 2,040 | 1,726 | 1,163 | 1,149 |
| Issuer Solutions | 410 | 356 | 333 | 278 | 82 |
| Impairment of goodwill | 0 | -833 | |||
| Consumer Solutions | -4 | 54 | 136 | 139 | 19 |
| Net gain (loss) on business dispositions | -137 | -199 | |||
| Corporate | -898 | -778 | -836 | -685 | -459 |
| Total | 1,716 | 640 | 1,359 | 894 | 791 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2142025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2142024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2172023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10312022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8012022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5022022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2182022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Watson Patricia A | 11102025 | Buy | 75.06 | 1,331 | 99,905 | 198,984 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |