JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
Market Price (11/5/2026): $351.93 | Market Cap: $934.6 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Financials | Industry: Diversified Banks
JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
Market Price (11/5/2026): $351.93Market Cap: $934.6 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Diversified Banks
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.6% Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -35% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 84 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 15% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, Crypto & Blockchain, Digital & Alternative Assets, AI in Financial Services, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.1%, Dist 3Y High is -3.1% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -42%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -42% Key risksJPM key risks include [1] substantial legal and reputational exposure from intensified government scrutiny over historical client activities, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.6% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -35% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 84 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% |
| Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 15% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, Crypto & Blockchain, Digital & Alternative Assets, AI in Financial Services, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.1%, Dist 3Y High is -3.1% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -42%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -42% |
| Key risksJPM key risks include [1] substantial legal and reputational exposure from intensified government scrutiny over historical client activities, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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JPMorgan Chase (JPM) stock has remained largely at the same level since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. JPMorgan Chase missed analyst expectations for its fiscal Q3 2026 earnings. The company reported GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $5.57, which was $0.19 below the consensus estimate of $5.94 per share. Additionally, managed revenue of $50.9 billion, while an 8% increase year-over-year, fell short of the $51.23 billion consensus estimate by $1.04 billion.
2. Anticipated weakening in broader credit conditions and persistent inflationary pressures negatively impacted the banking sector outlook. The American Bankers Association's (ABA) Credit Conditions Index for fiscal Q3 2026 registered 44.7, marking the seventh consecutive quarter below 50, which signals an expected deterioration in credit conditions over the subsequent six months. This outlook, combined with Federal Reserve concerns about sticky inflation and higher interest rates, created a challenging macroeconomic environment for banks.
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JPMorgan Chase (JPM) stock has remained largely at the same level since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. JPMorgan Chase missed analyst expectations for its fiscal Q3 2026 earnings. The company reported GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $5.57, which was $0.19 below the consensus estimate of $5.94 per share. Additionally, managed revenue of $50.9 billion, while an 8% increase year-over-year, fell short of the $51.23 billion consensus estimate by $1.04 billion.
2. Anticipated weakening in broader credit conditions and persistent inflationary pressures negatively impacted the banking sector outlook. The American Bankers Association's (ABA) Credit Conditions Index for fiscal Q3 2026 registered 44.7, marking the seventh consecutive quarter below 50, which signals an expected deterioration in credit conditions over the subsequent six months. This outlook, combined with Federal Reserve concerns about sticky inflation and higher interest rates, created a challenging macroeconomic environment for banks.
3. Substantial insider selling activity raised investor concerns. Over the trailing 6 months leading up to October 24, 2026, JPMorgan Chase insiders executed net sales totaling $15.5 million. This significant divestment by company insiders can be perceived as a negative signal regarding future stock performance.
4. Company-wide job reductions indicated a more cautious management outlook. JPMorgan Chase initiated a series of layoffs, with 91 employees in Jersey City affected from October 30, 2026, through January 24, 2027. This action contributed to a total of 632 job cuts in New Jersey alone during 2026 across six filings, suggesting proactive cost management or a more conservative stance on growth prospects.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 0.6% change in JPM stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 6.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 350.04 | 352.11 | 0.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 186,941 | 198,653 | 6.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 31.5% | 33.2% | 5.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.1 | 14.3 | -11.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,716 | 2,679 | 1.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.6% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| JPM | 0.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.6% | 37.3% |
| Sector (XLF) | 4.0% | 81.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 13.5% change in JPM stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 8.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 310.28 | 352.11 | 13.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 182,435 | 198,653 | 8.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 31.3% | 33.2% | 6.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.9 | 14.3 | -3.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,735 | 2,679 | 2.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 13.5% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| JPM | 13.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.0% | 29.5% |
| Sector (XLF) | 14.0% | 77.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 15.4% change in JPM stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 13.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 305.24 | 352.11 | 15.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 175,656 | 198,653 | 13.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 32.2% | 33.2% | 3.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.1 | 14.3 | -5.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,789 | 2,679 | 4.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 15.4% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| JPM | 15.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.4% | 44.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | 14.4% | 79.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 169.8% change in JPM stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 78.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 130.49 | 352.11 | 169.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 143,230 | 198,653 | 38.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 33.4% | 33.2% | -0.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 8.0 | 14.3 | 78.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,944 | 2,679 | 9.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 169.8% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| JPM | 169.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 89.7% | 57.2% |
| Sector (XLF) | 91.0% | 82.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| JPM Return | 28% | -13% | 31% | 44% | 37% | 11% | 222% |
| Peers Return | 38% | -15% | 15% | 37% | 45% | 8% | 188% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| JPM Win Rate | 67% | 33% | 58% | 67% | 75% | 55% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 45% | 53% | 60% | 70% | 51% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 36% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| JPM Max Drawdown | -11% | -38% | -13% | -10% | -24% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -15% | -34% | -26% | -14% | -25% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: BAC, MS, RY, WFC, C. See JPM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/4/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | JPM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -24.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 80 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -12.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.7% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -12.4% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.1% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 81 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -35.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 279 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -42.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 290 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -19.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.0% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 105 days |
In The Past
JPMorgan Chase's stock fell -24.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 32.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | JPM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -24.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 80 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -35.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 279 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -42.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 290 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 176 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -32.1% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.3% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 162 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -62.9% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 169.4% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 157 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
JPMorgan Chase's stock fell -24.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 32.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is a prominent global financial services company that provides an extensive range of banking, investment, and wealth management solutions to a diverse clientele across the world. The company operates through four primary segments: Consumer & Community Banking, Corporate & Investment Bank, Commercial Banking, and Asset & Wealth Management, each catering to specific market needs.
For individual consumers and small businesses, JPMorgan Chase offers essential services such as deposit accounts, various lending products including mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards, alongside investment and payment solutions. Its Corporate & Investment Bank segment focuses on large corporations and institutional clients, delivering sophisticated investment banking advisory, capital raising services through equity and debt markets, payment processing, risk management solutions, and comprehensive securities services like custody and fund administration.
The Commercial Banking segment provides tailored financial solutions, including lending, payments, and asset management, to midsized to large companies, local governments, and nonprofit organizations, as well as specialized commercial real estate banking services. Furthermore, through Asset & Wealth Management, JPM offers multi-asset investment management strategies to institutional clients and high-net-worth retail investors, encompassing retirement products, brokerage, and trust services. The company also maintains a robust network of digital and traditional banking services to support its clients.
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Here are a few brief analogies for JPMorgan Chase:
The **Amazon of financial services**
A **financial Walmart**
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- Retail Banking Services: Offers deposit, lending (mortgages, auto, credit card), and payment solutions for individual consumers and small businesses.
- Commercial Banking Services: Provides financial solutions, including lending, payments, investment banking, and asset management, to midsized companies, local governments, and nonprofit clients.
- Investment Banking & Advisory: Delivers corporate strategy and structure advisory, capital-raising services via equity and debt markets, and loan origination and syndication.
- Markets Services: Engages in trading cash and derivative instruments, offers risk management solutions, and provides prime brokerage services for institutional clients.
- Asset Management: Manages multi-asset investment solutions, including equities, fixed income, and alternatives, for institutional clients and retail investors.
- Wealth Management: Furnishes comprehensive financial planning, brokerage, trusts, loans, and investment management products for high-net-worth individuals.
- Treasury & Payment Services: Manages payments, cash flow, and cross-border financing for corporate and institutional clients.
- Securities Services: Provides custody, fund accounting and administration, and securities lending products for asset managers, insurance companies, and investment funds.
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The following are major suppliers for JPMorgan Chase (JPM):
- Visa Inc. (V)
- Mastercard Incorporated (MA)
- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
- Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
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Jamie Dimon, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Jamie Dimon has served as CEO of JPMorgan Chase since 2005 and Chairman since 2006. Prior to JPMorgan Chase, he began his professional career at American Express and was a key member of the team that launched Commercial Credit Company. He served as Chief Financial Officer and then President of Commercial Credit, which made numerous acquisitions and divestitures, including acquiring Primerica Corporation and The Travelers Corporation. Dimon served as President and Chief Operating Officer of Travelers from 1990 through 1998, concurrently serving as Chief Operating Officer of its Smith Barney Inc. subsidiary. He became Chief Executive Officer of Smith Barney in 1996 and then co-Chairman and co-Chief Executive Officer of the combined brokerage after the 1997 merger of Smith Barney and Salomon Brothers. In 1998, Dimon was named President of Citigroup Inc. In 2000, he was named Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Bank One, which he led until its merger with JPMorgan Chase in 2004.
Jeremy Barnum, Chief Financial Officer
Jeremy Barnum is the Chief Financial Officer for JPMorgan Chase & Co., appointed in May 2021. He is responsible for global financial operations, budgeting, forecasting, and investor relations. Since joining JPMorgan Chase in 1994, Barnum has held numerous leadership roles, including Head of Global Research for the Corporate & Investment Bank (CIB) and Chief Financial Officer of the CIB from 2013 to 2021. He briefly left JPMorgan in 2004 and worked for BlueMountain Capital as head of its London office before returning to JPMorgan in 2007.
Mary Callahan Erdoes, CEO, Asset & Wealth Management
Mary Callahan Erdoes is the Chief Executive Officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s Asset Management business, overseeing a global leader in investment management and private banking. She joined J.P. Morgan in 1996 from Meredith, Martin & Kaye, a fixed income specialty advisory firm.
Jennifer Piepszak, Chief Operating Officer
Jennifer Piepszak serves as the Chief Operating Officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co. She has been with JPMorgan Chase for 28 years and previously served as the firm's Chief Financial Officer from May 2019. Prior to her CFO role, Piepszak spent seven years in Consumer & Community Banking (CCB), holding positions such as CEO of Card Services, CEO of Business Banking, and CFO for Mortgage Banking.
Troy Rohrbaugh, Co-CEO, Commercial & Investment Bank
Troy Rohrbaugh serves as Co-CEO of JPMorgan Chase's Commercial & Investment Bank (CIB), with a focus on markets and securities services. He has held various senior roles within the firm's markets business.
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The primary risks to JPMorgan Chase's business include broad economic and market downturns, stringent regulatory and legal oversight, and pervasive cybersecurity threats.
- Economic and Market Risks: JPMorgan Chase is significantly exposed to adverse economic conditions and market volatility. This includes potential negative impacts from factors such as increased inflation, higher interest rates, and overall economic downturns, which can lead to increased delinquencies and credit losses across its diverse lending portfolios, including consumer and commercial loans. Fluctuations in interest rates, credit spreads, and general market volatility can also materially affect the firm's investment and market-making positions, potentially reducing earnings and asset management fees.
- Regulatory and Legal Risks: Operating as a globally systemically important financial institution (G-SIFI), JPMorgan Chase faces extensive and evolving regulatory scrutiny across multiple jurisdictions. Changes in laws, rules, and regulations can significantly impact its operations, increase compliance costs, and constrain strategic initiatives. The firm is also subject to ongoing regulatory investigations and potential legal proceedings that could result in substantial penalties, operational restrictions, and reputational damage.
- Cybersecurity Threats and Operational/Technology Risks: JPMorgan Chase faces persistent and evolving cybersecurity threats, including data breaches and system failures. These incidents can disrupt operations, compromise sensitive customer data (as seen in past breaches affecting millions of records), damage the firm's reputation, and lead to significant financial losses. The increasing reliance on complex technology, including Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) architecture and third-party vendors, introduces additional operational vulnerabilities and potential systemic risks that could lead to widespread service disruptions.
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- Fintech and Neobanks: Digital-first financial technology companies and challenger banks are increasingly offering agile, user-friendly, and often lower-cost alternatives to traditional banking services across deposits, payments, lending, and investment products. These firms threaten JPMorgan Chase's market share, particularly in its Consumer & Community Banking and Commercial Banking segments, by attracting customers with superior digital experiences and specialized offerings.
- Big Tech in Financial Services: Companies such as Apple, Google, and Amazon are leveraging their immense user bases, technological platforms, and data capabilities to increasingly offer financial products and services directly to consumers (e.g., payments, credit cards, lending to small businesses). While often partnering with banks for regulatory compliance, Big Tech's growing involvement threatens JPMorgan Chase's direct customer relationships and its role as the primary interface for financial interactions, especially within its Consumer & Community Banking segment.
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JPMorgan Chase & Co. operates across diverse financial services, addressing substantial markets globally and within the U.S. for its main products and services. The estimated addressable market sizes for these offerings in 2024 are as follows:
Consumer & Community Banking (CCB)
- Retail Banking: The global retail banking market was estimated at USD 2,039.25 billion in 2024, with projections to reach USD 3,373.43 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 5.8% from 2025 to 2033. In the U.S., the retail banking market generated an estimated revenue of USD 454.3 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 678.3 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 4.6% from 2025 to 2033. Another estimate places the U.S. retail banking market size at USD 870 billion in 2025, projected to grow to USD 1,112.2 billion by 2031 with a CAGR of 4.17% from 2026 to 2031. North America held a significant share of 38.02% of the global retail banking market, which was valued at USD 4.26 trillion in 2025.
- Credit Card Services: The global credit cards market was valued at USD 1,282.49 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 1,771.55 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 4.8% during the forecast period. Another report indicates the global credit card market size was USD 559.18 billion in 2023, with an expectation to reach USD 1,146.62 billion by 2033, at a CAGR of 7.45%. The global credit card payments market size was estimated at USD 622.76 billion in 2024 and is predicted to surpass USD 1,433.49 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 8.69% from 2025 to 2034. North America is anticipated to maintain the largest share of the global credit card market.
- Mortgage Origination and Servicing (Residential Mortgages): Total U.S. mortgage originations across all loan purposes amounted to $1.82 trillion in 2024. The U.S. home mortgage market size was valued at approximately USD 180.91 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 501.67 billion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 12.00% between 2024 and 2032.
Corporate & Investment Bank (CIB)
- Investment Banking: The global investment banking market size was valued at USD 111.0 billion in 2024 and is poised to grow to USD 221.89 billion by 2033, at a CAGR of 8.0% during the forecast period (2026-2033). Another source reported the global investment banking market was valued at USD 184.91 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 334.27 billion by 2030, rising at a CAGR of 10.43%. For the U.S., the investment banking market was estimated at USD 45.0 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 112.0 billion by 2035, exhibiting a CAGR of 8.6% from 2025 to 2035. North America is a dominant player in the global investment banking market, holding over 34% share in 2023.
- Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) Advisory: Global M&A deal value rose by 10% to USD 3.2 trillion in fiscal year 2024, with the U.S. accounting for 45% of the total deal volume.
- Debt Capital Markets (DCM): Global debt capital market activity reached USD 10.7 trillion in fiscal year 2024, marking a 20% increase year-over-year.
- Equity Capital Markets (ECM): Global equity capital market activity rose to USD 638 billion in fiscal year 2024, a 19% increase year-over-year, with the U.S. contributing 38% of total issuances.
Commercial Banking (CB)
- Commercial Banking Services: The global commercial banking market size was valued at USD 3.78 trillion in 2024 and is poised to grow to USD 12.67 trillion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 14.4% during the forecast period (2026-2033). Another estimate places the global commercial banking market size at $3.9 trillion in 2024.
- Commercial Real Estate Banking Services: Total commercial real estate (CRE) mortgage borrowing and lending in the U.S. is estimated to have totaled USD 498 billion in 2024, a 16% increase from 2023. The total level of commercial mortgage debt in the U.S. has risen to $4.70 trillion as of Q1 2024.
Asset & Wealth Management (AWM)
- Asset Management: The global asset management industry's assets under management (AuM) grew to a record-breaking $128 trillion in 2024, a 12% increase from the previous year. North American managers reached $88.2 trillion in AUM at the end of 2024, representing 63% of all assets managed by the 500 largest firms globally. In terms of revenue, the global asset management market size was valued at USD 469 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 29.9% between 2025 and 2034.
- Wealth Management: The total financial wealth of all U.S. households exceeded $90 trillion by year-end 2024. Advice revenues in the U.S. wealth management industry grew to an estimated $260 billion in 2024. North America leads the wealth management platform market with a valuation of USD 7.5 billion in 2024.
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JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives across its diversified financial services segments:
- Expansion of Consumer & Community Banking (CCB): JPMorgan Chase plans to expand its physical branch network, opening over 160 new branches in 2026 and renovating hundreds more as part of a multiyear strategy. This expansion is designed to capture greater market share in retail deposits, with an aim to reach a 15% national retail deposit share, up from 11.3% as of the end of 2024. The company also anticipates continued robust growth in new credit card accounts, targeting approximately 10 million new accounts per year, and higher revolving balances in its Card Services and Auto segments.
- Growth in Corporate & Investment Bank (CIB) Activities: The firm intends to increase its investment banking revenue by strategically focusing on key client segments, including private-equity clients, Silicon Valley startups, and midsize companies. Investment banking fees have already shown strong year-on-year growth, driven by an increase in underwriting and advisory activities. JPMorgan Chase has been actively hiring investment bankers since 2022 to support this growth.
- Asset & Wealth Management (AWM) Expansion: Revenue growth in this segment is anticipated from strong net client inflows, which have been positive across all channels, regions, and asset classes. The company has seen significant increases in assets under management and client assets, with a long-term target of $10 trillion in client assets. JPMorgan Chase is also making substantial investments in innovation within this segment, particularly in fast-growing areas such as active Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).
- Sustained Net Interest Income (NII) powered by a supportive macro environment: JPMorgan Chase forecasts continued growth in its net interest income. For 2026, the company expects Net Interest Income excluding Markets to be approximately $95 billion, and total Net Interest Income to be around $103 billion. This outlook is supported by a resilient consumer base and a generally favorable macroeconomic environment.
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Share Repurchases
- JPMorgan Chase authorized a new common share repurchase program of $50 billion, effective July 1, 2025.
- Annual share repurchases amounted to $31.591 billion in 2025 and $18.83 billion in 2024.
- A $30 billion share repurchase program was authorized, effective July 1, 2024.
Share Issuance
- The total number of outstanding shares generally declined, from 2.97 billion in 2021 to 2.782 billion in 2025, primarily due to share repurchases.
Outbound Investments
- In May 2023, JPMorgan Chase acquired the substantial majority of assets and assumed deposits of First Republic Bank, an acquisition expected to generate over $500 million of incremental net income per year.
- The company made a total of 21 acquisitions, with peak activity including 5 acquisitions in 2021 and 3 in 2022, encompassing areas like fintech, wealth management, and strategic solutions.
- The Strategic Financing Solutions unit of JPMorgan Chase has deployed over $10 billion across 100 direct-lending transactions since 2021 and the firm announced plans in October 2025 to invest up to $10 billion directly into selected U.S. companies over the next decade, focusing on critical industries.
Capital Expenditures
- Technology spending, a significant portion of capital expenditures, was approximately $18 billion in 2025 and is projected to increase to roughly $19.8 billion in 2026.
- The technology budget for 2024 was $17 billion.
- These expenditures are primarily focused on technology and AI, including investments in cloud infrastructure, cybersecurity, data systems, and the development of new products, features, and customer platforms.
Peer Outperformance in Diversified Banks
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reinsurance | 6 | 35.5% | 75.2% | 130.3% | SPNT 170% · RNR 149% · RGA 146% |
| Investment Banking & Brokerage | 13 | 1.8% | 95.7% | 99.6% | IBKR 329% · SNEX 173% · GS 157% |
| Diversified Banks ← | 12 | 34.2% | 147.9% | 96.6% | CM 152% · JPM 137% · RY 136% |
| Multi-Sector Holdings | 4 | 10.9% | 62.5% | 86.0% | BRK-B 101% · VOYA 71% · JEF 44% |
| Life & Health Insurance | 20 | 12.7% | 56.2% | 79.1% | JXN 536% · UNM 233% · MFC 202% |
| Property & Casualty Insurance | 42 | 23.5% | 76.1% | 70.7% | TRV 188% · PGR 177% · ACGL 176% |
| Multi-line Insurance | 9 | 9.6% | 68.6% | 58.3% | GNW 115% · AIZ 104% · L 100% |
| Regional Banks | 264 | 34.6% | 91.5% | 51.6% | CBC 273% · FCNCA 183% · NIC 143% |
| Financial Exchanges & Data | 15 | 20.6% | 40.7% | 36.8% | CBOE 178% · VIRT 125% · CME 72% |
| Insurance Brokers | 15 | 5.9% | 14.3% | 32.4% | LIFE 337% · ARX 89% · AJG 89% |
| Asset Management & Custody Banks | 85 | -4.4% | 22.2% | 12.7% | VCTR 270% · WT 220% · AAMI 208% |
| Consumer Finance | 30 | 8.6% | 85.4% | 9.8% | ENVA 391% · FCFS 139% · AXP 105% |
| Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance | 14 | -47.8% | 26.0% | 4.2% | FNMA 349% · FMCC 316% · ACT 157% |
| Diversified Financial Services | 4 | 2.0% | 22.6% | 3.3% | FRHC 166% · EQH 80% |
| Specialized Finance | 3 | 16.0% | 34.5% | -18.0% | HASI -18% · CACC -28% |
| Transaction & Payment Processing Services | 17 | 21.7% | 25.4% | -23.2% | V 117% · MA 107% · CPAY 73% |
| Mortgage REITs | 35 | -17.6% | -5.3% | -32.0% | RITM 38% · DX 20% · AGNC 12% |
| Diversified Capital Markets | 20 | -39.8% | 6.3% | -65.5% | LPLA 87% · TW 39% · RIOT -53% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 159.50 |
| Mkt Cap | 296.5 |
| Rev LTM | 89,212 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 5,162 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -3,855 |
| CFO LTM | 6,660 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -2,226 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | - |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | - |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 6.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -5.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -8.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 296.5 |
| P/S | 3.6 |
| P/Op Inc | - |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 12.3 |
| P/CFO | -3.8 |
| Total Yield | 10.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -1.5% |
| D/E | 1.2 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 5.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 18.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 167.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 3.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 8.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 100.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial & Investment Bank | 78,454 | 70,114 | 64,353 | 59,635 | 51,943 |
| Consumer & Community Banking | 76,029 | 71,507 | 70,148 | 54,814 | 49,879 |
| Asset & Wealth Management | 24,073 | 21,578 | 19,827 | 17,748 | 16,957 |
| Corporate | 7,025 | 17,394 | 8,038 | 80 | -3,483 |
| Reconciling Items | -3,134 | -3,037 | -4,262 | -3,582 | -3,655 |
| Commercial Banking | 10,008 | ||||
| Total | 182,447 | 177,556 | 158,104 | 128,695 | 121,649 |
| $ Mil | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer & Community Banking | 15,852 | 15,239 | 17,849 | 17,381 | |
| Commercial & Investment Bank | 11,849 | 11,521 | 12,713 | 12,955 | |
| Commercial Banking | 3,562 | 4,376 | 4,278 | 4,395 | 3,932 |
| Asset Management | 3,229 | 3,486 | 3,239 | 2,756 | 2,474 |
| Corporate | -700 | ||||
| Reconciling Items | -3,090 | -3,718 | -3,192 | -2,859 | -2,533 |
| Corporate/Private Equity | -1,112 | -8,973 | -5,711 | 30 | |
| Card Services | 7,475 | ||||
| Investment Bank | 10,444 | ||||
| Retail Financial Services | 3,081 | ||||
| Treasury & Securities Services | 1,846 | ||||
| Total | 30,702 | 29,792 | 25,914 | 28,917 | 26,749 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial & Investment Bank | 27,761 | 24,846 | 20,272 | 19,138 | 21,107 |
| Consumer & Community Banking | 18,245 | 17,603 | 21,232 | 14,916 | 20,957 |
| Asset & Wealth Management | 6,522 | 5,421 | 5,227 | 4,365 | 4,737 |
| Corporate | 4,520 | 10,601 | 2,821 | -743 | -3,713 |
| Reconciling Items | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Commercial Banking | 5,246 | ||||
| Total | 57,048 | 58,471 | 49,552 | 37,676 | 48,334 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial & Investment Bank | 2,142,534 | 1,773,194 | 1,638,493 | 1,591,402 | 1,259,896 |
| Corporate | 1,329,632 | 1,323,967 | 1,348,437 | 1,328,219 | 1,518,100 |
| Consumer & Community Banking | 664,669 | 650,268 | 642,951 | 514,085 | 500,370 |
| Asset & Wealth Management | 288,065 | 255,385 | 245,512 | 232,037 | 234,425 |
| Commercial Banking | 230,776 | ||||
| Total | 4,424,900 | 4,002,814 | 3,875,393 | 3,665,743 | 3,743,567 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $352.11 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 943.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/30/1983 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -3.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $341.64 | $320.90 |
| DMA Trend | down | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | 3.1% | 9.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 18.0% | 22.5% |
| Downside Capture | 56.12 | 79.76 |
| Upside Capture | 31.27 | 83.07 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 21.7% | 41.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.13 | 0.51 | 0.45 | 0.44 | 0.75 | 0.86 |
| Up Beta | -0.43 | 0.43 | 0.62 | 0.26 | 0.67 | 0.84 |
| Down Beta | 0.20 | -0.25 | 0.13 | 0.18 | 0.53 | 0.91 |
| Up Capture | 36% | 60% | 37% | 60% | 80% | 84% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 24 | 36 | 73 | 137 | 433 |
| Down Capture | -3% | 93% | 66% | 54% | 89% | 91% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 18 | 27 | 52 | 113 | 317 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with JPM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM | 16.1% | 22.5% | 0.58 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 15.0% | 15.0% | 0.71 | 79.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.2% | 12.9% | 0.68 | 44.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 1.0% | 28.8% | 0.03 | 21.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 35.9% | 21.2% | 1.34 | -19.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.3% | 14.1% | 0.70 | 36.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -28.2% | 43.4% | -0.65 | 20.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with JPM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM | 18.9% | 24.3% | 0.67 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 10.0% | 18.3% | 0.40 | 84.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.5% | 17.2% | 0.55 | 61.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.3% | 19.1% | 0.73 | 6.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 19.6% | 0.29 | 8.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.8% | 18.9% | -0.01 | 43.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.5% | 51.5% | 0.29 | 25.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with JPM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM | 20.9% | 27.4% | 0.72 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 13.7% | 22.1% | 0.56 | 90.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 69.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.9% | 16.5% | 0.59 | -2.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 22.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 53.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.0% | 66.2% | 1.01 | 17.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 10/22/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/13/2026 | -0.9% | -0.2% | |
| 7/14/2026 | 2.5% | 1.3% | 8.2% |
| 4/14/2026 | -0.8% | 1.1% | -2.8% |
| 1/13/2026 | -1.0% | -2.8% | -2.7% |
| 10/14/2025 | -1.9% | -1.8% | 2.5% |
| 7/15/2025 | -0.7% | 0.8% | 1.4% |
| 4/11/2025 | 4.0% | 2.1% | 14.5% |
| 1/15/2025 | 0.8% | 5.4% | 9.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 14 | 19 |
| # Negative | 17 | 11 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.7% |
| Median Negative | -1.5% | -3.1% | -2.7% |
| Max Positive | 7.6% | 9.2% | 23.7% |
| Max Negative | -6.5% | -8.2% | -10.3% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/13/2026 | -0.9% | -0.2% | |
| 7/14/2026 | 2.5% | 1.3% | 8.2% |
| 4/14/2026 | -0.8% | 1.1% | -2.8% |
| 1/13/2026 | -1.0% | -2.8% | -2.7% |
| 10/14/2025 | -1.9% | -1.8% | 2.5% |
| 7/15/2025 | -0.7% | 0.8% | 1.4% |
| 4/11/2025 | 4.0% | 2.1% | 14.5% |
| 1/15/2025 | 0.8% | 5.4% | 9.6% |
| 10/11/2024 | 4.4% | 5.4% | 11.3% |
| 7/12/2024 | -1.2% | 1.2% | -0.8% |
| 4/12/2024 | -6.5% | -7.3% | 1.7% |
| 1/12/2024 | -0.6% | 0.6% | 3.1% |
| 10/13/2023 | 1.5% | -0.4% | 0.4% |
| 7/14/2023 | 0.6% | 4.9% | 3.7% |
| 4/14/2023 | 7.6% | 9.2% | 4.0% |
| 1/13/2023 | -1.5% | -4.0% | 0.1% |
| 10/14/2022 | 1.7% | 6.2% | 23.7% |
| 7/14/2022 | -3.5% | 2.4% | 7.4% |
| 4/13/2022 | -3.2% | 0.0% | -10.3% |
| 1/14/2022 | -4.2% | -8.2% | -2.0% |
| 10/13/2021 | -2.6% | 1.9% | 1.4% |
| 7/13/2021 | -1.5% | -7.0% | 0.8% |
| 4/14/2021 | -1.9% | -3.1% | 2.2% |
| 1/15/2021 | -0.4% | -4.7% | 4.7% |
| 10/13/2020 | -1.6% | -2.6% | 13.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 14 | 19 |
| # Negative | 17 | 11 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.7% |
| Median Negative | -1.5% | -3.1% | -2.7% |
| Max Positive | 7.6% | 9.2% | 23.7% |
| Max Negative | -6.5% | -8.2% | -10.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/16/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/21/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/16/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/21/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/22/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/02/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/02/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/23/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/02/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/03/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/25/2020 | 10-K |
Insider Activity
Updated 10/1/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leopold, Robin | Head of Human Resources | Direct | Sell | 9102026 | 352.81 | 2,500 | 882,026 | 25,066,135 | Form |
| 2 | Leopold, Robin | Head of Human Resources | Direct | Sell | 8112026 | 361.41 | 2,500 | 903,518 | 26,580,415 | Form |
| 3 | Friedman, Stacey | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 6222026 | 330.73 | 5,467 | 1,808,121 | 13,547,183 | Form |
| 4 | Friedman, Stacey | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 5202026 | 300.27 | 5,468 | 1,641,856 | 13,940,759 | Form |
| 5 | Erdoes, Mary E | CEO Asset & Wealth Management | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 298.36 | 6,648 | 1,983,527 | 188,685,348 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leopold, Robin | Head of Human Resources | Direct | Sell | 9102026 | 352.81 | 2,500 | 882,026 | 25,066,135 | Form |
| 2 | Leopold, Robin | Head of Human Resources | Direct | Sell | 8112026 | 361.41 | 2,500 | 903,518 | 26,580,415 | Form |
| 3 | Friedman, Stacey | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 6222026 | 330.73 | 5,467 | 1,808,121 | 13,547,183 | Form |
| 4 | Friedman, Stacey | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 5202026 | 300.27 | 5,468 | 1,641,856 | 13,940,759 | Form |
| 5 | Erdoes, Mary E | CEO Asset & Wealth Management | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 298.36 | 6,648 | 1,983,527 | 188,685,348 | Form |
| 6 | Lake, Marianne | CEO CCB | GRATs | Sell | 5152026 | 298.36 | 6,427 | 1,917,531 | 22,794,957 | Form |
| 7 | Petno, Douglas B | Co-CEO CIB | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 300.05 | 5,659 | 1,697,983 | 67,396,931 | Form |
| 8 | Beer, Lori A | Chief Information Officer | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 300.05 | 3,165 | 949,658 | 20,038,239 | Form |
| 9 | Barnum, Jeremy | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5052026 | 309.41 | 3,022 | 935,032 | 10,036,583 | Form |
| 10 | Bacon, Ashley | Chief Risk Officer | Direct | Sell | 5052026 | 309.42 | 4,070 | 1,259,356 | 76,980,100 | Form |
| 11 | Piepszak, Jennifer | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 5052026 | 309.42 | 4,919 | 1,522,037 | 26,326,081 | Form |
| 12 | Piepszak, Jennifer | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 4152026 | 306.56 | 9,136 | 2,800,713 | 27,590,518 | Form |
| 13 | Petno, Douglas B | Co-CEO CIB | Direct | Sell | 4152026 | 306.58 | 5,660 | 1,735,219 | 117,052,786 | Form |
| 14 | Lake, Marianne | CEO CCB | GRATs | Sell | 4152026 | 306.57 | 6,427 | 1,970,304 | 40,120,984 | Form |
| 15 | Erdoes, Mary E | CEO Asset & Wealth Management | Direct | Sell | 4152026 | 306.57 | 12,345 | 3,784,554 | 195,909,891 | Form |
| 16 | Beer, Lori A | Chief Information Officer | Direct | Sell | 4152026 | 306.59 | 3,166 | 970,660 | 21,445,266 | Form |
| 17 | Barnum, Jeremy | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 4152026 | 306.55 | 5,611 | 1,720,064 | 10,870,341 | Form |
| 18 | Bacon, Ashley | Chief Risk Officer | Direct | Sell | 4152026 | 306.55 | 7,558 | 2,316,931 | 77,513,585 | Form |
| 19 | Dimon, James | Chairman & CEO | Direct | Sell | 4152026 | 306.56 | 130,488 | 40,002,010 | 515,207,358 | Form |
| 20 | Leopold, Robin | Head of Human Resources | Direct | Sell | 3232026 | 295.06 | 433 | 127,761 | 19,155,295 | Form |
| 21 | Leopold, Robin | Head of Human Resources | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 307.14 | 432 | 132,684 | 20,072,481 | Form |
| 22 | Rohrbaugh, Troy L | Co-CEO CIB | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 307.11 | 50,000 | 15,355,670 | 34,175,272 | Form |
| 23 | Dimon, James | Chairman & CEO | Family Trusts | Sell | 2192026 | 307.19 | 69,512 | 21,353,561 | 1,293,060,250 | Form |
| 24 | Petno, Douglas B | Co-CEO CIB | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 306.40 | 3,487 | 1,068,429 | 111,784,576 | Form |
| 25 | Erdoes, Mary E | CEO Asset & Wealth Management | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 306.41 | 5,731 | 1,756,046 | 187,954,530 | Form |
| 26 | Beer, Lori A | Chief Information Officer | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 306.40 | 2,047 | 627,207 | 18,522,680 | Form |
| 27 | Barnum, Jeremy | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 306.42 | 2,892 | 886,157 | 7,293,943 | Form |
| 28 | Lake, Marianne | CEO CCB | GRATs | Sell | 2172026 | 306.41 | 3,907 | 1,197,158 | 42,070,295 | Form |
| 29 | Friedman, Stacey | General Counsel | GRAT | Sell | 2172026 | 306.40 | 3,404 | 1,042,985 | 18,981,167 | Form |
| 30 | Piepszak, Jennifer | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 1162026 | 312.79 | 8,571 | 2,680,888 | 22,216,244 | Form |
| 31 | Petno, Douglas B | Co-CEO CIB | Direct | Sell | 1162026 | 312.80 | 3,487 | 1,090,728 | 115,461,985 | Form |
| 32 | Lake, Marianne | CEO CCB | GRATs | Sell | 1162026 | 312.78 | 3,908 | 1,222,353 | 37,857,606 | Form |
| 33 | Friedman, Stacey | General Counsel | GRAT | Sell | 1162026 | 312.80 | 3,404 | 1,064,758 | 20,442,164 | Form |
| 34 | Erdoes, Mary E | CEO Asset & Wealth Management | Direct | Sell | 1162026 | 312.78 | 5,732 | 1,792,878 | 193,655,897 | Form |
| 35 | Beer, Lori A | Chief Information Officer | Direct | Sell | 1162026 | 312.80 | 2,047 | 640,295 | 19,549,487 | Form |
| 36 | Barnum, Jeremy | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 1162026 | 312.79 | 2,893 | 904,890 | 8,350,132 | Form |
| 37 | Bacon, Ashley | Chief Risk Officer | Direct | Sell | 1162026 | 312.79 | 7,364 | 2,303,393 | 74,180,575 | Form |
| 38 | Leopold, Robin | Head of Human Resources | Direct | Sell | 11072025 | 311.92 | 966 | 301,311 | 18,240,547 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 5, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&G Foundation | $770.0 Mil | 40.9% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Guidance Point Advisors, LLC | $118.0 Mil | 27.9% | 96 | Hold | 13F |
| Paralel Advisors LLC | $302.4 Mil | 12.6% | 108 | Hold | 13F |
| Unisphere Establishment | $1.4 Bil | 11.9% | 50 | Hold | 13F |
| DKRT Investments Corp. | $36.8 Mil | 9.3% | 48 | Hold | 13F |
| Wilsey Asset Management Inc | $43.7 Mil | 6.9% | 25 | ADD +8.0% | 13F |
| Mcdonald Capital Investors Inc/Ca | $78.9 Mil | 5.4% | 21 | Hold | 13F |
| Rempart Asset Management Inc. | $25.6 Mil | 5.4% | 36 | Hold | 13F |
| Carmel Capital Management L.L.C. | $18.3 Mil | 5.2% | 25 | Hold | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $24.5 Mil | 4.9% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Haverford Financial Services, Inc. | $16.6 Mil | 4.9% | 46 | Hold | 13F |
| Randolph Co Inc | $50.4 Mil | 4.8% | 43 | Hold | 13F |
| FFG Partners, LLC | $11.6 Mil | 4.6% | 35 | TRIM -32.9% | 13F |
| Matthew 25 Management Corp | $13.5 Mil | 4.5% | 20 | Hold | 13F |
| Codex Capital Asset Management L.L.C. | $11.0 Mil | 4.3% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Schwerin Boyle Capital Management Inc | $32.8 Mil | 4.2% | 47 | New | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unisphere Establishment | $1.4 Bil | 11.9% | 50 | Hold | 13F |
| S&G Foundation | $770.0 Mil | 40.9% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Paralel Advisors LLC | $302.4 Mil | 12.6% | 108 | Hold | 13F |
| Guidance Point Advisors, LLC | $118.0 Mil | 27.9% | 96 | Hold | 13F |
| Mcdonald Capital Investors Inc/Ca | $78.9 Mil | 5.4% | 21 | Hold | 13F |
| Randolph Co Inc | $50.4 Mil | 4.8% | 43 | Hold | 13F |
| Wilsey Asset Management Inc | $43.7 Mil | 6.9% | 25 | ADD +8.0% | 13F |
| DKRT Investments Corp. | $36.8 Mil | 9.3% | 48 | Hold | 13F |
| Schwerin Boyle Capital Management Inc | $32.8 Mil | 4.2% | 47 | New | 13F |
| Rempart Asset Management Inc. | $25.6 Mil | 5.4% | 36 | Hold | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $24.5 Mil | 4.9% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Carmel Capital Management L.L.C. | $18.3 Mil | 5.2% | 25 | Hold | 13F |
| Haverford Financial Services, Inc. | $16.6 Mil | 4.9% | 46 | Hold | 13F |
| Matthew 25 Management Corp | $13.5 Mil | 4.5% | 20 | Hold | 13F |
| FFG Partners, LLC | $11.6 Mil | 4.6% | 35 | TRIM -32.9% | 13F |
| Codex Capital Asset Management L.L.C. | $11.0 Mil | 4.3% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
JPM Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is constructive based on dominant market positions and resilient consumer demand, evidenced by 10% growth in card spending. Management's guidance for 2027 net interest income of approximately $107 billion suggests continued earnings power. However, rapidly growing receivables and poor cash flow metrics warrant close monitoring of upcoming credit quality reports.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Diversified Financial Services(Net Interest Margin x Interest-Earning Assets) + (Fee Rates x Fee-Generating Activity/Assets) Leveraging a low-cost, scaled deposit base to fund higher-yielding assets, combined with capturing leading market share in high-margin, fee-based businesses like investment banking and asset management.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests yes, as resilient demand and market share leadership are driving strong profitability.
- The firm delivered a 20% return on tangible common equity in Q3 2026.
- Consumer debit and credit card spending grew 10% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
- Assets under management grew 13% to $5.2 trillion, with $51 billion of net inflows in Q3.
- Maintained #1 ranking for global investment banking fees with 9.2% wallet share YTD.
- Management provided a central case for 2027 NII ex-markets of approximately $107 billion.
PRIMARY RISK
A sharp economic slowdown could cause credit losses to accelerate, overwhelming earnings. Accounts receivable growing 16.3% YoY, twice the rate of revenue, is a potential warning sign.
- Accounts receivable grew 16.3% YoY in Q3, outpacing 8.1% revenue growth.
- Trailing-twelve-month operating cash flow was negative $84.2 billion.
- The firm has potential legal losses up to approximately $1.3 billion.
- Management expects the 2026 card net charge-off rate to be approximately 3.2%.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Debit and Credit Card Sales Volume Growth | up 10% year-over-year for Q3 2026 - Accelerating | The growth in debit and credit card sales volume, a direct measure of consumer activity, accelerated in the third quarter of 2026. The year-over-year growth rate increased to 10%, following two quarters of steady growth. Management attributed the strength to "continued momentum across spending categories, including gas and travel, supported by consumer demand." |
| Assets Under Management (AUM) Growth | $5.2 trillion, up 13% year-over-year as of Q3 2026 - Decelerating | AUM growth decelerated from its Q2 peak but remains robust, driven by both market performance and strong client inflows. The firm reported long-term net inflows of $51 billion in Q3, consistent with the $50 billion in Q2 and $54 billion in Q1, indicating sustained franchise momentum despite fluctuations in the year-over-year growth rate. |
| Global Investment Banking fees wallet share | 9.2% (Year-to-date Q3 2026) | Measures the firm's market share and competitive standing in the highly profitable investment banking business. A #1 ranking indicates strong client engagement and deal flow. |
Peak Earnings vs. Durable Franchise
BULL VIEW
Bulls see a durable franchise, pointing to accelerating 10% consumer spending growth and a constructive IB pipeline as proof that the 20% ROTCE is sustainable.
CORE TENSION
Can resilient consumer demand and a ~$107B NII outlook for 2027 offset the risk from accounts receivable growing at twice the rate of revenue?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls. Management's guidance for the 2026 card charge-off rate has improved, and the 2027 NII outlook points to continued growth.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see peak cyclical earnings, arguing that receivables growing at 16.3% signals a coming credit downturn that will erase recent gains, a risk the flat stock reaction to Q3 results already reflects.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
full year 2026 | Full-Year Card Charge-Off Outlook Watch: Management expects the full-year 2026 Card Services net charge-off rate to be approximately 3.2%. |
Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 8:50 a.m. (Eastern) | Treasury and CIO Presentation Watch: JPMorgan Chase will present at the BancAnalysts Association of Boston Conference. |
November 2026 | Adverse Interchange Litigation Ruling Watch: Outcome of the court hearing on the class settlement. A rejection could prolong litigation and uncertainty. |
November 2026 | Interchange Litigation Hearing Watch: A court hearing is scheduled for final approval of a settlement in the interchange fee class action lawsuit. |
fourth quarter | Q4 NII Ex-Markets Guidance Watch: Management provides guidance for Q4 2026 Net Interest Income excluding Markets of approximately $25.5 billion. |
fourth quarter | Q4 Total NII Guidance Watch: Management provides guidance for Q4 2026 total Net Interest Income of about $28 billion. |
fourth quarter | Q4 Adjusted Expense Guidance Watch: Management provides guidance for Q4 2026 adjusted expense of about $27.5 billion. |
1/14/2027 | Credit Quality Deterioration Watch: Q4 results and 2027 guidance for provisions for credit losses and net charge-off rates, particularly in Card Services. |
1/14/2027 | Next Quarterly Earnings Report Watch: JPMorgan Chase is scheduled to report its next quarterly earnings. |
1/15/2027 | Peer Bank Earnings Report Watch: Peer Bank of America is scheduled to report earnings. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-10-26 | Regulator Issues Banking Access Report Details: The OCC issued a report in October 2026 on "Guaranteeing Fair Banking for All Americans," with the CFPB announcing intent to address customer harm identified. | +1.3% $331.58 -> $335.79 |
2026-10-13 | Q3 Earnings Met With Indifference Details: The company reported third-quarter 2026 results. The stock had a flat two-day reaction of 0.0% versus -1.0% for the S&P 500. | +0.3% $334.30 -> $335.28 |
2026-08-03 | American Dream Initiative Expanded Details: The firm announced its intent to deploy over $750 billion through 2035 to increase housing supply and support homeownership in the United States. | +1.6% $350.04 -> $355.75 |
2026-07-14 | Q2 Earnings Beat Market Details: The company reported its second-quarter 2026 financial results. The stock reacted positively, with a two-day return of 4.0% versus 1.0% for the S&P 500. | +3.7% $332.87 -> $345.19 |
2026-06-25 | Key Management Changes Announced Details: Doug Petno and Troy Rohrbaugh were named Co-Presidents of the company. Petno became sole CEO of the Commercial & Investment Bank. | -1.3% $330.31 -> $325.95 |
2026-05-18 | Common Stock Dividend Declared Details: The firm declared a quarterly dividend on its common stock. | -0.7% $295.00 -> $292.91 |
Position Sizing
5% - 7%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: JPM trades at roughly 16% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 10% for the S&P 500 (1.6x the market). A 5% - 7% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
BAC - Bank of America
U.S. Consumer FocusOffers a similarly massive U.S. consumer and commercial banking footprint, providing a comparable play on the health of the domestic economy but with a smaller, less volatile investment banking operation.
MS - Morgan Stanley
Wealth Management LeaderProvides more concentrated exposure to the high-margin, fee-based wealth and asset management businesses, which are less capital-intensive and sensitive to credit cycles than traditional banking.
A fortress-like global financial institution whose scale and diversification across consumer, corporate, and investment banking provide resilience and multiple avenues for profitable growth.
JPM operates as a leader across its key segments, leveraging its scale to invest in technology and talent. The firm is benefiting from a robust environment for investment banking and markets, while its massive consumer franchise provides stable, low-cost funding and recurring revenue. Management is focused on deploying its significant excess capital into organic growth opportunities which it believes will generate superior long-term returns for shareholders.
Sustained #1 wallet share in investment banking, continued strong net inflows in Asset & Wealth Management, and stable or growing retail deposit market share.
A significant downturn in capital markets activity, a sharp increase in credit losses beyond normalization, or regulatory actions that materially constrain a key business line.
Short-term stock price reactions to quarterly earnings beats or misses that don't alter the long-term trajectory of its core franchises.
Repricing Catalyst
Management's decision to slow share buybacks to redeploy a larger portion of its ~$30 billion in excess capital into organic growth initiatives, which, if successful, could drive higher long-term earnings power.
Commercial & Investment Bank (CIB)
$87.5B TTM (44% of Total)What It Is
Offers investment banking, lending, payments, market-making, financing, custody, and securities services to a global base of corporate and institutional clients.
Who Pays & How
Large corporations, financial institutions, and government entities pay for capital-raising (equity and debt), strategic advisory, payments processing, and market-making services. Clients choose JPM for its #1 global ranking in Investment Banking fees and its ability to provide a comprehensive suite of wholesale banking products globally.
Competition
Consumer & Community Banking (CCB)
$78.7B TTM (39% of Total)What It Is
Offers deposit, investment, and lending products, credit cards, mortgages, auto loans, and payment services to consumers and small businesses through branches, ATMs, and digital channels.
Who Pays & How
Consumers and small businesses pay through net interest margin on deposits, loans (mortgages, auto), and credit card balances, as well as fees for various services. They choose the firm for its extensive branch and ATM network, digital capabilities, and the Chase brand.
Competition
Asset & Wealth Management (AWM)
$25.8B TTM (13% of Total)What It Is
Provides investment and wealth management services, including investment management across various asset classes, retirement products, brokerage, custody, and lending to institutional, retail, and high-net-worth clients.
Who Pays & How
Institutional investors, retail investors, and high-net-worth individuals pay fees based on assets under management (AUM) and for brokerage and other services. They choose the firm for its global leadership in investment management and the breadth of its solutions.
Competition
JPMorgan Chase — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Diversified Banks Resources |
| Retail Banker International |
| International Banker |
| Global Finance Magazine |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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