Capital One Financial (COF)
Market Price (11/11/2026): $196.17 | Market Cap: $118.0 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Financials | Industry: Consumer Finance
Capital One Financial (COF)
Market Price (11/11/2026): $196.17Market Cap: $118.0 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Consumer Finance
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.5%, FCF Yield is 22% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, CFO LTM is 28 Bil, FCF LTM is 26 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 15 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Cybersecurity. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -9.3% | Key risksCOF key risks include [1] significant integration and synergy realization challenges from the complex Discover acquisition, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.5%, FCF Yield is 22% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, CFO LTM is 28 Bil, FCF LTM is 26 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 15 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Cybersecurity. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -9.3% |
| Key risksCOF key risks include [1] significant integration and synergy realization challenges from the complex Discover acquisition, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Down 14.8% from its Aug 14 high to Sep 30 (S&P 500 down 1.8%)
The stock declined amidst company-specific factors, including a preferred stock redemption. This redemption was announced on August 20, while other significant drops on August 17 and September 8 came without company headlines.
Oct 21: up 2.5% the day after its Oct 20 earnings report (S&P 500 up 0.5%)
The stock rose following its third-quarter 2026 earnings report, which beat analyst estimates for earnings and revenue. The company reported increased revenue, net income, and diluted EPS for the quarter.
Down 14.8% from its Aug 14 high to Sep 30 (S&P 500 down 1.8%)
The stock declined amidst company-specific factors, including a preferred stock redemption. This redemption was announced on August 20, while other significant drops on August 17 and September 8 came without company headlines.
Oct 21: up 2.5% the day after its Oct 20 earnings report (S&P 500 up 0.5%)
The stock rose following its third-quarter 2026 earnings report, which beat analyst estimates for earnings and revenue. The company reported increased revenue, net income, and diluted EPS for the quarter.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -6.0% change in COF stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -10.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 208.27 | 195.84 | -6.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 62,023 | 63,008 | 1.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 17.0% | 17.2% | 1.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.3 | 11.0 | -10.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 620 | 609 | 1.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -6.0% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| COF | -6.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.4% | 37.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | 2.4% | 55.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 3.2% change in COF stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 275.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 189.81 | 195.84 | 3.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 53,434 | 63,008 | 17.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.6% | 17.2% | 275.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 48.9 | 11.0 | -77.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 632 | 609 | 3.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 3.2% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| COF | 3.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.6% | 39.3% |
| Sector (XLF) | 12.2% | 60.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -9.6% change in COF stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -26.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 216.62 | 195.84 | -9.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 42,687 | 63,008 | 47.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.6 | 1.9 | -26.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 506 | 609 | -17.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -9.6% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| COF | -9.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.9% | 48.3% |
| Sector (XLF) | 12.7% | 72.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 102.5% change in COF stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 76.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 96.70 | 195.84 | 102.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 35,760 | 63,008 | 76.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.9% | 17.2% | 16.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 7.0 | 11.0 | 57.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 383 | 609 | -37.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 102.5% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| COF | 102.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 85.5% | 61.0% |
| Sector (XLF) | 88.0% | 77.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| COF Return | 49% | -34% | 44% | 38% | 38% | -18% | 120% |
| Peers Return | 35% | -16% | 21% | 45% | 39% | -2% | 175% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 101% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| COF Win Rate | 67% | 42% | 67% | 67% | 67% | 45% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 42% | 52% | 67% | 68% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 36% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| COF Max Drawdown | -22% | -44% | -29% | -14% | -28% | -31% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -17% | -37% | -23% | -14% | -27% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: JPM, BAC, WFC, C, AXP. See COF Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/10/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | COF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 83 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 37 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -27.0% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.1% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 76 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -37.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 541 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -59.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 146.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 278 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -26.5% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 212 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Capital One Financial's stock fell -28.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 39.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | COF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 83 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 37 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -27.0% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.1% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 76 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -37.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 541 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -59.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 146.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 278 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -26.5% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 212 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -27.8% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 291 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.8% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 290 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -24.2% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.9% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 203 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -81.6% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 442.4% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 402 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Capital One Financial's stock fell -28.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 39.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Capital One Financial (COF)
Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) is a diversified financial services holding company primarily operating through its banking subsidiaries, Capital One Bank. It provides a broad range of financial products and services, catering to markets in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. The company structures its business into three main segments: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking.
Capital One's core offerings include various deposit accounts, such as checking, savings, and money market options. On the lending side, it is a prominent provider of credit card loans, and also extends auto and retail banking loans. For businesses, the company offers commercial and multifamily real estate loans, as well as general commercial and industrial loans. Complementary services include credit and debit card products, extensive online direct banking capabilities, and treasury management services.
The company serves a wide array of customers, encompassing individual consumers, small businesses, and larger commercial clients. Capital One engages with its customer base through a comprehensive network that includes digital channels, traditional bank branches, and unique café locations, particularly concentrated in key U.S. states such as New York, Texas, and California.
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- A larger, full-service Discover Financial.
- JPMorgan Chase for credit cards and everyday banking.
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- Checking Accounts: Deposit accounts primarily used for everyday transactions and payments.
- Savings Accounts: Deposit accounts designed for accumulating funds and earning interest.
- Money Market Accounts: Interest-bearing deposit accounts that typically offer higher rates and some check-writing privileges.
- Certificates of Deposit (CDs): Time deposits held for a fixed period at a guaranteed interest rate.
- Credit Cards: Revolving credit lines enabling consumers and businesses to make purchases and borrow funds.
- Debit Cards: Cards linked to bank accounts for direct payments and cash withdrawals.
- Auto Loans: Financing provided to customers for the purchase of vehicles.
- Consumer Loans: Various other loan products offered to individual consumers.
- Commercial Loans: Financing provided to businesses for needs such as real estate, equipment, and working capital.
- Online Direct Banking: Digital platforms and services for remote account management and transactions.
- Treasury Management Services: Financial services assisting businesses with cash flow management, liquidity, and financial operations.
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Capital One Financial (COF) primarily sells its financial products and services to a broad base of individuals and businesses, rather than to a few major corporate customers. The company serves the following categories of customers:
- Consumers: Individuals who utilize credit card loans, auto loans, retail banking loans, checking and savings accounts, credit and debit card products, and online direct banking services.
- Small Businesses: Businesses that use various banking services, including deposits, treasury management, and potentially smaller commercial loans.
- Commercial Clients: Larger businesses and institutions that receive commercial and industrial loans, commercial and multifamily real estate loans, treasury management, and depository services.
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- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
- Visa Inc. (V)
- Mastercard Incorporated (MA)
- Equifax Inc. (EFX)
- TransUnion (TRU)
- Experian plc (EXPN.L)
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Richard Fairbank, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and Founder
Richard Fairbank is the founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer of Capital One. He co-founded Capital One with Nigel Morris in 1988, establishing the company's information-based strategy. Prior to founding Capital One, he was a Vice President and head of the banking practice at Strategic Planning Associates (now Mercer Management Consulting), where he created the banking practice in 1985.
Andrew Young, Chief Financial Officer
Andrew Young has served as Chief Financial Officer of Capital One Financial Corporation since March 2021. He joined Capital One in 1996 and has held various leadership positions within the company, including Business Line CFO (2018–2021), CFO of Capital One, National Association (2018–2021), and Head of Corporate Planning/CFO of Infrastructure (2015–2018).
Matthew Cooper, President, Discover Integration; General Counsel and Corporate Secretary
Matthew Cooper serves as President of Discover Integration, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary at Capital One. He joined Capital One in 2009 and was appointed General Counsel in February 2018, later assuming the Corporate Secretary role in March 2022. In February 2024, he was named Integration Executive Officer for Capital One's acquisition of Discover. Before joining Capital One, he held senior positions at Genworth and GE Capital and worked in commercial litigation at law firms. He was also part of the founding team at Capital One Bank.
Sanjiv Yajnik, President of Financial Services
Sanjiv Yajnik has been the President of Financial Services at Capital One Financial Corporation since June 2009, overseeing the company's auto finance and home loans businesses. He joined Capital One in July 1998. Prior to his tenure at Capital One, he held positions as General Manager at Circuit City Stores (USA), Market Manager at PepsiCo (Canada), and Chief Engineer at Mobil Oil (International). He also holds 18 U.S. patents across 9 patent families.
Frank LaPrade III, Chief Enterprise Services Officer & Chief of Staff to the CEO
Frank LaPrade III has served as the Chief Enterprise Services Officer at Capital One Financial Corporation since 2010 and as Chief of Staff to the Chief Executive Officer since January 2004. He joined Capital One in January 1996. In his current role, he manages Information Technology, Brand Marketing, Corporate Development, Digital Banking, and Procurement. Before joining Capital One, he was a commercial and intellectual property litigator at McGuire Woods.
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Capital One Financial (COF) faces several key risks inherent to its business as a financial services holding company with significant exposure to credit cards and banking. These risks are primarily driven by economic factors, regulatory changes, and intense competition within the financial sector.
- Credit Risk and Economic Downturns: Capital One's substantial reliance on credit card loans, along with auto and retail banking loans, makes it highly vulnerable to fluctuations in economic conditions. An economic slowdown or recession can lead to increased loan default rates, particularly among customers with lower credit scores. This directly impacts the company's profitability through higher credit losses and the need for larger reserve builds.
- Interest Rate Risk: As a financial institution, Capital One's earnings and capital are exposed to adverse movements in interest rates. Changes in interest rates affect the present value and timing of future cash flows, impacting the value of the bank's assets, liabilities, and off-balance sheet items. This can significantly influence net interest income, a primary source of revenue for banks. Rising interest rates, for instance, can dampen the underlying value of assets and increase deposit funding costs, putting pressure on liquidity and capital.
- Regulatory Changes and Intense Competition: The financial services industry is subject to extensive and evolving regulatory oversight. Changes in laws, regulations, or their interpretation can materially impact Capital One's operations, potentially increasing compliance costs, restricting operational flexibility, and leading to penalties. Simultaneously, the company operates in a highly competitive landscape with both traditional banks and emerging fintech firms. This intense competition, especially in credit card lending and digital banking, necessitates continuous innovation and competitive pricing strategies to attract and retain customers, which can pressure profitability.
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Clear emerging threats for Capital One Financial (COF) include:
- Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) Services: Companies like Affirm, Klarna, and Afterpay are disrupting the traditional credit card model by offering point-of-sale financing with interest-free installment plans or fixed payments. This directly competes with Capital One's core credit card business for retail purchases, potentially eroding transaction volume, interest income, and customer loyalty.
- Neobanks and Fintech Challenger Banks: Digital-first financial institutions and fintechs, such as Chime, Varo, and Ally Bank, offer superior digital user experiences, lower fees, and often more competitive interest rates on deposits. These players directly threaten Capital One's consumer banking segment by attracting customers, particularly younger demographics, away from traditional checking, savings, and other deposit products.
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Addressable Markets for Capital One Financial's Main Products and Services
Credit Card Loans
- United States: The total outstanding credit card debt in the USA is projected to exceed USD 1.2 trillion in 2024. The U.S. credit card market size was valued at USD 190 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 388.4 billion by 2032.
- Canada: The total value of credit card transactions in Canada is estimated to be CAD $605 billion in 2025. The Canada Credit Cards market size in 2026 is estimated at USD 891.18 billion.
- United Kingdom: Outstanding credit card debt was £73.2 billion in March 2025. The market size of Credit Card Issuance in the UK was £18.7 billion in 2025. The UK credit card market is forecast to reach £309.1 billion by 2028.
Auto and Retail Banking Loans
- United States (Auto Loans): Americans owe $1.655 trillion in auto loan debt as of Q3 2025. The US Auto Loan Market size is projected to be USD 676.20 billion in 2025 and USD 709.13 billion in 2026.
- Canada (Auto Loans): The Canadian auto finance market reached a valuation of CAD 145 billion in outstanding auto loans as of 2023.
- United Kingdom (Auto Loans): The United Kingdom Auto Loan Market size was estimated at USD 90.12 billion in 2024, and is expected to reach USD 112.36 billion by 2029. The United Kingdom auto finance market reached a valuation of GBP 80 billion in 2023.
Commercial and Multifamily Real Estate Loans
- United States: The commercial real estate (CRE) mortgage market for income-producing properties is roughly $4.5 trillion, with an additional $467 billion in construction loans, as of March 2023. Multifamily lending origination volume totaled $288.7 billion in 2024.
- Canada: null
- United Kingdom: null
Commercial and Industrial Loans
- United States: null
- Canada: null
- United Kingdom: null
Consumer Banking (Checking accounts, money market deposits, savings deposits)
- United States: null
- Canada (Retail Banking): The Canada retail banking market generated a revenue of USD 102.1 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 174.1 billion by 2033.
- United Kingdom (Retail Banking): The UK retail banking market generated a revenue of USD 91.0 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 155.3 billion by 2033. The United Kingdom retail banking market is valued at approximately USD 71 billion.
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Capital One Financial (COF) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and underlying business strengths:
- Discover Acquisition and Integration: The acquisition of Discover Financial Services, finalized in May 2025, is a primary driver of significant revenue growth for Capital One. This strategic move is anticipated to generate substantial revenue and cost synergies by leveraging Discover's proprietary payments network and integrating its loan book. Capital One plans to migrate its debit card business to the Discover network, with credit card migration to follow, aiming for approximately $2.5 billion in combined revenue and expense synergies by Q2 2027. This integration is also expected to improve the company's net interest margin due to the higher-yielding assets from Discover.
- Organic Growth in Domestic Card Business: Beyond the impact of the Discover acquisition, Capital One's core domestic card business continues to demonstrate underlying growth in purchase volume and loans. Analysts project continued strong margins and stable credit within this segment, even amid competitive intensity. This organic expansion of its credit card portfolio contributes to steady top-line growth.
- Expansion of Digital Offerings and Technology Investments: Capital One is strategically investing heavily in technology, data, and artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance its digital services and overall customer experience. This focus is aimed at attracting a broader, tech-savvy customer base, increasing transaction volumes, and generating fee-based revenue. The company's goal is to leverage AI and advanced analytics to deliver personalized solutions, strengthen credit risk management, and drive innovation in product development.
- Growth in Consumer Banking, including Auto Loans: The Consumer Banking segment, particularly auto loans, has consistently shown year-over-year revenue growth. The company is focused on pursuing resilient growth in the auto business and has seen an increase in consumer banking average loans and deposits. This segment's performance contributes to the diversification and overall revenue expansion of Capital One.
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Share Repurchases
- Capital One Financial authorized a new $16 billion stock repurchase plan on October 20, 2025, which replaced a previous authorization.
- The company's annual share buybacks totaled $4.099 billion in 2025, $734 million in 2024, and $718 million in 2023.
- Prior to the 2025 authorization, Capital One had authorized $5 billion in share repurchases in January 2022, followed by an additional $5 billion in April 2022.
Share Issuance
- Capital One acquired Discover Financial Services in May 2025 through an all-stock transaction, converting each Discover common stock share into 1.0192 shares of Capital One common stock, amounting to approximately 257 million new shares.
- The company's shares outstanding increased by 41.11% in 2025 to 0.541 billion, largely due to the Discover acquisition.
- In January 2026, Capital One announced an agreement to acquire Brex for $5.15 billion, with the consideration split approximately 50% cash and 50% stock.
Outbound Investments
- Capital One completed the acquisition of Discover Financial Services on May 18, 2025, in an all-stock deal valued at $35.3 billion, aiming to transform the credit card industry and expand its payments network.
- The company announced a definitive agreement in January 2026 to acquire Brex for $5.15 billion, primarily to enhance its commercial banking and technology-led financial services offerings.
- In June 2023, Capital One acquired Velocity Black to improve its customer experience through innovative technology.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital One's operating expenses, which include significant technology and integration costs, increased by 39.44% to $66.971 billion in 2025, and by 10.56% to $48.028 billion in 2024.
- The company is heavily investing in technology, integration efforts, and expanding its card network operations, particularly following the Discover acquisition, to achieve its long-term strategic goals and improve efficiency.
- Significant integration expenses related to the Discover acquisition were reported, including $509 million in intangible amortization and $352 million in integration expenses in Q4 2025.
Peer Outperformance in Consumer Finance
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COF | Capital One Financial | 20.7% | 11.0x | -9.7% | 95.0% | 37.6% | — |
| ENVA | Enova International | 21.8% | 11.0x | 32.9% | 319.1% | 321.2% | +284pp |
| ECPG | Encore Capital | 19.1% | 6.6x | 117.8% | 164.0% | 84.6% | +47pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reinsurance | 6 | 32.7% | 70.9% | 122.4% | SPNT 194% · RGA 173% · RNR 138% |
| Investment Banking & Brokerage | 13 | -4.9% | 93.2% | 93.8% | IBKR 335% · SNEX 170% · GS 157% |
| Diversified Banks | 12 | 30.8% | 142.7% | 92.3% | CM 145% · JPM 131% · RY 128% |
| Life & Health Insurance | 20 | 12.0% | 56.9% | 85.7% | JXN 475% · UNM 267% · FG 232% |
| Multi-Sector Holdings | 3 | 17.4% | 61.3% | 73.6% | BRK-B 104% · VOYA 74% · JEF 40% |
| Property & Casualty Insurance | 42 | 16.1% | 72.6% | 68.7% | TRV 179% · ACGL 175% · PGR 170% |
| Multi-line Insurance | 9 | 9.3% | 74.9% | 60.9% | AIZ 119% · GNW 103% · L 97% |
| Regional Banks | 264 | 30.4% | 93.5% | 48.2% | CBC 280% · FCNCA 182% · NIC 141% |
| Insurance Brokers | 15 | 4.9% | 9.8% | 29.8% | LIFE 333% · ARX 90% · WTW 54% |
| Financial Exchanges & Data | 15 | 18.4% | 32.3% | 21.4% | CBOE 205% · VIRT 152% · CME 72% |
| Asset Management & Custody Banks | 84 | -5.3% | 20.8% | 14.0% | VCTR 268% · WT 239% · AAMI 226% |
| Diversified Financial Services | 4 | -6.2% | 19.4% | 7.7% | FRHC 140% · EQH 83% |
| Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance | 15 | -36.2% | 26.9% | 1.7% | FNMA 335% · FMCC 299% · ACT 160% |
| Consumer Finance ← | 30 | -0.7% | 76.5% | -0.1% | ENVA 321% · FCFS 128% · AXP 90% |
| Specialized Finance | 3 | 19.0% | 29.9% | -18.4% | HASI -18% · CACC -23% |
| Transaction & Payment Processing Services | 17 | 23.1% | 10.2% | -31.0% | V 104% · MA 90% · CPAY 89% |
| Mortgage REITs | 34 | -17.9% | -6.4% | -39.5% | RITM 36% · DX 16% · AGNC 11% |
| Diversified Capital Markets | 20 | -51.0% | -24.7% | -68.1% | LPLA 93% · TW 40% · RIOT -50% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 159.33 |
| Mkt Cap | 238.7 |
| Rev LTM | 90,176 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 20,082 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 12,178 |
| CFO LTM | 22,818 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 13,471 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | - |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | - |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 27.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 25.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.0% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Credit Card | 39,560 | 28,164 | 25,669 | 22,355 | 18,880 |
| Consumer Banking | 10,433 | 8,718 | 9,302 | 9,434 | 9,002 |
| Commercial Banking | 3,655 | 3,601 | 3,520 | 3,590 | 3,301 |
| Other | -214 | -1,371 | -1,704 | -1,129 | -748 |
| Total | 53,434 | 39,112 | 36,787 | 34,250 | 30,435 |
| $ Mil | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Credit Card | 3,663 | 3,808 | 4,024 | 2,345 | 3,526 |
| Consumer Banking | 1,620 | 1,860 | 2,253 | 2,110 | 1,260 |
| Commercial Banking | 894 | 1,025 | 1,195 | 1,291 | 827 |
| Other | -296 | -124 | -1,055 | -711 | -1,026 |
| Total | 5,881 | 6,569 | 6,417 | 5,035 | 4,587 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Banking | 1,225 | 1,460 | 2,258 | 2,250 | 3,676 |
| Commercial Banking | 1,043 | 1,209 | 691 | 843 | 1,532 |
| Credit Card | 645 | 3,292 | 3,457 | 4,927 | 7,758 |
| Other | -825 | -1,214 | -1,519 | -660 | -572 |
| Total | 2,088 | 4,747 | 4,887 | 7,360 | 12,394 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $195.84 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 119.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/16/1994 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -23.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $202.91 | $199.42 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -3.5% | -1.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 23.2% | 31.2% |
| Downside Capture | 114.14 | 133.81 |
| Upside Capture | 70.64 | 107.32 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 31.8% | 48.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.75 | 1.11 | 1.29 | 1.07 | 1.29 | 1.35 |
| Up Beta | -1.65 | -0.35 | 0.75 | 0.84 | 1.32 | 1.48 |
| Down Beta | 1.14 | 0.79 | 1.18 | 0.85 | 1.19 | 1.46 |
| Up Capture | 133% | 134% | 142% | 129% | 132% | 174% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 15 | 23 | 33 | 63 | 134 | 406 |
| Down Capture | 28% | 147% | 150% | 116% | 126% | 104% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 19 | 30 | 61 | 115 | 344 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with COF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COF | -8.7% | 31.2% | -0.28 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 11.8% | 15.3% | 0.51 | 72.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.7% | 13.7% | 0.62 | 48.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 0.3% | 28.9% | 0.00 | 14.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 34.5% | 21.3% | 1.28 | -33.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.7% | 14.2% | 0.53 | 26.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -27.7% | 43.5% | -0.63 | 29.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with COF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COF | 7.2% | 34.9% | 0.26 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 9.4% | 18.4% | 0.37 | 77.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.6% | 17.3% | 0.50 | 64.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.2% | 19.1% | 0.72 | 3.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 19.6% | 0.26 | 6.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.4% | 18.9% | -0.04 | 47.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 3.4% | 51.5% | 0.25 | 30.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with COF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COF | 12.2% | 37.3% | 0.42 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 13.5% | 22.1% | 0.55 | 82.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 18.0% | 0.71 | 67.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.7% | 16.6% | 0.58 | -0.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 21.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.9% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 55.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 59.5% | 66.3% | 0.99 | 20.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 10/29/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/20/2026 | 2.5% | 0.9% | |
| 7/21/2026 | -2.4% | 3.0% | 7.4% |
| 4/21/2026 | -1.5% | -5.1% | -7.1% |
| 1/22/2026 | 1.8% | -5.5% | -9.4% |
| 10/21/2025 | 1.5% | 1.8% | -6.4% |
| 7/22/2025 | 0.9% | -1.7% | -1.0% |
| 4/22/2025 | 3.7% | 7.6% | 9.8% |
| 1/21/2025 | 1.2% | 6.0% | 10.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 17 | 13 | 13 |
| # Negative | 8 | 12 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 1.6% | 4.6% | 9.0% |
| Median Negative | -2.4% | -4.0% | -5.3% |
| Max Positive | 9.2% | 16.9% | 22.5% |
| Max Negative | -7.5% | -10.8% | -9.4% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/20/2026 | 2.5% | 0.9% | |
| 7/21/2026 | -2.4% | 3.0% | 7.4% |
| 4/21/2026 | -1.5% | -5.1% | -7.1% |
| 1/22/2026 | 1.8% | -5.5% | -9.4% |
| 10/21/2025 | 1.5% | 1.8% | -6.4% |
| 7/22/2025 | 0.9% | -1.7% | -1.0% |
| 4/22/2025 | 3.7% | 7.6% | 9.8% |
| 1/21/2025 | 1.2% | 6.0% | 10.2% |
| 10/24/2024 | 5.2% | 6.2% | 22.5% |
| 7/23/2024 | 0.6% | 4.6% | -3.5% |
| 4/25/2024 | 0.2% | -2.8% | -5.3% |
| 1/25/2024 | 1.1% | 3.2% | 3.8% |
| 10/26/2023 | 9.2% | 16.9% | 19.3% |
| 7/20/2023 | 0.5% | -0.8% | -8.2% |
| 4/27/2023 | 1.4% | -10.8% | 7.9% |
| 1/24/2023 | -0.6% | 7.4% | 1.9% |
| 10/27/2022 | 4.9% | -3.2% | -1.4% |
| 7/21/2022 | -4.7% | -5.7% | -1.2% |
| 4/26/2022 | -6.0% | -2.7% | -8.6% |
| 1/25/2022 | 2.6% | -1.1% | 1.2% |
| 10/26/2021 | -7.5% | -7.8% | -5.1% |
| 7/22/2021 | -0.8% | 1.5% | 5.0% |
| 4/27/2021 | 3.9% | 9.4% | 15.3% |
| 1/26/2021 | -2.5% | 0.3% | 21.8% |
| 10/22/2020 | 1.6% | -4.7% | 9.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 17 | 13 | 13 |
| # Negative | 8 | 12 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 1.6% | 4.6% | 9.0% |
| Median Negative | -2.4% | -4.0% | -5.3% |
| Max Positive | 9.2% | 16.9% | 22.5% |
| Max Negative | -7.5% | -10.8% | -9.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/25/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/30/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/07/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/25/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/02/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/01/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/20/2020 | 10-K |
Insider Activity
Updated 11/9/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raskind, Peter E | Direct | Sell | 11092026 | 201.79 | 1,681 | 339,209 | 6,601,560 | Form | |
| 2 | Fairbank, Richard D | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 11062026 | 204.86 | 90,743 | 18,589,425 | 812,982,859 | Form |
| 3 | Fairbank, Richard D | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 10282026 | 202.86 | 90,743 | 18,407,891 | 815,186,584 | Form |
| 4 | Dean, Lia | Pres, Banking & Prem. Products | Direct | Sell | 10192026 | 195.86 | 1,887 | 369,588 | 11,616,065 | Form |
| 5 | Karam, Celia | Pres, Retail Bank | Direct | Sell | 10192026 | 195.86 | 1,927 | 377,422 | 10,923,896 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raskind, Peter E | Direct | Sell | 11092026 | 201.79 | 1,681 | 339,209 | 6,601,560 | Form | |
| 2 | Fairbank, Richard D | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 11062026 | 204.86 | 90,743 | 18,589,425 | 812,982,859 | Form |
| 3 | Fairbank, Richard D | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 10282026 | 202.86 | 90,743 | 18,407,891 | 815,186,584 | Form |
| 4 | Dean, Lia | Pres, Banking & Prem. Products | Direct | Sell | 10192026 | 195.86 | 1,887 | 369,588 | 11,616,065 | Form |
| 5 | Karam, Celia | Pres, Retail Bank | Direct | Sell | 10192026 | 195.86 | 1,927 | 377,422 | 10,923,896 | Form |
| 6 | Cooper, Matthew W | General Counsel & Corp Secy | Direct | Sell | 10072026 | 196.22 | 3,500 | 686,770 | 15,637,557 | Form |
| 7 | Karam, Celia | Pres, Retail Bank | Direct | Sell | 9162026 | 206.07 | 2,017 | 415,643 | 11,889,415 | Form |
| 8 | Dean, Lia | Pres, Banking & Prem. Products | Direct | Sell | 9162026 | 206.07 | 2,066 | 425,741 | 12,610,454 | Form |
| 9 | Cooper, Matthew W | General Counsel & Corp Secy | Direct | Sell | 9022026 | 214.10 | 3,500 | 749,350 | 17,811,835 | Form |
| 10 | Dean, Lia | Pres, Banking & Prem. Products | Direct | Sell | 8182026 | 225.52 | 2,193 | 494,566 | 14,266,632 | Form |
| 11 | Karam, Celia | Pres, Retail Bank | Direct | Sell | 8182026 | 225.52 | 1,888 | 425,782 | 13,465,361 | Form |
| 12 | Mouadeb, Mark Daniel | President, Card | Direct | Sell | 8172026 | 225.00 | 1,199 | 269,775 | 11,054,700 | Form |
| 13 | Raghu, Ravi | Pres, Software, Intl & Sm Bus | Direct | Sell | 8102026 | 218.49 | 50 | 10,924 | 5,741,480 | Form |
| 14 | Mouadeb, Mark Daniel | President, Card | Direct | Sell | 8052026 | 220.00 | 1,183 | 260,260 | 11,072,820 | Form |
| 15 | Cooper, Matthew W | General Counsel & Corp Secy | Direct | Sell | 8052026 | 219.33 | 3,500 | 767,655 | 19,014,595 | Form |
| 16 | Mouadeb, Mark Daniel | President, Card | Direct | Sell | 8042026 | 215.00 | 690 | 148,350 | 11,075,510 | Form |
| 17 | Raghu, Ravi | Pres, Software, Intl & Sm Bus | Direct | Sell | 8032026 | 209.78 | 9,726 | 2,040,360 | 5,523,195 | Form |
| 18 | Golden, Timothy P | SVP, Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 7302026 | 211.00 | 3,487 | 735,757 | 1,567,519 | Form |
| 19 | Cooper, Matthew W | General Counsel & Corp Secy | Direct | Sell | 7082026 | 208.00 | 3,500 | 728,000 | 18,760,352 | Form |
| 20 | Cooper, Matthew W | General Counsel & Corp Secy | Direct | Sell | 6022026 | 183.36 | 3,500 | 641,760 | 17,179,732 | Form |
| 21 | Haggerty, Kaitlin | Chief Human Resources Officer | Direct | Sell | 5142026 | 182.59 | 119 | 21,728 | 8,979,959 | Form |
| 22 | Haggerty, Kaitlin | Chief Human Resources Officer | Direct | Sell | 5142026 | 183.93 | 1,307 | 240,397 | 9,067,749 | Form |
| 23 | Cooper, Matthew W | General Counsel & Corp Secy | Direct | Sell | 5142026 | 183.93 | 3,500 | 643,755 | 17,876,892 | Form |
| 24 | Karam, Celia | Pres, Retail Bank | Direct | Sell | 5042026 | 192.58 | 1,749 | 336,822 | 11,858,884 | Form |
| 25 | Dean, Lia | Pres, Banking & Prem. Products | Direct | Sell | 4022026 | 185.61 | 1,692 | 314,052 | 12,148,917 | Form |
| 26 | Karam, Celia | Pres, Retail Bank | Direct | Sell | 4022026 | 185.61 | 1,099 | 203,985 | 11,753,382 | Form |
| 27 | Mouadeb, Mark Daniel | President, Card | Direct | Sell | 3022026 | 210.00 | 1,593 | 334,530 | 10,370,220 | Form |
| 28 | Mouadeb, Mark Daniel | President, Card | Direct | Sell | 2262026 | 202.62 | 1,509 | 305,755 | 10,328,602 | Form |
| 29 | Hanson, Jason P | Pres.- Global Payment Network | Direct | Sell | 2262026 | 205.00 | 3,729 | 764,445 | 8,247,150 | Form |
| 30 | Blinde, Neal | President, Commercial Banking | Direct | Sell | 2262026 | 190.51 | 38,135 | 7,265,238 | 6,391,924 | Form |
| 31 | Karam, Celia | Pres, Retail Bank | Direct | Sell | 2042026 | 218.25 | 2,108 | 460,071 | 12,935,459 | Form |
| 32 | Raghu, Ravi | Pres, Software, Intl & Sm Bus | Direct | Sell | 1062026 | 250.00 | 13,450 | 3,362,500 | 7,584,250 | Form |
| 33 | Dean, Lia | Pres, Banking & Prem. Products | Direct | Sell | 1052026 | 244.35 | 3,163 | 772,879 | 16,296,190 | Form |
| 34 | Karam, Celia | Pres, Retail Bank | Direct | Sell | 1052026 | 244.35 | 2,064 | 504,338 | 14,996,493 | Form |
| 35 | Cooper, Matthew W | General Counsel & Corp Secy | Direct | Sell | 12032025 | 221.54 | 2,000 | 443,080 | 20,932,428 | Form |
| 36 | Karam, Celia | Pres, Retail Bank | Direct | Sell | 12032025 | 218.15 | 2,936 | 640,488 | 13,837,909 | Form |
| 37 | Dean, Lia | Pres, Banking & Prem. Products | Direct | Sell | 12032025 | 218.15 | 3,269 | 713,132 | 15,238,868 | Form |
| 38 | Laprade,iii, Frank G | Chief Enterprise Srvcs Officer | Direct | Sell | 11172025 | 222.03 | 17,840 | 3,961,081 | 10,727,558 | Form |
| 39 | Blinde, Neal | President, Commercial Banking | Direct | Sell | 11072025 | 221.83 | 43,200 | 9,583,056 | 16,198,027 | Form |
| 40 | Cooper, Matthew W | General Counsel & Corp Secy | Direct | Sell | 11062025 | 219.41 | 2,000 | 438,820 | 21,169,993 | Form |
| 41 | Fairbank, Richard D | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 11062025 | 220.68 | 103,487 | 22,837,982 | 883,009,193 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 11, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khrom Capital Management LLC | $149.6 Mil | 13.7% | 14 | New | 13F |
| Alua Capital Management LP | $98.1 Mil | 10.7% | 14 | TRIM -20.6% | 13F |
| Meritage Group LP | $239.5 Mil | 9.0% | 13 | TRIM -28.5% | 13F |
| Cander Asset Management LP | $35.3 Mil | 6.3% | 43 | ADD +148.6% | 13F |
| 140 Summer Partners LP | $71.6 Mil | 6.3% | 20 | TRIM -35.8% | 13F |
| Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb L.P. | $368.1 Mil | 6.1% | 50 | Hold | 13F |
| CAS Investment Partners, LLC | $105.0 Mil | 6.0% | 5 | Hold | 13F |
| Blue Grotto Capital, LLC | $51.3 Mil | 5.9% | 21 | New | 13F |
| Troluce Capital Advisors LLC | $55.7 Mil | 5.9% | 46 | ADD +118.1% | 13F |
| Sessa Capital IM, L.P. | $284.3 Mil | 5.4% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Avantyr Capital Partners, LP | $112.1 Mil | 5.4% | 22 | ADD +62.3% | 13F |
| Bruni J V & Co /Co | $50.6 Mil | 5.3% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Central Securities Corp | $63.9 Mil | 5.3% | 30 | Hold | 13F |
| Dendur Capital LP | $65.0 Mil | 4.8% | 21 | Hold | 13F |
| Brave Warrior Advisors, LLC | $183.2 Mil | 4.5% | 36 | Hold | 13F |
| M.D. Sass, LLC | $53.4 Mil | 4.1% | 36 | ADD +20.0% | 13F |
| Abrams Bison Investments, LLC | $77.5 Mil | 3.4% | 11 | TRIM -11.3% | 13F |
| Venator Management LLC | $13.9 Mil | 3.3% | 28 | ADD +14.5% | 13F |
| Lone Pine Capital LLC | $413.6 Mil | 3.3% | 36 | Hold | 13F |
| Mark Asset Management LP | $22.6 Mil | 3.0% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| PointState Capital LP | $124.4 Mil | 2.9% | 44 | TRIM -10.0% | 13F |
| Eldred Rock Partners, LLC | $10.8 Mil | 2.7% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Fernbridge Capital Management LP | $42.1 Mil | 2.7% | 17 | TRIM -9.4% | 13F |
| One Fin Capital Management LP | $6.0 Mil | 2.3% | 19 | TRIM -74.9% | 13F |
| Cooperman Leon G | $67.5 Mil | 2.2% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khrom Capital Management LLC | $149.6 Mil | 13.7% | 14 | New | 13F |
| Cooperman Leon G | $67.5 Mil | 2.2% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Blue Grotto Capital, LLC | $51.3 Mil | 5.9% | 21 | New | 13F |
| Cander Asset Management LP | $35.3 Mil | 6.3% | 43 | ADD +148.6% | 13F |
| Troluce Capital Advisors LLC | $55.7 Mil | 5.9% | 46 | ADD +118.1% | 13F |
| Loews Corp | $23.7 Mil | 0.2% | 25 | ADD +100.0% | 13F |
| Avantyr Capital Partners, LP | $112.1 Mil | 5.4% | 22 | ADD +62.3% | 13F |
| D1 Capital Partners L.P. | $203.7 Mil | 1.8% | 44 | ADD +34.8% | 13F |
| M.D. Sass, LLC | $53.4 Mil | 4.1% | 36 | ADD +20.0% | 13F |
| Venator Management LLC | $13.9 Mil | 3.3% | 28 | ADD +14.5% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egerton Capital (UK) LLP | $501.5 Mil | 5.5% | 23 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Southpoint Capital Advisors LP | $121.2 Mil | 2.8% | 38 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Sound Shore Management Inc /CT/ | $88.6 Mil | 2.8% | 37 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Palestra Capital Management LLC | $82.5 Mil | 2.9% | 28 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Goldentree Asset Management LP | $57.0 Mil | 3.1% | 29 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Blue Whale Capital LLP | $26.3 Mil | 1.4% | 24 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Campbell Capital Management Inc | $8.7 Mil | 3.0% | 46 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Philadelphia Financial Management of San Francisco, LLC | $6.7 Mil | 1.4% | 46 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Benson Investment Management Company, Inc. | $6.6 Mil | 2.3% | 50 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Third Point LLC | $25.5 Mil | 1.2% | 33 | TRIM -87.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| One Fin Capital Management LP | $6.0 Mil | 2.3% | 19 | TRIM -74.9% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| 140 Summer Partners LP | $71.6 Mil | 6.3% | 20 | TRIM -35.8% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Meritage Group LP | $239.5 Mil | 9.0% | 13 | TRIM -28.5% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Teewinot Capital Advisers, L.L.C. | $27.1 Mil | 2.2% | 33 | TRIM -21.6% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Alua Capital Management LP | $98.1 Mil | 10.7% | 14 | TRIM -20.6% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Abrams Bison Investments, LLC | $77.5 Mil | 3.4% | 11 | TRIM -11.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| PointState Capital LP | $124.4 Mil | 2.9% | 44 | TRIM -10.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Fernbridge Capital Management LP | $42.1 Mil | 2.7% | 17 | TRIM -9.4% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lone Pine Capital LLC | $413.6 Mil | 3.3% | 36 | Hold | 13F |
| Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb L.P. | $368.1 Mil | 6.1% | 50 | Hold | 13F |
| Sessa Capital IM, L.P. | $284.3 Mil | 5.4% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Meritage Group LP | $239.5 Mil | 9.0% | 13 | TRIM -28.5% | 13F |
| D1 Capital Partners L.P. | $203.7 Mil | 1.8% | 44 | ADD +34.8% | 13F |
| Brave Warrior Advisors, LLC | $183.2 Mil | 4.5% | 36 | Hold | 13F |
| Khrom Capital Management LLC | $149.6 Mil | 13.7% | 14 | New | 13F |
| PointState Capital LP | $124.4 Mil | 2.9% | 44 | TRIM -10.0% | 13F |
| Avantyr Capital Partners, LP | $112.1 Mil | 5.4% | 22 | ADD +62.3% | 13F |
| CAS Investment Partners, LLC | $105.0 Mil | 6.0% | 5 | Hold | 13F |
| Alua Capital Management LP | $98.1 Mil | 10.7% | 14 | TRIM -20.6% | 13F |
| Abrams Bison Investments, LLC | $77.5 Mil | 3.4% | 11 | TRIM -11.3% | 13F |
| 140 Summer Partners LP | $71.6 Mil | 6.3% | 20 | TRIM -35.8% | 13F |
| Cooperman Leon G | $67.5 Mil | 2.2% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Dendur Capital LP | $65.0 Mil | 4.8% | 21 | Hold | 13F |
| Central Securities Corp | $63.9 Mil | 5.3% | 30 | Hold | 13F |
| Troluce Capital Advisors LLC | $55.7 Mil | 5.9% | 46 | ADD +118.1% | 13F |
| M.D. Sass, LLC | $53.4 Mil | 4.1% | 36 | ADD +20.0% | 13F |
| Blue Grotto Capital, LLC | $51.3 Mil | 5.9% | 21 | New | 13F |
| Bruni J V & Co /Co | $50.6 Mil | 5.3% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Fernbridge Capital Management LP | $42.1 Mil | 2.7% | 17 | TRIM -9.4% | 13F |
| Cander Asset Management LP | $35.3 Mil | 6.3% | 43 | ADD +148.6% | 13F |
| Teewinot Capital Advisers, L.L.C. | $27.1 Mil | 2.2% | 33 | TRIM -21.6% | 13F |
| Third Point LLC | $25.5 Mil | 1.2% | 33 | TRIM -87.3% | 13F |
| Loews Corp | $23.7 Mil | 0.2% | 25 | ADD +100.0% | 13F |
COF Trade Sentinel
High Conviction
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Capital One is successfully executing its complex Discover integration, with synergies arriving ahead of schedule. Underlying loan growth in its core business is accelerating, from 3.9% to 6.0% year-over-year. With management planning to increase marketing in 2027, a clear path exists for renewed growth and realizing the value of its new payments network.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Interest-Based & TransactionalNet Interest Income, driven by (Loan Volume x Spread), and Non-Interest Income, driven by (Payment Volume x Interchange/Discount Rate). Expansion of Net Interest Margin (NIM) through advantageous funding costs and asset yields, coupled with effective management of credit losses through the economic cycle.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests yes; integration milestones are being met on schedule and core loan growth is accelerating.
- Core loan growth (excluding Discover) accelerated to 6% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
- Discover integration synergies are being achieved 'ahead of schedule'.
- Management plans to 'lean harder into marketing in 2027' to re-accelerate growth.
- Net Interest Margin expanded to 8.41% in Q3 2026.
- The Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio remains strong at 13.8%.
PRIMARY RISK
A macroeconomic downturn could spike credit losses in its large consumer loan book. Simultaneously, intense competition from large banks and the upcoming Visa/Mastercard settlement on interchange fees could compress margins and limit growth, offsetting integration benefits.
- Management has guided investors to expect 'lost interchange revenue' from a pending settlement.
- Competitors 'continue to invest heavily in marketing' in a crowded card market.
- The acquired legacy Discover loan portfolio shrank about 3% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
- Auto originations growth slowed in late 2025 due to 'Increased competitor activity'.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Domestic Card Purchase Volume Growth | 11% year-over-year growth in Q3 2026 - Stable | The significant year-over-year deceleration is primarily a base effect from lapping the large Discover acquisition, which closed in May 2025. Management stated the latest quarter's growth was "primarily driven by growth in legacy Capital One purchase volume," with the acquired Discover portfolio acting as a "modest headwind." |
| Domestic Card Ending Loan Balance Growth | 2% year-over-year growth in Q3 2026 - Weakening | The low headline growth rate is a result of a deliberate, temporary "brownout" of the acquired Discover loan portfolio, which shrank about 3% year-over-year. This masks accelerating growth in the core legacy Capital One portfolio, which grew about 6% year-over-year in Q3 2026, up from 5.3% in Q2 and 3.9% in Q1. |
| Credit Card Purchase Volume | $254.679 billion (Q3 2026) | Indicates the level of consumer spending on the company's credit cards, which drives both interchange fee revenue and potential interest-earning loan balances. |
| Global Payment Network Volume | $190.934 billion (Q3 2026) | Measures the total transaction volume processed on the acquired Discover, PULSE, and Diners Club networks, reflecting the scale and utilization of this key strategic asset. |
| Net Charge-Off Rate | 2.73% (Q3 2026) | Represents the percentage of loans deemed uncollectible. It is a primary indicator of credit quality and a key driver of the provision for credit losses. |
Integration Noise vs. Structural Slowdown
BULL VIEW
Bulls see the 6.4% quarterly revenue growth as temporary, pointing to accelerating core loan growth (up to 6% year-over-year) and on-time integration as proof of underlying strength before a 2027 marketing-led re-acceleration.
CORE TENSION
Can accelerating core loan growth (6% year-over-year) and integration synergies offset the temporary Discover loan 'brownout' (-3% year-over-year)?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls. Management delivered on its Q3 integration timeline, synergies are ahead of schedule, and the market rewarded the results with a 3.0% post-earnings outperformance.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see intense competition and the 3% shrinkage in the acquired Discover loan book as signs that re-igniting growth will be more costly and difficult than anticipated, with interchange headwinds looming.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
December 15, 2026 | Venture X Business Offer Ends Watch: A limited-time travel credit offer for existing Venture X Business cardholders is set to expire. |
1/14/2027 | Consumer Credit Weakness Watch: Peer commentary on credit card and auto loan delinquencies, charge-off rates, and changes in loss provisions. |
1/14/2027 | JPMorgan Chase Earnings Report Watch: Peer JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is scheduled to report quarterly earnings. |
1/14/2027 | Wells Fargo Earnings Report Watch: Peer Wells Fargo (WFC) is scheduled to report quarterly earnings. |
1/14/2027 | Citigroup Earnings Report Watch: Peer Citigroup (C) is scheduled to report quarterly earnings. |
1/15/2027 | Bank of America Earnings Report Watch: Peer Bank of America (BAC) is scheduled to report quarterly earnings. |
1/20/2027 | Marketing Expense Acceleration Watch: The magnitude of the Q4 marketing expense and the formal 2027 expense and efficiency ratio guidance. |
1/20/2027 | Discover Integration Delays Watch: Any change in the stated timeline for the back-book conversion or synergy realization targets. |
1/20/2027 | Company Earnings Report Watch: The company is scheduled to report its next quarterly earnings. |
1/28/2027 | American Express Earnings Report Watch: Peer American Express (AXP) is scheduled to report quarterly earnings. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-10-20 | Positive Reaction to Q3 Earnings Details: Following its Q3 2026 earnings report on October 20, 2026, the stock had a two-day reaction of 3.0%, which differed from the move for the S&P 500. | +3.4% $199.83 -> $206.66 |
2026-08-20 | Redeems Preferred Stock Details: The company announced it would redeem all one million outstanding shares of its Series M Preferred Stock on September 1, 2026, at a price of $1,000 per share. | -1.3% $220.73 -> $217.91 |
2026-08-14 | Softbank Discloses New Stake Details: An SEC filing revealed that Softbank Group Corp. initiated a new stake in Capital One during the second quarter. | -0.7% $223.04 -> $221.45 |
2026-07-29 | Quarterly Dividend Increased Details: | -1.1% $211.66 -> $209.40 |
2026-07-21 | Negative Reaction to Q2 Earnings Details: The company reported Q2 2026 earnings on July 21, 2026. The stock had a two-day reaction of -3.0%, underperforming the S&P 500. | -2.6% $206.04 -> $200.65 |
2026-06-24 | Company Announces Stress Test Results Details: The company posted a summary of its company-run stress test results, showing its modeling of the severely adverse scenario published by the Federal Reserve. | +3.6% $197.11 -> $204.18 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: COF trades at roughly 23% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 10% for the S&P 500 (2.3x the market). A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
AXP - American Express
Premium Consumer FocusAmerican Express has a powerful, established brand in the premium and heavy-spender segment, which Capital One is still building. It offers focused exposure to high-end consumer spending through its own closed-loop network.
JPM - JPMorgan Chase
Diversified Financial ScaleJPMorgan Chase offers far greater scale and diversification across consumer banking, investment banking, and asset management. Its extensive branch network provides a different distribution model and a source of deep customer trust.
A scaled consumer lender transforming into a vertically integrated payments company by leveraging its massive cardholder base to build scale on its newly acquired Discover network.
Capital One is fundamentally a data-driven consumer lender, primarily in credit cards and auto loans, funded by a large national deposit base. The recent acquisitions of Discover and Brex represent a strategic pivot to control its own payment rails and deepen its presence in business payments. The central challenge is executing this complex integration and realizing synergies while navigating the inherent credit risks of its consumer-focused loan book and investing heavily in technology and marketing.
Sustained growth in purchase volume, successful migration of Capital One's credit card portfolio to the Discover network, stable or improving credit metrics (delinquencies, charge-offs), and realization of guided cost and revenue synergies from acquisitions.
A significant deterioration in consumer credit quality, failure to achieve targeted synergies from the Discover integration, loss of market share in core lending businesses, or adverse regulatory action on interchange fees.
Quarter-to-quarter fluctuations in marketing spend, minor seasonal variations in credit metrics, and short-term stock price reactions to peer earnings.
Repricing Catalyst
Management's ability to demonstrate the 'run rate earnings power' of the combined company post-integration, as highlighted in the Q3 2026 earnings call, by successfully delivering on synergies and maintaining strong credit performance.
Credit Card
$47.0B TTM (75% of Total)What It Is
This segment provides domestic consumer and small business credit cards, corporate cards, international cards in the U.K. and Canada, and personal loans.
Who Pays & How
Cardholders pay interest on revolving balances and may pay annual fees. Merchants pay discount and interchange fees to accept card payments, which are a significant revenue source for the company.
Competition
Consumer Banking
$12.3B TTM (20% of Total)What It Is
This segment handles deposit gathering from consumers and small businesses, national auto lending, and services offered by the Global Payment Network (Discover, PULSE, Diners Club).
Who Pays & How
Auto loan customers pay interest on their loans. Depositors provide a stable, low-cost source of funding. Merchants and financial institutions pay fees for transactions processed on the company's payment networks.
Competition
Commercial Banking
$3.6B TTM (6% of Total)What It Is
This segment provides lending, deposit gathering, capital markets, and treasury management services to commercial real estate and commercial and industrial customers, typically with annual revenues between $20 million and $2 billion.
Who Pays & How
Commercial clients pay interest on loans and fees for various banking and treasury management services to manage their operations and financing needs.
Competition
Capital One Financial — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Consumer Finance Resources |
| Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) |
| InsideARM |
| The Nilson Report |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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