Encore Capital (ECPG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $52.26 | Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Consumer Finance
Encore Capital (ECPG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $52.26Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Consumer Finance
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.3% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 388% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 14% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -32%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -66% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.8% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Private Credit, and Consumer Debt Management. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 14% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Private Credit, and Consumer Debt Management. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.3% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -32%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -66% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 388% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.8% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ECPG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points explaining significant movements in Encore Capital (ECPG) stock, drawing from the most recent available financial information. While the specified period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, is in the future, the following factors from recent historical performance could drive such a stock increase:
1. Strong Third Quarter 2024 Financial Performance: Encore Capital Group reported robust third-quarter 2024 financial results, indicating strong operational execution. This included a significant increase in global portfolio purchases and collections, largely driven by its U.S. business, Midland Credit Management (MCM).
2. Favorable Market Conditions and Increased Purchasing Activity: The company benefited from highly favorable purchasing conditions in the U.S. market, with global portfolio purchases rising by 23% to $282 million. The U.S. market saw a record level of supply, fueled by the highest U.S. charge-off rate in over a decade and growth in lending.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ECPG Return | 10% | 59% | -23% | 6% | -6% | 11% | 49% |
| Peers Return | 1% | 28% | -19% | 13% | 20% | 7% | 52% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ECPG Win Rate | 67% | 75% | 42% | 58% | 25% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 46% | 54% | 29% | 38% | 44% | 42% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ECPG Max Drawdown | -52% | -24% | -27% | -22% | -21% | -43% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -37% | -6% | -24% | -18% | -9% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PRAA, GFCX, SUIG, AXP, COF.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ECPG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -48.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 93.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -58.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 137.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 136 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -55.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 126.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 900 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -79.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 383.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 168 days | 1480 days |
Compare to PRAA, GFCX, SUIG, AXP, COF
In The Past
Encore Capital's stock fell -48.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/29/2022. A -48.3% loss requires a 93.5% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ECPG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| 12312022 | ECPG | Encore Capital | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 1.4% | 5.9% | -21.9% |
| 06302022 | ECPG | Encore Capital | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -17.6% | -15.8% | -25.4% |
| 04302021 | ECPG | Encore Capital | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 37.3% | 46.9% | 0.0% |
| 07312020 | ECPG | Encore Capital | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -18.7% | 29.6% | -18.7% |
| 01312020 | ECPG | Encore Capital | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 7.6% | -12.5% | -50.4% |
| 07312019 | ECPG | Encore Capital | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -2.6% | -0.8% | -53.2% |
| 12312017 | ECPG | Encore Capital | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -13.1% | -44.2% | -48.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| 12312022 | ECPG | Encore Capital | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 1.4% | 5.9% | -21.9% |
| 06302022 | ECPG | Encore Capital | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -17.6% | -15.8% | -25.4% |
| 04302021 | ECPG | Encore Capital | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 37.3% | 46.9% | 0.0% |
| 07312020 | ECPG | Encore Capital | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -18.7% | 29.6% | -18.7% |
| 01312020 | ECPG | Encore Capital | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 7.6% | -12.5% | -50.4% |
| 07312019 | ECPG | Encore Capital | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -2.6% | -0.8% | -53.2% |
| 12312017 | ECPG | Encore Capital | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -13.1% | -44.2% | -48.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Encore Capital
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 52.26 |
| Mkt Cap | 73.2 |
| Rev LTM | 1,561 |
| Op Inc LTM | 323 |
| FCF LTM | 132 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 115 |
| CFO LTM | 160 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 167 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 17.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 25.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 6.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 23.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 30.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 26.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 73.2 |
| P/S | 1.7 |
| P/EBIT | 2.8 |
| P/E | 14.1 |
| P/CFO | 6.1 |
| Total Yield | 3.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 10.8% |
| D/E | 2.2 |
| Net D/E | 2.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 3.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 21.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 15.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 73.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 7.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -0.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 0.6% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt purchasing and recovery segment | 1,223 | ||||
| Corporate and other unallocated | 0 | ||||
| Changes in recoveries | 93 | 199 | |||
| Other revenues | 8 | 7 | 4 | 10 | |
| Revenue from receivable portfolios | 1,202 | 1,288 | 1,375 | 1,269 | |
| Servicing revenue | 95 | 121 | 115 | 127 | |
| Changes in expected current and future recoveries | 7 | ||||
| Allowance reversals on receivable portfolios, net | -8 | ||||
| Total | 1,223 | 1,398 | 1,614 | 1,501 | 1,398 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt purchasing and recovery segment | 75 | ||||
| Total | 75 |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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