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Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -1.3%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 388%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 14%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -32%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -66%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.8%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Private Credit, and Consumer Debt Management.
  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 14%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Private Credit, and Consumer Debt Management.
3 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -1.3%
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -32%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -66%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 388%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.8%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ECPG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are key points explaining significant movements in Encore Capital (ECPG) stock, drawing from the most recent available financial information. While the specified period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, is in the future, the following factors from recent historical performance could drive such a stock increase:

1. Strong Third Quarter 2024 Financial Performance: Encore Capital Group reported robust third-quarter 2024 financial results, indicating strong operational execution. This included a significant increase in global portfolio purchases and collections, largely driven by its U.S. business, Midland Credit Management (MCM).

2. Favorable Market Conditions and Increased Purchasing Activity: The company benefited from highly favorable purchasing conditions in the U.S. market, with global portfolio purchases rising by 23% to $282 million. The U.S. market saw a record level of supply, fueled by the highest U.S. charge-off rate in over a decade and growth in lending.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ECPG Return10%59%-23%6%-6%11%49%
Peers Return1%28%-19%13%20%7%52%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ECPG Win Rate67%75%42%58%25%50% 
Peers Win Rate46%54%29%38%44%42% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ECPG Max Drawdown-52%-24%-27%-22%-21%-43% 
Peers Max Drawdown-37%-6%-24%-18%-9%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PRAA, GFCX, SUIG, AXP, COF.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventECPGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-48.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven93.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-58.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven137.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven136 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-55.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven126.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven900 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-79.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven383.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven168 days1480 days

Compare to PRAA, GFCX, SUIG, AXP, COF


In The Past

Encore Capital's stock fell -48.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/29/2022. A -48.3% loss requires a 93.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Encore Capital (ECPG)

Better Bets than Encore Capital (ECPG)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ECPG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
ECPG_12312022_Short_Squeeze12312022ECPGEncore CapitalSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
1.4%5.9%-21.9%
ECPG_6302022_Short_Squeeze06302022ECPGEncore CapitalSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-17.6%-15.8%-25.4%
ECPG_4302021_Short_Squeeze04302021ECPGEncore CapitalSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
37.3%46.9%0.0%
ECPG_7312020_Short_Squeeze07312020ECPGEncore CapitalSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-18.7%29.6%-18.7%
ECPG_1312020_Short_Squeeze01312020ECPGEncore CapitalSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
7.6%-12.5%-50.4%
ECPG_7312019_Short_Squeeze07312019ECPGEncore CapitalSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-2.6%-0.8%-53.2%
ECPG_12312017_Short_Squeeze12312017ECPGEncore CapitalSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-13.1%-44.2%-48.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
ECPG_12312022_Short_Squeeze12312022ECPGEncore CapitalSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
1.4%5.9%-21.9%
ECPG_6302022_Short_Squeeze06302022ECPGEncore CapitalSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-17.6%-15.8%-25.4%
ECPG_4302021_Short_Squeeze04302021ECPGEncore CapitalSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
37.3%46.9%0.0%
ECPG_7312020_Short_Squeeze07312020ECPGEncore CapitalSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-18.7%29.6%-18.7%
ECPG_1312020_Short_Squeeze01312020ECPGEncore CapitalSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
7.6%-12.5%-50.4%
ECPG_7312019_Short_Squeeze07312019ECPGEncore CapitalSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-2.6%-0.8%-53.2%
ECPG_12312017_Short_Squeeze12312017ECPGEncore CapitalSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-13.1%-44.2%-48.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Encore Capital

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ECPGPRAAGFCXSUIGAXPCOFMedian
NameEncore C.PRA GoodFait.Sui American.Capital . 
Mkt Price52.2617.09-2.02368.13227.2452.26
Mkt Cap1.20.7--254.7145.273.2
Rev LTM1,5611,142-470,42848,2311,561
Op Inc LTM438207----323
FCF LTM132-62-618,94420,845132
FCF 3Y Avg115-69--016,90421,063115
CFO LTM160-58-621,13922,335160
CFO 3Y Avg167-65--018,80122,259167

Growth & Margins

ECPGPRAAGFCXSUIGAXPCOFMedian
NameEncore C.PRA GoodFait.Sui American.Capital . 
Rev Chg LTM17.5%15.8%-76.6%9.1%25.4%17.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg2.5%5.2%-0.3%11.6%13.4%5.2%
Rev Chg Q25.4%1.4%-250.4%10.8%54.4%25.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM6.4%0.4%-49.0%2.6%12.7%6.4%
Op Mgn LTM28.1%18.1%----23.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg24.3%10.4%----17.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM2.8%-0.8%----1.0%
CFO/Rev LTM10.2%-5.0%-158.3%30.0%46.3%30.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg12.5%-6.4%--15.0%29.2%55.1%12.5%
FCF/Rev LTM8.4%-5.4%-158.3%26.9%43.2%26.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg8.5%-6.9%--15.0%26.3%52.2%8.5%

Valuation

ECPGPRAAGFCXSUIGAXPCOFMedian
NameEncore C.PRA GoodFait.Sui American.Capital . 
Mkt Cap1.20.7--254.7145.273.2
P/S0.60.5--3.32.81.7
P/EBIT3.22.5----2.8
P/E-21.56.3--21.896.014.1
P/CFO6.1-10.1--10.96.16.1
Total Yield-4.7%15.8%--4.6%2.0%3.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%--0.0%0.9%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg10.8%-9.7%--10.7%36.3%10.8%
D/E4.16.3--0.30.42.2
Net D/E3.95.9--0.0-0.12.0

Returns

ECPGPRAAGFCXSUIGAXPCOFMedian
NameEncore C.PRA GoodFait.Sui American.Capital . 
1M Rtn20.8%16.7%--29.1%1.8%2.9%2.9%
3M Rtn25.6%1.2%--67.1%14.0%3.1%3.1%
6M Rtn36.5%18.8%--25.0%18.6%21.9%
12M Rtn8.1%-16.6%--23.2%23.0%15.6%
3Y Rtn3.7%-50.5%--143.8%145.0%73.8%
1M Excs Rtn20.9%16.7%--29.1%1.8%2.9%2.9%
3M Excs Rtn19.4%-4.6%--72.5%6.3%-4.6%-4.6%
6M Excs Rtn21.8%4.0%--10.3%3.9%7.2%
12M Excs Rtn-7.3%-32.9%--8.6%6.3%-0.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-66.3%-121.8%--80.5%67.6%0.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Debt purchasing and recovery segment1,223    
Corporate and other unallocated0    
Changes in recoveries 93199  
Other revenues 87410
Revenue from receivable portfolios 1,2021,2881,3751,269
Servicing revenue 95121115127
Changes in expected current and future recoveries   7 
Allowance reversals on receivable portfolios, net    -8
Total1,2231,3981,6141,5011,398


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Debt purchasing and recovery segment75    
Total75    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,235,180
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120256.9%
Average Daily Volume310,217
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.98
Basic Shares Quantity23,222,000
Short % of Basic Shares5.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231101202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022222202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021223202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Bell Ryan BPresident, MCM11102025Sell50.005,000250,0002,895,500Form
1Yung JohnPresident, Intl. and Cabot11102025Sell50.005,000250,0002,880,450Form