Tearsheet

Capital One Financial (COF)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $227.0 | Market Cap: $145.1 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Consumer Finance

Capital One Financial (COF)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $227.0
Market Cap: $145.1 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Consumer Finance

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Cybersecurity. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Cybersecurity. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

COF Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Capital One Financial (COF) stock movements are influenced by several key factors. While it is not possible to explain a specific 0.4% movement for a future period, general drivers of the stock's performance include:

1. Regulatory Approvals and Mergers & Acquisitions: Significant events like the approval of Capital One's acquisition of Discover Financial Services have a notable impact on investor sentiment. Analysts viewed this deal positively, anticipating long-term strategic benefits, market position enhancement, and expanded customer base, which led to an increase in COF's stock price. This type of news can also set the stage for broader industry consolidation.

2. Earnings Performance and Financial Metrics: Strong quarterly results, such as impressive adjusted earnings per share (EPS) and significant increases in total net revenue, can drive stock appreciation. Positive investor reactions are also often seen with robust pre-provision earnings growth, improvements in net interest margin, and effective management of credit losses.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
COF Return-3%49%-34%44%38%27%143%
Peers Return-11%22%-16%21%41%28%100%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
COF Win Rate67%67%42%67%67%70% 
Peers Win Rate52%60%40%46%62%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
COF Max Drawdown-59%-1%-38%-7%-5%-15% 
Peers Max Drawdown-48%-5%-28%-14%-4%-18% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: JPM, AXP, C, USB, GFCX. See COF Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCOFS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-51.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven107.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven552 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-60.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven152.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven278 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-33.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven49.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven394 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-90.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven906.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1945 days1480 days

Compare to JPM, AXP, C, USB, GFCX


In The Past

Capital One Financial's stock fell -51.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/13/2021. A -51.8% loss requires a 107.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Capital One Financial (COF)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to COF. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Capital One Financial

Peers to compare with:

Financials

COFJPMAXPCUSBGFCXMedian
NameCapital .JPMorgan.American.CitigroupU.S. Ban.GoodFait. 
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Growth & Margins

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Valuation

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Returns

COFJPMAXPCUSBGFCXMedian
NameCapital .JPMorgan.American.CitigroupU.S. Ban.GoodFait. 
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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Credit Card25,66922,35518,88017,59918,349
Consumer Banking9,3029,4349,0027,7047,375
Commercial Banking3,5203,5903,3012,9712,814
Other-1,704-1,129-74824955
Total36,78734,25030,43528,52328,593


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Credit Card3,4574,9277,7581,3613,127
Consumer Banking2,2582,2503,6761,3671,799
Commercial Banking6918431,53265621
Other-1,519-660-572-76-14
Dividends and undistributed earnings allocated to participating securities   -20-41
Income (loss) from discontinued operations, net of tax   -313
Issuance cost for redeemed preferred stock   -39-31
Preferred stock dividends   -280-282
Total4,8877,36012,3942,3755,192


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity8,974,517
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202527.0%
Average Daily Volume3,413,352
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.63
Basic Shares Quantity639,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251103202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024220202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023223202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022729202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021