Tearsheet

Capital One Financial (COF)


Market Price (12/20/2025): $243.63 | Market Cap: $155.7 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Consumer Finance

Capital One Financial (COF)


Market Price (12/20/2025): $243.63
Market Cap: $155.7 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Consumer Finance

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 110x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43%, CFO LTM is 22 Bil, FCF LTM is 21 Bil
  Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 63%
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 13%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.5%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 37%
  Key risks
COF key risks include [1] significant integration and synergy realization challenges from the complex Discover acquisition, Show more.
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Cybersecurity. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more.
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43%, CFO LTM is 22 Bil, FCF LTM is 21 Bil
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 13%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 37%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Cybersecurity. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more.
5 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
6 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 110x
7 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 63%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.5%
9 Key risks
COF key risks include [1] significant integration and synergy realization challenges from the complex Discover acquisition, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

COF Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The provided search results contain information about Capital One Financial (COF) stock performance and analyst outlook for *late 2025* and early 2026, including specific dates in October, November, and December 2025. This allows for an analysis of stock movements and contributing factors within or near the requested timeframe. Here are the key points for Capital One Financial's (COF) stock movement, specifically for the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to today (December 20, 2025): 1. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Adjustments. Financial analysts from firms like Wells Fargo, Evercore ISI, and Morgan Stanley have maintained or raised their price targets for COF during late 2025, citing positive catalysts and robust performance in the regional banks and consumer finance sectors. This strong analyst confidence, often linked to expectations of solid earnings growth and improved credit conditions, has likely contributed to upward stock movement.

2. Anticipated Strong Q3/Q4 2025 Earnings Performance. Wells Fargo, in particular, included Capital One in its Q4 2025 Tactical Ideas List, anticipating stronger-than-expected Q3 earnings beats and positive market catalysts such as synergies from the Discover acquisition and accelerated buybacks. Capital One did report Q3 2025 net income of $3.2 billion, or $4.83 per share. Such positive earnings reports and optimistic projections for future performance tend to drive investor confidence and stock appreciation.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
COF Return-3%49%-34%44%38%38%163%
Peers Return-16%35%-16%21%45%37%131%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
COF Win Rate67%67%42%67%67%67% 
Peers Win Rate47%62%42%52%67%68% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
COF Max Drawdown-59%-1%-38%-7%-5%-15% 
Peers Max Drawdown-50%-3%-27%-11%-3%-17% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: JPM, BAC, WFC, C, AXP. See COF Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCOFS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-51.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven107.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven552 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-60.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven152.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven278 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-33.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven49.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven394 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-90.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven906.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,945 days1,480 days

Compare to


In The Past

Capital One Financial's stock fell -51.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/13/2021. A -51.8% loss requires a 107.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Capital One Financial (COF)

Better Bets than Capital One Financial (COF)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to COF. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.5%13.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.0%2.0%-0.5%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.8%-4.8%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.8%5.8%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-12.1%-12.1%-12.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.5%13.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.0%2.0%-0.5%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.8%-4.8%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.8%5.8%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-12.1%-12.1%-12.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Capital One Financial

Peers to compare with:

Financials

COFJPMBACWFCCAXPMedian
NameCapital .JPMorgan.Bank of .Wells Fa.CitigroupAmerican. 
Mkt Price243.73317.2155.2793.01114.86376.51179.29
Mkt Cap155.7876.3412.6296.0209.1260.5278.3
Rev LTM48,231179,430107,26482,53285,24470,42883,888
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM20,845-119,74861,472-14,218-75,96818,9442,363
FCF 3Y Avg21,063-65,10734,2449,172-64,79916,90413,038
CFO LTM22,335-119,74861,472-14,218-69,39121,1393,460
CFO 3Y Avg22,259-65,10734,2449,172-58,15318,80113,986

Growth & Margins

COFJPMBACWFCCAXPMedian
NameCapital .JPMorgan.Bank of .Wells Fa.CitigroupAmerican. 
Rev Chg LTM25.4%8.6%8.9%0.2%8.4%9.1%8.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg13.4%13.4%5.2%2.9%5.0%11.6%8.4%
Rev Chg Q54.4%8.8%10.8%5.3%9.6%10.8%10.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM12.7%2.1%2.6%1.3%2.3%2.6%2.5%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM46.3%-66.7%57.3%-17.2%-81.4%30.0%6.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg55.1%-36.4%32.7%11.2%-72.0%29.2%20.2%
FCF/Rev LTM43.2%-66.7%57.3%-17.2%-89.1%26.9%4.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg52.2%-36.4%32.7%11.2%-80.3%26.3%18.7%

Valuation

COFJPMBACWFCCAXPMedian
NameCapital .JPMorgan.Bank of .Wells Fa.CitigroupAmerican. 
Mkt Cap155.7876.3412.6296.0209.1260.5278.3
P/S3.24.93.83.62.53.73.6
P/EBIT-------
P/E110.115.113.914.114.224.714.7
P/CFO7.0-7.36.7-20.8-3.012.31.8
Total Yield1.7%6.6%7.2%8.9%7.0%4.0%6.8%
Dividend Yield0.8%0.0%0.0%1.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg36.3%-7.5%11.7%6.9%-55.7%10.7%8.8%
D/E0.30.60.90.71.80.20.6
Net D/E-0.1-0.3-0.7-0.6-1.00.0-0.4

Returns

COFJPMBACWFCCAXPMedian
NameCapital .JPMorgan.Bank of .Wells Fa.CitigroupAmerican. 
1M Rtn20.4%4.6%6.8%10.5%15.1%9.2%9.9%
3M Rtn7.2%1.3%6.3%10.5%12.5%10.7%8.8%
6M Rtn23.7%16.5%22.8%24.7%48.3%26.7%24.2%
12M Rtn40.5%39.0%30.4%38.0%72.5%29.9%38.5%
3Y Rtn190.4%161.3%85.8%145.5%192.4%168.2%164.8%
1M Excs Rtn17.5%1.7%3.9%7.6%12.2%6.4%7.0%
3M Excs Rtn6.4%-0.1%4.9%7.7%9.5%8.6%7.1%
6M Excs Rtn8.2%1.7%7.2%8.7%33.1%12.9%8.5%
12M Excs Rtn23.3%22.9%12.6%21.3%53.0%13.3%22.1%
3Y Excs Rtn94.7%84.9%14.2%67.4%107.5%82.5%83.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Credit Card25,66922,35518,88017,59918,349
Consumer Banking9,3029,4349,0027,7047,375
Commercial Banking3,5203,5903,3012,9712,814
Other-1,704-1,129-74824955
Total36,78734,25030,43528,52328,593


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Credit Card3,4574,9277,7581,3613,127
Consumer Banking2,2582,2503,6761,3671,799
Commercial Banking6918431,53265621
Other-1,519-660-572-76-14
Dividends and undistributed earnings allocated to participating securities   -20-41
Income (loss) from discontinued operations, net of tax   -313
Issuance cost for redeemed preferred stock   -39-31
Preferred stock dividends   -280-282
Total4,8877,36012,3942,3755,192


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7,941,602
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-11.5%
Average Daily Volume4,326,321
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.84
Basic Shares Quantity639,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.2%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/21/20251.5%1.8%-6.4%
7/22/20250.9%-1.7%-1.0%
4/22/20253.7%7.6%9.8%
1/21/20254.0%5.1%6.6%
10/24/20245.2%6.2%22.4%
7/23/20240.6%4.6%-3.5%
4/25/20240.2%-2.8%-5.3%
1/25/20244.7%1.5%1.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive191314
# Negative51110
Median Positive3.7%6.1%8.5%
Median Negative-4.8%-2.8%-4.3%
Max Positive9.2%23.1%22.4%
Max Negative-7.5%-10.8%-8.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251103202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024220202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023223202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022729202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021