Popular (BPOP)
Market Price (8/3/2026): $175.0 | Market Cap: $11.3 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks
Popular (BPOP)
Market Price (8/3/2026): $175.0Market Cap: $11.3 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Regional Banks
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.4%, FCF Yield is 6.3% Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -225% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, and Wealth Management Technology. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% | Key risksBPOP key risks include [1] a high sensitivity to Puerto Rico's economic conditions due to its dominant market share on the island. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.4%, FCF Yield is 6.3% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -225% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, and Wealth Management Technology. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Key risksBPOP key risks include [1] a high sensitivity to Puerto Rico's economic conditions due to its dominant market share on the island. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Popular (BPOP) stock has gained about 15% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Popular, Inc. delivered robust financial results for fiscal Q2 2026, which ended on June 30, 2026, significantly surpassing analyst expectations and providing an optimistic outlook. The company reported net income of $278 million, a 13% increase from fiscal Q1 2026 and a 32% rise year-over-year. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $4.35, marking a 15% increase sequentially and a 41% surge year-over-year, exceeding the consensus analyst estimate of $3.72 by $0.63. This strong performance was also reflected in a 17% return on average tangible common equity (ROTCE), up from 15.5% in the prior quarter. Management further boosted investor confidence by raising its full-year 2026 net interest income (NII) growth target to 8%-9% from the previous 5%-7% and increased the full-year revenue guidance.
2. The company announced significant capital return initiatives, including a substantial dividend increase and a new share repurchase program, demonstrating confidence in its financial strength. On July 23, 2026, Popular, Inc. declared an increase in its quarterly common stock dividend by 20%, from $0.75 to $0.90 per share, effective starting with the dividend payable in fiscal Q4 2026. Concurrently, the Board of Directors authorized a new common stock repurchase program of up to $1 billion. These actions followed the full utilization of a previous $500 million share repurchase authorization and approximately $280 million in common stock repurchased year-to-date in 2026, signaling a strong commitment to enhancing shareholder value.
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Popular (BPOP) stock has gained about 15% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Popular, Inc. delivered robust financial results for fiscal Q2 2026, which ended on June 30, 2026, significantly surpassing analyst expectations and providing an optimistic outlook. The company reported net income of $278 million, a 13% increase from fiscal Q1 2026 and a 32% rise year-over-year. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $4.35, marking a 15% increase sequentially and a 41% surge year-over-year, exceeding the consensus analyst estimate of $3.72 by $0.63. This strong performance was also reflected in a 17% return on average tangible common equity (ROTCE), up from 15.5% in the prior quarter. Management further boosted investor confidence by raising its full-year 2026 net interest income (NII) growth target to 8%-9% from the previous 5%-7% and increased the full-year revenue guidance.
2. The company announced significant capital return initiatives, including a substantial dividend increase and a new share repurchase program, demonstrating confidence in its financial strength. On July 23, 2026, Popular, Inc. declared an increase in its quarterly common stock dividend by 20%, from $0.75 to $0.90 per share, effective starting with the dividend payable in fiscal Q4 2026. Concurrently, the Board of Directors authorized a new common stock repurchase program of up to $1 billion. These actions followed the full utilization of a previous $500 million share repurchase authorization and approximately $280 million in common stock repurchased year-to-date in 2026, signaling a strong commitment to enhancing shareholder value.
3. Positive sentiment from Wall Street analysts, coupled with favorable ratings and increased price targets, contributed to the upward stock movement. Popular (BPOP) holds a consensus "Buy" rating from 13 Wall Street analysts, with 11 analysts issuing a "Buy" rating and one a "Strong Buy" rating. The average 12-month price target for BPOP stands at $184.42, with individual targets reaching as high as $214.00, suggesting further upside potential. Several firms, including Barclays and Benchmark, raised their price targets for Popular following the strong fiscal Q2 2026 earnings report, reinforcing the positive outlook. Furthermore, Zacks Research assigned Popular a #2 (Buy) rank and a Momentum Style Score of A, indicating strong short-term price performance potential.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 17.1% change in BPOP stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 6.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 149.58 | 175.21 | 17.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,047 | 3,124 | 2.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.3% | 28.9% | 5.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.8 | 12.6 | 6.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 66 | 65 | 1.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 17.1% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BPOP | 17.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.9% | 28.6% |
| Sector (XLF) | 9.2% | 64.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 32.6% change in BPOP stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 10.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 132.10 | 175.21 | 32.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,982 | 3,124 | 4.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 26.1% | 28.9% | 10.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.4 | 12.6 | 10.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 67 | 65 | 3.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 32.6% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BPOP | 32.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.3% | 38.5% |
| Sector (XLF) | 7.1% | 64.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 56.5% change in BPOP stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 19.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 111.95 | 175.21 | 56.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,838 | 3,124 | 10.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 24.3% | 28.9% | 19.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.3 | 12.6 | 11.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 69 | 65 | 6.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 56.5% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BPOP | 56.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.2% | 39.7% |
| Sector (XLF) | 10.0% | 63.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 162.2% change in BPOP stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 176.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 8022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 66.82 | 175.21 | 162.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,979 | 3,124 | 4.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 35.2% | 28.9% | -18.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 4.6 | 12.6 | 176.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 72 | 65 | 10.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 162.2% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BPOP | 162.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 68.9% | 50.3% |
| Sector (XLF) | 68.4% | 66.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BPOP Return | 49% | -17% | 28% | 18% | 36% | 42% | 263% |
| Peers Return | 24% | -6% | -2% | -8% | 44% | 21% | 84% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BPOP Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 42% | 75% | 71% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 44% | 53% | 47% | 42% | 72% | 63% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BPOP Max Drawdown | -16% | -34% | -30% | -15% | -23% | -13% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -19% | -34% | -22% | -17% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: NEWT, ATLO, FCBM, HAPN, CBC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/31/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BPOP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 37 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -10.4% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.7% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 8 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -27.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.2% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 131 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -14.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 427 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -54.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 120.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 267 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -13.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.8% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Popular's stock fell -21.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 28.0% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | BPOP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 37 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -27.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.2% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 131 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -54.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 120.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 267 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -26.8% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.6% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 119 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -26.2% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.4% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -50.6% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 102.5% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 479 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -39.1% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.1% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2249 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -85.6% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 593.8% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4698 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -29.3% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.5% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 6530 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Popular's stock fell -21.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 28.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Popular (BPOP)
Popular, Inc. (BPOP) is a diversified financial services company providing retail, mortgage, and commercial banking products and services. It operates primarily in Puerto Rico, with additional presences in the United States mainland and the British Virgin Islands.
The company's offerings span traditional banking deposits, including savings, checking, money market, and certificates of deposit. On the lending side, Popular provides a comprehensive suite of commercial and industrial, commercial real estate, residential mortgage, and various consumer loans such as personal loans, credit cards, and auto financing. Beyond core banking, it also extends into investment banking, auto and equipment leasing, broker-dealer services, and insurance.
Popular, Inc. serves a broad customer base, ranging from individual consumers to small and large businesses. Its extensive branch and ATM network in Puerto Rico, coupled with operations in the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, positions it as a key financial provider catering to the diverse needs of these regional markets.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Popular, Inc. (BPOP):
- Bank of America for Puerto Rico and the Caribbean.
- The JPMorgan Chase of the Caribbean region.
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- Deposit Accounts: Popular offers a variety of deposit products including savings, checking (NOW), money market, and certificates of deposit for individuals and businesses.
- Lending Services: The company provides a comprehensive suite of loans, such as residential mortgages, commercial and industrial loans, consumer loans (personal, credit cards, auto, home equity), construction loans, and lease financing.
- Investment Banking: Popular delivers specialized financial services focused on capital raising, mergers, acquisitions, and strategic advisory for corporate and government clients.
- Broker-Dealer Services: It facilitates the buying and selling of securities, offering brokerage services to investors.
- Insurance Services: The company provides various insurance products to meet the needs of its clients.
- Digital Banking Services: Popular offers convenient online banking platforms and debit cards for managing finances digitally.
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Popular, Inc. (BPOP) serves a diverse customer base, including both individuals and businesses across Puerto Rico, the United States, and the British Virgin Islands. Given its broad range of retail, mortgage, and commercial banking products and services, it does not primarily sell to a few named corporate entities. Instead, its major customers can be categorized as:
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Individual Consumers and Retail Clients: This category includes individuals who utilize Popular, Inc.'s personal banking services. These services encompass various deposit accounts (savings, NOW, money market, demand deposits, and certificates of deposit), debit cards, online banking, and a variety of consumer loans such as personal loans, credit cards, automobile loans, and home equity lines of credit. Residential mortgage loans are also a significant offering for individual borrowers.
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Commercial Clients and Businesses: This category comprises a wide range of businesses, from small enterprises to larger corporations. These clients rely on Popular, Inc. for essential commercial banking needs, including commercial and industrial loans, commercial multi-family loans, commercial real estate loans, construction loans, and lease financing for automobiles and equipment. Businesses also utilize various deposit services and may leverage the company's investment banking solutions.
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Real Estate Developers and Investors: Given the specific emphasis on commercial multi-family, commercial real estate, and construction loans, a distinct segment of customers includes entities and individuals actively involved in real estate development, investment, and property management projects.
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Javier D. Ferrer President and Chief Executive Officer
Mr. Ferrer was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Popular, Inc., Banco Popular de Puerto Rico, and Popular Bank, effective July 1, 2025. He previously served as President of Popular, BPPR, and Popular Bank since May 2024, and as Chief Operating Officer of Popular and BPPR from January 2022 to June 2025, overseeing all business units in Puerto Rico, the mainland United States, and the Virgin Islands. Before joining Popular in 2014 as Chief Legal Officer and General Counsel, Mr. Ferrer was a founding partner of Pietrantoni Méndez & Alvarez LLC, a San Juan, Puerto Rico-based law firm, from 1992 to 2010. He also served as President and Vice-Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Government Development Bank for Puerto Rico.
Jorge J. García Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Mr. García has served as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Popular, Inc. since April 1, 2024. Prior to this role, he was the Senior Vice President, Corporate Comptroller, and Chief Accounting Officer of Popular from March 2012 to April 2024. From June 2009 to March 2012, Mr. García held the position of Senior Vice President and Director of Finance and Accounting of Popular Bank, which is Popular's banking subsidiary in the mainland United States.
Lidio V. Soriano Executive Vice President and Chief Risk Officer
Mr. Soriano has been the Executive Vice President and Chief Risk Officer of the Corporate Risk Management Group since August 2011. His role involves leading the corporate risk management functions for Popular, Inc.
Eduardo Negron Executive Vice President of Administration Group
Mr. Negrón has been the Chief Administration Officer of Popular since February 2022 and an Executive Vice President of Popular since April 2008. He has been responsible for the Administration Group since December 2010, overseeing human resources, marketing, and real estate.
Manuel A. Chinea Executive Vice President
Mr. Chinea is an Executive Vice President at Popular, Inc. He previously held responsibilities in Retail Banking Operations, Marketing, Product Development Care Center, Popular Investments, and Consumer Loan Units.
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1. Geographic Concentration Risk in Puerto Rico
A significant portion of Popular, Inc.'s business is concentrated in Puerto Rico, making its performance highly susceptible to the economic health and fiscal challenges of the Commonwealth. This geographic concentration exposes the company to risks related to government fiscal measures, federal funding, and public sector deposits, which can impact its asset quality and overall financial stability.2. Economic and Interest Rate Fluctuations
Popular, Inc.'s operations are sensitive to broader economic conditions and changes in interest rates. Fluctuations in these areas can directly affect the company's net interest income, the volume of loan originations, and the valuation of its investment portfolio, thereby impacting profitability. Deterioration in credit quality, including increases in non-performing assets and charge-offs, is often a direct consequence of adverse economic conditions.3. Regulatory and Compliance Risks
As a financial institution, Popular, Inc. operates within a highly regulated environment and must navigate a complex array of federal and local regulations. Heightened regulatory scrutiny and evolving compliance requirements, including those related to U.S. sanctions and consumer protection laws, pose a significant risk. Any identified deficiencies or non-compliance could result in substantial fines, mandated remediation, operational restrictions, or increased oversight, which could negatively impact profitability and strategic flexibility.AI Analysis | Feedback
- The rise of digital-only neobanks and challenger banks that offer streamlined, mobile-first banking experiences, potentially attracting younger and tech-savvy customers away from traditional banks.
- The increasing market penetration of specialized fintech companies that target specific banking services, such as online lenders for mortgages and personal loans, robo-advisors for investment services, and digital payment platforms, thereby disintermediating traditional banks.
- The expansion of large technology companies (Big Tech) into financial services, leveraging their vast user bases and data to offer banking, payment, and lending products that directly compete with established financial institutions.
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Addressable Markets for Popular, Inc.'s Main Products and Services
Here are the estimated addressable market sizes for Popular, Inc.'s main products and services in its operating regions:
United States Mainland
- Retail Banking: The United States retail banking market was valued at approximately USD 0.87 trillion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 1.08 trillion by 2030, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4.22%.
- Commercial Banking: The US commercial banking market size stood at USD 732.5 billion in 2025 and is forecasted to reach USD 915.45 billion by 2030, reflecting a 4.56% CAGR.
- Mortgage Loans (Home Loans): The US home loan market size is estimated to be USD 2.42 trillion in 2026 and is projected to grow to USD 3.17 trillion by 2031, with a 5.56% CAGR.
- Consumer Loans (Automobile Loans/Leases): The US auto loan market size is projected to be USD 676.20 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 899.17 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 4.87% from 2026 to 2031. Separately, the U.S. auto leasing, loans & sales financing market stood at USD 170 billion in 2024.
- Consumer Loans (Credit Cards): Outstanding balances on general-purpose credit cards in the United States were USD 1.071 trillion at the end of 2022.
- Investment Banking: The US investment banking market stands at USD 54.74 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 66.15 billion by 2030.
- Insurance Services: The U.S. insurance market size was USD 3.7 trillion in 2024.
Puerto Rico
- Banking Sector (Overall, including retail, commercial, and lending): Traditional banks in Puerto Rico had a projected revenue of USD 15.34 billion in 2024, with the overall banking sector market size expected to reach USD 19.80 billion by 2029.
- Residential Mortgage Loans: The total amount of residential mortgage loans across all financial institutions in Puerto Rico rose to US$10.97 billion in Q3 2024.
- Auto Lending: In 2019, auto financing companies (excluding commercial banks) held approximately USD 1.112 billion in loan balances, local credit unions held approximately USD 0.998 billion, and federal credit unions held approximately USD 0.283 billion in Puerto Rico. Loan balances for the auto business within the banking sector grew by 6.8% in 2024.
- Insurance Services: The insurance industry in Puerto Rico generated USD 20.57 billion in written premium in 2023.
British Virgin Islands
- Banking Market (by assets): The Territory's banking market size by asset reached approximately USD 2.86 billion at December 31, 2022, and grew by 4.5% between December 31, 2022, and December 31, 2023. Specific market sizes for individual products like retail, mortgage, or commercial banking within the British Virgin Islands were not readily available; however, financial services, as a whole, generate approximately 60% of the government's revenues.
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Popular, Inc. (BPOP) anticipates several key drivers for future revenue growth over the next two to three years, primarily stemming from continued loan expansion, improved net interest income and margins, the ongoing economic recovery in Puerto Rico, and strategic digital transformation initiatives.
- Loan Growth, particularly Commercial and Construction Loans: The company expects sustained growth in its loan portfolio. Management projects a 3-6% increase in loan growth for 2024, contributing to an expected 9-13% rise in net interest income. Strong commercial and construction loan growth in both Puerto Rico and the U.S. operations has been a significant contributor, reflecting the continued strength of the local economy and diversified product offerings. Looking ahead, consolidated loan growth is anticipated to be 3-4% from 2025 levels, primarily driven by solid commercial loan expansion.
- Net Interest Income (NII) and Net Interest Margin (NIM) Expansion: Popular, Inc. foresees an increase in net interest income and further expansion of its net interest margin. This is expected to be driven by a continued improvement in the earning asset mix, higher loan yields, balances across major lending categories, and improved yields on cash and investments. For 2025, NII is projected to increase by 7-9%, supported by the reinvestment of maturing securities into higher-yielding assets, new loan originations, and efforts to lower deposit costs. A 5-7% NII growth is anticipated for 2026, also aided by lower funding costs for Puerto Rico public deposits and online deposits at Popular Bank.
- Puerto Rico Economic Recovery and Onshoring Initiatives: The ongoing momentum and broad-based recovery of the Puerto Rican economy are significant tailwinds for Popular, Inc. This recovery is characterized by strength in construction, hospitality, and manufacturing sectors, coupled with rising labor participation and onshoring activities. New investments announced in Puerto Rico, exceeding $2.6 billion with nearly 5,000 direct jobs created in the past year, are expected to generate a multiplier effect and support loan growth. Additionally, the disbursement of federal recovery funds and the focus on promoting onshoring in high-margin sectors like pharmaceuticals and medical devices are expected to bolster economic activity for several years.
- Digital Transformation and Enhanced Customer Experience: Investments in digital infrastructure and origination platforms are expected to drive revenue growth through improved customer acquisition, retention, and operational efficiency. Initiatives such as the launch of a new digital platform for commercial cash management and branch modernization aim to provide an excellent omnichannel experience and strengthen profitability across various business lines.
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Share Repurchases
- In 2025, Popular, Inc. repurchased approximately $501.5 million in common stock.
- The company authorized a new common stock repurchase program of up to $500 million in July 2025, which supplemented an existing $500 million program from July 2024, leaving approximately $32.8 million available under the earlier authorization as of July 15, 2025.
- In 2024, Popular, Inc. repurchased about 2.3 million shares of common stock for approximately $217.3 million under a $500 million authorization. In 2022, the company repurchased 8.25 million shares of common stock totaling $631 million, including a $400 million accelerated share repurchase.
Capital Expenditures
- For the trailing twelve months leading up to March 2026, Popular, Inc.'s capital expenditures amounted to approximately $197.46 million.
- The company is making ongoing investments in its franchise, with a strategic focus on a multi-year transformation program that enhances technology, digital channels, and process efficiency.
- Key initiatives driving capital expenditures include exiting the U.S. mortgage business and transitioning to a cloud-based ERP system in January 2026, alongside branch modernization efforts and the launch of a new digital platform for commercial cash management.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Would You Still Hold Popular Stock If It Fell 30%? | 10/17/2025 | |
| BPOP Dip Buy Analysis | 07/10/2025 | |
| Time To Buy Popular Stock? | 02/28/2025 | |
| Popular (BPOP) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 02/17/2025 | |
| Popular (BPOP) Net Income Comparison | 02/15/2025 | |
| Fundamental Metrics: ... | 06/19/2024 | |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 24.87 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.2 |
| Rev LTM | 1,000 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 22 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -165 |
| CFO LTM | 23 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -164 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 14.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | - |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | - |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 28.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -54.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 22.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -57.7% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banco Popular de Puerto Rico (BPPR) | 2,750 | 2,553 | 2,398 | 2,504 | 2,240 |
| Popular United States (US) | 439 | 382 | 376 | 405 | 346 |
| Corporate | 15 | 11 | 14 | 161 | 18 |
| Intersegment Eliminations | 0 | -0 | -0 | -1 | -1 |
| Eliminations | -4 | -5 | -5 | -4 | -4 |
| Total | 3,199 | 2,941 | 2,782 | 3,064 | 2,600 |
| $ Mil | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banco Popular de Puerto Rico (BPPR) | 434 | 352 | ||
| Banco Popular North America | 66 | 49 | 131 | 61 |
| Eliminations | 0 | 0 | -0 | 0 |
| Intersegment Eliminations | 0 | |||
| Corporate | -103 | -533 | 296 | -101 |
| Banco Popular Puerto Rico | -18 | 340 | ||
| Total | 399 | -132 | 409 | 301 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banco Popular de Puerto Rico (BPPR) | 730 | 556 | 472 | 782 | 787 |
| Popular United States (US) | 88 | 78 | 56 | 170 | 134 |
| Corporate | 16 | -19 | 13 | 150 | 13 |
| Eliminations | 0 | -0 | -0 | 0 | -0 |
| Intersegment Eliminations | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0 | 0 |
| Total | 833 | 614 | 541 | 1,103 | 935 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banco Popular de Puerto Rico (BPPR) | 59,934 | 58,602 | 57,023 | 56,190 | 64,337 |
| Popular United States (US) | 15,062 | 14,333 | 13,812 | 11,558 | 10,399 |
| Corporate | 5,821 | 5,895 | 5,608 | 5,390 | 5,459 |
| Intersegment Eliminations | -67 | -265 | -426 | -422 | -32 |
| Eliminations | -5,402 | -5,520 | -5,259 | -5,079 | -5,065 |
| Total | 75,348 | 73,045 | 70,758 | 67,638 | 75,098 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $175.21 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 11.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/26/1990 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $162.79 | $137.67 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 7.6% | 27.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 19.0% | 24.4% |
| Downside Capture | 12.64 | 52.49 |
| Upside Capture | 83.99 | 93.96 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 29.1% | 39.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.95 | 0.36 | 0.40 | 0.61 | 0.75 | 0.90 |
| Up Beta | 0.68 | -0.30 | 0.18 | 0.40 | 0.69 | 0.82 |
| Down Beta | 1.65 | 0.55 | 0.41 | 0.44 | 0.84 | 1.01 |
| Up Capture | 132% | 108% | 78% | 99% | 91% | 101% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 28 | 36 | 74 | 145 | 399 |
| Down Capture | 31% | -4% | 14% | 52% | 61% | 93% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 15 | 27 | 52 | 107 | 353 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BPOP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BPOP | 57.3% | 24.3% | 1.80 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 9.4% | 14.8% | 0.39 | 63.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 18.8% | 12.9% | 1.07 | 39.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.6% | 28.1% | 0.74 | 9.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 30.2% | 19.7% | 1.22 | -11.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.7% | 13.9% | 0.69 | 35.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -46.8% | 43.0% | -1.34 | 20.7% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BPOP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BPOP | 22.8% | 29.8% | 0.71 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 11.3% | 18.4% | 0.47 | 70.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.6% | 17.1% | 0.56 | 54.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.1% | 18.5% | 0.75 | -0.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.0% | 19.5% | 0.35 | 10.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.5% | 18.9% | 0.03 | 46.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 13.4% | 53.3% | 0.43 | 20.7% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BPOP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BPOP | 22.2% | 33.3% | 0.68 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 13.6% | 22.0% | 0.56 | 74.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 57.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.3% | 16.1% | 0.57 | -1.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.3% | 18.0% | 0.32 | 21.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 49.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 57.6% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 15.1% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/23/2026 | -1.7% | -1.0% | |
| 4/23/2026 | 0.7% | -0.4% | 0.8% |
| 1/27/2026 | 6.3% | 11.2% | 15.0% |
| 10/23/2025 | -1.2% | -5.3% | -3.4% |
| 7/23/2025 | 0.3% | -0.3% | 3.6% |
| 4/23/2025 | 5.9% | 8.2% | 14.8% |
| 1/28/2025 | -1.3% | -3.7% | -3.3% |
| 10/23/2024 | -10.2% | -10.5% | -3.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 14 | 15 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.0% |
| Median Negative | -2.4% | -2.3% | -3.4% |
| Max Positive | 7.7% | 16.9% | 31.2% |
| Max Negative | -10.2% | -10.5% | -5.2% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/23/2026 | -1.7% | -1.0% | |
| 4/23/2026 | 0.7% | -0.4% | 0.8% |
| 1/27/2026 | 6.3% | 11.2% | 15.0% |
| 10/23/2025 | -1.2% | -5.3% | -3.4% |
| 7/23/2025 | 0.3% | -0.3% | 3.6% |
| 4/23/2025 | 5.9% | 8.2% | 14.8% |
| 1/28/2025 | -1.3% | -3.7% | -3.3% |
| 10/23/2024 | -10.2% | -10.5% | -3.3% |
| 7/24/2024 | -3.5% | 1.3% | -5.2% |
| 4/23/2024 | 3.1% | 1.1% | 7.1% |
| 1/25/2024 | 2.8% | 2.3% | -0.1% |
| 10/26/2023 | 7.7% | 9.5% | 20.4% |
| 7/26/2023 | 6.4% | 7.0% | -4.6% |
| 4/26/2023 | 3.2% | -0.3% | 2.8% |
| 1/25/2023 | -3.2% | 0.4% | 3.4% |
| 10/26/2022 | -6.8% | -5.1% | -5.2% |
| 7/28/2022 | -4.2% | -3.8% | 1.2% |
| 4/26/2022 | -1.7% | -0.3% | -2.1% |
| 1/27/2022 | -2.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% |
| 10/20/2021 | 2.2% | 6.0% | 5.0% |
| 7/22/2021 | -0.5% | 0.3% | 2.1% |
| 4/28/2021 | -2.0% | 1.1% | 7.9% |
| 1/28/2021 | 7.4% | 10.1% | 21.2% |
| 10/28/2020 | 2.4% | 16.9% | 31.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 14 | 15 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.0% |
| Median Negative | -2.4% | -2.3% | -3.4% |
| Max Positive | 7.7% | 16.9% | 31.2% |
| Max Negative | -10.2% | -10.5% | -5.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/02/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/11/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/03/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/02/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/11/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/03/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/01/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/09/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/09/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/10/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/01/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/09/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/10/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/11/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 03/02/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/08/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/09/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/27/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/23/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Non-Interest Income | 165.00 Mil | 167.50 Mil | 170.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Net Interest Income Growth | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.0% | ||||
| 2026 NCOs | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | ||||
| 2026 Operating Expenses Growth | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | ||||
| 2026 Effective Tax Rate | 14.0% | 14.5% | 15.0% | ||||
| 2026 Loan Growth | 3.0% | ||||||
| 2026 P.R. Public Deposits | 20.00 Bil | 21.00 Bil | 22.00 Bil | ||||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/23/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Effective Tax Rate | 14.0% | 15.0% | 16.0% | ||||
| 2025 Effective Tax Rate | 16.0% | 17.0% | 18.0% | ||||
Insider Activity
Updated 7/31/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferre, Maria Luisa | Direct | Sell | 7312026 | 173.79 | 3,076 | 534,566 | 5,978,406 | Form | |
| 2 | Ferre, Maria Luisa | The Luis A. Ferre Foundation, Inc. | Sell | 7312026 | 175.42 | 3,385 | 593,797 | 1,781,566 | Form | |
| 3 | Sanchez, Alejandro M | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 150.36 | 300 | 45,108 | 595,386 | Form | |
| 4 | Gonzalez-Noguera, Maria Cristina | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 5042026 | 148.51 | 6,200 | 920,787 | 1,671,564 | Form |
| 5 | Ballester, Alejandro M | Direct | Sell | 5012026 | 150.00 | 23,000 | 3,450,000 | 5,188,157 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferre, Maria Luisa | Direct | Sell | 7312026 | 173.79 | 3,076 | 534,566 | 5,978,406 | Form | |
| 2 | Ferre, Maria Luisa | The Luis A. Ferre Foundation, Inc. | Sell | 7312026 | 175.42 | 3,385 | 593,797 | 1,781,566 | Form | |
| 3 | Sanchez, Alejandro M | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 150.36 | 300 | 45,108 | 595,386 | Form | |
| 4 | Gonzalez-Noguera, Maria Cristina | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 5042026 | 148.51 | 6,200 | 920,787 | 1,671,564 | Form |
| 5 | Ballester, Alejandro M | Direct | Sell | 5012026 | 150.00 | 23,000 | 3,450,000 | 5,188,157 | Form | |
| 6 | Sanchez, Alejandro M | Direct | Sell | 3022026 | 140.85 | 1,451 | 204,373 | 480,977 | Form | |
| 7 | Ballester, Alejandro M | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 132.50 | 2,360 | 312,700 | 7,611,949 | Form | |
| 8 | Carrion, Richard L | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 113.50 | 25,000 | 2,837,500 | 21,907,770 | Form | |
| 9 | Rodriguez, Adorno Denissa | Senior VP & Comptroller | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 114.84 | 1,000 | 114,845 | 299,061 | Form |
| 10 | Monzon, Gilberto | EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 9032025 | 124.47 | 18,001 | 2,240,605 | 3,083,535 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 3, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
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