TeraWulf (WULF)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $11.93 | Market Cap: $4.8 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Diversified Capital Markets
TeraWulf (WULF)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $11.93Market Cap: $4.8 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Diversified Capital Markets
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -120 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -71% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Crypto & Blockchain, and Datacenter Power. Themes include Cryptocurrency Mining, and Sustainable Datacenter Power. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 27x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 201% | |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -46%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -404% | |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 245% | |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 121% | |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 25% | |
| Key risksWULF key risks include [1] a highly leveraged financial structure with substantial debt and liquidity concerns, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Crypto & Blockchain, and Datacenter Power. Themes include Cryptocurrency Mining, and Sustainable Datacenter Power. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -120 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -71% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 27x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 201% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -46%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -404% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 245% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 121% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 25% |
| Key risksWULF key risks include [1] a highly leveraged financial structure with substantial debt and liquidity concerns, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
WULF Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
**1. Strategic Partnership with Fluidstack and Google:** TeraWulf's stock experienced a significant surge in August 2025, reportedly skyrocketing 83.1%, following a multibillion-dollar lease agreement with Fluidstack, an AI cloud provider, for high-performance computing (HPC) capacity. The deal, valued at $6.7 billion for over 360 megawatts of compute capacity, was notably "backstopped" by Alphabet's Google for up to $3.2 billion, with Google also receiving warrants to acquire approximately 14% of TeraWulf's stock.
**2. Expansion and Momentum in High-Performance Computing (HPC) Infrastructure:** TeraWulf continued to execute on its strategic pivot towards becoming a leader in sustainable HPC infrastructure. This was evidenced by the commencement of recurring HPC lease revenue in the third quarter of 2025, securing over $17 billion in long-term, credit-enhanced customer contracts, and expanding its partnership with Fluidstack through a new 168 MW AI compute joint venture in October 2025.
**3. Substantial Capital Raises and Financings:** To support its aggressive expansion into HPC, TeraWulf completed several significant financing rounds. This included a $1.0 billion offering of convertible notes in August 2025, followed by a $3.2 billion private offering of senior secured notes in October 2025, and another $1.025 billion offering of convertible notes to fund its equity contribution to the Abernathy Joint Venture and enhance liquidity. These financings, totaling over $5 billion, provided long-term capital for the company's growth.
**4. Third Quarter 2025 Financial Performance:** On November 10, 2025, TeraWulf reported its third-quarter financial results, showcasing an 87% year-over-year revenue increase to $50.6 million, which included $7.2 million in initial HPC lease revenue. Despite this revenue growth, the company reported a larger-than-expected net loss of $455.05 million, with an earnings per share (EPS) of -$1.13 against a forecasted -$0.05. However, the stock reportedly still rose 3.8% after-hours, seemingly buoyed by positive market sentiment around strategic developments.
**5. Market Volatility and Concerns over Financial Health and AI Pivot:** Towards December 2025, TeraWulf's stock experienced significant declines, with reports indicating drops of -7.78% on December 17, 2025, and over 12% on December 15, 2025. This downturn was attributed to prevailing negative market sentiments, concerns over the company's high debt load (approximately $1.5 billion outstanding debt as of September 30, 2025), negative profitability margins, and investor anxiety regarding the ability to fully execute its pivot to a hyperscalar compute provider amid the broader AI capital expenditure race.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| WULF Return | 86% | 51% | -96% | 261% | 136% | 130% | 143% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | -3% | 65% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| WULF Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 17% | 58% | 67% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | 45% | 65% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| WULF Max Drawdown | -44% | -14% | -96% | -19% | -45% | -60% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | -47% | -42% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RIOT, MARA, CLSK, CIFR, HUT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | WULF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -98.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 7726.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -59.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 143.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 287 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -60.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 150.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 435 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -61.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 162.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,474 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to BTGO, DMNT, OMG, PURR, SIBO
In The Past
TeraWulf's stock fell -98.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -98.7% loss requires a 7726.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to WULF. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.2% | -4.2% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.4% | 4.4% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.5% | -10.5% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.2% | -4.2% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.4% | 4.4% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.5% | -10.5% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for TeraWulf
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 12.27 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.4 |
| Rev LTM | 653 |
| Op Inc LTM | -131 |
| FCF LTM | -888 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -532 |
| CFO LTM | -322 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -173 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 71.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 87.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 131.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 19.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -59.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -55.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 10.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -74.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -43.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -198.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -200.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.4 |
| P/S | 8.9 |
| P/EBIT | 7.8 |
| P/E | 8.1 |
| P/CFO | -19.4 |
| Total Yield | 4.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -22.7% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 83.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 14.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 507.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 70.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 12.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 330.7% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/28/2025 | 16.9% | 18.0% | 2.2% |
| 8/8/2025 | 1.8% | 76.3% | 86.2% |
| 5/9/2025 | -8.8% | 6.7% | 37.3% |
| 2/28/2025 | 16.1% | -6.9% | -24.7% |
| 11/12/2024 | -13.9% | -13.5% | -11.7% |
| 8/12/2024 | -7.3% | 21.8% | 23.8% |
| 5/13/2024 | -9.2% | -4.7% | 71.4% |
| 11/13/2023 | -4.7% | 12.9% | 61.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 10 | 10 |
| # Negative | 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 6.0% | 11.5% | 32.9% |
| Median Negative | -6.0% | -10.2% | -18.3% |
| Max Positive | 18.3% | 76.3% | 110.6% |
| Max Negative | -13.9% | -28.2% | -44.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11102025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3032025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8132024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5132024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3202024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11132023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8142023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5152023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3312023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8162022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5162022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3312022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |