TeraWulf (WULF)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $14.625 | Market Cap: $5.7 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Diversified Capital Markets
TeraWulf (WULF)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $14.625Market Cap: $5.7 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Diversified Capital Markets
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -26% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -121 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -84% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Crypto & Blockchain, and Datacenter Power. Themes include Cryptocurrency Mining, and Sustainable Datacenter Power. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 12x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 240% | |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -43%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -312% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -12% | |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 122% | |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 27% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Crypto & Blockchain, and Datacenter Power. Themes include Cryptocurrency Mining, and Sustainable Datacenter Power. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -121 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -84% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 12x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 240% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -43%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -312% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -12% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 122% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 27% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
WULF Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Strategic Shift to AI and High-Performance Computing (HPC) Infrastructure: TeraWulf's pivot towards developing renewable-powered AI and HPC infrastructure, including significant partnerships and contracts such as those with Google-backed Fluidstack, has significantly boosted investor confidence. This strategic diversification beyond traditional Bitcoin mining, with contracts to deliver substantial HPC hosting capacity in 2025, is seen as a key driver for the stock's performance.
2. Successful and Large-Scale Financing Activities: During the period, TeraWulf undertook several major financing initiatives. In August 2025, the company upsized an offering of $850 million in convertible senior notes and completed a $1.0 billion offering of 1.00% Convertible Notes due 2031 to fund data center expansion. Following the third quarter of 2025, TeraWulf closed a $3.2 billion private offering of 7.75% Senior Secured Notes due 2030 and a $1.025 billion offering of 0.00% Convertible Notes due 2032, collectively providing over $5 billion in long-term capital to support its aggressive growth and scale.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| WULF Return | 86% | 51% | -96% | 261% | 136% | 151% | 166% |
| Peers Return | -1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -19% | -19% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| WULF Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 17% | 58% | 67% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 22% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| WULF Max Drawdown | -44% | -14% | -96% | -19% | -45% | -60% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ABTC, DMNT, FIGR, GEMI, MIAX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | WULF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -98.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 7726.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -59.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 143.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 287 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -60.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 150.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 435 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -61.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 162.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1474 days | 1480 days |
Compare to ABTC, DMNT, FIGR, GEMI, MIAX
In The Past
TeraWulf's stock fell -98.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -98.7% loss requires a 7726.5% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| With TeraWulf Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | Return | ||
| Why TeraWulf Stock Moved: WULF Stock Has Gained 2068% Since 2022 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Favorable Change In Price To Sales Multiple (P/S) | |||
| WULF Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Time To Buy TeraWulf Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
| TeraWulf (WULF) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Why Has TeraWulf Stock Doubled? | August 20th, 2025 | ||
| Market Movers | Winners: WULF, OPEN, SLDP | Losers: EVEX, COHR, TPR | August 15th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to WULF. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for TeraWulf
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 14.43 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.6 |
| Rev LTM | 144 |
| Op Inc LTM | -5 |
| FCF LTM | -222 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -93 |
| CFO LTM | -6 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 19 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 19.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 16.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 22.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -84.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -33.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 5.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -19.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -5.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -155.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -86.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.6 |
| P/S | 11.8 |
| P/EBIT | -12.1 |
| P/E | -12.9 |
| P/CFO | -27.3 |
| Total Yield | -7.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -15.7% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -15.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -21.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 73.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 2.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 713.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -15.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -23.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 58.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -18.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 743.6% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3032025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8132024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5132024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3202024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11132023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8142023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5152023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3312023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8162022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5162022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3312022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 6302021 | 11122021 | 424B3 6/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |