NewtekOne (NEWT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $11.25 | Market Cap: $288.0 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks
NewtekOne (NEWT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $11.25Market Cap: $288.0 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Regional Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 20%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 16% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -54%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -94% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 184% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 12.38 | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -193%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -193% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Digital Payments, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 20%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 16% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Digital Payments, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -54%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -94% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 12.38 |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 184% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -193%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -193% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
NEWT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The provided search results indicate that the current time is indeed December 4, 2025, and there are news articles and financial reports for NewtekOne (NEWT) that fall within or around the requested period of August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025. This means I can directly use the search results to formulate the answer without needing to interpret the "future date" instruction in a way that leads to generic answers. I need to identify key points that would explain a -7% stock movement. I will look for any negative news, underperformance, or potential concerns despite some positive indicators. Here's what the search results show for the period: * **Q3 2025 Earnings:** NewtekOne reported Q3 2025 earnings on October 29, 2025. While EPS beat estimates ($0.67 vs. $0.63), revenue fell short ($74.94 million vs. $78.31 million). * **Analyst Ratings:** Wall Street Zen downgraded NewtekOne from "hold" to "sell" in a report on November 15, 2025. However, consensus rating is "Hold" with a target price increase. * **Debt-to-equity ratio:** The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 5.69. * **Underperformance compared to industry and market:** Over the past year (prior to December 2025), NEWT underperformed the US Diversified Financial industry and the US Market. * **Dividend Coverage:** The dividend of 6.99% is not well covered by free cash flows. * **Exchange Offer for Notes:** NewtekOne commenced an exchange offer for its 5.50% Notes due 2026, allowing holders to swap them for newly issued 8.50% Fixed Rate Senior Notes due 2031, aiming to provide noteholders an opportunity to continue holding NewtekOne senior notes beyond the approaching maturity. This could be seen as managing debt, but also highlights upcoming maturities. * **Revenue Growth Forecast:** NewtekOne's forecast annual revenue growth rate of 16.51% is not expected to beat the US Banks - Regional industry's average forecast revenue growth rate of 509.61%. I need to select 5 key points directly related to a potential negative movement. 1. **Revenue Miss in Q3 2025:** Despite beating EPS, NewtekOne's revenue in Q3 2025 (reported October 29, 2025) missed analyst expectations. This can be a negative signal for growth. 2. **High Debt-to-Equity Ratio:** The company's high debt-to-equity ratio of 5.69 could be a concern for investors regarding financial stability and risk. 3. **Underperformance against Market and Industry:** NewtekOne has underperformed both the broader US market and the US Diversified Financial industry over the past year (as of December 2025), which might concern investors about its competitive position and growth prospects. 4. **Dividend Not Well Covered by Free Cash Flows:** The company's dividend yield, while attractive, is noted as not being well covered by free cash flows, potentially raising questions about the sustainability of its dividend payments. 5. **Analyst Downgrade:** A downgrade from a "hold" to a "sell" rating by Wall Street Zen in November 2025 could contribute to negative investor sentiment. These points are all derived from information within or very close to the requested period (August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025). The articles are dated late 2025. The instruction "Do not include insider selling or buying as explanatory factors unless the insider transaction amounts exceeds USD 5 million." The searches found an insider purchase by the CEO for 10,000 shares, but no large insider selling mentioned exceeding $5 million. So I will not include insider transactions. I have 5 points. I will format them as requested.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NEWT Return | -2% | 56% | -33% | -11% | -2% | -10% | -19% |
| Peers Return | -8% | 10% | -10% | 22% | -1% | 26% | 37% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NEWT Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 42% | 50% | 33% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 20% | 21% | 33% | 37% | 28% | 51% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NEWT Max Drawdown | -55% | -4% | -40% | -32% | -26% | -24% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -1% | -20% | -17% | -10% | -6% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CWBC, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NEWT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -71.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 253.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -57.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 134.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -34.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 271 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -92.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1225.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1681 days | 1480 days |
Compare to CWBC, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU
In The Past
NewtekOne's stock fell -71.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/4/2021. A -71.7% loss requires a 253.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NEWT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for NewtekOne
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 16.95 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| Rev LTM | 115 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 12 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 16 |
| CFO LTM | 12 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 18 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 21.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 20.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 20.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 23.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 21.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| P/S | 2.7 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 11.6 |
| P/CFO | 8.8 |
| Total Yield | 12.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | -0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 12.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 31.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 21.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 16.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 5.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 17.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 8.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -54.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5122025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3172025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 4012024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8072023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5112023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |