Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 20%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 16%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -54%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -94%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 184%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 12.38
Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -193%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -193%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 36%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Digital Payments, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 20%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 16%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 36%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Digital Payments, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -54%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -94%
5 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 12.38
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 184%
7 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -193%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -193%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NEWT Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The provided search results indicate that the current time is indeed December 4, 2025, and there are news articles and financial reports for NewtekOne (NEWT) that fall within or around the requested period of August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025. This means I can directly use the search results to formulate the answer without needing to interpret the "future date" instruction in a way that leads to generic answers. I need to identify key points that would explain a -7% stock movement. I will look for any negative news, underperformance, or potential concerns despite some positive indicators. Here's what the search results show for the period: * **Q3 2025 Earnings:** NewtekOne reported Q3 2025 earnings on October 29, 2025. While EPS beat estimates ($0.67 vs. $0.63), revenue fell short ($74.94 million vs. $78.31 million). * **Analyst Ratings:** Wall Street Zen downgraded NewtekOne from "hold" to "sell" in a report on November 15, 2025. However, consensus rating is "Hold" with a target price increase. * **Debt-to-equity ratio:** The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 5.69. * **Underperformance compared to industry and market:** Over the past year (prior to December 2025), NEWT underperformed the US Diversified Financial industry and the US Market. * **Dividend Coverage:** The dividend of 6.99% is not well covered by free cash flows. * **Exchange Offer for Notes:** NewtekOne commenced an exchange offer for its 5.50% Notes due 2026, allowing holders to swap them for newly issued 8.50% Fixed Rate Senior Notes due 2031, aiming to provide noteholders an opportunity to continue holding NewtekOne senior notes beyond the approaching maturity. This could be seen as managing debt, but also highlights upcoming maturities. * **Revenue Growth Forecast:** NewtekOne's forecast annual revenue growth rate of 16.51% is not expected to beat the US Banks - Regional industry's average forecast revenue growth rate of 509.61%. I need to select 5 key points directly related to a potential negative movement. 1. **Revenue Miss in Q3 2025:** Despite beating EPS, NewtekOne's revenue in Q3 2025 (reported October 29, 2025) missed analyst expectations. This can be a negative signal for growth. 2. **High Debt-to-Equity Ratio:** The company's high debt-to-equity ratio of 5.69 could be a concern for investors regarding financial stability and risk. 3. **Underperformance against Market and Industry:** NewtekOne has underperformed both the broader US market and the US Diversified Financial industry over the past year (as of December 2025), which might concern investors about its competitive position and growth prospects. 4. **Dividend Not Well Covered by Free Cash Flows:** The company's dividend yield, while attractive, is noted as not being well covered by free cash flows, potentially raising questions about the sustainability of its dividend payments. 5. **Analyst Downgrade:** A downgrade from a "hold" to a "sell" rating by Wall Street Zen in November 2025 could contribute to negative investor sentiment. These points are all derived from information within or very close to the requested period (August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025). The articles are dated late 2025. The instruction "Do not include insider selling or buying as explanatory factors unless the insider transaction amounts exceeds USD 5 million." The searches found an insider purchase by the CEO for 10,000 shares, but no large insider selling mentioned exceeding $5 million. So I will not include insider transactions. I have 5 points. I will format them as requested.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NEWT Return-2%56%-33%-11%-2%-10%-19%
Peers Return-8%10%-10%22%-1%26%37%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NEWT Win Rate67%67%42%50%33%50% 
Peers Win Rate20%21%33%37%28%51% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NEWT Max Drawdown-55%-4%-40%-32%-26%-24% 
Peers Max Drawdown-18%-1%-20%-17%-10%-6% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CWBC, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNEWTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-71.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven253.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-57.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven134.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven338 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-34.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven51.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven271 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-92.5%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1225.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1681 days1480 days

Compare to CWBC, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU


In The Past

NewtekOne's stock fell -71.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/4/2021. A -71.7% loss requires a 253.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About NewtekOne (NEWT)

Better Bets than NewtekOne (NEWT)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NEWT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for NewtekOne

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NEWTCWBCATLOAVBCLSBKNUMedian
NameNewtekOneCommunit.Ames Nat.Avidia B.Lake Sho.Nu  
Mkt Price11.3123.5321.9516.4715.0917.4416.95
Mkt Cap0.30.40.2--84.20.4
Rev LTM2691406090268,967115
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM-5203820-843,65712
FCF 3Y Avg-2292616-52,31716
CFO LTM-5194120-443,94112
CFO 3Y Avg-2283218-52,50618

Growth & Margins

NEWTCWBCATLOAVBCLSBKNUMedian
NameNewtekOneCommunit.Ames Nat.Avidia B.Lake Sho.Nu  
Rev Chg LTM21.8%36.1%13.1%-2.1%23.7%21.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg31.6%20.1%-2.3%-0.0%70.1%20.1%
Rev Chg Q20.7%22.2%19.4%-16.5%20.4%20.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.7%5.1%4.6%-4.0%5.0%4.7%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM-193.4%29.3%33.7%-4.2%17.4%44.0%23.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-91.8%29.1%31.7%-19.2%37.8%29.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-193.4%26.9%33.0%-8.3%15.3%40.8%21.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-91.9%23.7%27.6%-17.8%34.9%23.7%

Valuation

NEWTCWBCATLOAVBCLSBKNUMedian
NameNewtekOneCommunit.Ames Nat.Avidia B.Lake Sho.Nu  
Mkt Cap0.30.40.2--84.20.4
P/S1.12.82.7--7.42.7
P/EBIT-------
P/E4.911.711.6--28.811.6
P/CFO-0.69.77.9--16.88.8
Total Yield20.2%10.9%13.5%--3.5%12.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.3%4.9%--0.0%1.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-76.1%10.0%9.6%--4.3%6.9%
D/E2.60.20.2--0.00.2
Net D/E1.8-0.8-4.5---0.4-0.6

Returns

NEWTCWBCATLOAVBCLSBKNUMedian
NameNewtekOneCommunit.Ames Nat.Avidia B.Lake Sho.Nu  
1M Rtn9.4%11.0%5.5%7.2%7.0%8.1%7.6%
3M Rtn-6.0%12.9%13.0%9.1%13.4%17.0%12.9%
6M Rtn10.7%34.3%29.3%--46.1%31.8%
12M Rtn-14.3%10.3%32.6%--49.4%21.4%
3Y Rtn-24.8%23.2%8.7%--291.0%16.0%
1M Excs Rtn9.4%11.1%5.5%7.2%7.1%8.2%7.7%
3M Excs Rtn-12.1%6.4%4.9%1.3%9.3%11.9%5.7%
6M Excs Rtn-4.0%19.6%14.6%--31.3%17.1%
12M Excs Rtn-30.2%-3.5%21.1%--25.6%8.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-94.1%-49.3%-60.5%--240.5%-54.9%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,456,135
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-1.9%
Average Daily Volume198,460
Days-to-Cover Short Interest12.38
Basic Shares Quantity25,600,000
Short % of Basic Shares9.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251107202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025808202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025512202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024317202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024809202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024510202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023401202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023807202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023511202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022316202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022808202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021