Aon (AON)
Market Price (11/3/2026): $334.94 | Market Cap: $71.1 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Insurance Brokers
Aon (AON)
Market Price (11/3/2026): $334.94Market Cap: $71.1 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Insurance Brokers
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.5% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 3.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.3 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 3.9 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, Digital Health & Telemedicine, Aging Population & Chronic Disease, AI in Financial Services, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -38%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -75% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 20x Key risksAON key risks include [1] cyberattacks and data breaches that could compromise its brand as a trusted manager of sensitive client information and [2] a failure to attract and retain the top talent that is the foundation of its professional services model. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.5% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 3.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.3 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 3.9 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, Digital Health & Telemedicine, Aging Population & Chronic Disease, AI in Financial Services, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -38%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -75% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 20x |
| Key risksAON key risks include [1] cyberattacks and data breaches that could compromise its brand as a trusted manager of sensitive client information and [2] a failure to attract and retain the top talent that is the foundation of its professional services model. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Aon (AON) stock has lost about 5% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Persistent macroeconomic headwinds and a softening global commercial insurance market created pricing pressure.
The global commercial insurance market experienced a notable softening during fiscal Q3 2026 (ended September 30, 2026), with global commercial insurance rates falling by an average of 6% in fiscal Q2 2026 and property rates specifically dropping by 12% globally. This increasingly competitive environment, coupled with ongoing pricing pressure and capacity constraints in the U.S. casualty market, generated continuous pressure on Aon's core business and revenue growth potential despite the company's 6% organic revenue growth in fiscal Q3 2026.
2. Increased debt and projected higher interest expenses stemming from the USI acquisition led to investor caution regarding future profitability.
Aon's long-term debt increased significantly to $26.32 billion as of September 30, 2026, up from $14.66 billion at December 31, 2025, primarily due to financing for the pending USI acquisition. The company projected a substantial increase in fiscal Q4 2026 interest expense to approximately $410 million, compared to $206 million in fiscal Q3 2026, reflecting the full-quarter impact of the debt raised for this acquisition. Additionally, Aon anticipated approximately $160 million in USI-related transaction costs across 2026, largely recognized in fiscal Q3 and fiscal Q4 2026. These increased financial obligations likely contributed to investor concern and downward pressure on the stock during the period.
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Aon (AON) stock has lost about 5% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Persistent macroeconomic headwinds and a softening global commercial insurance market created pricing pressure.
The global commercial insurance market experienced a notable softening during fiscal Q3 2026 (ended September 30, 2026), with global commercial insurance rates falling by an average of 6% in fiscal Q2 2026 and property rates specifically dropping by 12% globally. This increasingly competitive environment, coupled with ongoing pricing pressure and capacity constraints in the U.S. casualty market, generated continuous pressure on Aon's core business and revenue growth potential despite the company's 6% organic revenue growth in fiscal Q3 2026.
2. Increased debt and projected higher interest expenses stemming from the USI acquisition led to investor caution regarding future profitability.
Aon's long-term debt increased significantly to $26.32 billion as of September 30, 2026, up from $14.66 billion at December 31, 2025, primarily due to financing for the pending USI acquisition. The company projected a substantial increase in fiscal Q4 2026 interest expense to approximately $410 million, compared to $206 million in fiscal Q3 2026, reflecting the full-quarter impact of the debt raised for this acquisition. Additionally, Aon anticipated approximately $160 million in USI-related transaction costs across 2026, largely recognized in fiscal Q3 and fiscal Q4 2026. These increased financial obligations likely contributed to investor concern and downward pressure on the stock during the period.
3. Cautious analyst sentiment and prevailing valuation concerns weighed on the stock prior to the fiscal Q3 2026 earnings announcement.
Leading up to the October 28, 2026, release of fiscal Q3 2026 earnings, analysts exhibited a cautious stance, with more downward adjustments to EPS and revenue estimates than upward ones. Aon shares traded at USD 273.49 on October 10, 2026, which was significantly below its 52-week high of USD 381.26, reflecting a general cautious sentiment among investors. Despite strong fiscal Q3 2026 earnings that saw a 3.42% stock price increase on the release day, the preceding market sentiment and ongoing valuation discussions, with some analysts maintaining a "Hold" rating, likely contributed to the overall negative stock movement during the specified period.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -7.1% change in AON stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -7.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 358.81 | 333.38 | -7.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 17,577 | 17,681 | 0.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.3% | 22.2% | -0.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.5 | 18.0 | -7.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 213 | 212 | 0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -7.1% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AON | -7.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.7% | -10.0% |
| Sector (XLF) | 1.1% | 46.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 7.8% change in AON stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 3.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 309.33 | 333.38 | 7.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 17,181 | 17,681 | 2.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.5% | 22.2% | 3.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.0 | 18.0 | -0.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 215 | 212 | 1.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 7.8% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AON | 7.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.9% | -23.6% |
| Sector (XLF) | 10.8% | 44.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -1.0% change in AON stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -32.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 336.69 | 333.38 | -1.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 17,028 | 17,681 | 3.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.0% | 22.2% | 39.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.7 | 18.0 | -32.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 216 | 212 | 1.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -1.0% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AON | -1.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.2% | -13.3% |
| Sector (XLF) | 11.3% | 41.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 10.6% change in AON stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 34.7% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 301.41 | 333.38 | 10.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 13,131 | 17,681 | 34.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.7% | 22.2% | 7.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.5 | 18.0 | -19.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 203 | 212 | -4.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 10.6% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AON | 10.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.0% | 13.0% |
| Sector (XLF) | 85.7% | 41.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AON Return | 43% | 1% | -2% | 24% | -1% | -5% | 66% |
| Peers Return | 26% | 7% | 17% | 36% | -14% | -3% | 78% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 101% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AON Win Rate | 67% | 42% | 50% | 75% | 42% | 45% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 48% | 48% | 67% | 48% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 36% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AON Max Drawdown | -12% | -25% | -16% | -17% | -20% | -29% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -20% | -23% | -18% | -15% | -31% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: WTW, AJG, BRO, RYAN, ERIE. See AON Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/2/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AON | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -10.4% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 305 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -11.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.4% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 21 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -14.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -38.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 403 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -12.4% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 39 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -17.5% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.2% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 68 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Aon's stock fell 0.0% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 0.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | AON | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -38.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 403 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Aon's stock fell 0.0% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 0.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Aon (AON)
Aon plc is a global professional services firm that helps organizations manage and mitigate risks, optimize retirement programs, and navigate health benefits. Operating worldwide, the company provides expert advice and solutions across three core areas: commercial risk, health, and wealth (retirement). Its comprehensive approach aims to empower clients to make better decisions and achieve their strategic objectives in an increasingly complex global environment.
Aon's services are diverse and specialized. Within commercial risk, it offers retail brokerage, cyber risk solutions, global risk consulting, and captive insurance management, alongside digital platforms like CoverWallet. For health, Aon provides health and benefits brokerage services and manages healthcare exchanges. In the reinsurance sector, the company advises on treaty and facultative reinsurance, insurance-linked securities, capital raising, strategic M&A, and corporate finance. Its wealth solutions include strategic consulting for retirement programs, actuarial services, risk management, and investment advice for a range of plan types.
The company primarily serves a broad spectrum of clients globally, including public and private corporations, as well as institutional entities. These clients rely on Aon's expertise to protect their assets, employees, and financial future. Aon's solutions are tailored for organizations seeking specialized guidance to address their most critical challenges in risk, human capital, and investments, ultimately fostering resilience and sustainable growth.
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- Aon is like a Deloitte or PwC, but dedicated to advising companies on their risk management, employee health plans, and retirement programs.
- Aon is like a major corporate law firm (such as Skadden Arps or Latham & Watkins), but focused on providing specialized solutions for companies' risk, health, and retirement challenges.
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- Commercial Risk Solutions: Provides retail brokerage, cyber, and global risk consulting services, alongside captives management to help clients manage commercial risks.
- Health Solutions: Offers health and benefits brokerage services and operates healthcare exchanges for client employees.
- Reinsurance Solutions: Delivers treaty and facultative reinsurance, insurance-linked securities, and advisory services for capital raising, restructuring, and M&A within the insurance sector.
- Wealth Solutions (Retirement & Investment): Offers strategic design, actuarial, and risk management consulting for retirement programs, plus advice on investment programs for various plan types.
- CoverWallet: A digital platform providing insurance solutions primarily to small and medium-sized businesses.
- Affinity Programs: Develops and manages specialized insurance programs for groups and organizations.
- Aon Inpoint: Provides advisory and consulting services specifically to insurance companies and reinsurers.
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Greg Case, President and Chief Executive Officer
Greg Case joined Aon in 2005. Before his tenure at Aon, he spent 17 years at McKinsey & Company, where he led the Global Insurance and Financial Services Practice and served on the Governing Shareholder Council. Prior to McKinsey, he worked for the investment banking firm Piper, Jaffray and Hopwood, as well as the Federal Reserve Bank. Case holds an MBA from Harvard Business School and has been recognized by the Harvard Business Review as one of the top 100 best-performing CEOs in the world multiple times.
Edmund Reese, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Edmund Reese was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Aon, effective July 29, 2024. He brings over 25 years of financial leadership experience from large public companies in the financial services, payments, and technology sectors. Before joining Aon, Reese served as CFO of Broadridge Financial Solutions since 2020. His previous experience includes roles at American Express, where he was Senior Vice President and CFO of its Global Consumer Services Group, and other financial leadership positions. He also held CFO roles at Merrill Lynch's U.S. Advisory Group and Citigroup Smith Barney's Corporate Client Group and Stock Plan Services. Reese earned an MBA from The Wharton School.
Lori Goltermann, Vice Chair
Lori Goltermann was elevated to serve as Vice Chair of Aon, effective March 31, 2026. She has been with Aon for over three decades, during which she has transformed the insurance and professional services industry. Prior to her current role, Goltermann served as Aon's CEO of Regions and North America and as CEO of the U.S. Commercial Risk and Health Solutions businesses. Her experience also includes leading the U.S. Health Solutions practice and the Private Equity Mergers & Acquisitions Practice within Aon.
Anne Corona, CEO of North America
Anne Corona was appointed CEO of North America, effective March 10, 2026. She has more than 25 years of experience at Aon, previously serving as CEO of Enterprise Clients and Global Chief Commercial Officer. Her earlier roles include CEO of Asia Pacific and president of Aon's Financial Services Group.
Farheen Dam, CEO of Enterprise Clients and Chief Client Officer
Farheen Dam was appointed CEO of Enterprise Clients and Chief Client Officer, effective March 10, 2026. She joined Aon in 2022 and possesses extensive leadership experience in healthcare and human capital. Before her current appointment, Dam served as the North America Health Solutions Leader for Aon, responsible for the growth, strategy, and execution of the Health and Benefits business.
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The key risks to Aon's business are:
- Cyber Attack or Data Breach: As a professional services firm heavily reliant on technology and data, Aon faces a significant and consistently top-ranked threat from cyber attacks and data breaches. This risk is not only a concern for Aon's own operations but also a primary challenge for its clients, directly impacting Aon's core business of providing risk management solutions.
- Geopolitical Volatility: Geopolitical instability has emerged as a major and increasingly interconnected risk, impacting global trade, supply chains, and regulatory environments, with tangible consequences for both Aon's clients and its own international operations. This dynamic environment requires Aon to adapt its services and strategies to navigate shifting alliances and potential disruptions.
- Intense Competition and Talent Retention: Aon operates in a highly competitive global market alongside major professional services firms such as Marsh & McLennan Companies and Willis Towers Watson. Maintaining market share requires continuous innovation and differentiation. Furthermore, attracting and retaining top talent is a critical and ongoing challenge for Aon, as human capital and specialized expertise are fundamental to delivering its professional services in risk, retirement, and health solutions, especially with evolving workforce dynamics and the integration of AI.
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Aon plc (AON) operates in several large addressable markets globally, providing advice and solutions focused on risk, retirement, and health.
Commercial Risk Solutions
- Commercial Insurance: The global commercial insurance market was valued at approximately USD 1,030.91 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 2,166.15 billion by 2034. North America holds a significant share of this market.
- Cyber Insurance: The global cyber insurance market size was estimated at USD 26.25 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 223.47 billion by 2034. North America is the dominant region, accounting for 36.4% of the global market in 2025. Other estimates place the global market at USD 16 billion to USD 20 billion in 2025, with a forecast of USD 30 billion to USD 50 billion by 2030.
- Global Risk Consulting: The global market for risk management consulting services was estimated at USD 139.78 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 231.82 billion by 2032. Another report valued the global risk consulting market at approximately USD 125.4 billion by the end of 2025, with a projection to reach USD 224.315 billion by 2033. North America accounted for nearly 38% of global consulting engagements in 2024.
Health Solutions
- Health & Benefits Brokerages (Employee Benefits Consulting): The global employee benefits strategy and consulting market is valued at USD 4.6 billion in 2025 and is projected to more than double to USD 10.5 billion by 2035. Another source estimates the global benefits consulting service market to be approximately USD 3.86 billion in 2025, growing to about USD 6.98 billion by 2034. North America dominates this market, contributing 50% of the total adoption.
- Healthcare Exchanges (Health Insurance Exchange): The global health insurance exchange market was valued at approximately USD 2.7 trillion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 5.3 trillion by 2033. The market in North America holds the largest revenue share.
Reinsurance Solutions
- Reinsurance: The global reinsurance market size was valued at USD 621.39 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 1403.7 billion by 2034. Another estimate valued the global reinsurance market at USD 711.75 billion in 2024, expected to reach USD 2,000.08 billion by 2034. North America contributed over 44% of the revenue share in 2024.
Wealth Solutions
- Retirement Programs & Actuarial Services: The global actuarial services market was valued at USD 24.75 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 38.69 billion by 2035. The US actuarial services market leads globally, holding over 35% of the market share. The global retirement planning market was approximately USD 127.8 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 198.6 billion by 2032. In the U.S., total retirement plan assets under management among Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs) rose to USD 7.96 trillion in 2025.
- Investment Programs (Investment Consulting / Financial Consulting): The global investment consulting service market has a current valuation of USD 91.52 billion, projected to reach USD 158.52 billion by 2032. The broader global financial consulting market was valued at USD 200 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 400 billion by 2033.
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Aon plc (symbol: AON) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market opportunities:
- Execution of the "Aon United" Strategy and Client-Centric Approach: Aon's overarching "Aon United" strategy is central to its growth. This approach focuses on addressing complex client needs at the intersection of Risk Capital and Human Capital, putting clients at the center of its service delivery and leveraging the firm's global capabilities to provide integrated solutions. This strategy is anticipated to drive sustainable, profitable growth.
- Sustainable Organic Revenue Growth driven by New Business and Client Retention: Aon consistently guides for mid-single-digit or greater organic revenue growth. This growth is largely fueled by winning new business, maintaining high client retention rates, and benefiting from positive market impacts across its core segments, including Commercial Risk, Reinsurance, Health, and Wealth Solutions.
- Strategic Investments and Expansion in High-Growth Solutions and Markets: The company is making strategic investments in areas identified for high growth. This includes leveraging opportunities in the data center market, which is seen as a "generational" and "robust and dynamic growth opportunity." Additionally, Aon is expanding its presence in specific geographic markets such as North America, EMEA, and Latin America, and focusing on the middle market, partly through contributions from acquisitions like NFP. Growth in specialized areas like insurance-linked securities and facultative placements within its Reinsurance Solutions segment also contributes to this expansion.
- Operational Leverage from Aon Business Services (ABS): While primarily aimed at driving efficiency and margin expansion, the Aon Business Services (ABS) platform is crucial for creating the capacity to fund growth investments. By standardizing operations and integrating platforms, ABS provides scale benefits and operating leverage, indirectly supporting future revenue growth by enabling further strategic initiatives and innovation.
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Share Repurchases
- In February 2022, Aon authorized an additional $7.5 billion in share repurchases, increasing the total authorization to approximately $9.2 billion, including $1.7 billion remaining from an existing program as of December 31, 2021.
- Aon repurchased $3.5 billion worth of shares in 2021.
- The company returned $1.6 billion in capital to shareholders in 2025, with $1 billion allocated to share repurchases, and plans to repurchase at least $1 billion in shares in 2026.
Share Issuance
- In June 2025, shareholders approved an amendment to the Aon plc 2011 Incentive Plan, which increased the maximum number of Class A Ordinary Shares available for issuance under the plan by 3,800,000 shares.
Outbound Investments
- Aon agreed to acquire NFP, a middle-market provider of risk, benefits, wealth, and retirement plan advisory services, for $13.4 billion in December 2023, with the acquisition completed in April 2024.
- In November 2024, Aon acquired UK-based insurance broker Griffiths & Armour for $418 million (or $455 million), with the deal completing in January 2025, aimed at expanding its regional presence in the UK and Ireland.
- Aon divested a majority of NFP's wealth business for an estimated $2.7 billion (expected $2.2 billion after-tax cash proceeds) one year after acquiring NFP.
Capital Expenditures
- Aon reported capital expenditures of $137 million in 2021, $196 million in 2022, $252 million in 2023, $218 million in 2024, and $263 million in 2025.
- For 2026, capital expenditures are estimated to be $271.3 million.
- A significant focus of capital expenditures includes investments in risk solutions, particularly for data centers, which represent a generational growth opportunity.
Peer Outperformance in Insurance Brokers
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AON | Aon | 10.5% | 18.0x | -1.0% | 5.9% | 14.0% | — |
| MRSH | Marsh | 8.6% | 24.2x | 17.8% | 11.6% | 35.6% | +22pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reinsurance | 6 | 37.5% | 74.0% | 118.3% | SPNT 170% · RGA 148% · RNR 138% |
| Investment Banking & Brokerage | 13 | -1.9% | 90.1% | 92.3% | IBKR 314% · SNEX 159% · HOOD 140% |
| Diversified Banks | 12 | 32.8% | 141.8% | 91.6% | CM 142% · RY 130% · JPM 126% |
| Life & Health Insurance | 20 | 17.2% | 52.4% | 78.2% | JXN 536% · UNM 303% · FG 188% |
| Property & Casualty Insurance | 42 | 21.7% | 72.7% | 65.0% | PGR 176% · TRV 176% · ACGL 166% |
| Multi-line Insurance | 9 | 10.2% | 68.9% | 63.6% | AIZ 100% · GNW 98% · L 97% |
| Multi-Sector Holdings | 3 | 9.8% | 52.4% | 57.5% | BRK-B 93% · VOYA 57% · JEF 35% |
| Regional Banks | 262 | 34.5% | 91.3% | 53.5% | CBC 263% · FCNCA 189% · NIC 146% |
| Financial Exchanges & Data | 15 | 19.8% | 33.8% | 32.6% | CBOE 176% · VIRT 144% · CME 71% |
| Insurance Brokers ← | 15 | 5.3% | 11.6% | 26.0% | LIFE 387% · ARX 89% · AJG 80% |
| Asset Management & Custody Banks | 85 | -6.1% | 21.7% | 8.8% | VCTR 257% · WT 230% · AAMI 191% |
| Consumer Finance | 30 | 5.9% | 72.9% | 5.4% | ENVA 397% · FCFS 137% · AXP 101% |
| Diversified Financial Services | 4 | -5.1% | 18.6% | 3.3% | FRHC 171% · EQH 80% |
| Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance | 14 | -48.7% | 20.2% | -0.2% | FNMA 448% · FMCC 399% · ACT 167% |
| Specialized Finance | 3 | 8.4% | 31.0% | -20.6% | HASI -21% · CACC -28% |
| Transaction & Payment Processing Services | 17 | 15.8% | 17.6% | -22.2% | V 111% · MA 106% · CPAY 69% |
| Mortgage REITs | 35 | -19.0% | -7.6% | -35.2% | RITM 35% · DX 18% · AGNC 11% |
| Diversified Capital Markets | 20 | -58.1% | 2.5% | -68.4% | LPLA 80% · TW 39% · WULF -60% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 275.52 |
| Mkt Cap | 26.8 |
| Rev LTM | 8,544 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,562 |
| FCF LTM | 1,743 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,437 |
| CFO LTM | 1,984 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,674 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 14.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.4% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 9.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 12.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 24.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 24.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.7% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk Capital | 11,290 | 10,517 | 9,524 | 8,905 | |
| Human Capital | 5,907 | 5,209 | 3,864 | 3,591 | |
| Corporate/Eliminations | -16 | -28 | -12 | -17 | -19 |
| Commercial Risk Solutions | 6,635 | ||||
| Health Solutions | 2,154 | ||||
| Reinsurance Solutions | 1,997 | ||||
| Wealth Solutions | 1,426 | ||||
| Total | 17,181 | 15,698 | 13,376 | 12,479 | 12,193 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk Capital | 3,436 | 3,292 | 2,946 | 2,895 | 1,587 |
| Human Capital | 1,410 | 1,143 | 1,097 | 961 | 557 |
| Corporate/Eliminations | -502 | -600 | -258 | -187 | |
| Unallocated expenses | -238 | ||||
| Total | 4,344 | 3,835 | 3,785 | 3,669 | 1,906 |
| $ Mil | 2009 | 2008 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk and Insurance Brokerage Services | 14,570 | 14,285 | 12,869 | 12,566 | 13,235 |
| Unallocated | 8,020 | ||||
| Consulting | 368 | 379 | 348 | 319 | 333 |
| Insurance Underwriting | 3,327 | 7,233 | 7,122 | ||
| Corporate | 7,700 | ||||
| Total | 22,958 | 14,664 | 16,544 | 27,818 | 20,690 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $333.38 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 70.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/07/1984 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -12.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $300.91 | $324.02 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 10.8% | 2.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 33.8% | 28.9% |
| Downside Capture | 47.21 | -14.34 |
| Upside Capture | 11.36 | -9.23 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | -9.9% | -12.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.64 | -0.44 | -0.25 | -0.57 | -0.28 | 0.21 |
| Up Beta | -6.66 | -3.46 | -1.53 | -1.33 | -0.59 | 0.25 |
| Down Beta | -0.79 | -1.13 | -1.13 | -0.56 | -0.24 | 0.28 |
| Up Capture | 107% | 20% | 4% | -22% | -11% | 3% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 20 | 28 | 57 | 123 | 388 |
| Down Capture | -139% | 19% | 73% | -54% | -29% | 31% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 23 | 36 | 69 | 127 | 363 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AON | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AON | 2.8% | 28.9% | 0.09 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 11.6% | 14.6% | 0.52 | 41.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.6% | 12.8% | 0.57 | -12.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | -2.3% | 28.6% | -0.09 | -18.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 43.1% | 20.9% | 1.60 | -12.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.0% | 13.7% | 0.50 | 26.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -28.8% | 43.6% | -0.66 | -1.6% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AON | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AON | 1.7% | 24.0% | 0.03 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 9.0% | 18.3% | 0.35 | 50.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.0% | 17.1% | 0.52 | 36.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 16.5% | 19.0% | 0.69 | -4.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 19.6% | 0.31 | -1.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.1% | 18.9% | -0.05 | 42.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.1% | 51.6% | 0.26 | 14.5% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AON | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AON | 8.4% | 24.8% | 0.49 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 13.4% | 22.1% | 0.55 | 50.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 42.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.6% | 16.5% | 0.57 | -0.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.8% | 18.1% | 0.34 | 4.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 44.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.7% | 66.3% | 1.01 | 15.3% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/1/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/28/2026 | 4.4% | ||
| 7/29/2026 | -1.1% | -6.2% | -6.9% |
| 5/1/2026 | 0.2% | 0.9% | 3.1% |
| 1/30/2026 | 2.0% | 0.3% | -1.3% |
| 10/31/2025 | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.6% |
| 7/25/2025 | 4.6% | -0.3% | 5.4% |
| 4/25/2025 | -8.0% | -3.5% | -2.1% |
| 1/31/2025 | -0.4% | 3.6% | 10.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 11 | 13 |
| # Negative | 13 | 12 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 4.6% | 3.6% | 6.1% |
| Median Negative | -2.5% | -3.5% | -6.0% |
| Max Positive | 8.0% | 10.2% | 12.9% |
| Max Negative | -9.3% | -9.7% | -11.3% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/28/2026 | 4.4% | ||
| 7/29/2026 | -1.1% | -6.2% | -6.9% |
| 5/1/2026 | 0.2% | 0.9% | 3.1% |
| 1/30/2026 | 2.0% | 0.3% | -1.3% |
| 10/31/2025 | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.6% |
| 7/25/2025 | 4.6% | -0.3% | 5.4% |
| 4/25/2025 | -8.0% | -3.5% | -2.1% |
| 1/31/2025 | -0.4% | 3.6% | 10.2% |
| 10/25/2024 | 5.2% | 2.8% | 8.4% |
| 7/26/2024 | 8.0% | 9.9% | 12.9% |
| 4/26/2024 | -6.9% | -8.2% | -8.0% |
| 2/2/2024 | -2.5% | 2.4% | 5.3% |
| 10/27/2023 | -4.0% | 0.7% | 2.7% |
| 7/28/2023 | -5.1% | -5.7% | -1.3% |
| 4/28/2023 | -2.1% | -3.5% | -6.5% |
| 2/3/2023 | -2.9% | -1.7% | -5.5% |
| 10/28/2022 | 2.4% | -1.9% | 8.3% |
| 7/29/2022 | -0.4% | -2.2% | -2.2% |
| 4/29/2022 | -9.3% | -9.7% | -11.3% |
| 2/4/2022 | 5.4% | 3.9% | 4.3% |
| 10/29/2021 | -0.2% | -9.5% | -7.4% |
| 7/30/2021 | -1.2% | -0.3% | 8.3% |
| 4/30/2021 | 5.3% | 7.5% | 6.1% |
| 2/5/2021 | 7.3% | 10.2% | 10.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 11 | 13 |
| # Negative | 13 | 12 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 4.6% | 3.6% | 6.1% |
| Median Negative | -2.5% | -3.5% | -6.0% |
| Max Positive | 8.0% | 10.2% | 12.9% |
| Max Negative | -9.3% | -9.7% | -11.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/18/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/16/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/17/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/18/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/16/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/17/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/18/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/30/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/30/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/19/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/31/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/01/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/14/2020 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/29/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 10/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Foreign Currency Impact on Adjusted EPS | Reported | 0.42 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.42 for 2026 | |||
| 2028 Leverage Ratio | Reported | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3 | ||||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Adjusted EPS Impact | Reported | 0 | ||||||
| 2026 Organic Revenue Growth | Reported | 5.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Operating Margin Expansion | Reported | 0.7% | 0.75% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.75% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Adjusted EPS Impact | Reported | 0.42 | -4.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 0.44 for 2026 | |||
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/1/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Organic Revenue Growth | Reported | 5.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Operating Margin Expansion | Reported | 0.7% | 0.75% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.75% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Adjusted EPS Impact (Foreign Currency) | Reported | 0.44 | 12.8% | Raised | Guidance: 0.39 for 2026 | |||
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EPS Impact (Foreign Currency) | Reported | 0 | ||||||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Organic Revenue Growth | Reported | 5.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Adjusted Operating Margin Expansion | Reported | 0.7% | 0.75% | 0.8% | ||||
| 2026 Foreign Currency Impact on EPS | Reported | 0.39 | ||||||
| Q1 2026 Foreign Currency Impact on EPS | Reported | 0.36 | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 9/3/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Knight, Lester B | Family Partnership | Buy | 9032026 | 327.48 | 20,000 | 6,549,688 | 53,379,960 | Form | |
| 2 | Zeidel, Darren | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 7302026 | 377.76 | 1,900 | 717,750 | 4,345,825 | Form |
| 3 | Zeidel, Darren | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 7212026 | 372.05 | 1,950 | 725,500 | 4,987,012 | Form |
| 4 | Zeidel, Darren | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 7092026 | 360.00 | 600 | 216,000 | 5,527,476 | Form |
| 5 | Zeidel, Darren | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 3022026 | 329.72 | 4,300 | 1,417,784 | 5,260,339 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Knight, Lester B | Family Partnership | Buy | 9032026 | 327.48 | 20,000 | 6,549,688 | 53,379,960 | Form | |
| 2 | Zeidel, Darren | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 7302026 | 377.76 | 1,900 | 717,750 | 4,345,825 | Form |
| 3 | Zeidel, Darren | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 7212026 | 372.05 | 1,950 | 725,500 | 4,987,012 | Form |
| 4 | Zeidel, Darren | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 7092026 | 360.00 | 600 | 216,000 | 5,527,476 | Form |
| 5 | Zeidel, Darren | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 3022026 | 329.72 | 4,300 | 1,417,784 | 5,260,339 | Form |
| 6 | Zeidel, Darren | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 325.79 | 5,040 | 1,641,982 | 6,598,583 | Form |
| 7 | Knight, Lester B | Family Partnership | Buy | 2122026 | 319.24 | 4,000 | 1,276,956 | 45,651,191 | Form | |
| 8 | Zeidel, Darren | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 11072025 | 344.52 | 8,800 | 3,031,818 | 6,977,717 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 3, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LFL Advisers, LLC | $40.9 Mil | 12.3% | 9 | ADD +36.7% | 13F |
| BloombergSen Inc. | $82.0 Mil | 9.2% | 27 | Hold | 13F |
| Meritage Group LP | $219.5 Mil | 8.3% | 13 | New | 13F |
| GFI Investment Counsel Ltd. | $50.8 Mil | 6.9% | 24 | New | 13F |
| Cryder Capital Partners LLP | $103.8 Mil | 6.8% | 10 | ADD +9.0% | 13F |
| Independent Franchise Partners LLP | $835.4 Mil | 5.8% | 26 | ADD +22.3% | 13F |
| Broad Run Investment Management, LLC | $32.7 Mil | 5.7% | 24 | TRIM -5.1% | 13F |
| Petrus Trust Company, LTA | $49.5 Mil | 5.4% | 27 | ADD +6.5% | 13F |
| Bowie Capital Management, LLC | $104.0 Mil | 4.9% | 29 | TRIM -6.4% | 13F |
| Weitz Investment Management, Inc. | $69.0 Mil | 4.8% | 49 | Hold | 13F |
| Longview Partners (Guernsey) LTD | $315.1 Mil | 4.5% | 25 | TRIM -11.7% | 13F |
| Ycg, LLC | $47.5 Mil | 4.3% | 42 | Hold | 13F |
| Night Owl Capital Management, LLC | $35.3 Mil | 4.1% | 30 | Hold | 13F |
| M.D. Sass, LLC | $46.0 Mil | 3.5% | 36 | ADD +31.2% | 13F |
| Southpoint Capital Advisors LP | $161.4 Mil | 3.3% | 41 | TRIM -23.1% | 13F |
| Philadelphia Financial Management of San Francisco, LLC | $9.0 Mil | 2.9% | 42 | New | 13F |
| Central Securities Corp | $25.8 Mil | 2.1% | 30 | TRIM -20.0% | 13F |
| Haverford Financial Services, Inc. | $5.8 Mil | 1.7% | 46 | TRIM -18.9% | 13F |
| Eminence Capital, LP | $57.8 Mil | 1.3% | 33 | New | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meritage Group LP | $219.5 Mil | 8.3% | 13 | New | 13F |
| Eminence Capital, LP | $57.8 Mil | 1.3% | 33 | New | 13F |
| GFI Investment Counsel Ltd. | $50.8 Mil | 6.9% | 24 | New | 13F |
| Philadelphia Financial Management of San Francisco, LLC | $9.0 Mil | 2.9% | 42 | New | 13F |
| LFL Advisers, LLC | $40.9 Mil | 12.3% | 9 | ADD +36.7% | 13F |
| M.D. Sass, LLC | $46.0 Mil | 3.5% | 36 | ADD +31.2% | 13F |
| Independent Franchise Partners LLP | $835.4 Mil | 5.8% | 26 | ADD +22.3% | 13F |
| Cryder Capital Partners LLP | $103.8 Mil | 6.8% | 10 | ADD +9.0% | 13F |
| Petrus Trust Company, LTA | $49.5 Mil | 5.4% | 27 | ADD +6.5% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southpoint Capital Advisors LP | $161.4 Mil | 3.3% | 41 | TRIM -23.1% | 13F |
| Central Securities Corp | $25.8 Mil | 2.1% | 30 | TRIM -20.0% | 13F |
| Haverford Financial Services, Inc. | $5.8 Mil | 1.7% | 46 | TRIM -18.9% | 13F |
| Longview Partners (Guernsey) LTD | $315.1 Mil | 4.5% | 25 | TRIM -11.7% | 13F |
| Bowie Capital Management, LLC | $104.0 Mil | 4.9% | 29 | TRIM -6.4% | 13F |
| Broad Run Investment Management, LLC | $32.7 Mil | 5.7% | 24 | TRIM -5.1% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independent Franchise Partners LLP | $835.4 Mil | 5.8% | 26 | ADD +22.3% | 13F |
| Longview Partners (Guernsey) LTD | $315.1 Mil | 4.5% | 25 | TRIM -11.7% | 13F |
| Meritage Group LP | $219.5 Mil | 8.3% | 13 | New | 13F |
| Southpoint Capital Advisors LP | $161.4 Mil | 3.3% | 41 | TRIM -23.1% | 13F |
| Bowie Capital Management, LLC | $104.0 Mil | 4.9% | 29 | TRIM -6.4% | 13F |
| Cryder Capital Partners LLP | $103.8 Mil | 6.8% | 10 | ADD +9.0% | 13F |
| BloombergSen Inc. | $82.0 Mil | 9.2% | 27 | Hold | 13F |
| Weitz Investment Management, Inc. | $69.0 Mil | 4.8% | 49 | Hold | 13F |
| Eminence Capital, LP | $57.8 Mil | 1.3% | 33 | New | 13F |
| GFI Investment Counsel Ltd. | $50.8 Mil | 6.9% | 24 | New | 13F |
| Petrus Trust Company, LTA | $49.5 Mil | 5.4% | 27 | ADD +6.5% | 13F |
| Ycg, LLC | $47.5 Mil | 4.3% | 42 | Hold | 13F |
| M.D. Sass, LLC | $46.0 Mil | 3.5% | 36 | ADD +31.2% | 13F |
| LFL Advisers, LLC | $40.9 Mil | 12.3% | 9 | ADD +36.7% | 13F |
| Night Owl Capital Management, LLC | $35.3 Mil | 4.1% | 30 | Hold | 13F |
| Broad Run Investment Management, LLC | $32.7 Mil | 5.7% | 24 | TRIM -5.1% | 13F |
| Central Securities Corp | $25.8 Mil | 2.1% | 30 | TRIM -20.0% | 13F |
| Philadelphia Financial Management of San Francisco, LLC | $9.0 Mil | 2.9% | 42 | New | 13F |
| Haverford Financial Services, Inc. | $5.8 Mil | 1.7% | 46 | TRIM -18.9% | 13F |
AON Trade Sentinel
High Conviction
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is high as Aon demonstrates accelerating underlying demand, with organic growth reaching 6% in the latest quarter. This is powered by a superior operating model, evidenced by a 28.6% margin that leads peers. With a strong execution track record, the company is positioned to integrate its large acquisition and compound capital effectively.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Professional Services & Advisory(Number of Clients) x (Engagements per Client) x (Value per Engagement) Operating leverage from the Aon Business Services (ABS) platform, which uses standardization, automation, and AI to lower the unit cost of service delivery and enable higher-value, margin-accretive advisory work.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests its scale and data analytics are driving share gains and margin expansion independent of the insurance cycle.
- Organic revenue growth accelerated to 6% in Q3 2026, the highest of the year.
- New business contributed 11 percentage points to organic growth in Q3.
- TTM operating margin of 28.6% is well above that of peer Willis Towers Watson.
- Company guides for 70 to 80 basis points of margin expansion in 2026.
- Client retention remains strong in the mid-nineties.
PRIMARY RISK
The USI acquisition, set to close in Q4 2026, introduces significant execution risk. A failure to realize targeted synergies could distract management and destroy shareholder value.
- The acquisition is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2026.
- Management has a stated plan to deleverage over approximately 24 months post-close.
- The U.S. middle market is a highly competitive and fragmented environment.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Organic Revenue Growth | 6% for Q3 2026 - Accelerating | The year-over-year growth rate accelerated in the most recent quarter after two stable quarters at 5%, indicating strengthening top-line momentum driven by broad-based strength across its solution lines. |
| Adjusted Operating Margin Expansion | 70 basis points of year-over-year expansion in Q3 2026, reaching an absolute margin of 27.0%. - Stable | The consistent 70 basis points of YoY expansion demonstrates disciplined execution on the company's restructuring program and operating leverage initiatives, delivering predictable profitability improvements. |
| New Business Contribution to Organic Growth | 11 points (Q3 2026) | Measures the effectiveness of sales efforts, including winning new clients and expanding wallet share with existing ones. |
| Client Retention | mid-nineties (Q3 2026) | Indicates client satisfaction and the stability of the recurring revenue base. |
| Revenue-Generating Headcount Growth | up 4% year to date (Q3 2026) | A leading indicator of future growth capacity and investment in the business. |
Structural Growth vs. Cyclical Headwinds & Integration Risk
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe the 6% organic growth, driven by new business wins, proves Aon's advisory model can outrun a soft reinsurance market. They see the USI deal as a well-executed expansion into a $40 billion market.
CORE TENSION
Can accelerating new business momentum (11 points of contribution) and platform efficiencies offset both a soft reinsurance market and the execution risk of a major acquisition?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls. Q3 results showed accelerating organic growth and strong new business wins despite management acknowledging the soft market, suggesting the structural story is currently winning.
BEAR VIEW
Bears argue that softening reinsurance pricing will eventually bite, and that the complexity of integrating the massive USI acquisition will cause operational stumbles and a failure to deliver on promised synergies.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
2026 representing the final year of our restructuring investment | Restructuring Program Concludes Watch: The company's three-year 'Accelerating Aon United Program' restructuring investment will conclude. |
November 13, 2026 | Quarterly Dividend Payment Watch: A quarterly cash dividend of $0.820 per share is payable to shareholders of record on November 2, 2026. |
January 1, 2027 | New CCO Appointment Effective Watch: Jane Drummond's appointment as Global Chief Commercial Officer becomes effective. |
1/25/2027 | Peer Brown & Brown Earnings Watch: Peer Brown & Brown (BRO) is scheduled to report earnings. |
1/27/2027 | Peer Arthur J. Gallagher Earnings Watch: Peer Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) is scheduled to report earnings. |
1/28/2027 | USI Integration Execution Risk Watch: Management commentary on synergy realization, signs of operational disruption, or unexpected integration costs in the Q4 earnings report. |
1/28/2027 | Reinsurance Pricing Headwinds Watch: Organic growth in the Reinsurance Solutions segment and management commentary on the balance between pricing pressure and new business. |
No set date | Vesttoo Litigation Developments Watch: Court filings, regulatory updates, or news regarding a potential settlement or judgment that could exceed the existing provision. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-10-28 | Reported Q3 Financial Results Details: Aon reported third-quarter results including 3% total revenue growth and 6% organic revenue growth, with a positive stock reaction of 6.0%. | +6.3% $302.50 -> $321.64 |
2026-09-28 | Launched Power Lifecycle Program Details: Aon launched its Power Lifecycle Program, a new insurance solution offering coverage for conventional gas power projects. | -0.8% $277.99 -> $275.90 |
2026-08-31 | Announced Acquisition of USI Details: Aon announced a definitive agreement to acquire USI for a total purchase price of $17.0 billion to expand its U.S. middle-market platform. | -8.2% $355.40 -> $326.30 |
2026-07-29 | Negative Q2 Earnings Reaction Details: The stock had a two-day reaction of -4.0% around the Q2 earnings call, while the S&P 500 was unchanged. | -3.9% $380.39 -> $365.74 |
2026-07-20 | Data Center Program Expanded Details: Aon expanded its Data Center Lifecycle Insurance Program, increasing capacity to $5 billion to support digital infrastructure assets. | -2.1% $366.37 -> $358.58 |
2026-05-13 | Claims Copilot Expanded Globally Details: The company announced the global expansion of Aon Claims Copilot, integrating claims data and analytics into a single platform. | -0.3% $315.63 -> $314.69 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: AON trades at roughly 33% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 10% for the S&P 500 (3.2x the market). A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
AJG - Arthur J. Gallagher & Company
Acquisitive Growth PlayArthur J. Gallagher offers a more aggressive, acquisition-fueled growth profile, with trailing-twelve-month revenue growth of 26.3%. This contrasts with Aon's focus on organic growth and margin expansion.
WTW - Willis Towers Watson
Margin Improvement StoryWillis Towers Watson provides exposure to a similar business model but with a greater runway for margin improvement. Its recent 150 basis points of margin expansion outpaced Aon's, though its absolute margin is lower.
Aon is an advisory and solutions platform leveraging proprietary data and analytics to decouple its growth from insurance pricing cycles by solving complex, interconnected client problems.
Aon is transforming from a traditional broker into a data-driven professional services firm. Its 'Aon United' strategy and 'Aon Business Services' (ABS) platform are central to this, enabling the delivery of integrated risk and human capital solutions. This model allows Aon to create new markets, such as for data center risk, and attract new forms of capital, making it more resilient to insurance market softness. The pending acquisition of USI represents a major strategic push to establish a premier platform in the U.S. middle market.
Sustained mid-single-digit or higher organic revenue growth despite softening reinsurance rates, continued margin expansion from ABS operating leverage, and successful integration of USI leading to market share gains.
A return to growth that is highly correlated with insurance pricing cycles, failure to achieve synergies from the USI acquisition, or an inability to scale the ABS platform profitably.
Quarterly volatility in specific sub-segments like M&A services, which management has noted can be lumpy depending on deal closings.
Repricing Catalyst
The successful closing of the USI acquisition, expected in Q4 2026, and subsequent evidence of successful integration and synergy capture, which would validate the company's strategy to dominate the U.S. middle market.
Risk Capital
$11.7B TTM (67% of Total) · 31% MarginWhat It Is
This segment provides commercial risk solutions (insurance brokerage, risk consulting, captives management) and reinsurance solutions (treaty, facultative, capital markets advisory) to a diverse client base across all market segments and industries.
Who Pays & How
Clients pay for risk management strategies, insurance program design, and access to global insurance and reinsurance capital. Insurers and reinsurers also pay for services. Clients choose Aon for its extensive data and analytics capabilities, which help them make better decisions on retaining or transferring risk.
Competition
Human Capital
$5.9B TTM (33% of Total) · 26% MarginWhat It Is
This segment provides Health Solutions (consulting, brokerage, consumer benefits, talent advisory) and Wealth Solutions (retirement consulting, pension administration, investment consulting) to employers, including multinational companies.
Who Pays & How
Employers pay for customized strategies to manage health and benefits risks, drive employee engagement, and oversee retirement and investment programs. They choose Aon for its world-class analytics, technology platforms, and advice on navigating global regulatory requirements.
Competition
Aon — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Insurance Brokers Resources |
| Insurance Business America |
| A.M. Best |
| National Underwriter |
| Insurance News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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