Aon (AON)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $344.58 | Market Cap: $74.3 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Insurance Brokers
Aon (AON)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $344.58Market Cap: $74.3 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Insurance Brokers
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, Digital Health & Telemedicine, Aging Population & Chronic Disease, AI in Financial Services, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, Digital Health & Telemedicine, Aging Population & Chronic Disease, AI in Financial Services, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AON Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points that may explain a negative movement in Aon's stock price during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Bearish Trend and Moving Averages: Aon's stock exhibited a bearish trend in 2025, consistently trading below its 200-day moving average since April and its 50-day moving average since mid-September, indicating ongoing downward pressure.
2. Revenue Miss in Q4 2024: Although adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter of 2024 surpassed expectations, the total revenue of $4.15 billion fell short of analyst estimates of $4.21 billion when reported on January 31, 2025. This could have contributed to negative investor sentiment carrying into the subsequent quarters of 2025.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AON Return | - | 43% | 1% | -2% | 24% | -3% | 70% |
| Peers Return | -1% | 45% | 11% | 10% | 23% | 1% | 118% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AON Win Rate | 62% | 67% | 42% | 50% | 75% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 67% | 57% | 62% | 65% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AON Max Drawdown | - | -4% | -17% | -5% | -5% | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -46% | -4% | -12% | -16% | -1% | -10% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MMC, AJG, MET, AIG, HIG. See AON Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AON | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 327 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -16.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 94 days | 148 days |
Compare to MMC, AJG, MET, AIG, HIG
In The Past
Aon's stock fell -25.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/11/2022. A -25.5% loss requires a 34.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Aon Earnings Notes | |||
| How Low Can Aon Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| Aon vs Apollo Asset Management: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Better Bet Than AON Stock: Pay Less Than Aon To Get More From MU, VST | |||
| Better Bet Than AON Stock: Pay Less Than Aon To Get More From SNEX | |||
| Aon Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 25.2% in 2024 and 7.7% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average) | |||
| Aon (AON) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Aon (AON) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Aon (AON) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Aon (AON) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| How Will Aon Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings? | October 30th, 2025 | ||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | October 30th, 2025 | ||
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | October 29th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AON. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| 04302022 | AON | Aon | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.6% | 13.8% | -13.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| 04302022 | AON | Aon | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.6% | 13.8% | -13.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Aon
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Growth & Margins
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Valuation
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Returns
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Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk Capital | 9,524 | ||||
| Human Capital | 3,864 | ||||
| Corporate/Eliminations | -12 | -17 | -19 | -17 | -14 |
| Commercial Risk Solutions | 6,715 | 6,635 | 5,861 | 4,673 | |
| Health Solutions | 2,224 | 2,154 | 2,067 | 1,667 | |
| Reinsurance Solutions | 2,190 | 1,997 | 1,814 | 1,686 | |
| Wealth Solutions | 1,367 | 1,426 | 1,341 | ||
| Data and Analytic Services | 1,184 | ||||
| Retirement Solutions | 1,817 | ||||
| Total | 13,376 | 12,479 | 12,193 | 11,066 | 11,013 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk Capital | 2,946 | ||||
| Human Capital | 1,097 | ||||
| Corporate/Eliminations | -258 | ||||
| Total | 3,785 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10312025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7252025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4252025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2182025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10252024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7262024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4262024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2162024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10272023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7282023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4282023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2172023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10282022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7292022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2182022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Insurance Brokers Resources |
| Insurance Business America |
| A.M. Best |
| National Underwriter |
| Insurance News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |