Aon (AON)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $351.99 | Market Cap: $75.9 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Insurance Brokers
Aon (AON)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $351.99Market Cap: $75.9 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Insurance Brokers
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 3.3 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.0 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -51% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 23x |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% | Key risksAON key risks include [1] cyberattacks and data breaches that could compromise its brand as a trusted manager of sensitive client information and [2] a failure to attract and retain the top talent that is the foundation of its professional services model. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, Digital Health & Telemedicine, Aging Population & Chronic Disease, AI in Financial Services, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 3.3 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.0 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, Digital Health & Telemedicine, Aging Population & Chronic Disease, AI in Financial Services, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -51% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 23x |
| Key risksAON key risks include [1] cyberattacks and data breaches that could compromise its brand as a trusted manager of sensitive client information and [2] a failure to attract and retain the top talent that is the foundation of its professional services model. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AON Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points highlighting potential reasons for Aon's stock movement from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. Analyst Downgrade and Price Target Adjustment. Barclays downgraded Aon's rating on November 20, 2025, and adjusted its price target from $420.00 to $379.00. This downgrade could have contributed to negative investor sentiment and selling pressure.
2. Overall Negative Year-to-Date Performance. Despite a positive bounce following strong Q3 2025 earnings reported on October 31, 2025, Aon's stock was noted to be down by similar percentages (e.g., 3.7% for the year as of November 6, 2025, and 3.8% year-to-date as of October 23, 2025). This suggests that broader market trends or other factors might have offset the positive Q3 impact, leading to a net negative movement over the specified period.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AON Return | � | 43% | 1% | -2% | 24% | -1% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | -0% | 13% | 34% | -10% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AON Win Rate | 62% | 67% | 42% | 50% | 75% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 75% | 43% | 53% | 72% | 57% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AON Max Drawdown | � | -4% | -17% | -5% | -5% | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -18% | -10% | -1% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MMC, WTW, AJG, BRO, RYAN. See AON Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AON | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 327 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -16.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 94 days | 148 days |
Compare to MMC, AJG, MET, AIG, HIG
In The Past
Aon's stock fell -25.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/11/2022. A -25.5% loss requires a 34.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Aon Earnings Notes | |||
| How Low Can Aon Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| Aon vs Apollo Asset Management: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Better Bet Than AON Stock: Pay Less Than Aon To Get More From MU, VST | |||
| Better Bet Than AON Stock: Pay Less Than Aon To Get More From SNEX | |||
| Aon Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 25.2% in 2024 and 7.6% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average) | |||
| Aon (AON) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Aon (AON) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Aon (AON) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Aon (AON) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| How Will Aon Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings? | October 30th, 2025 | ||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | October 30th, 2025 | ||
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | October 29th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AON. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.4% | -2.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -11.0% |
| 04302022 | AON | Aon | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.6% | 13.8% | -13.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.4% | -2.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -11.0% |
| 04302022 | AON | Aon | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.6% | 13.8% | -13.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Aon
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 218.63 |
| Mkt Cap | 54.1 |
| Rev LTM | 11,418 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,682 |
| FCF LTM | 1,574 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,574 |
| CFO LTM | 1,760 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,773 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 14.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 23.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 23.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 54.1 |
| P/S | 4.1 |
| P/EBIT | 15.3 |
| P/E | 29.7 |
| P/CFO | 21.9 |
| Total Yield | 4.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.1% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -16.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -10.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 36.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -28.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -22.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -34.8% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk Capital | 9,524 | ||||
| Human Capital | 3,864 | ||||
| Corporate/Eliminations | -12 | -17 | -19 | -17 | -14 |
| Commercial Risk Solutions | 6,715 | 6,635 | 5,861 | 4,673 | |
| Health Solutions | 2,224 | 2,154 | 2,067 | 1,667 | |
| Reinsurance Solutions | 2,190 | 1,997 | 1,814 | 1,686 | |
| Wealth Solutions | 1,367 | 1,426 | 1,341 | ||
| Data and Analytic Services | 1,184 | ||||
| Retirement Solutions | 1,817 | ||||
| Total | 13,376 | 12,479 | 12,193 | 11,066 | 11,013 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk Capital | 2,946 | ||||
| Human Capital | 1,097 | ||||
| Corporate/Eliminations | -258 | ||||
| Total | 3,785 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/31/2025 | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.3% |
| 7/25/2025 | 4.6% | -0.3% | 5.4% |
| 4/25/2025 | -8.0% | -3.5% | -2.1% |
| 1/31/2025 | -0.4% | 3.6% | 10.2% |
| 10/25/2024 | 5.2% | 2.8% | 8.4% |
| 7/26/2024 | 8.0% | 9.9% | 12.9% |
| 4/26/2024 | -6.9% | -8.2% | -8.0% |
| 2/2/2024 | -2.5% | 2.4% | 5.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 10 | 14 |
| # Negative | 15 | 14 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 5.2% | 3.7% | 8.3% |
| Median Negative | -2.3% | -3.5% | -5.5% |
| Max Positive | 8.0% | 10.2% | 13.6% |
| Max Negative | -9.3% | -9.7% | -11.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10312025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7252025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4252025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2182025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10252024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7262024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4262024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2162024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10272023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7282023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4282023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2172023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10282022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7292022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2182022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Insurance Brokers Resources |
| Insurance Business America |
| A.M. Best |
| National Underwriter |
| Insurance News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |