Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 3.3 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.0 Bil
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -51%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 23x
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 22%
  Key risks
AON key risks include [1] cyberattacks and data breaches that could compromise its brand as a trusted manager of sensitive client information and [2] a failure to attract and retain the top talent that is the foundation of its professional services model.
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cybersecurity, Digital Health & Telemedicine, Aging Population & Chronic Disease, AI in Financial Services, Show more.
  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 3.3 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.0 Bil
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 22%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cybersecurity, Digital Health & Telemedicine, Aging Population & Chronic Disease, AI in Financial Services, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -51%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 23x
5 Key risks
AON key risks include [1] cyberattacks and data breaches that could compromise its brand as a trusted manager of sensitive client information and [2] a failure to attract and retain the top talent that is the foundation of its professional services model.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AON Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are key points highlighting potential reasons for Aon's stock movement from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:

1. Analyst Downgrade and Price Target Adjustment. Barclays downgraded Aon's rating on November 20, 2025, and adjusted its price target from $420.00 to $379.00. This downgrade could have contributed to negative investor sentiment and selling pressure.

2. Overall Negative Year-to-Date Performance. Despite a positive bounce following strong Q3 2025 earnings reported on October 31, 2025, Aon's stock was noted to be down by similar percentages (e.g., 3.7% for the year as of November 6, 2025, and 3.8% year-to-date as of October 23, 2025). This suggests that broader market trends or other factors might have offset the positive Q3 impact, leading to a net negative movement over the specified period.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AON Return43%1%-2%24%-1%
Peers Return-0%13%34%-10%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AON Win Rate62%67%42%50%75%42% 
Peers Win Rate75%43%53%72%57% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AON Max Drawdown-4%-17%-5%-5%-8% 
Peers Max Drawdown-18%-10%-1%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MMC, WTW, AJG, BRO, RYAN. See AON Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAONS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-25.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven34.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven327 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-16.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven19.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven94 days148 days

Compare to MMC, AJG, MET, AIG, HIG


In The Past

Aon's stock fell -25.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/11/2022. A -25.5% loss requires a 34.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Aon (AON)

Better Bets than Aon (AON)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AON. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.1%5.1%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.4%-2.4%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.6%4.6%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.0%-9.0%-11.0%
AON_4302022_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%04302022AONAonQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.6%13.8%-13.7%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.1%5.1%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.4%-2.4%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.6%4.6%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.0%-9.0%-11.0%
AON_4302022_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%04302022AONAonQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.6%13.8%-13.7%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Aon

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AONMMCWTWAJGBRORYANMedian
NameAon Marsh & .Willis T.Arthur J.Brown & .Ryan Spe. 
Mkt Price352.03186.36329.84250.9080.6253.07218.63
Mkt Cap75.991.532.379.526.76.854.1
Rev LTM17,02826,4539,80713,0305,3442,96311,418
Op Inc LTM4,4546,1462,2682,6821,471-2,682
FCF LTM3,0404,8251,3811,7671,2995721,574
FCF 3Y Avg2,9564,0571,1761,9721,0844761,574
CFO LTM3,2845,0871,6031,9161,3676401,760
CFO 3Y Avg3,1994,3981,4122,1331,1575191,773

Growth & Margins

AONMMCWTWAJGBRORYANMedian
NameAon Marsh & .Willis T.Arthur J.Brown & .Ryan Spe. 
Rev Chg LTM14.1%10.5%-0.0%15.6%17.4%24.3%14.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg11.1%8.3%3.5%15.3%16.3%21.1%13.2%
Rev Chg Q7.4%11.5%-0.0%19.9%34.2%24.8%15.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.6%2.5%-0.0%4.5%8.0%5.3%3.5%
Op Mgn LTM26.2%23.2%23.1%20.6%27.5%-23.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg27.1%23.1%21.0%19.5%28.0%-23.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.5%-0.3%0.6%-0.5%-1.2%--0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM19.3%19.2%16.3%14.7%25.6%21.6%19.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg21.5%18.1%14.6%19.1%24.8%21.3%20.2%
FCF/Rev LTM17.9%18.2%14.1%13.6%24.3%19.3%18.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg19.9%16.7%12.2%17.7%23.2%19.6%18.6%

Valuation

AONMMCWTWAJGBRORYANMedian
NameAon Marsh & .Willis T.Arthur J.Brown & .Ryan Spe. 
Mkt Cap75.991.532.379.526.76.854.1
P/S4.53.73.56.15.82.44.1
P/EBIT18.015.311.4-19.713.515.3
P/E28.324.016.049.631.1104.229.7
P/CFO23.419.521.141.522.711.321.9
Total Yield4.3%5.8%7.0%2.4%3.8%1.8%4.1%
Dividend Yield0.8%1.7%0.8%0.4%0.6%0.8%0.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg4.1%4.0%4.1%-4.1%6.9%4.1%
D/E0.20.20.2-0.30.50.2
Net D/E0.10.20.1-0.20.50.2

Returns

AONMMCWTWAJGBRORYANMedian
NameAon Marsh & .Willis T.Arthur J.Brown & .Ryan Spe. 
1M Rtn0.6%3.0%3.5%-3.0%-0.1%-6.2%0.2%
3M Rtn-1.5%-5.2%-0.5%-14.0%-12.4%-0.4%-3.3%
6M Rtn0.8%-12.3%11.5%-20.5%-25.3%-20.1%-16.2%
12M Rtn-1.1%-11.2%7.4%-10.5%-21.4%-18.3%-10.9%
3Y Rtn20.7%18.0%42.6%38.4%48.1%34.7%36.6%
1M Excs Rtn-0.2%2.3%2.8%-3.7%-0.8%-7.0%-0.5%
3M Excs Rtn-1.3%-5.9%-1.6%-16.6%-13.4%-1.2%-3.8%
6M Excs Rtn-11.6%-24.7%-0.9%-32.9%-37.7%-32.4%-28.6%
12M Excs Rtn-12.8%-23.0%-4.0%-22.1%-33.2%-32.0%-22.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-51.2%-55.8%-28.5%-35.3%-26.7%-34.2%-34.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Risk Capital9,524    
Human Capital3,864    
Corporate/Eliminations-12-17-19-17-14
Commercial Risk Solutions 6,7156,6355,8614,673
Health Solutions 2,2242,1542,0671,667
Reinsurance Solutions 2,1901,9971,8141,686
Wealth Solutions 1,3671,4261,341 
Data and Analytic Services    1,184
Retirement Solutions    1,817
Total13,37612,47912,19311,06611,013


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Risk Capital2,946    
Human Capital1,097    
Corporate/Eliminations-258    
Total3,785    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,036,005
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520255.1%
Average Daily Volume1,182,980
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.72
Basic Shares Quantity215,700,000
Short % of Basic Shares0.9%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/31/20253.8%3.6%5.3%
7/25/20254.6%-0.3%5.4%
4/25/2025-8.0%-3.5%-2.1%
1/31/2025-0.4%3.6%10.2%
10/25/20245.2%2.8%8.4%
7/26/20248.0%9.9%12.9%
4/26/2024-6.9%-8.2%-8.0%
2/2/2024-2.5%2.4%5.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive91014
# Negative151410
Median Positive5.2%3.7%8.3%
Median Negative-2.3%-3.5%-5.5%
Max Positive8.0%10.2%13.6%
Max Negative-9.3%-9.7%-11.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251031202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025725202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025425202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024218202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241025202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024726202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024426202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023216202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231027202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023728202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023428202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022217202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221028202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022729202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022429202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021218202210-K 12/31/2021