Aon (AON)
Market Price (9/14/2026): $302.69 | Market Cap: $64.5 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Insurance Brokers
Aon (AON)
Market Price (9/14/2026): $302.69Market Cap: $64.5 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Insurance Brokers
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.1%, FCF Yield is 5.0% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 3.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.2 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 4.7 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, Digital Health & Telemedicine, Aging Population & Chronic Disease, AI in Financial Services, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -53%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78% | Key risksAON key risks include [1] cyberattacks and data breaches that could compromise its brand as a trusted manager of sensitive client information and [2] a failure to attract and retain the top talent that is the foundation of its professional services model. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.1%, FCF Yield is 5.0% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 3.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.2 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 4.7 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, Digital Health & Telemedicine, Aging Population & Chronic Disease, AI in Financial Services, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -53%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78% |
| Key risksAON key risks include [1] cyberattacks and data breaches that could compromise its brand as a trusted manager of sensitive client information and [2] a failure to attract and retain the top talent that is the foundation of its professional services model. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Aon (AON) stock has lost about 5% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Aon's announcement of the approximately $17 billion acquisition of USI Insurance Services, largely financed through debt, caused a significant negative market reaction. The proposed acquisition, which is expected to close in fiscal Q4 2026, led to Aon's shares plunging 9.5% on August 31, 2026, as investors weighed the strategic growth opportunity against concerns regarding the substantial financial burden and execution risks associated with the transaction.
2. The company reported mixed results for fiscal Q2 2026 (period ending June 30, 2026). While Aon's diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.81 slightly exceeded analysts' consensus estimates of $3.80, the company's total revenue of $4.25 billion fell short of the estimated $4.28 billion. Additionally, diluted net income attributable to Aon shareholders decreased 3% to $2.58 per share compared to $2.66 per share in the prior-year period.
Show more
Aon (AON) stock has lost about 5% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Aon's announcement of the approximately $17 billion acquisition of USI Insurance Services, largely financed through debt, caused a significant negative market reaction. The proposed acquisition, which is expected to close in fiscal Q4 2026, led to Aon's shares plunging 9.5% on August 31, 2026, as investors weighed the strategic growth opportunity against concerns regarding the substantial financial burden and execution risks associated with the transaction.
2. The company reported mixed results for fiscal Q2 2026 (period ending June 30, 2026). While Aon's diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.81 slightly exceeded analysts' consensus estimates of $3.80, the company's total revenue of $4.25 billion fell short of the estimated $4.28 billion. Additionally, diluted net income attributable to Aon shareholders decreased 3% to $2.58 per share compared to $2.66 per share in the prior-year period.
3. Broader macroeconomic conditions and insurance industry trends contributed to a cautious investment environment. The overall market faced increased geopolitical uncertainty and economic volatility, with a Q2 2026 bulletin from the Central Bank of Ireland highlighting a deteriorating near-term economic outlook. Furthermore, a Q3 2026 Insurance Labor Market Study, released on August 25, 2026, indicated slower employee turnover and a modest projected increase of only 0.78% in insurance employment over the next 12 months, suggesting that many companies are hiring to backfill positions rather than for significant growth, reflecting a generally more cautious outlook for the sector.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -4.0% change in AON stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -3.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 315.34 | 302.69 | -4.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 17,486 | 17,577 | 0.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.5% | 22.3% | -1.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.1 | 16.5 | -3.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 214 | 213 | 0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -4.0% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AON | -4.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.0% | -22.2% |
| Sector (XLF) | 11.0% | 41.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -9.3% change in AON stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -15.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 333.83 | 302.69 | -9.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 17,181 | 17,577 | 2.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.5% | 22.3% | 3.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.5 | 16.5 | -15.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 215 | 213 | 1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -9.3% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AON | -9.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.7% | -14.7% |
| Sector (XLF) | 11.9% | 42.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -16.8% change in AON stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -45.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 363.63 | 302.69 | -16.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 16,752 | 17,577 | 4.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.5% | 22.3% | 43.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 30.2 | 16.5 | -45.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 216 | 213 | 1.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -16.8% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AON | -16.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.5% | -10.4% |
| Sector (XLF) | 7.3% | 38.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -6.9% change in AON stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -33.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 324.96 | 302.69 | -6.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 12,874 | 17,577 | 36.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.8% | 22.3% | 7.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.9 | 16.5 | -33.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 205 | 213 | -4.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -6.9% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AON | -6.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.7% | 16.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | 74.0% | 41.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AON Return | 43% | 1% | -2% | 24% | -1% | -12% | 53% |
| Peers Return | 26% | 7% | 17% | 36% | -14% | -13% | 60% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AON Win Rate | 67% | 42% | 50% | 75% | 42% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 48% | 48% | 67% | 48% | 33% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AON Max Drawdown | -12% | -25% | -16% | -17% | -20% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -20% | -23% | -18% | -15% | -31% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: WTW, AJG, BRO, RYAN, ERIE. See AON Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/11/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AON | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -10.4% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 305 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -11.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.4% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 21 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -14.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 427 days |
In The Past
Aon's stock fell 0.0% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 0.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
In The Past
Aon's stock fell 0.0% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 0.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Aon (AON)
Aon plc is a global professional services firm that helps organizations manage and mitigate risks, optimize retirement programs, and navigate health benefits. Operating worldwide, the company provides expert advice and solutions across three core areas: commercial risk, health, and wealth (retirement). Its comprehensive approach aims to empower clients to make better decisions and achieve their strategic objectives in an increasingly complex global environment.
Aon's services are diverse and specialized. Within commercial risk, it offers retail brokerage, cyber risk solutions, global risk consulting, and captive insurance management, alongside digital platforms like CoverWallet. For health, Aon provides health and benefits brokerage services and manages healthcare exchanges. In the reinsurance sector, the company advises on treaty and facultative reinsurance, insurance-linked securities, capital raising, strategic M&A, and corporate finance. Its wealth solutions include strategic consulting for retirement programs, actuarial services, risk management, and investment advice for a range of plan types.
The company primarily serves a broad spectrum of clients globally, including public and private corporations, as well as institutional entities. These clients rely on Aon's expertise to protect their assets, employees, and financial future. Aon's solutions are tailored for organizations seeking specialized guidance to address their most critical challenges in risk, human capital, and investments, ultimately fostering resilience and sustainable growth.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Aon is like a Deloitte or PwC, but dedicated to advising companies on their risk management, employee health plans, and retirement programs.
- Aon is like a major corporate law firm (such as Skadden Arps or Latham & Watkins), but focused on providing specialized solutions for companies' risk, health, and retirement challenges.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Commercial Risk Solutions: Provides retail brokerage, cyber, and global risk consulting services, alongside captives management to help clients manage commercial risks.
- Health Solutions: Offers health and benefits brokerage services and operates healthcare exchanges for client employees.
- Reinsurance Solutions: Delivers treaty and facultative reinsurance, insurance-linked securities, and advisory services for capital raising, restructuring, and M&A within the insurance sector.
- Wealth Solutions (Retirement & Investment): Offers strategic design, actuarial, and risk management consulting for retirement programs, plus advice on investment programs for various plan types.
- CoverWallet: A digital platform providing insurance solutions primarily to small and medium-sized businesses.
- Affinity Programs: Develops and manages specialized insurance programs for groups and organizations.
- Aon Inpoint: Provides advisory and consulting services specifically to insurance companies and reinsurers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Greg Case, President and Chief Executive Officer
Greg Case joined Aon in 2005. Before his tenure at Aon, he spent 17 years at McKinsey & Company, where he led the Global Insurance and Financial Services Practice and served on the Governing Shareholder Council. Prior to McKinsey, he worked for the investment banking firm Piper, Jaffray and Hopwood, as well as the Federal Reserve Bank. Case holds an MBA from Harvard Business School and has been recognized by the Harvard Business Review as one of the top 100 best-performing CEOs in the world multiple times.
Edmund Reese, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Edmund Reese was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Aon, effective July 29, 2024. He brings over 25 years of financial leadership experience from large public companies in the financial services, payments, and technology sectors. Before joining Aon, Reese served as CFO of Broadridge Financial Solutions since 2020. His previous experience includes roles at American Express, where he was Senior Vice President and CFO of its Global Consumer Services Group, and other financial leadership positions. He also held CFO roles at Merrill Lynch's U.S. Advisory Group and Citigroup Smith Barney's Corporate Client Group and Stock Plan Services. Reese earned an MBA from The Wharton School.
Lori Goltermann, Vice Chair
Lori Goltermann was elevated to serve as Vice Chair of Aon, effective March 31, 2026. She has been with Aon for over three decades, during which she has transformed the insurance and professional services industry. Prior to her current role, Goltermann served as Aon's CEO of Regions and North America and as CEO of the U.S. Commercial Risk and Health Solutions businesses. Her experience also includes leading the U.S. Health Solutions practice and the Private Equity Mergers & Acquisitions Practice within Aon.
Anne Corona, CEO of North America
Anne Corona was appointed CEO of North America, effective March 10, 2026. She has more than 25 years of experience at Aon, previously serving as CEO of Enterprise Clients and Global Chief Commercial Officer. Her earlier roles include CEO of Asia Pacific and president of Aon's Financial Services Group.
Farheen Dam, CEO of Enterprise Clients and Chief Client Officer
Farheen Dam was appointed CEO of Enterprise Clients and Chief Client Officer, effective March 10, 2026. She joined Aon in 2022 and possesses extensive leadership experience in healthcare and human capital. Before her current appointment, Dam served as the North America Health Solutions Leader for Aon, responsible for the growth, strategy, and execution of the Health and Benefits business.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Aon's business are:
- Cyber Attack or Data Breach: As a professional services firm heavily reliant on technology and data, Aon faces a significant and consistently top-ranked threat from cyber attacks and data breaches. This risk is not only a concern for Aon's own operations but also a primary challenge for its clients, directly impacting Aon's core business of providing risk management solutions.
- Geopolitical Volatility: Geopolitical instability has emerged as a major and increasingly interconnected risk, impacting global trade, supply chains, and regulatory environments, with tangible consequences for both Aon's clients and its own international operations. This dynamic environment requires Aon to adapt its services and strategies to navigate shifting alliances and potential disruptions.
- Intense Competition and Talent Retention: Aon operates in a highly competitive global market alongside major professional services firms such as Marsh & McLennan Companies and Willis Towers Watson. Maintaining market share requires continuous innovation and differentiation. Furthermore, attracting and retaining top talent is a critical and ongoing challenge for Aon, as human capital and specialized expertise are fundamental to delivering its professional services in risk, retirement, and health solutions, especially with evolving workforce dynamics and the integration of AI.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Aon plc (AON) operates in several large addressable markets globally, providing advice and solutions focused on risk, retirement, and health.
Commercial Risk Solutions
- Commercial Insurance: The global commercial insurance market was valued at approximately USD 1,030.91 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 2,166.15 billion by 2034. North America holds a significant share of this market.
- Cyber Insurance: The global cyber insurance market size was estimated at USD 26.25 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 223.47 billion by 2034. North America is the dominant region, accounting for 36.4% of the global market in 2025. Other estimates place the global market at USD 16 billion to USD 20 billion in 2025, with a forecast of USD 30 billion to USD 50 billion by 2030.
- Global Risk Consulting: The global market for risk management consulting services was estimated at USD 139.78 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 231.82 billion by 2032. Another report valued the global risk consulting market at approximately USD 125.4 billion by the end of 2025, with a projection to reach USD 224.315 billion by 2033. North America accounted for nearly 38% of global consulting engagements in 2024.
Health Solutions
- Health & Benefits Brokerages (Employee Benefits Consulting): The global employee benefits strategy and consulting market is valued at USD 4.6 billion in 2025 and is projected to more than double to USD 10.5 billion by 2035. Another source estimates the global benefits consulting service market to be approximately USD 3.86 billion in 2025, growing to about USD 6.98 billion by 2034. North America dominates this market, contributing 50% of the total adoption.
- Healthcare Exchanges (Health Insurance Exchange): The global health insurance exchange market was valued at approximately USD 2.7 trillion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 5.3 trillion by 2033. The market in North America holds the largest revenue share.
Reinsurance Solutions
- Reinsurance: The global reinsurance market size was valued at USD 621.39 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 1403.7 billion by 2034. Another estimate valued the global reinsurance market at USD 711.75 billion in 2024, expected to reach USD 2,000.08 billion by 2034. North America contributed over 44% of the revenue share in 2024.
Wealth Solutions
- Retirement Programs & Actuarial Services: The global actuarial services market was valued at USD 24.75 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 38.69 billion by 2035. The US actuarial services market leads globally, holding over 35% of the market share. The global retirement planning market was approximately USD 127.8 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 198.6 billion by 2032. In the U.S., total retirement plan assets under management among Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs) rose to USD 7.96 trillion in 2025.
- Investment Programs (Investment Consulting / Financial Consulting): The global investment consulting service market has a current valuation of USD 91.52 billion, projected to reach USD 158.52 billion by 2032. The broader global financial consulting market was valued at USD 200 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 400 billion by 2033.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Aon plc (symbol: AON) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market opportunities:
- Execution of the "Aon United" Strategy and Client-Centric Approach: Aon's overarching "Aon United" strategy is central to its growth. This approach focuses on addressing complex client needs at the intersection of Risk Capital and Human Capital, putting clients at the center of its service delivery and leveraging the firm's global capabilities to provide integrated solutions. This strategy is anticipated to drive sustainable, profitable growth.
- Sustainable Organic Revenue Growth driven by New Business and Client Retention: Aon consistently guides for mid-single-digit or greater organic revenue growth. This growth is largely fueled by winning new business, maintaining high client retention rates, and benefiting from positive market impacts across its core segments, including Commercial Risk, Reinsurance, Health, and Wealth Solutions.
- Strategic Investments and Expansion in High-Growth Solutions and Markets: The company is making strategic investments in areas identified for high growth. This includes leveraging opportunities in the data center market, which is seen as a "generational" and "robust and dynamic growth opportunity." Additionally, Aon is expanding its presence in specific geographic markets such as North America, EMEA, and Latin America, and focusing on the middle market, partly through contributions from acquisitions like NFP. Growth in specialized areas like insurance-linked securities and facultative placements within its Reinsurance Solutions segment also contributes to this expansion.
- Operational Leverage from Aon Business Services (ABS): While primarily aimed at driving efficiency and margin expansion, the Aon Business Services (ABS) platform is crucial for creating the capacity to fund growth investments. By standardizing operations and integrating platforms, ABS provides scale benefits and operating leverage, indirectly supporting future revenue growth by enabling further strategic initiatives and innovation.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- In February 2022, Aon authorized an additional $7.5 billion in share repurchases, increasing the total authorization to approximately $9.2 billion, including $1.7 billion remaining from an existing program as of December 31, 2021.
- Aon repurchased $3.5 billion worth of shares in 2021.
- The company returned $1.6 billion in capital to shareholders in 2025, with $1 billion allocated to share repurchases, and plans to repurchase at least $1 billion in shares in 2026.
Share Issuance
- In June 2025, shareholders approved an amendment to the Aon plc 2011 Incentive Plan, which increased the maximum number of Class A Ordinary Shares available for issuance under the plan by 3,800,000 shares.
Outbound Investments
- Aon agreed to acquire NFP, a middle-market provider of risk, benefits, wealth, and retirement plan advisory services, for $13.4 billion in December 2023, with the acquisition completed in April 2024.
- In November 2024, Aon acquired UK-based insurance broker Griffiths & Armour for $418 million (or $455 million), with the deal completing in January 2025, aimed at expanding its regional presence in the UK and Ireland.
- Aon divested a majority of NFP's wealth business for an estimated $2.7 billion (expected $2.2 billion after-tax cash proceeds) one year after acquiring NFP.
Capital Expenditures
- Aon reported capital expenditures of $137 million in 2021, $196 million in 2022, $252 million in 2023, $218 million in 2024, and $263 million in 2025.
- For 2026, capital expenditures are estimated to be $271.3 million.
- A significant focus of capital expenditures includes investments in risk solutions, particularly for data centers, which represent a generational growth opportunity.
Peer Outperformance in Insurance Brokers
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Investment Banking & Brokerage | 13 | 4.4% | 109.9% | 135.9% | IBKR 511% · SNEX 266% · GS 188% |
| Reinsurance | 6 | 18.8% | 73.7% | 132.8% | SPNT 164% · RGA 143% · RNR 133% |
| Diversified Banks | 12 | 37.8% | 127.6% | 118.3% | JPM 157% · CM 153% · RY 143% |
| Life & Health Insurance | 20 | 8.2% | 54.2% | 103.2% | JXN 569% · UNM 321% · FG 203% |
| Multi-Sector Holdings | 4 | 3.5% | 53.9% | 82.7% | JONE 361% · BRK-B 84% · VOYA 81% |
| Regional Banks | 265 | 26.8% | 84.7% | 68.7% | GCBC 366% · ESQ 361% · VBNK 332% |
| Property & Casualty Insurance | 42 | 9.4% | 68.6% | 68.2% | ASIC 2746900% · HRTG 471% · UVE 308% |
| Multi-line Insurance | 9 | 8.9% | 78.7% | 64.5% | GNW 193% · L 108% · SLF 91% |
| Consumer Finance | 30 | 5.7% | 87.6% | 33.8% | ENVA 603% · EZPW 379% · FCFS 180% |
| Financial Exchanges & Data | 15 | -6.5% | 11.8% | 30.5% | VIRT 201% · CBOE 142% · CME 80% |
| Diversified Financial Services | 4 | 0.9% | 14.0% | 24.1% | FRHC 174% · EQH 106% · TMS -58% |
| Insurance Brokers ← | 16 | -17.9% | -3.8% | 20.4% | LIFE 347% · ARX 89% · AJG 75% |
| Asset Management & Custody Banks | 83 | -10.8% | 13.7% | 14.4% | WT 340% · SII 291% · VCTR 280% |
| Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance | 12 | -48.2% | 28.3% | 2.8% | FNMA 488% · FMCC 458% · ESNT 70% |
| Specialized Finance | 3 | 27.4% | 39.8% | -0.4% | EFC 30% · CACC 0% · HASI -13% |
| Mortgage REITs | 33 | -13.2% | 8.4% | -15.4% | NREF 55% · RITM 48% · DX 37% |
| Transaction & Payment Processing Services | 15 | 2.2% | -8.7% | -41.9% | V 73% · MA 70% · CPAY 60% |
| Diversified Capital Markets | 21 | -33.6% | 2.7% | -43.9% | OPY 215% · LPLA 153% · GOLD 103% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Aon Earnings Notes | 12/25/2025 | |
| How Low Can Aon Stock Really Go? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Better Bet Than AON Stock: Pay Less Than Aon To Get More From MU, VST | 08/12/2025 | |
| Better Bet Than AON Stock: Pay Less Than Aon To Get More From SNEX | 08/12/2025 | |
| Aon Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 25.2% in 2024 and 7.6% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average) | 03/07/2025 | |
| Aon (AON) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 02/17/2025 | |
| Aon (AON) Net Income Comparison | 02/15/2025 | |
| Aon (AON) Operating Income Comparison | 02/14/2025 | |
| Aon (AON) Revenue Comparison | 02/13/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| S&P 500 Movers | Winners: CRWD, TSLA, SNDK | Losers: EIX, PCG, AON | 09/02/2026 | |
| S&P 500 Movers | Winners: MRSH, APA, AON | Losers: SMCI, VST, CEG | 03/21/2026 | |
| How Will Aon Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings? | 10/30/2025 | |
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | 10/30/2025 | |
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | 10/29/2025 |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 242.68 |
| Mkt Cap | 25.7 |
| Rev LTM | 8,383 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,530 |
| FCF LTM | 1,689 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,322 |
| CFO LTM | 1,923 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,559 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 15.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 10.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 13.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 24.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 24.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.6% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk Capital | 11,290 | 10,517 | 9,524 | 8,905 | |
| Human Capital | 5,907 | 5,209 | 3,864 | 3,591 | |
| Corporate/Eliminations | -16 | -28 | -12 | -17 | -19 |
| Commercial Risk Solutions | 6,635 | ||||
| Health Solutions | 2,154 | ||||
| Reinsurance Solutions | 1,997 | ||||
| Wealth Solutions | 1,426 | ||||
| Total | 17,181 | 15,698 | 13,376 | 12,479 | 12,193 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk Capital | 3,436 | 3,292 | 2,946 | 2,895 | 1,587 |
| Human Capital | 1,410 | 1,143 | 1,097 | 961 | 557 |
| Corporate/Eliminations | -502 | -600 | -258 | -187 | |
| Unallocated expenses | -238 | ||||
| Total | 4,344 | 3,835 | 3,785 | 3,669 | 1,906 |
| $ Mil | 2009 | 2008 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk and Insurance Brokerage Services | 14,570 | 14,285 | 12,869 | 12,566 | 13,235 |
| Unallocated | 8,020 | ||||
| Consulting | 368 | 379 | 348 | 319 | 333 |
| Insurance Underwriting | 3,327 | 7,233 | 7,122 | ||
| Corporate | 7,700 | ||||
| Total | 22,958 | 14,664 | 16,544 | 27,818 | 20,690 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $302.69 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 64.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/07/1984 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -20.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $350.79 | $335.17 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | up |
| Distance from DMA | -13.7% | -9.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 34.7% | 27.4% |
| Downside Capture | -10.99 | -11.71 |
| Upside Capture | -58.44 | -32.44 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -18.0% | -10.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.34 | -0.44 | -0.58 | -0.33 | -0.23 | 0.25 |
| Up Beta | -0.21 | -1.30 | -0.85 | -0.34 | -0.35 | 0.29 |
| Down Beta | 0.14 | -0.46 | -0.54 | -0.30 | -0.09 | 0.32 |
| Up Capture | -25% | -28% | -36% | -24% | -17% | 4% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 17 | 29 | 59 | 119 | 388 |
| Down Capture | 250% | 26% | -64% | -42% | -29% | 40% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 25 | 35 | 68 | 131 | 362 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AON | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AON | -15.8% | 27.5% | -0.64 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 9.0% | 14.6% | 0.37 | 38.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 18.3% | 12.8% | 1.03 | -10.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.0% | 29.2% | 0.59 | -22.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 48.3% | 20.6% | 1.80 | -13.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 7.6% | 13.6% | 0.29 | 25.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -32.4% | 43.8% | -0.77 | 0.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AON | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AON | 1.6% | 23.6% | 0.03 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 10.2% | 18.4% | 0.42 | 50.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.5% | 17.2% | 0.55 | 38.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.7% | 18.8% | 0.81 | -4.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.4% | 19.5% | 0.46 | -0.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.7% | 18.9% | -0.07 | 42.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 9.4% | 52.6% | 0.36 | 15.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AON | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AON | 7.3% | 24.7% | 0.44 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 13.2% | 22.1% | 0.54 | 50.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 43.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.3% | 16.3% | 0.62 | -1.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.7% | 18.1% | 0.39 | 5.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.7% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 45.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.2% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 15.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/31/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/29/2026 | -1.1% | -6.2% | -6.9% |
| 5/1/2026 | 0.2% | 0.9% | 3.1% |
| 1/30/2026 | 2.0% | 0.3% | -1.3% |
| 10/31/2025 | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.6% |
| 7/25/2025 | 4.6% | -0.3% | 5.4% |
| 4/25/2025 | -8.0% | -3.5% | -2.1% |
| 1/31/2025 | -0.4% | 3.6% | 10.2% |
| 10/25/2024 | 5.2% | 2.8% | 8.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 11 | 14 |
| # Negative | 14 | 13 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 4.9% | 3.6% | 7.2% |
| Median Negative | -2.3% | -3.5% | -6.0% |
| Max Positive | 8.0% | 10.2% | 12.9% |
| Max Negative | -9.3% | -9.7% | -11.3% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/29/2026 | -1.1% | -6.2% | -6.9% |
| 5/1/2026 | 0.2% | 0.9% | 3.1% |
| 1/30/2026 | 2.0% | 0.3% | -1.3% |
| 10/31/2025 | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.6% |
| 7/25/2025 | 4.6% | -0.3% | 5.4% |
| 4/25/2025 | -8.0% | -3.5% | -2.1% |
| 1/31/2025 | -0.4% | 3.6% | 10.2% |
| 10/25/2024 | 5.2% | 2.8% | 8.4% |
| 7/26/2024 | 8.0% | 9.9% | 12.9% |
| 4/26/2024 | -6.9% | -8.2% | -8.0% |
| 2/2/2024 | -2.5% | 2.4% | 5.3% |
| 10/27/2023 | -4.0% | 0.7% | 2.7% |
| 7/28/2023 | -5.1% | -5.7% | -1.3% |
| 4/28/2023 | -2.1% | -3.5% | -6.5% |
| 2/3/2023 | -2.9% | -1.7% | -5.5% |
| 10/28/2022 | 2.4% | -1.9% | 8.3% |
| 7/29/2022 | -0.4% | -2.2% | -2.2% |
| 4/29/2022 | -9.3% | -9.7% | -11.3% |
| 2/4/2022 | 5.4% | 3.9% | 4.3% |
| 10/29/2021 | -0.2% | -9.5% | -7.4% |
| 7/30/2021 | -1.2% | -0.3% | 8.3% |
| 4/30/2021 | 5.3% | 7.5% | 6.1% |
| 2/5/2021 | 7.3% | 10.2% | 10.5% |
| 10/30/2020 | -1.3% | -0.5% | 10.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 11 | 14 |
| # Negative | 14 | 13 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 4.9% | 3.6% | 7.2% |
| Median Negative | -2.3% | -3.5% | -6.0% |
| Max Positive | 8.0% | 10.2% | 12.9% |
| Max Negative | -9.3% | -9.7% | -11.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/18/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/16/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/17/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/18/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/16/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/17/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/18/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/30/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/30/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/19/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/31/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/01/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/14/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/25/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/30/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Adjusted EPS Impact | Reported | 0 | ||||||
| 2026 Organic Revenue Growth | Reported | 5.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Operating Margin Expansion | Reported | 0.7% | 0.75% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.75% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Adjusted EPS Impact | Reported | 0.42 | -4.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 0.44 for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/1/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Organic Revenue Growth | Reported | 5.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Operating Margin Expansion | Reported | 0.7% | 0.75% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.75% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Adjusted EPS Impact (Foreign Currency) | Reported | 0.44 | 12.8% | Raised | Guidance: 0.39 for 2026 | |||
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EPS Impact (Foreign Currency) | Reported | 0 | ||||||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Organic Revenue Growth | Reported | 5.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Adjusted Operating Margin Expansion | Reported | 0.7% | 0.75% | 0.8% | ||||
| 2026 Foreign Currency Impact on EPS | Reported | 0.39 | ||||||
| Q1 2026 Foreign Currency Impact on EPS | Reported | 0.36 | ||||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/31/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Adjusted EPS Impact | Reported | 0 | Raised | Guidance: -0.05 for 2025 | ||||
Insider Activity
Updated 9/3/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Knight, Lester B | Family Partnership | Buy | 9032026 | 327.48 | 20,000 | 6,549,688 | 53,379,960 | Form | |
| 2 | Zeidel, Darren | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 7302026 | 377.76 | 1,900 | 717,750 | 4,345,825 | Form |
| 3 | Zeidel, Darren | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 7212026 | 372.05 | 1,950 | 725,500 | 4,987,012 | Form |
| 4 | Zeidel, Darren | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 7092026 | 360.00 | 600 | 216,000 | 5,527,476 | Form |
| 5 | Zeidel, Darren | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 3022026 | 329.72 | 4,300 | 1,417,784 | 5,260,339 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Knight, Lester B | Family Partnership | Buy | 9032026 | 327.48 | 20,000 | 6,549,688 | 53,379,960 | Form | |
| 2 | Zeidel, Darren | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 7302026 | 377.76 | 1,900 | 717,750 | 4,345,825 | Form |
| 3 | Zeidel, Darren | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 7212026 | 372.05 | 1,950 | 725,500 | 4,987,012 | Form |
| 4 | Zeidel, Darren | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 7092026 | 360.00 | 600 | 216,000 | 5,527,476 | Form |
| 5 | Zeidel, Darren | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 3022026 | 329.72 | 4,300 | 1,417,784 | 5,260,339 | Form |
| 6 | Zeidel, Darren | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 325.79 | 5,040 | 1,641,982 | 6,598,583 | Form |
| 7 | Knight, Lester B | Family Partnership | Buy | 2122026 | 319.24 | 4,000 | 1,276,956 | 45,651,191 | Form | |
| 8 | Zeidel, Darren | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 11072025 | 344.52 | 8,800 | 3,031,818 | 6,977,717 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 14, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LFL Advisers, LLC | $40.9 Mil | 12.3% | 9 | ADD +36.7% | 13F |
| BloombergSen Inc. | $82.0 Mil | 9.2% | 27 | Hold | 13F |
| Meritage Group LP | $219.5 Mil | 8.3% | 13 | New | 13F |
| GFI Investment Counsel Ltd. | $50.8 Mil | 6.9% | 24 | New | 13F |
| Cryder Capital Partners LLP | $103.8 Mil | 6.8% | 10 | ADD +9.0% | 13F |
| Independent Franchise Partners LLP | $835.4 Mil | 5.8% | 26 | ADD +22.3% | 13F |
| Broad Run Investment Management, LLC | $32.7 Mil | 5.7% | 24 | TRIM -5.1% | 13F |
| Petrus Trust Company, LTA | $49.5 Mil | 5.4% | 27 | ADD +6.5% | 13F |
| Bowie Capital Management, LLC | $104.0 Mil | 4.9% | 29 | TRIM -6.4% | 13F |
| Weitz Investment Management, Inc. | $69.0 Mil | 4.8% | 49 | Hold | 13F |
| Longview Partners (Guernsey) LTD | $315.1 Mil | 4.5% | 25 | TRIM -11.7% | 13F |
| Ycg, LLC | $47.5 Mil | 4.3% | 42 | Hold | 13F |
| Night Owl Capital Management, LLC | $35.3 Mil | 4.1% | 30 | Hold | 13F |
| M.D. Sass, LLC | $46.0 Mil | 3.5% | 36 | ADD +31.2% | 13F |
| Southpoint Capital Advisors LP | $161.4 Mil | 3.3% | 41 | TRIM -23.1% | 13F |
| Philadelphia Financial Management of San Francisco, LLC | $9.0 Mil | 2.9% | 42 | New | 13F |
| Central Securities Corp | $25.8 Mil | 2.1% | 30 | TRIM -20.0% | 13F |
| Haverford Financial Services, Inc. | $5.8 Mil | 1.7% | 46 | TRIM -18.9% | 13F |
| Eminence Capital, LP | $57.8 Mil | 1.3% | 33 | New | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meritage Group LP | $219.5 Mil | 8.3% | 13 | New | 13F |
| Eminence Capital, LP | $57.8 Mil | 1.3% | 33 | New | 13F |
| GFI Investment Counsel Ltd. | $50.8 Mil | 6.9% | 24 | New | 13F |
| Philadelphia Financial Management of San Francisco, LLC | $9.0 Mil | 2.9% | 42 | New | 13F |
| LFL Advisers, LLC | $40.9 Mil | 12.3% | 9 | ADD +36.7% | 13F |
| M.D. Sass, LLC | $46.0 Mil | 3.5% | 36 | ADD +31.2% | 13F |
| Independent Franchise Partners LLP | $835.4 Mil | 5.8% | 26 | ADD +22.3% | 13F |
| Cryder Capital Partners LLP | $103.8 Mil | 6.8% | 10 | ADD +9.0% | 13F |
| Petrus Trust Company, LTA | $49.5 Mil | 5.4% | 27 | ADD +6.5% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southpoint Capital Advisors LP | $161.4 Mil | 3.3% | 41 | TRIM -23.1% | 13F |
| Central Securities Corp | $25.8 Mil | 2.1% | 30 | TRIM -20.0% | 13F |
| Haverford Financial Services, Inc. | $5.8 Mil | 1.7% | 46 | TRIM -18.9% | 13F |
| Longview Partners (Guernsey) LTD | $315.1 Mil | 4.5% | 25 | TRIM -11.7% | 13F |
| Bowie Capital Management, LLC | $104.0 Mil | 4.9% | 29 | TRIM -6.4% | 13F |
| Broad Run Investment Management, LLC | $32.7 Mil | 5.7% | 24 | TRIM -5.1% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independent Franchise Partners LLP | $835.4 Mil | 5.8% | 26 | ADD +22.3% | 13F |
| Longview Partners (Guernsey) LTD | $315.1 Mil | 4.5% | 25 | TRIM -11.7% | 13F |
| Meritage Group LP | $219.5 Mil | 8.3% | 13 | New | 13F |
| Southpoint Capital Advisors LP | $161.4 Mil | 3.3% | 41 | TRIM -23.1% | 13F |
| Bowie Capital Management, LLC | $104.0 Mil | 4.9% | 29 | TRIM -6.4% | 13F |
| Cryder Capital Partners LLP | $103.8 Mil | 6.8% | 10 | ADD +9.0% | 13F |
| BloombergSen Inc. | $82.0 Mil | 9.2% | 27 | Hold | 13F |
| Weitz Investment Management, Inc. | $69.0 Mil | 4.8% | 49 | Hold | 13F |
| Eminence Capital, LP | $57.8 Mil | 1.3% | 33 | New | 13F |
| GFI Investment Counsel Ltd. | $50.8 Mil | 6.9% | 24 | New | 13F |
| Petrus Trust Company, LTA | $49.5 Mil | 5.4% | 27 | ADD +6.5% | 13F |
| Ycg, LLC | $47.5 Mil | 4.3% | 42 | Hold | 13F |
| M.D. Sass, LLC | $46.0 Mil | 3.5% | 36 | ADD +31.2% | 13F |
| LFL Advisers, LLC | $40.9 Mil | 12.3% | 9 | ADD +36.7% | 13F |
| Night Owl Capital Management, LLC | $35.3 Mil | 4.1% | 30 | Hold | 13F |
| Broad Run Investment Management, LLC | $32.7 Mil | 5.7% | 24 | TRIM -5.1% | 13F |
| Central Securities Corp | $25.8 Mil | 2.1% | 30 | TRIM -20.0% | 13F |
| Philadelphia Financial Management of San Francisco, LLC | $9.0 Mil | 2.9% | 42 | New | 13F |
| Haverford Financial Services, Inc. | $5.8 Mil | 1.7% | 46 | TRIM -18.9% | 13F |
AON Trade Sentinel
Neutral / Watch
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Aon is pivoting to a high-stakes acquisition strategy to reignite growth, acquiring USI for $17.0 billion. While its core business maintains industry-leading margins, reported revenue growth has slowed to 2.2%. The investment outcome now depends entirely on management's ability to successfully integrate this massive deal and deliver on its 2028 accretion targets.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Professional Services / Advisory(Number of Clients) x (Scope & Number of Engagements) x (Commission Rates / Fees) Operating leverage generated by the Aon Business Services (ABS) platform, which standardizes processes and embeds AI-enabled analytics to lower unit costs and increase capacity for growth investments.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Aon is aggressively acquiring assets to build a dominant U.S. middle-market platform, aiming to re-accelerate growth.
- Announced definitive agreement to acquire USI for $17.0 billion.
- TTM operating margin expanded 2.4 percentage points to 28.5%.
- Company reaffirmed full-year guidance for mid-single-digit or greater organic growth.
- New business generation contributed 10 points to organic growth in Q2 2026.
PRIMARY RISK
The large-scale USI acquisition could fail to deliver synergies, distract management, and mask further deceleration in the core business, leading to significant value destruction.
- Reported revenue growth slowed sharply to 2.2% from the prior quarter.
- Company lowered its 2026 Adjusted EPS Impact guidance by -4.5%.
- Accounts receivable grew 4.7%, more than double the rate of revenue.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Organic Revenue Growth | 5% in Q2 2026 - Stable | Organic revenue growth has stabilized at 5% for the last three quarters. While management notes this is in line with their 'mid-single-digit or better' objective, it represents a deceleration from the 7% growth reported in Q3 2025. This stability at a lower level suggests a plateau in momentum. |
| Revenue-Generating Talent Growth | Up 3% year-to-date as of Q2 2026 - Decelerating | The rate of adding new revenue-generating talent has slowed significantly compared to the prior year. Management acknowledges a competitive talent market but remains on track to expand this population by 4% to 8% for the full year, implying an expected acceleration in hiring in the second half. |
| New Business Contribution to Organic Growth | 10 points (Q2 2026) | Indicates the effectiveness of the company's sales efforts, including winning new clients and expanding business with existing ones. A consistent contribution of 9 to 11 points is noted as a durable foundation for growth. |
| Revenue-Generating Headcount Growth (Net) | 3% year-to-date (Q2 2026) | Represents the net change in client-facing talent, indicating investment in future growth capacity. The company targets 4% to 8% annual growth. |
| Client Retention | mid-90s level (Q2 2026) | Measures the stability of the recurring revenue base and the strength of client relationships. |
Strategic Pivot or Desperate Purchase?
BULL VIEW
Aon is using its scale and cash flow to consolidate the fragmented U.S. middle market, creating a new, durable growth platform that will re-accelerate earnings and justify the premium paid.
CORE TENSION
Can the new M&A engine offset core business deceleration, which saw reported revenue growth slow to 2.2%?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bears. The market reacted negatively to the deal, and leading indicators like hiring and a recent guidance revision show signs of stress.
BEAR VIEW
The massive $17.0 billion USI deal is a high-risk attempt to buy growth because the core business is maturing, a fact signaled by slowing reported revenue and a recent guidance cut.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
10/26/2026 - 10/28/2026 | Negative Peer Read-Through Watch: Peer commentary on pricing cycles, demand trends, and any signs of worsening market conditions for insurance brokers. |
10/28/2026 | Peer Earnings Reports Watch: Multiple peers (WTW, RYAN, ERIE, AJG) are scheduled to report earnings. |
10/29/2026 | Earnings Miss From Deceleration Watch: Whether quarterly revenue growth continues to decelerate, and management's commentary on the drivers of the slowdown. |
10/29/2026 | Next Earnings Report Watch: Aon is scheduled to report its next quarterly earnings. |
January 2027 | Junior Subordinated Notes Mature Watch: $521 million of 8.205% Junior Subordinated Notes are due. |
March 2027 | Senior Notes Mature Watch: $600 million of 5.125% Senior Notes are due. |
May 2027 | Senior Notes Mature Watch: $600 million of 2.850% Senior Notes are due. |
No set date | Large Acquisition Integration Risk Watch: Management commentary on integration progress, achievement of synergies, and any signs of client or employee attrition. |
No set date | Adverse Vesttoo Litigation Ruling Watch: Court filings, rulings on Aon's motion to dismiss, or any company disclosures regarding potential settlements or liabilities. |
Thursday, September 10, in a session that begins at 1:35 PM ET | KBW Insurance Conference Presentation Watch: CEO Greg Case will speak at the KBW Insurance Conference in New York. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-08-31 | Major Middle-Market Acquisition Details: Aon announced a definitive agreement to acquire USI for a total purchase price of $17.0 billion to expand its U.S. middle-market platform. | -8.2% $355.40 -> $326.30 |
2026-08-17 | CFO Transition Announced Details: Aon announced that Edmund Reese would transition from his role as CFO to pursue other opportunities, with Nadin Virani appointed as Interim CFO. | -3.5% $355.83 -> $343.20 |
2026-07-29 | Q2 Earnings and Guidance Cut Details: Aon reported 5% organic revenue growth for Q2 2026 but lowered its 2026 Adjusted EPS Impact guidance by -4.5%. The stock reacted negatively, falling -4.0%. | -3.9% $380.39 -> $365.74 |
2026-07-20 | Data Center Program Expanded Again Details: Aon announced the next evolution of its Data Center Lifecycle Insurance Program, expanding program capacity to $5 billion. | -2.1% $366.37 -> $358.58 |
2026-05-13 | Claims Copilot Expanded Globally Details: Aon announced the global expansion of Aon Claims Copilot, its connected claims management platform, to enhance data visibility and analytics. | -0.3% $315.63 -> $314.69 |
2026-04-15 | Data Center Program Expanded Details: Aon announced an expansion of its Data Center Lifecycle Insurance Program, increasing total program capacity to $3.5 billion. | +3.8% $321.44 -> $333.70 |
2026-03-10 | North America Leadership Transition Details: Aon announced that Anne Corona would become CEO of North America, with Lori Goltermann being elevated to Vice Chair of Aon. | -4.8% $331.21 -> $315.35 |
Position Sizing
5% - 7%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: AON trades at roughly 26% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 13% for the S&P 500 (2.0x the market), around the 76th percentile of its own trailing year. A 5% - 7% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
AJG - Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
Higher Growth ExposureAJG offers significantly faster top-line growth, with TTM revenue up 26.3% versus Aon's 4.9%. This suggests a more aggressive and currently more successful consolidation strategy.
WTW - Willis Towers Watson
Self-Help StoryAn integrated professional services firm leveraging a proprietary data and analytics platform (Aon Business Services) to convert commoditized brokerage into high-value, recurring advisory revenue on complex risk and human capital issues.
Aon is strategically shifting from a transactional broker to a high-value advisor. Its 'Aon United' strategy, powered by the Aon Business Services (ABS) technology engine, integrates its Risk and Human Capital segments to deliver differentiated insights. This data-driven moat allows Aon to drive organic growth even in soft pricing markets and expand into new, complex risk areas like digital infrastructure, making its revenue streams more durable and less cyclical.
Sustained mid-single-digit or greater organic growth despite reinsurance rate pressure; continued margin expansion driven by operating leverage from ABS; successful integration of large-scale acquisitions like the one announced in August.
A decline in revenue-generating headcount, failure to integrate major acquisitions leading to margin pressure, or evidence that competitors are winning share with superior data and AI tools.
Quarter-to-quarter volatility in M&A advisory services revenue, which management noted can be impacted by the timing of closed deals.
Repricing Catalyst
The successful execution and integration of the large-scale acquisition announced in August, which aims to establish a premier U.S. middle-market platform and is expected to be accretive to adjusted EPS in 2028.
Risk Capital
$11.6B TTM (66% of Total) · 31% MarginWhat It Is
Provides Commercial Risk Solutions (insurance brokerage, global risk consulting, captives management) and Reinsurance Solutions (treaty and facultative reinsurance, capital markets advisory) to organizations to help them manage their risk management strategies.
Who Pays & How
Organizations pay for strategic advice and access to insurance and reinsurance capital. They choose Aon for its extensive data and analytics capabilities, which help them develop resilient insurance programs and manage the trade-offs between risk retention and transfer.
Competition
Human Capital
$5.9B TTM (34% of Total) · 25% MarginWhat It Is
Provides Health Solutions (health and benefits consulting, talent advisory) and Wealth Solutions (retirement consulting, pension administration, investment consulting) to organizations.
Who Pays & How
Organizations pay for customized strategies to manage risk, drive employee engagement, and strengthen their workforce. They choose Aon for its world-class analytics and technology to help manage healthcare outcomes, navigate global regulatory requirements, and optimize total rewards strategies.
Competition
Aon — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Insurance Brokers Resources |
| Insurance Business America |
| A.M. Best |
| National Underwriter |
| Insurance News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.