Essent (ESNT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $61.93 | Market Cap: $6.0 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance
Essent (ESNT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $61.93Market Cap: $6.0 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.2%, FCF Yield is 14% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -16%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -2.5% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.3% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -92% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 66%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 65% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Financial System Resilience. Themes include Mortgage Credit Risk Management, and Housing Market Stability. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.2%, FCF Yield is 14% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -92% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 66%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 65% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Financial System Resilience. Themes include Mortgage Credit Risk Management, and Housing Market Stability. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -16%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -2.5% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.3% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ESNT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Essent (ESNT) stock moved by -0.9% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Essent Group reported Third Quarter 2025 earnings that fell short of Wall Street expectations for both revenue and earnings per share. The company posted adjusted earnings per share of $1.67, missing analyst estimates of $1.77.
2. The company's Third Quarter 2025 revenue of $311.8 million was below analyst estimates of $317 million, representing a 1.5% year-on-year decline and a 1.6% miss.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ESNT Return | -16% | 7% | -13% | 39% | 5% | 16% | 34% |
| Peers Return | -11% | -12% | -26% | 86% | 44% | 71% | 164% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ESNT Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 42% | 67% | 42% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 40% | 62% | 57% | 64% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ESNT Max Drawdown | -62% | -5% | -23% | -5% | -2% | -2% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -44% | -22% | -33% | -5% | -12% | -5% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FNMA, MTG, RDN, TFSL, RKT. See ESNT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ESNT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -35.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 472 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -62.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 169.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 405 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -37.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 270 days | 120 days |
Compare to FNMA, MTG, RDN, TFSL, RKT
In The Past
Essent's stock fell -35.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/28/2021. A -35.1% loss requires a 54.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ESNT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Essent
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 24.00 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.3 |
| Rev LTM | 1,288 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 414 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 411 |
| CFO LTM | 420 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 414 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | -0.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 30.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.3 |
| P/S | 5.1 |
| P/EBIT | 6.6 |
| P/E | 8.5 |
| P/CFO | 7.7 |
| Total Yield | 13.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.5% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 12.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 12.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 116.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -2.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -3.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 41.9% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2162024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2172023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2162022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |