Essent (ESNT)
Market Price (12/22/2025): $66.15 | Market Cap: $6.4 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance
Essent (ESNT)
Market Price (12/22/2025): $66.15Market Cap: $6.4 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.6%, FCF Yield is 13% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.8%, Dist 3Y High is -0.8% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.3% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -88% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -9.3% | Key risksESNT key risks include [1] adverse changes to its essential partners Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the GSEs), Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 66%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 65% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Financial System Resilience. Themes include Mortgage Credit Risk Management, and Housing Market Stability. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.6%, FCF Yield is 13% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -88% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 66%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 65% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Financial System Resilience. Themes include Mortgage Credit Risk Management, and Housing Market Stability. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.8%, Dist 3Y High is -0.8% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -9.3% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.3% |
| Key risksESNT key risks include [1] adverse changes to its essential partners Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the GSEs), Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ESNT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The stock of Essent (ESNT) experienced significant movements in the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 22, 2025, driven by a combination of company-specific financial results, strategic capital allocation, and broader market sentiment.
1. Essent's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Miss Led to Pre-Market Decline. The company reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings on November 7, 2025, where it announced net income of $164.2 million, or $1.67 per diluted share, missing analyst expectations of $1.77 EPS. Revenue also fell short of targets, leading to a reported 5.81% stock decline in pre-market trading.
2. New Share Repurchase Authorization Bolstered Investor Confidence. Essent Group's Board of Directors approved a new $500 million share repurchase authorization extending through year-end 2027. This action, along with the repurchase of 8.7 million shares for $501 million year-to-date through October 31, 2025, signals a commitment to returning capital to shareholders, which typically supports stock valuation.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ESNT Return | -16% | 7% | -13% | 39% | 5% | 25% | 44% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | 19% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ESNT Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 42% | 67% | 42% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | 64% | 65% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ESNT Max Drawdown | -62% | -5% | -23% | -5% | -2% | -2% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | -6% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MTG, ACT, RDN, ACGL, NMIH. See ESNT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ESNT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -35.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 472 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -62.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 169.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 405 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -37.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 270 days | 120 days |
Compare to FNMA, MTG, RDN, TFSL, RKT
In The Past
Essent's stock fell -35.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/28/2021. A -35.1% loss requires a 54.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ESNT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.5% | 13.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.0% | 2.0% | -0.5% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.8% | -4.8% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.8% | 5.8% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.1% | -12.1% | -12.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.5% | 13.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.0% | 2.0% | -0.5% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.8% | -4.8% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.8% | 5.8% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.1% | -12.1% | -12.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Essent
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 40.73 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.2 |
| Rev LTM | 1,258 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 754 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 706 |
| CFO LTM | 754 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 707 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | -0.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 57.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 58.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 56.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 57.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.2 |
| P/S | 4.7 |
| P/EBIT | 6.8 |
| P/E | 8.9 |
| P/CFO | 7.8 |
| Total Yield | 13.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 12.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 8.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 22.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 85.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -6.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 5.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 14.4% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/7/2025 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 2.0% |
| 8/8/2025 | 5.7% | 10.2% | 12.5% |
| 5/9/2025 | -0.3% | 0.5% | -1.5% |
| 2/14/2025 | -2.6% | -3.0% | -4.8% |
| 11/1/2024 | -10.4% | -7.9% | -4.5% |
| 8/2/2024 | -2.1% | -2.9% | 5.4% |
| 5/3/2024 | 0.5% | 4.1% | 7.0% |
| 2/9/2024 | -2.2% | 1.1% | 5.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 12 | 14 |
| # Negative | 11 | 12 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 1.7% | 2.0% | 4.7% |
| Median Negative | -2.2% | -3.0% | -6.2% |
| Max Positive | 5.7% | 10.2% | 42.3% |
| Max Negative | -10.4% | -7.9% | -34.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2162024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2172023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2162022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |