Ellington Financial (EFC)
Market Price (3/13/2026): $12.0 | Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Specialized Finance
Ellington Financial (EFC)
Market Price (3/13/2026): $12.0Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Specialized Finance
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 26%, Dividend Yield is 15%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 22% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -31% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 1334% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 20% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -302%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -302% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Credit. | Key risksEFC key risks include [1] a high 8.6:1 leverage ratio contributing to a distress-level bankruptcy risk score and [2] a recent doubling in its portfolio of non-performing loans. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 26%, Dividend Yield is 15%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 22% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 20% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Credit. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -31% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 1334% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -302%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -302% |
| Key risksEFC key risks include [1] a high 8.6:1 leverage ratio contributing to a distress-level bankruptcy risk score and [2] a recent doubling in its portfolio of non-performing loans. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Ellington Financial (EFC) stock has lost about 10% since 11/30/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Dilution from Common Stock Offering.
Ellington Financial experienced a decline following its announcement on January 27, 2026, of a public offering of 8.775 million shares of common stock to raise expected gross proceeds of $118.5 million. This offering, intended to redeem outstanding Series A Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock, caused the stock to fall 4% in the morning session due to the potential dilution of existing shareholders.
2. Muted Market Reaction to Exceeding Q4 2025 Expectations.
Despite reporting strong financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025, which surpassed analyst expectations, Ellington Financial's stock saw a slight premarket dip of 0.48% on February 26, 2026, trading at $12.46. The company reported earnings per share of $0.47 against a forecast of $0.45, a 4.44% surprise, and revenue of $146.65 million compared to the anticipated $97.54 million, a 50.35% beat. This indicated that even positive company-specific news was not enough to significantly boost the stock during this period, suggesting other market pressures or profit-taking outweighed the strong performance.
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1. Dilution from Common Stock Offering.
Ellington Financial experienced a decline following its announcement on January 27, 2026, of a public offering of 8.775 million shares of common stock to raise expected gross proceeds of $118.5 million. This offering, intended to redeem outstanding Series A Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock, caused the stock to fall 4% in the morning session due to the potential dilution of existing shareholders.
2. Muted Market Reaction to Exceeding Q4 2025 Expectations.
Despite reporting strong financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025, which surpassed analyst expectations, Ellington Financial's stock saw a slight premarket dip of 0.48% on February 26, 2026, trading at $12.46. The company reported earnings per share of $0.47 against a forecast of $0.45, a 4.44% surprise, and revenue of $146.65 million compared to the anticipated $97.54 million, a 50.35% beat. This indicated that even positive company-specific news was not enough to significantly boost the stock during this period, suggesting other market pressures or profit-taking outweighed the strong performance.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -10.4% change in EFC stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -7.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.30 | 11.92 | -10.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 301 | 307 | 1.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 51.6% | 47.9% | -7.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 8.8 | 8.6 | -2.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 103 | 105 | -2.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -10.4% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EFC | -10.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.5% | 5.8% |
| Sector (XLF) | -8.4% | 14.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -7.3% change in EFC stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -9.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 12.86 | 11.92 | -7.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 286 | 307 | 7.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 49.6% | 47.9% | -3.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 8.7 | 8.6 | -1.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 96 | 105 | -9.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -7.3% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EFC | -7.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.5% | 3.3% |
| Sector (XLF) | -9.3% | 12.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -6.5% change in EFC stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -16.5% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 12.75 | 11.92 | -6.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 295 | 307 | 3.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 45.5% | 47.9% | 5.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 8.4 | 8.6 | 2.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 88 | 105 | -16.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -6.5% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EFC | -6.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.1% | 48.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | -5.4% | 48.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 36.3% change in EFC stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -42.9% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.74 | 11.92 | 36.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | -4 | 307 | -8319.5% |
| P/S Multiple | -141.2 | 4.1 | -102.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 60 | 105 | -42.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 36.3% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EFC | 36.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.3% | 49.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | 43.0% | 51.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| EFC Return | 26% | -18% | 18% | 9% | 26% | -10% | 51% |
| Peers Return | 16% | -20% | 20% | 4% | 22% | -2% | 40% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -1% | 80% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| EFC Win Rate | 75% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 58% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 50% | 53% | 60% | 63% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| EFC Max Drawdown | -2% | -29% | -10% | -12% | -2% | -11% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -4% | -33% | -17% | -9% | -6% | -3% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -2% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AGNC, NLY, RITM, STWD, BXMT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/12/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | EFC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -41.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -79.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 382.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 419 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -14.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 367 days | 120 days |
Compare to AGNC, NLY, RITM, STWD, BXMT
In The Past
Ellington Financial's stock fell -41.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/12/2021. A -41.2% loss requires a 69.9% gain to breakeven.
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About Ellington Financial (EFC)
Ellington Financial Inc., through its subsidiary, Ellington Financial Operating Partnership LLC, acquires and manages mortgage-related, consumer-related, corporate-related, and other financial assets in the United States. The company acquires and manages residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) backed by prime jumbo, Alt-A, manufactured housing, and subprime residential mortgage loans; RMBS for which the principal and interest payments are guaranteed by the U.S. government agency or the U.S. government-sponsored entity; residential mortgage loans; commercial mortgage-backed securities; and commercial mortgage loans and other commercial real estate debt. It also provides collateralized loan obligations; mortgage-related and non-mortgage-related derivatives; corporate debt and equity securities; corporate loans; and other strategic investments. In addition, the company offers consumer loans and asset-backed securities backed by consumer and commercial assets. Ellington Financial LLC was incorporated in 2007 and is based in Old Greenwich, Connecticut.
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Here are 1-2 brief analogies to describe Ellington Financial (EFC):
Think of it as a highly specialized investment desk within a major financial institution such as Goldman Sachs, focused entirely on profiting from mortgage-backed securities and other real estate loans.
It operates like a large insurance company's fixed-income division, but dedicated solely to profiting from mortgage loans and bonds rather than managing claims or policies.
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Ellington Financial (EFC) Major Products and Services
- Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities (RMBS): Investing in various types of securities backed by pools of residential mortgages.
- Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS): Investing in securities backed by pools of commercial real estate loans.
- Mortgage Loans: Investing directly in residential and commercial mortgage loans, including performing and non-performing loans.
- Other Mortgage-Related and Real Estate Assets: Investing in a diverse range of assets such as credit risk transfer securities, real estate equity, and mezzanine debt.
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Ellington Financial Inc. (symbol: EFC) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily invests in and manages a diverse portfolio of financial assets, including residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), mortgage loans, and corporate debt. The company generates income mainly from the interest and dividends on its investments, as well as from capital gains on the sale of these assets. Given this business model, EFC does not have "major customers" in the traditional sense of a company selling goods or services to a defined set of buyers. Its transactions primarily occur within the broad financial markets with other institutional participants. Therefore, EFC sells primarily to **other companies** rather than individuals. It is generally not possible to identify specific "major customer companies" with names and symbols for EFC. This is because the company operates in liquid, institutional financial markets, and its transactions are typically with a wide array of financial institutions. No single or few entities constitute "major customers" whose relationships are publicly disclosed or critical to its revenue in the way a traditional vendor-client relationship would be. The categories of "customer companies" with which EFC transacts when it is selling assets or engaging in other financial market activities include:- Institutional Investors: This category includes other asset managers, hedge funds, pension funds, and insurance companies that purchase various types of securities from EFC's portfolio (e.g., RMBS, CMBS, corporate debt). These transactions are typically executed through broker-dealers in the open market.
- Broker-Dealers and Investment Banks: These firms act as intermediaries in the trading of securities and also serve as counterparties for EFC's financing activities (such as repurchase agreements) and hedging instruments (derivatives). EFC maintains relationships with numerous such firms to facilitate its market activities, but no single firm is typically a "major customer" in a long-term, disclosed capacity. Examples of such firms include major global banks (e.g., Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup), but EFC's transactions are distributed among many.
- Other Financial Institutions: This broad category includes other banks and financial institutions that may purchase assets from EFC or engage in various structured finance transactions.
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Ellington Management Group, L.L.C.
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Laurence Penn, Chief Executive Officer, President & Director
Mr. Penn has served as Ellington Financial's Chief Executive Officer and President and as a member of its board of directors since August 2007. He is also the Executive Vice President of Ellington Financial's Manager and a Vice Chairman of Ellington Management Group (EMG), where he oversees many functions of the firm. Prior to joining EMG in 1995, Mr. Penn was a Managing Director and co-head of CMO origination and trading at Lehman Brothers, where he also managed the structured transaction modeling group and co-created "BondTalk," a high-level programming language for modeling Collateralized Mortgage Obligations. He also serves as Chief Executive Officer, President, and a member of the Board of Trustees of Ellington Credit Company (formerly Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT).
J.R. Herlihy, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer
Mr. Herlihy joined Ellington Management Group in April 2011 and has been Ellington Financial's Chief Financial Officer since April 2018 and Treasurer since May 2017. He also serves as Chief Operating Officer and Treasurer of Ellington Credit Company. Before joining EMG, Mr. Herlihy held various positions in the real estate industry, including at the real estate private equity firm GTIS Partners LP, Capmark Financial Group (formerly GMAC Commercial Mortgage), and Jones Lang LaSalle. He previously served as Interim Chief Financial Officer of Ellington Housing Inc., a former affiliate focused on residential real estate assets.
Michael Vranos, Co-Chief Investment Officer
Mr. Vranos is the Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Ellington Management Group, which he established in 1994. Prior to founding Ellington, he held senior roles in the mortgage departments at Kidder, Peabody & Co., where he was a bond trader, senior managing director, and head of CMO trading, and at Lehman Brothers. He was instrumental in launching Ellington Financial LLC as a specialty finance company in 2007, which subsequently went public on the New York Stock Exchange in 2010. Mr. Vranos also founded Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT, which had its IPO in 2013.
Mark Tecotzky, Co-Chief Investment Officer
Mr. Tecotzky has been Ellington Financial's Co-Chief Investment Officer since March 2008 and also serves as Co-Chief Investment Officer of Ellington Credit Company and Vice Chairman – Co-Head of Credit Strategies of Ellington Management Group. Before joining EMG in July 2006, Mr. Tecotzky was the senior trader in the mortgage department at Credit Suisse, where he developed and launched several securitization vehicles and ran its hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage business. He also previously worked with Mr. Vranos and other EMG principals at Kidder Peabody, where he traded Agency and non-Agency pass-throughs and structured CMOs as a Managing Director. From 2009 to 2020, he served as Chief Executive Officer of Tod's Point Capital LLC.
Lisa Mumford, Board Member
Ms. Mumford has been a member of Ellington Financial's Board of Directors since August 2018. She previously served as the company's Chief Financial Officer and the CFO of its Manager from October 2009 through her retirement in March 2018. Ms. Mumford also held the CFO position for Ellington Credit Company from April 2013 until her retirement. Her earlier career includes serving as Chief Accounting Officer of ACA Capital Holdings, Inc. and as Chief Financial Officer and Controller at ACE Guaranty Corp. She started her career as a staff accountant at Coopers & Lybrand. Ms. Mumford also serves on the Board of Directors of Radian Group Inc.
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Key Risks to Ellington Financial (EFC)
Ellington Financial (EFC), a specialty finance company, faces several significant risks inherent to its business model as a mortgage Real Estate Investment Trust (mREIT). These risks primarily stem from its highly leveraged structure, the credit quality of its investment portfolio, and its sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations and broader macroeconomic conditions.1. Excessive Leverage and Liquidity Risk
Ellington Financial operates with a high degree of leverage, typical for an mREIT, which amplifies both potential returns and risks. As of Q3 2025, the company's total debt-to-equity ratio was notably high at approximately 8.6:1, indicating a significant reliance on debt financing. This high leverage means that a sharp, unexpected downturn in asset values could quickly erode equity. The business model's reliance on short-term repurchase agreements to fund longer-term assets also presents a structural liquidity risk. Furthermore, the company's Altman-Z score, a measure of bankruptcy probability, indicates it is in the distress zone with some risk of bankruptcy. Its low current ratio also suggests potential challenges in meeting short-term obligations.2. Credit Risk and Asset Quality Deterioration
The company is exposed to substantial credit risk, particularly within its non-Qualified Mortgage (non-QM) portfolio. There have been observed signs of strain in credit markets and rising default rates, which directly impact the value and performance of Ellington Financial's investments. A significant portion of its assets includes subordinated and lower-rated securities, which carry a greater risk of loss compared to more senior or higher-rated instruments. The amount of non-performing loans in Ellington Financial's portfolio reportedly doubled from Q3 2023 to Q3 2024, highlighting an increasing credit risk. A deterioration in the U.S. economic momentum could exacerbate these issues, leading to increased borrower defaults and decreased property values.3. Interest Rate Sensitivity and Broader Macroeconomic Factors
Ellington Financial's profitability is highly sensitive to the prevailing interest rate environment and broader macroeconomic conditions. An uncertain interest rate environment or slower-than-expected Federal Reserve rate cuts could lead to increased funding costs on repurchase agreements, thereby negatively impacting earnings. While the company employs hedging strategies to mitigate interest rate risk, the underlying exposure to interest rate fluctuations remains a significant factor affecting its investment portfolio and overall financial performance. Market volatility also poses a risk, potentially resulting in mark-to-market losses on its investment portfolio. Macroeconomic uncertainties, including potential recessions and geopolitical tensions, can lead to decreased property values and reduced demand for mortgage products, further threatening the company's financial stability.AI Analysis | Feedback
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Ellington Financial (EFC) primarily operates in the U.S. and focuses on a diversified portfolio of mortgage-related, consumer-related, and other financial assets. Its main products and services include investments in Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS), direct mortgage loans, and Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) backed by consumer loans.
The addressable markets for their main products and services within the U.S. are substantial:
- Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS): The U.S. MBS market was valued at over $11 trillion in outstanding securities as of mid-2023. The broader Mortgaged Backed Securities market is estimated at $15.55 trillion in 2025 and is projected to reach $22.43 trillion by 2030, with North America holding the largest market share. Within this, the U.S. Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) market capitalization is approximately $1.8 trillion as of December 31, 2024. Global CMBS market size was valued at $1230 billion in 2024 and is forecasted to hit $1862 billion by 2033. Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities (RMBS) issuance in the U.S. totaled $418 billion in 2025. Private-label RMBS issuance is anticipated to increase to approximately $160 billion in 2025.
- Consumer Loan Asset-Backed Securities (ABS): The U.S. ABS market is a dominant segment globally, expanding to over $1.71 trillion in 2025, representing approximately 76% of global ABS issuance. The overall Asset-Backed Securities market in North America, which includes consumer loan ABS, held a share of over 27% in 2023 within the global market. Unsecured consumer loan securitization volumes in the U.S. reached a record $13.4 billion in 2024.
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Ellington Financial (EFC) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several strategic initiatives and market opportunities. These anticipated drivers focus on expanding its investment portfolio, leveraging its securitization capabilities, growing its Longbridge segment, and strengthening its financing structure. Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth:- Expansion of Loan Portfolios: Ellington Financial anticipates continued growth through strategic investments in diversified residential and commercial mortgage loan portfolios. This includes a focus on non-qualified mortgage (non-QM) loans, commercial mortgage bridge loans, and proprietary reverse mortgages. The company also sees potential opportunities in acquiring seasoned mortgage loan portfolios from banks. This expansion in loan acquisitions is a consistent theme across recent earnings calls.
- Robust Securitization Platform Activity: The company's ability to execute securitizations at scale, particularly for non-QM and proprietary reverse mortgage loans, is a significant driver of earnings and is expected to continue propelling revenue growth. Ellington Financial has reported a record pace of securitizations, which contributes to higher net interest income and gains.
- Growth in the Longbridge Segment: The Longbridge segment, which specializes in the origination and servicing of reverse mortgage loans, has shown strong contributions to Ellington Financial's earnings and increasing origination volumes. Continued momentum in this segment, driven by higher origination volumes and margins, is expected to enhance cash flows and revenue.
- Enhanced Funding Flexibility and Balance Sheet Resilience: Ellington Financial is strategically shifting towards a greater proportion of long-term unsecured and securitization-based financing and a lesser reliance on shorter-term repurchase agreements (repo financing). This evolution of its capital structure is expected to strengthen its risk profile, improve capital efficiency, and support more stable earnings, thereby indirectly facilitating revenue growth by providing a more robust funding base for investments. The successful issuance of senior unsecured notes is a key component of this strategy.
- Strategic Technology Investments: Investments in technology are enabling Ellington Financial's originator affiliates to more efficiently originate and deliver a broader range of mortgage products. These technological advancements are expected to improve loan purchase volumes and underwriting quality, contributing to overall portfolio growth and, consequently, revenue.
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Share Issuance
- In July 2021, Ellington Financial raised $143.48 million through a Secondary Public Offering, issuing 7,500,000 shares at $19.13 per share.
- During the three-month period ending September 30, 2025, the company issued 8,156,876 shares of common stock under its At-The-Market (ATM) program.
Inbound Investments
- In October 2025, Ellington Financial completed a $400 million fixed-income offering of senior unsecured notes, enhancing its balance sheet and providing flexibility for future investments or debt refinancing.
Outbound Investments
- In the third quarter of 2025, the adjusted long credit portfolio expanded by 11% to $3.56 billion.
- During Q3 2025, proprietary loan origination businesses generated $1.8 billion in loans, encompassing non-QM, residential transition, commercial mortgage, and reverse mortgage loans.
- The Longbridge portfolio, primarily focused on reverse mortgage loans, increased by a substantial 37% to $750 million.
Capital Expenditures
- The company's primary investments, in the form of loans, grew from $14 billion to approximately $14.7 billion during the first half of 2025.
- Capital deployment is primarily focused on a diverse array of financial assets, including residential and commercial mortgage loans, mortgage-backed securities, consumer loans, and equity investments in loan origination companies.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| How Low Can Ellington Financial Stock Really Go? | 10/17/2025 | |
| EFC Dip Buy Analysis | 07/10/2025 | |
| Time To Buy Ellington Financial Stock? | 05/16/2025 | |
| Ellington Financial Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 22.5% in 2024 and ...% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average) | 03/07/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
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| 02282026 | NDAQ | Nasdaq | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | JEF | Jefferies Financial | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | PAYO | Payoneer Global | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | FOUR | Shift4 Payments | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02202026 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.6% | 2.6% | -6.5% |
Research & Analysis
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Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 14.79 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.8 |
| Rev LTM | 1,313 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 27 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 287 |
| CFO LTM | 464 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 287 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 18.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 14.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 42.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 8.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 33.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -0.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -0.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.8 |
| P/S | 6.0 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 8.0 |
| P/CFO | 9.0 |
| Total Yield | 15.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 5.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
| D/E | 3.6 |
| Net D/E | 3.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -3.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 1.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 57.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -8.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -19.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -28.6% |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $11.92 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/08/2010 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -13.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $12.85 | $12.66 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -7.3% | -5.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 17.2% | 19.9% |
| Downside Capture | 11.29 | 44.02 |
| Upside Capture | -56.46 | 37.63 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 0.6% | 46.5% |
EFC Betas & Captures as of 2/28/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.03 | -0.01 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.55 | 0.71 |
| Up Beta | 1.22 | 0.87 | 0.61 | 0.37 | 0.55 | 0.71 |
| Down Beta | -0.34 | 0.16 | -0.04 | 0.01 | 0.61 | 0.73 |
| Up Capture | -67% | -61% | -22% | -9% | 37% | 40% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 21 | 30 | 61 | 126 | 403 |
| Down Capture | 16% | 1% | 22% | -2% | 62% | 89% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 19 | 28 | 58 | 118 | 324 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EFC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EFC | 2.7% | 19.9% | 0.02 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 3.6% | 19.3% | 0.06 | 47.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.0% | 18.9% | 0.87 | 46.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 74.9% | 26.2% | 2.12 | 7.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.3% | 17.2% | 0.89 | 17.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 16.3% | 0.16 | 56.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -16.1% | 44.2% | -0.27 | 18.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EFC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EFC | 6.8% | 24.0% | 0.25 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 9.5% | 18.7% | 0.39 | 51.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.2% | 17.0% | 0.61 | 53.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.2% | 17.3% | 1.14 | 12.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.9% | 19.0% | 0.46 | 17.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 18.8% | 0.17 | 58.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.3% | 56.8% | 0.35 | 18.2% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EFC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EFC | 7.9% | 42.1% | 0.31 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 12.5% | 22.2% | 0.52 | 40.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.7% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 35.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.6% | 15.6% | 0.77 | 0.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.8% | 17.6% | 0.41 | 16.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.5% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 47.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.7% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 10.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/26/2026 | -0.2% | -2.0% | |
| 11/5/2025 | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| 7/22/2025 | 1.1% | -0.2% | 6.0% |
| 2/28/2025 | -3.4% | -5.2% | -6.7% |
| 11/6/2024 | 3.2% | 1.4% | 3.0% |
| 8/7/2024 | 1.9% | 2.4% | 4.7% |
| 5/8/2024 | 0.7% | 2.7% | 2.6% |
| 2/27/2024 | -2.1% | -0.8% | 5.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 13 | 16 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 1.7% | 2.7% | 4.6% |
| Median Negative | -1.6% | -2.4% | -7.4% |
| Max Positive | 3.2% | 6.9% | 22.6% |
| Max Negative | -4.7% | -12.3% | -12.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 03/02/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/11/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/03/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/10/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simon, Ronald I | Trust | Buy | 10022025 | 13.56 | 5,544 | 75,176 | 1,084,792 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.