Heritage Insurance (HRTG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $28.155 | Market Cap: $871.7 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance
Heritage Insurance (HRTG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $28.155Market Cap: $871.7 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Property & Casualty Insurance
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 19%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 15%, FCF Yield is 13% | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 132% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -72% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 75% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 19%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 15%, FCF Yield is 13% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -72% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Show more. |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 132% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 75% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
HRTG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Exceptional Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Performance.
Heritage Insurance Holdings (HRTG) reported robust third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 5, 2025, which significantly exceeded analyst expectations. The company announced a net income of $50.42 million for the quarter, marking a substantial 518.5% year-over-year increase. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) for Q3 2025 were $1.63, significantly beating the consensus estimate of $0.53 by $1.10. This strong earnings beat served as a major catalyst for positive stock movement.
2. Strong Revenue Growth.
Complementing its impressive earnings, Heritage Insurance also reported solid revenue for the third quarter of 2025, reaching $212.46 million. This figure surpassed analyst revenue estimates, indicating healthy operational performance and an increase in net premiums earned.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HRTG Return | -22% | -40% | -69% | 262% | 86% | 133% | 131% |
| Peers Return | 4% | 27% | 11% | 16% | 31% | 12% | 151% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HRTG Win Rate | 42% | 33% | 42% | 75% | 42% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 57% | 53% | 62% | 68% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HRTG Max Drawdown | -30% | -44% | -77% | 0% | -13% | -10% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -6% | -11% | -14% | -1% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HIG, FNF, PGR, CB, TRV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HRTG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -89.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 808.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 663 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -33.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1378 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -41.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 72.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 120 days |
Compare to HIG, FNF, PGR, CB, TRV
In The Past
Heritage Insurance's stock fell -89.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/19/2021. A -89.0% loss requires a 808.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
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Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to HRTG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Heritage Insurance
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 180.11 |
| Mkt Cap | 50.5 |
| Rev LTM | 38,050 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 8,356 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 7,466 |
| CFO LTM | 8,428 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 7,535 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 21.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 50.5 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| P/EBIT | 8.3 |
| P/E | 11.1 |
| P/CFO | 6.6 |
| Total Yield | 10.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 14.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 5.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 7.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 75.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -7.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 3.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3132025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3132024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11062023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5082023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3132023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3142022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |