Oppenheimer (OPY)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $68.98 | Market Cap: $725.7 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Diversified Capital Markets
Oppenheimer (OPY)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $68.98Market Cap: $725.7 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Diversified Capital Markets
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.7%, FCF Yield is 10% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 88% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Wealth Management Technology, Private Equity, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.7%, FCF Yield is 10% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Wealth Management Technology, Private Equity, Show more. |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 88% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
OPY Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, here are key points that could explain a negative movement in Oppenheimer (OPY) stock:
1. Decline in Q3 2025 Net Income and Earnings Per Share. Oppenheimer Holdings reported a net income of $21.7 million for the third quarter of 2025, a decrease from $24.5 million in the same quarter of the previous year. Basic earnings per share (EPS) also declined to $2.06 from $2.38 year-over-year, and diluted EPS was $1.90. This reduction in profitability, despite overall revenue growth, could have negatively impacted investor sentiment.
2. Increase in Compensation Expenses. The firm's Q3 2025 net income and EPS were negatively impacted by a significant rise in pre-tax compensation expenses, which increased by 22% year-over-year. This was primarily due to higher production-related costs and the increased value of OPY Class A shares, reducing EPS by approximately $0.95 after tax.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OPY Return | 20% | 53% | -7% | -1% | 57% | 6% | 182% |
| Peers Return | -1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -19% | -19% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OPY Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 67% | 58% | 83% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 22% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OPY Max Drawdown | -46% | -4% | -37% | -20% | -10% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ABTC, DMNT, FIGR, GEMI, MIAX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | OPY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -47.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 91.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 653 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -47.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 90.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 243 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -29.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 767 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -87.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 725.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 5617 days | 1480 days |
Compare to ABTC, DMNT, FIGR, GEMI, MIAX
In The Past
Oppenheimer's stock fell -47.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/16/2021. A -47.9% loss requires a 91.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to OPY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Oppenheimer
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 35.38 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.7 |
| Rev LTM | 1,255 |
| Op Inc LTM | 58 |
| FCF LTM | 43 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 8 |
| CFO LTM | 68 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 29 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 4.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 0.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.7 |
| P/S | 0.5 |
| P/EBIT | 3.7 |
| P/E | 9.2 |
| P/CFO | 9.0 |
| Total Yield | 11.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -0.6% |
| D/E | 0.9 |
| Net D/E | 0.9 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -15.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -36.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -40.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -45.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | -12.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -15.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -40.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -55.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -53.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -81.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10312025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8012025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4252025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10252024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7262024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4262024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3012024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10272023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7282023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4282023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10282022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7292022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |