Universal Insurance (UVE)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $32.45 | Market Cap: $903.8 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance
Universal Insurance (UVE)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $32.45Market Cap: $903.8 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Property & Casualty Insurance
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 20%, Dividend Yield is 3.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 16%, FCF Yield is 34% | |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -64% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Climate Resilience & Risk Management. Themes include Catastrophe Risk Modeling, Climate-Adjusted Underwriting, and Property Hardening & Mitigation. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 20%, Dividend Yield is 3.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 16%, FCF Yield is 34% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -64% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Climate Resilience & Risk Management. Themes include Catastrophe Risk Modeling, Climate-Adjusted Underwriting, and Property Hardening & Mitigation. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
UVE Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The requested time period for the stock movement (8/31/2025 to today, December 4, 2025) is in the future. As such, information regarding specific stock movements and their causes for this future period is not yet available. However, based on the most recent available information, Universal Insurance (UVE) has shown some notable activity and analyst sentiment. 1. 1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Performance. Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc. reported strong third-quarter 2025 earnings, with adjusted diluted earnings per common share rising to $1.36 compared to an adjusted loss of $0.73 in the prior year quarter. This was driven by a lower net loss ratio and increases in net premiums earned, net investment income, and commission revenue. Core revenue for Q3 2025 grew by 4.9% year-over-year to $400 million, and the net combined ratio improved significantly to 96.4%, a decrease of 20.5 points from the previous year. 2. 2. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Increases. Analysts have a consensus "Strong Buy" rating for UVE based on recent reports. The average stock forecast for UVE in the next 12 months is $35.70, representing an upside of 7.05% from current prices, with a range of $35.35 to $36.75. One analyst recently increased Universal Insurance Holdings' price target by 20.69% to $35.70. 3.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| UVE Return | -44% | 18% | -34% | 58% | 37% | 58% | 52% |
| Peers Return | 4% | 27% | 11% | 16% | 31% | 12% | 151% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| UVE Win Rate | 33% | 58% | 50% | 58% | 67% | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 57% | 53% | 62% | 68% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| UVE Max Drawdown | -59% | -14% | -48% | -3% | -0% | -10% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -6% | -11% | -14% | -1% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HIG, FNF, PGR, CB, TRV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | UVE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -56.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 127.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 195 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -60.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 152.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1678 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -51.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 106.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -81.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 450.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1872 days | 1480 days |
Compare to HIG, FNF, PGR, CB, TRV
In The Past
Universal Insurance's stock fell -56.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/13/2022. A -56.0% loss requires a 127.1% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to UVE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
| 10312018 | UVE | Universal Insurance | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -27.8% | -33.9% | -41.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
| 10312018 | UVE | Universal Insurance | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -27.8% | -33.9% | -41.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Universal Insurance
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 180.11 |
| Mkt Cap | 50.5 |
| Rev LTM | 38,050 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 8,356 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 7,466 |
| CFO LTM | 8,428 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 7,535 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 21.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 50.5 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| P/EBIT | 8.3 |
| P/E | 11.1 |
| P/CFO | 6.3 |
| Total Yield | 10.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 16.5% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 5.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 7.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 75.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -7.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 3.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7302024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10302023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7312023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7292022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5022022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |